US Economic History: Great Depression
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 4, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents
Industrial Production: 1929-1941 1 CPI & PPI: 1920-1947 2 Producer Price Index: 1929-1941 3 Dow Jones: 1929-1941 4 Interest Rates: 1920-1941 5 Income Tax Returns: 1920-1942 6 Bank Deposits & Assets: 1920-1942 7 CPI & PPI: 1920-1947 8 Miscellaneous 9-10
November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrial Production: 1929-1941 Figure 1. 13 13 TB M US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1929-1941 (2007=100, monthly) 11 11
9 9
7 7
5 5
yardeni.com 3 3 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
Figure 2. 80 80 TB M
60 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1929-1941 60 (yearly percent change)
40 40
20 20
0 0
-20 -20
yardeni.com -40 -40 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
Page 1 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com CPI & PPI: 1920-1947 Figure 3. 75 75 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1920-1947
65 65
55 55
45 45
yardeni.com 35 35 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Figure 4. 17 50 TB M
Industrial Commodities 16 US PRODUCER PRICES: 1929-1941 (1982=100, monthly) Grains 40
15
14 30
13
20
12
yardeni.com 11 10 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 2 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Producer Price Index: 1929-1941 Figure 5. 16.5 16.5 TB M 16.0 16.0
15.5 PRODUCER PRICES: INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES 15.5 1929-1941 (1982=100) 15.0 15.0
14.5 14.5
14.0 14.0
13.5 13.5
13.0 13.0
12.5 12.5
12.0 12.0
11.5 11.5
11.0 11.0 yardeni.com 10.5 10.5 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6. 48 48 46 TB M 46 PRODUCER PRICES: GRAINS 44 44 (1982=100) 42 42 40 40 38 38 36 36 34 34 32 32 30 30 28 28 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 yardeni.com 10 10 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 3 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Dow Jones: 1929-1941 Figure 7. 400 400 TB M
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 1929-1941 300 (daily) 300
200 200
100 100
yardeni.com 0 0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 8. 13 440 TB M 12 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 400 1929-1941 (2007=100) 11 360
10 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 320 1929-1941
9 280
8 240
7 200
6 160
5 120
4 80
yardeni.com 3 40 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
Page 4 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Interest Rates: 1920-1941 Figure 9. 6.5 6.5 THREE-MONTH T-BILL RATE: 1920-1941 6.0 (percent) 6.0
5.5 5.5
5.0 5.0
4.5 4.5
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.0 3.0
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
.5 .5
.0 .0 yardeni.com -.5 -.5 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Page 5 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Income Tax Returns: 1920-1942 Figure 10. 600 600 CORPORATION INCOME TAX RETURNS (millions) 500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200 All Returns 100 Returns with Net Income 100
0 0 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
250 250 CORPORATION INCOME TAX RETURNS (billion dollars) 200 200
150 150
100 100
50 Total Receipts 50 Total Receipts: Returns with Net Income 0 0 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
90 90 RETURNS WITH NET INCOME (billion dollars)
70 70
50 Total Income 50
30 30
yardeni.com 10 10 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Source: Government Employment and Financies, Series Y 381-392 and Government, Series Y 402-411, Individual Income Tax Returns.
Page 6 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bank Deposits & Assets: 1920-1942 Figure 11. 60 60 COMMERCIAL BANK DEPOSITS (billion dollars)
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
35000 35000 NUMBER OF BANKS (millions) 30000 30000
25000 25000
20000 20000
15000 15000
10000 10000 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
100 100 TOTAL COMMERCIAL BANK ASSETS (LIABILITIES) (billion dollars) 90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
yardeni.com 40 40 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Source: Financial Markets & Institutions, Series X 410-419 and Banking, Series Y 580-587.
Page 7 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com CPI & PPI: 1920-1947 Figure 12. 20 20 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: 1920-1947 (yearly percent change)
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
yardeni.com -15 -15 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Figure 13. 30 30 CONSUMER PRICE & PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES: 1920-1947 (yearly percent change) 25 25
20 20 PPI: Industrial Commodities (1982=100) 15 15
10 CPI 10 (1967=100) 5 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 -20
yardeni.com -25 -25 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 8 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Miscellaneous Figure 14. 3.8 3.8
3.6 TOTAL IMPORTS OF 75 COUNTRIES 3.6 1929-1923 3.4 (billion dollars, monthly) 3.4
3.2 3.2
3.0 3.0
2.8 2.8
2.6 2.6
2.4 2.4
2.2 2.2 T 2.0 2.0
1.8 1.8
1.6 1.6
1.4 1.4
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.0 yardeni.com .8 .8 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933
T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. Source: League of Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 1934, p. 51.
Figure 15. 500 500 DEPOSITS OF SUSPENDED COMMERCIAL BANKS: 1929-1933 (millions dollars, monthly)
400 400
300 300
200 yardeni.com 200
100 100
0 0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933
Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, September 1937, Table 13, p. 909.
Page 9 / November 4, 2016 / US Economic History: Great Depression Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Miscellaneous Figure 16. 8 8 DEPOSITS OF SUSPENDED COMMERCIAL BANKS (cumulative since January 1929, billions of dollars)
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
yardeni.com -2 -2 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933
Source: Federal Reserve Bulleting, September 1937, p.909, Table 13.
Figure 17. 38 38 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES* 36 36 (percent, annual data) 34 34 32 32 30 Nonfarm 30 28 28 Civilian Labor Force 26 26 24 24 22 22 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 yardeni.com 0 0 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
* Persons 14 years and over. Source: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Part 1.
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