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Trayectorias De Ciclones Tropicales (2006)

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Trayectorias De Ciclones Tropicales (2006) Trayectorias de ciclones tropicales (2006) 3 depresiones tropicales: 2-E, 18-E, 20-E 8 tormentas tropicales: Aletta, Emilia, Fabio, Gilma, Miriam, Norman, Olivia, Rosa 10 huracanes: Bud,Carlotta,Daniel,Hector,Ileana,John,Kristy,Lane,Paul,Sergio. Temporada 2006 • Mayo 27 – Noviembre 20 • 18 tormentas tropicales (Aletta,…,Sergio) • 2 sistemas • 12 sistemas entraron a tierra durante el periodo en septiembre: julio-septiembre John • 2 sistemas entraron a tierra Lane en septiembre y otro en octubre: (John, Lane) y 1 en octubre (Paul). Paul Vientos máximos: 190 km/h Ráfagas: 225 km/h Presión mínima: 955 mb Movimiento al NNW: 23 km/h 61 km/h 29 28 27 26 90 km/h 25 Hurricane Ileana 24 21-27 August 955 mb Hurricane 115 km/h Tropical Storm 23 Tropical Dep. Extratropical Subtr. Storm Subtr. Dep. Low / Wave 22 00 UTC Pos/Date 12 UTC Position PPP Min. press (mb) Huracán Ileana: 21-27 Ago. Ejemplo de un sistema “distante” que proporciona alto contenido de humedad y tormentas locales. Vientos máximos: 170 km/h Ráfagas: 207 km/h Presión mínima: 958 mb Movimiento al NNW: 13 km/h Diámetro del ojo: 18 km Alerta de Huracán: San Evaristo-Bahía Magdalena 61 km/h 90 km/h 115 km/h 4 700 mb (2737 m) 3 2 Pmín = 958 mb 1 Hurricane John Vmáx = 176 km/h (SE) 28 August-4 September 2006 31 Hurricane Tropical Storm Tropical Dep. Extratropical 30 Subtr. Storm Subtr. Dep. 948 mb 29 Low / Wave 00 UTC Pos/Date 28 12 UTC Position PPP Min. press (mb) Huracán John: 28 Ago. - 4 Sept. Entró a tierra 3 horas después de esta imagen Convección máxima 6 145 GOES-11 (infrarrojo) E 351 y s c 227 Trayectoria John (▲) a l 286 199 a 141 c a l 264 i 54 b 235 r a 110 455 d a 222 65 53 92 101 247 d 359 e 65 306 83 t 182 506 o n 110 196 o 79 174 s 120 115 258 84 196 173 Lluvia total (mm) estaciones del SMN 128 447 Estación climatológica (CNA/SMN) Los Barriles, B.C.S. (23º40’45.6”N, 109º42’39.7”, 140 m) Localizada cerca al sitio de entrada a tierra Junio 21, 2006 (Antes de John y la temporada de lluvias) 49 m/s; 109 mph; 176 km/h Septiembre 13, 2006 (Después de John; 196.5 mm) El Servicio Met. Nacional cuenta con 100 de estas estaciones (tradicionales) en el estado y más de 3,000 en el país. Una observación (8AM) se toma diariamente Pronósticos oficiales ● National Hurricane Center (Miami, FL) ● Emitidos a las 03, 09, 15 y 21 GMT ● Cada pronóstico válido de 12 a 120 hours ● Se determina un “consenso” a partir de varios modelos numéricos: Término (120 hr) CLIPER,GFS,NOGAPS,UKMET,GFDL,FSU/SE,BAM,LBAR (track) SHIFOR,SHIPS (intensity) Entrada a tierra Inicio pronóstico Entrada a tierra (pronóstico de 03UTC 31 Ago) • a 48 horas desde inicio • 53 km al suroeste del sitio real • 2 horas antes de la hora real • NHC report 95 kt; fcst 110 kt (dif=8m/s) Tendencia de trayectorias al oeste; no hubo radiosondeos en el noroeste de México 61 km/h 90 km/h 115 km/h Vientos máximos: 200 km/h 30 Ráfagas: 245 km/h 25 700 mb (2717 m) 17 Presión mínima: 952 mb P = 955 mb 952 mb mín 16 Movimiento al NNW: 16 km/h 20 Hurricane Lane V = 198 km/h (SE) 13-17 September 2006 máx Hurricane 15 Tropical Storm Tropical Dep. Extratropical Diámetro del ojo: 18 km 14 Subtr. Storm 15 Subtr. Dep. Low / Wave 00 UTC Pos/Date Alerta de Huracán: 12 UTC Position PPP Min. press (mb) El Roblito-Topolobampo 10 -120 -115 -110 -105 -100 -95 Huracán Lane: 13-17 Septiembre, pasó al sur de Baja California Pronósticos oficiales ● National Hurricane Center (Miami, FL) ● Emitidos a las 03, 09, 15 y 21 GMT Término (120 hr) ● Cada pronóstico válido de 12 a 120 hours ● Se determina un “consenso” a partir de varios modelos numéricos: Entrada a tierra CLIPER,GFS,NOGAPS,UKMET,GFDL,FSU/SE,BAM,LBAR (track) SHIFOR,SHIPS (intensity) * Inicio pronóstico Entrada a tierra (pronóstico de 09UTC 15 Sep) • a 96 horas (4 dias) desde inicio • 396 km al noroeste del sitio real • 59 horas despues de la hora real • 110 kt nhc; 55 kt fcst • 28 m/s mas debil en pronostico Vientos máximos: 81 km/h Ráfagas: 99 km/h Presión mínima: 999 mb Movimiento al NNW: 20 km/h Alerta de Tormenta Tropical: Agua Blanca- La Paz y Mazatlán-Altata 30 Hurricane Paul 21-26 October 2006 Hurricane 850 mb (1421 m) Tropical Storm Tropical Dep. Extratropical 61 km/h P = 999 mb Subtr. Storm mín 25 Subtr. Dep. Low / Wave 26 00 UTC Pos/Date V = 95 km/h (E) 12 UTC Position máx PPP Min. press (mb) 25 20 970 mb 24 23 22 15 -120 -115 -110 -105 -100 Huracán Paul: Oct. 21-25, pasó cerca a Isla Socorro y al sur de Baja California Pronósticos oficiales ● National Hurricane Center (Miami, FL) ● Emitidos a las 03, 09, 15 y 21 GMT ● Cada pronóstico válido de 12 a 120 hours ● Se determina un “consenso” a partir de varios modelos numéricos: CLIPER,GFS,NOGAPS,UKMET,GFDL,FSU/SE,BAM,LBAR (track) SHIFOR,SHIPS (intensity) Entrada a tierra y termino Inicio pronóstico Entrada a tierra (pronóstico de 09UTC 22 Oct) • a 72 horas (3 dias) desde inicio • 24 km al norte del sitio real • 26 horas antes de la hora real • 25 kt nhc; 60 kt fcst • 18 m/s mas fuerte en el pronostico Trayectorias de 13 Ciclones Tropicales en el Temporada Océano Pacífico oriental: 2007 • 5 tormentas (A,B,D,E,G,J) (mayo-septiembre) • 4 huracanes (C,F,H,I) • 4 depresiones (3,4,5,13)  Juliette (Sep/29-02) ← Gil (Ago/29-02) t Ivo  ← Henriette (Sep/18-23) (Ago/30-06) ← Flossie w u s(Ago/8-11) o ←pCosme n v q (Jul/14-18) ← Alvin ← Dalila Barbara → ←rErick (May/26-31) (Jul/21-27) (May/29-02) (Jul/31-02) Alvin Barbara Cosme 2007 Dalila Erick Flossie Gil Henriette Ivo Convección máxima (GOES-11) 0 5 y reportes de lluvia (CNA), Septiembre 3-6 93 15 3 97 11 6 14 17 422 10 263 172 33 81 440 196 520 302 207 545 190 172 165 82 224 154 Distribución de lluvia reportada por los observatorios y estaciones climatológicas (Huracán Henriette) 600.0 Agua de San San Bartolo Antonio 500.0 San Antonio Los Robles Lluvia 400.0 acumulada Valle Perdido El Triunfo (mm) 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 La Paz 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 Altura sobre el nivel del mar (m) • Las estaciones elevadas (>350 m) recibieron más de 300 mm • Estaciones cerca al nivel del mar recibieron menos de 25 mm • Alrededor de La Paz: CNA=81.5 mm; CIBNOR=88; CICESE=85; San Pedro=196; Los Robles=422.5 Huracán Henriette • Los pronósticos oficiales se derivan de (2007) un consenso de modelos numéricos NHC publicó un total de 47 (GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, pronósticos ECMWF, HWRF, etc). • Se actualizan cada 6 (3) horas y cada pronóstico cubre el periodo 12-120 horas (12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, 120). ○ -72 horas (3 dias) X -48 horas (2 dias) + -24 horas (1 dia) * -12 horas (0.5 dia) ▬ trayectoria observada DE PASEO POR BAJA CALIFORNIA: JULIO, LOWELL Y NORBERT (2008) Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, B.C. Luis Manuel Farfán Molina Julio 24 de agosto, 1230pm Lowell Norbert 10 de septiembre, 330pm 10 de octubre, 300pm Tormenta tropical Julio: Agosto 24-25 162 mm 0 mm 195 mm 198 mm 155 mm 14 mm 48 mm 118 mm CNA reportes de lluvia(mm) 193.1 % 0 % 161.9 % 129.7 % 99.7% 7.7 % 19.7 % 46.5 % % respecto a climatología anual Imágenes de satélite durante el periodo 9-11 de septiembre, 2008 Pronósticos oficiales CNH Antes de tierra@ —¼ 12 horas —O 24 horas —X 48 horas — 72 horas — Trayectoria @= Sep/11/03AM Poblaciones Tormenta tropical • Lowell: Sep 7-11 • Se emitieron 21 Pronósticos pronósticos. oficiales • Primero en tierra: CNH domingo 7 sep/09PM, 4.1 dias anticipación. Antes de tierra@ —¼ 12 horas —O 24 horas —X 48 horas — 72 horas — Trayectoria @= Sep/11/03AM Poblaciones Tormenta tropical • Lowell: Sep 7-11 Imágenes de satélite durante el periodo 9-11 de octubre, 2008 (125 mm) (110 mm) (86 mm) (121 mm) (34 mm) (121 mm) (182 mm) (27 mm) (110 mm) (16 mm) (6 mm) Participación en reuniones del comité municipal de protección civil: 10-11 de octubre 2008 La Paz, Baja California Sur Ciclón Tropical Norbert Representantes de la zona naval y militar, Comisión Federal de Electricidad y Centro de Presidenta municipal de La Paz Salud Pronósticos oficiales CNH Antes de tierra@ —¼ 24 horas —O 48 horas —X 72 horas • Se emitieron 35 — 96 horas pronósticos — Trayectoria • Primero en tierra: lunes 6 oct/09PM, 4.5 dias de anticipación. @ Oct/11/1030AM Huracán Norbert: • Poblaciones Octubre 7-12.
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