energies Article Electricity Generation in India: Present State, Future Outlook and Policy Implications Lari Shanlang Tiewsoh 1, Jakub Jirásek 2,* and Martin Sivek 1 1 Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Mining and Geology, VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 15/2172, 708 00 Ostrava-Poruba, Czech Republic; [email protected] (L.S.T.); [email protected] (M.S.) 2 ENET Centre, VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, 17. listopadu 15/2172, 708 00 Ostrava-Poruba, Czech Republic * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 18 February 2019; Accepted: 30 March 2019; Published: 9 April 2019 Abstract: India is one of the fastest developing countries in the world. To sustain this growth, energy and electricity demands will increase. In 2015, of the 1337 TWh produced, 916 TWh were from fossil fuels. We prepared several models of electricity demand from 2015 to 2030, based on publicly available datasets and trends. Models were tested on data from previous years and adjusted accordingly. From several scenarios, we decided to introduce two possibilities, i.e., a scenario using high energy savings in all sectors, and a scenario counting on a high industrial growth not supported by an equal increase of electricity savings. For both cases we prepared models for extreme situations: (1) where coal- and lignite-based power plants are preferred after slow-down of a renewable energy boom, and (2) with high utilization of renewable energy supported by natural gas and nuclear energy. With GDP and population increasing at the same rate as in previous years, the unambiguous result in all scenarios is a 2 to 3-fold increase of the electricity demand by 2030. On the electricity production side, all scenarios stress the role of coal, renewables and nuclear sources. Both energy and climate policies should be prepared for such a development in advance. Keywords: India; electricity; energy policy; sustainable development 1. Introduction Electricity infrastructure and production are important for a developing economy like that of India, which with a population of 1.2 billion and an area of 3.29 million km2, is the 7th largest country in the world. With a GDP of US$ 2.3 trillion in 2015 and an average GDP growth of 7% per year [1], the growth of the electricity sector will be important to sustain the economic output of the country. Total electricity generation in India during 2015 was 1300 TWh from both utilities and non-utilities [2]. In 2013, the electricity consumption from all sectors was 824 TWh [3], and with an average growth rate of 9%, and it was estimated to be approximately 980 TWh in 2015. The electrical network suffers from transmission losses of approximately 25%. In 2015, per capita electricity consumption was 746 kWh [2]. Since per capita electricity consumption has a positive relation with GDP per capita (e.g., [4–6]), it can be used as a standard for judging the stage of economic development. Most countries with a GDP per capita of more than US$ 10,000 have an electricity consumption of more than 4500 kWh per capita [7,8]. There are few exceptions to this case, depending on the structure of the economy in that country [9]. It can be expected that with the growth of the Indian economy, the GDP per capita will improve, and hence, there will be a need for more electricity in the future. Energies 2019, 12, 1361; doi:10.3390/en12071361 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Energies 2019, 12, 1361 2 of 14 In this regard, forecasting the electricity demand is vital, as it can help the decision makers to keep up with the pace of the growing demands of the economy and to reduce power outages. The long-rangeEnergies 2019, 12 energy, x FOR PEER alternative REVIEW planning, referred to as LEAP [10], is a tool that is used2 to of forecast 14 energy demand and supply from various scenarios and can also be used for climate change mitigation assessmentlong-range (see energy electronic alternative Supplemetary planning,Materials). referred to as LEAP LEAP has [10], been is a used tool forthatthe is used Indian to forecast scenario for differentenergy cases demand and and levels. supply Kale from and various Pohekar scenarios [11] studiedand can also the be demand used for and climate supply change scenarios mitigation for the stateassessment. of Maharashtra, LEAP while has been the Indo-Germanused for the Indian Centre scenario for Sustainability for different published cases and a levels. document Kale thatand used Pohekar [11] studied the demand and supply scenarios for the state of Maharashtra, while the Indo- LEAP for studying the greenhouse emissions of the country. LEAP was also used in other countries German Centre for Sustainability published a document that used LEAP for studying the greenhouse such as Panama where investigators applied LEAP to promote wind power to the Panama electricity emissions of the country. LEAP was also used in other countries such as Panama where investigators mix [applied12]. Additionally, LEAP to promote in Taiwan, wind power LEAP to was the utilized Panama toelectricity study the mix energy [12]. Additionally, scenario where in Taiwan, its energy requirementsLEAP was are utilized met mostly to study by the imports energy [ 13scenario]. where its energy requirements are met mostly by Thisimports study [13]. will focus on the electricity supply and demand in India. Access to the electricity, which wasThis 84.5% study inwill 2016 focus [14 on], the is notelectricity only asupply social, and but demand also a in political India. Access problem. to the Foreseenelectricity, 100% electrificationwhich was (demand 84.5% in side)2016 will[14], increaseis not only the a stresssocial, onbut the also supply a political chain. problem. It is not Foreseen clear whether 100% the Indianelectrification government (demand will prefer side) will an increase increase ofthe domestic stress on the energy/electricity supply chain. It is sources, not clear whichwhether would the be the mostIndian preferred government electricity will prefer mix, an increase and how of thatdomestic will energy/electricity comply with recent sources, developments which would andbe the policy most preferred electricity mix, and how that will comply with recent developments and policy initiatives for climate change mitigation. In our study, we would like to bring attention to such crucial initiatives for climate change mitigation. In our study, we would like to bring attention to such crucial questions. By set of future electricity generation mix models we have tried to show outline of possible questions. By set of future electricity generation mix models we have tried to show outline of possible futurefuture developments developments and and basic basic problems problems they they mightmight bring. 2. Electricity2. Electricity Generation generation in in India India ElectricityElectricity production production in in India India is is mostly mostly achievedachieved through through coal coal thermal thermal power power plants plants (Figure (Figure 1). 1). AlthoughAlthough there there have have been been efforts efforts to diversify to diversify the options,the options, particularly particularly in the in casethe case of renewable of renewable energies, coal remainsenergies, thecoal dominantremains the source dominant of electricity source of elec in thetricity country. in the country. Since 2000, Since the 2000, share the ofshare electricity of productionelectricity from production coal has from been coal slowly has been increasing; slowly increasing; it was 68% it was at the68% start at the of start the of millennium the millennium and has increasedand has to 73%increased in 2013. to The73% percentualin 2013. The shares percentual of all othershares energy of all sources,other energy except sources, renewables, except have renewables, have decreased during that time, [14]. decreased during that time, [14]. In 2015, India generated a total of 1078 TWh from coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear and hydropower In 2015, India generated a total of 1078 TWh from coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear and hydropower sources [2]. Renewable and alternative electricity in the form of solar, wind, biomass and small sourceshydropower [2]. Renewable (less than and 25 MW) alternative plants are electricity also making in big the progress. form of These solar, types wind, of electricity biomass source and small hydropowerwere estimated (less than to generate 25 MW) approximately plants are also 70 TWh making of electricity big progress. in 2015. These Non-utilities types ofor electricityindependent source werepower estimated producers to generate have also approximately been growing 70at a TWh rate of 9% electricity over the inyears 2015. [3], Non-utilities and it was estimated or independent that powerthey producers produced have approximately also been 185 growing TWh in at 2015. a rate India of9% also over imported the years some [ 3electricity], and it wasfrom estimatedBhutan in that they produced2015 (5 TWh) approximately to satisfy its demand. 185 TWh in 2015. India also imported some electricity from Bhutan in 2015 (5 TWh) to satisfy its demand. Figure 1. Electricity production in India from different sources [14]. Figure 1. Electricity production in India from different sources [14]. Energies 2019, 12, 1361 3 of 14 Energies 2019, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 14 As mentioned, the bulk of the production comes from coal power plants that produced 840 TWh Figure 1. Electricity production in India from different sources [14]. in 2015 (Figure2), which is 63% of the total production, followed by non-utilities (185 TWh) and hydropowerAs mentioned, (125 TWh, the excluding bulk of the small production hydro). Nuclear,comes from natural coal power gas, lignite plants and that oil produced also contributed 840 38 TWh,TWh 44 in TWh,2015 (Figure 34 TWh 2), and which 500 is GWh, 63% respectively,of the total production, to electricity followed generation. by non-utilities Renewable (185 sources TWh) were estimatedand hydropower to contribute (125 to TWh, 70 TWh excluding of electricity small hydro).