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Strategic Options Paper for Export Development

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Strategic Options Paper for Export Development Grenada National Export Strategy Review and Strategic Options for Export Development Project STRATEGIC OPTIONS PAPER FOR EXPORT DEVELOPMENT June 2015 Prepared by in partnership with Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 4 I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 6 II. Situational Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 6 Building Economic Resilience and Competitiveness in Small States ............................................... 6 Grenada’s Trade Profile ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Balance of payments ....................................................................................................................................... 11 Public debt .......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Exchange rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 12 Ease of Doing Business ................................................................................................................................... 13 III. Priority options for further intervention in Export Development: Assessment of Lead Sectors ................................................................................................................................................... 17 Qualitative Rationale for Lead Sectors Selection .................................................................................. 17 Methodology: Quantitative Diagnostic and identification process ............................................... 19 Tourism Services ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Creative industries..................................................................................................................................... 26 THE Ocean Economy ................................................................................................................................ 33 Agricultural products ............................................................................................................................... 37 Transport ...................................................................................................................................................... 42 IV. Export Supply Capacity Assessment ....................................................................................... 47 V. SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 49 VI. Action Plan Priorities for Firm Level Export Development ............................................. 51 VII. Government Objectives and Planned Donor Assistance ................................................ 52 VIII. Conclusions and Recommendations: Options for Export Development .................. 53 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 56 ANNEX 1- MATRIX OF SELECT MEDIUM TERM GoG PRIORITY PROJECTS BY DONOR COMMITMENT SOURCE ................................................................................................................................ 58 2 List of Figures Figure1: Economic Vulnerability and Export Instability, 2012……………………….……….8 Figure 2: Grenada Export of Services (2009 and 2012)……………………………………..….10 Figure 3: Benchmarking Grenada’s Export Performance…………………………………..….10 Figure 4: Export performance of main sectors as a % of GDP, 2013…………………....11 Figure 5: Public debt (2013, percent of GDP, 175 countries………………………………...12 Figure 6: Real effective exchange rates (based on CPI, index, 2005…………………….12 Figure 7: World Bank's Ease of doing Business ranking, 2015……………………………..13 Figure 8: Grenada Rankings on Doing Business Issues………………………………………..14 Figure 9: Enterprise Survey - Top 10 Business Environment Constraints……………..15 Figure 10: Female participation in business in the Caribbean region…………………..15 Figure 11: Percentage of firms with female top managers in the Caribbean……….16 Figure 12: Example of tourism cluster for Cairns……………………………………………….....17 Figure 13: Selection of Key Economic Sectors to Drive Export Strategy……………….18 Figure 14: National Export Portfolio by Products, 2009-2013……………………………….20 Figure 2 : World versus Grenada export growth in services, 2009-2012……………..21 Figure 3: Tourism in Grenada………………………………………………………………………………22 Figure 17: Creative Industries Sub-sectors…………………………………………………………….26 Figure 4: Income streams from the creative industry…………………………………………..26 Figure 5: Growth in demand for Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates (HS 03) from Grenada in 2014……………………………………………………..………………………………………………….. 33 Figure 20: List of importers for Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates (HS 03) – Imported value in 2013 and annual growth in value between 2009 and 2013………………………………………………………………..34 Figure 21: World imports of nutmeg, mace and cardamoms and top five exporters (2011)………………………………………………………………………37 Figure 22: World import of Cocoa and cocoa preparations, in value……………………...38 Figure 23: List of importers for Cocoa and cocoa preparations (HS 18) – Imported value in 2013 and annual growth in value between 2009 and 2013……………………………………………………………………………………………………..38 Figure 24: Ease of trading across borders in the Caribbean region.................................42 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document provides a Strategic Options Paper for Export Development in Grenada. The economy of Grenada remains largely anchored on traditional exports of agriculture (primarily nutmegs) and tourism, and there are limited incentives for the economy to develop a competitive dynamism built on other non-traditional sectors. These two pillars of the economy are showing signs of weakening, highlighting the long-standing competitiveness challenges that Grenada is facing. According to the IMF, Grenada’s share in the Caribbean tourism market has declined since 2007, as the recovery after the 2004-05 hurricanes was thwarted by the global financial crisis only reaching 66 percent of its pre-hurricane shares in 2014. Competiveness in Grenada’s tourism is mainly affected by the country’s real exchange rate, measured against its tourist origin markets. This exchange rate appreciated significantly following the global financial crisis and has since remained 13% more appreciated relative to the pre-crisis period1. For the nutmeg industry, despite a recent but fragile recovery, the country’s market share plunged from about 20% of world nutmeg trade in 2001 to about 3% after the hurricanes destroyed almost all of the crops. Grenada’s poor level of competitiveness is in part due to the poor performance of the country’s business environment, as well as the low labour productivity. Structural impediments have also contributed to weak competitiveness, including difficulties faced by Grenada’s agricultural products with regard to distribution channels, and weak performance of public services. New economic developments should be built on competitive advantage, entrepreneurship and the ability to adapt to changing economic conditions. The current medium term development priorities of the GoG are encapsulated in Grenada’s Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS), 2014 - 2018, completed in November 2014. The GPRS was developed through an extremely inclusive process of consultations, involving key stakeholders from the private and public sector as well as the civil society. The final document provides a detailed policy statement and plan of activities linked to a number of objectives under the key pillars of pro- poor growth, poverty reduction and development of the new economy. The export sector is seen as critical to growth and development, based on the potential for foreign exchange earnings and other exports driven developments. Inclusive growth in the lead sectors of agriculture and tourism is desirable, particularly in rural communities. In addition to the situational analysis of the macro-conditions and the business environment, this report presents a bottom-up approach to analysing the sectoral performances and the causes of weak development, with a view to identifying opportunities for growth in Grenada. By analysing the determinants of growth from micro-foundations, we are able to better identify the key drivers of growth, the sectors with the greatest potential and the policy mix best suited to promoting the sectors. The identified priority sectors are: Tourism Services Creative Industries 1 IMF (2014). IMF Country Report No. 14/196 - Grenada 4 The Ocean Economy Agricultural products Transport The rationale for selection of these sectors is further elaborated in this report. On May 29, 2015, a Validation workshop was held in Grenada to present a first draft of the Strategic Options Paper for Export Development. In general, stakeholders present endorsed the selection of sectors as the right choices to move
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