Final report for CTIA Global Race to 5G – update April 2019 David Abecassis, Janette Stewart, Chris Nickerson Ref: 2015448-103 . Contents 1 Executive summary 1 2 Introduction and context for the study 4 2.1 Summary of study objectives and approach 5 2.2 Structure of this report 6 3 Industry developments and 5G launches 8 3.1 5G trials and commercial launches 8 3.2 Standardization progress and devices 16 4 Spectrum releases for 5G 22 4.1 Overview of mobile spectrum currently assigned in benchmark countries 22 4.2 5G spectrum to be released in benchmark countries 29 5 National strategies and plans 41 5.1 National 5G strategies and government aid on 5G technology trials 41 5.2 Infrastructure policy 45 6 Comparison of 5G readiness across markets 54 6.1 Drivers of 5G readiness 54 6.2 5G readiness comparison 66 7 Conclusions 71 Annex A Abbreviations used in this report Annex B Country case studies Ref: 2015448-103 . Global Race to 5G – update Copyright © 2019. Analysys Mason Limited has produced the information contained herein for CTIA. The ownership, use and disclosure of this information are subject to the Commercial Terms contained in the contract between Analysys Mason Limited and CTIA. Analysys Mason Limited North West Wing, Bush House Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 [email protected] www.analysysmason.com Registered in England No. 5177472 Ref: 2015448-103 . Global Race to 5G – update | 1 1 Executive summary Since Analysys Mason’s first ‘Global Race to 5G’ report was published in April 2018, the pace of 5G developments has continued to be rapid. Several countries now have commercial 5G services in place (although limited to certain subscribers, or specific geographical areas initially). As we describe in this report, by 2020 we expect to see around 80 operators in more than 40 countries worldwide having made 5G services available to their subscribers. 5G device availability is expected to expand rapidly in the remainder of 2019. Operators are working with industrial partners to develop 5G services for specific industries, as well as offering 5G mobile broadband (offering faster speeds and quicker response times) to consumers. Key findings Our overall conclusion is that the countries ranked highest in our previous report are still positioned as 5G leaders in 2019. In the top tier of countries, the US has moved up to a tie with China as the leading nations in our ‘5G readiness’ assessment, scoring higher than other nations on most of our metrics. South Korea and Japan follow closely behind China and the US. The US rise in the ranking reflects determined moves by the US operators to follow through 5G commercialization commitments with the launch of 5G services in 2018, aided by significant infrastructure reforms (e.g. in relation to small-cell siting) in the past year and initial 5G spectrum auctions. However, there is still more to be done to ensure that the US retains its leading position, and we have found that a key short-term goal for the US to maintain its leading position is improving the availability of mid- band spectrum. The second and third tiers of countries that we reported on last time have expanded to include a larger number of countries in our latest report. Several European nations are leading the second tier and could overtake some of the countries in the leading tier (e.g. Japan) during 2019. The overall placing of countries is illustrated below. Figure 1.1: Overall 5G readiness scores [Source: Analysys Mason, 2019] Ref: 2015448-103 . Global Race to 5G – update | 2 Compared to the 2018 rankings, six countries have either maintained or improved their rankings, as shown below. Figure 1.2: Overall 5G readiness scores 2019, color coded by change in ranking1 since 2018 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2019] A summary of other conclusions from the study is as follows: Mid-band spectrum will Many of the planned 5G commercial launches referred to in our report be important for early 5G will use mid-band spectrum, particularly in the 3GHz band. Many of deployments and a the 5G devices becoming available in 2019 are expected to support this critical building block for frequency range. The US has previously lagged behind other nations in 5G services terms of the amount of mid-band spectrum being released for 5G use. Whilst there has been significant progress in the US on other important aspects of 5G launch, such as reform of infrastructure planning procedures (e.g. in relation to small-cell siting), there is still more to be done to ensure that the US retains its leading position through better availability of mid-band spectrum, which is a key short-term goal. Since the first edition of When our first report was published in 2018, we identified 5G pre- this report was published commercial trials being underway in the leading 5G markets. Since then, in 2018, the 5G market there has been rapid progress toward commercial deployment and service has continued to develop launch. The early commercial launches that we identified in last year’s rapidly, with many report have now occurred, and the 5G market is continuing to move rapidly operators preparing to from test/trials to large-scale pilots and commercial launches. Release 15- launch services and compatible RAN equipment is widely available and more 5G smartphones several launches already are expected to emerge during the second half of this year, which will allow announced consumers to use 5G networks from mobile devices. 1 This is the change in ranking within the group of eight countries that have been assessed in both the 2018 and 2019 reports. Ref: 2015448-103 . Global Race to 5G – update | 3 Actions being taken by Several case studies are identified in this report highlighting the national governments to importance of government policies to reduce or eliminate burdens on encourage 5G 5G deployment. In the US, federal and state policymakers have been deployment include instrumental in easing barriers to small-cell deployment. Examples of reform of siting policies approaches in other markets include China waiving the standard per- and license fees MHz fee for spectrum for 5G licenses in the initial years, and a focus on reducing barriers to mobile deployment in the UK. Enhanced mobile Early 5G services are predominantly eMBB and FWA; however, the broadband (eMBB) and service mix should increase as 5G evolves into the next phase of fixed wireless access specifications anticipated in 3GPP Release 16. Several operators have have emerged as the announced collaborations with vendors and industry players to test the initial 5G use cases use of 5G in different industrial sectors, as described in this report, and hence vertical uses are expected to remain an important element of 5G services, as networks become more sophisticated beyond initial launch. In some markets, there have been proposals to reserve specific spectrum for 5G industrial use, however there is a need for regulators to consider such schemes carefully, including whether they are applicable or appropriate to specific bands. Spectrum focus for 5G As identified in the first edition of this report, worldwide focus on 5G remains on the mid-band deployment has been on mid-band spectrum (mainly 3.4–4.2GHz), along frequencies and on mm- with selected bands above 24GHz. Each of these bands has been included wave bands in 3GPP Release 15 specifications, and 5G handset availability is expected to improve in 2019 both for 3.4–3.8GHz and 28GHz (with 26GHz following thereafter). The US is leading other nations with the award of mm-wave spectrum for 5G use and it is expected that other countries will follow this lead, pending the outcome of WRC-19 (where worldwide discussion on mm-wave spectrum for 5G will take place). Ref: 2015448-103 . Global Race to 5G – update | 4 2 Introduction and context for the study This report is the latest in a series of reports prepared by Analysys Mason on behalf of CTIA comparing spectrum and infrastructure policies and deployments in markets worldwide for the latest generation of mobile services, referred to as Fifth Generation, or 5G.2 The first ‘Global Race to 5G’ report that Analysys Mason prepared for CTIA was published in April 2018.3 This report provides an update to the 2018 report, based on new analysis taking account of 5G developments since the previous report was produced. Since the first edition of the ‘Global Race to 5G’ report was published in April 2018, there has been significant progress in 5G readiness – moving from 5G technology trials to deployment and commercial launch – with mobile operators in several world markets announcing 5G launches during the second half of 2018: South Korea, Qatar, Finland, Estonia, and the US. Many more operators are currently working on 5G deployment, ahead of further commercial launches being announced in 2019/2020. 5G launches have taken place so far in mid-band spectrum (e.g. 3.5GHz), and in high-band spectrum (e.g. 28GHz), with vendors having unveiled 5G equipment for these bands in 2018 ahead of equipment leveraging other bands becoming available during 2019. As we describe in the remainder of this report, by 2020 we expect to see around 80 operators in more than 40 countries worldwide having made 5G services available to their subscribers. At the time of producing this report, 5G services being launched are based on either home internet use or nomadic use via 5G routers, with some mobile 5G offerings. Most of the services being offered can be described as ‘enhanced mobile broadband’ (eMBB), offering higher speed mobile broadband services either for enterprise or consumer use.4 Several vendors have already announced the launch of 5G smartphones during 2019, and further launches are expected in the remainder of this year.5 2 CTIA is the leading trade association for the wireless industry in the US, representing companies reflecting all parts of the wireless ecosystem, including mobile network operators, equipment manufacturers, software providers, and other providers of products and services involved in the mobile wireless marketplace.