Exploring Strategic Farming Choices to Respond to Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change

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Exploring Strategic Farming Choices to Respond to Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change Exploring strategic farming choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change Tesis Doctoral Berta Sánchez Fernández Ingeniera Agrónoma Madrid 2015 Exploring strategic farming choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change Tesis Doctoral Berta Sánchez Fernández Ingeniera Agrónoma Directores Ana Iglesias Picazo Dr. Ingeniero Agrónomo Jorge Álvaro-Fuentes Dr. Ingeniero Agrónomo Madrid 2015 Tribunal nombrado por el Sr. Rector Magfco. de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, el día ……… de …………………. de 201… Presidente: ………………………………………………………………………… Vocal: ……………………………………………………………………………… Vocal: ……………………………………………………………………………… Vocal: ……………………………………………………………………………… Secretario: ………………………………………………………………………… Suplente:………………………………………………………………………… Suplente: ………………………………………………………………………… Realizado el acto de defensa y lectura de la Tesis el día …… de …………. de 201… en la E.T.S.I./Facultad ………………………. Calificación …………………………………………. EL PRESIDENTE LOS VOCALES EL SECRETARIO A Narciso y a mis padres José Manuel y Sabina Agradecimientos Durante el proceso de elaboración de esta tesis he recibido el apoyo, la confianza, y los ánimos de muchas personas. A todas ellas se debe este trabajo. Quisiera expresar mi más sincero agradecimiento a mis dos tutores, Ana Iglesias y Jorge Álvaro-Fuentes. Los dos han hecho un equipo perfecto guiándome en mi trabajo y ayudándome a crecer como investigadora. Muchas gracias Ana, por haber confiado en mí desde el principio y brindarme la oportunidad de realizar esta Tesis y participar en numerosos proyectos de investigación, estancias, viajes y aventuras que ya forman parte de mi trayectoria profesional y personal. Gracias por todo lo que he aprendido a tu lado, por tu ayuda y apoyo constante durante todo este tiempo, y por empujarme siempre a superar mis propias expectativas. Muchas gracias Jorge, por todo lo que has aportado a esta tesis, por tu inmensa paciencia y esfuerzo, y por estar siempre dispuesto a ayudarme en lo que sea y cuando sea. A los dos, gracias por tener siempre una palabra y una cara amable para mí y para mi trabajo. También quiero agradecerle sinceramente a John R. Porter por introducirme en el mundo de la investigación, por acogerme en Copenhague como parte de su equipo y por ayudarme siempre que lo necesito. Gracias a los compañeros y amigos durante mi estancia allí, Manuel, Victor, Ghaley, Eskild, y a todo el equipo de Taastrup. Gracias a los proyectos en los que he trabajado con Ana iglesias, EU SmartSOIL y WWF Adaptación en Doñana, por la financiación durante todos estos años para poder realizar esta Tesis doctoral y por la gran experiencia profesional y personal que me han reportado. Gracias a todos los compañeros de ambos proyectos, lo que he aprendido con ellos, las reuniones, las presentaciones, y la experiencia de colaborar con gente de diferentes universidades y países. En especial gracias a Luis Garrote, Vicente Sotés, Celsa Peiteado, Gema Rodriguez, Nuria Hernandez-Mora, Lucía De Stefano, Felipe Medina, Jorgen Olesen, Jan Peter Lessen, Peter Kuikman, Kirsten Schelde, Julie Ingram, Jane Mills, Alistair NcVittie, Klaus Glenk, Shailesh Shrestha, John R. Porter, Pete Smith, Marco Bindi, Paulo Merante, Camilla Dibari, Sandra Nauman, Beth Dooley, Antonia Andugar, Bhim Bahadur Ghaley y todos los demás. i Gracias a todas las personas que han participado y ayudado en esta investigación. Especialmente a la Red REMEDIA, a los agricultores de la Cooperativa Agraria Virgen de la Corona, de la Asociación Aragonesa de Conservación Agracon y de la Asociación Vallisoletana de Conservación AVAC, a la empresa de olivar ecológico Oro del Desierto, a María José Alonso de la Oficina Española de Cambio Climático (OECC), a Pablo Resco de COAG y a todos los demás, muchas gracias. Gracias al Departamento de Economía y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias por todo lo aprendido durante estos años, especialmente a la directora Isabel Bardají, a Consuelo Varela y a todos los profesores del Máster de Economía Agraria. Gracias a las coordinadoras del Programa de Doctorado TAPAS por su ayuda y especialmente a Carmen Dieguez. Gracias al CEIGRAM, a su directora Inés Mínguez y ex director, Alberto Garrido por acogerme tan bien desde el primer día que llegué y hacer que sea un lugar de trabajo ideal. Gracias a Katerina por ser tan eficiente y solucionarme siempre todo lo que la pido y más, y a Begoña y a Esperanza por facilitarnos tanto las cosas. Gracias a las tres por tener siempre una sonrisa mientras tanto. Muchas gracias a todos mis compañeros y amigos del CEIGRAM. A los mejores compañeros de buhardilla con los que he compartido tan buenos momentos: Ruth, Fran, Irene, Paloma, Gema, Silvestre, Jorge, Nacho, Tamara y Buxter. A mis chicas del tea time que siempre me hacen reír y sentir mejor: Ruth otra vez, Lala, Paula, Marina G Barbara W y Barbara S. A la pequeña gran familia de CEIGRAM: Ana F, Teresa, Axel, Marina M, Jhenny, Elena, Esperanza A, Dani, Gloria, Cristian O, Sol, Christian, Rhys, Lucian, Pilar, Insa, Marta y todos los demás. Hacer esta Tesis hubiera sido muchísimo más difícil sin vuestro apoyo y ánimos. Muchas gracias también a todas mis amigas y amigos, por animarme durante todo el proceso y apoyarme siempre en todo. En especial, quiero agradecer a mi familia por su apoyo incondicional en el desarrollo de esta Tesis y en todas las facetas de mi vida. A Narciso, mi gran amor, que me hace tan feliz cada día, y me ayuda a conseguir todas mis metas y a superar todos los obstáculos. A mi madre Sabina, a mi hermana Ruth y a mi sobrino Jorge por estar siempre a mi lado. A mi padre, porque siempre le llevo en el corazón y me da fuerzas para seguir avanzando. ii Summary Alterations in the climatic system due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are expected to have important implications for agriculture, the environment and society. Agriculture is an important source of GHG emissions (12 % of global anthropogenic GHG), but it is also part of the solution to mitigate emissions and to adapt to climate change. Responses to face the challenge of climate change should place agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies at the heart of the climate change agenda. Agriculture is crucial for the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, which already stand under pressure due to climate change impacts, increased population, pollution and fragmented and uncoordinated climate policy strategies. The concept of climate smart agriculture has emerged to encompass all these issues as a whole. When assessing choices aimed at reducing threats to agriculture and the environment under climate change, two research questions arise: What information defines smart farming choices? What drives the implementation of smart farming choices? This Thesis aims to provide information on these broad questions in order to support climate policy development focusing in some Mediterranean agricultural systems. This Thesis integrates methods and tools to evaluate potential farming and policy choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The assessment involves both quantitative and qualitative approaches and integrates agronomic, climate and socioeconomic variables at local and regional scale. The assessment includes the collection of data on previous experimental evidence, and the integration of farmer behaviour and policy choices (e.g., technology, agricultural management and climate policy). The case study areas -- the Doñana coastal wetland (S Spain) and the Aragón region (NE Spain) – illustrate two representative Mediterranean regions where the intensive use of agriculture and the semi-arid conditions are already a concern. Thus the adoption of mitigation and adaptation measures can play a significant role for reaching a balance among equity, economic security and the environment under climate change scenarios. iii The multidisciplinary methodology of this Thesis includes a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The data collection process include revision of existing experimental evidence, public databases and the contribution of primary data gathering by semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders (i.e., public administrations, policy makers, agricultural advisors, scientist and farmers among others) and surveys given to farmers. The analytical methods include meta-analysis, water availability models (WAAPA model), decision making analysis (MCA, multi- criteria analysis), statistical approaches (Logistic and Poisson regression models) and science-base policy tools (MACC, marginal abatement cost curves and SOC abatement wedges). The meta-analysis identifies the critical temperature thresholds which impact on the growth and development of three major crops (i.e., rice, maize and wheat). The WAAPA model assesses the effect of climate change for agricultural water management under different policy choices and climate scenarios. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates the feasibility of mitigation farming practices under two climate scenarios according to the expert views. The statistical approaches analyses the drivers and the barriers for the adoption of mitigation farming practices. The science-base policy tools illustrate the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of the farming practices. Overall, the results of this Thesis provide information to adapt to, and mitigate of, climate change at farm level to support the development of a comprehensive climate policy and to assist farmers. The findings show the
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