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Proceedings of the Symposium on Wildland Fire 2000, April 27-30, 1987, South Lake Tahoe

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Proceedings of the Symposium on Wildland Fire 2000, April 27-30, 1987, South Lake Tahoe United States Department Proceedings of the Symposium on of Agriculture Forest Service Wildland Fire 2000 Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station April 27-30, 1987, South Lake Tahoe, California General Technical Report PSW-101 The views expressed in each paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the sponsoring organizations. Trade names and commercial enterprises are mentioned solely for information and do not imply endorsement of the sponsoring organizations. This publication neither recommends any pesticide uses reported nor implies that they have been registered by the appropriate governmental agencies. Publisher: Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station P.O. Box 245, Berkeley, California 94701 November 1987 Proceedings of the Symposium on Wildland Fire 2000 April 27-30, 1987, South Lake Tahoe, California James B. Davis Robert E. Martin Technical Coordinators CONTENTS Preface ................................iii Management Response and Needs Adapting the Incident Command System to (what are we going to do about it?) ..47 Meeting and Conference Management The Wildland/Urban Interface in 2025 Delmer L. Albright ....................v Gary O. Tokle .....................49 Acknowledgments ..........................x Shared Resources Presented Papers ........................1 David B. Butts ....................53 Community Needs (What are Planning the Fire Program for the the problems?) ........................3 Third Millennium Community Fragmentation: Richard A. Chase .................61 Implications for Future Wild Fire Fire Danger Rating: The next Management 20 Years Robert G. Lee ......................5 John E. Deeming ..................66 The Intrusion of Human Population Managing Research for Success into Forest and Range Lands of Richard C. Rothermel ..............73 California Very Portable Remote Automatic Ted D. Bradshaw ...................15 Weather Stations Urban-Wildland Fire Defense Strategy, John R. Warren ...................79 Precision Prescribed Fire: The Great Basin: Wildland Fire The Los Angeles County Approach Management in the Year 2000 Scott E. Franklin .................22 James B. Webb .....................82 What Will the Western Wildlands Be Forest Fire Advanced System Like in the Year 2000 ... Future Technology (FFAST): A Conceptual Perfect or Future Imperfect? Design for Detection and Mapping Carol L. Rice .....................26 J. David Nichols and John R. Warren.85 Visual Impacts of Prescribed Prescribed Fire Versus Air Quality Burning on Mixed Conifer and Giant in 2000 in the Pacific Northwest Sequoia Forests David V. Sandberg .................92 Lin Cotton and Joe R. McBride .....32 Research Response and Needs Local Planning Considerations for (What do we need to know?) ..........97 the Wildland-Structural Intermix in Smoke and Air Resource Management-­ the Year 2000 Peering Through the Haze Robert L. Irwin ...................38 A. R. Riebau and D. G. Fox ........99 Forecasting, Forecasting Concepts for Future Large Fire Michael A. Fosberg ................105 Modeling Forest Fire Research--Hindsight and A. P. Dimitrakopoulos and Foresight R. E. Martin ......................208 C. E. Van Wagner .................115 CFES--California Fire Economics Assessing Subjective Preferences for Simulator: A Computerized System Future Fire Research for Wildland Fire Protection James. B. Davis ..................121 Planning The Fire Effects Information System Jeremy S. Fried, J. Keith Gilless William C. Fischer ...............128 and Robert E. Martin ..............212 Artificial Intelligence Applications Videodisc/Microcomputer Technology to Fire Management in Wildland Fire Behavior Training Don J. Latham ....................136 M. J. Jenkins and Fire Effects, Education, and K.Y. Matsumoto-Grah ...............218 Expert Systems An Expert System for Designing Robert E. Martin .................140 Fire Prescriptions Fire Behavior System for the Full Elizabeth Reinhardt ..............223 Range of Fire Management Needs Foam as a Fire Suppressant: Richard C. Rothermel and An Evaluation Patricia L. Andrews ..............145 Paul Schlobohm and Ron Rochna .....226 Interactive Papers with International Futuring Group Reports ................233 Focus ...............................153 The Futuring Process International Wildfire Emergencies: Delmer L. Albright ...............235 Management in the 21st Century Education and Training--Research and Julia V. Taft and Robert W. Mutch....155 Development: Wildfires and Forest Development Report of Futuring Group 1 .......237 in Tropical and Subtropical Asia: Anticipated Effects of Urbanization Outlook for the Year 2000 on Fire Protection in California's Johann G. Goldammer ..............164 Wildlands: Prescribed Fire and Fire Report of Futuring Group 2 .......241 Suppression Training in the Fire Organization and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for Administration: the Year 2010 Report of Futuring Group 3 .......243 James L. Murphy and Frank T. Cole...177 Using High Technology in Laser Ignition Device and Its Fire Management: Application to Forestry, Fire Report of Futuring Group 4 ........245 and Land Management Tactics and Equipment: Michael D. Waterworth .............182 Report of Futuring Group 5 .......247 Wildland Fire Prevention: Today, The Role of Prescribed Fire: Intuition--Tomorrow, Management Report of Futuring Group 6 .......249 Albert J. Simard and Linda R. Beneficial Use of Fire: Donoghue .........................187 Report of Futuring Group 7 .......251 An International Perspective of Fire Occurrence and Behavior Analysis: Wildland Fire 2000 Report of Futuring Group 8 ........253 R. L. Bjornsen ...................199 International Issues: Poster Papers .........................203 Report of Futuring Group 9 ........255 Evaluation of National Fire Management System's Escaped Fire Situation Analysis A. P. Dimitrakopoulos ............205 ii PREFACE Two years in the planning, the during the symposium. Use of the ICS also symposium on Wildland Fire 2000 was held provided the chance to familiarize those April 27-30, 1987, at Stanford Sierra Camp outside the fire service with its on Fallen Leaf Lake, near Lake Tahoe, structure and function. California. We first proposed the symposium in spring 1985 to Charles W. The logo for the conference was Philpot, who was then Director of Forest developed to represent three basic aspects Fire and Atmospheric Sciences Research of of wildland fire management: public the Forest Service, at the Conference on needs, resource management, and Fire Management--Challenge of Protection education/research. Because the and Use, in Utah. He became the first combustion and fire behavior triangles are supporter of the symposium. In addition well known, we used a triangle as the to the Forest Service, sponsors were the basis of the logo, with the three sides Bureau of Land Management and the National representing the three different aspects Park Service, U.S. Department of the of fire management. Interior; California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection; Lest it appear that this arrangement International Union of Forestry Research put the three groups at odds with each Organizations; the Society of American other, we made the triangle from a Moebius Foresters; and the University of band. Thus, the three groups are on the California. same face of the band, as one would find by actually tracing around it. Indeed, Many individual fire agencies have all three groups are on the same side of held futuring sessions to discuss their the problem, trying to reduce the negative particular problems and visions, so why a impacts of wildfire and to increase the symposium? Wildland Fire 2000 brought positive effects of fire use. together practitioners, scientists, Understandably, all do not always see the educators, and the public from several problem in the same light, but then, one countries to consider the possible, of the purposes of Wildland Fire 2000 was probable, and preferred status of wildland to see each other's viewpoint more fire management and science in the year clearly. 2000 and beyond. The organizing committee thought the symposium could pull together The technical sessions began with the a broader range of persons with expertise needs of the public--the logical starting or concerns about the future of wildland point of the conference. The next session fire. On the basis of the attendance, it dealt with the response of management to succeeded. these needs, as well as the needs of management. The third session addressed The organizing committee was formed the response of the education and research using the Incident Command System (ICS) communities and their needs. The next with duties assigned as suggested in an session was devoted to nine individual organization chart developed by Delmer L. futuring groups, each of which outlined Albright of the California Department of its perception of trends, visions, and Forestry and Fire Protection (see his strategies for a specific subject area. paper, these proceedings). This The individual futuring sessions were organization worked well, implicitly considered by many to be a highlight of assigning duties to each member of the the symposium. The futuring session was organizing committee and providing a followed by one on interactive or structure for handling problems that arose international concerns, and the final iii session was a report by the individual Internationally, many problems are futuring groups. foreseen in the developing nations. Their
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