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Lebanon’s Second Republic Copyright 2002 by Kail C. Ellis. This work is licensed under a modified Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/. You are free to electroni- cally copy, distribute, and transmit this work if you attribute author- ship. However, all printing rights are reserved by the University Press of Florida (http://www.upf.com). Please contact UPF for information about how to obtain copies of the work for print distribution. You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the license terms of this work. Any of the above conditions can be waived if you get permission from the University Press of Florida. Nothing in this license impairs or restricts the author’s moral rights. Florida A&M University, Tallahassee Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton Florida Gulf Coast University, Ft. Myers Florida International University, Miami Florida State University, Tallahassee University of Central Florida, Orlando University of Florida, Gainesville University of North Florida, Jacksonville University of South Florida, Tampa University of West Florida, Pensacola Lebanon’s Second Republic Prospects for the Twenty-first Century Edited by Kail C. Ellis University Press of Florida Gainesville · Tallahassee · Tampa · Boca Raton Pensacola · Orlando · Miami · Jacksonville · Ft. Myers Copyright 2002 by Kail C. Ellis Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper All rights reserved 07 06 05 04 03 02 6 5 4 3 2 1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lebanon’s second republic: prospects for the twenty-first century / edited by Kail C. Ellis. p. cm. Based on a seminar held at Villanova University, Villanova, Pa., 1998, jointly sponsored by the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of Villanova University and the Lebanese American University. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8130-2539-7 (alk. paper) 1. Lebanon—Politics and government—1990—Congresses. I. Ellis, Kail C. II. Villanova University. Center for Arab and Islamic studies. III. Jami’ah al Lubnaniyah al-Amirikiyah. DS87.54 .L418 2002 956.9204’4—dc21 2002018077 The University Press of Florida is the scholarly publishing agency for the State University System of Florida, comprising Florida A&M University, Florida Atlantic University, Florida Gulf Coast University, Florida International University, Florida State University, University of Central Florida, University of Florida, University of North Florida, University of South Florida, and University of West Florida. University Press of Florida 15 Northwest 15th Street Gainesville, FL 32611–2079 http://www.upf.com Contents List of Tables vii Preface ix Lebanon’s Challenge: Reclaiming Memory and Independence 1 Kail C. Ellis Overview: Lebanon as an Experiment in Multicultural Inter- dependence 14 Hafeez Malik Part I. Lebanon and the Middle East Peace Process 1. The Regional Struggle for Lebanon 25 Kail C. Ellis 2. Israeli-Lebanese Relations: A Future Imperfect? 52 Kirsten E. Schulze 3. The Dilemma of the Palestinians in Lebanon 78 Julie Peteet 4. U.S. Policy toward Lebanon 91 Kail C. Ellis Part II. Religion, Culture, and Gender 5. Muslim-Christian Relations in Lebanon: A Christian Perspective 117 Paul Nabil Sayah 6. Religion and Politics: The Case of Lebanon 133 Mohammad Sammak 7. Lebanon as a Regional Educational and Cultural Center 140 Nabeel F. Haidar 8. Women in Postwar Lebanon 146 Mona Chemali Khalaf Part III. Problems of Urbanization, Ecology, and the Economy 9. The Emerging Urban Landscape of Lebanon 159 Michael F. Davie 10. The Ecological Crisis in Lebanon 175 Fouad Hamdan 11. The Lebanese Economy in the Twenty-first Century 188 Wassim N. Shahin Epilogue 206 Kail C. Ellis Appendix 223 Contributors 225 Index 227 Tables 8.1. Enrollment of women in the Lebanese labor force by marital status 149 8.2. Distribution of women in the Lebanese labor force by level of edu- cation 150 11.1. Lebanon’s Horizon 2000 plan: Underlying assumptions 190 11.2. A comparison between Lebanon’s actual indicators and Horizon 2000 plan assumptions 191 11.3. Other major economic indicators in Lebanon 193 11.4. Weighted average yield on treasury bills and lending rates, Lebanon, 1992–1997 195 11.5. Business polls in Lebanon: Industry and commerce 196 11.6. Pre- and post-reform marginal income tax rates in OECD member countries, 1990 199 11.7. Convergence criteria for a possible Arab Economic and Monetary Union (AEMU) 203 Preface On 2–3 October 1998, a seminar was held at Villanova University, Villanova, Pennsylvania, titled “Lebanon in the Twenty-first Century.” Jointly sponsored by the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of Villanova University and the Lebanese American University, the seminar featured presentations and discussions by noted national and international schol- ars, diplomats, and others interested in Lebanon. Works on contemporary Lebanon are hardly an anomaly. Since the beginning of Lebanon’s civil war in 1975, Lebanon’s sectarian politics and its relationships with the Palestinians and its neighbors, Israel and Syria, have been the subject of many outstanding studies. With the arrival of peace in the 1990s, numerous excellent books have analyzed Lebanon’s prospects for reconciliation and reconstruction. Lebanon’s contemporary history has been so thoroughly explored that recent scholarship has re- turned to probing the important lessons offered by Great Power rivalry and the turbulent history of sectarian nationalism in nineteenth-century Mount Lebanon under the Ottomans. This volume includes discussion of contemporary politics and interna- tional relations, recognizing Lebanon’s central role in regional conflicts. It then looks at other forces that will determine Lebanon’s future. The book features chapters that argue that Lebanon’s future is very much dependent on the progress of Muslim-Christian relations, on the viability of its edu- cational system (that will enable its citizens to contribute to its economic development), and on the way that the concerns of women, urban plan- ning, and the ecological crises are being addressed. The analysis of these topics will be of interest to scholars of women’s issues, urban studies, and the environmental movement, as well as to specialists of the region. Many people helped to make this volume possible and I am grateful for their support. In particular I wish to acknowledge Interstate Resources, which generously provided financial assistance toward the expenses of the seminar. I am also grateful to Father Edmund J. Dobbin, O.S.A., president x | Preface of Villanova University, for his long-time support for the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies; he graciously attended the banquet and welcomed the participants and guests. The participation of Mr. Mohamad Chatah, Lebanon’s ambassador to the United States at the time, and Mr. John Kelly, former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, is also gratefully acknowl- edged. Both of these individuals gave addresses and contributed greatly to the discussions. I am also indebted to Nabeel Haidar of the Lebanese American Univer- sity in Lebanon, who arranged for his university’s cosponsorship and who collaborated with me in planning the seminar, Antoine Frem, who pro- vided generous financial assistance, and Michael Hudson, James Bill, Edmund Ghareeb, and Barbara Stowasser, all of whom have provided invaluable advice and assistance. I am also grateful for the assistance of my colleagues at Villanova. In particular, I would like to thank Hafeez Malik, who has provided support and encouragement in difficult situa- tions, and Helen Lafferty and Louise Fitzpatrick, who were always ready to lend a helping hand and give moral support. In addition, Kathryn Johnson, my secretary, handled the logistics for the seminar with her usual efficiency and skill, Maureen Cavanaugh helped with the travel arrange- ments, and Angèle M. Ellis and Carolyn Lea provided excellent technical support in editing and proofreading the manuscript. I am very grateful for their assistance. I would also like to acknowledge Jouhaina Hobeiche, who has given me a home from which to observe events in Lebanon, and Toufic Traad Kmeid and Angèle Hobeiche Kmeid, whose wisdom and love for Lebanon provided the inspiration for this work and much more. Lebanon’s Challenge Reclaiming Memory and Independence Kail C. Ellis In the fall of 1990, Lebanon’s fifteen-year nightmare of civil conflict and foreign invasions seemed to be coming to an end. Most of the surviving members of the 1972 Lebanese Parliament had been summoned to Taif in October 1989 to craft a new constitutional arrangement, the Document of National Reconciliation. Included in the Taif Agreement was a recommit- ment to political confessionalism, with certain adjustments. When the agreement was approved by the Lebanese Parliament with amendments on 21 August 1990,1 many Lebanese hoped it would signify Lebanon’s renewal, its “second republic.” Others, however, viewed the document as a more conservative version of the National Pact of 1943, for despite its emphasis on national unity, it enshrined Lebanon’s traditional confes- sional political system, which divides power among the country’s religious communities. Moreover, in the view of many Lebanese, the agreement codified Syrian hegemony over Lebanon. The constitutional authority that was established by the Taif Agreement could not be fully imple- mented until October 1990, when Syrian forces were finally able to de- pose the rival government of General Michel Aoun, who had tried to build unity among Lebanese by blaming outside forces for Lebanon’s misery. From this unsettled beginning, political and economic life resumed in Lebanon, but much unfinished business remained. Lebanon needed to address the ongoing political, social, economic, and religious problems that led to the war, the instability of its southern border with Israel after the withdrawal of Israeli troops in May 2000, and the onerous presence of 35,000–40,000 Syrian peacekeepers.