BUSINESS Manchester Football Gifts from the Kitchen Accused Man Had Greatest of Years Can Sweeten Christmas Gets 4% Years Forecast for 1984: ‘Year of the Yawn’
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ai - MANC'HKSTKK HKHAl.I). Tiii'sda.v. Nov. 2«). Hl«:i BUSINESS Manchester football Gifts from the kitchen Accused man had greatest of years can sweeten Christmas gets 4% years Forecast for 1984: ‘Year of the yawn’ ... page 10 ... page 13 ... page 3 The recently reported booming third-quarter profit per.sonal income was up 1.2 percent in October — but long-term corporate bonds fall in the same period showing of Corporate America — a sizzling gain of overall consumer spending for the month rose only 0.5 from its current 12V< percent to 10Y< percent. over 28 percent in pre-tax profits — will undoubtedly percent. This suggests consumers are already at work fire up the enthusiasm of the nation's economists, And to replace their depleted savings — which Jones BUT N EITH E R is possible, Jones reiterates, so the '84 economic forecasts you'll be bombarded Dan Dorfman estimates are now around 5'/i percent. because government borrowings will be too great. with over the next five to six weeks are likely to carry And so his scenario for suggesting a reversal of '83 economic strength to '84 economic weakness. Manchester, Conn. a rosier glow to them on the theory that the economy 's Syndicated FORECASTS on the course of interest rates run all Partly cloudy tonight; got a lot more muscle than originally thought. over the lot — but the consensus is they're are headed Against this background, though, there is a piece of Wednesday. Nov. 30, 1983 A dissenting voice — and a respected one is David Columnist lower. One of the chief arguments is that growing good news, says Jones. Inflation will stay low because partly sunny Thursday Jones, the 45-year-old chief economist of Aubry G. profits will help foot the corporate bill for new plants ofa weak recovery, a tougher corporate stand against Single copy: 254 ■ - Lanston & Co., a New' York dealer in government dnd equipment. And so less business borrowing will wage demands and a weak worldwide recovery — See page 2 securities. take the pressure off rates — ruling out a clash for (which hurts our exports) because there'll be very fHanrh^Btrr Mr ralJi His view: It'll be a ho-hum '84 — an economic funds between Uncle Sam and the corporate world. little money available to help finance the growth of the non-event. Jones doesn't see it this way. He figures rates will less-developed countries. His chief reasons; safe haven for frightened foreign capital. drop a bit in the Rrst half — about a percent (or 100 A big question: Who’s to say Fed chairman Paul • The consumer (two-thirds of the economy) has basis points) — in the face of a slowing economy. But Voicker won’t ease up on the money supply again to shot his wad. NOW TO JONES’S reasoning. then he sees them going back up to about where they ensure a more robust economic recovery in '84 than • Interest rates, contrary to general expectations, A practicing economist for 20 years — he's held are now by year-end in the face of heavy government Jones suggests? will remain high — around current levels — for all of positions in this context at both the Federal Reserve in borrowings to finance the big budget deficit (he sees it Because, he replies, Vocker wants to be remem '84. New York and Irving Trust — Jones figures we're in about $190 billion for fiscal '84.) bered as the man who won the fight against inflation; Shuttte crew keeps busy Inmate executed The implications of all of this, as Jones sees it: for a peppy economy for the balance of '83. "That's where I separate from the rest of the he wants four to five years of moderate growth rather • Unemployment, now at 8.8 percent, will head But then he sees the consumer running out of gas. crowd," Jones tells me; "the government won't get .than one or two years of boom, followed by a bust. And back up to about 9 percent, creating a jobless force of The consumer held off buying during the recession, out of the way." this means a generally restrictive money supply in abopt.lO million. creating pent-up demand for things like autos, homes A budget deficit normally declines in an economic '84. • It will be tough to get a good raise, as '84 wage and appliances. And so in '83 he went on a buying recovery and makes room for private borrowing — If there are any doubters, Jones says, all they have testing various materiats gains figure.to run a puny 5 percent. spree, aided, explains Jones, by a period of easier but not this time, says Jones. The chief reasons: The to do is look at the tightening of the money supply • The stock market won't be any great shakes next credit from the Federal Reserve and tax cuts. Reagan tax cuts, which, in effect, lowers government between last May and July. It was the ealiest such after appeal fails year, with the Dow — at its highest level — hovering But even with it all. the consumer had to dig deeply reserves, and rising defense spending. And that action on the part of a Fed chairman in thisstageof an SPACE CENTER, Houston around the 1,250-1,350 range. into his savings to^atisfy his demands — shrinking his means that business won't take Hsks at high rates. economic recovery . and it shows Voicker has the (U PI) — Spacelab scientists • The housing market will be a dud in '84 — a savings rate, as a percentage of income, to a low 4'A To reach 5.3 percent, he says, you’d have to see the guts to be tough. switched today from grueling reflection of continuing high interest rates. percent this past September. (The normal savings prime rate (the bank's best lending rate to its most Our man, Jones, it should be emphasized, isn’t space sickness experiments to Bv J. Paul W yatt row longer than any other inmate • Gold will continue to fall in price. It'll be the rate is 6‘A percent.) ■” creditworthy customers) drop to 9 percent between predieting any disaster next year — but a year that mixing, cooling and welding United Press International in the nation, met with Engle, one victim of a double whammy: low inflation and its Jones says signs are cropping up that 'the consumer this December and next December (the current rate will fail to live up to general expections. glass and metals in tests that of his lawyers, three Catholic replacement by the dollar (because of high rates) as a has already done his thing." Example: Consumer is 11 percent). And you'd have to see the rate on Call it, he says, "the year of the yawn." could revolutionize the electron STARKE, Fla. - Murderer priests and a friend in a prison ics and computer industries. Robert A. Sullivan, at "peace with visiting area Tuesday night. The Since liftoff Monday of the himself" after 10 years on death group talked for four hours, shuttle Columbia and the $1 row, was executed in Florida's spending much of the time praying billion space station nestled in electric chair today despite a rare and reading the Bible. Cabbage Patch Kids catching chartered fiights from Orient the ship’s cargo bay, the record plea for mercy from Pope John “ It was an upbeat scene,” Engle six-man crew has been undergo Paul II. said. “ It was a loving thing WEST HARTFORD (UPI) — to keep up with demand. Wethersfield woman, whose ing a rigorous series of drops, Sullivan, who had spent more between people who care about Coleco Industries has been "inun The consumer stampedes at daughter got hold of two dolls,-but spins and electric shocks to time on death row than any inmate each other.” dated" with telephone calls about department stores around the one was knocked from her hand, study the relationship between in the country , was put to death in One of the priests, Robert Boyle, the Cabbage Patch Kids dolls and country for the dolls are "unfortu the woman said. the delicate inner ear balancing the three-legged oaken electric remained with Sullivan, praying, forced to charter flighf s of the dolls nate," Ms. Wruck said. Hundreds of people in Augusta. system and space motion chair that has now killed 198 through the night. from the Orient and step up "It's incongruous that the Cab Maine, battled in the aisles of a siekness. inmates. Sullivan’s last chance for a stay production to meet the "frantic” bage Patch Kids that have been department store Sunday for one of Today, the third day of the He became the ninth person was in the federal courts Tuesday. consumer demand, a company designed to elicit warmth, feelings the too dolls. longest, busiest and most ex executed in the United States and A majority of the 12 judges of the spokeswoman said. of love and affection could be "They weren’t acting like adults. pensive space science mission the second in Florida since the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals "W e are simply inundated with associated with the extreme be They were acting like crazed to date, the focus shifted to the Supreme Court lifted its ban on in Atlanta voted against the stay as calls daily from consumers and the havior that has been exhibited, " maniacs." said Margaret Cote, of materials seience and atmos capital punishment in 1976. did the Supreme Court. news media," Coleco spokeswo she said.