MICROBES AND MARKETS: WAS THE BLACK DEATH AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION? Gregory Clark, UC-Davis
[email protected] Did the Black Death have any effects on the medieval economy beyond what would be expected from the population losses? I test this by constructing measures of real wages, real land rents, and rates of return on capital from 1210 to 1500. These reveal first that there is no sign the Black Death had any effect on the efficiency of agriculture. Indeed efficiency changes little all the way from 1210 to 1500. Second the return on capital did fall from 10% around 1300 to about 5% by 1400, the biggest change in English history. But this decline seemingly began around 1300, long before the Black Death, and so was probably unconnected. Third the measured efficiency of the agricultural sector in 1210 is little below the efficiency measured in the same way in 1600-49. Only after 1650 is there sign of growth in the efficiency of agriculture. The growth of the medieval economy in the thirteenth century, by implication, must have come from demographic factors and not technological advance. Anyone writing a political history of England between 1066 and 1760 would certainly include a set of events pointed to as explaining how a feudal oligarchy in 1066 evolved into a limited democracy by 1760. There would be debate about what events to include – 1688 would be on everyone’s list, but perhaps only some would include 1381. But any narrative would have some significant dates, some key turning points. A narrative history of this kind also implicitly includes the idea that these events made a difference, that other paths might have been followed, and that there is a story to be told about how we got from 1066 to 1760.