Redbridge Decentralised Energy Masterplanning Study
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Intended for London Borough of Redbridge Document type Report Date 18th December 2012 London Borough of Redbridge Decentralised Energy Masterplanning Study LONDON BOROUGH OF REDBRIDGE DECENTRALISED ENERGY MASTERPLANNING STUDY LONDON BOROUGH OF REDBRIDGE Revision Final Version 6 Date 2012/12/18 Made by Anthony Riddle/ Olof Jangsten Checked by Soren Vesterby Knudsen Approved by Crispin Matson Description London Borough of Redbridge Decentralised Energy Masterplanning Study Ref Report 12199430275-141-001 Ramboll Hannemanns Allé 53 DK-2300 Copenhagen S Denmark T +45 5161 1000 F +45 5161 1001 www.ramboll.com Ramboll Energy 60 Newman Street London W1T 3DA T +44 (0)20 7631 5291 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. Introduction 7 1.1 Introduction to Decentralised Energy 7 1.2 Background and Policy Context 8 1.3 Report Aims 9 1.4 Outline Methodology 10 1.5 Layout of Report 11 2. Ilford Town Centre Heat Network Opportunity 13 2.1 Summary of Opportunity 13 2.2 Energy Supply Opportunity 22 2.3 Phasing Strategy and Implementation Plan 25 2.4 Economic Appraisal 25 2.5 Sensitivity Analysis 28 2.6 Implication for Project Procurement 30 2.7 Heat Supply Contribution 32 2.8 Carbon Appraisal 32 2.9 Route Identification and Risk Appraisal 32 2.10 Summary 34 3. Crossrail Corridor 36 3.1 Summary of Opportunity 36 3.2 Identified Network Opportunity 36 3.3 Energy Supply Opportunity 43 3.4 Phasing Strategy and Implementation Plan 44 3.5 Economic Appraisal 44 3.6 Sensitivity Analysis 45 3.7 Implication for Project Procurement 46 3.8 Heat Supply Contribution 46 3.9 Carbon Appraisal 46 3.10 Route Identification and Risk Appraisal 47 3.11 Summary 47 4. Ilford Town Centre And Crossrail Corridor Opportunity 49 4.1 Summary of Opportunity 49 4.2 Identified Network Opportunity 49 4.3 Energy Supply Opportunity 58 4.4 Phasing Strategy and Implementation Plan 58 4.5 Economic Appraisal 58 4.6 Sensitivity Analysis 60 4.7 Implication for Project Procurement 61 4.8 Heat Supply Contribution 62 4.9 Carbon Appraisal 62 4.10 Route Identification and Risk Appraisal 63 4.11 Summary 64 5. Goodmayes Outlier 66 5.1 Summary of Opportunity 66 5.2 Identified Network Opportunity 67 5.3 Energy Supply Opportunity 77 5.4 Phasing Strategy and Implementation Plan 77 5.5 Economic Appraisal 77 5.6 Sensitivity Analysis 80 5.7 Implications for Project Procurement 82 5.8 Heat Supply Contribution 83 5.9 Carbon Appraisal 83 5.10 Route Identification and Risk Appraisal 84 5.11 Absorption Chiller Option 85 5.12 Summary 87 6. Barkingside Investment Area 89 6.1 Summary of Opportunity 89 6.2 Identified Network Opportunity 90 6.3 Energy Supply Opportunity 94 6.4 Economic Appraisal 95 6.5 Sensitivity Analysis 96 6.6 Implication for Project Procurement 97 6.7 Heat Supply Contribution 97 6.8 Carbon Appraisal 97 6.9 Route Identification and Risk Appraisal 98 6.10 Summary 98 7. Procurement Issues 99 7.1 Considerations for London Borough of Redbridge 99 8. Barriers, Risks and Opportunities 104 8.1 Project Development Risk 104 8.2 Project Performance risk 106 8.3 Risks specific to Ilford Town Centre and Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor Projects 108 8.4 Risks specific to Goodmayes Outlier Project 109 8.5 Risks Specific to Barkingside Project 110 8.6 Generic Factors Associated with Heat Network Routing and Route Identification. 110 9. Existing and Future Supply Options Appraisal 112 9.1 Overview 112 9.2 Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor Project 112 9.3 Goodmayes Outlier 114 9.4 Barkingside Investment Area 115 10. Conclusions, Recommendations and Next Steps 117 10.1 Summary of Findings for Project Opportunities 117 10.2 Economic Appraisal of the Project Opportunities 120 10.3 Technical Viability and Barriers to Development 123 10.4 Recommended Next Steps to take the Opportunities Forward 123 10.5 Planning Policy Recommendations 126 10.6 Adoption of Local Development Order 128 10.7 Ensuring Correct Design Standards are adopted 128 10.8 Route De Risking 128 10.9 Future technology options 129 11. References 130 APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 Summary of Business As Usual Case And Future Alternative Case For New Developments APPENDIX 2 Heat Network Layouts / Concepts APPENDIX 3 Investment and Carbon Appraisal Assumptions APPENDIX 4 Summary of Heat Network Assets APPENDIX 5 Cost Plans And Carbon Trajectories APPENDIX 6 Summary of Heat Supply Contribution for Each Project APPENDIX 7 Linear Heat Density Indicators for Each Project TABLES Table 1: Summary of Connected Buildings - Ilford Town Centre Project – Cluster Project ................ 16 Table 2: Heat Demand by Customer Type – Ilford Town Centre – Cluster Project ........................... 17 Table 3: Summary of Connected Buildings – Ilford Town Centre Project - Fully Built Out Project ...... 21 Table 4: Heat Demand by Customer Type – Ilford Town Centre - Fully Built Out Project ................. 22 Table 5: Energy Centre location Options - Ilford Town Centre ...................................................... 24 Table 6: Key Economic Indicators - Ilford Town Centre Project ................................................... 26 Table 7: Carbon Emission Projections - Ilford Town Centre Project .............................................. 32 Table 8: Key Project Parameters - Ilford Town Centre Project ..................................................... 35 Table 9: Summary of Connected Buildings - Crossrail Corridor Project .......................................... 41 Table 10: Heat Demand by Customer Type– Crossrail Corridor – Fully Built Out Project .................. 42 Table 11: Key Economic Indicators – Crossrail Corridor Project ................................................... 44 Table 12: Carbon Emission Projections – Crossrail Corridor ........................................................ 47 Table 13: Key Project Parameters – Crossrail Corridor Project .................................................... 48 Table 14: Summary of Connected Buildings – Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor Project ...... 56 Table 15: Summary of Connected Buildings – Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor – Fully Built Out Project ........................................................................................................................... 57 Table 16: Key Economic Indicators - Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor Project .................. 59 Table 17: Carbon Emission Projections - Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor Project ............. 63 Table 18: Key Project Parameters - Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor Project ................... 65 Table 19: Summary of Connected Buildings – Goodmayes Outlier – Cluster Project ........................ 72 Table 20: Heat Demand by Customer Type – Goodmayes Outlier – Cluster Project ........................ 73 Table 21: Summary of Connected Buildings – Goodmayes Outlier - Fully Built Out Project .............. 75 Table 22: Heat Demand by Customer Type – Goodmayes Outlier - Fully Built Out Project ............... 76 Table 23: Key Economic Indicators - Goodmayes Outlier Project – Private Wire Arrangement ......... 78 Table 24: Carbon Emission Projections - Goodmayes Outlier Project ............................................ 84 Table 25: Key Project Parameters – Goodmayes Outlier Project .................................................. 88 Table 26: Summary of Connected Buildings - Barkingside Investment Area ................................... 93 Table 27: Heat Demand by Customer Type – Barkingside Investment Area – Fully Built Out Project . 94 Table 28: Key Economic Indicators - Barkingside Investment Area Project ................................... 95 Table 29: Carbon Emission Projections Barkingside Project ........................................................ 98 Table 30: Key Project Parameters – Barkingside Investment Area Project .................................... 98 Table 31: Opportunities and Risks - Private Sector ESCo Model ................................................ 101 Table 32: Opportunities and Risks - Local Authority Model ....................................................... 102 Table 33: Opportunities and Risks - Public/Private Sector Partnership Model .............................. 103 Table 34: Summary of Findings for Project Opportunities ......................................................... 120 Table 35: Required Electricity Prices to Achieve 10% IRR over 25 years ..................................... 123 Table 36: Heat Tariff Assumptions ......................................................................................... 145 Table 37: Heat Exchanger Space Requirements ....................................................................... 164 Table 38: Linear Heat Density Indicators – Ilford Town Centre Project ....................................... 186 Table 39: Linear Heat Density Indicators – Crossrail Corridor Project ......................................... 186 Table 40: Linear Heat Density Indicators – Ilford Town Centre and Crossrail Corridor Project ....... 186 Table 41: Linear Heat Density Indicators – Goodmayes Outlier Project ...................................... 186 Table 42: Linear Heat Density Indicators – Barkingside Project ................................................. 186 FIGURES Figure 1: Heat Demand Projections for the Identified Developments for connection in the Opportunity Areas .................................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: Heat map and network outline - Ilford Town Centre Project ..........................................