Rural Tourism Package: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

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Rural Tourism Package: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Rural Tourism Package: Monitoring and evaluation framework Prepared for: Limitations URS Infrastructure & Environment UK Limited (“URS”) has prepared this Report for the sole use of Defra (“Client”) in accordance with the Agreement under which our services were performed (tender reference RE0272, October 2013). No other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this Report or any other services provided by URS. This Report is confidential and may not be disclosed by the Client nor relied upon by any other party without the prior and express written agreement of URS. The conclusions and recommendations contained in this Report are based upon information provided by others and upon the assumption that all relevant information has been provided by those parties from whom it has been requested and that such information is accurate. Information obtained by URS has not been independently verified by URS, unless otherwise stated in the Report. The methodology adopted and the sources of information used by URS in providing its services are outlined in this Report. The work described in this Report was undertaken between December 2013 and May 2014 and is based on the conditions encountered and the information available during the said period of time. The scope of this Report and the services are accordingly factually limited by these circumstances. Where assessments of works or costs identified in this Report are made, such assessments are based upon the information available at the time and where appropriate are subject to further investigations or information which may become available. URS disclaim any undertaking or obligation to advise any person of any change in any matter affecting the Report, which may come or be brought to URS’ attention after the date of the Report. Certain statements made in the Report that are not historical facts may constitute estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements and even though they are based on reasonable assumptions as of the date of the Report, such forward-looking statements by their nature involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results predicted. URS specifically does not guarantee or warrant any estimate or projections contained in this Report. Copyright © This Report is the copyright of URS Infrastructure & Environment UK Limited. Any unauthorised reproduction or usage by any person other than the addressee is strictly prohibited. Rev Date Details Prepared by Checked by Approved by Claire Lawless, Claire Lawless, May Final monitoring and Gareth Brown, 1 Technical Technical 2014 evaluation framework Senior Consultant Director Director PR-13-0514 URS Infrastructure & Environment UK Limited Bridgewater House 58-60 Whitworth Street Manchester M1 6LT Tel: +44 (0)161 237 6056 Fax: +44 (0)161 907 3501 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS 5 2. INTRODUCTION 6 3. STRATEGIC DRIVERS 8 4. RURAL TOURISM BASELINE 13 5. THE RURAL TOURISM PACKAGE 26 6. MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK 32 7. DELIVERY 41 8. LESSONS 43 APPENDIX A RURAL TOURISM PROJECT LOGIC CHAINS 45 APPENDIX B PROPOSED OUTPUTS, OUTCOMES AND IMAPCTS 50 APPENDIX C PROPOSED EVALUATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS 59 APPENDIX D INTENDED AUDIENCE FOR THE RURAL TOURISM PACKAGE EVALUATION 60 APPENDIX E TOURISM DEFINITION – SIC2007 FOOTPRINT 62 APPENDIX F SWOT ANALYSIS OF RURAL TOURISM 63 Rural Tourism Package: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework 3 TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: NATIONAL POLICY DRIVERS FOR RURAL TOURISM PACKAGE 9 FIGURE 2: TOTAL EXPENDITURE FROM DOMESTIC OVERNIGHT TRIPS TO RURAL AREAS 2006-12 16 FIGURE 3: TOURISM EMPLOYMENT IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS 21 FIGURE 4: TOURISM BUSINESSES IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS, 2009-2013 22 FIGURE 5: % OF BUSINESSES AND EMPLOYMENT WITHIN AONBS AND NATIONAL PARKS 23 FIGURE 6: METHOD FOR MEASURING NET IMPACT 36 FIGURE 7: RTP THEORY OF CHANGE 37 FIGURE 8: NET IMPACT FORMULA 39 TABLE OF TABLES TABLE 1: DATA SOURCES AND DEFINITIONS 14 TABLE 2: DOMESTIC RURAL TOURISM TRIPS AND ASSOCIATED SPENDING, 2011 14 TABLE 3: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL VISITS, NIGHTS AND SPEND IN RURAL ENGLAND, 2010 14 TABLE 4: DOMESTIC URBAN TOURISM TRIPS AND ASSOCIATED SPENDING 2011 15 TABLE 5: TREND IN DOMESTIC OVERNIGHT TRIPS TO RURAL ENGLAND 15 TABLE 6: TOTAL NIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT TRIPS TO RURAL AREAS 16 TABLE 7: TOURISM DAY TRIPS, 3+ HOUR LEISURE TRIPS TO RURAL AREAS 17 TABLE 8: THE MAIN LOCATION OF TRIPS (‘000’S) RECORDED BY MENE, 2011-2012 17 TABLE 9: THE MAIN LOCATION OF TRIPS RECORDED BY MENE, ‘000’S 18 TABLE 10: SPENDING ASSOCIATED WITH TRIPS TO THE COUNTRYSIDE RECORDED BY MENE 18 TABLE 11: TRIPS TO AONBS (‘000’S) 19 TABLE 12: EXPENDITURE ASSOCIATED WITH TRIPS TO AONBS (£’000’S) 19 TABLE 13: RURAL TOURISM GVA – DEMAND SIDE ASSESSMENT, 2011 20 TABLE 14: RURAL TOURISM EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESSES ACTIVITY IN ENGLAND BY SUB-SECTOR, 2011 21 TABLE 15: RURAL TOURISM TURNOVER ACTIVITY IN ENGLAND BY SUB-SECTOR, 2011 21 TABLE 16: RURAL TOURISM EMPLOYMENT IN ENGLAND BY SUB-SECTOR AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY SUB-SECTOR, 2009-2013 22 TABLE 17: RURAL TOURISM BUSINESSES IN ENGLAND BY SUB-SECTOR AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY SUB-SECTOR, 2009-2013 23 TABLE 18: TOURISM GVA (£ MILLIONS) IN RURAL AREAS AND ENGLAND 2001-2010 24 TABLE 19: SUMMARY OF RTP MEASURES 27 TABLE 20: TARGET GEOGRAPHY AND BENEFICIARIES 28 TABLE 21: AGREED FUNDING PROFILE 29 TABLE 22: PROPOSED OUTPUTS, OUTCOMES AND IMPACT INDICATORS 31 TABLE 23: METHOD OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES 32 TABLE 24: EVALUATION TYPES AND METHODS 34 TABLE 25: SUMMARY OF EVALUATION TYPE BY MEASURE 35 TABLE 26: SUGGESTED EVALUATION METHOD 35 TABLE 27: OPTIONS FOR COUNTERFACTUAL POSITIONS 37 TABLE 28: DELIVERY AGENTS AND PROJECT MANAGERS 42 4 1. Glossary of Abbreviations Abbreviation Description AONB Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty BIS Department for Business Innovation and Skills CBA Cost Benefit Analysis CEA Cost Effectiveness Analysis DCMS Department for Culture, Media and Sport DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DMO Destination Management Organisations GVA Gross Value Added MENE Monitoring Engagement with the Natural Environment PRoW Public Right of Way RDPE Rural Development Programme England REG Rural Economy Grant REGR Rural Economy Growth Review RGF Regional Growth Fund RTP Rural Tourism Package SME Small to Medium Enterprise VFR Visiting Friends and Relatives Rural Tourism Package: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework 5 2. Introduction 2.1 Background Defra commissioned URS Infrastructure and Environment UK Ltd (URS) in November 2013 to develop a baseline and monitoring and evaluation framework to measure the impact of five rural tourism measures identified under the Rural Economy Growth Review (REGR) known as the Rural Tourism Package (RTP). The RTP was announced in November 2011. It was designed in response to the Government’s wider Growth Review and recognising that tourism is a key sector that drives economic growth, particularly in rural areas. The RTP was designed to develop and promote rural tourism in England to stimulate growth in rural economies and help businesses reach their full potential. The RTP is part of the Government’s wider response and drive to maximise tourism’s contribution to the economy and the industry’s government backed aspiration to achieve 5% year on year growth in the value of the tourism sector up to 2020. This baseline and monitoring and evaluation framework has been designed to inform and guide future monitoring and final impact evaluation of the RTP. It outlines the evidence required to assess the effectiveness of the RTP measures and how the results will be used to inform future policy considerations. The monitoring and evaluation framework will also inform the work of a number of partner organisations such as VisitEngland; the National Association of AONBs; and the work of both Defra and DCMS in supporting and developing tourism, particularly in rural areas. 2.2 The requirement Defra commissioned URS to develop a baseline and monitoring and evaluation framework to measure the impact of the RTP. The objectives of this commission were to develop a practical and consistent approach to: • Assess the delivery and progress of the RTP; • Quantify the impacts and achievements of RTP in terms of: • Increased jobs in rural areas and an indication of the nature of those jobs; casual, part-time, permanent, apprenticeships; • New business start-ups and expansion of SMEs in rural areas; • Number of visits to rural areas and visitor spend both during peak holiday periods and out of season; 6 • Multiplier effects to rural businesses and the wider national economy; • Wider community benefits in rural areas e.g. improved viability of local services, preservation/development of heritage sites; • Key sectors which have benefited e.g. food and drink, agriculture, leisure industry, hotels and hospitality, business/conference venues; • The on-going sustainability of any trends in visitor numbers and visitor spend, including where visitors travel from and distance travelled; and • Environmental impacts such as reductions or increases in resource use (water, energy) that are associated with the measures. • Generating lessons and insights on what works to encourage rural tourism and growth. The monitoring and evaluation framework has been commissioned to develop a set of baseline indicators for the above outcomes and propose a methodology for data collection and evaluation with an assessment of possible evaluation methodologies. 2.3 Developing the monitoring and evaluation framework The monitoring and evaluation framework was developed in line with the HM Treasury Magenta Book, considering the following eight steps in turn: • Step 1: Defining policy objectives & intended outcomes; • Step 2: Defining the audience for the evaluation; • Step 3: Identifying evaluation objectives & research questions; • Step 4: Selecting evaluation approach; • Step 5: Identifying the data requirements; • Step 6: Identifying necessary resources and governance arrangements; • Step 7: Conducting the evaluation; and • Step 8: Using and disseminating the evaluation findings.
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