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Joining the Dots JOINING THE DOTS Midsummer Retail Report 2018 EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2018 MIDSUMMER KEY POINTS “THE FINDINGS CONFOUNDED WHAT THE SHOPPERS WANT A LOT OF THE STEREOTYPICAL ● When a market becomes as dislocated as UK retail property ● The growing proportion of people who do their food shopping currently is, you have to look beyond the standard property online is “a major headache for the supermarket operators” ATTITUDES WE HAVE ABOUT metrics to see what is happening. because at present it is not a profit-making area of their business. SHOPPERS OF DIFFERENT ● This year’s Midsummer Retail Report, Colliers commissioned YouGov ● At present, 26% of over 45s buy groceries online but this jumps to canvass the views of 3,000 shoppers from across an ’18-80’ to 42% among 35-44 year-olds. GENERATIONS” generational spread. ● The dominant supermarket operators may also face new ● The findings confounded a lot of the stereotypical attitudes competition. Of the 18-34 year-olds canvassed, 54% said they we have about shoppers of different generations. found the prospect of sourcing their food shopping through Amazon Prime attractive. ● For example, whilst young people may be characterised as all avidly shopping online, the research showed them to be some ● The survey asked shoppers if they would pay more for goods of the strongest supporters of the town centre shopping experience. that had validated ethical credentials and/or a clear product provenance. This produced the starkest generational split in ● 78% of 18-24 year-olds named the town centre – as their responses. Among the 18-34 year-old group, 64% said they favoured shopping environment – well ahead of the 55% would be prepared to pay more for these credentials but that of over-45s who said likewise. proportion falls to 47% among the over-45s. EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE MARKET “OUR FORECASTS FOR THIS Retail Capital Markets YEAR’S TOTAL RETURNS ON Rents and Vacancy ● The shopping centre market has had a very mixed year with major ● Average prime rents across a sample of more than 400 UK deals being interspersed with a collapse in value of some assets. RETAIL PROPERTY ARE MUTED” locations has grown by 0.8% – half the rate of growth recorded in our last report. ● However, we believe there can be good opportunities for those investors committed to long-term asset enhancement of shopping centres. ● The underlying rate of fall in rents is most likely to be more ● UK institutions doubled their year-on-year investment into the acute than this indicates. supermarket sector. However, only flawless assets are commanding the prime yields and only the institutions can afford them. ● The pace at which rents are softening will quicken through to the end of the year while the descent steepens. ● Second tier assets are starting to feel the effects of more general retail uncertainty, reflected in a slight drift in yields. ● Average prime unit vacancy is a similar story. Across the 15 cities that we monitor, the average number of prime retail units which ● High Streets may continue to struggle but there are buyers for are standing empty is 13.3% of stock. well-let, well-located shops at re-based rents. The market is still alive and interestingly, the yield profile is robustly sharp. ● This is a marginal year-on-year increase, but has not yet been impacted by the recent spate of CVAs and retailer administrations. ● Demand for the logistics facilities which serve online retail fulfilment from fashion to food continues to power ahead, but there is some caution ● In affluent areas across the South, many DIY and garden centre about how much headroom there is for occupiers to pay progressive uses are being forced out by the demand for residential development. rents – especially as the growth in online retailing is now slowing. ● Our forecasts for this year’s total returns on retail property are muted. ● Too many retailers have failed for years to adapt their offer, while others have been financially structured in a way that has severely ● In 2017, the return for All-Retail property as measured by MSCI impaired their prospects for survival. was 6.9%. By the end of this year, we expect this to drop to 1.6%. EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BIG TROUBLE NEEDS BIG DATA THE IMPACT OF CVAs “THE APPLICATION OF BIG DATA STRATEGIES IS ESSENTIAL IN THE ● An increasing number of retailers, landlords and investors are ● Some retailers who are clearly not at risk of imminent failure are using a profitability analysis approach to determine strategy. now using CVAs opportunistically to free themselves from leases NEW RETAIL ENVIRONMENT” on underperforming stores. ● This approach should be extended by the application of ‘Big Data’ which shows how consumers are operating in the physical retail world. ● This is not what the CVA tool was intended for and it needs to be addressed. ● Colliers Retail Strategy team use anonymised, aggregated and secure transaction data from more than 2bn credit cards, to create ● There are many aspects of the CVA process that need reform a granular view of spending patterns that provides a credible and this should include: base to compare locations. – Only those creditors directly affected by a CVA should have ● Mobile data from the major network operators can also be leveraged a vote. A property-focussed CVA should be voted on only by to understand crowd behaviour and visitor profile in a location. property owners. ● The Colliers Supermarket Vitality Index leverages over 20 metrics – There should be minimum standards of information provided to assess the current health and future prospects for more than with a CVA. 6,000 UK supermarkets. – Greater rights for landlords to take stores back after a CVA. The single six-month window typical to many CVAs is not ● The application of Big Data strategies is essential in the new sufficient and not well balanced compared to the tenants’ retail environment. much longer break option windows and rent reductions. EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “THE SECTOR IS ONLY PART A NEW WAY FORWARD? WAY THROUGH A PAINFUL AND ● The property industry now needs to contemplate a radical reshaping of the lease model for much of our retail property. RADICAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE ● We believe there should be a shift – particularly in some – HOW WE ALL RESPOND NEEDS shopping centre environments – towards a leasing model which features: TO BE EQUALLY RADICAL AND INNOVATIVE” – Five-year leases granted outside of the Landlord & Tenant Act. – Turnover linked rents. – Mutual breaks linked to turnover thresholds. – ‘White box’ unit specification. – Limited incentives. ● The sector is only part way through a painful and radical structural change – how we all respond needs to be equally radical and innovative. EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > INTRODUCTION EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > INTRODUCTION FINDING DIRECTION The theme for this year’s report is ‘Joining the Dots’ because when a market becomes as dislocated as ours has in the past few months, you have to look beyond the usual property metrics to see what is happening. In terms of the usual headline stats – rents, vacancy and returns VACANCY – the trends cannot be extrapolated forward in the normal way. Vacancy is a similar story. Across the 15 cities that we monitor, AVERAGE PRIME RENTS the average number of prime retail units which are standing empty is now 13.3% of stock. When we reported last year, prime rents across a sample of more than 400 UK locations had grown, on average, by 1.6% – the best This is a marginal year-on-year increase, but has not yet been performance since 2008. impacted by the spate of CVAs that we have seen. This year that growth has halved to 0.8%, but the underlying trend WHO’S TO BLAME FOR THE MESS? behind that is far more acute. The pace at which rents are softening MARK PHILLIPSON will quicken through to the end of the year while the descent steepens. It’s clear that business rate increases, minimum wage, Brexit uncertainty Head of UK Retail Group and the general economic environment have helped create a ‘perfect It is inevitable that by this time next year, annual growth will again storm’ which is wrecking a growing number of retail businesses. go negative. Indeed, if you remove Central London from the picture, UK average prime rents have fallen by -0.7% since our last report. However, the blame cannot be laid entirely at the door of external forces. EXECUTIVE YOUGOV CVAs AND RETAIL CAPITAL REGIONAL INTRODUCTION OUT OF TOWN CENTRAL LONDON BIG DATA CONTACTS SUMMARY RESEARCH LEASE REFORM MARKETS UPDATES < > INTRODUCTION Too many retailers have failed for years to adapt their offer, while others TOTAL RETURN FORECASTS 2018 YEAR-END have been financially structured in a way that has severely impaired their prospects for survival. The increasingly controversial use by retailers and F&B operators of Company Voluntary Agreements (CVAs) DEC – 17 DEC – 18 is also a major contributory factor and one which needs to be addressed.
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