Natural Gas in India: an Analysis of Policy*

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Natural Gas in India: an Analysis of Policy* Natural Gas in India: An Analysis of Policy* Anil Jain and Anupama Sen NG 50 April 2011 * This working paper is based on some of the material in, Anil Jain, Natural Gas in India: Liberalisation and Policy, forthcoming, Oxford University Press, 2011. i The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2011 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-907555-25-1 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................... v APPROXIMATE CONVERSION FACTORS .............................................................................. vi 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Energy in the Indian Economy ..................................................................................................... 4 3. Political Economy and the Development of the Hydrocarbons Sector ..................................... 8 4. Supply and Demand ..................................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Domestic Supply ...................................................................................................................... 12 4.2 Domestic Demand .................................................................................................................... 15 4.2.1 Sector Demand ................................................................................................................... 16 4.3 Need for Imports ...................................................................................................................... 19 4.4 Supply and Demand: Summary of Analysis ............................................................................ 21 5. Gas Utilisation Policy ................................................................................................................... 24 5.1 The Origins of Gas Allocation in India .................................................................................... 24 5.2 The NELP Production Sharing Contract .................................................................................. 26 5.3 The Revival of Gas Allocation under NELP ............................................................................ 27 5.4 Reconciling the Conceptual Conflict within NELP: Policy Provisions ................................... 30 5.5 Gas Utilisation Policy and Pipeline Infrastructure ................................................................... 32 5.6 Gas Utilisation Policy: Summary of Observations................................................................... 35 6. Pricing ........................................................................................................................................... 37 6.1 Pricing Regimes in the Indian Gas Sector ................................................................................ 37 6.1.1 Pricing under the APM and Discovered Fields Regime .................................................... 38 6.1.2 Pricing of LNG .................................................................................................................. 39 6.1.3 Pricing of NELP Gas ......................................................................................................... 39 6.2 Pricing in the Fertilisers Sector ................................................................................................ 42 6.3 Pricing in the Power Sector ...................................................................................................... 47 6.3.1 Power Sector Reforms ....................................................................................................... 49 6.3.2 The Competitiveness of Gas-Based Power ........................................................................ 50 6.4 Pricing in the City Gas Sector .................................................................................................. 53 7. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 56 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................................ 63 Books .............................................................................................................................................. 63 Government Reports....................................................................................................................... 63 Other Reports ................................................................................................................................. 64 Press Releases and Newspaper Articles ......................................................................................... 65 Websites ......................................................................................................................................... 65 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Primary Energy Mix, 2009 .................................................................................................... 5 Table 2: Share of Fuel in Total Installed Power Generation Capacity, 2010 ...................................... 5 Table 3: Percentage of Energy Use Met by Domestic Production ...................................................... 6 Table 4: Domestic Supply in 2012 (in mmscmd) .............................................................................. 14 Table 5: Status of Discoveries under NELP (1 April 2009) .............................................................. 15 Table 6: Demand Forecasts for Gas in India (in mmscmd) ............................................................... 16 Table 7: Total and Gas-based Captive Capacity ................................................................................ 17 Table 8: Demand for Gas by Consumer Sector – Eleventh Five Year Plan (in mmscmd) ................ 19 Table 9: LNG Supply Forecasts, 2012 ............................................................................................... 20 Table 10: LNG Supply by Terminal, 2012 ........................................................................................ 20 Table 11: Gas Consumption by Sector, 2008 (in mmscmd) .............................................................. 25 iii Table 12: Gas Utilisation Policy for NELP D-6 Gas ......................................................................... 28 Table 13: Allocation of NELP D-6 Gas (in mmscmd) ...................................................................... 29 Table 14: Regional Composition of (Net) APM Gas Production in 2009 (in mmscmd)................... 33 Table 15: Regional Distribution of Gas-Based Demand for Power ................................................... 33 Table 16: Existing and Proposed Gas Pipelines (in km) .................................................................... 34 Table 17: Prevailing Gas Prices in India, 2010 .................................................................................. 37 Table 18: Pricing of APM Gas to Consumers prior to Gas Price Increase (US$/mmbtu) ................ 38 Table 19: Urea Prices, Imports, and Subsidies, 2003–09 .................................................................. 45 Table 20: Volume of Electricity Traded by Price, 2007 .................................................................... 51 Table 21: Maximum and Minimum Average Rates of Electricity, 2007........................................... 52 Table 22: Cost of Generating Power from Different Fuels ................................................................ 53 Table 23: Price of Compressed Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas by Consumer Sector ......... 54 Table 24: Price Comparison of Piped Natural Gas and Liquefied Petroleum Gas in the Household Sector ................................................................................................................................................. 54 Table 25: Fuel Cost Comparison in the Transport Sector .................................................................. 55 LIST OF FIGURES Figure1: Production and Consumption of Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas, 1989–2009 ............................ 4 Figure 2: Indian Energy Prices versus International Benchmarks ....................................................... 7 Figure 3: Gas Production by Producer Category (in mmscmd) ......................................................... 13 Figure 4: Composition of Gas Demand for Power (2014–15) in mmscmd ....................................... 17 Figure 5: Demand for Gas in Urea, 2012 (mmscmd) ........................................................................ 18 Figure 6: (Net) Production of Gas in India by Producer Category, 2001–09 (in mmscmd) .............. 21 Figure 7: International Price of Urea, 2008–09 (US$ per Metric Tonne).........................................
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