The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly
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THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Volume 8, No. 3 Autumn 2010 Turkmenistan THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 8, No. 3 Autumn 2010 Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Institute for Security and Development Policy The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Stockholm, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP). It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading center for research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. The China and Eurasia Forum is an independent forum which seeks to bring together regional experts, academics, government policy makers, and business leaders with an interest in the growing relationship between China and Eurasia. Focusing primarily on Sino-Central Asian, Sino-Russian, and Sino-Caucasian relations, the aim of the China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is to foster discussion and information sharing between a geographically distant community that recognizes the significance of China's emergence in this important part of the world. China and Eurasia Forum Website: www.chinaeurasia.org Abstracting Services The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is currently noted in the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS) and is also available through the EBSCO Research Databases. Subscriptions Subscription inquiries and requests for hard copies should be addressed to: The China and Eurasia Forum, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, United States or The China and Eurasia Forum, The Silk Road Studies Program, Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, 13130 Nacka-Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected] Submission Guidelines Details available at: www.chinaeurasia.org/submission-guidelines.html The statements of fact or opinion expressed in the articles and commentaries do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and sponsors. Printed in Singapore by Stallion Press Ltd. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2007. The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly (ISSN 1653-4212) is published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program <www.silkroadstudies.org>. Map used in the cover design is courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin. This publication was made possible with the support of The Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs and The Swedish Research Council THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY EDITORIAL BOARD Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Managing Editor Sébastien Peyrouse Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Associate Managing Editor Christopher Len Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Senior Advisors Daniel L. Burghart Malia K. Du Mont National Defense University, Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum USA and Former Associate Editor of the CEF Quarterly, USA Svante Cornell Director, Institute for Security and Matthew Oresman Development Policy, Sweden Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum, Former Director of the China-Eurasia David M. Finkelstein Forum and Former Editor of the CEF The CNA Corporation, USA Quarterly, USA Pan Guang S. Frederick Starr Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus China Institute, USA Bates Gill Farkhod Tolipov Director, Stockholm International Peace National University of Uzbekistan, Research Institute, Sweden Uzbekistan Zhao Huasheng Dmitri V. Trenin Fudan University, China Carnegie Endowment for International James A. Millward Peace, Russia Georgetown University, USA THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Review Committee Jeremy Allouche Marlène Laruelle Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk University of Sussex, UK Road Studies Program, USA/Sweden Luca Anceschi Li Lifan La Trobe University, Melbourne, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Australia China Eric Brown Richard Pomfret Hudson Institute, Washington D.C., USA University of Adelaide, Australia Nicolas De Pedro Anita Sengupta Complutense University, Madrid, Spain Institute of Asian Studies, Kolkata, India Mohammed-Reza Djalili Meena Singh Roy Institut Universitaire des hautes études Institute for Defence Studies and internationales, Genève, Switzerland Analyses, New Delhi, India Thierry Kellner Gael Raballand Brussels University, Brussels, Belgium World Bank, Washington D.C., USA Simbal Khan Uyama Tomohiko Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan Pakistan Thrassy Marketos Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Greece THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 8, No. 3 Autumn 2010 Contents Editors’ Note………………………………………………………….………………………….1 Special Issue: Turkmenistan Editors: Luca Anceschi and Sébastien Peyrouse -- Analytical Articles -- Turkmenistan: Permanent Transition or Elusive Stability? Steven Sabol……..…….....………………………….…….………………………….………….5 Changes in the Political Elite in Post-Soviet Turkmenistan Slavomír Horák……...……....………….……………………………………….…………….27 Berdymukhammedov’s Turkmenistan: A Modest Shift in Domestic and Social Politics Sébastien Peyrouse………….....……………………...………………….……………………47 Turkmenistan: A Promised Land for Doing Business? Macroeconomic Reforms under Berdymukhammedov Jan !ír………….……............……………………………….…………….……………………67 External Conditionality, Domestic Insulation and Energy Security: The International Politics of Post-Niyazov Turkmenistan Luca Anceschi…….……..….....………………..…….………………………………………..93 General -- Commentaries -- China’s Policy on the Conflict in Afghanistan Pan Guang……….....…………….………….………….………………………………………115 Towards a New Framework for Cross-Border Pipelines: The International Pipeline Agency Ishrak Ahmed Siddiky…………………………………..……….……………………………121 -- Analytical Articles -- National Identity and Invented Tradition: The Rehabilitation of Traditional Medicine in Post-Soviet Uzbekistan Sophie Hohmann………………….….…..……………………….……………………………129 The Geopolitical Consequences of the U.S.-Russian “Military Airbase Race” in Central Asia Fabio Indeo…..….....………………………..……….…………….…………………………..149 Labor Migration From Central Asia To Russia: Mutual Social Perception in the Orenburg Oblast Igor Savin..……………………...…………..…………………………..………………………173 1 Editors’ Note Dear Readers, Turkmenistan is generally regarded as the most obscure amongst the political systems of post-Soviet Central Asia. The cloud of mystery surrounding the Turkmen state thickened during the erratic and mercurial rule of its first President, Saparmurat Niyazov, whose eccentricities have regularly attracted the attention (and the sarcasm) of both Western and Russian media. Beyond past absurdities, the Turkmen state demands our attention, not only for its significant natural resources and its key geo-strategic position, but also for the tolerant disposition of the local population, who had to endure two decades of extreme isolation. Throughout the post-Soviet era, Turkmenistan strictly pursued a policy of “perpetual neutrality,” with a view of obtaining free hands in its dealings with Russia, diluting the different pressures exerted by the West within the context of the Iran question, and gaining a stronger bargaining position in its relations with the Taliban regime. The degree of international isolation surrounding the state appeared consistent with the deteriorating domestic political scene, which witnessed the emergence of extreme forms of authoritarian governance, the rehabilitation of pseudo- traditional political institutions allegedly inspired by the historical specificity of the Turkmen past and the introduction of a large number of draconian social measures, whose devastating effect was primarily felt in two key sectors, namely the education and the health system. With the death of Niyazov and the accession to power of Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, two diverging trends came to characterize the domestic and external spheres of Turkmen politics. On the one hand, Turkmenistan is opening - tentatively although inexorably - to the outer world. The Berdymukhammedov era witnessed a rapprochement in relations with Azerbaijan, the strengthening - in spite of some temporary hiccups - of Ashgabat’s partnership with Iran, the intensification of the always difficult ties with Russia, the emergence of strong bilateral links with China and a progressive thaw in the relations with the West in general and the European Union in particular. On the other hand, the domestic political situation remains