Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis – City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

Prepared for:

The City of Elliot Lake

November 22, 2012

November 21, 2012

Mr. Rob De Bortoli CAO, Elliot Lake Elliot Lake City Hall 45 Hillside Drive North Elliot Lake, ON, P5A 1X5

Dear Mr. De Bortoli:

Re: Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis – City of Elliot Lake, Ontario urbanMetrics inc. is pleased to submit our report, which details our analysis of the market opportunity for additional retail/service commercial space in the City of Elliot Lake.

The Elliot Lake Economic Development Advisory Committee has engaged urbanMetrics to undertake a detailed analysis of the Retail Sector in the City of Elliot Lake in light of the Algo Mall tragedy and provide the Community with a formal assessment of the retail/service commercial growth prospects in the short, medium and long-term. As a result of the Algo Mall closure, almost 20% of the commercial capacity in the City of Elliot Lake has been eliminated. This report provides an assessment of the existing and future market demand for a full range of retail/service commercial and identifies the warranted additional space in each store category. It is also intended to provide Elliot Lake with a strategy for managing its retail and service commercial space to ensure that the appropriate balance of goods and services is available locally.

The analyses and appendices in the attached report provide our detailed study findings and conclusions.

Yours truly, urbanMetrics inc.

Peter Thoma, MCIP, RPP, PLE Partner

Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 3

1.1 STUDY APPROACH ...... 3 1.1.1 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS...... 3 1.2 ASSUMPTIONS ...... 4 2 RETAIL AND SERVICE COMMERCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS ...... 5

2.1 TRADE AREA DELINEATION ...... 5 2.2 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS ...... 5 2.2.1 HISTORIC & FORECAST POPULATION ...... 6 2.2.2 PER CAPITA INCOME ...... 6 2.3 REVIEW OF RETAIL COMPETITION ...... 7 2.3.1 EXISTING TRADE AREA RETAIL FACILITIES ...... 7 2.3.2 PROPOSED COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENTS ...... 8 3 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS ...... 9

3.1 FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) ANALYSIS ...... 9 3.1.1 FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES ...... 9 3.1.2 SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS ...... 11 3.2 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) ANALYSIS ...... 13 3.2.1 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES ...... 13 3.2.2 BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLY STORE ANALYSIS ...... 16 3.2.3 PHARMACY AND PERSONAL CARE STORE ANALYSIS ...... 18 3.2.4 CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE ANALYSIS ...... 20 3.2.5 FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS STORE ANALYSIS...... 22 3.2.6 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE ANALYSIS ...... 24 3.2.7 MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STOREANALYSIS ...... 26 3.3 PER CAPITA SPACE ANALYSIS ...... 28 3.4 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS ...... 30 4 COMMERCIAL STRATEGY ...... 32

4.1 WARRANTED SPACE IN ELLIOT LAKE OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA ...... 32 4.2 SUMMARY OF MARKET DEPTH ...... 33 4.3 CONCLUSIONS ...... 36 APPENDIX A – ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...... 40 APPENDIX B – RETAIL INVENTORY ...... 45 APPENDIX C – NAICS CODES ...... 48

1 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX D – RETAIL ANALYSIS BACKGROUND ...... 52 APPENDIX E – CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS ...... 56 APPENDIX F – RETAIL IMPACT ANALYSIS ...... 72 APPENDIX G – MARKET DEPTH STORE LIST ...... 81

2 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

1 INTRODUCTION urbanMetrics inc. has been retained by the City of Elliot Lake (‘the City’, ‘Elliot Lake’) to undertake an independent market analysis to determine the amount of additional retail/service commercial space need to serve the local market.

In this report, urbanMetrics analyze local market conditions in Elliot Lake, and neighbouring jurisdictions, to quantify the amount of warranted, additional retail space that could be built in Elliot Lake, taking into consideration the space already exists, plus the space that is “tentatively proposed” as part of Pearson Plaza redevelopment project.

1.1 STUDY APPROACH

1.1.1 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

The following work plan has been undertaken to evaluate the retail market opportunity for the additional retail/service commercial space in the City of Elliot Lake:

1. Trade Area Delineation: A Trade Area has been defined for the project based on a number of factors including: existing and future competition in the local area, plus the anticipated drawing power of the Pearson Plaza. The Trade Area has been further divided into a Primary Zone (Elliot Lake) and a Secondary Zone (Spanish, Blind River, North Shore, Mississagi River IRI, and Serpent River IRI).

2. Retail and Service Commercial Inventory: An inventory of retail and service commercial uses has been undertaken in the Primary Zone of the defined Trade Area, including vacant floor space.

3. Determine the Dimensions of the Trade Area Market: The population in the Trade Area has been determined for selected years of the study period to 2031. Historic and current population levels are based on the Statistics Canada 2006 and 2011 Census data. Future population levels are based on the Ontario Ministry of Finance projections for the Algoma Census Division. In addition, income and expenditure levels have been determined for Trade Area residents for a variety of food store retail (“FSR”) and non-food store retail (“NFSR”) store categories and have been analyzed based on the expenditure approach.

4. Calculate Market Opportunity: Two types of analyses have been utilized to evaluate the market opportunity for retail and service space in the Trade Area: 1) expenditure based approach for FSR and NFSR space, and 2) per capita space analysis approach to determine the appropriate amount of service space.

5. Evaluate Impact: Based on our market analysis, any sales transfers required from existing and future potential competitive stores in the City of Elliot Lake have been determined.

3 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

Specifically, our market analysis and impact assessment has identified (a) the amount of retail and service commercial space warranted in the City of Elliot Lake; (b) the amount of space which could be accommodated beyond the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza; (c) whether it would result in transfers from existing in the Primary Zone; (d) the magnitude of sales transfers, if applicable; and (e) whether the sales transfers would impact the viability of existing retailers. Extensive consumer research has been conducted by urbanMetrics in the Trade Area as a part of the analysis for this report.

1.2 ASSUMPTIONS

There are several underlying and basic assumptions upon which the validity of the findings presented in this report depend. Based on our considerable experience in the commercial planning process, we recognize and appreciate the problems associated with making broad and generalized assumptions about future market conditions. Undoubtedly, deviations from historic and current trends will take place in the future. However, basic assumptions are required to determine the extent of such deviations. The basic assumptions used in preparation of this report are summarized below.

• During the forecast period discussed in this report, a reasonable degree of economic stability will prevail in the Province of Ontario, communities in northern Ontario, and in the City of Elliot Lake.

• Estimates of future population growth in the Trade Area have been based on the Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections for Algoma, which are assumed to be reliable for the purposes of this study.

• The official statistical sources utilized in our analysis (based largely on Statistics Canada publications, which have been noted were utilized) are considered sufficiently accurate for the purposes of our analysis.

• All references to the Canadian dollar in this report, which deal with present and future periods, reflect its 2011 value. It is recognized that fluctuations in the absolute value of the dollar will likely occur during the period covered in this report. However, it is assumed that the relationship between per capita income and expenditures will remain more or less constant during the period analyzed. Since this report deals with future space additions, inflation must be excluded since it has no influence on the physical space used in retail facilities. However, real growth (excluding inflation) in expenditures has been recognized in our analysis.

• The expected first full year of operation for Pearson Plaza is expected to be 2014.

Should major changes occur that may influence the reliability of the assumptions noted above, the results of our analysis may require revisions.

4 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

2 RETAIL AND SERVICE COMMERCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS

The various components of urbanMetrics’ retail and service commercial market demand and impact analysis is detailed in the following sections.

2.1 TRADE AREA DELINEATION

The total market influence attributed to a retail commercial development typically extends over a wide area beyond any precise boundary that can be drawn. In many cases, the shopping environment, competition, anchor tenants, and the range of goods and services offered in a project will affect the extent of this market influence. For the purpose of making reliable estimates of available market support available for the proposed retail/service commercial development on the subject site, a specific Trade Area has been defined. The Trade Area utilized in our analysis assumes that the proposed development will be characterized primarily by retail and service facilities primarily serving the daily shopping needs of Trade Area residents.

The Trade Area delineated for the subject site represents the geographic area from which retail/service commercial developments in the City of Elliot Lake are likely to attract the majority of their customer support. We have considered the location of existing retail/service commercial facilities, as well as the existing and projected population to evaluate the estimated drawing power of the proposed retail development. The Primary Zone is comprised of the City of Elliot Lake. The Secondary Zone includes the communities of Spanish, Blind River, North Shore, Mississagi River IRI, and Serpent River IRI.

Although the subject development is expected to derive the majority of its sales volume from the Trade Area population, and particularly the City of Elliot Lake, additional market support would also be derived from expenditures made by non-Trade Area residents, such as local employees, tourists, and other visitors to the local area. These expenditures represent inflow sales, which are included in our retail market demand and impact analysis. Recognizing the relatively isolated location of Elliot Lake, it is expected that retail/service commercial facilities will not derive significant support from inflow sales.

2.2 MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

In order to analyze the potential market available for retail and service commercial uses in the City of Elliot Lake, it is necessary to review historic growth trends in the Trade Area to determine future population and expenditure levels. Population growth, along with income, are the two major factors influencing the level of retail expenditures in a Trade Area and the retail space in specific store categories warranted in the market. The following subsections provide a detailed overview of the population and per capita income in the various zones of the defined Trade Area.

5 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

2.2.1 HISTORIC & FORECAST POPULATION

Figure 2-1 details the historic, current and forecast population for the Trade Area. The 2001, 2006 and 2011 population has been based on Statistics Canada Census data, adjusted for net undercoverage in the Census. Future projections for the Trade Area are based on the Ontario Ministry of Finance estimates for the Algoma Census Division. Appendix A provides details of the population forecast.

The Primary Zone, which includes residents in the City of Elliot Lake, has been relatively constant between 2001 and 2011. The population in the Primary Zone is projected to increase by approximately 1,000 residents between 2011 and 2031. The Secondary Zone population declined between 2001 and 2011, with a decrease of approximately 570 residents. In future years, the population in the Secondary Zone is expected to decrease further, by some 60 persons. Overall, the population in the total Trade Area population is expected to increase by approximately 900 persons between 2011 and 2031.

FIGURE 2-1: HISTORIC, CURRENT, AND FUTURE POPULATION

2001 2006 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Primary Zone Population 11,500 11,920 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 Average Annual Increase 84 - 26 113 45 52 42 12 Average Annual Growth 0.7% -0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%

Secondary Zone Population 6,290 6,000 5,720 5,820 5,780 5,690 5,580 5,660 Average Annual Increase - 58 - 56 33 - 20 - 18 - 22 16 Average Annual Growth -0.9% -0.9% 0.6% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% 0.3%

TOTAL STUDY AREA 17,790 17,920 17,510 17,950 18,000 18,170 18,270 18,410 Average Annual Increase 26 - 82 147 25 34 20 28 Average Annual Growth 0.1% -0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) The data for 2001, 2006 and 2011 are based on Statistics Canada Census of Canada. The population in future years is based on Ministry of Finance population projections. The population figures in this table have been adjusted to account for net undercoverage.

2.2.2 PER CAPITA INCOME

Per capita income levels provide a basis for determining the retail expenditure levels of Trade Area residents. As detailed in Figure 2-2, we have calculated the per capita income levels of local residents for both Trade Area zones, based on 2006 Statistics Canada Census data. The Primary Zone has a per capita income level which is approximately 24.2% below the Provincial average. Average per capita income levels are moderately higher in the Secondary Zone, although they remain 16.0% lower than the Provincial average.

The income indexes calculated in Figure 2-2 have been utilized to estimate the per capita retail expenditure levels for various store types in each Trade Area zone. We have assumed that future residents in the Trade Area would exhibit similar income characteristics to the existing population.

6 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 2-2: TRADE AREA PER CAPITA INCOME

Males 15 Male Females 15 Female Years and Average Years and Average 2006 Per Capita Index to Area Over Income Over Income Total Income Population Income Province Ontario 4,744,710 $46,962 5,074,710 $29,712 $373,600,854,540 12,160,282 $30,723 100.0% Primary Zone 4,735 $32,628 5,075 $22,578 $269,076,930 11,549 $23,299 75.8% Secondary Zone 2,220 $39,401 2,330 $26,836 $149,998,100 5,811 $25,813 84.0% TOTAL TRADE AREA 6,955 $34,790 7,405 $23,918 $419,075,030 17,360 $24,140 78.6%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Canada.

2.3 REVIEW OF RETAIL COMPETITION

The following section provides a general overview of the existing and proposed/designated commercial areas located in the Trade Area. A complete inventory of all retail/service commercial uses located in the Trade Area was conducted by urbanMetrics in August 2012. We also identified other planned retail developments in the Trade Area and vicinity, namely the proposed Pearson Plaza, based on publicly available information and discussions with municipal planning staff. These existing and planned retail/service commercial facilities in the Trade Area and vicinity have been recognized in our market analysis.

2.3.1 EXISTING TRADE AREA RETAIL FACILITIES

A full retail inventory was conducted by urbanMetrics in August 2012, to identify the existing retail/service commercial establishments in the Trade Area. Our retail market demand and impact analysis focuses on the existing inventory of stores the Primary Zone, in order to determine the warranted additional space in the local market. Appendix B provides the detailed inventory for the Primary Zone used in our retail market demand and impact analysis. Appendix C provides a description of the various store types included in each retail and service category.

Our retail inventory indicates that the Primary Zone provides approximately 392,735 square feet of retail/service commercial space, including:

• 42,652 square feet of Food Store Retail (FSR) space; • 174,340 square feet of Non-Food Store Retail (NFSR) space; and • 175,743 square feet of service space.

It is important to recognize that the existing distribution of retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake has been impacted by the closure of the Algo Centre Mall, which previously accounted for a significant portion of the total retail space in the Primary Zone. With closure of Algo Centre Mall, Elliot Lake residents are currently under-served in terms of access to a full range of retail/service commercial facilities.

7 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

2.3.2 PROPOSED COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

Pearson Plaza is a new shopping centre currently proposed in Elliot Lake on a 7.63 acre site, situated along Ontario Avenue. Although the development remains in the preliminary design stages, the proposed shopping centre is expected to provide approximately 53,000 square feet of new retail space, in addition to the reconstructed Foodland supermarket (28,000 square feet), and new public library (11,000 square feet). The development is expected to include approximately 20 retailers, in addition to food court and common corridor. The proposed development concept also allocates some space for future development, which could be used to accommodate future retail demand in the local market. A preliminary concept map for Pearson Plaza is provided in Figure 2-3.

FIGURE 2-3: PROPOSED PEARSON PLAZA CONCEPT PLAN

SOURCE: MCCOWAN & ASSOCIATES (NOV 2012)

8 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

To determine the amount of additional retail/service commercial space warranted in the City of Elliot Lake, including space outside Pearson Plaza, urbanMetrics has employed two methodologies:

(1) Expenditure Approach – a residual expenditure market analysis has been conducted for both food store retail (“FSR”) and non-food store retail (“NFSR”) store categories.

Our residual market analysis provides an indication of the market opportunity for additional retail space in the Trade Area, and the potential impact on existing/designated and proposed retail areas in Elliot Lake, including Pearson Plaza, which is intended to have a first full year of operation in 2014.

(2) Per Capita Space Approach – a per capita space analysis has also been undertaken that addresses the market need for the range of service commercial uses.

3.1 FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) ANALYSIS

3.1.1 FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES

The calculation of the average per capita FSR expenditures available from Primary and Secondary Zone residents has been detailed in Figure 3-1. Figure 3-1 also indicates the average per capita FSR expenditure level for residents in the Province of Ontario, which is estimated at $2,188 for 2011. Expenditure data for Ontario is derived from Statistics Canada’s Retail Trade data (see Appendix D for details).

The provincial per capita expenditure estimate for 2011 has been used to determine the per capita expenditure levels of Trade Area residents by applying an expenditure regression equation developed by urbanMetrics based on the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending data (see Appendix D for details).

Real growth assumptions are based on historic data and expected future trends, which have be utilized to forecast the per capita FSR expenditure potential in the Primary and Secondary Zones. Based on historic real growth and future expectations, we have assumed an annual real growth rate of 0.25% (not compounded) for FSR expenditures. Future changes in expenditure levels which result from inflation are not recognized in our real growth assumptions and therefore future expenditure levels are expressed in terms of the 2011 value of the Canadian dollar.

The total FSR expenditure potential for Trade Area residents is calculated by multiplying the average per capita FSR expenditures by the corresponding population level in each Trade Area zone. Total FSR expenditures available from Trade Area residents are estimated at $37.5

9 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario million for 2011. By 2031, the total FSR expenditure potential available from Trade Area residents is expected to increase to $41.4 million, which represents a growth of $3.9 million over the study period.

Total FSR expenditures in the Trade Area have also been distributed into two main store categories: supermarket/grocery and other convenience/specialty food stores. This distribution has been based on the provincial distribution. For the purposes of our analysis, only minimal changes in this distribution have been assumed over the study period.

FIGURE 3-1: FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

2011 Dollars 2011 Province of Ontario Per Capita FSR Expenditure $ 2,188 (1 2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Primary Zone Income Index to Province 75.80 FSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 97.60 Per Capita FSR Expenditure (3 $ 2,135 $ 2,151 $ 2,162 $ 2,188 $ 2,215 $ 2,242 Population 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 TOTAL FSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 25.2 $ 26.1 $ 26.4 $ 27.3 $ 28.1 $ 28.6 FSR - Supermarket Share (4 87.4% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 12.6% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100% FSR - Supermarkets (4 $ 22.0 $ 22.8 $ 23.1 $ 23.9 $ 24.6 $ 25.0 FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.3 $ 3.4 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 Total $ 25.2 $ 26.1 $ 26.4 $ 27.3 $ 28.1 $ 28.6 Secondary Zone Income Index to Province 84.00 FSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 98.40 Per Capita FSR Expenditure (3 $ 2,153 $ 2,169 $ 2,180 $ 2,207 $ 2,234 $ 2,261 Population 5,720 5,820 5,780 5,690 5,580 5,660 TOTAL FSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.5 $ 12.8 FSR - Supermarket Share (4 87.4% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 12.6% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% Total 100.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% FSR - Supermarkets (4 $ 10.8 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 10.9 $ 11.2 FSR - Grocery/Other Food Store Share (4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 Total $ 12.3 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.6 $ 12.5 $ 12.8 TOTAL STUDY AREA TOTAL FSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 37.5 $ 38.7 $ 39.0 $ 39.9 $ 40.6 $ 41.4 TOTAL FSR - Supermarkets ($Millions) $ 32.8 $ 33.8 $ 34.1 $ 34.9 $ 35.5 $ 36.2 Cumulative Growth $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.4 TOTAL FSR - Grocery/Other Food ($Millions) $ 4.7 $ 4.9 $ 4.9 $ 5.0 $ 5.1 $ 5.2 Cumulative Growth $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (full year 2011 data). See Appendix D for more information. 2) urbanMetrics inc. estimate, based on Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2009 (December 2010). See Appendix D for more information. 3) Per capita Food Store Retail expenditures are forecast to increase by 0.25% per year (not compounded) in future years in real terms (i.e. excluding inflation). See Appendix D for more information. 4) The shares for 2011 are urbanMetrics inc. estimates, based on the Provincial distribution.

10 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.1.2 SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS

There are currently two supermarkets in Elliot Lake, including a 34,000 square foot No Frills, as well as a Foodland, which is currently operating at a temporary location in Elliot Lake. The temporary Foodland supermarket has been established in Collins Hall, using financial assistance from the Business Continuity Fund established by the Provincial government. The Foodland was located in Algo Centre Mall, and previously occupied approximately 27,000 square feet of retail space.

Figure 3-2 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for additional supermarket space in the Trade Area. The Primary Zone or Elliot Lake share has been forecast over the study period. This represents the expenditures available from Primary Zone residents that could be captured by a new supermarket in the local market. The remaining portion of these expenditures represent those made outside the Trade Area (e.g. Sudbury, Timmins.).

According to the results of our online consumer survey research in the Trade Area, the Primary Zone share is currently 94.5% in the Primary Zone, as detailed in Appendix E. Subsequently we have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at approximately 75.0%. Assuming that the majority of residents in the Primary Zone would continue to patronize local supermarkets on the subject site, a 95% future Primary Zone Share has been forecast. For the Secondary Zone, we have assumed the Primary Zone share would remain constant at 75.0%, recognizing that residents of this area may also choose to patronize stores located outside the Trade Area.

Based on Primary Zone share assumptions, the total expenditures available from Trade Area residents for additional supermarket space equates to $28.9 million in 2011, increasing to $31.0 million in 2021, before increasing further to $32.2 million by 2031. The residual potential represents the additional expenditures from Trade Area residents that would be available in the future for new supermarket space in the local market.

Assuming an inflow of 10% from outside the Trade Area, over the study period some 2,400 to 6,000 square feet of additional supermarket space would be warranted at a sales performance levels ranging between $500 and $600 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars). It is important to recognize that we have already recognized the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket. As a result, our warranted additional space calculations reflect the amount of additional supermarket space beyond the newly reconstructed 28,000 square foot Foodland.

11 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-2: SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS

SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Primary Zone Supermarket Expenditures ($Millions) $ 22.0 $ 22.8 $ 23.1 $ 23.9 $ 24.6 $ 25.0 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 94.5% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 20.8 $ 21.7 $ 21.9 $ 22.7 $ 23.4 $ 23.8 Residual Potential $ 0.9 $ 1.1 $ 1.9 $ 2.6 $ 3.0

Secondary Zone Supermarket Expenditures ($Millions) $ 10.8 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 11.0 $ 10.9 $ 11.2 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 8.1 $ 8.3 $ 8.3 $ 8.3 $ 8.2 $ 8.4 Residual $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.1 $ 0.3 TOTAL STUDY AREA Total Supermarket Expenditures ($Millions) $ 32.8 $ 33.8 $ 34.1 $ 34.9 $ 35.5 $ 36.2 Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 28.9 $ 30.0 $ 30.2 $ 31.0 $ 31.6 $ 32.2 Estimated Primary Zone Share % 88.1% 88.8% 88.6% 88.8% 89.0% 88.8% Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9 $ 28.9 Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.3

Existing Supermarkets (60,816 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%): $ 528

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Additional Residual Potential Available $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 2.1 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 Plus Inflow Sales @ 10.0% (2 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 1.2 $ 1.4 $ 2.3 $ 3.0 $ 3.6

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3 @ $500 per sq. ft. 2,400 2,900 4,700 6,000 7,200 @ $525 per sq. ft. 2,300 2,800 4,400 5,700 6,900 @ $550 per sq. ft. 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600 @ $575 per sq. ft. 2,100 2,500 4,100 5,200 6,300 @ $600 per sq. ft. 2,000 2,400 3,900 5,000 6,000

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 PROPOSED SUPERMARKET SPACE - Primary Zone Foodland (Reconstruction) Proposed Supermarket Space (square feet GLA) 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 500 $ 500 $ 500 $ 500 $ 500 Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 14.0 $ 14.0 $ 14.0 $ 14.0 $ 14.0 Less Inflow (%) (2 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.1 Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 13.0 $ 13.0 $ 13.0 $ 13.0 $ 13.0

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) urbanmetrics inc. estimates based on online consumer survey results. 2) urbanMetrics estimate. 3) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet. Recognizing that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket will only add approximately 1,000 square feet of supermarket space in the local market, there is expected to be no impacts on existing supermarkets in Elliot Lake. To account for the Foodland reconstruction we have recorded the previous store as having closed, and recorded the new store at 28,000 square feet, with a first full year of operation in 2014. Given that the new Foodland will replace the previous supermarket, there are not expected to be any significant impacts on the existing No Frills supermarket, which is currently performing at the high-end of the typical sales performance level for this store category.

12 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.2 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR) ANALYSIS

As part of our analysis, we also analyzed the potential for a number of non-food store retail (“NFSR”) tenants such as a drug store, a general merchandise store, and a range of other NFSR stores such as a florist, pet supply, electronics, telephone, and toy/game store.

3.2.1 NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES

The calculation of the average per capita and total NFSR expenditures available from Primary and Secondary Zone residents is shown in Figure 3-3. Figure 3-3 also indicates the average per capita NFSR expenditure level for the Province, which is estimated at $5,554 for 2011. These expenditures are distributed between each NFSR category based on the results of our online consumer survey research, as detailed in Appendix E. Expenditure data for Ontario has been derived from Statistics Canada’s Retail Trade data (see Appendix D).

The provincial per capita expenditure estimate for 2011 has been used to determine the per capita expenditure levels of Trade Area residents, by applying an expenditure regression equation developed by urbanMetrics based on the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending data (see Appendix D).

Based on historic data and expected future trends, we have assumed an annual real growth rate of 1.5% (not compounded) for NFSR expenditures. Future changes in expenditure levels which result from inflation are not recognized in our growth assumptions and therefore future expenditure levels are expressed in terms of the 2011 value of the Canadian dollar.

Trade Area residents’ total NFSR expenditure potential has been calculated by multiplying the average per capita NFSR expenditures by the corresponding population level in each Trade Area zone. The total NFSR expenditure potential available from Trade Area residents is estimated at $88.8 million in 2011 and is expected to increase to $121.4 million by 2031, which represents a growth of $32.6 million over the study period.

Total NFSR expenditures in the Trade Area have been distributed by various major NFSR store categories. The existing provincial distribution has been used to estimate the distribution by store type for the Primary and Secondary Zones.

13 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-3: NFSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL

2011 Dollars 2011

Province of Ontario Per Capita NFSR Expenditure $ 5,554 (1

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Primary Zone Income Index to Province 75.80 NFSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 90.30 Per Capita NFSR Expenditure (3 $ 5,015 $ 5,241 $ 5,391 $ 5,767 $ 6,143 $ 6,520 Population 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 TOTAL NFSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 59.1 $ 63.6 $ 65.9 $ 72.0 $ 78.0 $ 83.1 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (4 15.6% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% Clothing and Accessories Stores (4 8.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores (4 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores (4 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% General Merchandise (4 20.9% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% Department Stores (4 18.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Miscellanous Retailers (4 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Automotive (4 8.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100% Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $ 9.2 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 12.2 $ 13.3 $ 14.1 Clothing and Accessories Stores $ 5.0 $ 6.4 $ 6.6 $ 7.2 $ 7.8 $ 8.3 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $ 6.6 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.1 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $ 7.3 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.4 $ 10.0 General Merchandise $ 12.4 $ 19.7 $ 20.4 $ 22.3 $ 24.2 $ 25.8 Department Stores $ 10.6 $ 3.2 $ 3.3 $ 3.6 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 Miscellanous Retailers $ 3.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 Automotive $ 4.9 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 Total $ 59.2 $ 63.7 $ 65.8 $ 71.8 $ 78.2 $ 83.1

Secondary Zone Income Index to Province 84.00 NFSR Expenditure Index to Province (2 93.60 Per Capita NFSR Expenditure (3 $ 5,199 $ 5,433 $ 5,589 $ 5,979 $ 6,369 $ 6,759 Population 5,720 5,820 5,780 5,690 5,580 5,660 TOTAL NFSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 29.7 $ 31.6 $ 32.3 $ 34.0 $ 35.5 $ 38.3 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (4 15.6% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% Clothing and Accessories Stores (4 8.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores (4 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores (4 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% General Merchandise (4 20.9% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% Department Stores (4 18.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Miscellanous Retailers (4 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Automotive (4 8.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100% Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $ 4.6 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.5 Clothing and Accessories Stores $ 2.5 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.6 General Merchandise $ 6.2 $ 9.8 $ 10.0 $ 10.5 $ 11.0 $ 11.9 Department Stores $ 5.3 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 Miscellanous Retailers $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 Automotive $ 2.5 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 Total $ 29.7 $ 31.7 $ 32.4 $ 34.0 $ 35.6 $ 38.3

14 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-3: NFSR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL continued…

TOTAL STUDY AREA TOTAL NFSR POTENTIAL ($Millions) $ 88.8 $ 95.2 $ 98.2 $ 106.0 $ 113.5 $ 121.4 Cumulative Growth $ 6.4 $ 9.4 $ 17.2 $ 24.7 $ 32.6 General Merchandise Store Share ($Millions) $ 18.6 $ 29.5 $ 30.4 $ 32.8 $ 35.2 $ 37.7 General Merchandise Store Share (%) 20.9% 31.0% 31.0% 30.9% 31.0% 31.1% Cumulative Growth $ 10.9 $ 0.9 $ 2.4 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 Department Store Share ($Millions) $ 15.9 $ 4.8 $ 4.9 $ 5.3 $ 5.7 $ 6.1 Department Store Share (%) 17.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Cumulative Growth -$11.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 Apparel and Accessories Store Share ($Millions) $ 7.5 $ 9.6 $ 9.8 $ 10.6 $ 11.4 $ 12.1 Apparel and Accessories Store Share (%) 8.4% 10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Cumulative Growth $ 2.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.7 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Store Share ($Millions) $ 9.9 $ 10.5 $ 10.8 $ 11.6 $ 12.5 $ 13.3 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Store Share (%) 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 10.9% 11.0% 11.0% Cumulative Growth $ 0.6 $ 0.3 $ 0.8 $ 0.9 $ 0.8 Miscellaneous Retailers Share ($Millions) $ 4.8 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.4 $ 8.0 $ 8.5 Other Miscellaneous Retailers Share (%) 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Cumulative Growth $ 1.9 $ 0.2 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.5 Health and Personal Care Store Share ($Millions) $ 13.8 $ 16.2 $ 16.7 $ 18.0 $ 19.3 $ 20.6 Health and Personal Care Store Share (%) 15.5% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% Cumulative Growth $ 2.4 $ 0.5 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 Building and Outdoor Home Supply Store Share ($Millions) $ 11.0 $ 11.4 $ 11.8 $ 12.7 $ 13.7 $ 14.6 Building and Outdoor Home Supply Store Share (%) 12.4% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.1% 12.0% Cumulative Growth $ 0.4 $ 0.4 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 0.9

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (full year 2011 data). See Appendix D for more information. 2) urbanMetrics inc. estimate, based on Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2009 (December 2010). See Appendix D for more information. 3) Per capita Non-Food Store Retail expenditures are forecast to increase by 1.5% per year (not compounded) in future years in real terms (i.e. excluding inflation). See Appendix D for more information. 4) The shares for 2011 are urbanMetrics inc. estimates, based on the Provincial distribution.

15 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.2.2 BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLY STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-4 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for building and outdoor home supply space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 88.7%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of building and outdoor home supplies space in the Trade Area, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would increase. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 90% for Primary Zone residents; with a 65% Primary Zone share for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-4, the Primary Zone share of building and outdoor home supply expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $11.4 million in 2014; increasing to $14.6 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for building and outdoor home supply space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 15% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone building and outdoor home supply stores would amount to $0.7 million in 2014, increasing to $3.9 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 5,000 square feet of building and outdoor home supply space is constructed in the Primary Zone, there would still be residual market demand by the end of the study period if the new space operates at an average sales performance between $250 and to $350 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars). These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for building and outdoor home supply space in the Primary Zone would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the local market, any impacts on existing building and outdoor home supply stores in Elliot Lake are expected to be negligible. In Figure 3-4 we have provided an estimate of the potential sales transfers that would occur from existing building and outdoor home supply stores. Based on our estimates, only minimal transfers would be required over the study period, and no sales transfers would be required after 2016. A detailed analysis of the impact of the addition of building and outdoor home supply store space on existing building and outdoor home supply stores in the Primary Zone is provided in Appendix F.

16 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-4: BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLY STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Primary Zone Home Improvement ($Millions) $ 7.3 $ 7.6 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.4 $ 10.0 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 88.7% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 6.5 $ 6.8 $ 7.1 $ 7.7 $ 8.5 $ 9.0 Residual Potential $ 0.3 $ 0.6 $ 1.2 $ 2.0 $ 2.5

Secondary Zone Home Improvement ($Millions) $ 3.7 $ 3.8 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 $ 4.3 $ 4.6 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 60.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 2.2 $ 2.5 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 $ 2.8 $ 3.0 Residual $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.8 TOTAL STUDY AREA Total Home Improvement Expenditures ($Millions) $ 11.0 $ 11.4 $ 11.8 $ 12.7 $ 13.7 $ 14.6 Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 8.7 $ 9.3 $ 9.6 $ 10.4 $ 11.3 $ 12.0 Estimated Primary Zone Share % 79.1% 81.6% 81.4% 81.9% 82.5% 82.1% Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 8.7 $ 8.7 $ 8.7 $ 8.7 $ 8.7 $ 8.7 Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.3

Existing Home Improvement Stores(29,931 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 15%): $ 342

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Home Improvement SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Additional Residual Potential Available $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.3 Plus Inflow Sales @ 15.0% (2 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 0.7 $ 1.1 $ 2.0 $ 3.1 $ 3.9

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3 @ $250 per sq. ft. 2,800 4,200 8,000 12,200 15,500 @ $275 per sq. ft. 2,600 3,900 7,300 11,100 14,100 @ $300 per sq. ft. 2,400 3,500 6,700 10,200 12,900 @ $325 per sq. ft. 2,200 3,300 6,200 9,400 11,900 @ $350 per sq. ft. 2,000 3,000 5,700 8,700 11,100

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 PROPOSED Home Improvement SPACE - Primary Zone Elliot Lake - General Location(s) Proposed Space (square feet GLA) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 250 $ 262 $ 291 $ 321 $ 350 Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 Less Inflow (%) (2 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5

PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND Total Proposed Space (sq. ft.) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.7 $ 2.6 $ 3.3 Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) -$0.5 -$0.2 $ 0.4 $ 1.2 $ 1.8

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) urbanmetrics inc., based on online consumer survey results, future years based on urbanMetrics estimates. 2) urbanMetrics estimate. 3) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.

17 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.2.3 PHARMACY AND PERSONAL CARE STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-5 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for pharmacy and personal care space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 95.2%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 75.0%. For the pharmacy and personal care category, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would remain relatively constant. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 95.0% for Primary Zone residents; with a 75.0% Primary Zone share for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-5, the Primary Zone share of pharmacy and personal care expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $16.2 million in 2014; increasing to $20.6 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in future years for pharmacy and personal care space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 10% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone pharmacy and personal care stores would amount to $2.3 million in 2014, increasing to $6.6 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 2,000 square feet of pharmacy and personal care space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance between $600 and $700 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional pharmacy and personal care space elsewhere in Elliot Lake. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 2,000 square feet of pharmacy and personal care space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant between 1,700 and 7,800 square feet of additional pharmacy and personal care space in the Trade Area over the study period.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for pharmacy and personal care space on the subject site would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, there are expected to be no impacts on existing pharmacy and personal care stores in Elliot Lake. In Figure 3-5 we have provided an estimate of the residual market demand for additional pharmacy and personal care space in the Primary Zone. Based on our estimates, no sales transfers would be required during the study period. In fact, our analysis indicates that there would be market opportunity for additional pharmacy and personal care space in Elliot Lake. A detailed analysis of the impact of the addition of pharmacy and personal care store space on existing pharmacy and personal care stores is provided in Appendix F.

18 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-5: PHARMACY AND PERSONAL CARE STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary Zone Pharmacies and Personal Care ($Millions) $ 9.2 $ 10.8 $ 11.2 $ 12.2 $ 13.3 $ 14.1 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 95.2% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 8.8 $ 10.3 $ 10.6 $ 11.6 $ 12.6 $ 13.4 Residual Potential $ 1.5 $ 1.8 $ 2.8 $ 3.8 $ 4.6

Secondary Zone Pharmacies and Personal Care ($Millions) $ 4.6 $ 5.4 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 $ 6.0 $ 6.5 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 3.5 $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 4.4 $ 4.5 $ 4.9 Residual $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 1.0 $ 1.4

TOTAL STUDY AREA Total Pharmacies and Personal Care ($Millions) $ 13.8 $ 16.2 $ 16.7 $ 18.0 $ 19.3 $ 20.6 Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 12.3 $ 14.4 $ 14.7 $ 16.0 $ 17.1 $ 18.3 Estimated Primary Zone Share % 89.1% 88.9% 88.0% 88.9% 88.6% 88.7%

Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 12.3 $ 12.3 $ 12.3 $ 12.3 $ 12.3 $ 12.3 Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.8 $ 6.0

Existing Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores (36,230 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%): $ 377

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Pharmacies and Personal Care SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Additional Residual Potential Available $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.8 $ 6.0 Plus Inflow Sales @ 10.0% (2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.7 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 2.3 $ 2.7 $ 4.1 $ 5.3 $ 6.6

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3 @ $600 per sq. ft. 3,900 4,400 6,900 8,900 11,100 @ $625 per sq. ft. 3,700 4,300 6,600 8,500 10,600 @ $650 per sq. ft. 3,600 4,100 6,300 8,200 10,200 @ $675 per sq. ft. 3,500 4,000 6,100 7,900 9,800 @ $700 per sq. ft. 3,300 3,800 5,900 7,600 9,500

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 PROPOSED PHARMACIES AND PERSONAL CARE SPACE - PRIMARY ZONE Pearson Plaza Proposed Space (square feet GLA) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 600 $ 612 $ 641 $ 671 $ 700 Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 Less Inflow (%) (2 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3

PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND Total Proposed Pharmacies and Personal Care Space (sq. ft.) 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 $ 1.3 $ 1.4 Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.2 $ 1.3 Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 3.7 $ 4.8 $ 6.0 Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) $ 1.0 $ 1.3 $ 2.5 $ 3.6 $ 4.7

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excludes inflow) @ $600 per sq. ft. 1,700 2,200 4,200 6,000 7,800 @ $625 per sq. ft. 1,600 2,100 4,000 5,800 7,500 @ $650 per sq. ft. 1,500 2,000 3,800 5,500 7,200 @ $675 per sq. ft. 1,500 1,900 3,700 5,300 6,900 @ $700 per sq. ft. 1,400 1,900 3,600 5,100 6,700

19 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.2.4 CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-6 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for clothing and accessories space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 60.0%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have also estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of clothing and accessories space in the Trade Area, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would increase. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 70% for Primary Zone residents; with a 65% Primary Zone share for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-6, the Primary Zone share of clothing and accessories expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $9.6 million in 2014, increasing to $12.1 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for clothing and accessories space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 10% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone clothing and accessories stores would amount to $2.3 million in 2014, increasing to $4.2 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 8,600 square feet of clothing and accessories space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance ranging between $300 and $400 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional clothing and accessories space elsewhere in Elliot Lake. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 8,600 square feet of clothing and accessories space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 8,600 square feet of additional clothing and accessories space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for clothing and accessories space on the subject site would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, any impacts on existing clothing and accessories stores in Elliot Lake are expected to be negligible. In fact, no sales transfers would be required to support the proposed clothing and accessories store space after 2016. In Figure 3-6 we have provided an estimate of the potential sales transfers that would occur from existing clothing and accessories stores. A detailed analysis of the impact of the addition of clothing and accessories store space on existing clothing and accessories stores is provided in Appendix F.

20 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-6: CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary Zone Clothing & Accessories ($Millions) $ 5.0 $ 6.4 $ 6.6 $ 7.2 $ 7.8 $ 8.3 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 60.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 3.0 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 Residual Potential $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.5 $ 2.8

Secondary Zone Clothing & Accessories ($Millions) $ 2.5 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 $ 3.6 $ 3.8 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 60.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 1.5 $ 2.1 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 Residual $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.7 $ 0.8 $ 1.0

Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) Total Clothing & Accessories ($M) $ 7.5 $ 9.6 $ 9.8 $ 10.6 $ 11.4 $ 12.1 Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 4.5 $ 6.6 $ 6.7 $ 7.2 $ 7.8 $ 8.3 Estimated Primary Zone Share % 60.0% 68.8% 68.4% 67.9% 68.4% 68.4%

Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 $ 4.5 Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8

Existing Clothing & Accessories Stores (5813 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%): $ 860

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Clothing & Accessories SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Additional Residual Potential Available $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8 Plus Inflow Sales @ 10.0% (2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.4 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 3.0 $ 3.7 $ 4.2

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3 @ $300 per sq. ft. 7,800 8,100 10,000 12,200 14,000 @ $325 per sq. ft. 7,200 7,500 9,200 11,300 12,900 @ $350 per sq. ft. 6,700 7,000 8,600 10,500 12,000 @ $375 per sq. ft. 6,200 6,500 8,000 9,800 11,200 @ $400 per sq. ft. 5,800 6,100 7,500 9,200 10,500

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 PROPOSED CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES SPACE - PRIMARY ZONE Pearson Plaza Proposed Space (square feet GLA) 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 300 $ 312 $ 341 $ 371 $ 400 Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 Less Inflow (%) (2 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1

PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND Total Proposed Clothing & Accessories Space (sq. ft.) 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 2.9 $ 3.2 $ 3.4 Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.6 $ 2.9 $ 3.1 Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.3 $ 3.8 Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) -$0.2 -$0.2 $ 0.1 $ 0.4 $ 0.7

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow) @ $300 per sq. ft. 700- 700- 300 1,300 2,300 @ $325 per sq. ft. 600- 600- 300 1,200 2,100 @ $350 per sq. ft. 600- 600- 300 1,100 1,900 @ $375 per sq. ft. 500- 500- 300 1,100 1,800 @ $400 per sq. ft. 500- 500- 300 1,000 1,700

21 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.2.5 FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-7 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for home furnishing and electronics space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 64.7%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of home furnishing and electronics space as part of Pearson Plaza, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Primary Zone residents would increase in future years. In the Secondary Zone, the Primary Zone share is expected to remain constant during the study period. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 65% for Primary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-7, the Primary Zone share of home furnishing and electronics expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $10.5 million in 2014, increasing to $13.3 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for home furnishing and electronics space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 15% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone home furnishing and electronics stores would amount to $0.5 million in 2014, increasing to $2.5 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 2,500 square feet of home furnishing and electronics space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance level of $350 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would still be residual market demand to support additional clothing and accessories space elsewhere in Elliot Lake in future years. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 2,500 square feet of home furnishing and electronics space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 3,800 square feet of additional clothing and accessories space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for home furnishing and electronics space in Pearson Plaza would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, there are only expected to be minimal sales impacts on existing home furnishing and electronics stores in Elliot Lake. There are expected to some sales transfers from existing stores when the shopping centre initially opens, which will no longer be required after 2016. In Figure 3-7 we have provided an estimate of the potential sales transfers that would occur from existing home furnishing and electronics stores. A detailed analysis of the impact of additional home furnishing and electronics store space on existing home furnishing and electronics stores is provided in Appendix F.

22 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-7: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS STORE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary Zone Home Furnishings ($Millions) $ 6.6 $ 7.0 $ 7.2 $ 7.9 $ 8.6 $ 9.1 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 64.7% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 4.3 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 5.1 $ 5.6 $ 5.9 Residual Potential $ 0.3 $ 0.4 $ 0.8 $ 1.3 $ 1.6

Secondary Zone Home Furnishings ($Millions) $ 3.3 $ 3.5 $ 3.6 $ 3.7 $ 3.9 $ 4.2 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 2.0 $ 2.1 $ 2.2 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.5 Residual $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.5

Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) Total Home Furnishings ($M) $ 9.9 $ 10.5 $ 10.8 $ 11.6 $ 12.5 $ 13.3 Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 6.3 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.3 $ 7.9 $ 8.4 Estimated Primary Zone Share % 63.6% 63.8% 63.9% 62.9% 63.2% 63.4%

Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 $ 6.3 Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.1

Existing Home Furnishings Stores (24,944 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 15%): $ 297

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Home Furnishings SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Additional Residual Potential Available $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 Plus Inflow Sales @ 15.0% (2 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.4 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 0.5 $ 0.7 $ 1.2 $ 1.9 $ 2.5

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3 @ $350 per sq. ft. 1,300 2,000 3,400 5,400 7,200 @ $375 per sq. ft. 1,300 1,900 3,100 5,000 6,700 @ $400 per sq. ft. 1,200 1,800 2,900 4,700 6,300 @ $425 per sq. ft. 1,100 1,700 2,800 4,400 5,900 @ $450 per sq. ft. 1,000 1,600 2,600 4,200 5,600

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 PROPOSED HOME FURNISHINGS SPACE - PRIMARY ZONE Pearson Plaza Proposed Space (square feet GLA) 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 350 $ 350 $ 350 $ 350 $ 350 Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 Less Inflow (%) (2 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8

PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND Total Proposed Home Furnishings Space (sq. ft.) 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 $ 0.9 Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 0.8 Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 0.4 $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $ 1.6 $ 2.1 Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) -$0.4 -$0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.8 $ 1.3

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow) @ $350 per sq. ft. 1,100- 600- 600 2,300 3,800 @ $375 per sq. ft. 1,100- 500- 500 2,100 3,600 @ $400 per sq. ft. 1,000- 500- 500 2,000 3,300 @ $425 per sq. ft. 900- 500- 500 1,900 3,100 @ $450 per sq. ft. 900- 400- 400 1,800 3,000

23 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.2.6 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE ANALYSIS

Figure 3-8 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for general merchandise space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 85.3%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 80.0%. In future years, the Primary Zone share in the Trade Area is expected to remain relatively constant. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-8, the Primary Zone share of general merchandise expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $29.5 million in 2014, increasing to $37.7 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for general merchandise space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 15% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone general merchandise stores would amount to $10.5 million in 2014, increasing to $18.6 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 25,600 square feet of general merchandise space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance level ranging between $400 and $500 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional general merchandise space elsewhere in Elliot Lake in future years. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 25,600 square feet of general merchandise space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 12,400 square feet of additional general merchandise space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for general merchandise space in Pearson Plaza would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, there is expected to be no impacts on existing general merchandise stores in Elliot Lake. In Figure 3-8 we have provided an estimate of the residual market demand for additional general merchandise space in the Primary Zone. A detailed analysis of the impact of additional general merchandise store space on existing general merchandise stores is provided in Appendix F.

24 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-8: GENERAL MERHCNADISE STORE ANALYSIS

GENERAL MERCHANDISE ANALYSIS

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary Zone General Merchandise ($Millions) $ 12.4 $ 19.7 $ 20.4 $ 22.3 $ 24.2 $ 25.8 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 85.3% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 10.6 $ 16.7 $ 17.3 $ 19.0 $ 20.6 $ 21.9 Residual Potential $ 6.1 $ 6.7 $ 8.4 $ 10.0 $ 11.3

Secondary Zone General Merchandise ($Millions) $ 6.2 $ 9.8 $ 10.0 $ 10.5 $ 11.0 $ 11.9 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (1 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 5.0 $ 7.8 $ 8.0 $ 8.4 $ 8.8 $ 9.5 Residual $ 2.8 $ 3.0 $ 3.4 $ 3.8 $ 4.5

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Home Furnishings SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Total General Merchandise ($Millions) $ 18.6 $ 29.5 $ 30.4 $ 32.8 $ 35.2 $ 37.7 Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 15.6 $ 24.5 $ 25.3 $ 27.4 $ 29.4 $ 31.5 Estimated Primary Zone Share % 83.9% 83.1% 83.2% 83.5% 83.5% 83.4%

Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6 $ 15.6 Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 8.9 $ 9.7 $ 11.8 $ 13.8 $ 15.9

Existing General Merchandise Stores (35,767 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of $ 513

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL General Merchandise SPACE - Primary Zone(including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Additional Residual Potential Available $ 8.9 $ 9.7 $ 11.8 $ 13.8 $ 15.9 Plus Inflow Sales @ 15.0% (2 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 2.1 $ 2.4 $ 2.8 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 10.5 $ 11.4 $ 13.9 $ 16.2 $ 18.6

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (3 @ $400 per sq. ft. 26,200 28,500 34,700 40,600 46,600 @ $425 per sq. ft. 24,600 26,900 32,700 38,200 43,900 @ $450 per sq. ft. 23,300 25,400 30,800 36,100 41,400 @ $475 per sq. ft. 22,000 24,000 29,200 34,200 39,300 @ $500 per sq. ft. 20,900 22,800 27,800 32,500 37,300

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 PROPOSED GENERAL MERCHANDISE SPACE - PRIMARY ZONE Pearson Plaza Proposed Space (square feet GLA) 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 400 $ 412 $ 441 $ 471 $ 500 Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 10.2 $ 10.5 $ 11.3 $ 12.0 $ 12.8 Less Inflow (%) (2 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 1.9 Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 8.7 $ 8.9 $ 9.6 $ 10.2 $ 10.9

PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND Total Proposed General Merchandise Space (sq. ft.) 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 25,600 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 10.2 $ 10.5 $ 11.3 $ 12.0 $ 12.8 Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 8.7 $ 8.9 $ 9.6 $ 10.2 $ 10.9 Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 8.9 $ 9.7 $ 11.8 $ 13.8 $ 15.9 Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) $ 0.2 $ 0.8 $ 2.2 $ 3.6 $ 5.0

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow) @ $400 per sq. ft. 500 2,000 5,500 9,000 12,400 @ $425 per sq. ft. 500 1,900 5,200 8,500 11,600 @ $450 per sq. ft. 400 1,800 4,900 8,000 11,000 @ $475 per sq. ft. 400 1,700 4,600 7,600 10,400 @ $500 per sq. ft. 400 1,600 4,400 7,200 9,900

25 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.2.7 MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STOREANALYSIS

Figure 3-9 provides a detailed evaluation of the market opportunity for miscellaneous retail space in the Primary Zone.

Based on the results of our online consumer survey, the Primary Zone share in the Primary Zone is 66.4%, as detailed in Appendix E. We have estimated the Primary Zone share in the Secondary Zone at 60.0%. With the introduction of miscellaneous retail space as part of Pearson Plaza, we have estimated that the future Primary Zone share for Trade Area residents would increase. In future years, the Primary Zone share has been estimated at 70% for Primary Zone residents and 65% for Secondary Zone residents. Based on the calculations in Figure 3-9, the Primary Zone share of miscellaneous retail expenditures derived from all Trade Area residents’ amounts to $6.7 million in 2014, increasing to $8.5 million by 2031 (expressed in 2011 dollars).

Residual potential represents the additional expenditures available from Trade Area residents in the future for miscellaneous retail space in the Primary Zone. Including an additional 10% inflow from outside the Trade Area, we have estimated the total additional sales potential available for Primary Zone miscellaneous retail stores would amount to $1.7 million in 2014, increasing to $3.0 million by 2031.

If we allocate the available sales potential and assume some 5,700 square feet of miscellaneous retail space is constructed as part of Pearson Plaza, performing at an average sales performance level between $200 and $350 per square foot (expressed in 2011 dollars), there would be residual market demand to support additional miscellaneous retail space elsewhere in Elliot Lake in future years. These sales performance levels are considered reasonable based on the average sales performance level for this store category in Ontario. After considering the 5,700 square feet of miscellaneous retail space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, there would still be residual market demand, which would warrant up to approximately 4,600 square feet of additional miscellaneous retail space in the Trade Area by 2031.

Recognizing the majority of sales support for miscellaneous retail space in Pearson Plaza would be derived from future population and expenditure growth in the Primary Zone, any impacts on existing miscellaneous retail stores in Elliot Lake are expected to be negligible. There are expected to no sales transfers from existing competitive stores in order to support the miscellaneous retail space proposed in Elliot Lake. In Figure 3-9 we have provided an estimate of the residual market demand for additional miscellaneous retail space in the Primary Zone. A detailed analysis of the impact of additional miscellaneous retail space on existing miscellaneous retail stores is provided in Appendix F.

26 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-9: MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STORE ANALYSIS

MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL ANALYSIS (1

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031

Primary Zone Miscellaneous Retail ($Millions) $ 3.2 $ 4.5 $ 4.6 $ 5.0 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (2 66.4% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 2.1 $ 3.2 $ 3.2 $ 3.5 $ 3.9 $ 4.1 Residual Potential $ 1.1 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.8 $ 2.0

Secondary Zone Miscellaneous Retail ($Millions) $ 1.6 $ 2.2 $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 2.5 $ 2.7 Estimated Primary Zone Share % (2 60.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% Estimated Primary Zone Share ($ Millions) $ 1.0 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 1.6 $ 1.8 Residual $ 0.4 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 $ 0.8

Estimated Primary Zone Share % Total Miscellaneous Retail ($Millions) $ 4.8 $ 6.7 $ 6.9 $ 7.4 $ 8.0 $ 8.5 Total Estimated Primary Zone Share ($Millions) $ 3.1 $ 4.6 $ 4.7 $ 5.1 $ 5.5 $ 5.8 Estimated Primary Zone Share % 64.6% 68.7% 68.1% 68.9% 68.8% 68.4%

Existing Sales from Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 $ 3.1 Residual Potential ($Millions) $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7

$ 358 Existing Miscellaneous Stores (9,625 sq.ft.) Sales/Sq.Ft. Levels (Including average Inflow of 10%):

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL Miscellaneous SPACE - Primary Zone (including inflow, excluding sales transfers) Additional Residual Potential Available $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 Plus Inflow Sales @ 10.0% (3 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.3 $ 0.3 TOTAL ADDITIONAL SALES POTENTIAL AVAILABLE $ 1.7 $ 1.8 $ 2.2 $ 2.7 $ 3.0

WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SQUARE FEET (4 @ $200 per sq. ft. 8,300 8,900 11,100 13,300 15,100 @ $275 per sq. ft. 6,100 6,500 8,100 9,700 11,000 @ $300 per sq. ft. 5,600 5,900 7,400 8,900 10,100 @ $325 per sq. ft. 5,100 5,500 6,800 8,200 9,300 @ $350 per sq. ft. 4,800 5,100 6,300 7,600 8,600

2011 Dollars 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 PROPOSED MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL SPACE - PRIMARY ZONE Pearson Plaza Proposed Space (square feet GLA) 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 Estimated Sales per Square Foot $ 200 $ 218 $ 262 $ 306 $ 350 Total Estimated Sales ($Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 2.0 Less Inflow (%) (2 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Less Inflow ($Millions) $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 $ 0.2 Total Sales Volume From Study Area Residents ($Millions) $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.8

PROPOSED NEW SPACE SALES TRANSFER OR RESIDUAL DEMAND Total Proposed Miscellaneous Space (sq. ft.) 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 Total Sales Volume ($ Millions) $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 1.5 $ 1.7 $ 2.0 Total Sales Volume Required from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.4 $ 1.5 $ 1.8 Total Sales Volume Available from Study Area Residents (excludes inflow) $ 1.5 $ 1.6 $ 2.0 $ 2.4 $ 2.7 Sales Transfer Required From Existing Stores (-)/Residual Market Demand (+) $ 0.5 $ 0.5 $ 0.6 $ 0.9 $ 0.9

Warranted Additional Space Elliot Lake - General Location(s) (excluding inflow) @ $200 per sq. ft. 2,500 2,500 3,000 4,500 4,600 @ $275 per sq. ft. 1,800 1,800 2,200 3,300 3,300 @ $300 per sq. ft. 1,700 1,700 2,000 3,000 3,100 @ $325 per sq. ft. 1,500 1,500 1,800 2,800 2,800 @ $350 per sq. ft. 1,400 1,400 1,700 2,600 2,600

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Miscellaneous retail includes sporting goods, hobby, music, book and toy stores, in addition to florists, office supply, gift/novelty, used merchandise and pet stores. 2) urbanmetrics inc., based on online consumer survey results, future years based on urbanMetrics estimates. 3) urbanMetrics estimate. 4) Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.

27 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.3 PER CAPITA SPACE ANALYSIS

A per capita space analysis has been used to determine the amount of additional service space warranted in the Trade Area. In the following subsection, we have summarized our methodology and assumptions utilized in our per capita space analysis, which is detailed in Figure 3-10.

Based on our experience in other similar sized Ontario markets, as well as our review of the existing retail/service supply situation in Elliot Lake we have estimated Trade Area residents’ Required Square Feet Per Capita for each service category. In this analysis we have utilized the Primary Zone (City of Elliot Lake) population to determine the amount of warranted additional space.

The space per capita ratios are applied to the anticipated Primary Zone population projections to provide an estimate of the Total Warranted Service Space required by Trade Area residents. Assuming approximately 17.5 square feet per capita, Primary Zone residents could support approximately 204,200 square feet of services space square feet of retail and service space. The Total Warranted Services Space in the Primary Zone is expected to increase to 220,800 by 2031.

The target local shares, or the percentage of space that could be supported locally by Elliot Lake residents, have been estimated for a range of service establishments. Recognizing the relatively isolated location of Elliot Lake, we have used a 90% local capture rate, and a 10% inflow factor to determine the Total Warranted Services Space.

Based on the existing inventory, there is approxaimtely 175,700 square feet of existing services space in the Primary Zone, which translates to 14.9 square feet of existing services space per capita. In order to determine the Warranted Additional Services Space, the existing inventory has been subtracted from the Total Warranted Services Space. As a result, there would be approximately 41,100 square feet of warranted additional services space in 2014; increasing to 53,900 by 2031.

28 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-10: PER CAPITA SERVICES SPACE ANALYSIS – ELLIOT LAKE

Per Capital Services Analysis - ROUNDED Required Total Warranted Services Space (1 Existing Existing Warranted Additional Services Space Square Feet Inventory Square Feet Per Capita 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 (2 Per Capita 2011 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Population - City of Elliot Lake 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 11,790 12,130 12,220 12,480 12,690 12,750 Food Services and Drinking 3.5 Places 40,900 42,000 42,300 43,200 44,000 44,200 39,000 3.3 1,900 3,000 3,300 4,200 5,000 5,200 Cultural, Entertainment and 2.5 Recreation 29,200 30,000 30,200 30,900 31,400 31,600 22,500 1.9 6,700 7,500 7,700 8,400 8,900 9,100 Finance and Insurance 2.0 23,300 24,000 24,200 24,700 25,100 25,200 27,900 2.4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Health Care Services 4.0 46,700 48,000 48,400 49,400 50,300 50,500 35,300 3.0 11,400 12,700 13,100 14,100 15,000 15,200 Insurance and Real Estate 1.0 11,700 12,000 12,100 12,400 12,600 12,600 5,400 0.5 6,300 6,600 6,700 7,000 7,200 7,200 Personal and Household Goods 0.5 Repair and Maintenance 5,800 6,000 6,000 6,200 6,300 6,300 2,700 0.2 3,100 3,300 3,300 3,500 3,600 3,600 Personal Care Services 2.0 23,300 24,000 24,200 24,700 25,100 25,200 11,600 1.0 11,700 12,400 12,600 13,100 13,500 13,600 Professional, Scientific & 1.5 Technical Services 17,500 18,000 18,100 18,500 18,800 18,900 20,200 1.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Selected Office Administrative 0.5 Services 5,800 6,000 6,000 6,200 6,300 6,300 11,100 0.9 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a TOTAL WARRANTED SERVICES SPACE 17.5 204,200 210,000 211,500 216,200 219,900 220,800 175,700 14.9 41,100 45,500 46,700 50,300 53,200 53,900

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) In our calculation of Total Warranted Services Space we have assumed that services in the Primary Zone would have a high capture rate (90%) , similar to most other retail/service commercial categories in the local market. The high local capture rates in the Primary Zone can be attributed to the location, which is somewhat isolated from other cities and subsequently additional retail/service commercial alternatives. At the same time, we have assumed that inflow rates would be relatively low (10%) . 2) Only includes selected services establishments located in Elliot Lake. Certain establishments have been excluded, including those located outside of Elliot Lake, as well as Automobile dealerships/service centres, the Denison Office Building, which is comprised of a number of selected office and administrative establishments. Also, other services have not been included in our per capita space analysis.

29 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

3.4 RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS

Figure 3-11 provides a summary of the warranted retail and service commercial space in Elliot Lake based on the result of residual market analysis and our per capita space analysis. We have summarized the warranted retail/service commercial space under three scenarios: (1) High- End of Typical Sales Performance Levels; (2) Average Sales Performance Levels; and (3) Low- End of Typical Sales Performance Levels for each retail store cateogry.

Assuming average sales performance levels for each store category, there would be an estimated 90,900 square feet of warranted additional retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake in 2014. By 2031, the amount of warranted additional retail/service commercial space is expected to increase to approximately 154,700 square feet.

30 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 3-11: TOTAL WARRANTED SPACE SUMMARY

High Sales Performance Level Sales Per Square Inflow Store Category Foot ($) (%) 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $700 10% 3,300 3,800 5,900 7,600 9,500 Clothing and Accessories Stores $400 10% 5,800 6,100 7,500 9,200 10,500 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $450 15% 1,000 1,600 2,600 4,200 5,600 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $350 15% 2,000 3,000 5,700 8,700 11,100 General Merchandise $500 15% 20,900 22,800 27,800 32,500 37,300 Miscellanous Retailers $350 10% 4,800 5,100 6,300 7,600 8,600 TOTAL NFSR SPACE 37,800 42,400 55,800 69,800 82,600 Supermarkets $600 10% 2,000 2,400 3,900 5,000 6,000 Grocery/Other Food Stores $350 10% 300 300 600 1,000 1,100 TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,300 2,700 4,500 6,000 7,100

Food Services and Drinking Places n/a n/a 3,000 3,300 4,200 5,000 5,200 All Other Commercial Services n/a n/a 42,500 43,400 46,100 48,200 48,700 TOTAL SERVICE SPACE n/a n/a 45,500 46,700 50,300 53,200 53,900 TOTAL WARRANTED SPACE 85,600 91,800 110,600 129,000 143,600

Average Sales Performance Level Sales Per Square Inflow Store Category Foot ($) (%) 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $650 10% 3,600 4,100 6,300 8,200 10,200 Clothing and Accessories Stores $350 10% 6,700 7,000 8,600 10,500 12,000 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $400 15% 1,200 1,800 2,900 4,700 6,300 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $300 15% 2,400 3,500 6,700 10,200 12,900 General Merchandise $450 15% 23,300 25,400 30,800 36,100 41,400 Miscellanous Retailers $300 10% 5,600 5,900 7,400 8,900 10,100 TOTAL NFSR SPACE 42,800 47,700 62,700 78,600 92,900

Supermarkets (1 $550 10% 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600 Grocery/Other Food Stores $300 10% 400 400 700 1,100 1,300 TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,600 3,000 4,900 6,600 7,900

Low Sales Performance Level Sales Per Square Inflow Store Category Foot ($) (%) 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $600 10% 3,900 4,400 6,900 8,900 11,100 Clothing and Accessories Stores $300 10% 7,800 8,100 10,000 12,200 14,000 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores $350 15% 1,300 2,000 3,400 5,400 7,200 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $250 15% 2,800 4,200 8,000 12,200 15,500 General Merchandise $400 15% 26,200 28,500 34,700 40,600 46,600 Miscellanous Retailers $200 10% 8,300 8,900 11,100 13,300 15,100 TOTAL NFSR SPACE 50,300 56,100 74,100 92,600 109,500

Supermarkets (1 $500 10% 2,400 2,900 4,700 6,000 7,200 Grocery/Other Food Stores $250 10% 400 400 900 1,300 1,600 TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,800 3,300 5,600 7,300 8,800

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Warranted supermarket space does not include the reconstruction of the Foodland store. We have assumed this store will be reconstructed at a size of approximately 28,000 square feet.

31 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

4 COMMERCIAL STRATEGY

4.1 WARRANTED SPACE IN ELLIOT LAKE OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA

Based on the results of our residual market analysis and per capita space analysis, the Total Warranted Space in 2014 is approximately 90,900 square feet. It is important to recognize that our analysis does not include the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket at an estimated size of 28,000 square feet. Excluding both the new Foodland supermarket, and the new public library, Pearson Plaza currently proposes approximately 52,700 square feet of retail/service commercial space. urbanMetrics compared the Total Warranted Space throughout the study period to the space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza in order to determine to the Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake. As indicated by Figure 4-1, the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza would fulfill the short-term retail space demands in the local market.

FIGURE 4-1: WARRANTED SPACE IN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA

Average Sales Performance Level Total Warranted Proposed Pearson Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake Store Category Space 2014 Plaza (1 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 3,600 2,000 1,600 2,100 4,300 6,200 8,200 Clothing and Accessories Stores 6,700 8,600 n/a n/a 0 1,900 3,400 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores 1,200 2,500 n/a n/a 400 2,200 3,800 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores 2,400 0 2,400 3,500 6,700 10,200 12,900 General Merchandise 23,300 25,600 n/a n/a 5,200 10,500 15,800 Miscellanous Retailers 5,600 5,700 n/a 200 1,700 3,200 4,400 TOTAL NFSR SPACE 42,800 44,400 4,000 5,800 18,300 34,200 48,500

Supermarkets (2 2,200 0 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600 Grocery/Other Food Stores 400 700 n/a n/a 0 400 600 TOTAL FSR SPACE 2,600 700 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,900 7,200

Food Services and Drinking Places 3,000 5,900 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a All Other Commercial Services 42,500 1,700 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000 TOTAL SERVICE SPACE 45,500 7,600 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000 TOTAL WARRANTED SPACE OUTSIDE PEARSON PLAZA 90,900 52,700 47,000 53,100 69,800 89,500 105,700

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc 1) Based on preliminary leasing information provided by the selected development proponent on November 12, 2012. 2) It is important to reconize that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket (28,000 SQFT) has not been included in our analysis. The majority of the Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake in 2014 and 2016 can be attributed to service commercial uses, recognizing that most of the space proposed as part of Pearson Plaza is retail oriented. Only an estimated 4,000 to 5,800 square feet of additional retail space would be required at locations elsewhere in Elliot Lake between 2014 and 2016. While Pearson Plaza is expected to account for the majority of the Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake in 2014 and 2016, our analysis indicates that there will be opportunity for up to 40,800 square feet of additional service commercial space at locations elsewhere in Elliot Lake.

32 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

Furthermore, there will be market opportunity for even more service commercial space, along with additional retail space in the local market by 2021. Moreover, between 2021 and 2031, the amount of Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake is expected to increase substantially. By 2031, there is expected to be approximately 105,700 square feet of Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake, in locations outside of Pearson Plaza, including 48,500 square feet of NFSR space, 7,200 square feet of FSR space, and 50,000 square feet of service space

4.2 SUMMARY OF MARKET DEPTH

As part of urbanMetrics’ retail market analysis, we have assembled a list of retail chains that already have a presence in smaller communities located in Northern Ontario, which could potentially locate in Elliot Lake. In order to determine the market depth, urbanMetrics has identified retail chains which already operate in smaller Northern Ontario communities similar to Elliot Lake, and determined the average size of each retailer. These retailers are summarized in Appendix G. The total size of these establishments has been calculated, and the potential retail chains have been grouped by store category. The total market depth has been estimated at 473,020 square feet, as indicated by store category in Figure 4-2.

FIGURE 4-2: PROPOSED PEARSON PLAZA AND MARKET DEPTH COMPARISON

Average Sales Performance Level Pearson Plaza (1 Summary Percentage of Total of Market Proposed Total Market Stores Store Category Depth Space Depth Proposed Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 32,460 2,000 6.2% 1 Clothing and Accessories Stores 57,640 8,600 14.9% 4 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores 54,000 2,500 4.6% 1 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores 16,900 0 n/a 0 General Merchandise 246,090 25,600 10.4% 3 Miscellanous Retailers n/a 5,700 n/a 3 TOTAL NFSR SPACE 407,090 44,400 10.9% 12

Supermarkets (2 n/a 0 n/a 0 Grocery/Other Food Stores 11,030 700 6.3% 1 TOTAL FSR SPACE 11,030 700 6.3% 1

Food Services and Drinking Places (3 54,900 5,900 10.7% 3 All Other Commercial Services n/a 1,700 n/a 2 TOTAL SERVICE SPACE 54,900 7,600 13.8% 5 TOTAL 473,020 52,700 11.1% 18

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc

1) Based on preliminary leasing information provided by the selected development proponent on November 12, 2012. Does not include the new Library which would likely be approximately 11,000 square feet, or approximately 5,300 square feet of space for future development/TBD. 2) It is important to reconize that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket (28,000 SQFT) has not been included in our analysis. 3) There are three food services and drinking paces currently proposed, in addition to a food court which has been estimated at approximately 3,800 square feet. 4) To determine the number of additional store required for all other commercial services, we have assumed an average store size of 2,000 square feet.

33 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

Figure 4-2 also indicates the percentage of the total market depth represented by Pearson Plaza. Overall, the space currently proposed as part Pearson Plaza would account for an estimated 11.1% of the total market depth. The proposed concept plan for Pearson Plaza includes an estimated 18 retail/service commercial establishments, in addition to a small food court.

Figure 4-3 indicates the percentage of the total market depth represented by the warranted additional space in Elliot Lake. The total warranted additional space in Elliot Lake would account for 1.0% of the total market depth in 2014. By 2031, the total warranted additional space in Elliot Lake would account for 17.4% of the total market depth. As a result, the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza, along with the warranted additional space in Elliot Lake would collectively account for 28.5% of the total market depth.

We have also estimated the number of additional stores required at locations elsewhere in the local market based on the amount of warranted additional space, and the list of retail chains which could potentially locate in Elliot Lake. The estimated number of additional stores required in Elliot Lake has been estimated at 21 in 2014; with the majority of these stores being service oriented. By 2031, the number of additional stores required at locations elsewhere in Elliot Lake has been estimated 34 to 35, including 9 to 10 stores which are retail oriented.

34 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE 4-3: WARRANTED ADDITIONAL SPACE IN ELLIOT LAKE AND MARKET DEPTH COMPARISON

Average Sales Performance Level Warranted Additional Space in Elliot Lake (Outside Pearson Plaza) Summary Total Warranted Additional Space Percentage of Total Market Depth Number of Additional Stores Required of Market Store Category Depth 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 2014 2016 2021 2026 2031 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 32,460 1,600 2,100 4,300 6,200 8,200 4.9% 6.5% 13.2% 19.1% 25.3% 1 1 2 2 - 3 3 Clothing and Accessories Stores 57,640 0 0 0 1,900 3,400 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 5.9% 0 0 0 1 1 - 2 Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores 54,000 0 0 400 2,200 3,800 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 4.1% 7.0% 0 0 0 1 1 Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores 16,900 2,400 3,500 6,700 10,200 12,900 14.2% 20.7% 39.6% 60.4% 76.3% 0 0 0 0 1 General Merchandise 246,090 0 0 5,200 10,500 15,800 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 4.3% 6.4% 0 0 1 1 - 2 2 Miscellanous Retailers n/a 0 200 1,700 3,200 4,400 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL NFSR SPACE 407,090 4,000 5,800 18,300 34,200 48,500 1.0% 1.4% 4.5% 8.4% 11.9% 1 1 3 5 - 7 8 -9

Supermarkets (2 n/a 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,500 6,600 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 Grocery/Other Food Stores 11,030 0 0 0 400 600 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 5.4% 0 0 0 0 1 TOTAL FSR SPACE 11,030 2,200 2,600 4,200 5,900 7,200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 5.4% 0 0 0 0 1

Food Services and Drinking Places (3 54,900 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 All Other Commercial Services (4 n/a 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 20 22 24 25 25 TOTAL SERVICE SPACE 54,900 40,800 44,700 47,300 49,400 50,000 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 20 22 24 25 25 TOTAL 473,020 47,000 53,100 69,800 89,500 105,700 1.0% 1.4% 4.5% 12.0% 17.4% 21 23 27 30 - 32 34 - 35

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc 1) Based on preliminary leasing information provided by the selected development proponent on November 12, 2012. Does not include the new Library which would likely be approximately 11,000 square feet, or approximately 5,300 square feet of space for future development/TBD. 2) It is important to reconize that the reconstruction of the Foodland supermarket (28,000 SQFT) has not been included in our analysis. 3) There are three food services and drinking paces currently proposed, in addition to a food court which has been estimated at approximately 3,800 square feet. 4) To determine the number of additional store required for all other commercial services, we have assumed an average store size of 2,000 square feet.

35 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

4.3 RETAIL ATTRACTION STRATEGY

An underlying theme identified in the community engagement session, undertaken by urbanMetrics and Brook McIlroy, was a lack of retail services in Elliot Lake and its impediment to the economy. Overall, about 1 in 4 people at the community engagement indicated that lack of retail was the biggest impediment to Elliot Lake’s future and almost 1 in 5 indicated that limited retail choice or no familiar chains was the biggest impediment to the Elliot Lake economy. When asked what role the municipality should play in attracting business, about 1 in 4 people at the community engagement session indicated that the municipality should promote and attract investment, and about 1 in 7 indicated the municipality should be closely focused on improving retail services. Based on these results, urbanMetrics has prepared a strategy for the municipality to attract retailers to Elliot Lake. These steps include initiatives already being addressed by Elliot Lake, such as the downtown revitalization and community beautification, to the development of information packets to attract retailers to the community, as well as strengthening relationships with current commercial property owners.

4.3.1 DOWNTOWN REVITALIZATION, BEAUTIFICATION, AND EVENTS

In the past, Elliot Lake has undertaken initiatives aimed at downtown revitalization and community beautification, which have been successful according to members of the community. Overall, about 1 in 4 people at the community engagement session indicated that community beautification had a big impact on the community and about 1 in 5 people indicated that they felt the Downtown Revitalization also had an impact on the community. In attracting retailers to Elliot Lake, it is important that the municipality continue to invest in these types of programs. In addition to these investments, people at the community engagement session also felt that the municipality should play a role in attracting business by establishing a farmer’s market and promoting special events.

4.3.2 DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION PACKETS TARGETED AT SPECIFIC RETAILERS/SERVICES

An important recruitment tool in attracting retailers to Elliot Lake is the development of an information packet that highlights aspects of Elliot Lake that are appealing to retailers who may be considering expansion. This packet should include demographic data, in addition to location intelligence, and lifestyle data tailored to each retail group that Elliot Lake is trying to attract. In addition to highlighting sales potential in the community, the packet should also list specific demographic data. Some examples include:

• Population and households – current level and growth forecasts • Median age and age distribution • Average and median household incomes • Education Levels • Percent that are homeowners

36 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

• Percent that are families with children • Number of people commuting to Elliot Lake for work

In addition to basic demographic data, the information packet should also include location intelligence and lifestyle (psychography) data.

• Location intelligence: allows potential retailers to see information in a geospatial context, such as, the trade area, where consumers in Elliot Lake spend money, where retail competition is located or where there is retail space for lease. This could also include heat maps such as average household income and income density. • Lifestyle data: these data go beyond basic demographics to look at individuals and their interest. Consumers are broken down into a variety of segments to more accurately identify potential customers for retailers. There are a variety of companies that provide lifestyle data, which Elliot Lake can purchase and incorporate into their information packet.

In addition to these data sources, Elliot Lake has the added benefit of including information obtained from the community engagement session by urbanMetrics and Brook McIlroy, which identified specific retailers that Elliot Lake residents were most likely to visit if the retailer was in Elliot Lake. Some of the most popular retailers from each retail group, and the percentage of respondents who indicated that they would shop there regularly, include: Bulk Barn (64%), The Brick (34%), Shoppers: Home Health Care (33%), Payless Shoes (29%), Mark’s (25%), Dollarama (25%) and Swiss Chalet (25%).

In addition to underserved segments identified through lifestyle data, members of the community who attended the community engagement session also listed services that they felt were under-represented in Elliot Lake, including: Health services (23%), Property Repair and Maintenance (12%), Food, Nutrition and In-Home Catering (12%).

Once an information packet has been prepared, a list of contact people at potential retailers should be assembled and an information packet should be supplied to these contacts. The municipality could also make the information packets available on the Invest in Elliot Lake website.

4.3.3 FRANCHISE ENGAGEMENT

Based on results from the community engagement session by urbanMetrics and Brook McIlroy, many Elliot Lake residents feel it is the municipality’s responsibility to engage franchisees and attract them to Elliot Lake. Overall, about 22% of Elliot Lake residents indicated that they would target business franchisees if they managed Elliot Lake’s marketing budget.

One option for attracting franchisees is advertising through the Canadian Franchise Association (CFA). The Canadian Franchise Association represents over 500 corporate members Canada- wide and educates members through events, programs and publications. While the Canadian Franchise Show and CFA website are generally used by those seeking to start a franchise, Elliot

37 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

Lake could use the show or CFA website to advertise its advantages as a destination for franchisees to invest.

To advertise through the CFA, you must be a member, at an annual cost of $2,050. In the past, there have been municipalities, such as Wasaga Beach, who have been members of the CFA and advertised in their trade publications. Elliot Lake could rent a booth or table top at the Canadian Franchise Show or advertise in CFA publications like FranchiseCanada or FranchiseVoice, which are newsletters distributed to franchisors. The cost of ads in FranchiseCanada range from $1,040 for a 1/4 page advertisement to $3,200 for a double page spread. Information from the CFA indicates that 47% of prospective franchisees are willing to commute or relocate for a franchise opportunity. In addition to advertising at the Canadian Franchise Show or in a trade publication, discussions with CFA have indicated that they are exploring the idea of dedicating a section of their new website to highlighting municipalities who are interested in attracting franchisees. It was also indicated that this section of the website may not require the municipality to have a membership with the CFA.

In addition to engaging franchises through the CFA website or Canadian Franchise Show, Elliot Lake could also advertise its advantages as a destination for retail investment through the Monday Report on Retailers, which is a weekly newsletter that reports on news for retail chains. The newsletter reports on the expansion plans of selected retailers, but Elliot Lake could potentially advertise its advantages as a destination for retailers.

4.3.4 FOSTERING RELATIONSHIPS WITH COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OWNERS AND DEVELOPERS

In addition to attracting new retailers to Elliot Lake, it is important that the municipality nurture relationships with commercial property owners and retailers currently in the community. By working with commercial property owners, the municipality can understand the challenges they face, specifically related to attracting retailers. The municipality can also keep track of when leases are expiring and highlight upcoming vacancies in information packets to potential retailers.

4.4 CONCLUSIONS

Our retail market analysis indicates that the space currently proposed as part of Pearson Plaza will adequately serve the short-term retail market demands of local residents in Elliot Lake, although there would also be market support to justify a significant amount of service commercial space during the same period, as well as some additional retail space. Over the longer-term, after 2021, our analysis indicates that there would be market opportunity to support the addition of further retail and service commercial space in Elliot Lake.

The amount of warranted additional retail/service commercial space is expected to continue to increase over the duration of the study period, in response to population and expenditure

38 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario growth. As a result, there will be market opportunity for additional retail space, particularly beyond the year 2021, in the following store categories:

• Pharmacy and personal care stores; • Clothing and accessories stores; • Furniture, Electronics, and Home Furnishings stores; • Building and Outdoor Home Supplies stores; • General Merchandise stores; and • Various Commercial services.

The majority of the additional services space required to serve the local market is related to health care services and personal care services. With the addition of more retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake, local residents will have access to a full range of retail/service commercial establishments.

39 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX A – ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The Ontario Ministry of Finance (“MOF”) provides population projections for each of the 49 Census Divisions in Ontario. These projections were undertaken by the MOF to update the projections released in the Spring of 2011, which were based on the 2006 Census. These projections have been recently updated to reflect the 2011 Census data from Statistics Canada, including demographic patterns relating to fertility, mortality and migration. The updated projections from the MOF were completed under three scenarios: low, medium and high growth. The medium growth scenario is considered the ‘reference scenario’ and has been used for the purposes of our analysis. urbanMetrics has used the updated MOF projections to forecast future population levels in the Trade Area. For each Trade Area Zone, we determined share of the total population in the Algoma Census Division based on the 2011 Census. This percentage has been used to determine the amount of growth in the Algoma Census Division, which can be attributed to the Primary and Secondary Zones in future years.

Figure A-1 provides the MOF population projections, by age group, for the Algoma Census division. Figure A-2 indicates the shares of the total population in the Algoma Census Division, which are accounted for by the communities in the Primary and Secondary Zones. Figure A-3 provides a summary of the population forecast, by age group, for the Primary Zone. Figure A-4 provides a summary of the population forecast, by age group, for the communities which comprise the Secondary Zone (including Blind River, North Shore, Spanish, Mississagi River IRI, and Serpent River IRI). These population projections have been adjusted to account for net undercoverage in the 2011 Census.

40 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE A-1: ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2011 - 2036 Total 118,990 118,700 118,440 116,980 116,410 116,220 116,020 115,810 115,120 114,860 114,590 114,310 113,730 113,430 113,130 118,200 117,570 117,370 117,180 117,980 117,770 116,790 116,600 115,600 115,360 114,030 90+ 890 1,050 1,170 1,850 2,070 2,100 2,140 2,180 2,310 2,380 2,470 2,560 2,740 2,840 2,980 1,270 1,540 1,640 1,740 1,380 1,460 1,940 2,020 2,210 2,250 2,670 2,060 2,080 2,160 2,520 2,520 2,600 2,660 2,760 3,070 3,170 3,310 3,530 3,920 4,070 4,170 2,270 2,550 2,570 2,540 2,370 2,470 2,520 2,500 2,880 3,010 3,730 85-89 3,740 3,840 3,850 3,830 4,250 4,310 4,430 4,590 5,370 5,560 5,670 5,750 6,120 6,340 6,650 3,780 3,660 3,670 3,760 3,730 3,720 3,950 4,100 4,870 5,110 5,880 80-84 4,710 4,620 4,620 5,400 6,140 6,430 6,650 6,770 7,220 7,460 7,810 8,060 8,310 8,440 8,500 4,710 5,050 5,220 5,270 4,770 4,890 5,570 5,870 6,830 6,960 8,220 75-79 5,790 5,940 6,100 7,600 7,900 8,180 8,430 8,820 9,320 9,440 9,480 9,470 9,320 9,150 8,750 6,130 6,760 7,050 7,370 6,260 6,440 7,710 7,770 9,080 9,250 9,450 70-74 7,110 7,420 7,720 9,130 9,980 9,910 9,700 9,250 8,730 7,830 7,460 7,350 8,070 8,460 8,580 8,870 8,300 8,410 9,550 9,820 8,250 65-69 10,040 10,150 10,160 10,130 10,080 8,770 8,790 8,900 9,830 9,340 7,860 7,470 7,340 7,310 7,070 6,870 6,690 9,180 9,440 9,870 8,790 8,300 7,210 60-64 10,430 10,280 10,070 10,140 10,290 10,330 10,410 10,350 9,980 9,760 8,180 7,720 7,330 7,190 6,910 6,710 6,510 6,390 6,300 6,350 6,400 9,240 8,680 7,160 7,050 6,280 55-59 10,240 10,380 10,400 10,360 10,250 10,020 10,480 10,430 9,860 8,470 7,960 7,510 7,110 6,830 6,690 6,480 6,280 6,050 6,100 6,150 6,140 6,340 6,510 6,660 9,580 9,050 6,980 6,940 6,160 6,030 6,260 50-54 10,340 10,250 10,120 8,970 8,370 7,860 7,410 6,840 6,730 6,590 6,360 5,900 5,910 5,970 6,000 6,170 6,330 6,480 6,630 6,900 7,000 7,030 7,000 6,870 6,150 6,030 5,980 6,100 6,760 45-49 6,950 6,920 6,790 6,650 6,060 5,920 5,930 5,990 6,110 6,180 6,340 6,500 6,930 7,030 7,050 7,080 6,880 6,690 6,510 6,400 6,180 6,020 5,990 6,650 6,780 7,020 40-44 6,110 5,980 5,820 5,820 5,880 5,990 6,050 6,210 6,670 6,820 6,910 6,920 6,730 6,530 6,330 6,130 5,800 5,640 5,530 5,890 5,920 6,370 6,530 6,950 6,880 5,930 35-39 5,680 5,610 5,720 5,770 6,260 6,410 6,570 6,660 6,580 6,400 6,190 5,990 5,440 5,280 5,170 5,040 4,950 4,910 4,890 5,940 6,110 6,640 6,660 5,780 5,570 4,980 30-34 6,420 6,570 6,730 6,900 6,980 6,860 6,640 6,390 5,690 5,550 5,380 5,270 5,030 4,990 4,950 4,940 4,960 4,990 5,030 7,000 6,970 6,150 5,920 5,130 5,060 4,960 25-29 7,840 7,870 7,730 7,470 6,600 6,340 6,180 5,980 5,640 5,600 5,570 5,510 5,520 5,550 5,610 5,630 5,610 5,610 5,610 7,170 6,880 5,880 5,710 5,500 5,520 5,610 20-24 7,160 6,840 6,550 6,390 5,880 5,800 5,760 5,730 5,670 5,670 5,700 5,770 5,750 5,740 5,730 5,770 5,820 5,830 5,830 6,170 6,060 5,660 5,640 5,780 5,760 5,800 15-19 5,980 5,790 5,710 5,670 5,550 5,580 5,570 5,600 5,650 5,640 5,620 5,600 5,680 5,680 5,670 5,660 5,590 5,550 5,490 5,640 5,560 5,670 5,690 5,630 5,660 5,630 10-14 5-9 5,330 5,330 5,370 5,360 5,490 5,450 5,430 5,400 5,420 5,430 5,420 5,410 5,300 5,250 5,200 5,130 5,000 4,930 4,870 5,400 5,480 5,370 5,400 5,380 5,350 5,060 0-4 5,190 5,200 5,150 5,120 5,060 5,070 5,060 5,050 4,950 4,900 4,840 4,770 4,560 4,500 4,430 4,380 4,280 4,250 4,220 5,080 5,040 5,030 5,000 4,700 4,630 4,320 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 2018 2019 2020 2023 2024 2025 2026 2029 2030 2031 2032 2034 2035 2036 2015 2016 2021 2022 2027 2028 2033 Algoma Year

41 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE A-2: PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ZONE COMMUNITIES SHARE OF ALGOMA POPULATION

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 Population Elliot Lake 335 385 430 555 440 340 335 405 475 710 900 935 1,130 1,190 1,145 820 505 235 80 11,350 Blind River 170 160 165 195 200 195 150 160 185 275 360 345 290 250 160 140 85 45 15 3,550 The North Shore 10 15 15 25 10 10 5 15 20 50 60 70 70 55 45 15 10 5 0 505 Spanish 25 20 40 55 35 25 30 25 35 65 70 70 55 45 35 25 20 10 0 695 Mississagi River 8 IRI 25 30 30 35 30 20 30 25 35 40 40 30 15 5 5 5 5 0 0 390 Serpent River 7 IRI 40 20 30 35 25 20 25 20 10 30 30 25 15 10 15 10 5 0 5 370 Algoma 5,210 5,235 5,840 7,160 6,660 5,805 5,680 5,830 6,795 8,885 10,265 9,550 8,905 7,060 5,950 4,800 3,555 1,845 835 115,870

CSD share of CD Elliot Lake 6.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.8% 6.6% 5.9% 5.9% 6.9% 7.0% 8.0% 8.8% 9.8% 12.7% 16.9% 19.2% 17.1% 14.2% 12.7% 9.6% 9.8% Blind River 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 3.1% The North Shore 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% Spanish 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% Mississagi River 8 IRI 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Serpent River 7 IRI 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on the MOF Population Projections - Reference Scenario 2011 - 2036.

FIGURE A-3: PRIMARY ZONE POPULATION FORECAST

Elliot Lake 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 (Census) 335 385 430 555 440 340 335 405 475 710 900 935 1,130 1,190 1,145 820 505 235 80 11,350 2011 (forecast) 334 392 440 555 518 376 335 424 486 717 907 977 1,113 1,198 1,114 805 531 262 85 11,570 2012 334 392 426 530 520 385 331 415 484 669 899 1,003 1,115 1,251 1,143 789 545 265 101 11,597 2013 331 395 420 508 511 394 337 404 475 628 887 1,016 1,129 1,301 1,174 789 547 275 112 11,635 2014 329 394 417 495 494 404 340 404 465 592 864 1,018 1,165 1,360 1,180 805 537 289 122 11,675 2015 327 397 415 478 474 410 350 409 447 559 840 1,026 1,198 1,399 1,205 815 530 302 132 11,714 2016 324 403 409 470 455 408 360 411 432 549 793 1,021 1,252 1,418 1,239 835 528 315 140 11,764 2017 325 404 409 456 436 409 369 408 424 547 743 1,014 1,287 1,426 1,301 863 520 325 148 11,812 2018 326 401 411 450 419 402 378 416 414 538 698 1,004 1,306 1,446 1,357 892 521 327 157 11,861 2019 325 399 410 446 408 389 387 420 415 527 658 981 1,311 1,495 1,418 900 534 324 167 11,916 2020 325 397 412 444 395 374 393 431 419 508 623 956 1,324 1,539 1,463 923 544 321 177 11,967 2021 323 395 417 439 388 360 392 443 421 491 612 905 1,321 1,610 1,484 952 561 321 186 12,020 2022 321 397 419 437 377 347 393 454 419 482 608 850 1,313 1,655 1,495 1,003 582 318 194 12,065 2023 318 399 416 440 373 333 388 463 427 471 599 801 1,304 1,682 1,520 1,049 604 321 198 12,107 2024 315 399 415 440 370 325 377 474 432 472 587 756 1,278 1,692 1,574 1,098 612 331 201 12,149 2025 311 399 414 442 368 315 365 480 443 477 568 718 1,247 1,711 1,622 1,136 629 339 205 12,189 2026 307 398 412 447 364 309 353 481 454 479 551 704 1,185 1,713 1,697 1,157 652 352 209 12,223 SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on the MOF Population Projections - Reference Scenario 2011 - 2036.

42 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE A-4: SECONDARY ZONE POPULATION FORECAST

Blind River 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 (Census) 170 160 165 195 200 195 150 160 185 275 360 345 290 250 160 140 85 45 15 3,550 2011 (forecast) 169 163 169 195 235 216 150 168 189 278 363 361 286 252 156 137 89 50 16 3,641 2012 170 163 164 186 236 221 148 164 188 259 359 370 286 263 160 135 92 51 19 3,634 2013 168 164 161 178 232 226 151 160 185 243 355 375 290 273 164 135 92 53 21 3,627 2014 167 164 160 174 224 232 152 160 181 229 346 376 299 286 165 137 90 55 23 3,621 2015 166 165 159 168 215 235 157 162 174 217 336 379 307 294 168 139 89 58 25 3,613 2016 164 167 157 165 207 234 161 162 168 213 317 377 321 298 173 143 89 60 26 3,604 2017 165 168 157 160 198 234 165 161 165 212 297 374 330 300 182 147 88 62 28 3,593 2018 165 167 158 158 190 230 169 164 161 208 279 370 335 304 190 152 88 63 29 3,582 2019 165 166 157 157 186 223 174 166 161 204 263 362 336 314 198 154 90 62 31 3,570 2020 165 165 158 156 180 215 176 170 163 197 249 353 340 323 204 158 92 61 33 3,558 2021 164 164 160 154 177 207 175 175 164 190 245 334 339 338 207 162 94 61 35 3,547 2022 163 165 161 154 171 199 176 179 163 187 243 314 337 348 209 171 98 61 36 3,535 2023 162 166 160 154 169 191 174 183 166 183 240 296 335 353 212 179 102 61 37 3,523 2024 160 166 159 154 168 186 169 187 168 183 235 279 328 356 220 188 103 63 38 3,510 2025 158 166 159 155 167 181 163 190 173 185 227 265 320 359 227 194 106 65 38 3,498 2026 156 165 158 157 165 177 158 190 177 186 220 260 304 360 237 197 110 67 39 3,484

The North Shore 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 (Census) 10 15 15 25 10 10 5 15 20 50 60 70 70 55 45 15 10 5 - 505 2011 (forecast) 10 15 15 25 12 11 5 16 20 50 60 73 69 55 44 15 11 6 - 513 2012 10 15 15 24 12 11 5 15 20 47 60 75 69 58 45 14 11 6 - 513 2013 10 15 15 23 12 12 5 15 20 44 59 76 70 60 46 14 11 6 - 513 2014 10 15 15 22 11 12 5 15 20 42 58 76 72 63 46 15 11 6 - 513 2015 10 15 14 22 11 12 5 15 19 39 56 77 74 65 47 15 10 6 - 514 2016 10 16 14 21 10 12 5 15 18 39 53 76 78 66 49 15 10 7 - 514 2017 10 16 14 21 10 12 6 15 18 38 50 76 80 66 51 16 10 7 - 514 2018 10 16 14 20 10 12 6 15 17 38 47 75 81 67 53 16 10 7 - 514 2019 10 16 14 20 9 11 6 16 17 37 44 73 81 69 56 16 11 7 - 514 2020 10 15 14 20 9 11 6 16 18 36 42 72 82 71 57 17 11 7 - 513 2021 10 15 15 20 9 11 6 16 18 35 41 68 82 74 58 17 11 7 - 512 2022 10 15 15 20 9 10 6 17 18 34 41 64 81 77 59 18 12 7 - 510 2023 10 16 15 20 8 10 6 17 18 33 40 60 81 78 60 19 12 7 - 508 2024 9 16 14 20 8 10 6 18 18 33 39 57 79 78 62 20 12 7 - 506 2025 9 16 14 20 8 9 5 18 19 34 38 54 77 79 64 21 12 7 - 504 2026 9 16 14 20 8 9 5 18 19 34 37 53 73 79 67 21 13 7 - 503

Spanish 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 (Census) 25 20 40 55 35 25 30 25 35 65 70 70 55 45 35 25 20 10 - 695 2011 (forecast) 25 20 41 55 41 28 30 26 36 66 71 73 54 45 34 25 21 11 - 702 2012 25 20 40 53 41 28 30 26 36 61 70 75 54 47 35 24 22 11 - 698 2013 25 21 39 50 41 29 30 25 35 58 69 76 55 49 36 24 22 12 - 694 2014 25 20 39 49 39 30 30 25 34 54 67 76 57 51 36 25 21 12 - 692 2015 24 21 39 47 38 30 31 25 33 51 65 77 58 53 37 25 21 13 - 689 2016 24 21 38 47 36 30 32 25 32 50 62 76 61 54 38 25 21 13 - 686 2017 24 21 38 45 35 30 33 25 31 50 58 76 63 54 40 26 21 14 - 683 2018 24 21 38 45 33 30 34 26 30 49 54 75 64 55 41 27 21 14 - 681 2019 24 21 38 44 32 29 35 26 31 48 51 73 64 57 43 27 21 14 - 679 2020 24 21 38 44 31 28 35 27 31 47 48 72 64 58 45 28 22 14 - 676 2021 24 21 39 43 31 26 35 27 31 45 48 68 64 61 45 29 22 14 - 673 2022 24 21 39 43 30 25 35 28 31 44 47 64 64 63 46 31 23 14 - 671 2023 24 21 39 44 30 25 35 29 31 43 47 60 63 64 46 32 24 14 - 669 2024 24 21 39 44 29 24 34 29 32 43 46 57 62 64 48 33 24 14 - 666 2025 23 21 38 44 29 23 33 30 33 44 44 54 61 65 50 35 25 14 - 664 2026 23 21 38 44 29 23 32 30 33 44 43 53 58 65 52 35 26 15 - 662

Mississagi River 8 IRI 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 (Census) 25 30 30 35 30 20 30 25 35 40 40 30 15 5 5 5 5 - - 390 2011 (forecast) 25 31 31 35 35 22 30 26 36 40 40 31 15 5 5 5 5 - - 417 2012 25 31 30 33 35 23 30 26 36 38 40 32 15 5 5 5 5 - - 413 2013 25 31 29 32 35 23 30 25 35 35 39 33 15 5 5 5 5 - - 408 2014 25 31 29 31 34 24 30 25 34 33 38 33 15 6 5 5 5 - - 404 2015 24 31 29 30 32 24 31 25 33 32 37 33 16 6 5 5 5 - - 399 2016 24 31 29 30 31 24 32 25 32 31 35 33 17 6 5 5 5 - - 396 2017 24 31 29 29 30 24 33 25 31 31 33 33 17 6 6 5 5 - - 392 2018 24 31 29 28 29 24 34 26 30 30 31 32 17 6 6 5 5 - - 388 2019 24 31 29 28 28 23 35 26 31 30 29 31 17 6 6 5 5 - - 385 2020 24 31 29 28 27 22 35 27 31 29 28 31 18 6 6 6 5 - - 382 2021 24 31 29 28 26 21 35 27 31 28 27 29 18 7 6 6 6 - - 379 2022 24 31 29 28 26 20 35 28 31 27 27 27 17 7 7 6 6 - - 376 2023 24 31 29 28 25 20 35 29 31 27 27 26 17 7 7 6 6 - - 374 2024 24 31 29 28 25 19 34 29 32 27 26 24 17 7 7 7 6 - - 371 2025 23 31 29 28 25 19 33 30 33 27 25 23 17 7 7 7 6 - - 369 2026 23 31 29 28 25 18 32 30 33 27 24 23 16 7 7 7 6 - - 367

43 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE A-4: SECONDARY ZONE POPULATION FORECAST continued…

Serpent River 7 IRI 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 (Census) 40 20 30 35 25 20 25 20 10 30 30 25 15 10 15 10 5 - 5 370 2011 (forecast) 40 20 31 35 29 22 25 21 10 30 30 26 15 10 15 10 5 - 5 380 2012 40 20 30 33 30 23 25 21 10 28 30 27 15 11 15 10 5 - 6 378 2013 40 21 29 32 29 23 25 20 10 27 30 27 15 11 15 10 5 - 7 375 2014 39 20 29 31 28 24 25 20 10 25 29 27 15 11 15 10 5 - 8 373 2015 39 21 29 30 27 24 26 20 9 24 28 27 16 12 16 10 5 - 8 372 2016 39 21 29 30 26 24 27 20 9 23 26 27 17 12 16 10 5 - 9 370 2017 39 21 29 29 25 24 28 20 9 23 25 27 17 12 17 11 5 - 9 369 2018 39 21 29 28 24 24 28 21 9 23 23 27 17 12 18 11 5 - 10 368 2019 39 21 29 28 23 23 29 21 9 22 22 26 17 13 19 11 5 - 10 366 2020 39 21 29 28 22 22 29 21 9 21 21 26 18 13 19 11 5 - 11 365 2021 39 21 29 28 22 21 29 22 9 21 20 24 18 14 19 12 6 - 12 364 2022 38 21 29 28 21 20 29 22 9 20 20 23 17 14 20 12 6 - 12 363 2023 38 21 29 28 21 20 29 23 9 20 20 21 17 14 20 13 6 - 12 361 2024 38 21 29 28 21 19 28 23 9 20 20 20 17 14 21 13 6 - 13 359 2025 37 21 29 28 21 19 27 24 9 20 19 19 17 14 21 14 6 - 13 358 2026 37 21 29 28 21 18 26 24 10 20 18 19 16 14 22 14 6 - 13 356

Secondary Trade Area 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Total 2011 (Census) 270 245 280 345 300 270 240 245 285 460 560 540 445 365 260 195 125 60 20 5,510 2011 (forecast) 269 249 287 345 353 299 240 257 292 464 564 564 438 368 253 191 132 67 21 5,653 2012 269 249 278 330 355 306 237 251 290 433 559 579 439 384 260 188 135 68 25 5,634 2013 267 251 274 316 348 313 242 245 285 407 552 587 445 399 267 188 135 70 28 5,618 2014 265 251 272 308 336 321 244 245 279 384 538 588 459 417 268 191 133 74 30 5,603 2015 263 253 270 297 323 326 251 248 268 362 523 593 472 429 274 194 131 77 33 5,586 2016 261 256 267 292 310 324 258 249 259 356 494 590 493 435 281 199 131 80 35 5,570 2017 262 257 266 283 297 325 265 247 254 354 462 586 507 437 295 205 129 83 37 5,551 2018 263 255 268 279 286 319 271 252 248 348 434 580 514 444 308 212 129 84 39 5,532 2019 262 254 267 278 278 309 278 254 249 341 410 567 516 459 322 214 132 83 42 5,514 2020 262 253 268 276 269 297 281 261 251 329 388 552 521 472 332 219 135 82 44 5,494 2021 261 251 272 273 265 286 281 268 252 318 381 522 520 494 337 226 139 82 46 5,474 2022 259 253 273 272 257 275 281 274 251 312 379 491 517 508 340 238 144 81 48 5,454 2023 257 254 271 273 254 265 278 280 256 305 373 463 514 516 345 249 149 82 50 5,433 2024 254 254 270 273 252 258 270 287 259 306 365 437 503 519 357 261 152 85 50 5,413 2025 251 254 269 275 251 250 262 290 266 309 354 414 491 525 368 270 156 87 51 5,393 2026 247 253 268 278 248 245 253 291 273 311 343 407 467 525 385 275 161 90 52 5,372 SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc., based on the MOF Population Projections - Reference Scenario 2011 - 2036.

44 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX B – RETAIL INVENTORY

Figure B-1 lists all of the retail/service commercial establishments in the Primary Zone and provides the location, store name, NAICS code, NAICS category and the gross leasable area for each retail unit. The information in Figure B-1 is based on an inventory conducted by urbanMetrics in August 2012.

45 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE B-1: PRIMARY TRADE AREA INVENTORY

Gross Leasable Area Rounded Gross Location Store Name NAICS NAICS Code (SQFT) Leasable Area (SQFT) Elliot Lake Maslack Auto Parts Store 20 Automotive Supply & Tire 8,035 8,000 Elliot Lake NAPA Auto Parts 20 Automotive Supply & Tire 2,353 2,400 Elliot Lake OK Tire 20 Automotive Supply & Tire 3,500 3,500 Subtotal - Automotive Supply & Tire 13,888 13,900 Elliot Lake Seidel's 30 Furniture Stores 17,112 17,100 Elliot Lake Lobek Carpet 40 Home Furnishings Stores 2,500 2,500 Elliot Lake Computer FX 50 Computer and Software Stores 930 900 Elliot Lake The Source-Circuit City 60 Home Electronics and Appliance Stores 1,302 1,300 Elliot Lake Appliance Broker 60 Home Electronics and Appliance Stores 3,100 3,100 Subtotal - Home Furnishings & Electronics 24,944 24,900 Elliot Lake Soo Mills 70 Home Centres and Hardware Stores 20,000 20,000 Elliot Lake Rona Building Centre 70 Home Centres and Hardware Stores 7,699 7,700 Elliot Lake Para Paints 80 Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores 1,116 1,100 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery 80 Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores 1,116 1,100 Subtotal - Building & Outdoor Home Supplies 29,931 29,900 Elliot Lake No Frills 90 Supermarkets 34,010 34,000 Elliot Lake Foodland (former) 90 Supermarkets 26,806 26,800 Subtotal - Supermarkets 34,010 34,000 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Meats and Deli 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 1,562 1,600 Elliot Lake M&M Meat Shop 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 837 800 Elliot Lake Hillside Shop & Save 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 2,511 2,500 Elliot Lake Breen Coffee Roasters 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 1,500 1,500 Elliot Lake Esso On the Run 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 2,232 2,200 Subtotal - Convenience & Specialty Food 8,642 8,600 Elliot Lake Shoppers Drug Mart 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 18,860 18,900 Elliot Lake Rexall 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 9,440 9,400 Elliot Lake Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 3,162 3,200 Elliot Lake Natural Food and Therapies 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Lyrettes Opticians 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 750 800 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Pharma Choice 120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 2,678 2,700 Subtotal - Pharmacies & Personal Care 36,230 36,300 Elliot Lake Kevin's Custom Clothiers 140 Clothing Stores 1,535 1,500 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Jewlers 150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores 791 800 Elliot Lake Tin Can Alley Family Footwear 150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores 1,562 1,600 Elliot Lake Sarich's Source For Sports 150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores 1,925 1,900 Subtotal - Shoe, Clothing & Accessories 5,813 5,800 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Trading Post 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 5,100 5,100 Elliot Lake Canadian Tire 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 22,000 22,000 Elliot Lake Sears - Appliance Lawn Electronings 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 8,221 8,200 Elliot Lake The Buck Dtops Here Dollar Store and More 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 446 400 Subtotal - Other General Merchandise 35,768 35,700 Elliot Lake Pet Value 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,050 1,100 Elliot Lake Pet Headquarters 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,302 1,300 Elliot Lake Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 781 800 Elliot Lake Debyes Pets 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,590 1,600 Elliot Lake Office Supplies 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 446 400 Elliot Lake Quality Flower and Gifts 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 446 400 Elliot Lake Sight and Sound Video Store 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 1,841 1,800 Elliot Lake The Store (Buy Sell Trade) 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 651 700 Elliot Lake St Vincent De Paul 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 11,606 11,600 Elliot Lake Salvation Army 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 5,022 5,000 Elliot Lake You Save Furniture 2nd Hand 190 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 2,500 2,500 Elliot Lake Cellar Guitars 160 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music and Book Stores 530 500 Subtotal - Miscellaneous 27,767 27,700 Elliot Lake Scotiabank 210 Financial Services 4,092 4,100 Elliot Lake CIBC 210 Financial Services 7,366 7,400 Elliot Lake BMO 210 Financial Services 4,743 4,700 Elliot Lake TD bank 210 Financial Services 5,654 5,700 Elliot Lake RBC 210 Financial Services 3,274 3,300 Elliot Lake Northern Credit Union 210 Financial Services 2,678 2,700 Subtotal - Financial Services 27,807 27,900

46 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

Gross Leasable Area Rounded Gross Location Store Name NAICS NAICS Code (SQFT) Leasable Area (SQFT) Elliot Lake Algoma Insurance 220 Insurance and Real Estate 651 700 Elliot Lake Royal Lepage - Northern Advantage 220 Insurance and Real Estate 2,558 2,600 Elliot Lake Ed Jones Investments 220 Insurance and Real Estate 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Remax Nu-/trend 220 Insurance and Real Estate 837 800 Subtotal - Insurance & Real Estate 5,385 5,400 Elliot Lake Manitoba Road Animal Hospital 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,432 1,400 Elliot Lake H&R Block 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake KPMG, Brown Farbis, Dundee Wealth Management 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 2,623 2,600 Elliot Lake Second Floor Offices Torrance Surveying 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 3,348 3,300 Elliot Lake Aube Law 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,116 1,100 Elliot Lake Fountaine and Associates Personal Bankruptcy 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,116 1,100 Elliot Lake Broker Link 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,060 1,100 Elliot Lake 3D Accounting 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 3,255 3,300 Elliot Lake Glenn R. Chartered Accountant 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Feifel, Broadbent, Gaulazzi Law Firm 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Beth Maynard Trustt 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,042 1,000 Elliot Lake Kearns Law Office 230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,042 1,000 Subtotal - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 20,386 20,200 Elliot Lake Union Gas Utility Office 240 Selected Office Administrative Services 1,700 1,700 Elliot Lake The Standard Newspaper 240 Selected Office Administrative Services 6,026 6,000 Elliot Lake College Boreal Job Connect Centre 240 Selected Office Administrative Services 2,678 2,700 Elliot Lake Marlin Travel 241 Travel Agencies 670 700 Subtotal - Selected Office Administrative Services 11,074 11,100 Elliot Lake Dr. R.A. Ferguson Optomotrist 250 Health Care Services 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Denture Clinic - Alain Desault 250 Health Care Services 651 700 Elliot Lake Medical Building Elnos (Various Tenants) 250 Health Care Services 30,000 30,000 Blind River Dr. F.C. Hamill Centre 250 Health Care Services 1,000 1,000 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Family Dentistry (2nd Floor) 250 Health Care Services 1,562 1,600 Elliot Lake Elliot Lake Denture Clinic 250 Health Care Services 698 700 Subtotal - Health Care Services 35,250 35,300 Elliot Lake Northern Lights Bingo Bowling 260 Entertainment 9,765 9,800 Elliot Lake Personal Training 262 Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres 3,171 3,200 Elliot Lake Yves' Place Fitness 262 Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres 1,590 1,600 Elliot Lake Hook Up Mauy Thai Boxing Studio (2nd floor) 262 Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres 530 500 Elliot Lake Reel 2 Reel Theatre 264 Motion Picture and Video Exhibition 7,366 7,400 Subtotal - Cultural, Entertainment, Recreational Services 22,422 22,500 Elliot Lake KFC 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,660 2,700 Elliot Lake Coachman Restaurant 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 4,278 4,300 Elliot Lake Fireside Classic Grill 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 5,100 5,100 Elliot Lake Tim Hortons 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,976 3,000 Elliot Lake McDonalds 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 3,255 3,300 Elliot Lake New Orleans Pizza, Wings and More 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,302 1,300 Elliot Lake Michelles Bakery and Cafe (opening soon) 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 651 700 Elliot Lake Viking Fish and Chips 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,897 1,900 Elliot Lake Bankside Cafe 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,139 2,100 Elliot Lake C&Ts Restaurant 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,604 2,600 Elliot Lake Maple Restaurant Chinese Canadian 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,739 1,700 Elliot Lake Wil's Cove Restaurant 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake Jane's Tea Garden 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,739 1,700 Elliot Lake DQ 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Java Jolt Cafe 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,339 1,300 Elliot Lake Topper Pizza 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 837 800 Elliot Lake Regie's On The Hill 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake Subway 270 Food Services and Drinking Places 1,841 1,800 Subtotal - Food Services and Drinking Places 39,045 39,000 Elliot Lake Top Tech Automotive Services 281 Automotive Repair & Maintenance 2,700 2,700 Subtotal - Household Goods Repair & Maintenance 2,700 2,700 Elliot Lake The Chop Shop Family Hair Care 290 Personal Care Services 837 800 Elliot Lake Shear Creations 290 Personal Care Services 1,360 1,400 Elliot Lake Snips Dog Grooming 290 Personal Care Services 716 700 Elliot Lake The Vault Tattoo Studio 290 Personal Care Services 530 500 Elliot Lake First Choice Haircutters 290 Personal Care Services 977 1,000 Elliot Lake The Hair Gallery Salon 290 Personal Care Services 837 800 Elliot Lake Silent Physics Day Spa 290 Personal Care Services 837 800 Elliot Lake Barber Shop 290 Personal Care Services 446 400 Elliot Lake Attitudes Hair and Nails 290 Personal Care Services 670 700 Elliot Lake Salon for Men 290 Personal Care Services 1,395 1,400 Elliot Lake Muriel's Headquarter's Salon 290 Personal Care Services 1,674 1,700 Elliot Lake Envy Hair Studio and Spa 290 Personal Care Services 1,395 1,400 Subtotal - Personal Care Services 11,674 11,600 TOTAL 392,735 392,500 Total Retail Space 216,992 216,800 Total Service Space 175,743 175,700

47 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX C – NAICS CODES

FIGURE C-1: NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (NAICS)

RETAIL/SERVICE STORE CLASSIFICATION (BASED ON NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION (NAICS)

Group NAICS Description FOOD STORE RETAIL (FSR) 90 Supermarkets 44511 Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores 100 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 44512 Convenience Stores 44521 Meat Markets 44522 Fish and Seafood Markets 44523 Fruit and Vegetable Markets 44529 Other Specialty Food Stores, including Baked Goods Stores, & Confectionary & Nut

BEVERAGE STORES 110 Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores 44531 Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores

NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL (NFSR)

Automo 20 Used and Recreational Motor Vehicle and Parks Dealers (Tires, Batteries, Automotive Accessories component) 44131 Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores 44132 Tire Dealers Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores

30 Furniture Stores 44211 Furniture Stores 40 Home Furnishings Stores 44221 Floor Covering Stores (excludes retailers or only ceramic or only hardwood flooring which are in Building Supply) 44229 Other Home Furnishings Stores (e.g. window treatments, fireplace/accessories, kitchen and tableware, bedding and linens, brooms and brushes, lamps and shades, and prints and picture frames).

50 Computer and Software Stores 44312 Computer and Software Stores (includes retailing new computers, computer peripherals, pre-packaged software, game

60 Home Electronics and Appliance Stores 44311 Appliance, Television and other Electronics Stores 44313 Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores 70 Home Centres and Hardware Stores 44411 Home Centres 44413 Hardware Stores (includes tool stores) 80 Specialized Building Materials and Garden Stores 44412 Paint and Wallpaper Stores 44419 Other Building Material Dealers (excluding manufacturing and construction firms) (includes doors, windows, kitchen cabinets, electrical, glass, plumbing, ceramic floor, roofing materials, fencing) 44421 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores (lawn mowers, tractors, hedge trimmers, snow blowers) 44422 Nursery Stores and Garden Centres

Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores

120 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 44611 Pharmacies and Drug Stores 44612 Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores 44613 Optical Goods Stores 44619 Other Health and Personal Care Stores (includes stores retailing health and personal care items, such as vitamin Clothing and Accessories Stores

140 Clothing Stores 44811 Men's Clothing Stores 44812 Women's Clothing Stores 44813 Children's and Infant's Clothing Stores 44814 Family Clothing Stores 44819 Other Clothing Stores

48 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

150 Shoe, Clothing Accessories and Jewellery Stores 44815 Clothing Accessories Stores 44821 Shoe Stores (includes athletic shoe retailers) 44831 Jewellery Stores 44832 Luggage and Leather Goods Stores

General Merchandise Stores

170 Department Stores 45211 Department Stores 175 45211 Department Stores with a Large food component (i.e. Walmart Supercentres) 180 Other General Merchandise Stores 45291 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores 45299 All Other General Merchandise Stores: Home & Auto (i.e. Canadian Tire) Other General Merchandise Stores (e.g. general stores, variety stores, "dollar" stores) Miscellaneous Retailers

160 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Music and Book Stores 45111 Sporting Goods Stores (excludes athletic shoe retailers) 45112 Hobby, Toy and Game Stores (excludes computer games and software) 45113 Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores 45114 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores 45121 Book Stores and News Dealers 45122 Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores

190 Miscellaneous Store 45311 Florists 45321 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores 45322 Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores 45331 Used Merchandise Stores 45391 Pet and Pet Supplies Stores 45392 Art Dealers (excludes art galleries) 45399 All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers (e.g. tobacco supplies, artist supplies, collectors items, beer & wine making,

SERVICES 200 Consumer Goods Rental 53221 Consumer Electronics and Appliance (Appliance rental and leasing, rental of consumer audio-visual equipment 53222 Formal Wear and Costume Rental 53223 Video Tape and Disc Rental 53229 Other Rental (sporting goods, garden equipment, home health, fitness etc.) 53231 General Rental Centres (including contractors' and builders' tools and equipment, home repair tools, lawn and garden

210 Finance 52211 Banks 52213 Credit Unions 215 52239 Other Financial (including cheque cashing, mortgage brokers, other financial services (e.g. Edward Jones)) 220 Insurance and Real Estate 52421 Insurance Agencies and Brokerages 53121 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers 53132 Office of Real Estate Appraisers

49 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

230 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 54111 Offices of Lawyers 54119 Other Legal Services (e.g.. Paralegal, Title search, immigration consultation, notaries) 54121 Offices of Accountants, Tax Preparation Services, Bookings, Payroll 54131 Architectural Services 54132 Landscape Architecture (includes urban planners, industrial development planning, landscape architects) 54134 Drafting Services 54137 Survey and Mapping Services 54138 Testing Labs (excluding medical, auto, veterinary) 54141 Interior Design Services 54143 Graphic Design Services (includes art studios) 54149 Other Specialized Design Services (e.g. clothing, jewellery, fashion) 54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services (e.g. computer consulting and programming) 54161 Management Consulting Services 54162 Environmental Consulting Services 54169 Other Scientific and Technical Consulting (e.g. economic, hydrology, safety ) 54171 Research & Development in the Physical, Engineering and Life Sciences (includes medical research labs) 54172 Research & Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities (e.g.. demographic, education, psychology research) 54181 Advertising Agencies 54182 Public Relations Services (e.g. lobbyists, political consultants) 54191 Marketing Research & Public opinion polling 54192 Photographic Services (e.g. passport photography, photo studios portrait photography studies) 54193 Translation and Interpretation Services 54194 Veterinary Services (excludes pet care (81291)) 54199 All Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (includes consumer credit counselling) 240 Selected Office Administrative Services 56131 Employment Services (includes placements, executive search, casting agencies etc.) 56141 Document Preparation Services (proofreading, word processing, desktop publishing etc.) 56142 Telephone Call Centres 56143 Business Service Centres (e.g.. printing, copying, mail centres) (excludes commercial printing) 56144 Collection Agencies 56145 Credit Bureaus 241 56151 Travel Agencies 56159 Other Travel Arrangement & Reservation Services (e.g.. ticket sales agency, tourist info, bus ticket offices, etc.) Security Systems (includes security system sales, installation and monitoring; locksmiths (excluding key duplication - 81149)) 56162

245 Educational Services 61161 Fine Arts Schools (e.g. dance, drama, music, art, handicrafts) 61162 Athletic Instruction (e.g. aerobic dance, gymnastics, judo, karate, martial arts, scuba, swimming) (excludes athletic 61163 Language Schools 61169 All Other Schools and Instruction (e.g. driving instruction, public speaking, Kumon, Oxford)

250 Health Care

63111 Offices of Physicians 62121 Offices of Dentists 62131 Offices of Chiropractors 62132 Offices of Optometrists (excludes eyeglass stores - 44613) 62133 Offices of Mental Health Practitioners (psychologists, psychiatric social workers) 62134 Offices of Physical, Occupational, Speech Therapists and Audiologists 62135 Offices of Other Health Practitioners (e.g.. acupuncturists, dental hygienists, dieticians, naturopath, podiatrists) 62141 Family Planning Centres 62142 Outpatient Mental Health and Substance Abuse Centres 62149 Other Outpatient Care Centres (e.g. public health clinics, hearing testing, dialysis) 62151 Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories (e.g. medical, x-ray, dental lab (excluding making of dentures, ortho appliances, teeth))

50 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

255 Social Services 62411 Child and Youth Social Services (e.g. Children's aid, youth centres, adoption) 62149 Other Individual and Family Services (e.g.. AA, marriage counselling, outreach) 62441 Child Day Care 260 Cultural, Entertainment and Recreation 261 71312 Amusement Arcades (e.g. indoor play areas, pinball arcades, video game arcades) Fitness & Recreational Sports Centres (includes athletic clubs, spas (w/o accommodation), aerobic dance centres, health 262 71394 clubs) 263 71395 Bowling Centres 264 71399 All other Amusement and Recreation Industries (includes billiards parlours) 265 51213 Motion Picture and Video Exhibition (includes cinemas)

270 Food Services and Drinking Places 271 72211 Full-Service Restaurants 272 72221 Limited-Service Eating Places 273 72232 Caterers (includes banquet halls) 274 72241 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) -( includes night clubs, bars (including those with gaming), pubs, taverns

280 Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance 81111 Automotive Mechanical & Electrical Repair & Maintenance (includes engine repair, exhausts, transmission, electrical 281 system repair) 281 81112 Automotive Body, Paint, Interior and Glass Repair (includes collision repair, auto upholstery, paint & body shops) 81119 Other Automotive Repair & Maintenance (includes auto detail, washing, diagnostic centres, lube, rust proofing, 281 undercoating, emissions testing) 81121 Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance (includes ink jet cartridges (cleaning and refilling), TV repair) 282 81141 Home and Garden Equipment and Appliance Repair & Maintenance (e.g. small engine repair) 81142 Reupholstery and Furniture Repair 81143 Footwear and Leather Goods Repair (e.g. shoe repair) 81149 Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance (includes key cutting, china firing/decorating, jewellery 282 repair, sharpening of knives, skate sharpening, watch repair etc.)

290 Personal Care Services 81211 Hair care and Esthetic Services (includes barber, beauty, hair salons) 81219 Other Personal Care services (includes day spa, diet centres, hair removal, massage parlours, tanning salons, tattoo parlours, weight reduction centres) 81231 Coin-operated Laundries and dry cleaners (self service) 81232 Dry Cleaning and Laundry services (except coin operated) 81233 Linen and Uniform Supply (includes work clothing supply services - industrial) 81291 Pet Care (except veterinary) 81292 Photofinishing Services 81299 All other Personal Services (e.g. fortune tellers, dating services, psychic services, shoeshine)

295 Civic and Social Organizations 81341 Civic and Social Organizations (includes clubs) 81391 Business Associations (includes board of trade, real estate boards etc.) Transportation 296 49111 Postal Service (post office)

300 VACANT 9999 VACANT RETAIL/SERVICE SPACE urbanMetrics inc.

51 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX D – RETAIL ANALYSIS BACKGROUND

Figures D-1 to D-4 summarize the various inputs used in our retail market demand and impact analysis. Figure D-1 illustrates the Statistics Canada Retail Trade data used to determine per capita expenditures according to the store category. Figure D-2 illustrates the regression equations, based on the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending, which have been used to determine per capita NFSR and FSR expenditures. Figures D-3 and D-4 indicate the historic real growth in FSR and NFSR expenditures since 2004.

52 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE D-1: STATISTICS CANADA RETAIL TRADE DATA

$88 $87 $771 $951 $788 $822 $136 $145 $596 $309 $187 $118 $399 $730 $548 $419 $258 $247 $111 $161 $2,737 $2,043 $1,368 $2,031 $1,907 $2,447 $1,610 Per Capita $2,188 $5,555 $3,756 $366.0 $1,820.6 $1,943.2 $7,971.1 $4,133.5 $2,498.5 $1,583.6 $5,338.3 $9,759.9 $7,330.2 $1,170.1 $1,166.4 $5,605.5 $3,453.8 $3,663.6 $1,484.0 $2,151.7 $36,579.5 $27,306.1 $18,289.0 $10,307.6 $27,145.0 $25,485.5 $12,705.7 $10,532.7 $32,711.1 $21,522.0 $10,989.5 $29,249.3 $74,619.7 $74,253.7 160,615.7 TOTAL** 13,366,294 13,366,294 ANNUALIZED 12 2011 78.4 158.5 138.6 581.8 334.0 247.7 797.7 153.6 244.0 902.4 422.9 657.4 139.0 251.8 609.5 1,538.4 1,147.6 1,504.2 1,191.0 2,398.3 2,022.8 2,532.1 1,493.5 2,695.2 1,220.0 3,678.5 2,378.5 16,093.2

11 2011 76.5 211.3 187.4 501.6 295.7 205.9 476.3 145.8 170.7 569.9 982.3 772.3 975.0 326.1 825.5 105.1 104.9 406.8 1,015.5 2,759.6 2,284.3 2,196.9 1,518.1 1,990.5 1,096.9 2,937.4 2,051.1 13,821.1

10 2011 82.2 211.4 159.0 494.7 290.0 204.6 422.3 152.1 164.4 580.1 866.8 681.2 922.9 858.3 315.4 812.1 103.4 328.2 109.2 2,619.5 2,139.8 2,225.6 1,515.5 1,781.1 1,044.0 2,970.1 2,073.5 13,169.7

9 2011 87.1 228.2 130.3 485.0 309.8 175.2 460.6 151.9 156.4 635.6 892.4 692.7 920.7 854.2 342.1 872.3 112.6 396.7 121.1 2,781.9 2,302.2 2,300.8 1,515.4 1,774.9 1,019.6 3,092.8 2,148.9 13,633.7

8 2011 86.9 228.0 500.9 308.7 192.3 458.6 161.9 160.6 647.3 823.3 632.8 875.6 860.0 301.4 126.5 937.8 103.6 331.6 173.9 2,993.5 2,465.1 2,248.4 1,606.1 1,735.6 1,065.0 3,056.2 2,086.5 13,810.0

7 2011 98.0 86.9 215.4 459.1 293.7 165.4 413.0 164.0 162.5 776.2 801.9 617.0 896.1 924.8 273.9 123.8 950.0 294.9 181.0 2,818.9 2,298.7 2,402.2 1,632.6 1,820.9 1,031.6 3,340.9 2,238.2 13,837.7

6 2011 86.1 246.4 458.8 286.9 171.8 405.3 161.4 166.2 620.7 870.7 679.4 928.4 946.8 295.9 138.2 105.2 311.8 199.7 1,027.6 3,376.8 2,792.5 2,324.1 1,600.5 1,875.1 1,065.5 3,110.9 2,162.7 14,398.9

5 2011 87.6 222.6 448.1 278.7 169.5 389.2 159.1 155.4 581.9 849.7 660.4 899.2 961.7 297.7 145.1 101.7 289.1 218.3 1,026.0 3,143.0 2,557.0 2,245.1 1,667.3 1,860.9 1,083.3 2,982.4 2,086.0 14,036.7

4 2011 90.5 76.0 206.7 443.3 273.2 170.1 375.8 765.9 152.0 164.1 574.9 786.9 620.4 865.7 828.5 272.7 144.9 286.9 162.4 2,992.0 2,477.9 2,349.8 1,549.6 1,694.2 1,052.0 3,088.9 2,197.8 13,308.2

3 2011 77.8 70.0 92.4 223.0 429.0 267.6 161.4 418.9 683.9 142.4 138.7 519.8 705.1 557.4 763.1 784.1 282.1 122.2 300.9 2,916.1 2,478.5 2,210.5 1,498.0 1,547.2 1,063.6 2,869.1 2,068.1 12,713.9

2 2011 77.5 59.9 83.1 71.1 181.9 378.4 248.4 130.0 347.6 526.2 129.6 128.3 462.2 582.4 439.5 667.4 633.7 259.7 963.6 258.9 2,008.7 1,678.2 2,040.0 1,320.2 1,301.1 2,630.5 1,910.4 10,577.3

1 - 10% 2011 90.1 73.3 63.8 165.1 424.9 267.1 157.8 373.0 675.2 146.8 131.9 459.2 607.5 470.4 730.7 714.6 273.7 318.2 1,969.5 1,648.0 2,230.6 1,372.2 1,445.3 2,849.6 1,000.6 2,083.8 11,309.7

(partial years calculated by adding 4451 and 4452) 2012) 27 Sept (released 2 91-002-X, 26, no. vol. no. Catalogue Catalogue no. 91-002-X, vol. 26, no. 2 (released Sept 27 2012) 27 Sept (released 2 91-002-X, 26, no. vol. no. Catalogue [ 44511 ] stores

) convenience except ONTARIO -RETAIL TRADE (PUBLICATION 63-005) - PER CAPITA TOTAL RETAIL TRADE RETAIL TOTAL PER CAPITA FSR CAPITA PER SALES POPULATION (July 1st Estimate) 1st (July POPULATION MONTH YEAR dealers[441] parts and vehicle Motor New car dealers[44111] Used car dealers[44112] stores[4413] and tire accessories parts, Automotive [442] stores furnishings home and Furniture Furniture stores [4421] Home furnishings stores [4422] [443] stores and appliance Electronics [444] dealers supplies and equipment garden and material Building Grocery stores [4451] (includes 44512) 44511 & ( grocery other and Supermarkets Convenience stores [44512] Specialty food stores [4452] [4453] stores liquor and wine Beer, Gasoline Stations [447] [448] stores accessories and clothing Clothing Clothing stores [4481] Shoe stores [4482] [4483] stores goods and leather luggage Jewellery, [452] stores merchandise General Department stores [4521] [4529] stores merchandise general Other [453] retailers store Miscellaneous 4452] ONTARIO 4451, [NAICS - FSR SALES, ESTIMATED TOTAL ACCESSORIES 453 @ TIRES/BATTERIES/AUTO 452, AUTOMOTIVE 90%] 451, INCLUDES 448, - 446, 444, 443, 442, ONTARIO 4413, [NAICS - NFSRTOTAL SALES, STORE TOTALADJUSTED NFSR ONTARIO SALES, Estimate) 1st (July POPULATION PER CAPITA NFSR STORE SALES TIRES/BATTERIES/AUTO ACCESSORIES @90%)@ CAPITA $118 PER AUTOMOTIVE EXCLUDES - (including GAFO 4413,442,443,448,451,452,453 NAICS CAPITA PER ($Millions) dealers[4412] Other motor vehicle Food and beverage stores [445] [446] stores care personal and Health [451] stores music and book hobby, goods, Sporting @ *** Portion NFSR Non- - Retailers Store Miscellaneous Less SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. NA - Department store sales and other general merchandise were not provided by Statistics Canada until 2011, therefore, for partial year data, annual estimates based on past six years cannot be calculated. * Per Capita adjusted for estimated Non-NFSR portion. ** For part year data, annualized totals calculated by applying average indices of quarters for the past six years as a % of total, to current year partial sales. *** urbanMetrics estimate. Excluded stores include: Mobile Home Dealers and Tomb Stone Dealers.

53 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE D-2: INCOME/EXPENDITURE REGRESSION EQUATIONS

(x) (y1) (y2) Average Per Capita Income of Income (n) Quintile Income FSR NFSR

1 $11,020 35.2 97.0 72.2 2 $16,939 54.1 95.8 79.5 3 $24,067 76.9 92.1 95.1 4 $30,527 97.5 99.3 101.3 5 $56,256 179.7 110.0 129.7 All Classes $31,305 100.0 100.0 100.0

REGRESSION EQUATIONS: FSR y1 = 0.10 (x) + 90 NFSR y2 = 0.40 (x) + 60 Restaurant y3 = 0.57 (x) + 43 Health y4= 0.06 (x) + 94

where x = income index (independent variable) and y = expenditure index for selected category (dependent variable)

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Survey of Household Spending in 2010, Ontario (April 2012 62F0032X)

54 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE D-3: HISTORIC REAL GROWTH IN FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES Per Capita FSR Consumer Price Per Capita FSR Expenditures Index (2002 Base Expenditures Annual Real Year (Current $) (1 Year) (2 (Constant $) Growth

2004 $1,885 103.0 $1,830 2005 $1,937 106.1 $1,824 -0.3% 2006 $1,943 108.2 $1,795 -1.6% 2007 $1,994 110.6 $1,804 0.5% 2008 $2,113 115.4 $1,831 1.5% 2009 $2,193 121.4 $1,806 -1.3% 2010 $2,182 123.1 $1,772 -1.9% 2011 $2,188 129.0 $1,696 -4.3% 2012 $2,222 132.1 $1,682 -0.9%

Average Annual Real Growth, 2004 to 2012 -1.0%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, Publication 63-005 (NAICS). The figure for 2012 is an estimate based on Full Year data, indexed to the full year using historic data for the preceding six years for partial year data.

2) Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food Purchased from Stores.

FIGURE D-4: HISTORIC REAL GROWTH IN NON-FOOD STORE RETAIL EXPENDITURES Per Capita NFSR Consumer Price Per Capita NFSR Expenditures Index (2002 Base Expenditures Annual Real Year (Current $) (1 Year) (2 (Constant $) Growth

2004 $4,757 104.1 $4,569 2005 $4,874 105.3 $4,627 1.3% 2006 $5,112 106.6 $4,795 3.6% 2007 $5,289 108.5 $4,872 1.6% 2008 $5,376 109.8 $4,894 0.4% 2009 $5,306 111.1 $4,776 -2.4% 2010 $5,499 113.4 $4,850 1.6% 2011 $5,555 115.6 $4,805 -0.9% 2012 $5,597 116.7 $4,797 -0.2%

Average Annual Real Growth, 2004 to 2012 0.6%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, Publication 63-005 (NAICS). Includes expenditures at Automotive Parts, Accessories and Tire stores. The figure for 2012 is an estimate based on Full Year data, indexed to the full year using historic data for the preceding six years. 2) Statistics Canada, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Items Excluding Food and Energy.

55 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX E – CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS

An online consumer expenditure survey of approximately 320 residents was conducted in the Trade Area in October 2012. Survey respondents were asked to identify their recent expenditures at all types of FSR and NFSR stores in order to ascertain the current shopping patterns of the inhabitants living in each zone of the Trade Area. The survey also included several general questions used to identify the demographic characteristics of each respondent.

The survey program was designed by urbanMetrics inc., while the survey software and online hosting were provided by Fluid Surveys. The results of the survey were analyzed by urbanMetrics. Figure E-1 to E-31 summarize the results of urbanMetrics online consumer survey research.

We have used the survey results to estimate the market shares and sales performance of existing retail locations and to establish the degree of outflow of Trade Area residents’ expenditures from the local market. These results have served as key inputs for urbanMetrics’ retail market demand and impact analysis.

56 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-1: SHOPPING PATTERNS IN A TYPICAL MONTH YES NO TOTAL Department stores (such as Wal-Mart, Zellers or the Bay) 95% 5% 100% Warehouse membership clubs (such as Costco) 59% 41% 100% Canadian Tire 96% 4% 100% Auto Parts, Tires & Accessories (Napa Auto, XYZ Tire Shop) 33% 67% 100% General Merchandise & Dollar Stores (Giant Tiger, Dollarama, Liquidation World) 94% 6% 100% Supermarkets (Fortinos, FreshCo., Loblaws, No Frills etc) 99% 1% 100% Specialty Food Stores (meats, breads, small grocery) 74% 26% 100% Health & Personal (Drug, optical, nutrition) 95% 5% 100% Clothes, Shoes, Accessories & Jewelry stores 79% 21% 100% Furniture, Appliances & Home Fashions 41% 59% 100% Electronic, Computers, Cameras & Mobile Devices 52% 48% 100% Building & Outdoor Supply Stores (home improvement, hardware, paint & garden centres) 76% 24% 100% Specialty Stores (office supplies, sporting goods, hobby, art , book, music, florists & pet supplies) 77% 23% 100% Second Hand Merchandise Stores (charity shops, antique & consignment stores) 54% 46% 100% Restaurants (full-service & fast-food) 94% 6% 100% TOTAL 76.6% 23.4% 100%

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-2: DEPARTMENT STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Zellers (formerly in Algo Mall) $17,925 36.0% 104.22 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $17,925 36.0% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $17,925 36.0% n/a Zellers (Sudbury) $1,915 3.8% 16.49 Walmart Supercentre (Sudbury) $20,335 40.8% 135.45 Zellers (Sault Saint Marie) $625 1.3% 10.42 Walmart Supercentre (Sault Saint Marie) $3,700 7.4% 52.86 Zellers - all other locations $500 1.0% 8.93 Walmart - all other locations $4,315 8.7% 57.53 The Bay - all other locations $465 0.9% 6.20 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $31,855 64.0% n/a TOTAL $49,780 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

57 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-3: COSTCO EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL THREE MONTH PERIOD Sum Variable $ % Mean Costco – Sudbury $30,765 92.4% 267.52 Costco – any other location $2,515 7.6% 78.59 TOTAL $33,280 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-4: COSTCO EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Costco – Sudbury $10,255 30.8% 267.52 Costco – any other location $838 2.5% 78.59 TOTAL $11,093 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-5: AUTO PARTS, TIRES & ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Maslack Auto Parts Store $5,895 29.0% 226.73 NAPA Auto Parts $6,895 33.9% 215.47 OK Tire $1,760 8.7% 110 Subtotal Elliot Lake $14,550 71.6% n/a RWAY Autoparts (Blind River) $30 0.1% 2.5 NAPA Auto Parts (Blind River) $5,105 25.1% 425.42 Other North Shore locations $150 0.7% 13.64 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $5,285 26.0% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $19,835 97.7% n/a All Other Locations $475 2.3% 43.18 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $475 2.3% 43.18 TOTAL $20,310 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

58 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-6: CANADIAN TIRE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Canadian Tire – Hillside Dr South $25,339 88.5% 125.19 Subtotal Inside Trade Area $25,339 88.5% n/a Canadian Tire - Sudbury $420 1.5% 7.92 Canadian Tire - Sault Saint Marie $200 0.7% 3.92 Canadian Tire - Espanola $1,445 5.0% 22.58 Canadian Tire - all other locations $1,225 4.3% 24.5 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $3,290 11.5% 22.58 TOTAL $28,629 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-7: OTHER GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Former Dollarama $10,073 40.4% 542.23 Former Bargain Shop $6,580 26.4% 58.23 Elliot Lake Trading Post $1,520 6.1% 17.08 Sears Appliance Lawn & Electronics Store $2,330 9.3% 33.29 The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store & More $771 3.1% 9.88 Subtotal Elliot Lake $21,274 85.3% n/a Dollarwise (Blind River) $258 1.0% 4.69 The Bargain Shop (Blind River) $510 2.0% 9.27 Other North Shore Locations $525 2.1% 10.94 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $1,293 5.2% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $22,567 90.5% n/a All Other Locations $2,365 9.5% 40.08 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $2,365 9.5% n/a TOTAL $24,932 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-8: TOTAL OTHER GENERAL MERCHANDISE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH (PRIMARY ZONE STORES ONLY) Sum Variable $ % Mean Former Dollarama $10,073 21.6% 542.23 Former Bargain Shop $6,580 14.1% 58.23 Elliot Lake Trading Post $1,520 3.3% 17.08 Sears Appliance Lawn & Electronics Store $2,330 5.0% 33.29 The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store & More $771 1.7% 9.88 Canadian Tire $25,339 54.4% 125.19 Subtotal Elliot Lake $46,613 100% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

59 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-9: SUPERMARKET EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Foodland $33,490 33.7% 176.26 No Frills $60,302 60.7% 279.18 Subtotal Elliot Lake $93,792 94.5% n/a Hutton's Valu Mart (Blind River) $1,740 1.8% 29 Subtotal Other North Shore Locatio $1,740 1.8% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $95,532 96.2% n/a All other locations $3,740 3.8% 58.44 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $3,740 3.8% n/a TOTAL $99,272 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-10: CONVENIENCE AND SPECIALTY FOOD STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Elliot Lake Meats & Deli $7,397 51.3% 57.34 M&M Meat Shop $3,195 22.2% 31.95 Hillside Shop & Save $1,185 8.2% 19.43 Breen Coffee Roasters $815 5.7% 18.52 Subtotal Elliot Lake $12,592 87.3% n/a Barrel of Goodies Bulk Food (Blind River) $55 0.4% 1.62 No Name Variety (Blind River) n/a n/a n/a M&M Meat Shop (Blind River) $55 0.4% 1.62 Kwik Way (Blind River) $175 1.2% 4.86 Nyman's Fish Shop (Blind River) $90 0.6% 2.5 Other North Shore Locations $375 2.6% 10.42 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $750 5.2% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $13,342 92.5% n/a All Other Locations $1,075 7.5% 25.6 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $1,075 7.5% n/a TOTAL $14,417 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

60 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-11: PHARMACY & PERSONAL CARE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Shopper's Drug Mart $19,912 60.3% 101.08 Rexall $6,003 18.2% 49.61 Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $1,368 4.1% 22.06 Remedy Rx $1,345 4.1% 21.69 Natural Food & Therapies $1,336 4.0% 19.94 Lyrettes Opticians $1,470 4.5% 26.73 Subtotal Elliot Lake $31,434 95.2% n/a IDA Mitchell Pharmacy (Blind River) $190 0.6% 3.52 Algoma Hearing Centre (Blind River) n/a n/a n/a Lyrettes Opticians (Blind River) $55 0.2% 1.08 Sault Optometry Clinic (Blind River) $80 0.2% 1.60 Other North Shore Locations $540 1.6% 9.82 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $865 2.6% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $32,299 97.8% n/a All other locations $725 2.2% 13.43 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $725 2.2% n/a TOTAL $33,024 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-12: APPAREL & ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL THREE MONTH PERIOD Sum Variable $ % Mean Kevin's Custom Clothiers $375 1.9% 8.52 Saarich's Source for Sports $8,855 44.4% 110.69 Elliot Lake Jewellers $1,235 6.2% 23.3 Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $1,510 7.6% 30.2 Subtotal Elliot Lake $11,975 60.0% n/a Hagger's Family Clothing (Blind River) $1,480 7.4% 30.2 Other North Shore Locations $1,015 5.1% 22.56 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $2,495 12.5% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $14,470 72.5% n/a All other locations $5,480 27.5% 81.79 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $5,480 27.5% n/a TOTAL $19,950 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

61 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-13: APPAREL & ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Kevin's Custom Clothiers $125 1.9% n/a Saarich's Source for Sports $2,952 44.4% n/a Elliot Lake Jewellers $412 6.2% n/a Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $503 7.6% n/a Subtotal Elliot Lake $3,992 60.0% n/a Hagger's Family Clothing (Blind River) $493 7.4% n/a Other North Shore Locations $338 5.1% n/a Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $832 12.5% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $4,823 72.5% n/a All other locations $1,827 27.5% n/a Subtotal Outside Trade Area $1,827 27.5% n/a TOTAL $6,650 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-14: CALIBRATED SURVEY RESULTS (PRIMARY ZONE STORES ONLY) – APPAREL & ACCESSORIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Expenditure Potential Local Market Total Sales Location Market Share ($Millions) Share Inflow ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT Kevin's Custom Clothiers 1.9% $0.14 3.1% 7.5% $0.15 1,535 $100.61 Saarich's Source for Sports 44.4% $3.37 73.9% 7.5% $3.65 1,925 $1,894.47 Elliot Lake Jewellers 6.2% $0.47 10.3% 7.5% $0.51 791 $643.01 Tin Can Alley Family Footwear 7.6% $0.58 12.6% 7.5% $0.62 1,562 $398.13 TOTAL 60.0% $4.56 100.0% $4.93 5,813 $848.41

CALIBRATED Expenditure Potential Local Market Total Sales Location Market Share ($Millions) Share Inflow ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT Kevin's Custom Clothiers 6.5% $0.49 10.8% 7.5% $0.53 1,535 $347.92 Saarich's Source for Sports 35.0% $2.66 58.3% 7.5% $2.88 1,925 $1,493.86 Elliot Lake Jewellers 7.5% $0.57 12.5% 7.5% $0.62 791 $779.03 Tin Can Alley Family Footwear 11.0% $0.84 18.3% 7.5% $0.90 1,562 $578.61 TOTAL 60.0% $4.56 100.0% 30.0% $4.93 5,813 $848.05

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

62 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-15: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS, APPLIANCE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL SIX MONTH PERIOD Sum Variable $ % Mean Seidel's $21,171 60.9% 641.55 Lobek Carpet $1,300 3.7% 76.47 Subtotal Elliot Lake $22,471 64.7% n/a Fern's Carpet (Blind River) $4,340 12.5% 255.29 Other North Shore Locations $3,145 9.0% 174.72 Subtotal Other North Shore Locatio $7,485 21.5% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $29,956 86.2% n/a All other locations $4,800 13.8% 184.62 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $4,800 13.8% n/a TOTAL $34,756 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. FIGURE E-16: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS, APPLIANCE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Seidel's $7,057 20.3% n/a Lobek Carpet $433 1.2% n/a Subtotal Elliot Lake $7,490 21.6% n/a Fern's Carpet (Blind River) $1,447 4.2% n/a Other North Shore Locations $1,048 3.0% n/a Subtotal Other North Shore Locatio $2,495 7.2% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $9,985 28.7% n/a All other locations $1,600 4.6% n/a Subtotal Outside Trade Area $1,600 4.6% n/a TOTAL $11,585 33.3% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. FIGURE E-17: ELECTRONICS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL SIX MONTH PERIOD Sum Variable $ % Mean Computer FX $4,245 23.2% 157.22 The Source by Circuit City $7,989 43.7% 103.75 Appliance Brocker n/a n/a n/a Subtotal Elliot Lake $12,234 66.9% n/a Other North Shore Locations $530 2.9% 20.38 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $530 2.9% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $12,764 69.8% n/a All other locations $5,530 30.2% 125.68 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $5,530 30.2% n/a TOTAL $18,294 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

63 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-18: ELECTRONICS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Computer FX $1,415 7.7% n/a The Source by Circuit City $2,663 14.6% n/a Appliance Brocker n/a n/a n/a Subtotal Elliot Lake $4,078 22.3% n/a Other North Shore Locations $177 1.0% n/a Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $177 1.0% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $4,255 23.3% n/a All other locations $1,843 10.1% n/a Subtotal Outside Trade Area $1,843 10.1% n/a TOTAL $6,098 33.3% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-19: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS, APPLIANCE & ELECTRONICS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Seidel's $7,057 39.9% n/a Lobek Carpet $433 2.5% n/a Computer FX $1,415 8.0% n/a The Source by Circuit City $2,663 15.1% n/a Appliance Brocker n/a n/a n/a Subtotal Elliot Lake $11,568 65.4% n/a Fern's Carpet (Blind River) $1,447 8.2% n/a Furnishings - Other North Shore Locations $1,048 5.9% n/a Electronics - Other North Shore Locations $177 1.0% n/a Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $2,672 15.1% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $14,240 80.5% n/a Furnishings - All other locations $1,600 9.0% n/a Electronics - All other locations $1,843 10.4% n/a Subtotal Outside Trade Area $3,443 19.5% n/a TOTAL $17,683 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

64 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-20: BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Soo Mills $15,785 59.3% 148.92 RONA $7,385 27.7% 76.93 Para Paints $40 0.2% 1.33 Elliot Lake Textile & Drapery $371 1.4% 10.31 Subtotal Elliot Lake $23,581 88.6% n/a Home Hardware (Blind River) $1,325 5.0% 28.8 Other North Shore Locations $175 0.7% 5.65 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $1,500 5.6% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $25,081 94.2% n/a All other locations $1,535 5.8% 40.39 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $1,535 5.8% n/a TOTAL $26,616 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-21: CALIBRATED SURVEY RESULTS (PRIMARY ZONE STORES ONLY) – BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Expenditure Potential Local Market Total Sales Location Market Share ($Millions) Share Inflow ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT Soo Mills 59.3% $6.64 66.9% 7.5% $7.18 20,000 $359.04 RONA 27.7% $3.11 31.3% 7.5% $3.36 7,699 $436.36 Para Paints 0.2% $0.02 0.2% 7.5% $0.02 1,116 $16.31 Elliot Lake Textile & Drapery 1.4% $0.16 1.6% 7.5% $0.17 1,116 $151.23 TOTAL 88.6% $9.92 100.0% $10.73 29,931 $358.41

CALIBRATED Expenditure Potential Local Market Total Sales Location Market Share ($Millions) Share Inflow ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT Subtotal Inside Trade Area 59.1% $6.62 66.7% 7.5% $7.16 20,000 $357.79 All other locations 25.5% $2.86 28.8% 7.5% $3.09 12,000 $257.30 Subtotal Outside Trade Area 1.5% $0.17 1.7% 7.5% $0.18 1,116 $162.74 TOTAL 2.5% $0.28 2.8% 7.5% $0.30 1,116 $271.24 TOTAL 88.6% $9.92 100.0% $10.73 34,232 $313.38

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

65 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-22: SPECIALTY STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Cellar Guitars $57 0.5% 1.5 Pet Valu $3,767 32.6% 43.3 Pet Headquarters $1,213 10.5% 22.46 Debyes Pets $1,460 12.6% 27.55 Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) $680 5.9% 13.6 Quality Flowers & Gifts $498 4.3% 10.83 Subtotal Elliot Lake $7,675 66.4% n/a The Birch Tree Gifts (Blind River) $35 0.3% 0.92 Michou's County Treasures (Blind River) $10 0.1% 0.28 Union Stationary (Blind River) $55 0.5% 1.53 Northern County Flowers (Blind River) $135 1.2% 3.65 Me & You Wine & Brew $1,475 12.8% 29.5 Finn & Friends Art & Glass Studio n/a n/a n/a Other North Shore Locations $260 2.3% 6.67 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $1,970 17.0% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $9,645 83.5% n/a All other locations $1,910 16.5% 36.04 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $1,910 16.5% n/a TOTAL $11,555 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-23: USE MERCHANDISE STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items n/a n/a n/a The Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) $20 0.6% 0.83 St. Vincent de Paul $1,456 40.1% 20.51 Salvation Army $837 23.1% 14.95 You Save Furniture Second Hand $197 5.4% 7.30 Subtotal Elliot Lake $2,510 69.1% n/a Dorca's House Thrift Shop (Blind River) $40 1.1% 1.67 Other North Shore Locations $240 6.6% 8.00 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $280 7.7% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $2,790 76.9% n/a All other locations $840 23.1% 24.00 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $840 23.1% n/a TOTAL $3,630 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

66 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-24: TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean Cellar Guitars $57 0.4% 1.5 Pet Valu $3,767 24.8% 43.3 Pet Headquarters $1,213 8.0% 22.46 Debyes Pets $1,460 9.6% 27.55 Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) $680 4.5% 13.6 Quality Flowers & Gifts $498 3.3% 10.83 Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items n/a n/a n/a The Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) $20 0.1% 0.83 St. Vincent de Paul $1,456 9.6% 20.51 Salvation Army $837 5.5% 14.95 You Save Furniture Second Hand $197 1.3% 7.30 Subtotal Elliot Lake $10,185 67.1% n/a The Birch Tree Gifts (Blind River) $35 0.2% 0.92 Michou's County Treasures (Blind River) $10 0.1% 0.28 Union Stationary (Blind River) $55 0.4% 1.53 Northern County Flowers (Blind River) $135 0.9% 3.65 Me & You Wine & Brew $1,475 9.7% 29.5 Finn & Friends Art & Glass Studio n/a n/a n/a Other North Shore Locations $260 1.7% 6.67 Dorca's House Thrift Shop (Blind River) $40 0.3% 1.67 Other North Shore Locations $240 1.6% 8.00 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $2,250 14.8% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $12,435 81.9% n/a All other locations - Specialty $1,910 12.6% 36.04 All other locations - 2nd Hand $840 5.5% 24.00 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $2,750 18.1% n/a TOTAL $15,185 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

67 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-25: CALIBRATED SURVEY RESULTS (PRIMARY ZONE STORES ONLY) – TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS STORE EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH

Expenditure Potential Local Market Total Sales Location Market Share ($Millions) Share Inflow ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT Cellar Guitars 0.4% $0.02 0.6% 15% $0.02 446 $48.52 Pet Valu 24.8% $1.22 37.0% 15% $1.43 1,050 $1,361.97 Pet Headquarters 8.0% $0.39 11.9% 15% $0.46 1,302 $353.68 Debyes Pets 9.6% $0.47 14.3% 15% $0.55 781 $709.68 Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) 4.5% $0.22 6.7% 15% $0.26 1,302 $198.27 Quality Flowers & Gifts 3.3% $0.16 4.9% 15% $0.19 558 $338.81 Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items 0.0% $0.00 0.0% 15% $0.00 781 $0.00 The Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) 0.1% $0.01 0.2% 15% $0.01 837 $9.07 St. Vincent de Paul 9.6% $0.47 14.3% 15% $0.55 1,590 $347.64 Salvation Army 5.5% $0.27 8.2% 15% $0.32 530 $599.53 You Save Furniture Second Hand 1.3% $0.06 1.9% 15% $0.07 446 $167.68 TOTAL 67.1% $4.90 100.0% $3.87 9,623 $401.80

CALIBRATED Expenditure Potential Local Market Total Sales Location Market Share ($Millions) Share Inflow ($Millions) SQFT Sales Per SQFT Cellar Guitars 2.0% $0.10 3.0% 15% $0.12 446 $258.51 Pet Valu 12.0% $0.59 17.9% 15% $0.69 1,050 $658.82 Pet Headquarters 8.0% $0.39 11.9% 15% $0.46 1,302 $353.68 Debyes Pets 8.2% $0.40 12.2% 15% $0.47 781 $605.26 Office Supplies (Prince Edward Walk) 6.0% $0.29 8.9% 15% $0.35 1,302 $265.65 Quality Flowers & Gifts 3.3% $0.16 4.9% 15% $0.19 558 $338.81 Electronics Plus New & Refurbished Items 5.0% $0.25 7.5% 15% $0.29 781 $369.06 The Store (Buy, Sell, Trade) 5.0% $0.25 7.5% 15% $0.29 837 $344.37 St. Vincent de Paul 9.6% $0.47 14.3% 15% $0.55 1,590 $347.64 Salvation Army 5.5% $0.27 8.2% 15% $0.32 530 $599.53 You Save Furniture Second Hand 2.5% $0.12 3.7% 15% $0.14 446 $323.13 TOTAL 67.1% $4.90 100.0% $3.87 9,623 $401.77

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

68 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-26: RESTAURANT EXPENDITURES IN A TYPICAL MONTH Sum Variable $ % Mean KFC $1,593 3.7% 17.13 Coachman Restaurant $788 1.8% 12.51 Fireside Classic Grill $9,718 22.5% 70.42 Tim Hortons $7,414 17.2% 40.74 McDonalds $4,268 9.9% 28.45 New Orleans Pizza, Wings & More $647 1.5% 9.8 Michelles Bakery and Cafe $160 0.4% 3.08 Viking Fish & Chips $1,558 3.6% 16.75 Bankside Cafe $45 0.1% 0.87 C&Ts Restaurant $526 1.2% 8.62 Maple Restaurant Chinese Canadian $865 2.0% 12.72 Wil's Cove Restaurant $1,279 3.0% 19.09 Jane's Tea Garden $1,360 3.1% 18.63 Dairy Queen $1,200 2.8% 17.14 Java Jolt Cafe $117 0.3% 2.02 Topper Pizza $3,090 7.2% 25.54 Regie's On the Hill $1,565 3.6% 20.87 Subway $2,939 6.8% 21.93 Subtotal Elliot Lake $39,132 90.6% n/a Other North Shore Locations $1,470 3.4% 24.5 Subtotal Other North Shore Locations $1,470 3.4% n/a Subtotal Inside Trade Area $40,602 94.0% n/a All other locations $2,585 6.0% 37.46 Subtotal Outside Trade Area $2,585 6.0% n/a TOTAL $43,187 100.0% n/a

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE E-27: TYPICAL HOUSEHOLD SIZE Number of Survey Results Residents Per # % Residents Per Household 1 42 15.8% 2 145 54.7% n/a 0.4% 3 31 11.7% 6 2.3% 4 28 10.6% 5 4.5% 5 12 4.5% Residents Per 4 6 6 2.3% 10.6% Household n/a 1 0.4% 3 11.7% TOTAL 265 100.0% 2 54.7% SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1 15.8%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

69 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-28: AGE OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS Response Percentage Count Under 25 4% 11 25-34 8% 26 35-44 12% 36 45-54 20% 62 55-64 29% 89 65-74 22% 70 75 and over 6% 18 Total Responses 312

FIGURE E-29: GENDER OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS Response Percentage Count Male 27% 85 Female 73% 225 Total Responses 310

FIGURE E-30: NFSR DISTRIBUTION

TOTAL EXPENDITURES (Not Weighted) Store Category 2011 Provincial $ % Distribution Health and personal care stores $33,024 14.1% 17.1% Clothing and clothing accessories stores $6,650 2.8% 13.9% Furniture and home furnishings stores & Electronics and appliance stores $17,683 7.6% 14.7% Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers $26,791 11.5% 13.1% Other General merchandise stores $64,554 27.6% 14.2% Department stores $49,780 21.3% 14.8% Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores $20,310 8.7% 2.1% Other NFSR $15,185 6.5% 10.0% TOTAL ALL NFSR STORES $233,977 100.0% 100.0%

TOTAL EXPENDITURES (Weighted) Store Category $ Millions % Health and personal care stores $13.8 15.6% Clothing and clothing accessories stores $7.4 8.4% Furniture and home furnishings stores & Electronics and appliance stores $9.8 11.1% Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers $10.8 12.3% General merchandise stores $18.4 20.9% Department stores $15.9 18.0% Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores $4.8 5.4% Other NFSR $7.3 8.2% TOTAL ALL NFSR STORES $88.2 100.0%

TOTAL NFSR EXPENDITURES 2012 ($ Millions) $88.2

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

70 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-31: FSR DISTRIBUTION TOTAL Store Category 2011 Provincial $ Millions % Distribution Supermarkets (Fortinos, FreshCo., Loblaws, No Frills etc) $99,272 87.3% 87.4% Specialty Food Stores (meats, breads, small grocery) $14,417 12.7% 12.6% TOTAL ALL FSR STORES $113,689 100.0% 100.0%

TOTAL Store Category $ Millions % Supermarkets (Fortinos, FreshCo., Loblaws, No Frills etc) $33.5 87.4% Specialty Food Stores (meats, breads, small grocery) $4.8 12.6% TOTAL ALL FSR STORES $38.3 100.0%

TOTAL FSR EXPENDITURES 2012 ($ Millions) $38.3

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

71 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX F – RETAIL IMPACT ANALYSIS

Figures E-1 to E-7 summarize our retail market impact analysis for the following FSR and NFSR categories:

• Supermarkets; • Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores; • Pharmacy and Personal Care Stores; • Clothing and Accessories Stores; • Furniture, Home Furnishings and Electronics Stores; • General Merchandise Stores; and • Miscellaneous Retail Stores.

72 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-1: SUPERMARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS

Sales From Study Area Percent Market Sales Per Residents Share in Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Primary Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year 2011 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 28.9 100.0% 10.0% $ 32.1 60,816 $ 528 No Frills $ 18.6 64.3% 10.0% $ 20.6 34,010 $ 607 Foodland (Former) $ 10.3 35.7% 10.0% $ 11.5 26,806 $ 428

2014 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 30.0 100.0% 8.9% $ 32.9 62,010 $ 531 No Frills $ 17.0 56.8% 10.0% $ 18.9 34,010 $ 557 -8.3% Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Total Existing $ 17.0 56.8% 10.0% $ 18.9 34,010 $ 557 5.4%

Proposed: Foodland (Reconstruction) $ 13.0 43.2% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500 Total Proposed $ 13.0 43.2% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500

2016 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 30.2 100.0% 8.9% $ 33.2 62,010 $ 535 No Frills $ 17.3 57.1% 10.0% $ 19.2 34,010 $ 564 -7.2% Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Total Existing $ 17.3 57.1% 10.0% $ 19.2 34,010 $ 564 6.7%

Proposed: Foodland (Reconstruction) $ 13.0 42.9% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500 Total Proposed $ 13.0 42.9% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500

2021 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 31.0 100.0% 9.0% $ 34.1 62,010 $ 549 No Frills $ 18.1 58.2% 10.0% $ 20.1 34,010 $ 590 -2.9% Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Total Existing $ 18.1 58.2% 10.0% $ 20.1 34,010 $ 590 11.7%

Proposed: Foodland (Reconstruction) $ 13.0 41.8% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500 Total Proposed $ 13.0 41.8% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500

2026 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 31.6 100.0% 9.0% $ 34.7 62,010 $ 560 No Frills $ 18.7 59.0% 10.0% $ 20.7 34,010 $ 609 0.4% Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Total Existing $ 18.7 59.0% 10.0% $ 20.7 34,010 $ 609 15.4%

Proposed: Foodland (Reconstruction) $ 13.0 41.0% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500 Total Proposed $ 13.0 41.0% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500

2031 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 32.2 100.0% 9.0% $ 35.3 62,010 $ 570 No Frills $19.20 59.7% 10.0% $ 21.3 34,010 $ 627 3.3% Foodland (Former) $ - 0.0% 10.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Total Existing $ 19.2 59.7% 10.0% $ 21.3 34,010 $ 627 18.8%

Proposed: Foodland (Reconstruction) $ 13.0 40.3% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500 Total Proposed $ 13.0 40.3% 7.5% $ 14.0 28,000 $ 500

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey. 2) urbanMetrics estimates.

73 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-2: BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS

Percent Sales From Market Study Area Share in Sales Per Residents Primary Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year 2011 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 8.7 100.0% 10.0% $ 9.7 29,931 $ 323 Soo Mills $ 5.8 66.7% 10.0% $ 6.4 20,000 $ 322 RONA $ 2.5 28.8% 10.0% $ 2.8 7,699 $ 362 Para Paints $ 0.1 1.7% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 147 Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.2 2.8% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 243

2014 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 9.3 100.0% 10.0% $ 10.3 39,232 $ 263 Soo Mills $ 5.5 58.8% 10.0% $ 6.1 20,000 $ 304 -5.8% RONA (Expansion) $ 2.4 25.4% 10.0% $ 2.6 12,000 $ 219 -39.6% Para Paints $ 0.1 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 139 -5.8% Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.2 2.5% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 228 -5.8% Total Existing $ 8.2 88.1% 10.0% $ 9.1 34,232 $ 266 -17.6%

Proposed: Elliot Lake - General Location(s) $ 1.1 11.9% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,000 $ 246 Total Proposed $ 1.1 11.9% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,000 $ 246

2016 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 9.6 100.0% 10.0% $ 10.7 39,232 $ 272 Soo Mills $ 5.7 59.0% 10.0% $ 6.3 20,000 $ 315 -2.4% RONA (Expansion) $ 2.4 25.5% 10.0% $ 2.7 12,000 $ 227 -37.4% Para Paints $ 0.1 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 144 -2.4% Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.2 2.5% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 237 -2.4% Total Existing $ 8.5 88.5% 10.0% $ 9.4 34,232 $ 276 -14.6%

Proposed: Elliot Lake - General Location(s) $ 1.1 11.5% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,000 $ 246 Total Proposed $ 1.1 11.5% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,000 $ 246

2021 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 10.4 100.0% 10.0% $ 11.6 39,232 $ 295 Soo Mills $ 6.1 58.5% 10.0% $ 6.8 20,000 $ 338 4.9% RONA (Expansion) $ 2.6 25.3% 10.0% $ 2.9 12,000 $ 243 -32.7% Para Paints $ 0.2 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 154 4.9% Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.3 2.5% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 254 4.9% Total Existing $ 9.1 87.7% 10.0% $ 10.1 34,232 $ 296 -8.3%

Proposed: Elliot Lake - General Location(s) $ 1.3 12.3% 10.0% $ 1.4 5,000 $ 283 Total Proposed $ 1.3 12.3% 10.0% $ 1.4 5,000 $ 283

2026 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 11.3 100.0% 10.0% $ 12.6 39,232 $ 320 Soo Mills $ 6.6 58.7% 10.0% $ 7.4 20,000 $ 368 14.3% RONA (Expansion) $ 2.9 25.3% 10.0% $ 3.2 12,000 $ 265 -26.7% Para Paints $ 0.2 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 168 14.3% Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.3 2.5% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 277 14.3% Total Existing $ 9.9 88.0% 10.0% $ 11.0 34,232 $ 323 -0.1%

Proposed: Elliot Lake - General Location(s) $ 1.4 12.0% 10.0% $ 1.5 5,000 $ 302 Total Proposed $ 1.4 12.0% 10.0% $ 1.5 5,000 $ 302

2031 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 12.0 100.0% 10.0% $ 13.3 39,232 $ 340 Soo Mills $ 7.0 58.2% 10.0% $ 7.8 20,000 $ 388 20.2% RONA (Expansion) $ 3.0 25.1% 10.0% $ 3.3 12,000 $ 279 -22.9% Para Paints $ 0.2 1.5% 10.0% $ 0.2 1,116 $ 177 20.2% Elliot Lake Textile and Drapery $ 0.3 2.4% 10.0% $ 0.3 1,116 $ 292 20.2% Total Existing $ 10.5 87.2% 10.0% $ 11.6 34,232 $ 340 5.1%

Proposed: Elliot Lake - General Location(s) $ 1.5 12.8% 10.0% $ 1.7 5,000 $ 340 Total Proposed $ 1.5 12.8% 10.0% $ 1.7 5,000 $ 340

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey. 2) urbanMetrics estimates.

74 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-3: PHARMACIES AND PERSONAL CARE STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS

Percent Sales From Market Study Area Share in Sales Per Residents Primary Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year 2011 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 12.3 100.0% 10.0% $ 13.7 36,230 $ 377 Shoppers Drug Mart $ 7.8 63.3% 10.0% $ 8.7 18,860 $ 459 Rexall $ 2.3 19.1% 10.0% $ 2.6 9,440 $ 277 Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.5 4.4% 10.0% $ 0.6 3,162 $ 190 Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.5 4.3% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,339 $ 439 Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.5 4.2% 10.0% $ 0.6 750 $ 765 Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.6 4.7% 10.0% $ 0.6 2,678 $ 240

2014 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 14.4 100.0% 10.0% $ 16.0 38,230 $ 419 Shoppers Drug Mart $ 8.4 58.6% 10.0% $ 9.4 18,860 $ 497 8.3% Rexall $ 2.5 17.7% 10.0% $ 2.8 9,440 $ 299 8.3% Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.6 4.1% 10.0% $ 0.7 3,162 $ 206 8.3% Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.6 4.0% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,339 $ 475 8.3% Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.6 3.9% 10.0% $ 0.6 750 $ 829 8.3% Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.6 4.3% 10.0% $ 0.7 2,678 $ 260 8.3% Total Existing $ 13.3 92.5% 10.0% $ 14.8 36,230 $ 409 8.3%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.1 7.5% 10.0% $ 1.2 2,000 $ 600 Total Proposed $ 1.1 7.5% 10.0% $ 1.2 2,000 $ 600

2016 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 14.7 100.0% 10.0% $ 16.3 38,230 $ 427 Shoppers Drug Mart $ 8.6 58.6% 10.0% $ 9.6 18,860 $ 508 10.7% Rexall $ 2.6 17.7% 10.0% $ 2.9 9,440 $ 306 10.7% Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.6 4.1% 10.0% $ 0.7 3,162 $ 211 10.7% Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.6 4.0% 10.0% $ 0.7 1,339 $ 486 10.7% Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.6 3.9% 10.0% $ 0.6 750 $ 847 10.7% Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.6 4.4% 10.0% $ 0.7 2,678 $ 266 10.7% Total Existing $ 13.6 92.7% 10.0% $ 15.1 36,230 $ 418 10.7%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.1 7.3% 10.0% $ 1.2 2,000 $ 600 Total Proposed $ 1.1 7.3% 10.0% $ 1.2 2,000 $ 600

2021 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 16.0 100.0% 10.0% $ 17.8 38,230 $ 465 Shoppers Drug Mart $ 9.4 58.7% 10.0% $ 10.4 18,860 $ 553 20.6% Rexall $ 2.8 17.7% 10.0% $ 3.1 9,440 $ 333 20.6% Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.7 4.1% 10.0% $ 0.7 3,162 $ 229 20.6% Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.6 4.0% 10.0% $ 0.7 1,339 $ 529 20.6% Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.6 3.9% 10.0% $ 0.7 750 $ 923 20.6% Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.7 4.4% 10.0% $ 0.8 2,678 $ 289 20.6% Total Existing $ 14.8 92.7% 10.0% $ 16.5 36,230 $ 455 20.6%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.2 7.3% 10.0% $ 1.3 2,000 $ 650 Total Proposed $ 1.2 7.3% 10.0% $ 1.3 2,000 $ 650

2026 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 17.1 100.0% 10.0% $ 19.0 38,230 $ 497 Shoppers Drug Mart $ 10.1 59.0% 10.0% $ 11.2 18,860 $ 594 29.5% Rexall $ 3.0 17.8% 10.0% $ 3.4 9,440 $ 358 29.5% Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.7 4.1% 10.0% $ 0.8 3,162 $ 246 29.5% Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.7 4.0% 10.0% $ 0.8 1,339 $ 568 29.5% Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.7 3.9% 10.0% $ 0.7 750 $ 991 29.5% Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.7 4.4% 10.0% $ 0.8 2,678 $ 311 29.5% Total Existing $ 15.9 93.2% 10.0% $ 17.7 36,230 $ 489 29.5%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.2 6.8% 10.0% $ 1.3 2,000 $ 650 Total Proposed $ 1.2 6.8% 10.0% $ 1.3 2,000 $ 650

2031 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 18.3 100.0% 10.0% $ 20.3 38,230 $ 531 Shoppers Drug Mart $ 10.8 58.9% 10.0% $ 12.0 18,860 $ 634 38.3% Rexall $ 3.2 17.8% 10.0% $ 3.6 9,440 $ 382 38.3% Freitags Remedy Rx Pharmacy $ 0.7 4.1% 10.0% $ 0.8 3,162 $ 263 38.3% Natural Food and Therapies $ 0.7 4.0% 10.0% $ 0.8 1,339 $ 607 38.3% Lyrettes Opticians $ 0.7 3.9% 10.0% $ 0.8 750 $ 1,058 38.3% Elliot Lake Pharma Choice $ 0.8 4.4% 10.0% $ 0.9 2,678 $ 332 38.3% Total Existing $ 17.0 93.1% 10.0% $ 18.9 36,230 $ 522 38.3%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.3 6.9% 10.0% $ 1.4 2,000 $ 700 Total Proposed $ 1.3 6.9% 10.0% $ 1.4 2,000 $ 700

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey. 2) urbanMetrics estimates.

75 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-4: CLOTHING AND ACCESSORIES STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS

Percent Sales From Market Study Area Share in Sales Per Residents Primary Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year 2011 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 4.5 100.0% 10.0% $ 5.0 5,813 $ 860 Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 10.9% 10.0% $ 0.5 1,535 $ 355 Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.6 12.5% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 790 Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 18.3% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 586 Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.6 58.3% 10.0% $ 2.9 1,925 $ 1,514

2014 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 6.6 100.0% 10.0% $ 7.3 14,413 $ 509 Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 7.0% 10.0% $ 0.5 1,535 $ 336 -5.3% Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.5 8.1% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 748 -5.3% Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 11.8% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 555 -5.3% Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.5 37.6% 10.0% $ 2.8 1,925 $ 1,434 -5.3% Total Existing $ 4.3 64.5% 10.0% $ 4.7 5,813 $ 814 -5.3%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 2.3 35.5% 10.0% $ 2.6 8,600 $ 302 Total Proposed $ 2.3 35.5% 10.0% $ 2.6 8,600 $ 302

2016 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 6.7 100.0% 10.0% $ 7.4 14,413 $ 517 Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 6.9% 10.0% $ 0.5 1,535 $ 337 -5.1% Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.5 8.0% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 750 -5.1% Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 11.7% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 556 -5.1% Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.5 37.2% 10.0% $ 2.8 1,925 $ 1,437 -5.1% Total Existing $ 4.3 63.7% 10.0% $ 4.7 5,813 $ 816 -5.1%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 2.4 36.3% 10.0% $ 2.7 8,600 $ 314 Total Proposed $ 2.4 36.3% 10.0% $ 2.7 8,600 $ 314

2021 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 7.2 100.0% 10.0% $ 8.0 14,413 $ 555 Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 6.9% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,535 $ 362 2.0% Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.6 8.0% 10.0% $ 0.6 791 $ 806 2.0% Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.8 11.7% 10.0% $ 0.9 1,562 $ 598 2.0% Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.7 37.2% 10.0% $ 3.0 1,925 $ 1,545 2.0% Total Existing $ 4.6 63.8% 10.0% $ 5.1 5,813 $ 877 2.0%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 2.6 36.3% 10.0% $ 2.9 8,600 $ 337 Total Proposed $ 2.6 36.3% 10.0% $ 2.9 8,600 $ 337

2026 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 7.8 100.0% 10.0% $ 8.7 14,413 $ 601 Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.5 6.9% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,535 $ 388 9.3% Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.6 7.9% 10.0% $ 0.7 791 $ 864 9.3% Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 0.9 11.5% 10.0% $ 1.0 1,562 $ 640 9.3% Saarich's Source For Sports $ 2.9 36.8% 10.0% $ 3.2 1,925 $ 1,656 9.3% Total Existing $ 4.9 63.1% 10.0% $ 5.5 5,813 $ 940 9.3%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 2.9 36.9% 10.0% $ 3.2 8,600 $ 372 Total Proposed $ 2.9 36.9% 10.0% $ 3.2 8,600 $ 372

2031 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 8.3 100.0% 10.0% $ 9.2 14,413 $ 638 Kevin's Custom Clothiers $ 0.6 6.9% 10.0% $ 0.6 1,535 $ 412 16.0% Elliot Lake Jewelers $ 0.7 7.9% 10.0% $ 0.7 791 $ 917 16.0% Tin Can Alley Family Footwear $ 1.0 11.5% 10.0% $ 1.1 1,562 $ 680 16.0% Saarich's Source For Sports $ 3.0 36.8% 10.0% $ 3.4 1,925 $ 1,757 16.0% Total Existing $ 5.2 63.0% 10.0% $ 5.8 5,813 $ 998 16.0%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 3.1 37.0% 10.0% $ 3.4 8,600 $ 395 Total Proposed $ 3.1 37.0% 10.0% $ 3.4 8,600 $ 395

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey. 2) urbanMetrics estimates.

76 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-5: FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS AND ELECTRONICS IMPACT ANALYSIS

Percent Sales From Market Study Area Share in Sales Per Residents Primary Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year 2011 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 6.3 100.0% 15.0% $ 7.4 24,944 $ 297 Seidel's $ 3.8 61.0% 15.0% $ 4.5 17,112 $ 264 Lobek Carpet $ 0.2 3.8% 15.0% $ 0.3 2,500 $ 113 Computer FX $ 0.8 12.2% 15.0% $ 0.9 930 $ 972 The Source-Circuit City $ 1.4 23.0% 15.0% $ 1.7 1,302 $ 1,309 Appliance Broker $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - 3,100 $ -

2014 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 6.7 100.0% 15.0% $ 7.9 26,142 $ 302 Seidel's $ 4.7 70.0% 15.0% $ 5.5 17,112 $ 322 22.0% Lobek Carpet $ 0.4 6.6% 15.0% $ 0.5 2,500 $ 208 84.7% Computer FX $ 0.3 5.0% 15.0% $ 0.4 930 $ 424 -56.4% The Source-Circuit City $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Appliance Broker $ 0.5 7.0% 15.0% $ 0.6 3,100 $ 178 n/a Total Existing $ 5.9 88.6% 15.0% $ 7.0 23,642 $ 295 -0.6%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 0.8 11.4% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360 Total Proposed $ 0.8 11.4% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360

2016 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 6.9 100.0% 15.0% $ 8.1 26,142 $ 311 Seidel's $ 4.8 70.2% 15.0% $ 5.7 17,112 $ 333 26.1% Lobek Carpet $ 0.5 6.6% 15.0% $ 0.5 2,500 $ 215 90.9% Computer FX $ 0.3 5.0% 15.0% $ 0.4 930 $ 438 -55.0% The Source-Circuit City $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Appliance Broker $ 0.5 7.0% 15.0% $ 0.6 3,100 $ 184 n/a Total Existing $ 6.1 88.9% 15.0% $ 7.2 23,642 $ 305 2.7%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 0.8 11.1% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360 Total Proposed $ 0.8 11.1% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360

2021 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 7.3 100.0% 15.0% $ 8.6 26,142 $ 329 Seidel's $ 5.2 70.7% 15.0% $ 6.1 17,112 $ 355 34.4% Lobek Carpet $ 0.5 6.7% 15.0% $ 0.6 2,500 $ 229 103.3% Computer FX $ 0.4 5.1% 15.0% $ 0.4 930 $ 467 -52.0% The Source-Circuit City $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Appliance Broker $ 0.5 7.1% 15.0% $ 0.6 3,100 $ 196 n/a Total Existing $ 6.5 89.5% 15.0% $ 7.7 23,642 $ 325 9.4%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 0.8 10.5% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360 Total Proposed $ 0.8 10.5% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360

2026 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 7.9 100.0% 15.0% $ 9.3 26,142 $ 356 Seidel's $ 5.6 71.4% 15.0% $ 6.6 17,112 $ 388 46.7% Lobek Carpet $ 0.5 6.7% 15.0% $ 0.6 2,500 $ 250 122.0% Computer FX $ 0.4 5.1% 15.0% $ 0.5 930 $ 509 -47.6% The Source-Circuit City $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Appliance Broker $ 0.6 7.1% 15.0% $ 0.7 3,100 $ 214 n/a Total Existing $ 7.1 90.3% 15.0% $ 8.4 23,642 $ 355 19.5%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 0.8 9.7% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360 Total Proposed $ 0.8 9.7% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360

2031 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 8.4 100.0% 15.0% $ 9.9 26,142 $ 380 Seidel's $ 6.1 71.8% 15.0% $ 7.1 17,112 $ 417 57.7% Lobek Carpet $ 0.6 6.8% 15.0% $ 0.7 2,500 $ 269 138.7% Computer FX $ 0.4 5.1% 15.0% $ 0.5 930 $ 548 -43.7% The Source-Circuit City $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Appliance Broker $ 0.6 7.2% 15.0% $ 0.7 3,100 $ 230 n/a Total Existing $ 7.7 90.9% 15.0% $ 9.0 23,642 $ 382 28.5%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 0.8 9.1% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360 Total Proposed $ 0.8 9.1% 15.0% $ 0.9 2,500 $ 360

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey. 2) urbanMetrics estimates.

77 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-6: GENERAL MERHCNANDISE STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS

Percent Sales From Market Study Area Share in Sales Per Residents Primary Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year 2011 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 15.6 100.0% 15.0% $ 18.4 35,767 $ 513 Dollarama (former) $ 3.4 21.6% 15.0% $ 4.0 6,832 $ 580 The Bargain Shop (former) $ 2.2 14.1% 15.0% $ 2.6 11,114 $ 233 Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 0.5 3.3% 15.0% $ 0.6 5,100 $ 119 Canadian Tire $ 8.5 54.4% 15.0% $ 10.0 22,000 $ 454 Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 0.8 5.0% 15.0% $ 0.9 8,221 $ 112 The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.2 1.6% 15.0% $ 0.3 446 $ 658

2014 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 24.5 99.8% 14.9% $ 28.8 61,367 $ 469 Dollarama (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% The Bargain Shop (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 0.8 3.3% 15.0% $ 0.9 5,100 $ 186 56.8% Canadian Tire $ 13.4 54.7% 15.0% $ 15.8 22,000 $ 716 57.8% Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 1.2 4.8% 15.0% $ 1.4 8,221 $ 168 50.8% The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.4 1.7% 15.0% $ 0.5 446 $ 1,086 64.9% Total Existing $ 15.8 64.4% 15.0% $ 18.6 35,767 $ 519 1.2%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 8.7 35.4% 15.0% $ 10.2 25,600 $ 398 Total Proposed $ 8.7 35.4% 15.0% $ 10.2 25,600 $ 398

2016 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 25.3 99.8% 15.0% $ 29.8 61,367 $ 485 Dollarama (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% The Bargain Shop (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 0.8 3.3% 15.0% $ 1.0 5,100 $ 193 62.7% Canadian Tire $ 13.9 54.8% 15.0% $ 16.3 22,000 $ 743 63.7% Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 1.2 4.8% 15.0% $ 1.4 8,221 $ 175 56.4% The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.4 1.7% 15.0% $ 0.5 446 $ 1,126 71.0% Total Existing $ 16.4 64.5% 15.0% $ 19.3 35,767 $ 539 5.0%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 8.9 35.3% 15.0% $ 10.5 25,600 $ 410 Total Proposed $ 8.9 35.3% 15.0% $ 10.5 25,600 $ 410

2021 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 27.4 99.8% 15.0% $ 32.2 61,367 $ 525 Dollarama (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% The Bargain Shop (former) $ - 0.0% 0.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 0.9 3.3% 15.0% $ 1.1 5,100 $ 210 76.8% Canadian Tire $ 15.1 54.9% 15.0% $ 17.8 22,000 $ 807 77.9% Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 1.3 4.8% 15.0% $ 1.6 8,221 $ 190 69.9% The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.5 1.7% 15.0% $ 0.5 446 $ 1,224 85.9% Total Existing $ 17.8 64.7% 15.0% $ 20.9 35,767 $ 585 14.1%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 9.6 35.1% 15.0% $ 11.3 25,600 $ 441 Total Proposed $ 9.6 35.1% 15.0% $ 11.3 25,600 $ 441

2026 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 29.4 100.1% 15.0% $ 34.6 61,367 $ 564 Dollarama (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% The Bargain Shop (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 1.0 3.3% 15.0% $ 1.2 5,100 $ 226 90.7% Canadian Tire $ 16.3 55.2% 15.0% $ 19.2 22,000 $ 871 91.9% Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 1.4 5.1% 15.0% $ 1.7 8,221 $ 205 83.4% The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.5 1.7% 15.0% $ 0.6 446 $ 1,320 100.5% Total Existing $ 19.2 65.4% 15.0% $ 22.6 35,767 $ 632 23.1%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 10.2 34.7% 15.0% $ 12.0 25,600 $ 469 Total Proposed $ 10.2 34.7% 15.0% $ 12.0 25,600 $ 469

2031 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE $ 31.5 98.1% 15.0% $ 37.0 61,367 $ 603 Dollarama (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% The Bargain Shop (former) $ - 0.0% 15.0% $ - - $ - 0.0% Elliot Lake Trading Post $ 1.1 3.3% 15.0% $ 1.2 5,100 $ 243 104.3% Canadian Tire $ 17.4 53.4% 15.0% $ 20.5 22,000 $ 933 105.6% Sears -Appliance Lawn Electronics $ 1.5 5.1% 15.0% $ 1.8 8,221 $ 219 96.4% The Buck Stops Here Dollar Store and More $ 0.5 1.7% 15.0% $ 0.6 446 $ 1,415 114.9% Total Existing $ 20.6 63.5% 15.0% $ 24.2 35,767 $ 677 31.9%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 10.9 34.6% 15.0% $ 12.8 25,600 $ 500 Total Proposed $ 10.9 34.6% 15.0% $ 12.8 25,600 $ 500

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey. 2) urbanMetrics estimates.

78 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-7: MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS

Percent Sales From Market Study Area Share in Sales Per Residents Primary Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year 2011 Total Proposed $ 3.1 100.0% 5.0% $ 3.3 9,625 $ 339 Pet Value $ 1.1 37.0% 5.0% $ 1.2 1,050 $ 1,150 Pet Headquarters $ 0.4 11.9% 5.0% $ 0.4 1,302 $ 298 Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - Debyes Pets $ 0.4 14.3% 5.0% $ 0.5 781 $ 599 Office Supplies $ 0.2 6.7% 5.0% $ 0.2 1,302 $ 167 Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.2 4.9% 5.0% $ 0.2 558 $ 286 The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.2% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 8 St Vincent De Paul $ 0.4 14.3% 5.0% $ 0.5 1,590 $ 293 Salvation Army $ 0.3 8.2% 5.0% $ 0.3 530 $ 506 You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.9% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 141 Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.6% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 41

2014 Total Proposed $ 4.6 100.0% 6.1% $ 4.9 15,325 $ 320 Pet Value $ 1.3 29.0% 5.0% $ 1.4 1,050 $ 1,339 16.5% Pet Headquarters $ 0.4 9.3% 5.0% $ 0.5 1,302 $ 348 16.5% Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - n/a Debyes Pets $ 0.5 11.2% 5.0% $ 0.5 781 $ 697 16.5% Office Supplies $ 0.2 5.2% 5.0% $ 0.3 1,302 $ 195 16.5% Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.2 3.8% 5.0% $ 0.2 558 $ 333 16.5% The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.2% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 9 16.5% St Vincent De Paul $ 0.5 11.2% 5.0% $ 0.5 1,590 $ 342 16.5% Salvation Army $ 0.3 6.5% 5.0% $ 0.3 530 $ 589 16.5% You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.5% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 164 16.5% Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.4% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 48 16.5% Total Existing $ 3.6 78.5% 5.0% $ 3.8 9,625 $ 395 16.5%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.0 21.5% 10.0% $ 1.1 5,700 $ 193 Total Proposed $ 1.0 21.5% 10.0% $ 1.1 5,700 $ 193

2016 Total Proposed $ 4.7 100.0% 23.5% $ 6.1 15,325 $ 401 Pet Value $ 1.7 28.5% 5.0% $ 1.8 1,050 $ 1,743 51.6% Pet Headquarters $ 0.6 9.2% 5.0% $ 0.6 1,302 $ 453 51.6% Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - n/a Debyes Pets $ 0.7 11.0% 5.0% $ 0.7 781 $ 907 51.6% Office Supplies $ 0.3 5.1% 5.0% $ 0.3 1,302 $ 254 51.6% Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.2 3.8% 5.0% $ 0.2 558 $ 434 51.6% The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.2% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 12 51.6% St Vincent De Paul $ 0.7 11.0% 5.0% $ 0.7 1,590 $ 445 51.6% Salvation Army $ 0.4 6.3% 5.0% $ 0.4 530 $ 767 51.6% You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.5% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 214 51.6% Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.4% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 62 51.6% Total Existing $ 3.6 77.0% 26.8% $ 4.9 9,625 $ 514 51.6%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.1 23.0% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,700 $ 211 Total Proposed $ 1.1 23.0% 10.0% $ 1.2 5,700 $ 211

79 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE E-7: MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL STORE IMPACT ANALYSIS continued…

Percent Sales From Market Study Area Share in Sales Per Residents Primary Plus Inflow Square Square Foot Change from ($Millions) (1 Zone(1 Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Footage Levels Base Year

2021 Total Proposed $ 5.1 100.0% 25.7% $ 6.9 15,325 $ 448 Pet Value $ 1.9 27.2% 5.0% $ 2.0 1,050 $ 1,891 64.5% Pet Headquarters $ 0.6 8.8% 5.0% $ 0.6 1,302 $ 491 64.5% Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - n/a Debyes Pets $ 0.7 10.5% 5.0% $ 0.8 781 $ 985 64.5% Office Supplies $ 0.3 4.9% 5.0% $ 0.4 1,302 $ 275 64.5% Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.2 3.6% 5.0% $ 0.3 558 $ 470 64.5% The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.1% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 13 64.5% St Vincent De Paul $ 0.7 10.5% 5.0% $ 0.8 1,590 $ 483 64.5% Salvation Army $ 0.4 6.0% 5.0% $ 0.4 530 $ 832 64.5% You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.4% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 232 64.5% Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.4% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 67 64.5% Total Existing $ 3.8 73.5% 30.1% $ 5.4 9,625 $ 558 64.5%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.4 26.5% 10.0% $ 1.5 5,700 $ 263 Total Proposed $ 1.4 26.5% 10.0% $ 1.5 5,700 $ 263

2026 Total Proposed $ 5.5 100.0% 26.6% $ 7.5 15,325 $ 489 Pet Value $ 2.0 26.7% 5.0% $ 2.1 1,050 $ 2,039 77.4% Pet Headquarters $ 0.7 8.6% 5.0% $ 0.7 1,302 $ 530 77.4% Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - n/a Debyes Pets $ 0.8 10.3% 5.0% $ 0.8 781 $ 1,062 77.4% Office Supplies $ 0.4 4.8% 5.0% $ 0.4 1,302 $ 297 77.4% Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.3 3.5% 5.0% $ 0.3 558 $ 507 77.4% The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.1% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 14 77.4% St Vincent De Paul $ 0.8 10.3% 5.0% $ 0.8 1,590 $ 521 77.4% Salvation Army $ 0.5 5.9% 5.0% $ 0.5 530 $ 898 77.4% You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.4% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 250 77.4% Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.4% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 73 77.4% Total Existing $ 4.0 72.2% 31.4% $ 5.8 9,625 $ 602 77.4%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.5 27.8% 10.0% $ 1.7 5,700 $ 298 Total Proposed $ 1.5 27.8% 10.0% $ 1.7 5,700 $ 298

2031 Total Proposed $ 5.8 100.0% 6.6% $ 6.2 15,325 $ 406 Pet Value $ 1.5 25.5% 5.0% $ 1.6 1,050 $ 1,489 29.5% Pet Headquarters $ 0.5 8.2% 5.0% $ 0.5 1,302 $ 387 29.5% Electronics Plus New Refurbished and Used Items $ - 0.0% 5.0% $ - 781 $ - n/a Debyes Pets $ 0.6 9.9% 5.0% $ 0.6 781 $ 775 29.5% Office Supplies $ 0.3 4.6% 5.0% $ 0.3 1,302 $ 217 29.5% Quality Flowers and Gifts $ 0.2 3.4% 5.0% $ 0.2 558 $ 370 29.5% The Store (Buy Sell Trade) $ 0.0 0.1% 5.0% $ 0.0 837 $ 10 29.5% St Vincent De Paul $ 0.6 9.9% 5.0% $ 0.6 1,590 $ 380 29.5% Salvation Army $ 0.3 5.7% 5.0% $ 0.3 530 $ 655 29.5% You Save Furniture Second Hand $ 0.1 1.3% 5.0% $ 0.1 446 $ 183 29.5% Cellar Guitars $ 0.0 0.4% 5.0% $ 0.0 446 $ 53 29.5% Total Existing $ 4.0 69.1% 5.0% $ 4.2 9,625 $ 439 29.5%

Proposed: Pearson Plaza $ 1.8 31.0% 10.0% $ 2.0 5,700 $ 351 Total Proposed $ 1.8 31.0% 10.0% $ 2.0 5,700 $ 351

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc. 1) Market share is based on the results of our online consumer telephone survey. 2) urbanMetrics estimates.

80 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

APPENDIX G – MARKET DEPTH STORE LIST

After identifying a range of potential retailers in a number of store categories, we determine the likelihood that each retailer would locate in Elliot Lake and classified each store accordingly. Retailers were classified as:

• Likely – the selected retailer already operates chains in smaller markets and has existing locations in Northern Ontario; • Somewhat Likely – the selected retailer only operates a few stores in smaller market and currently have a limited presence in Northern Ontario; and • Minimal Likelihood – the selected retailer doesn’t operate chains in smaller market and does not currently have a presence in Northern Ontario.

Only retailers considered ‘Likely’ and ‘Somewhat Likely’ have been included in our summary of the total market depth for retail/service commercial space in Elliot Lake.

81 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE F-1: LIST OF POTENTIAL RETAILERS

Average Size in Likelihood of Opening a Format/Retail Chain NAICS Description Square Feet Chain in Elliot Lake Becker Milk Convenience Stores 2,210 Likely Mac's Convenience Stores 2,210 Likely Daisy Mart Convenience Stores 2,210 Likely Bulk Barn All Other Specialty Food Stores 4,400 Likely Herbal One Weight Management Centres All Other Specialty Food Stores 2,200 Likely Laura Secord All Other Specialty Food Stores 2,000 Minimal Likelihood Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory All Other Specialty Food Stores 2,000 Minimal Likelihood Market Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 13,230 SQ.FT. Mark's All Other Clothing Stores 8,620 Likely Bentley Luggage and Leather Goods Stores 3,500 Likely Ecco Canada Shoe Stores 2,100 Likely Northern Reflections Women's Clothing Stores 2,470 Likely Ricki's Women's Clothing Stores 3,940 Likely BioPed Shoe Stores 1,800 Likely Tan Jay Women's Clothing Stores 1,510 Somewhat Likely Joe Fresh Family Clothing Stores 2,800 Somewhat Likely Ardene Jewelry Stores 2,900 Somewhat Likely Tootsies Shoe Market Shoe Stores 4,100 Somewhat Likely Becker Shoes Shoe Stores 1,500 Somewhat Likely Payless ShoeSource Shoe Stores 3,200 Somewhat Likely Walking on a Cloud Shoe Stores 1,800 Somewhat Likely SoftMoc Shoe Stores 2,000 Somewhat Likely Smart Set Women's Clothing Stores 3,400 Somewhat Likely Penningtons Women's Clothing Stores 6,000 Somewhat Likely Reitmans Women's Clothing Stores 4,600 Somewhat Likely Alia Women's Clothing Stores 1,400 Somewhat Likely Nygard Store Family Clothing Stores 6,530 Minimal Likelihood Winners Family Clothing Stores 29,000 Minimal Likelihood RW & Co Family Clothing Stores 4,500 Minimal Likelihood Zara Family Clothing Stores 11,970 Minimal Likelihood Old Navy Family Clothing Stores 18,260 Minimal Likelihood Moores The Suit People Men's Clothing Stores 6,310 Minimal Likelihood The Shoe Company Shoe Stores 6,700 Minimal Likelihood Addition-Elle Women's Clothing Stores 6,100 Minimal Likelihood Fairweather Women's Clothing Stores 5,660 Minimal Likelihood Laura Women's Clothing Stores 4,110 Minimal Likelihood Cleo Women's Clothing Stores 4,030 Minimal Likelihood Market Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 56,240 SQ.FT. Home Furniture Furniture Stores 7,500 Likely The Brick Furniture Stores 38,900 Likely EasyHome Furniture Stores 2,800 Likely Living Lighting Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores 4,800 Likely Leon's Furniture Furniture Stores 80,000 Minimal Likelihood Sleep Country Canada Furniture Stores 5,170 Minimal Likelihood EB Games Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores 1,590 Minimal Likelihood Bell Mobility Centre/~Cellular Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores 1,200 Minimal Likelihood HomeSense All Other Home Furnishings Stores 24,000 Minimal Likelihood Market Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 54,000 SQ.FT.

82 Market Demand and Impact Analysis – The City of Elliot Lake, Ontario

FIGURE F-1: LIST OF POTENTIAL RETAILERS continued…

Average Size in Likelihood of Opening a Format/Retail Chain NAICS Description Square Feet Chain in Elliot Lake Wal-Mart Department Stores 116,740 Likely Country Depot All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 2,500 Likely V&S Department Stores/ V&S Options (Stedmans) All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 7,000 Likely The Bargain! Shop All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 12,500 Likely Liquidation World All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 22,000 Likely TSC Stores All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 16,900 Likely Hart All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 25,000 Somewhat Likely Giant Tiger/Tigre Geant All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 26,560 Somewhat Likely Dollarama All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 9,870 Somewhat Likely Buck or Two/Dollar ou Deux All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 5,120 Somewhat Likely Value Village All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 18,800 Somewhat Likely Hallmark Cards All Other Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores 3,900 Minimal Likelihood Market Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 262,990 SQ.FT. Casey’s Bar and Grill Eating and Drinking 5,700 Likely Swiss Chalet Eating and Drinking 4,600 Likely A&W Eating and Drinking 1,700 Likely Pizza Hut Eating and Drinking 4,400 Likely Arby's Eating and Drinking 3,500 Likely Harvey's Eating and Drinking 3,000 Likely Wendy's Eating and Drinking 5,200 Likely Kelsey's Eating and Drinking 4,500 Likely Boston Pizza Eating and Drinking 5,700 Somewhat Likely East Side Mario’s Eating and Drinking 5,000 Somewhat Likely Pita Pit Eating and Drinking 2,100 Somewhat Likely Pizza Pizza Eating and Drinking 2,200 Somewhat Likely Mr. Sub Eating and Drinking 1,000 Somewhat Likely Quiznos Eating and Drinking 1,800 Somewhat Likely Country Style Coffee Eating and Drinking 1,000 Somewhat Likely Burger King Eating and Drinking 3,500 Somewhat Likely Market Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 54,900 SQ.FT. Medichair Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 4,860 Likely Shoppers Home Health Care Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 14,000 Likely Listen Up Canada Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 1,600 Likely Hearing First Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 2,000 Likely Hakim Optical Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 2,000 Likely LensCrafters Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 4,000 Likely Pearle Vision Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 4,000 Likely Market Depth - Square Footage Terms - Likely/Somewhat Likely Only 32,460 SQ.FT.

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.

FIGURE F-2: SUMMARY OF MARKET DEPTH Summary of Market Depth - Additional Square Footage - Elliot Lake

Somewhat Likely/ Somewhat Likely Likely Likely Grocery/Convenience and Specialty Food Stores 11,030 0 11,030 Clothing and Accessory Stores 22,430 35,210 57,640 Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics, Appliances and Computer Stores 54,000 0 54,000 Department Stores 177,640 85,350 262,990 Eating and Drinking 32,600 22,300 54,900 Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores 32,460 0 32,460 Total 330,160 142,860 473,020

SOURCE: urbanMetrics inc.