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Agricultural Insurance Policies in Spain and The

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Agricultural Insurance Policies in Spain and The Departamento de Economía agraria, Estadística y Gestión de empresas Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Agricultural insurance policies in Spain and the EU: An analysis of existent and new risk management tools focusing on indirect risk assessment, and asymmetric information TESIS DOCTORAL Alba CASTAÑEDA VERA Ingeniera Agrónoma MSc Plant Sciences Master en Tecnología Agroambiental para una Agricultura Sostenible Madrid 2016 Departamento de Economía agraria, Estadística y Gestión de empresas Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Agricultural insurance policies in Spain and the EU: An analysis of existent and new risk management tools focusing on indirect risk assessment, and asymmetric information Memoria presentada por Alba CASTAÑEDA VERA Para la obtención del grado de Doctor por la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Directores: Dr. Alberto Garrido Colmenero, Doctor Ingeniero Agrónomo Dra. Mª Inés Mínguez Tudela, Doctora Ingeniera Agrónomo Tribunal nombrado por el Magfco y Excmo. Sr. Rector de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, el día ___________. Presidente: Vocal: Vocal: Vocal: Secretario: Suplente: Suplente: Realizado el acto de defensa y la lectura de la tesis el día ___________ en la E.T.S. de Ingenieros Agrónomos de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. CALIFICACIÓN: EL PRESIDENTE LOS VOCALES EL SECRETARIO ALBERTO GARRIDO COLMENERO, catedrático del departamento de Economía agraria, Estadística y Gestión de empresas, e Mª INÉS MÍNGUEZ TUDELA, catedrática del departamento de Producción Agraria, ambos de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid CERTIFICAN Que el trabajo presentado por ALBA CASTAÑEDA VERA, Ingeniera Agrónoma por la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, constituye un trabajo original de investigación y que ha sido realizado bajo nuestra dirección. Puesto que el mismo cumple con la normativa vigente en materia de Doctorado, autorizaos su presentación. Madrid, de de 2016 Fdo. Alberto Garrido Colmenero Mª Inés Mínguez Tudela SUMMARY A sustainable agricultural insurance system provides benefits to both insurers and insured agents. Equilibrium in the loss ratio and risk pooling are fundamental to guarantee such sustainability. Achieving equilibrium in the loss ratio requires accurate risk estimation. An agricultural insurance risk pool is a concurrence of producers whose different production risks in time and space are combined. Pooling risks together allows the losses of the producers registering claims in a certain year and a certain area to be offset by total premiums paid by producers participating in the system either registering claims or not. Agricultural insurance faces a number of market imperfections that end up in market failures, compromising loss ratio equilibrium and risk pooling. Common imperfections are information failure, asymmetric information and low insurance demand. This Thesis evaluates different aspects that hinder risk setting and that constitute disincentives to crop insurance demand in order to contribute with new insights that could make insurance systems more sustainable. First, we address a central issue in agricultural risk assessment, the availability of data. For that, we adapted methodologies, some of them commonly implemented in other scientific and technical spheres, to be applied in crop insurance. In particular, we evaluate the opportunities for using index insurances, crop models and yield gap analysis. We conclude that the use of insurance historical data rather than using indirect methods is preferred to evaluate and calibrate insurance parameters when available. However, historical data may be insufficient to establish the real risk the insurance is covering. Then, the use of weather indexes or more complex crop models is useful to design new insurance packages or coverage. Weather indexes and crop models should be used with caution as the time and spatial dependence of the risk influences the scale at which models might have validity. The common lack of observed data seriously hinders testing simulation models and thus constitutes an important source of uncertainty. The higher the complexity of the cropping system, the harder it becomes the use of indirect methods for crop risk assessment. Second, we evaluated the relative efficiency of alternative risk management instruments in enhancing and stabilizing farm revenue and the effectiveness of public support. Results reveal that direct payments and crop diversification are the most effective measures in decreasing income variability. Moreover, despite crop diversification does not requiring any ix direct public support, it provides a significant decrease in income variability. Incentives to contracting protection tools are a good compromise for both improving farm resilience to yield and price variability and to restrain public expenditure, especially when used complementarily with direct payments and/or diversification. Lastly, we conclude that farmers’ utility of contracting insurance is related not only to risk but also to its profitability. Lastly, we study factors that influence to crop insurance demand. For that, the concept of yield gap was useful to build evidence about asymmetric information and to evaluate the relationships between insurance parameters and insurance demand. Results suggest that the accuracy in setting the insured yield is decisive in farmers’ willingness to contract crop insurance, even more than premium subsidies. We propose that the development of new risk management tools based on mutual funds may potentially decrease insurance demand, decreasing the pool and compromising the system’s sustainability. Alternatively, we propose evaluating the possibilities for extending coverture to farmers’ revenue in order to keep or even increase risk pool is a sole and more efficient tool. x RESUMEN Un sistema de seguros agrarios sostenible es beneficioso tanto para los aseguradores como para los asegurados. El equilibrio en el ratio de pérdidas y la agrupación de los riesgos son fundamentales para garantizar dicha sostenibilidad. Para alcanzar un equilibrio en el ratio de pérdidas es necesario poder estimar el riesgo de forma precisa. La agrupación de riesgos en el seguro agrario supone la concurrencia de productores cuyos riesgos de producción se combinan en tiempo y espacio permitiendo así que las indemnizaciones por pérdidas de unos productores en un determinado año y una determinada zona se compensen con el total de las primas pagadas por parte de todos los productores que participan en el sistema. Sin embargo, el seguro agrario se enfrenta a una serie de imperfecciones que comprometen esa sostenibilidad, entre ellas la falta de información, la información asimétrica y una baja demanda del seguro. Esta tesis aborda estos aspectos con el objetivo de mejorar el conocimiento del sistema y alcanzar así sistemas de seguros más sostenibles. El contexto empírico de la tesis incluye dos sistemas productivos tradicionales de la Península Ibérica, el tomate de industria (cultivo hortícola de regadío) en la cuenca extremeña del Guadiana y el trigo de invierno (cereal de secano) en Castilla y León. En primer lugar, se aborda un aspecto central en la estimación del riesgo agrario, la disponibilidad de datos. Para ello, se adaptan metodologías, algunas de ellas usadas habitualmente en otras esferas científicas y técnicas, para su implementación en el seguro de agrario. Concretamente, se analiza la implementación de seguros indexados, modelos de cultivo y el análisis de brechas de rendimientos. La tesis concluye al respecto que el uso de datos históricos del seguro siempre es preferible al uso de métodos indirectos para evaluar y calibrar parámetros de seguro, siempre que estos estén disponibles. Sin embargo, en ocasiones los datos históricos son inexistentes o insuficientes para establecer el riesgo real. Es en estos casos en los que el uso de índices climáticos sencillos o modelos de cultivo más complejos es útil para diseñar nuevas coberturas y líneas de seguros. En cualquier caso, estos métodos han de usarse con cautela, ya que la dependencia espacial y temporal del riesgo influye en la escala a la que estas estimaciones tienen validez. La habitual falta de datos observados, dificulta en gran medida la validación de los modelos, constituyendo una fuente de incertidumbre importante. Los resultados muestran cómo cuanto más complejo es el sistema de cultivo mayores dificultades se encuentran a la hora de implementar métodos para la estimación indirecta del riesgo. xi En segundo lugar, se evalúa la eficiencia relativa de instrumentos alternativos de gestión del riesgo en la mejora y la estabilización de la renta de los productores y la eficacia del gasto público. Los resultados revelan que los pagos directos y la diversificación de cultivos son las medidas más eficaces para disminuir la variabilidad de la renta. Además, aunque la diversificación de cultivos no requiere ningún apoyo público directo, esta supone una disminución significativa de esa variabilidad. Los incentivos para contratar instrumentos de protección influyen positivamente tanto en la mejora de la resiliencia de la renta de las explotaciones a la variabilidad de rendimientos y precios como en la contención del gasto público, especialmente cuando se usan de forma complementaria junto con pagos directos y/o diversificación. Por último, la tesis concluye que la utilidad de los productores a la hora de contratar un seguro no es función únicamente del riesgo, sino
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