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Security of Supply I: Generation Adequacy in Serbia And

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Security of Supply I: Generation Adequacy in Serbia And SecuritySecurity ofof supplysupply I:I: GenerationGeneration adequacyadequacy inin SerbiaSerbia andand SEESEE Harrisburg, 31 March 2008 1 MainMain PurposePurpose ofof thethe presentationpresentation z Describe elements for Generation Adequacy in Serbia and SEE z How to fulfill requests for Security of supply z Generation capacity production forecast 2 ContentsContents z ObjectivesObjectives andand overviewoverview ofof powerpower systemsystem planningplanning inin SerbiaSerbia andand SEESEE z ComplianceCompliance withwith EUEU legislationlegislation z ForecastingForecasting electricityelectricity demanddemand (annual,(annual, varying,varying, peak)peak) z CapacityCapacity mechanismsmechanisms toto stabilizestabilize thethe generationgeneration volumesvolumes z PowerPower productionproduction capacitycapacity reportingreporting byby generators,generators, interfaceinterface withwith thethe transmissiontransmission gridgrid z GenerationGeneration plantplant availabilityavailability (scheduled(scheduled maintenance,maintenance, forcedforced outages)outages) o BasicBasic modelingmodeling approachesapproaches o SpecialSpecial modelingmodeling forfor variablevariable (wind)(wind) generationgeneration o ProcessProcess ofof commissioningcommissioning newnew generationgeneration capacitycapacity 3 ObjectivesObjectives andand overviewoverview ofof powerpower systemsystem planningplanning inin SerbiaSerbia andand SEESEE 4 SEESEE GeneratingGenerating SourcesSources -- 20052005 5 SEESEE PeakPeak demanddemand andand sources:sources: 20052005--20202020 6 ResultsResults ofof GISGIS UpdateUpdate 7 SEESEE GenerationGeneration mixmix inin 20202020 8 KeyKey ResultsResults ofof GISGIS UpdateUpdate (1) LocalLocal lignite:lignite: mostmost scenariosscenarios indicateindicate thethe needneed forfor 4,0004,000--4,8004,800 MW;MW; highhigh CO2CO2 pricesprices maymay limitlimit itsits useuse ImportedImported coal:coal: upup toto 3,0003,000 MWMW selected;selected; relativelyrelatively stablestable price;price; plentifulplentiful andand securesecure supply;supply; butbut lacklack ofof infrastructureinfrastructure (ports;(ports; railroads)railroads) NaturalNatural gas:gas: upup toto 8,0008,000 MWMW selected;selected; cleanestcleanest fuel,fuel, butbut highlyhighly volatilevolatile price;price; multiplemultiple supplysupply sourcessources couldcould enhanceenhance diversificationdiversification andand competition,competition, butbut requirerequire significantsignificant investmentsinvestments Nuclear:Nuclear: CompetitiveCompetitive atat €€30/ton30/ton CO2,CO2, butbut seriousserious obstaclesobstacles remainremain ((sitingsiting andand financing)financing) 9 KeyKey ResultsResults ofof GISGIS UpdateUpdate (2) Hydro:Hydro: 2,1122,112 MWMW competitivecompetitive underunder highhigh gasgas pricesprices oror highhigh CO2CO2 prices;prices; higherhigher potentialpotential existsexists butbut moremore comprehensivecomprehensive assessmentassessment isis neededneeded RenewablesRenewables:: RenewablesRenewables maymay bebe competitivecompetitive atat highhigh gasgas oror CO2CO2 prices;prices; moremore reviewreview neededneeded CHP:CHP: DistrictDistrict HeatingHeating couldcould bebe modernizedmodernized andand expandedexpanded toto generategenerate electricity,electricity, too;too; highhigh efficiencyefficiency andand smallsmall incrementsincrements whichwhich areare easiereasier toto financefinance areare attractiveattractive features;features; moremore detaildetail assessmentassessment isis neededneeded ElectricityElectricity Imports:Imports: fromfrom UkraineUkraine andand Russia;Russia; ViableViable option;option; dependsdepends onon pricingpricing (break(break--eveneven costscosts isis €€32.6/MWh)32.6/MWh) andand strengtheningstrengthening ofof transmissiontransmission 10 StateState ofof playplay onon GenerationGeneration inin SEESEE • ThereThere isis aa lacklack ofof electricityelectricity inin SEESEE regionregion (present(present generationgeneration vs.vs. consumptionconsumption growth)growth) • SouthSouth ofof SEESEE isis facingfacing thethe greatestgreatest energyenergy deficitdeficit (Albania,(Albania, Greece,Greece, Montenegro,Montenegro, FYROM,FYROM, UNMIK)UNMIK) • ClearClear indicativesindicatives forfor consumption/energyconsumption/energy demanddemand growthgrowth fromfrom 20052005--20202020 ClearClear conclusions:conclusions: ¾ ThereThere isis anan urgenturgent needneed forfor generationgeneration capacitiescapacities investmentsinvestments inin SEESEE regionregion ¾ DeficitDeficit ofof electricityelectricity inin SEESEE isis providedprovided throughthrough electricityelectricity importimport (present(present andand inin nearnear future)future) ¾ HighHigh ElectricityElectricity ImportImport pricesprices (40(40--4545 €€//MWhMWh vs.vs. 7070--8080 €€//MWhMWh inin SEE)SEE) 11 Serbia:Serbia: DevelopmentDevelopment andand InvestmentsInvestments (1) REBIS: GIS Study, (WB, 2004) Data on South East Europe, 2005 - 2020: SEE region will require z 12,70012,700 MWMW ofof newnew capacitycapacity z 9,4009,400 MWMW ofof rehabilitatedrehabilitated capacitycapacity (to(to extendextend lifelife time)time) Serbia will require z 640640 MWMW ofof newnew capacitycapacity z 2,8002,800 MWMW ofof rehabilitatedrehabilitated capacitycapacity (to(to extendextend lifelife timetime -- partlypartly accomplished)accomplished) 12 Serbia:Serbia: DevelopmentDevelopment andand InvestmentInvestment (2) Demand Forecast : Anticipated yearly increase (without KiM) z REBIS-GIS Study (WB, ‘04): 1.6% -1.1% z LCIP for Serbia (EAR, ‘05): 1% z Serbian Energy Strategy (‘05): 1.9% z EPS (’07): 1.3 - 0.6% EPS’s Assumptions: z Economic electricity price z Development of district heating systems z Development of gas sector z Effects of rationalisation 13 Serbia:Serbia: DevelopmentDevelopment andand InvestmentInvestment (3) z Rehabilitation and modernization of existing facilities z Construction of new capacities Domestic resources z Lignite z Hydro potential z Renewable sources Imported resources z Natural Gas The most important rehabilitation projects: z HPP Đerdap, 6*176 MW z HPP Bajina Bašta, 4*91 MW 14 ElectricityElectricity demanddemand inin SerbiaSerbia • Projected demand increase (EPS projection) of 9% for the period 2006-2015 41000 40000 39000 38000 GWh 37000 36000 35000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 year 15 ElectricityElectricity GenerationGeneration prioritypriority projectsprojects •• EPSEPS projectsprojects supportedsupported byby thethe GovernmentGovernment ofof RSRS I.I. TPPTPP KolubaraKolubara BB 700700 MWMW (2x350(2x350 MW)MW) lignitelignite firedfired powerpower plantplant II.II. TPPTPP NikolaNikola TeslaTesla B3B3 (TENT(TENT B3)B3) 700700 MWMW lignitelignite firedfired supercriticalsupercritical powerpower plantplant III.III. Reconstruction/Reconstruction/ ExtensionExtension ofof CHPPCHPP NoviNovi SadSad OptimizationOptimization ofof existingexisting plantplant andand newnew unitunit –– upup toto 450450 MWMW gasgas--firedfired combinedcombined heatheat andand powerpower plantplant withwith combinedcombined cyclecycle gasgas turbineturbine 16 I.I. TPPTPP KolubaraKolubara BB • Country and location within country: o Serbia, Lazarevac/Ub z Type of project: o Construction completion o Joint investment into turnkey construction and operation of TPP Kolubara B z Description of the project: o 700 MW (2x350 MW) lignite-fired power plants with closed cooling system and environmentally optimized design according to BAT on the site of Kolubara B z Origin of funding: o IPP - Private z Overall project value: o Approximately EUR 750 million 17 II.II. TPPTPP NikolaNikola TeslaTesla B3B3 • Country and location within country: o Serbia, Obrenovac z Type of project: o Greenfield/expansion of TPP Nikola Tesla B o Joint investment into construction and operation of TENT B3 z Description of the project: o 700MW lignite-fired supercritical power plant with open cooling system and environmentally optimized design according to BAT on the site of TENT B z Origin of funding: o IPP - Private z Overall project value: o Approximately EUR 900 million 18 III.III. ReconstructionReconstruction // ExtensionExtension ofof CHPPCHPP NoviNovi SadSad • Country and location within country: o Serbia, Novi Sad • Type of project: o Rehabilitation/expansion z Description of the project: o Optimization of existing plant and new unit – up to 450 MW gas-fired combined-heat-and-power plant with combined cycle gas turbine o Beside PE EPS and its local partner, the City of Novi Sad, project requires involvement of the strategic partner (preferably foreign investor) z Origin of funding: o PPP – partially soft loans z Overall project value: o Approximately EUR 120 – 160 million 19 ContributionContribution toto thethe energyenergy marketmarket z NationalNational && RegionalRegional o ReplacementReplacement andand expansionexpansion ofof poolpool ofof generationgeneration assetsassets preparesprepares thethe groundsgrounds forfor meetingmeeting thethe projectedprojected higherhigher energyenergy demandsdemands o NewNew thermalthermal capacitiescapacities upup toto 1,8501,850 MWMW ((KolubaraKolubara B,B, TENTTENT B3B3 andand CHPCHP CCGTCCGT NoviNovi Sad)Sad) willwill notnot onlyonly securesecure supplysupply onon thethe SerbianSerbian marketmarket butbut havehave significantsignificant impactimpact onon electricityelectricity imbalancesimbalances onon thethe regionalregional levellevel o NewNew technologiestechnologies ensuresensures substantialsubstantial environmentalenvironmental advantagesadvantages
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