energies

Article Electricity Generation in : Present State, Future Outlook and Policy Implications

Lari Shanlang Tiewsoh 1, Jakub Jirásek 2,* and Martin Sivek 1

1 Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Geology, VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 15/2172, 708 00 Ostrava-Poruba, Czech Republic; [email protected] (L.S.T.); [email protected] (M.S.) 2 ENET Centre, VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 15/2172, 708 00 Ostrava-Poruba, Czech Republic * Correspondence: [email protected]

 Received: 18 February 2019; Accepted: 30 March 2019; Published: 9 April 2019 

Abstract: one of the fastest developing countries in the world. To sustain this growth, energy and electricity demands will increase. In 2015, of the 1337 TWh produced, 916 TWh were from fossil fuels. We prepared several models of electricity demand from 2015 to 2030, based on publicly available datasets and trends. Models were tested on data from previous years and adjusted accordingly. From several scenarios, we decided to introduce two possibilities, i.e., a scenario using high energy savings in all sectors, and a scenario counting on a high industrial growth not supported by an equal increase of electricity savings. For both cases we prepared models for extreme situations: (1) where coal- and lignite-based power plants are preferred after slow-down of a boom, and (2) with high utilization of renewable energy supported by natural gas and nuclear energy. With GDP and population increasing at the same rate as in previous years, the unambiguous result in all scenarios is a 2 to 3-fold increase of the electricity demand by 2030. On the electricity production side, all scenarios stress the role of coal, renewables and nuclear sources. Both energy and climate policies should be prepared for such a development in advance.

Keywords: India; electricity; energy policy; sustainable development

1. Introduction Electricity infrastructure and production are important for a developing economy like that of India, which with a population of 1.2 billion and an area of 3.29 million km2, is the 7th largest country in the world. With a GDP of US$ 2.3 trillion in 2015 and an average GDP growth of 7% per year [1], the growth of the electricity sector will be important to sustain the economic output of the country. Total electricity generation in India during 2015 was 1300 TWh from both utilities and non-utilities [2]. In 2013, the electricity consumption from all sectors was 824 TWh [3], and with an average growth rate of 9%, and it was estimated to be approximately 980 TWh in 2015. The electrical network suffers from transmission losses of approximately 25%. In 2015, per capita electricity consumption was 746 kWh [2]. Since per capita electricity consumption has a positive relation with GDP per capita (e.g., [4–6]), it can be used as a standard for judging the stage of economic development. Most countries with a GDP per capita of more than US$ 10,000 have an electricity consumption of more than 4500 kWh per capita [7,8]. There are few exceptions to this case, depending on the structure of the economy in that country [9]. It can be expected that with the growth of the Indian economy, the GDP per capita will improve, and hence, there will be a need for more electricity in the future.

Energies 2019, 12, 1361; doi:10.3390/en12071361 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Energies 2019, 12, 1361 2 of 14

In this regard, forecasting the electricity demand is vital, as it can help the decision makers to keep up with the pace of the growing demands of the economy and to reduce power outages.

The long-rangeEnergies 2019, 12 energy, x FOR PEER alternative REVIEW planning, referred to as LEAP [10], is a tool that is used2 to of forecast 14 energy demand and supply from various scenarios and can also be used for climate change mitigation assessmentlong-range (see energy electronic alternative Supplemetary planning,Materials). referred to as LEAP LEAP has [10], been is a used tool forthatthe is used Indian to forecast scenario for differentenergy cases demand and and levels. supply Kale from and various Pohekar scenarios [11] studiedand can also the be demand used for and climate supply change scenarios mitigation for the stateassessment. of , LEAP while has been the Indo-Germanused for the Indian Centre scenario for Sustainability for different published cases and a levels. document Kale thatand used Pohekar [11] studied the demand and supply scenarios for the state of Maharashtra, while the Indo- LEAP for studying the greenhouse emissions of the country. LEAP was also used in other countries German Centre for Sustainability published a document that used LEAP for studying the greenhouse such as Panama where investigators applied LEAP to promote to the Panama electricity emissions of the country. LEAP was also used in other countries such as Panama where investigators mix [applied12]. Additionally, LEAP to promote in Taiwan, wind power LEAP to was the utilized Panama toelectricity study the mix energy [12]. Additionally, scenario where in Taiwan, its energy requirementsLEAP was are utilized met mostly to study by the imports energy [ 13scenario]. where its energy requirements are met mostly by Thisimports study [13]. will focus on the electricity supply and demand in India. Access to the electricity, which wasThis 84.5% study inwill 2016 focus [14 on], the is notelectricity only asupply social, and but demand also a in political India. Access problem. to the Foreseenelectricity, 100% electrificationwhich was (demand 84.5% in side)2016 will[14], increaseis not only the a stresssocial, onbut the also supply a political chain. problem. It is not Foreseen clear whether 100% the Indianelectrification government (demand will prefer side) will an increase increase ofthe domestic stress on the energy/electricity supply chain. It is sources, not clear whichwhether would the be the mostIndian preferred government electricity will prefer mix, an increase and how of thatdomestic will energy/electricity comply with recent sources, developments which would andbe the policy most preferred electricity mix, and how that will comply with recent developments and policy initiatives for climate change mitigation. In our study, we would like to bring attention to such crucial initiatives for climate change mitigation. In our study, we would like to bring attention to such crucial questions. By set of future electricity generation mix models we have tried to show outline of possible questions. By set of future electricity generation mix models we have tried to show outline of possible futurefuture developments developments and and basic basic problems problems they they mightmight bring.

2. Electricity2. Electricity Generation generation in in India India ElectricityElectricity production production in in India India is is mostly mostly achievedachieved through through coal coal thermal thermal power power plants plants (Figure (Figure 1). 1). AlthoughAlthough there there have have been been efforts efforts to diversify to diversify the options,the options, particularly particularly in the in casethe case of renewable of renewable energies, coal remainsenergies, thecoal dominantremains the source dominant of electricity source of elec in thetricity country. in the country. Since 2000, Since the 2000, share the ofshare electricity of productionelectricity from production coal has from been coal slowly has been increasing; slowly increasing; it was 68% it was at the68% start at the of start the of millennium the millennium and has increasedand has to 73%increased in 2013. to The73% percentualin 2013. The shares percentual of all othershares energy of all sources,other energy except sources, renewables, except have renewables, have decreased during that time, [14]. decreased during that time, [14]. In 2015, India generated a total of 1078 TWh from coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear and hydropower In 2015, India generated a total of 1078 TWh from coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear and hydropower sources [2]. Renewable and alternative electricity in the form of solar, wind, and small sourceshydropower [2]. Renewable (less than and 25 MW) alternative plants are electricity also making in big the progress. form of These solar, types wind, of electricity biomass source and small hydropowerwere estimated (less than to generate 25 MW) approximately plants are also 70 TWh making of electricity big progress. in 2015. These Non-utilities types ofor electricityindependent source werepower estimated producers to generate have also approximately been growing 70at a TWh rate of 9% electricity over the inyears 2015. [3], Non-utilities and it was estimated or independent that powerthey producers produced have approximately also been 185 growing TWh in at 2015. a rate India of9% also over imported the years some [ 3electricity], and it wasfrom estimatedBhutan in that they produced2015 (5 TWh) approximately to satisfy its demand. 185 TWh in 2015. India also imported some electricity from Bhutan in 2015 (5 TWh) to satisfy its demand.

Figure 1. Electricity production in India from different sources [14]. Figure 1. Electricity production in India from different sources [14].

Energies 2019, 12, 1361 3 of 14

Energies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 14 As mentioned, the bulk of the production comes from coal power plants that produced 840 TWh Figure 1. Electricity production in India from different sources [14]. in 2015 (Figure2), which is 63% of the total production, followed by non-utilities (185 TWh) and hydropowerAs mentioned, (125 TWh, the excluding bulk of the small production hydro). Nuclear,comes from natural coal power gas, lignite plants and that oil produced also contributed 840 38 TWh,TWh 44 in TWh,2015 (Figure 34 TWh 2), and which 500 is GWh, 63% respectively,of the total production, to electricity followed generation. by non-utilities Renewable (185 sources TWh) were estimatedand hydropower to contribute (125 to TWh, 70 TWh excluding of electricity small hydro). in 2015. Nuclear, Currently, natural most gas, of thelignite renewable and oil electricityalso generationcontributed is from 38 windTWh, energy44 TWh, (e.g., 34[ 15TWh–18 ])and and 500 small GW hydropowerh, respectively, plants to electricity (e.g., [19, 20generation.]). India is also keenRenewable on developing sources its were renewable estimated sources to contribute (e.g., [21 to– 7029 TWh]). of electricity in 2015. Currently, most of the renewable electricity generation is from wind energy (e.g., [15–18]) and small hydropower plants In India, coal satisfies 70% of the total demand that is mostly used in the power sector [30], and (e.g., [19,20]). India is also keen on developing its renewable sources (e.g., [21–29]). with IndiaIn havingIndia, coal the satisfies 5th largest 70% of coal the reserves total demand in the that world, is mostly it has used proven in the topower be the sector most [30], economical and formwith of energy India having and electricity the 5th largest in India. coal reserves Considering in the world, an increase it has proven in coal to production be the most ofeconomical 5% each year, the coalform reserves of energy are and expected electricity to in last India. for Considering another 40–50 an increase years [31 in]. coal The production World Institute of 5% each of Sustainable year, Energythe preparedcoal reserves a research are expected report to last for for coal another electricity 40–50 in years India [31]. and The predicted World Institute that the of totalSustainable coal power plantEnergy capacity prepared by the a end research of 2032 report would for coal be 400 electric TWity if coal-basedin India andpower predicted plants that arethe favoredtotal coalor power 220 TW if renewableplant capacity energy by and the gas end are of 2032 favored would [31 be]. 400 TW if coal-based power plants are favored or 220 TW if renewable energy and gas are favored [31].

FigureFigure 2. 2. ElectricityElectricity mix mix in in India India 2015 2015 [2]. [ 2].

However,However, the the oil oil supply supply situationsituation is is not not so sofavora favorable.ble. At the At current the current levels of levels production, of production, the the domesticdomestic oil sources will will last last for for another another 23 23 years. years. However, However, the theelectricity electricity structure structure as discussed as discussed doesdoes not heavilynot heavily depend depend on on oil. oil. The The shareshare for natural gas, gas, however, however, has has been been slowly slowly increasing increasing over over the yearsthe years due due to theto the discovery discovery of of new new gasgas fields,fields, the the incorporation incorporation of ofcoal coal bed bed methane methane (CBM) (CBM) and and government interest in the exploration and production of CBM [32]. government interest in the exploration and production of CBM [32]. Uranium ores are of very low quality in India (average grade as low as 0.1%), which makes Uranium ores are of very low quality in India (average grade as low as 0.1%), which makes production and extraction of indigenous ores 2–3 times more costly compared to international productionsupplies and[31]. extractionThe import ofof uranium, indigenous however, ores 2–3is not times an easy more task costly because compared international to internationaltrade is suppliesgoverned [31]. by The the guidelines import of of uranium, the nuclear however, suppliers group is not (NSG), an easy and task the guidelines because internationaldid not permit trade is governedthe sale of by uranium the guidelines to India. of However, the nuclear because suppliers of policy group initiatives (NSG), from and India, the guidelinesNSG guidelines did notwere permit the salerelaxed of uranium in 2008 [33]. to India.As a result, However, India has because imported of policy uranium initiatives and used from it to India,fuel their NSG nuclear guidelines power were relaxedplants in 2008and this [33]. in As turn a result, improved India the has capacity imported factors uranium of the and power used plants it to fuel[34,35]. their Despite nuclear the power plantsdifficulties and this with in turn low improved quality local the supplies, capacity India factors is ofpromoting the power the plants use of [nuclear34,35]. Despiteenergy for the energy difficulties withsecurity low quality as well local as envi supplies,ronmental India benefits is promoting [36]. the use of nuclear energy for energy security as India is also focusing greatly on renewable energy. It was estimated that India can produce up well as environmental benefits [36]. to an 84,000 MW capacity for hydroelectricity at 60% load factors. The government also plans to India is also focusing greatly on renewable energy. It was estimated that India can produce up accelerate a hydro development plan, where it aims to build 50,000 MW of new capacity by 2026 to an(roughly 84,000 the MW end capacity of the 14th for Five-Year hydroelectricity Plan), which at 60%is mostly load concentrated factors. The in the government southern part also of the plans to acceleratecountry a [31]. hydro A “Solar development Alliance” plan,was also where announce it aimsd at to the build Climate 50,000 Summit MW meeting of new in capacity Paris 2015, by 2026 (roughlywhich the aims end to ofexpand the 14th its renewabl Five-Yeare generating Plan), which capacity is mostly to 175 concentrated GW by 2022. inAs thethe southernname suggests, part of the country [31]. A “Solar Alliance” was also announced at the Climate Summit meeting in Paris 2015, which aims to expand its renewable generating capacity to 175 GW by 2022. As the name suggests, India will develop its and plans to have 100 GW capacities by 2022. The remainder of the Energies 2019, 12, 1361 4 of 14

Energies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 14 capacity would be distributed among wind, biomass and small hydropower plants [36,37] (NRDC, 2016; NationalIndia will ActiondevelopPlan its solar on Climateenergy and Change, plans to 2008). have 100 GW capacities by 2022. The remainder of the capacity would be distributed among wind, biomass and small hydropower plants [36,37] 3. Electricity(NRDC, Demand2016; National in India Action Plan on Climate Change, 2008).

India’s3. Electricity electricity Demand consumption in India was 980 TWh in 2015 [2] and has been increasing at an average rate of 8.84%India’s [3]. electricity Electricity consumption consumption was is 980 highest TWh in in 2015 the industrial[2] and has sectorbeen increasing (Figure3 ),at whichan average in 2015, was estimatedrate of 8.84% to consume[3]. Electricity 450 consumption TWh (46%) andis highest shows in thethe industrial highest growth sector (Figure in electricity 3), which consumption in 2015, (11%).was Some estimated of the mostto consume important 450 TWh industries (46%) and for theshows Indian the highest economy growth are thein electricity steel industry; consumption aluminum industry;(11%). cement Some industry;of the most important industry; industries pulp for andthe Indian paper industry;economy are fertilizer the steel industry; industry; micro, smallaluminum and medium industry; enterprises cement andindustry; other petroleum industries industry; (they are pulp listed and as paper important industry; because fertilizer each of themindustry; have their micro, own small ministry). and medium Crude steelenterprises production and other in India industries in 2015 (they was are 89 listed million as tonsimportant [38], and therebecause has been each a gradual of them trend have inthei decreasingr own ministry). energy Crude intensity steel perproduction ton of crude in India steel in produced.2015 was 89 From million tons [38], and there has been a gradual trend in decreasing energy intensity per ton of crude an average of 6.3 GCal (26.36 TJ) in 2013, the strategic goal is 4.5 GCal (18.83 TJ) per metric ton of steel produced. From an average of 6.3 GCal (26.36 TJ) in 2013, the strategic goal is 4.5 GCal (18.83 TJ) crude steel by 2025-26 [39]. The aluminum production in India was 2.36 million tons [40], and the per metric ton of crude steel by 2025-26 [39]. The aluminum production in India was 2.36 million electricitytons [40], intensity and the per electricity ton produced intensity was per estimatedton produced to was be approximatelyestimated to be approximately 14,000–17,000 14000– kWh [41]. Cement17000 production kWh [41]. in Cement India wasproduction 300 million in India tons was in 2015300 million [42], and tons the in electricity2015 [42], and intensity the electricity per ton was 80 kWhintensity [41]. per ton was 80 kWh [41].

FigureFigure 3. Electricity 3. Electricity production productionand and consumptionconsumption in in India India in in2015. 2015.

The petroleumThe petroleum industry industry is oneis one of of the the largest largest industriesindustries in in India, India, producing producing 221 221 million million tons tonsof of variousvarious petroleum petroleum products products [43 [43].]. India’s India’s oil oil refining refining capacitycapacity is is 5th 5th in in the the world world behind behind the theUnited United States of America, China, Russia and Japan. India’s specific energy consumption per ton of States of America, China, Russia and Japan. India’s specific energy consumption per ton of production production is also improving from 76.4 MBTU/BBL in 2006 to 70.7 MBTU/BBL in 2008 [44]. The pulp is also improving from 76.4 MBTU/BBL in 2006 to 70.7 MBTU/BBL in 2008 [44]. The pulp and paper and paper production in India was approximately 7 million tons in 2010 and is showing a growth productionrate of in 8.1%. India Most was of approximately the energy used 7 million in this tons industry in 2010 is andin the isshowing form of aprocess growth heat, rate and of 8.1%. Most ofapproximately the energy used25% of in the this power industry comes is from in the electricity. form of processElectricity heat, consumption and approximately varies from 25% 1200– of the power2200 comes kWh/ton from of electricity. paper [41]. Electricity Fertilizer consumptionproduction in India varies was from 32.5 1200–2200 million tons kWh/ton in 2013 of[45]. paper This [41]. Fertilizerindustry production is an energy-efficient in India was sector 32.5 consuming million tons approximately in 2013 [45 ].29 This GJ/Mt industry owing to is the an best energy-efficient practices sector consuming approximately 29 GJ/Mt owing to the best practices adopted in gas-based plants [41]. Approximately 80% of the energy used was in the form of natural gas and crude oil [46]. Energies 2019, 12, 1361 5 of 14

Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) form the backbone of the Indian manufacturing economy, contributing to approximately 8.7% of the GDP. These enterprises account for 45% of the manufacturing output and 40% of exports. The independent nature of this sector makes it free from outside control and decision making. The energy consumed by this sector was estimated to be ca. 275 TJ based on a survey of 43 enterprises [41]. In 2015, the domestic sector was estimated to consume 213 TWh [3] and is currently the 2nd highest consumer. This is to be expected with India’s high population. In 2011, there were a total of 240 million households in India in the domestic sector, of which 67% are in the rural sector. There has been a larger increase in households in the urban sector compared to the rural sector, which can be attributed to rapid urbanization and people moving from rural areas to urban areas [47]. In 2011, 55% of rural households were electrified compared to 93% of households in the urban sector. Therefore, is makes no sense to compare India with elasticities of electricity demand of developed countries such as U.S. [48,49], G7 countries [50] or Australia [51]. These data indicate that there is still a large portion of the population without access to electricity, especially in rural areas. With India adopting rural electrification programs such as the “Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana” [52], which aims to achieve a 100% electrification rate for rural areas, the electricity consumption from the domestic sector would increase solely due to the fact that new household are being electrified. However, the consumption of electricity from this sector depends on the income level of the residents [53]. Higher income residents would have more amenities, such as televisions, computers, and refrigerators, which would result in more electricity consumption. Such trends were reported from other rapidly growing developing countries, such as Taiwan [54], Turkey [55], or Greece [56]. NSS 68th Round (July 2011–June 2012) made a nationwide survey of amenities used by different household across all the states and reported the findings [57]. As expected, the urban population had more access to modern conveniences, such as televisions. In a report by the Global Buildings Performance Network [58], the annual electricity consumption per household will increase to 2750 kWh by 2050. It was also reported that consumption can be reduced by more than half with the help of better data, policy roadmaps and a residential building energy code [58]. The agriculture sector was estimated to consume 167 TWh in 2015 and is the 3rd highest consumer with a 17% share [3]. India has 125 million hectares of land used for agriculture [59], and approximately 50% of the land is irrigated. Since 1991, the land use for agriculture remained roughly the same, while electricity consumption increased over the same period. This increase may be due to the increasing use of irrigation over agricultural lands to provide better yields (which has improved almost 2-fold per hectare since 1991). In 2015, the commercial sector was estimated to consume 86 TWh of electricity. This sector is the 4th highest consumer (9%), but the electricity consumption in this sector is increasing at a higher rate (8.82%) compared to those of the domestic (7.89%) and agricultural (6.59%) sectors [3]. Total commercial floor space was estimated to be 660 million square meters in 2010 [60] and is experiencing an average growth of 5% every year. The commercial sector ranges from wholesale trade to public administrative buildings to buildings used for education and hospitals. USAID ECO-III Project [60] also estimated the electricity intensity per square meter for every sector under the commercial category. The railways sector was estimated to consume 15.5 TWh in 2015 [3]. In 2012, passenger kilometers travelled were 1000 billion km, while freight traffic was 975 million km. Out of this, 50% was through electrified trains (both goods and passenger trains) [61]. Finally, the remainder of electricity consumption was from other unorganized sectors, and it was estimated that they consumed 46 TWh in 2015 [3] and have an average annual growth of 4.75%.

4. Methodology: LEAP Modelling For the demand of electricity, the LEAP model was divided into: Industrial sector, Domestic sector, Agricultural sector, Commercial sector and others (see electronic Supplemetary Materials). For each sector, the electricity demand was measured using data related to their sector and supported Energies 2019, 12, 1361 6 of 14 by external variables like GDP and population. For the industrial sector, electricity demand was measured by using their production rates and the electricity/energy intensity per ton of material produced. For domestic sector, the electricity demand was measured from number of households and electricity consumption per house (using data from National Sample Office [57]). For agriculture, we took the historical trend of increasing electricity consumption in this sector and for commercial sector, we took data from ECO-III [60] to make projections in commercial floor spaces in India and using the electricity intensity per sq. m, we measured the electricity demand for this sector (section Electricity demand in India). For the transformation and generation side, losses were incorporated into the model as well as the electricity-generating plants in India, namely, Coal Lignite, etc. External factors such as the GDP and population that are needed for LEAP calculations were assumed to increase at a rate of 8% and 1.3%, respectively. International Monetary Fund expects GDP growth 7.5% and 7.7% in financial years 2020 and 2021 [62], 7.8% up to 2020 according to PwC [63]. Longer-time economic forecasts are considered to be problematic [64]. Indian population growth figures range significantly according to various sources—from 1.1% [65] per 1.17% [66] to 1.62% [67]. The steel, aluminum, cement, petroleum, pulp and paper and fertilizer industry growth rates were all based on historical rates, and their respective electricity consumption was based on kWh per ton of production. The information for kWh per ton of production was discussed earlier. The MSME sector was assumed to grow as fast as the economy (8.72% of the GDP). Domestic households were projected to increase as much as the population (Elasticity = 1), and the rural share of households was expected to be approximately 50% by the end of 2030. Electricity consumption at the domestic level depends on the extent of electrification of households and possession of amenities. In 2015, electrified houses in the rural sector were approximately 70% and the percentage in the urban sector was assumed to be 100%. Access to household appliances depends on the income level of the household (or for simplification GDP per capita), and the average electricity usage from these appliances provides the total domestic consumption of electricity. According to the National Sample Office [57], the data was broken down into individual states with urban and rural populations. In the scenarios, it is assumed that 100% electrification rate would be possible by 2022. Commercial floor space was projected to increase at an annual rate of 5% [60]. Electricity consumption was calculated by kWh used per square meter of the commercial space. Most of the data used for this exercise came from the USAID ECO-III Project [60] estimates for commercial spaces and electricity usage. The total land use for agriculture was not expected to rise or fall (general historical trend), but the land under irrigation and the electricity usage per hectare of land has been slowly increasing. Going with the historical trend, the electricity per hectare of land used is expected to increase at 5% annually. The total usage in the transportation sector increases with the GDP, while the percentage of electrified vehicles is assumed to increase to 75% of the total km travelled. Growth from other sectors was assumed to grow at 7% (historical rates). There are several scenarios set. One is a conventional scenario where coal- and lignite-based power plants have the most preferences, whereas another is a renewable scenario where renewable energy and nuclear energy are preferred. From the point of view of demand, the model is set up to check the effects of how investments are used. Whether investments are used to expand the capacity of industrial output thereby increasing the production from industry or whether they are used for the research and development of energy-saving solutions. From the domestic and commercial side, the adoption of more ecofriendly or green buildings can help in total electricity consumption in this sector in the future. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has implemented a scheme regarding “Energy Efficient Solar/Green Buildings” [68], which aims to promote the widespread construction of energy-efficient solar/green buildings in the country through a combination of financial and promotional incentives. Green buildings help reduce the total electricity consumption by approximately 25% [69]. In India the goal is 30 to 40% of energy savings on energy used for lighting and air conditioning according to the official sources [68]. In summary, the following scenarios were used for testing: Energies 2019, 12, 1361 7 of 14

HighEnergies Renewable 2019, 12, x FOR and PEER Gas REVIEW production (HRG): This topic focuses on the generation of electricity.7 of 14 More emphasis has been on the generation of electricity from renewable sources as well as nuclear energylighting and natural and air gas. conditioning In this scenario, according the to expansion the official of thesources electricity [68]. In infrastructure summary, the from following the point of viewscenarios of renewables were used is for as muchtesting: as the levels expected in 2022 (175 TW capacity is expected by that time). In otherHigh words,Renewable the and growth Gas production of renewables (HRG): does This not topic slow focuses down on even the generation after 2022. of In electricity. case there is More emphasis has been on the generation of electricity from renewable sources as well as nuclear shortage of electricity supply, coal- and lignite-based power plants will be set up by the model. energy and natural gas. In this scenario, the expansion of the electricity infrastructure from the point Low Renewable and Gas production (LRG): Again, focusing on the generation of electricity from of view of renewables is as much as the levels expected in 2022 (175 TW capacity is expected by that LRG istime). preferred In other to words, coal- andthe growth lignite-based of renewables power does plants. not slow In this down scenario, even after the 2022. growth In case ofrenewables there is after 2022shortage has of slowed electricity down supply, and coal- the shortage and lignite-ba of supplysed power is handled plants will by be coal- set andup by lignite-based the model. plants. Additionally,Low note Renewable that nuclear, and Gas natural production gas and (LRG): non-utilities Again, focusing power plants on the are generation also added of electricity as needed by both scenarios.from LRG is preferred to coal- and lignite-based power plants. In this scenario, the growth of Energyrenewables Saving-Industrial, after 2022 has commercialslowed down and and domestic the shortage sector of (ES):supply This is sectorhandled is fromby coal- the pointand of view oflignite-based the demand plants. of electricity. Additionally, In this note scenario, that nuclea it isr, natural assumed gas that and investmentsnon-utilities power are used plants toprovide are more energy-efficientalso added as needed solutions by both to scenarios. industry, such as smart systems [70] or motivation for energy service Energy Saving-Industrial, commercial and domestic sector (ES): This sector is from the point of companies, at the cost of expanding the capacity infrastructure. The attractiveness of green buildings view of the demand of electricity. In this scenario, it is assumed that investments are used to provide to themore domestic energy-efficient and commercial solutions sectors to industry, is also consideredsuch as smart in thissystems scenario. [70] or motivation for energy Highservice Growth companies, of industry at the cost (HG): of expanding In this scenario, the capacity most infrastructure. of the investments The attractiveness are used to of expand green the infrastructurebuildings ofto industrialthe domestic production, and commercial while sectors few investmentsis also considered are placedin this scenario. into energy savings. This scenario alsoHigh mimics Growth the of industry “Make in(HG): India” In this initiative, scenario, whichmost of encourages the investments multinational are used to expand and domestic the companiesinfrastructure to manufacture of industrial their production, products inwhile India. fewThis investments scenario are was placed chosen into because energy savings. showing This one of the possiblescenario extremes, also mimics i.e., the high-growth “” not supported initiative, which by the encourages energy savings multinational at the similar and domestic level. companies to manufacture their products in India. This scenario was chosen because showing one of 5. Resultsthe possible extremes, i.e., high-growth not supported by the energy savings at the similar level.

5.1. Electricity5. Results Demand

As5.1. expected, Electricity thedemand high growth of industry shows a large number of electricity requirements from the industrial sector. All industries were assumed to grow at a slightly higher pace than the historical As expected, the high growth of industry shows a large number of electricity requirements from rates, while the electricity intensity per ton of production stayed relatively the same. Figures4 and5 the industrial sector. All industries were assumed to grow at a slightly higher pace than the representhistorical the demandrates, while for the electricity electricity from intensity the different per ton sectorsof production to 2030 stayed in this relatively scenario. the Industrialsame. demandFigures for electricity 4 and 5 represent is expected the todemand grow nearlyfor electric threeity times from compared the different to 2015.sectors to 2030 in this Allscenario. other Industrial sectors also demand experience for electricity growth is ofexpect nearlyed to two grow times nearly compared three times to 2015.compared In the to 2015. domestic sector, theAll growth other is sectors attributed also experience to the rise growth in population of nearly and two income times compared levels of to the 2015. residents. In the domestic Commercial sectorssector, grow the because growth of is expanding attributed commercialto the rise in floor population space and and the income intensity levels of electricityof the residents. usage per squareCommercial meter. This sectors sector grow shows because higher growthof expanding than thecommercial agriculture floor sector, space and and these the twointensity sectors of also consumeelectricity the same usage amount per square of electricity meter. This by sector 2030. shows higher growth than the agriculture sector, and these two sectors also consume the same amount of electricity by 2030.

Figure 4. Electricity consumption from different sectors in a high-growth scenario. Energies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 14

Energies 2019, 12, 1361Figure 4. Electricity consumption from different sectors in a high-growth scenario. 8 of 14

In summary, LEAP shows that the total electricity consumption is expected to increase from 1000In TWh summary, in 2015 LEAP to 3000 shows TWh thatin 2030. the totalIn 2030, electricity industrial consumption demand rises is expectedto 1700 TWh; to increase the domestic from 1000demand TWh rises in 2015 to 490 to 3000 TWh; TWh the inagricultural 2030. In 2030, demand industrial increases demand to 350 rises TWh; to 1700the commercial TWh; the domestic demand demandrises to rises340 TWh; to 490 the TWh; transportation the agricultural demand demand rises increases to 30 TWh; to 350 and TWh; the the other commercial sectors increase demand to rises 140 toTWh. 340 TWh; the transportation demand rises to 30 TWh; and the other sectors increase to 140 TWh. TheThe energy energy saving saving scenario scenario (Figure (Figure5) in 5) LEAP in LEA showsP shows that thethat total the electricitytotal electricity consumption consumption from allfrom sectors all sectors increases increases from approximately from approximately 1000 TWh 1000 in TWh 2015 in to 2015 2300 to TWh 2300 in TWh 2030. in The 2030. reduction The reduction in the consumptionin the consumption of electricity of electricity is mostly is becausemostly because of the energy of the savingenergy options saving usedoptions by used the industry by the industry and its slightlyand its lower slightly growth lower rate growth compared rate tocompared the earlier to scenario. the earlier Industrial scenario. demand Industrial rises bydemand approximately rises by aapproximately factor of 2 in this a factor scenario of 2 fromin this 450 scenario TWh in from 2015 450 to 1000 TWh TWh in 2015 in 2030. to 1000 TWh in 2030. TheThe commercial commercial sectors sectors alsoalso experienceexperience manymany potentialpotential electricity savings in in this this scenario scenario and and a aslight slight decrease decrease in in the the domestic sector. This savingssavings (input to thethe models)models) cancan bebe attributedattributed toto the the expectedexpected rise rise in in popularity popularity of of green green buildings buildings in in India India that that have have electrical electrical savings savings of of approximately approximately 25%25% plus plus other other energy-saving energy-saving benefits. benefits. TheThe domesticdomestic sectorsector decreaseddecreased onlyonly slightly slightly because because of of the the ongoingongoing rural rural electrification electrification program program and and the the government’s government’s priority priority to have to have a 100% a 100% electrification electrification rate, especiallyrate, especially in rural in areas.rural areas.

FigureFigure 5. 5.Electricity Electricity consumption consumption from from different different sectors sectors in in an an energy-saving energy-saving scenario. scenario. 5.2. Electricity Generation 5.2. Electricity generation In Figure6a, the LEAP results for electricity generation in energy saving scenarios for the LRG In Figure 6a, the LEAP results for electricity generation in energy saving scenarios for the LRG and HRG cases suggests that coal is still the most important fuel for generating electricity, although and HRG cases suggests that coal is still the most important fuel for generating electricity, although its shares have decreased to 23% in the LRG case and up to 32% in the HRG case. This decrease in its shares have decreased to 23% in the LRG case and up to 32% in the HRG case. This decrease in electricity generation from coal sources is due to the rapid expansion planned with the “Solar Alliance” electricity generation from coal sources is due to the rapid expansion planned with the “Solar until 2022. The renewables’ roles in electricity generation in the LRG and HRG cases are 12% and 20%, Alliance” until 2022. The renewables’ roles in electricity generation in the LRG and HRG cases are respectively, which is also a 2-fold and 4-fold increase, respectively, in shares since 2015. Of course, 12% and 20%, respectively, which is also a 2-fold and 4-fold increase, respectively, in shares since total electricity generation has also increased from 1337 TWh in 2015 to 3063 TWh in 2030. 2015. Of course, total electricity generation has also increased from 1337 TWh in 2015 to 3063 TWh in In Figure6b, the LEAP results for the LRG and HRG cases for the high growth of industry also 2030. shows that coal is still an important fuel for electricity generation. However, in the HRG case, the In Figure 6b, the LEAP results for the LRG and HRG cases for the high growth of industry also generation of electricity from renewables has surpassed that by coal generation. This is due to the shows that coal is still an important fuel for electricity generation. However, in the HRG case, the continuing rapid expansion of the renewable energy network in India after 2022. In both cases, and in generation of electricity from renewables has surpassed that by coal generation. This is due to the both energy saving and industrial growth scenarios, nuclear energy is slowly becoming increasingly continuing rapid expansion of the renewable energy network in India after 2022. In both cases, and important for securing the electricity needs for India’s future. In both cases, oil was not regarded for in both energy saving and industrial growth scenarios, nuclear energy is slowly becoming the future generation of electricity because of small reserves located in the country. increasingly important for securing the electricity needs for India’s future. In both cases, oil was not regarded for the future generation of electricity because of small reserves located in the country.

Energies 2019, 12, 1361 9 of 14 Energies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 14

FigureFigure 6. Electricity 6. Electricity generation generationfor for thethe energy-saving and and high-growth high-growth scenarios. scenarios.

6. Discussion6. Discussion PubliclyPublicly available available official official data data from from all all sectors sectors were were available,available, especially for for the the core core industries industries in in India. Empirical data were obtained for the domestic and commercial sectors. Good estimates India. Empirical data were obtained for the domestic and commercial sectors. Good estimates could could be acquired from the Census data [47] and the USAID ECO-III Project [60] estimates for be acquired from the Census data [47] and the USAID ECO-III Project [60] estimates for commercial commercial spaces. In the case of industries, the TERI [41] energy data directory together with the spaces.Ministry In the of case Steel of and industries, the Ministry the of TERI Petroleum [41] energy [43] contained data directory vital data together regarding with energy the Ministryuse by of Steelvarious and the types Ministry of industries of Petroleum in India. [43 In] containedthe case of vitalthe micro, data regardingsmall and energymedium use enterprises by various sector, types of industrieswhich incontributed India. In theto approximately case of the micro, 8% of smallthe GDP and and medium approximately enterprises 40% sector,of the manufacturing which contributed to approximatelyoutput [71], there 8% is of inadequate the GDP anddata approximatelyin terms of energy 40% consumption of the manufacturing because of the outputdiversity [71 of], this there is inadequatesector. With data major in terms policy of energyinitiatives consumption to develop th becauseis sector of further, the diversity such as ofThe this Micro, sector. Small With and major policyMedium initiatives Enterprises to develop Development this sector Act further, [72] and such the aspolicy The for Micro, the reservation Small and of Medium production Enterprises for Developmentmanufacturers Act [72in ]this and sector, the policy the growth for the in reservationthis sector will of productionnot slow down for manufacturersin the future. Because in this of sector, the sheer size of this sector, there is also the possibility of potentially large energy savings that can be the growth in this sector will not slow down in the future. Because of the sheer size of this sector, there acquired. The ministry related to this sector has many policies for expanding this sector but none for is alsoenergy the possibility savings. of potentially large energy savings that can be acquired. The ministry related to this sectorJudging has many from policies the simulation for expanding results, this the sectorrenewable but noneenergy for network energy savings.needs to be properly Judgingimplemented from into the the simulation system to make results, it successful. the renewable Electricity energy production network and distribution needs to be do properlynot implementednecessarily into follow the the system typical to makeassumptions it successful. made by Electricity neoclassical production economics, and which distribution means that do not necessarilyperfect followcompetition the typical between assumptions the different madesources by be neoclassicalcomes inefficient. economics, Furthermore, which the means government that perfect competitionwould need between to intervene the different by subsidizing sources some becomes sections inefficient. of the electricity Furthermore, network, thewhich government would result would needin to an intervene optimal outcome by subsidizing [73]. In India, some the sections National of theElectricity electricity Policy network, mentions which that the would commission result in an optimalneeds outcome to determine [73]. Inan India,appropriate the National deferential Electricity tariff to Policypromote mentions renewable that energy the commissionas they will take needs to determine an appropriate deferential tariff to promote renewable energy as they will take some time to compete with conventional sources on the basis of prices [74], but in the long term, they are expected to compete with all other sources in terms of cost. Energies 2019, 12, 1361 10 of 14

The expansion of nuclear energy is important in India, which according to the National Action Plan on Climate Change is a way to reduce CO2 emissions. Following the Fukushima disaster, however, nuclear energy has faced local opposition [75]. Mishra [76] mentions that one of the reasons the public are fearful of nuclear technology is because of lack of information disseminated to the people. Convincing people that nuclear energy is a viable technology to meet the growing demands of the country should be one of the priorities of the government. To justify opening new nuclear power plants, the Indian nuclear establishment cannot just highlight their nuclear safety record but must also highlight the advanced mechanisms they have in place for safe operation. It is essential to have regular public interaction, communication and public awareness meetings to educate the people regarding nuclear energy to ensure that nuclear energy is a success in India. With ambitions of extending the renewable energy network from the announcement of the solar alliance, the electricity mix in the future will not be dominated by coal but a mixture of coal, renewable energy and nuclear energy (Figure6). Implementation of these sources of electricity in the electricity network in India is important to realize the potential the country has to reduce the dependence on coal for electricity generation, which would subsequently reduce overall CO2 emissions. The LEAP results show that with proper strategy and planning, renewable energy and nuclear energy can become an important energy source while still utilizing indigenous coal. The petroleum industry can cater to the needs of the transportation sector but not too much to the power sector because of India’s dependence on imported crude oil for this industry, while natural gas can contribute gradually to the network with the discovery of new fields and the stable production of CBM. All the analyses of the production and forecasting of electricity consumption consistently point to its ever-increasing importance to the . The orientation of India to the production of electricity from coal reveals India’s fundamental problem, which is that India ranks among the three largest polluters of our planet (e.g., [77,78]). The need for growth in electricity generation in the future is boosted by the fact that almost a quarter of the state’s population does not have permanent access to electricity [2]. In the concept of Indian electricity generation, there are two ways to solve these basic problems: a nuclear alternative and a more intensive development of renewable sources, especially plants [79]. The development of new technologies may lead to a partial regrouping of future power generation in favor of solar power plants at the expense of core production. Solar power plants also provide faster solutions for electrification of rural households. Expected year-on-year increases in solar projects make India the third fastest-growing solar power market [80–83] to compete with fossil electricity production in the future.

7. Conclusions We prepared several models of electricity demand from 2015 to 2030, based on publicly available datasets and trends. Models were tested on data from previous years and adjusted accordingly. From several scenarios, we decided to introduce several reference ones, which show possible situation in case of renewable energy sources or classic energy sources preferention, and in case of low and high electricity demand. The unambiguous result is a two to three fold increase of the electricity demand in all scenarios by 2030. The way of selection depend on both internal and external factors. The main problem of electricity generation in India is in its structure. The role of coal is emphasized, while the share of renewable energy sources (RES) including hydropower is relatively low. Considering that 14% of electricity generation is in the non-utilities group (Figure2), where the exact shares of different energy sources are unknown, it is possible that the share of coal in electricity generation might be even higher than stated above. This situation, supported by the fact that the role of nuclear energy is insignificant, means that for the future development of the industrial sector and the growing demand of the civilian population, the structure of electricity generation must be modified [83]. It seems probable that over the long-term horizon, the current structure might not cover the growing demand for electricity due to problems in coal supply, while the switch to low-carbon energy in power, heat, and transportation sectors seems to be (at least technically) feasible [84]. Energies 2019, 12, 1361 11 of 14

What are the real options for accommodation of the future needs of India concerning electricity generation? The crucial answer seems to be an analysis of the following issues: • Realistic possibilities of nuclear energy including its social acceptance • Evaluation of the potential of hydropower and renewable energy sources including their environmental impact • Reduction of the present high carbon emission sources during electricity generation with future low-emission goals. Next, steps would be taken according to the results of abovementioned studies. Diversification is necessary, since the growing dependence on coal brings several disadvantages. For example, these disadvantages include high carbon emissions, the high cost of the transportation of coal to the final consumer destination, the high cost of the maintenance of a large electricity grid, the significant impact of on the environment, and the growing dependence on imports from other countries resulting in possible security threats.

Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/7/1361/s1, File F1: Brief introduction to LEAP modelling. Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.S.; Data curation, L.S.T.; Formal analysis, L.S.T.; Funding acquisition, J.J.; Investigation, L.S.T. and J.J.; Methodology, J.J.; Project administration, J.J.; Software, L.S.T.; Supervision, J.J. and M.S.; Validation, L.S.T. and M.S.; Visualization, M.S.; Writing—original draft, L.S.T. and M.S.; Writing—review & editing, J.J. Funding: This research was funded by the Ministry of Education, Youth, and Sports of the Czech Republic, grant numbers CZ.1.05/2.1.00/19.0389: Research Infrastructure Development of the CENET and SP 2018/33. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

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