ReportNo. 6292-GRD Grenada UpdatingEconomic Memorandum Public Disclosure Authorized September5,1986 LatinAmerica and the CaribbeanRegional Office FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Documentof theWorld Bank

Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients onlyin the performanceof theirofficial duties. Its contentsmay not otherwise bedisclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS

Cur-encyUnit: East CaribbeanDollar (EC$)

Followingits creationin 1965, the East Caribbeandollar was t.ed to the pound sterlingat a rate of .1.00- EC$4.8. In July 1976,the link with sterlingwas broken,and the EC$ was peggedto the US dollarat the rate of US$1.00 = EC$2.70.

Since July 1976

EC$1.00 = US$0.37 or US$1.00 = EC$2.70 FOR OmCIL USEONLY

PREFACEAND ABSTRACT

This reportreviews recent economic develoiments and the main policy issueqin Grenada. (A more detailedanalysis of the development issuesand performanceis containedin "Grenada- EconomicMemorandum," ReportNo. 5606-GRD,May 10, 1985.)

The economyof Grenadaperformed better than expectedin 1935, with GDP growingby 3.7%, followinglow or negativegrowth rates in the previousthr'se yoars. This growthwas the resultof increasesin tourism, manufacturingand governmentservices. Externalgrants, mostly from USAID, amountedto US$29milliorn, equivalent to one-thirdof GDP. These grants coveredthe balanceof paymentsdeficit and financedthe publicsector investmentprogram in full. In order to adjustto the expecteddrop in aid flows,the Governmenthas adopteda comprenensivetax reformprogram and intendsto trim its currentexpenditures through a major labor retrenchment.A growth rate of 4-5% a year is feasiblefor the economy over the medium term and Grenadashould be able to sustainthe necessary borrowing,including a modest amountat non-concessionalterms, if exports continueto rise as in 1985,and if the publicsector succeeds in increasingits savings.

Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their officialduties. Its contentsmay not otherwisebe disclosedwithout World Bank authorization. This reportis based upon the work of an IBRDmission to Grenada in Harch 1986 led by Mr. N. R.rachandran.The mission includedMr. D. Yuravlivker(IBRD), Mis. Velasco (IBRD),Hr. Byam (WNM), Mr. Ramsaran (consultant)and Mr. Joefield-Napier(CDB). UNDP (Barbados)contributed to the preparationof the TechnicalCooperation Program included in this report. GRENADA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Pane COUNTRY DATA--GRENADA

SUMMARY AND MAIN ISSUES...... *...... i-iii

I. Recent Economic Developments......

II. Public Sector Finance Issues...... 2

II'. Balance of Payments......

IV. Stctor Policy Issues......

V. Public Sector InvestmentProgram (PSIP), 1986-88 ...... 8

VI. Technical Cooperation Program...... 11

VII. Medium-term Policies and Prospects,**#-# ......

ANNEX I: DevelopmentPolicyIssues...... 14

ANNEX II: Public Sector Investment Program and

Technical Assistance Programs ...... 17

ANNEX III: Macroeconomic Projections...... * ...... 38

STATISTICAL APPENDIX...... 4 Page 1 of 2

COUNTRYDATA - GRENADA

AREA POPULATION DENSITY 300 km2 98,000(end 1984) 820 per km2 Rat. of Growth:-0.X7 (from 1970-84) 480 p'r km2 of Arable Land

POPULATIONCHARACTERISTICS 1984 HEALTH1979 CrudeBirth Rate (per1,000) 80.8 Population per Physician 481.0 Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 7.9 Population per Hospital Bed 170.0 InfantMortality (per 1,000 livebirths) 10.8

INCOMEDISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTIONOF LAND OWNERSHIP(1971) X of NationalIncome, Highest Quintile X Owned by Top IOX of Owners 48.4 LowestQuintile X Owned by LowestIOX of Owners 1.0

ACCESSTO PIPEDWATER 1976 ACCESSTO ELECTRICITY(1978) X of Population- Urban 100.0 X of Population,total 7a.0 - Rural 77.0

NUTRITION1977 EDUCATION1979 CalorieIntake as X of Requirements 88.0 AdultLiteracy Rate X 97.0 Per CapitaPrA.ein Intake (gr./day) 67.0 PrimarySchool Enrollment % 108.0

ONP PER CAPITAIN 1984: US1880a/

GROSSDOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1984 ANNUALRATE OF GROWTH (X. constant prices) USS Min. X 1980-82 1983 1984 1985 (08t. (JP at MarketPrices 89.7 100.0 6.6 -2.9 2.0 8.7 Cross DomesticInvestment 29.6 82.9 84.6 -16.2 -13.8 12.0 Gross DomesticSaving -2.4 -2.7 CurrentAccount Balance -20.8 -22.8 Exportof Coods,NFS 40.3 44.9 -1.5 1.6 3.9 28.4 Importsof Goods,NFS 70.7 78.8 12.0 -4.4 -4.7 -15.4

OUTPUT1984 ValueAdded LaborForce (1981) US8 Min X Thousands X Agriculture 16.2 18.0 8.0 28.8 Industry 12.0 18.4 4.9 17.8 Other 81.6 68.6 14.9 t3.6 Total 89.7 100.0 27.8 100.0

CENTRALGOVERNMENT FINANCE

EC MIln. X of CDP 1985 1986 1982 1988 1984 (Prel.) 1982 1988 1984 (Prel.) CurrentReceipts 74.4 81.8 87.4 100.4 84.4 86.6 36.0 38.8 CurrentExpenditures 71.6 74.4 88.8 98.6 88.1 83.5 86.6 87.9 CurrentSurplus 6/ 2.8 6.9 1.1 1.8 1.8 8.1 0.4 0.7 CapitalExpenditures 103.8 92.2 67.9 80.0 49.2 42.8 27.9 81.4 ExternalBorrowing (net) c/ 68.9 67.3 50.0 55.7 29.7 32.1 2010 21.4

a/ Atlas method, revised national accounts. c/ Includoeexternal capital grant$. k/ Beforeexternal budgetary assistance. .. Not applicable. 12age 2 of 2

COUNTRYDATA - GRENADA

MONEY,CREDIT AND PRICES 19g0 1961 1962 1983 1984

Moneyand QuasiMoney 186.2 146.1 168.0 152.2 194.0 BankCredit to PublicSector 14.2 17.9 48.8 64.8 40.6 BankCredit to PrivateSector 84.4 87.8 89.7 89.0 80.2

Moneyand QuaslMoney as % of GDP 77.6 68.8 39.9 67.9 71.9 GeneralPrite Index 186.2 161.8 174.4 186.1 195.7 (1979-100) AnnualX Changs In: GeneralPrice Index 21.2 18.8 7.8 6.1 6.7 Bank Creditto Pub. Sector -28.7 26.1 172.6 12.3 -26.9 Bank Creditto Priv.Sector 16.7 8.4 2.7 -0.8 -9.9

BALANCEOF PAYMENTS(USS millions) MERCHANDISEEXPORTS (AVERAGE 1981-1988) 1981 1982 1988 1984 US1 mn. X Exportsof Goods,NFS 89.6 88.2 38.9 40.8 Cocoa 5.2 27.6 Importsof Goods,NFS 70.2 77.6 74.2 70.7 Nutmeg 8.1 18.6 ResourceGap Bananas 8.4 18.1 (deficit -) -80.6 -89.4 -85.4 -80.4 Mace 0.8 4.2 FreshFruit 2.1 11.2 FactorPayments (net) 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -1.8 Clothing 2.1 11.1 Net Transfers 10.4 11.0 13.8 11.7 Other 2.1 11.2 Balance--Current Account -28.4 -88.7 -29.0 -20.8 Total 18.8 199.9

Net MLT Borrowing 7.6 9.5 14.7 8.8 Disbursement 8.2 10.1 16.2 6.8 EXTERNALDEBT, DECEMBER 81. 1984 Amortization 0.7 098 1.1 8.0 USIMIn. PublicDebt, incl.Guarantoed !/ 48.2 OfficialGrants 12.6 16.9 10.1 24.8 Non-GuaranteedPrivate Debt - Other Capital(Not) 1.8 4.8 2.6 .6 TotalOutstanding & Disbursed - OverallBalance -8.6 -3.6 -2.8 8.7

DEBTSERVICE RATIO FOR 1984!I /

Public Debt, ncl. Guaranteed 18.0 Non-guaranteedPrivate Debt TotalOutstanding A Disbursed -

RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDALENDING (April 1985) mIn. USS):

IBRD IDA SinceJuly 1976 US81.00= ECS2.70 1.00 * US80.87 Outstanding,nl. Undisbursed 6.0

I/ncludes debt due to IMF. / Ratioof debtservice to exportsof goodsand non-factorservices. .

SUMMARYAND MAIN ISSUES i. The Grenadianeconomy continued to recoverin 1985,with GDP growthestimated at 3.7%, up from 2% in 1984. The main sourcesof growth were tourism,manufacttring and governmentservices. Consumerprices rose by 2% in 1985, about one-halfthe rate for 1984. The level of unemployment remainshigh, around25-27%, and the problemis acute amongwomen. The Government'sstrategy is to increasethe absorptionof workers in the operationof hotels,in small farms and in lightmanufacturing industries. ii. The fiscaloutturn for 1985 shows a small surpluson the current accountand an overalldeficit of EC$58.7million (23% of GDP), compared with a deficitof EC$38.2million for 1984. This largerdeficit is attributableto lower currentbudgetary grants and highercapital expenditures.For 1986 an even largerdeficit is projected--EC$82.8 million--largelyas a resultof a rise in capitalexpenditures. An unfinancedgap of about EC$20 million is likelyto emerge,and the problem could persistin the medium term, given the expectedscaling down of USAID budgetaryassistance. How expenditureswill be restrainedto meet this contingencyis one of the centralissues in Grenada. iii. The highlightof the 1986 budget is the far-reachingreform of the tax system,with the repealof most existingtaxes, including the income tax. This reformis based on an extensivestudy of governmentrevenues. Its objectiveis to improvethe resourcemobilization of the public sector. Substitutingfor the abolishedtaxes, a value-addedtax, a companylevy and a modifiedland value taxes have been introduced,but the coverageof these new taxes is not fully determined. Exemptions,most notablyfor hotels, are likelyto contributeto a revenueshortfall; more exemptionswould clearlyerode the revenuebase further. In that case, the financinggap could be over EC$25 millionin 1986. Moreover,the financinggap could be even largerif the Governmentdoes not implementits internal reorganizationplan, the savingsfrom which are alreadyincluded in the budget. There is an urgentneed to monitorfiscal performance and take remedialmeasures if the reformeffort is to be successful. In the area of state enterprises,continued progress is neededin the divestitureof selectedenterprises. In the key publicutilities--water, electricity and telephone--acow-ion problem is their rate structure. The peak-loadpricing principleshould be appliedas widely as possibleto rationalize consumptionand providefor furtherexpansion of the system. In telephone and water supplyservices, there is a need for increasedmetering of consumers. iv. Grenada'sbalance of paymentscontinues to be characterizedby a persistentdeficit in the currentaccount (30% of GDP in 1985),and it is still being sustainedby relativelyhigh levelsof officialgrants. These are, however,expected to declinein the years ahead,a trend that will call for a compensatingrise in export earningsand tourism,in current transfersand in privateforeign investment. Grenada's foreign exchange and importlicensing system have been increasinglyliberalized. However, - ii - the protectiongiven to domesticindustries through quantitativ restrictionson importscould be furtherreduced. v. At the end of 1985, Grenada'sexternal debt stood at US$47.5 million,equivalent to 922 of exports. Debt serviceobligations wete 20% of exportsand 28% of currentrevenues. Arrearsir externalpayments increasedto US$3 millionat the end of 1985. With debt service obligationsamounting to over a quarterof revenues,the Governmertremains cautious in contracting additional external public debt. vi. The prospectsfor the traditionalcrops--nutmeg, mace, bananaand cocoa--arepromising from the productionside. While the pricesof nutmeg and mace are likelyto come down after risingsharply in late 1985 and early 1986, the pricesof bananaand cocoa are expectedto remainconstant in real terms. The effectiveappreciation of Grenada'scurrency by about 40% between 1980-85,largely because of the appreciationof the US dollar, had disincentiveeffects on local producers. Tais problem,however, has been partiallyreversed over the last six months. The repealin March 1986 of the exportduties on these crops is also expectedto stimulate production. This underlinesthe urgencyof measuresto improve agriculturalproductivity and ior an appropriateincomes policy in order to sustainGrenada's international competitiveness. Agriculture continues to be afflictedby a shortageof labor. However,a promisingproject is the developmentof model farms,which is expectedto open up additional economicopportunities in the agriculturalsector. The model farms project shouldbe strengthenedand, if possible,accelerated. vii. The functionsof the Marketingand NationalImport Board ought to be reorganizedand strengthened.The supplyof equipmentto boost the productionof fruitsand vegetablesshould be increased. Producer associationsin nutmeg,cocoa and bananasshould streamline their organizations,reduce their operatingcosts further,offer increasing returnsto producers,and adopt a more aggressiverole in marketing. The possibilityof processingtheir productsand developingspin-off industries shouldbe activelypursued. Fishinghas particularlygood potential,but needs improvedmarketing, institutionsl support, training of fishermenand introductionof bettermethods and techniques.Moreover, the rationalefor price controlsfor fish needs to be reviewed. viii. Tourismfared quite well in 1985,with long-stayvisitors increasingby 34%. The openingof the RamadaRenaissance Hotel (186 rooms) in March 1986 boostedthe numberof availablerooms t.'about 500, an advancethat eased the major constraintto the developmentof the industry. There are plans for the constructionof severallarge hotels,but financing problemsmay delay the start of these projects. A physicalplan for tourismdevelopment needs to be completedas early as possible. Promotion and marketingought now to be top prioritiesin the developmentof tourism, as shouldthe pollutionproblem of the Grand Anse beach. Work will start next year on a temporarymeasure to alleviatethe pollutionproblem, but financingfor a centraltreatment plant, at an estimatedcost of about EC$30 million,has not yet been found. - iii - ix. Expendituresunder the PublicSector Investment Program (PSIP) in 1985 were financedentirely from foreignsources and amountedto EC$80 million,or 75% of the projectedtotal. The reasonsfor the shortfall includeshortage of local financialresources, inadequate project preparation,donor administrativedelays and shortagesof construction materials. For 1986-88,the Governmenthas proposeda public sector investmentprogram of EC$287million. Lack of financingand inadequate projectpreparation, however, cast doubt on the abilityof the Government to carry out this programin full. The missionestimates that a programof EC$220million is all that may be feasible. The annuallevel of expenditurein the 1986-88program would thus be less than in 1985. To improveimplementation of publicsector investment,the Ministryof Finance is planningto establisha unit for preparation,prioritization and selectionof projects. This is of high priorityand shouldbe set up as soon as possible. x. High levelsof public investmenthave hithertonot resultedin correspondinglyhigh rates of economicgrowth. Insufficientattention was often paid to post-implementationissues, such as adequateprovisions for road maintenancein the recurrentbudget (e.g. funds budgetedfor maintenancehave been divertedfor other purposes),insistence on cost recoveryprinciples for public enterprisesthrough appropriate rate structures,and reductienof the accountsreceivables. It is essential that publicenterprises be self-sustaining,rather than imposingadditional claimson budgetaryresources or on domesticbanking. xi. The Governmentis projectingeconomic growth of 4-5% a year over the next five years. The mission'sestimates suggest that these targets are feasible,provided the economyfaces no majcc externalshocks and the policyand sectorissues outlined above are satisfactorilyaddressed. The heavy dependenceof the economyon externalmarkets and on tourismsuggests that there could be considerablevariations in the growthrate from one year to the next. Therefore,progressive diversification of the economy shouldbe a key objective. The Governmentis consciousof the high prioritythat needs to be accordedto a reformprogram. The mission's scenarioenvisages the sourcesof growthto be: agriculture,tourism and manufacturing.Continued expansion of the basic economicinfrastructure shouldprovide further stimulus to their growth. xii. The expectedfalling off of foreigngrants should be compensated by a correspondingrise in domesticsavings, given the improvedpolicy framework. To facilitatethis shift,appropriate instruments for mobilizingadditional domestic savings will need to be explored. With economicgrowth expectedto occur in those sectorswhich are major sources of foreignexchange and strengthcningof the economy'scapacity to carry additionalexternal debt, Grenadacould servicea modest amountof foreign borrowingon nonconcessionalterms in the mediumterm. I. RecentEconomic Developments

1. The Granadianeconomy performed better thasu expected last year. Real GDP grew by an estimated3.7% in 1985, after fallingby nearly3% in 1983 a d risingby 2% in 1984 (Table1). The leadingsector in this recoverywas tourism;its value added increasedby 23% ia 1984 and by 34X in 1985. The numberof visitorsby air as well as by sea increasedsharply in 1985. Of crucialimportance to this sector is the new airportat Point Salineswhich was completedlast year. The other two sectorscontributing to GDP growthwere manufacturing,whose value added increasedby nearly 20% in 1985 after decliningby over 10% or more in the previoustwo years,and governmentservices, which grew by about 11% in 1985, almosttwice as fast as in 1984. On the other hand, productionin agriculture,the largest sectorof the economy,fell by about 10%, mainlybecause of the poor performanceof traditionalcrops.

Table 1: SELECTEDECONOMIC INDICATORS (AnnualPercentage Chan&es)

Est. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Real GDP at Market Prices 8.0 0.6 -2.? 2.0 3.7 of which: Agriculture 15.3 -13.7 2.2 0.2 -10.2 Hotelsand iRestaurants 0.0 -4.1 4.2 23.0 34.1 Wholesaleand RetailTrade -2.0 6.4 -3.8 1.6 1.9 Manufacturing 33.7 13.0 -10.0 -13.7 18.8 Construction 29.2 8.9 -20.1 1.6 1.6 GovernmentServices 1.1 0.8 0.0 6.4 11.2 GDP Deflator 9.5 6.8 6.0 7.3 3.4 Exportsof Goods and NFS 0.0 -3.5 1.6 3.9 28.0 Importsof Goods and NFS 16.4 10.5 -4.4 -4.7 15.4 ExternalGrants -1.6 27.2 -36.5 143.6 17.5

Source: StatisticalAppendix Tables.

2. The retailprice index rose by an estimated2% in 1985, about one- half the 1984 rise. Given the opennessof the Grenadianeconomy, the low increasein pricesreflected the slowdownin world inflationas well as the appreciationof the US dollar,to which the EC dollar is pegged. At the same time, there are price controlson many goods that affectthe price index: the controllist containsabout 100 items,mostly basic foods, clothingand buildingmaterials. With the exceptionof fish and beef, which are produceddomestically, all the controlitems are imported. The pricesof basic goods are controlledin order to prev*ntdeterioration in the purchasingpower of wages,which are quite low to start with: in agriculture,for example,the dailywage paid to workers (stipulated minimumwage) is EC$11.50for men and EC$10.50for women. Urban wages, as well as wages in the publicsector, are higher;public sectoremployees got a 11.5% increasein 1984 and have an outstandingclaim for a 30% increase for 1985 and 1986. The rate of unemploymentis estimatedto have declined in 1985, but it was still relativelyhigh, at about 25-27%. II. PublicSector Finance Issues

3. 'otwithstandinga substantial improvement in the currentbalance in 1980-83,the overalldeficit of the public sectordoubled from 22% of GDP in 1980 to 45% of GDP in 1982,mainly because of the constructionof the new internationalairport (Table 2). An increasingshare of this deficitwas finAncedby domesticand foreigncredit; consequently, by 1984 the debt serviceamounted to one-thirdof currentexpenditures. Expendituresrose fasterthan revenuesthat year becauseof higher interest paymentsand a largerwage bill that all but eliminatedthe currentsurplus of the CentralGovernment. However,because of a sharp drop in capital expenditures,its overalldeficit, excluding budgetary grants, narrowed to less than 30% of GDP in 1984. That deficitwas totallycovered by external grants,mostly from USAID. In 1985, the currentaccount had a small surplusas a resultof higherthan budgetedrevenues, mainly derivedfrom importtaxes; revenuesrose in spite of a reductionin the rates of export taxes,the corporateincome tax and the highestmarginal rate of the income tax. Currentexpenditures, on the other hand, were roughlyas budgeted,at a level higherthan in 1984 becauseof the wage bill and domestic transfers. The overalldeficit increased in 1985 followingthe rise in capitalexpenditures. It was covered,as in the previousyears totallyby externalgrants, 802 of which came from USAID.

Table 2: PUBLICSECTOR PERFORMANCE (Percentof GDP)

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

CentralGovernment CurrentRevenue 31.4 34.4 36.6 36.0 38.6 CurrentExpenditures 32.1 33.1 33.5 35.6 37.9 CurrentSurplus/Deficit -0.7 1.3 3.1 0.4 0.7 BudgetaryGrants 0.4 1.2 1.4 11.8 7.5 CurrentBalance -0.3 2.5 4.5 12.2 8.2 Other PublicSector (net) 0.0 1.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 CurrentBalance Public Sector -0.3 3.7 7.7 15.2 11.2

CapitalExpenditures 37.1 49.2 42.6 27.9 31.4

OverallBalance -37.4 -45.5 -34.9 -12.7 -20.2

Financing 37.3 45.5 34.9 12.7 20.2 ExternalGrants 16.9 19.6 14.1 16.6 23.7 ExternalBorrowing (Net) 19.4 10.1 18.0 3.4 -2.3 DomesticBorro-wing (Net) 1.1 15.6 3.2 -7.0 -2.6 Othe:cs(Net) -0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 1.4

Source: StatisticalAppendix Tables.

4. The highlightof the 1986 budgetis the comprehensivetax reform introducedthis year. This reformis based on an extensivestudy of governmentrevenues. The objectiveof the reformis to improvethe resourcemobilization of the publicsector. Most existingtaxes have been repealed,including the incometax, companytax, exportduty, stamp duty, excise duty, consumptionduty and hotel occupancytax. Only the common - 3 - externaltariff, the foreignexchange tax (at a reducedrate) and the motor vehiclepurchase tax were retained. The foundationof the new systemis a new 20% value added tax (VAT),supplemented by a land tax, a petroltax, and a companylevy. The VAT, which has a zero rate for basic necessities, is projectedby the authoritiesto produceover EC$42 million in 1986, about 40% of currentrevenues, which are budgetedat EC$108million. However,there is still some uncertaintyregarding the scope.exemptions and administrationof the tax. For example,hotel room chargeshave been exempt from the VAT, for a EC$6 million loss in revenue. The Government also loweredthe base for the companylevy, and discussionis ongoingabout the final versionof the land tax. Therefore,tax revenuesin 1986 are likelyto fall shortof the budget figuresby at least 10%, a gap that will resultin a deficiton the currentaccount. The Governmentis tryingto hold down currentexpenditures in anticipationof a declinein the budgetarysupport provided by USAID. Currentexpenditures could be within the budget limitsif the study by Organizationand Management,Inc. (O&M) on the reorgan!7ationof the publicsector is implementedas planned. This qtudy concludesthat 1,150 filledposts (of the present6,520) and another 823 unfilledposts in the civil serviceare redundantand shouldbe abolished. The estimatedsavings from this retrenchment,about EC$13 million,have alreadybeen incorporatedinto the 1986 budget.

5. There are 29 publicenterprises in Grenada. The two government- owned banks accountedfor nearly60% of assetsand over 50% of the profits of the public enterprisesin 1984. The telePhonecompany provides 3,600 linesand has outstandingrequests for about 2,300more. A major project to digitalizethe system,at a cost of US$11-12million, to be financed mostly by Canadianagencies, will start shortly. Digitalizationwill improveservice and allow the meteringof consumerswho now pay only flat rates. The provisionof electricityimproved substantially in the last year; and when a new generatorarrives in September,installed capacity will reach 9.4 MWs--enoughto satisfythe currentdemand of 8.6 MWs at peak. Tcansmissionlosses are, however,high--about 13%. All consumers are now metered. The electricitycompany registered profits in 1985, partlybecause of the declinein oil prices (nearly30% of Grenada'soil importsgo into the company'sfuel consumption).About half the population has electricity,and the companyplans to expandrural electrification. The water supplysystem is old and plaguedwith losses,and falls shortof satisfyingdemand, particularly in the dry season. Only a part of the consumtersare metered,with the rest paying flat rates. Repairingthe system,as well as the Concordwater project,are the top priorities.or this sector. A problemcommon to all three utilitiesis the rate stri:eture.The peak-loadpricing principle should be appliedas widely as possibleto zationalizeconsumption and providefor the furtherexpansion of the system.

6. A plan for the privatizationof public enterprisesis to be implementedthis year, followinga cabinetdecision in November1985. The plan goes beyond the singlecriterion of ownershipand includestwo addi- tionalcriteria for the classificationof publicand privateenterprises: managementand responseto market signals. These three criteriagenerate a multidimensionalrange, allowing more flexibilityin the treatmentof each particularcase. Of the 29 publicenterprises, 11 will be sold to the privatesector, the Government'sholdings in 2 others (commercialbanks) - 4 - will graduallybe offeredto the public,and 7 enterprisesare to be convertedinto statutorybodies, whereby the Governmentretains ownership but the entities'operations follow market rules. The three utilitieswill remainunder governmentownership but will hire outsidemanagement, while two enterpriseswill remaintotally under governmentcontrol. The fate of the remainingfour has yet to be determined. Implementationof this plan is expectedto help trim the publicsector and at the same time improvethe efficiencyof the servicesprovided by these enterprises.

III. Balanceof Payments

7. Grenada'sbalance of paymentsimproved substantially in 1983-84, especiallyin comparisonwith the deficitin the currentaccount of the balanceof payments,which doubledto over 40% of GDP in 1980-82. That deteriorationresulted from the declinein the pricesfor cocoa and nutmeg, a drop in tourismand a sharp increasein imports,partly because of the constructionof the new airport. The situationstarted to improvein 1983, as paymentsfor Cuban laborworking on the airportdropped, and zontinued to get betterin 1984,as investment-relatedimports dropped further while receiptsfrom tourismrose. In 1984, the currentaccount deficit was equivalentto 23% of GDP, about one-halfof the exportsof goods and non- factorservices. Externalgrants rose by 150% to nearlyUS$25 million in 1984 (Table3), mainlybecause of the large inflowof assistancefrom the US followingthe 1983 intervention.These grants,which increasedeven furtherin 1985, allowedGrenada to cut its externalborrowing sharply and make substantialrepayments to the ECCB and IMF.

Table 3: BALANCEOF PAYMENTSSUMMARY (US$ Millions)

Est. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Exportsof Goods and NFS 39.6 39.6 38.2 38.8 40.3 51.6 of which: Tourism 20.1 15.1 14.3 14.6 17.8 23.8 Importsof Goods and NFS 60.3 70.2 77.6 74.2 70.7 81.6 ResourceBalance -20.7 -30.6 -39.4 -35.4 -30.4 -30.0

FactorServices and Transfers 7.4 5.4 5.6 6.0 10.1 0.6 CurrentAccount Balance -13.3 -25.2 -33.8 -29.4 -20.3 -29.4

OfficialGrants 12.7 12.5 15.9 10.1 24.6 28.9 PublicBorrowing (Net) 1.3 7.3 9.5 14.1 3.8 0.5 Disbursements 1.8 8.0 10.1 15.2 6.8 4.6 Amortization 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 3.0 4.1 PrivateInvestment 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.5 Other a/ -0.6 1.8 2.9 0.1 -2.2 -1.9

OverallBalance 0.1 -3.6 -3.6 -2.6 8.7 0.7 aI/ IncludesSDR allocationsand errorsand omissions. Source: StatisticalAppendix Tables.

8. After five years of almostcontinuous decline, the value of merchandise exportsrose by 35% in 1985, largelybecause of an increasein the volumeof exports. Both traditionaland nontraditionalexports increased. In particular,following production problems in Indonesia,the pricesof nutmeg and mace more than doubledbetween October 1985 and March 1986, and Grenadawas able to sell all of its large accumulatedstocks. Exportsof fresh fruitsand vegetablescontinued to rise, reachinga level four times higher than that in 1982, and therewas improvementin manufacturingexports. However,since importsincreased by 15% in 1985, the resourcebalance did not change.

9. Severalmeasures were taken in the last two years to liberalize the foreignexchange and trade regimes. The requirementthat foreign exchangeremittances be approvedby the Ministryof Financewas removedfor all documentedimports, the limitson purchasesof foreignexcharge were raised,and both residentsand non-residentswere allowedto open foreign currencyaccounts at local commercialbanks. Furthersteps were taken as part of the comprehensivefiscal reform in March 1986: the tax on foreign exchange,for example,was reducedfrom 5% to 2%; and althoughthe Common ExternalTariff stipulated by CARICOMwas retained,the stamp duty on importswas repealedand replacedby the VAT. As for quantity restrictions,there are 50 items that still requireimport licenses accordingto end-use. Regardingexport promotion, export duties on traditionalcrops, which had been cut from 20% to 15% in May 1985, were completelyabolished in March 1986. This step, by increasingreturns to growers,is expectedto bring about a rise in the productionand exportsof traditionalcrops.

10. Grenada'sexternal debt grew more than threefoldin 1981-83,from US$14.4million (36% of exports)at the end of 1980 to US$48.4million (125% of exports)at the end of 1983. This sharp increasein indebtedness reflectsdisbursements of both concessionaryand commercialloans for the airportand other projects, Commercialloans, which were negligiblein 1980, accountedfor nearly30% of total debt in 1983. This shift brought about a sharp increasein debt servicepayments, and the debt serviceratio rose frem 7% in 1983 to 18% in 1984. Total outstandingdebt stayed fairly -constantin 1984 and 1985, since large inflowsof US aid coveredthe balanceof paymentsdeficits. The estimatedoutstanding debt at the end of 1985 was US$47.5million (92% of exports),and the debt servicepayments that year amountedto US$8.3million (16% of exportsand 22% of current revenues). Grenadaalso fell into arrearsin its contributionsto regional and internationalorganizations, and therewere delaysin repayingthe debts that the Governmentwas seekingto reschedule.Arrears at the end of 1985 are estimatedat US$3 million.

IV. SectorPolicy Issues

11. The Government'sdevelopment strategy identifies agriculture and tourismas the leadingsectors of the economy,but it also encourages manufacturingand stressesthe expansionof infrastructureas a necessary conditionfor growthin all sectors. A growthrate of 4-5% is targetedfor the economyover the next five-yearperiod. The main productivesectors are expectedto show higher growthfor 1986-90because of specificprojects and the continuingstrengthening of basic infrastructure.The incentives embodiedin the recenttax reformare likelyto improvethese growth prospects.

12. Agriculture.The prospectsfor traditionalcrops have improved. They have been sufferingfrom decliningyields attributable to marketing - 6 -

difficulties(nutmeg), poor harvestingpractices (nutmeg and mace), the maturationof plants (cocoaand banana), poor sanitationof fields (cocoa and banana)and a shortageof labor. Furthermore,the effective appreciationof Grenada'scurrency by about 40% in 1980-85,largely the resultof the appreciationof the US dollar,had a disincentiveeffect throughlower pricespaid to local producers. This appreciation,however, has been partiallyreversed over the last six months,and the recent repeal of the export dutieson these cropsshould also stimulateproduction. Moreover,while the pricesof nutmegand mace are likelyto come down after risingsharply in late 1985 and early 1986,the pricesof bananaand cocoa are expectedto remainconstant in real terms. The volumeof nutmex in 1985 was about 5 m lb.; betterharvesting practices alone could increase productionby about 20%. As mentionedabove, the price of nutmeg rose by about 150% from October 1985 tc March 1986, and Grenadawas able to sell all its accumulatedstocks.

13. The cocoa industryis likelyto undergoa major reorganization sponsoredby a new CIDA project. It involvesmerging the GrenadaCocoa Associationand the Cocoa RehabilitationProject (CRP) into a single GrenadaCocoa Corporation,a move that will end duplicationand bring more efficientadministration to the industry. The main problemof cocoa is that most trees are old. Therefore,since 1982, the CRP has been pursuing a major replantingeffort, including nearly 150,000 new plants in 1985 and an expected200,000 in 1986. Since plants reachmaturity only after5-6 years,the full impactof this efforLwill be felt only in the late 1980s. The currentproduction of about 4.7 millionpounds could, however, be boostedsubstantially within a relativelyshort periodof time by improved sanitationof fields.

14. Banana productionhas dropped,on average, by 10% per year over the last eight years becauseof decliningprices, maturation of plants,low levelsof applicationof fertilizersand pesticides,and poor post-harvest activities.Production in 1985 was 7,800tons, down from over 16,000tons in 1978. This decliningtrend may changeif fieldsanitation is improved (the Governmenthas allocatedfunds for this purpose)and if field packing is increasedfrom the currentlow rate of 24%. The World Bank projectfor agriculturerehabilitation and crop diversificationthat startedthis year includes,as one of its objectives,the rehabilitationof 400 hectaresof bananas(100 of which would be irrigated).This projectand the intensificationof extensionservices could help reversethe declinein bananaproduction.

15. The World Bank project,however, will have its greatestimpact on nontraditionalcrops: in five years,it could doublethe productionof sugar cane and coconut,further expand the productionof fruitsand vegetables,and developnew ornamentalplants and cut flowers. The project includesthe improvementof farm and feederroads, and is likelyto have a more generaland long-lastingimpact through training, expanded extension servicesand promotionof inter-agencycooperation.

16. As for the fishingindustry, its main problemis low productivity: the catch is about one-fifthof that in other islands,mainly becauseof inefficienttechniques, bad marketingand controlledprices. To deal with these issues,the Governmentis providingnew creditfor fishermenfor the improvementof boats and equipment,for the constructionof two storage centersand for the expansionof centersto improvethe distributionand marketingof fish. - 7 -

17. A generalproblem with the agriculturalsector in Grenadais a shortageof labor. This shortagecan be explainedpartly by socialand culturalfactors, which lead young peopleto abandonthe land, but is also directlyrelated to the lowerwages in the sector. The USAID-financed model farm project,whereby the authoritieswill split about3,000 acres of Governmentlands into 5-10 acre parcelsand hand them over Fo agricultural workers,may help keep young people in farmingwhile improvingefficiency and expandingproduction. The projectis, however,having a slow start. Althoughabout 1,500 acres were to be handedout in 1986,only one-halfof that targetmay be achieved.

18. Tourism. The year 1985 was a relativelygood one for tourism. The new internationalairport at PointSalines has providedfar better accessto the island in generaland to the Grand Anse area in particular. Stay-overvisitors (i.e., persons staying on averageeight days) rose by 34X to nearly39,000 in 1985, yacht calls doubledto 2,300,and cruise-ship passengersnearly tripled to 92,000. Tne openingof the RamadaRenaissance Hotel in March 1986 added 186 rooms and brcightoverall availability to roughly500 rooms,an increasethat relaxedsomewhat one of the major bottlenecksof the industry,namely, the lack of accommodation.The tourismdevelopment plan calls for a minimumof 900 additionalrooms over the next two years, and there are plans for four largehotel projectsof 250-350rooms each (Camahon,Carinex, Levera and CinnamonHill). However, financingproblems may delay the start of these projects,and they may have to be built in stages. Therefore,1990 lcoks like a more realistictarget date for reachingthat goal. Hotel const.uctionshould be accompani'dby a correspondingexpansion in infrastructure.In fact, roadsand electricity improvedsubstantially in 1985. However,more work is needed in these areas,as well as in water, sewerage,and telecommunications,to sustaina largerhotel capacity. In particular, largeairlines require a minimum numberof hotel rooms(l,000-1,200)to startregular service. Although BritishAirways is expectedto begin flyingto Point SalinesAirport before the end of the year and Air Grenadahas a flightto New York and Miami, directservice by a large US carrieris essentialif tourismin Grenadais to take off.

19. Promotionand marketingare now the top prioritiesfor the developmentof tourism. The Governmentis fully awareof the need to expandactivities in this field,and it intendsto promoteGrenada as a specialdestination in a campaigndirected at the upper segmentof the market. The campaignwill first targetthe Miami and Bostonareas in the US and then expandto Canada. A touristoffice is also going to be opened in Argentina. The Hotel Associationwill have to join in this effort, providingideas, people and finances. To improvethe competitivenessof the industry,the 7.5% occupancytax was abolished,and hotel roomswere exemptedfrom the new 20% VAT. The Governmentis also promotingthe developmentof shoppingfacilities and touristattractions in the island, for both stay-overand cruise-shipvisitors.

20. A key issue in the developmentof the tourismindustry in Grenada is the pollutionand erosionof Grand Anse beach - the main tourist attractionon the island- causedby the untreatedsewage flowing into the sea. A study sponsoredby the Organizationof AmericanStates (OAS) in late 1984 stressedthe urgencycf this problem. The governmentis fully aware of the need to do somethingabout it, and new hotelsare now required to build their own treatmentplants. With the help of CIDA, a two-step solutionis being considered: (a) as a temporarymeasure, extensionof the tunnelto carry untreatedsewage further out to the sea; and (b) as the permanentsolution, construction of a centraltreatment system for the St. George'sarea, to which the hotelswill eventuallyconnect. The main problemis financ4.ng the centraltreatment system, whose cost is estimated at EC$30 million. If financingis not available,the temporarysolution may remainthe permanentone, which would be detrimentalin the long term.

21. Manufacturing.Manufacturing may well be the most rapidlygrowing sectorof the Grenadianeconomy in the next few years. Mainly,this expansioncould result if seve:alinvestment plans by a numberof major US companiesseeking to take advantageof tax breaksby investingsection 936 funds in the Caribbeanthrough Puerto Rico materialize.Moreover, the fiscalreform, particularly the repealof the incomeand companytaxes, shouldprovide stronger incentives for new domesticand foreigninvestment. If the new investmentplans are realized,800 to 1,000 new jobs could be createdin manufacturingby the end of 1987 - doublingthe work force in this sector. The new activitieswill be concentratedin light manufacturing,textiles and agro-industry:products will includesurgical hats for exportto the US, bags for opticallens equipment,and pharmaceuticals.There are plans for three textileprojects - for shirts, gloves and jeans - and for several projects in agro-industry - a plant to processall excess fruitsand vegetables,a fish processingplant, and a mushroomfactory. Regardinginfrastructure for manufacturing,nearly 180,000square feet of new factoryspace in two projectsfinanced by CDB and by USAID are expectedto be ready beforethe end of this year.

22. ThdtSocial Sector. The 1986 budget includescuts in current expenditureallocations for the socialsectir: 12% for educationand 7% for health and housing,down from their actualexpenditures in 1985. The Ministryof Educationgets 14% of the total budget,compared to 16-18%in the other WindwardIslands. The Ministryis now conductingan overall reviewof school curricula,and intendsto emphasizevocational education and training,including a youth skill programsponsored by the private sector. Nearly 70% of childrenaged 3 through5 are enrolledin pre-school programs,and about 80% of childrenaged 5-12 attendprimary school, althoughattendance falls sharplyduring the periodswhen their help is reededin agriculture.The 1981 populationcensus shows a 97% literacy rate, but the rate of functionallyliterate might be actuallylower. In the area of health,sewage disposal is one of the main problems,while the two main diseasesare diabetesand hypertension.As for healthservices, the emphasisis on primaryhealth care,which is providedat 33 visiting stations(5 of them health centers)dispersed throughout the island. The fees for using the systemare low, so that healthservices are accessible to everyone. The housing situationin Grenadais poor: there is an urgent need for new housingas well as for housingrepairs. The Governmenthas a repairprogram for low-incomehousing, and is now consideringa project wherebygovernment technicians will help peoplebuild their own homes using mostly local materials. The cost of e.;chunit would be aroundEC$20,000, and financingmight be availablefrom domesticsources, such as the NationalInsurance Scheme.

V. PublicSector Investment Program (PSIP), 1986-88

23. Publicsector investmentin 1985was EC$80 million- 74% of the total projectedfor that year. The reasonsfor the shortfallranged from - 9-

shortageof local financialresources, inadequate project preparation and donor administrativedelays to shortagesof constructionmaterials, the latteraffecting mainly the road projects. Transportaccounted for two- thirdsof total public investment,with over 80% of its projected expendituresachieved. Agricultureaccounted for 10% of the total,with only one-halfthe projectedamount actually used becauseof delaysin major projects,e.g., AgriculturalRehabilitation and Crop Diversification, AgricultureSector Revitalization, and Model Farms. Financingof the PSIP came overwhelminglyfrom externalfunds: the breakdownwas 77% grantsand 13% loans. Even the local counterpartfunds (10% of the total)consisted entirelyof budgetarysupport provided by USAID. Thus, all expenditures for the PSIP in 1985 were externallyfunded.

24. The Governmenthas proposeda publicsector investmentprogram amountingto about EC$287million for the period 1986 through1988. The programincludes ongoing projects (defined as projectsfor which external financinghas been committedand locallyfinanced projects to be imple- mented in 1986) and new projects. However,the definitionof "new" is broad and includesmany projectsthat are still just conceptual. Approximately50% of the programis classifiedas 'ongoing." The new projectsthat are "ideas"only, may drop from the PSIP if they prove infeasible.

25. In terms of priorities,the 1986-88PSIP reflects,relative to 1985, a shift of capitalexpenditure toward the productiveand social sectors: the share of the main productivesectors (whichincludes th¢ provisionof input supplieaand infrastructurefor farmers,and the constructionof factoryshells) is doubledto about 25% of the PSIP, while the share directedto the socialsectors is tripledto over 20% of the PSIP. Infrastructurestill accountsfor the bulk of the program,but its share declinesfrom 75% to about 50%, and the emphasishas been shifted from transportto communications,water and sewerage. The Governmento however,has as yet given littleconsideration to the fundingrequirements and to a realisticassessment of resourceavailability. External financing amountsto two-thirdsof the total PSIP, and many of the new projectsfor which no sourcesof financinghave been identifiedare includedunder local financing. The lack of financing, as well as poor projectpreparation, cast doubt on the abilityof the Governmentto carry out its investment program.

26. The mission'sassessment is that the Governmentwill not be able to attainthe expenditurelevels targeted in the PSIP. The missionhas thereforemade some alternativeprojections of expenditures,essentially by rephasingthe implementationof the new projects(Table 4). Expenditures are projectedat EC$220million for 1986-88. The figurefor 1986would be about EC$84 million and consistof ongoingprojects only; it would decline to EC$63 million in 1987, as ongoingrehabilitation projects near completion;and it would increaseto EC$74 million in 1988, as projectsin water and seweragebegin. The mission'sprojections maintain the Government'ssectoral priorities as reflectedin its PSIP. In order to achievethe projectedlevels of expendituresfor 1987 and 1988, the new projectsin the pipelineneed to be furtherdeveloped. Doing so will entaildropping those projectswith relativelylow economicrates of return. - 10 -

Table 4: PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENTPROGRAM AND FINANCE (MissionEstimates)

1985 1986-88 (EC$'OOO) (S) (ECS'OOO) (2)

MaJor ProductiveSectors 9.798 12.2 55,176 25.0 Agriculture 8,329 10.4 37,656 17.2 Tourism 444 0.5 5,590 2.5 Manufacturing 1,025 1.3 11,930 5.3

Infrastructure 59,471 74.3 104,Z41 47.3 Transport 53,078 66.3 53,073 24.1 of whicht Roads 7,829 9.8 44,699 20.3 Communications 2,290 2.9 32,670 14.8 Water and Sewerage 1,679 2.1 14,355 6.5 Energy 2,424 3.0 4,143 1.9

Social Sectors 5,517 6.9 45.492 20.6 Education 1,585 2.0 17,410 7.9 Health 3,564 4.4 20,053 9.1 Housing 368 0.5 8,029 3.6

Other 5,256 6.6 15,722 7.1

TOTAL 80,042 100.0 220,631 100.0

Financing ExternalGrants 61,618 77.0 80,471 36.5 ExternalLoans 10,565 13.2 *69,348 31.4 Local 7,859 9.8 70,812 32.1

Sourcess Ministryof Financeand mission estimates(Annex II).

27. In the past, high levels of public investmenthave not been followedby correspondinglyhigh rates of economicgrowth. In many cases, insufficientattention was paid to the post-implementationmechanisms that insure maximum benefits from investments. These mechanismsinclude ade- quate provisionfor road maintenancein the recurrentbudget and improved managementof public enterprisesthrough the adoptionof appropriaterate structuresand the reductionof their accounts receivables.

28. Regardingfinancing, two-thirds of the PSIP is still externally financed,with the Governmentintending to borrow EC$6.7million from local commercialbanks to finance its contributionto the telephone rehabilitationand expansionproject, and EC$5.4 million from the National InsuranceScheme. Even after taking these local funds into account,there still is a financinggap of nearly EC$60 million, or about 252 of the PSIP, for the three-yearperiod.

29. The key featureof the way the PSIP is formulatedis the virtual absenceof project rankingand of a determinationof prioritiesin project selection. Currently,project selectionbegins with the submissionof project proposalsby the Ministriesto the Ministryof Finance. After furtherclarification by the Ministriesas to their nature, the projects are then listed in the PSIP. That is, all projectssubmitted to the - 11 -

Ministry of Finance are includedin the PSIP. To address this problem, the EconomicsDivision of the Ministry of Finance is developinga ranking system that gives differentweights to a number of factors(including employmentgeneration, skilled labor requirement,operation and maintenance costs, and location)in evaluatinga project.

30. Other issues regardingthe preparationof the PSIP are the need to place increasingemphasis on the implicationsof the program for current expendituresand the relativeshares of the PSIP to be carriedout by the Central Governmentand the rest of the public sector. Both the mission's projectionsand those of the Governmentreveal a significantshift in the executionof projects from the CentralGovernment to public enterprises. Based on the mission'sprojections, Central Governmentcapital expenditures,which accountedfor roughly88K of all capital expenditures in 1985, are expectedto declineto 55% by 1988. Care must be taken to insure that the shift of projectsto the capitalprograms of public enterprisesdo not result in their making increasedclaims on budgetary resourcesor on the domesticbanking system throughoverdraft facilities.

VI. TechnicalCooperation Program

31. The Government,with the assistanceof the United Nations DevelopmentProgram, has prepareda technicalcooperation program (TCP) for the period 1986 through 1990 with an estimatedcost of EC$18 million. The programconsists of ongoing and proposed technicalassistance projects, with the latter rankedby prioritywithin each sector. The program reflects the PSIP's sectoralpriorities (i.e., a concentrationon the economic and social sectors),as well as the urgencyof fillingsome crucial line functionswithin some ministries. In the agriculturesector, the TCP supportsthe attemptshighlighted in the PSIP to rehabilitate traditionalexport crops, to develop livestockand fisheries,and to pursue forestrydevelopment. Consequently,project-related technical assistance includesprograms to reduce crop losses caused by rodents,to provide technicalsupport for the developmentof a livestockprogram, and to undertakea feasibilitystudy on aquaculture. In other sectors,project- relatedtechnical assistance is geared toward assistingthe Governmentwith the implementationof projects includedin the PSIP. Examples include feasibilitystudies on quarry development,wind-generated electricity and water supply expansion.These project-relatedtechnical assistance programs in the TCP are necessarygiven the difficultiesexperienced with the implementationof the PSIP. The TCP is useful in that it provides a "survey'of the Government'smanpower requirementswith respectto both the implementationof major projects in the PSIP and to the daily provisionof essentialservices. In that respect,the TCP has revealedthat the flow of skilledmanpower needs is inadequateto meet current requirements. The Governmentneeds to closelycoordinate the TCP and ensure that it continues to reflect its developmentpriorities.

VII. Medium-termPolicies and Prospects

32. The medium-termeconomic outlook for Grenada is reasonablygood: the main productivesectors of the economy- agriculture,tourism and manufacturing- are expectedto grow substantiallyover the next five years, bringing the rate of growth of GDP to about 5% in 1987 and 1988 (Table5). The continuingexpansion of the basic economic infrastructure is setting the groundworkfor this growth. This outcome depends,however, on the absenceof major externalshocks and on the implementationof the policies and programsoutlined in this report. The heavy dependenceof the - 12 -

economy on externalmarkets and on tourismsuggests that there could be considerablevariations in the growth rate from one year to the next. Should the economybe subjectedto external shocks,additional policy responsesmay be needed includingsupplementary fiscal measures and stretching-outof public sector investments. Once the major infrastructure projects are completed,the direct role of the Governmentin the economy will decreasespublic investmentis expectedto declinefrom 301 of GDP in 1986 to about 202 in 1990. Concomitantly, the private sectorwill take on an increasingrole in domestic investment.

Table 5, SELECTEDMACROiCONOMIC PROJECTIONS

Act. Prel. 1984 1985. 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990-95

GDP Growth Rate 2.0 3.7 4.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0

% of GDP Investment 33.0 36.6 37.0 32.7 33.9 33.2 30.9 Public 28.9 31.1 29.4 22.5 22.8 21.2 17.3 Private 4.1 5.5 7.6 10.2 11.1 12.0 13.6 Gross DomesticSavings -0.8 4.8 5.5 4.5 7.2 8.6 10.9 Public Sector Savings 3.4 2.5 0.8 3.0 4.3 5.2 8.3 ExportsGNFS 44.9 53.9 59.0 60.9 65.3 69.4 77.7 ImportsGNFS 78.8 85.2 89.9 88.8 92.1 94.4 98.5 Resource Balance -33.9 -31.3 -30.9 -27.9 -26.8 -25.0 -20.8 CurrentAccount BOP -22.6 -30.7 -25.8 -21.9 -20.1 -18.9 -16.0 ExternalGrants 28.5 32.4 16.7 12.4 11.7 11.1 9.7 ExternalDebt 46.3 48.2 50.4 51.2 51.1 50.7 50.2 Debt Service 7.3 9.0 8.3 7.6 7.7 7.6 6.1

Debt Service/Exports 15.6 16.1 13.5 12.0 11.4 10.5 7.5 Debt Service/Curr.Rev.a/ 19.6 22.4 23.0 20.8 21.3 20.9 16.1

*/ C.ntral overnmnt. Sources: Ministry of Financeand missionestimate (AnnexIII).

33. In the short as well as the medium term, the dominant issue affectingthe balance of payments and the financesof the public sector is the expecteddrop in externalgrants. These increasedsharply after the US intervention,reaching US$29 million in 1985, but they are estimatedto drop by one-half this year and to fall furtherin 1987. The projections assume that beyond 1987 grantswill remain at roughly their 1980-83average level in nominalterms.

34. The currentaccount deficit is finar.cedby a combinationof grants, foreign investmentand externalborrowing. It is assumedhere that the averageterms for new borrowingare an interestrate of 62 and a repaymentperiod of 12 years,with 3 years grace. Externaldebt would then remain constantat roughly502 of GDP (Table5). Exportsare projectedto in rease rapidlyover the next few years as the agriculturalrehabilitation and diversificationprojects bear resultsand the new tourismand manufacturingprojects become fully operational. Consequently,debt service as a fractionof exportswill decline from 162 in 1985 to an averageof 7.52 in 1990-95. Thus, although the resourcebalance will deterioratefrom US$30 million in 1985 to US$40 million by 1995, even if externalgrants stay constantin nominalterms and Grenadahas to borrow to cover the balanceof paymentsgap, the debt burden on the economywill - 13 - still be manageable. It is Importantto point out, though,that the export projectionsare highly dependenton tourism revenues,the singlemost importantsource of foreignexchange to the economy. If merchandise exports and tourismrevenues turn out lower than expected,the foreign exchange gap will be larger,although this effectwould be partly offset by a lower volume of importsbecause of the resultingslower rate of economic growth.

35. For the public sector,unidentified financing for 1986 stands at EC$20 million if the shortfallin governmentrevenues is only EC$10 million this year (Table 6). However,the shortfallcould be larger becauseof difficultiesin settingup the VAT system and if the Governmentpermits further exemptionsthat erode the tax base. In that case, the financing gap could be over EC$25 million in 1986. Moreover,the financialgap could be even larger if the Governmentdoes not implementits internal reorganizationplan, whose savingsare alreadyincluded in the budget. For 1987 and beyond, the gap is also highly dependenton the public sector achievingthe volume of savingsassumed in Table 6. If these savings are achieved,then even if external grants remain at a level of US$12 million, unidentifiedfinancing of the public sectorwill decline from EC$43.5 million in 1988 to EC$35.6million in 1990 and to EC$25.2million in 1995.

Table 6: PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCINGREQUIREMENTS (EC$ Millions)

1986 1987 1988 1990 1995

Public Sector CapitalExpenditures 80.6 65.8 74.0 62.0 60.0 Debt Service 18.4 21.0 24.4 24.0 35.6 Amortization 14.0 15.4 17.6 15.4 21.6 Interest 4.4 5.6 6.8 8.6 14.0 FinancingRequirements 99.0 86.8 98.4 86.0 95.6 Sources Public Sector Savings 2.0 8.0 12.0 18.0 38.0 IdentifiedExternal 77.5 39.9 42.9 0 0 Unidentified 19.5 38.9 43.5 68.0 57.6

Source: Mission estimates.

36. Two types of uncertaintiesovershadow the future economic developmentsin Grenada: a) possible externalshocks and developmentsin externalmarkets; and b) the forcefulnessof implementationof Government's reform measuresand their overall effect. Regardingthe country'sexternal markets, there could be major changesin the price of nutmeg, bananasand oil, for example,or events affectingthe volume of tourism to the island. While these factorsremain exogenousand over which Grenadahas little control,they do emphasizethe need for the ongoing effort to diversify productionand exports to make the economy less vulnerableto these types of shocks. As to the Government'sreform measures,they should be implementedin full, particularlythose relatedto taxes, public sector organizationand public enterprises. Annex I which followssets out the key developmentpolicy issues in Grenada and the additionalreforms required. The outcomeof these reformsshould be monitoredclosely, and fiscal performance,in particular,has to be evaluatedcontinuously. If there is any deterioration,the Governmentwould have to act swiftlywith correctivemeasures to increaserevenues and lower expendituresin order to prevent a crisis that could underminethe prospectsfor economic growth. - 14 -

ANNEXI

DEVELOPMENTPOLICY ISSU.:S *lb-

pOIUW PLCY _ SIMI

A. The PubliciBcthr

1. Centrol Oornant Contain the groth of curront The 1t budge propose the mpl"nMt ts 6 tudy. Expenditure. expenditure. In order to adopticn of the co etAd an Increaee governmnt eavinga. the - .rganixatlon of the eo that a Iarger *hote of the ps+llc *ector, h*reby 1,10 PSIP cn ho finaned, filled peoa (out of 6,t 0) and another S20 uf; II led past VIll be bollild, for a

eavI ng of B m1*iIllicn.

2. Central Oovernmen a) llnttala an approprlite The l6 Budget Spch Imptent the tla pefeo to Revenues level of reenue, to annousned a coreheneive tax pled, Decide early en the Incree venent re ert repal l g e xe final verle3e; of the esany eavingeto help finance Including the incometax, and levy and h lad teax ad public inveetmnt. replacigv the with a so mxve forcefully to Implement b) Establish a tex system value added rtx (VAT). an etforce the VAT fully. that provide incentivee for privateinvetment and produ4tion.

S. Public Enterprisee a) Decide which enterpriee Zn Neovectr 182 the Cabinet aleent the Cabinetdecieion to kep under Pbl Iic decided an a gruroe of of ievether 182. rmrove the control and which to d;vewtitur* of 11 public efticleny of th. en(xrpriee divest. enterpriee (of the euilting reeining under vwernent i) lrov efficiency.te 29) and the conversion Of eontrol. **vile the util ty c) Ixprove the teriff another 7 to statutory bodies. ratee. structure.

U. Unomlojg na The rate of unepliymet Is The eophaei- on infraotructur Take further mrre to tim_ted at 25-276. The ag projects. *.g., reoa faeilitate privae invetaant. etruture hae casud the labor conetruction, ha increased Provid for the proper

force to increase facter than the gneration of nec jdo. mintece o Infretrctur, the totel P"Ioption and The te. reform end additional a I or-inteneive activity. feeter than the oconen'. The _esure. i il inersa.e the Place * pheaic on the We , reversal in net ruteard Incentivee for private Farc project to retiin youth migration ha put additional Investent. in agricultur. aerkere into the labor market during the Iaet two Yera.

C. i,llnce of Parymnt Production of traditional Several xamouree aere taken In Raviee me often the exports - banana, cooa, the laet teo year. to pr*tction givon to dometic nutmeg end mace - ha beeIn lbra l izs the fore Ign Indutrl I b regh declining for aeveral years exchange and trade reims. quantitoti- reatriction on oecaue of low prices, The reernt repel of the imports. A4pint a hiGh-level deteriorstion of suport: 'p export duty on traditlonal dc ;mitee to formlete and ovicee and low yielde. (n crop ic expected to pr-a* follow up on export etate. the icport aide, quot nd their *xort. Nol room differential tariffsdistort were *exeted frm th VAT to the allocation of reourcoe asks the Indutry seor and have an anti-exportbias. comptitive. - 16 -

1. Agriulture a) Decltining yields of Ongoingrehabilitation Accloerate implementationof traditional creps. projecte for cocoa and the odel Formproject. b) DivereIfiction of bananas. Export tax" on Coordinatethe extenson agrlcuitural producti a treditional crope abolished. srvice. provided by the and exports. Ongoingeffort to diversify different crop aeeociatione c) Shortage of labor, production toward fruite and and by the Ministry of vegtables. Expanded Agriculture. Improve the *xtension servics. DOsigned orgenization of the Model Fara proJect to hand producer/marketing over gvornent lands to aocietione. agricultural workers,

2. Tourism Lea than 40,000 long-stay The Ministry of Tourism Increse the resourcee visitor* cameto Orenedain eterted a eapaign promoting allocated to promotion and 18, va. over 100,000 to Grenadaa* a apecial sarketing, get the Hotel other islands. Promotion and destination. Hotel roomshave Amociation to participate marketing are now the top been exemptedfrom the VATto actively in the effort. The priorities of the industry, improve the optitiv of Governmt he to encourage With tec oening of the Ramda the industry. The hotel project so as to reach Rnalsance, there are about infrastructure supporting the 1000-ro target as soon 800 available room, still touriam, particularly roede as possible. Further work on well blow the 1,000-2,000 and lectricity, *mc improed infrestructure, particularly mark required by major 1, substantially in 1965. A teo- water end sewerage, ia carrierS to startdirect stage solution for the s"vase neceaary to support a larger esrviceto the islnd. The problem is beinl considered, hotelcapecity and protect the pollution problew of tho environment. GrandAns. beach ha. to be addressd.

S. Manufacturing The basicipediment to the The fiscl reformhas The Governmentshould continue developmentof manufacturing - ,ncrermdincentives for itsefforts to reduce the red attracting invetmnts - ha. I nve_tentand prod'uction. tspe confrenting new be" substantially overep. in The Governmenthas etroali med invetore. Further the last six onths, the procs for approval of developmentof infrastructure Infrastructure Is still weak, projects. Nerly 10,00 0 la essntial. The Governent "d there Is need for credit Sqare foet of tow factory could help producerstake for new entsrprises. The pace, In two proj ets advantageof ne export clothing industry was finaned by CB and UID, mrkets by providing seriowly dme"d by the *i II be redy by the end of informatin and edvice and by import restrictiomn i_posed 19r. A newMerchant Sank, to coordinating tho promotion of within CARICON. provide credit for growing Gronadianorods. tntarprie"e is being considered. - 17 -

ANNEX II

PUBLICSECTOR INVESTMENTPROGRAM AND

TECHNICALASSISTANCE PROGRAM N"JoR Oh6SINS PROJECTS AND SOURCEOF FINIUINr 1906 - 1998 rorAL ExTERAL. FINFNCING AICMERns coDaDTIUns oURAON cosr PROJECrS CECSOOM) CECSOO>) x Source Int. Rate RAort. Per. Grace Per. Est. Cos.. Est. Con FIXED INVEST"ENTS Econo.i c Services Agric., Forestry Fistiheries

Nir.beau rraining School 1300 1200 922 EDF, HIUOS,CIDA - - - 1962 1986 Grenade Farns Rehabilitation P321 5505 ?S2 CDs 4.0 15 5 1982 19i6 Banana Developmont 1511 960 642 UK - 25 7 1962 19B6 Cocoa Rehabilitation 19S 1 14916 83X CIDR - - - 1962 1990 Rrtisanal Fisheries 7095 5999 a5" IFRD; UIF 4.0; 2.0 15; 2.0 5; 5 1982 1987 Grenwille Market Rehab. 419 389 932 UK - - - 1984 I9s6 Rgric. Sector Revitalization 5303 5303 100l USRIO - - - 1984 1986 Agric. Rehabilitation and Crop Div. 1463? 13500 92X IDA 0.?5 40 10 1965 1990 Forestry Development II 324 324 1002 UK - 25 ?198 19G6 Moko Eradication II 486 486 1002 EOF - - - 19 86 1966 High Impact Rgriculture 568 568 1OOX USRID - - - 19B6 19066- Mwnufacture, hining & Quarrying ------Industrial Estates 4082 3699 912 COD 4.0 1S 5 1986 196? Factory Shells Refurbishing 959 959 1002 USRID - - - 19S5 1986 rouri sw rourist Attractions 816 ?06 W?m USAID - 1985 1986 Conwunications relephone Digitization Plan - CIOR 13500 13500 1002 CIOR -- - 195 19W relephone Digitization Plan - N.YEL 20820 13??0 662 Northern relecow 8.8 8.5 3 1965 1987 rransportation ______Port Oeveloprent 6844 6200 912 CDB; CIOR 6.5 15; - 5; - 1992 1986 Pt. Salinas Navigational Aids 101 101 1002 CIOR - - - 1985 19 Fare. Roads 3?28 8?0 232 EDF/STROEX - - - 1964 19B6 Eastern tain Road I 6585 3010 462 EOF - - - 198 1985 Infrastructure Revitalization - Roads 98?1 8100 822 USRIA - - - 194 198? Western Main Road I ?425 6?50 91X Coe 4.0 15 5 19965 198S Feeder Roads III 8?00 ?81? 902 Coe 4.0 15 5 1986 1W9? NRJOR OiMIwO PROJECTS FRH SOURCE OF FINACING 1966 - 1968 ------~~~~~~os------TOTRL------EERA.FINAN4CING------TRcms nm cOMTImNms otmann

PROJECTS CECSOOO) CEC$C00) 2 Source Int. Rate Amort. Per. Brace Per. Est. Co... Est. Con Power

Grenlec a88 *9 5822 W459 EI9 2.0 20 5 l9 BE 19896 Water

"a"b Cannes System - COB 4692 Am 91S Ce 4.0 15 5 1983 iSl5 Infrastructure Revitalization CUater) 2015 2015 1002 US0ID - - 1965 19go (len Cannes Supply Et.)> C138) (138) 100X CL.ek Detection) C168) (168) lOO1 CGrand Anse - Belmont Lines) Cl(1) C119) 100X Rural Water Systems I 1229 1229 1002 COBAHN - - - I965 1986 Other Economic Services

Central Garage Unit - CIDR 7084 6038 05X CIDR - - - 19S2 196 Social Services Education

School Rehab. (Infra. Rev.) 1890 1890 1O0Z USAID - - - 1964 1995 IFE Expansion 295S 550 19X EOF - - - 1985 1986 Library Expansion 610 50 952 EDF - - - 1985 1986 School Rehabilitation 500 500 100X CODSAH" - - - 1986696 Health and Seweage

Princess Rlice Hospital Repairs 450 450 lOOX CDB/09' - - - 1984 1965 Health Centres I 222? 2112 95Z C0DBHt - - - 195 1965 Health Centres II 285 2800 962 Sweden - - - 19SS 1986 New Nental Health Hospital 10530 10530 1002 USRIO - - - 19B5 196?

Housinrgo Pre-fab Housing 19?9 14?? 791 IVenausel 2.0 20 5 1905 196? SRENADA: NAJORNEW PROJECrS AND POSSIBLESOURCES u4 F!NANCINm 1986 - 1988 PROJECTS rorTL cosr EXrERNRL FINRNCING Source Int.Rate Rnort. Per. Grace Per. Est.Com.g Est.Coopi.

CECSOOO) (EC$OO0) (C) FIXED INVESTMENTS Economic Services Agric., Forestry & Fisheries

Lobster and Freshmater Fish Farning 2Z5 209 76Z FRO - - - 198? 18? Livestock Development 2930 2293 N8W UK - 25 7 198? 1989

ev-elopnent of Otster Seds 383 258 6?X FAD - - - 198? 1988 Model Far" Developn.nt 1980 1059 82X CD8;USRIO 4;- 15;- 5;- 198? 1989

Manufacturing ______Frequent* Industrial Develop"ent 1320 1320 100l USRID - - - 198? 198? Quarry Developnent 5000 5000 100l Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Asphalt Plant 1320 132O 100l USRID - - - 198? 198? Tourisw

Integral Center Fort George 7500 7500 100l Unknown - - - 1988 1989 "arquis Tourist Center 385 385 1OOZ China - - - 198? 1988 Esplanade Revitalization 950 850 100l Unknomn - - - 1988 1989 Central Vendors Market 300 300 1002 Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Bawboo Craft Oevelopnent 375 375 100l China - - - 1987 1988 Cawahagne Park Dev. *381 4381 10O Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Woodford Great House Lookout 110 110 100 Unknown - - - 198S 1989 rransportation

Eastern Main Rd.III 9599 7756 fl1Z EOF - - - 1"? 1989 Mest Coast Roads I! 7301 6536 90X COs 1 15 5 1988 1990

Road Rehab. I! 9958 9"30 95X USfID - - - 198? 1989

Power Renewal of St. Georges L. V. Systen 1056 1056 IDOX Unknown - - - 198 1988 Rural Electrification 1I 2389 2389 100I Unknown - - - 198? 1988 Water and Sewage ______Grand Rnse Morne Rouge Sewage 13230 12800 9ZX CIOR - - - 1988 1990 St. George Sewage 5000 5000 101% CIOR - - - 198? 1989 Rural Mater Sqstews III 9640 9640 4JZ Unknoun - - - 198? 1989 Replacewent of Main St .Georges 750 750 LOOz Unknown - - - 198? 1989 GRENROR: HIIJOR hEM PROJECTS RFM POSSIBLE SOURCES OF FIIN&CING 1996 - 1988 PROJECTS rOrTLCosT EXTERNRLFINANCING Source Int.Rate Rnort. Per. Grace Per. Est.Coam. Est.Conpl.

CECSO00) (ECSOOO) (Z)

Social Services

Health

Refuw-bish.ent of hedical Officers Otrs. 330 330 lOO1 UK - 25 7 198? 1998 Repairs to Lift - 'ieneral Hospital 118 118 lOO1 USRID - - - 1987 198? Nedical Store Hous and Man 5WS 5W5 103X UK - 25 ? 198 1988 Refurbishnent of General Hospital 500 500 1002 Unknown - - - 1988 1989

Education

Rebuilding of Z pro-prinarg schools 800 800 1002 Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Park Lane Tech.School Constr. 3000 3000 1002 Unknown - - - 1988 1989 School Transp. Network 2400 2400 1002 Unknoun - - - 1988 1989 Rebuilding of ? prineary schools 1200 1200 1OOX Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Res.of School Broad. & Film Unit 1400 1400 1002 Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Now Secondary Schools 3200 3200 1002 Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Protection of National Monwents 600 604 100. Unknoun - - - 1988 1989 Constr. of 2 pre-priwary schools 2000 2000 1002 Unknown - - - 1988 1989 Park Estate Delinquents Hone 1500 1500 100l Unknown - - - 1986 1989 PSIPby Sector - 22 - (EC'000) 1995 1986 1987 1988 1986-88

EconomicSectors 72,237 65,211 49,334 53,760 168,305

Agriculture 8,329 12,104 10,309 15,243 37,656 Enrgy 2,424 921 544 2,679 4,143 Naufacturing 1,025 3,363 4,567 4,000 11,930 Touris 444 689 940 3,961 5,590 Comunications 2,290 11,872 11,243 9,555 32,670 Transportation 53,078 28,584 15,796 9,693 53,073 Air 44,829 6,801 0 0 6,801 boads 7,829 20,601 15,796 8,302 44,699 Sea 420 1,192 0 31 1,573 Iaterand Seage 1,679 1,490 3,235 9,630 14,355 OtherEconoic Services 2,968 6,188 2,700 0 8,B88 Education 1,595 3,384 3,323 IO,703 17,410 Healthand Community Services 3,564 11,169 6,218 2,666 20,053 Housing 933 2,781 598 4,650 8,029 PublicSafety 879 690 1,451 495 2,636 Oter 844 604 1,885 1,709 4,198 PSIP 80,042 83,839 62,909 73,983 220,631

PlIP by Sector (2) 1995 1986 1987 1988 1986-89

EconomicSectors 90.22 77.82 78.52 72.72 76.31

Agriculture 10.42 14.41 16.41 20.61 17.12 Energy 3.01 1.12 0.92 3.61 1.9? anofacturing 1.32 4.0Z 7.31 5.42 5.42 Tourism 0.62 0.82 1.51 5.42 2.51 Communications 2.92 14.22 17.92 12.91 14.82 Transportation 66.31 34.11 25.12 11.72 24.12 Air 56.0Z 8.1X 0.02 0.02 3.12 Roads 9.81 24.62 25.11 11.22 20.31 Sea 0.5Z 1.42 0.02 0.52 0.71 later andSewerage 2.12 1.89 5.22 13.01 6.52 OtherEconomic Services 3.72 7.42 4.32 0.01 4.01 Education 2.02 4.02 5.32 14.51 7.92 Healthand Community Services 4.52 13.32 9.92 3.62 9.11 Housing 1.21 3.32 1.01 6.32 3.62 PublicSaftty 1.12 0.82 2.32 0.72 1.21 Other 1.1 0.71 3.02 2.32 1.9n FlIP 100.02100.01 100.02 100.01 100.02

P5SIFIMAICINS 1995 1986 1987 1988 IN6 - 198 ______$S000 2

TOTAL 80,042 93,839 62,809 73,983 220,631 100.02

CENTRAL6OVERNMIENT 69,138 61,660 42,068 40,832 144,560 65.52 External 63,029 48,776 26,486 22,279 97,540 44.22 Grants 58,065 26,647 14,337 12,765 53,749 24.42 Loans 4,964 22,129 12,149 9,513 43,791 19.82

Local 6,109 12,894 15,592 19,554 47,020 21.31

OTHERPUx IC SECTOR 10,904 22,179 20,741 33,151 76,071 34.51 External 9,154 18,22913,461 20,599 52,219 23.72 Grants 3,399 4,875 7,718 14,129 26,722 12.11 Loans 5,755 13,354 5,743 6,460 25,557 11.6Z

Local 1,750 3,950 7,280 12,562 23,792 10.91 UI tDEOCIUL1lIMTIUl ft t19 t (It

LISTP JUUCiL EPIUTIU MUfuhh aUPU I (I?

EITEUI.FtImEIM MTIE TITLEt/JWIT GSIFIUTI MATL_ __ _ STIOSTUN 441EIIU Ct BU/l Con NMMCE LO T SUT 42) IWIITIE 53) -

EIC SERVICE'

_ob. Dhwms.Proj. Coodinator 230 220 MUlIP roat Jan. 196 De. 19417 h-tin Part of I Program_9ert projet Etl,495 Fruit Crop 1evulpsent Projetrted 68 68 tUlP/tD Lnlrat lct. 15 De. 14117 h-ti. hO fruit crop apooist fwr )A". Crp hms. Project E113,5300 PiKct-retd htermoaa 245 245t$C Brat Nor. t1 ha 196 hn-ties -ther blWyticl Desist, Prod.Ciest Lab. 554 10 IW Graut Nr. 141 Feb.1M hbt yt initiatud Foo poity ewrol; Wt of i Pre-m duprt project1111,495 itbr ataProim , StaUstiiS .. .. WIUAD Urnt 2 to I mtbs ho yet Initiated ho Waicltoral sttisticim Policyand or fming buzstac 270 270 ono Brut Oct. 196 S. "a h-tie, On Waicdtwol oiuast; to be 1oh em _m beil '.d Estlloboant or@ 243 243 FAD Brat am9 156 h-tine Frowisim of epnat (completed)at trainf oetbr Pot al_ot Adviwr () I..1 br*t Ag. 41e5 197 h-ties Put ad d4isn ncm"l dviwr ban is tIimida othe Locen & Etrop lenvelopt 40 40 IN urat gm4 516 lh-t4i -. hna.t dviwr p tt-tdd 139 I3n VIF brat 4195 "17 h-tao To yarin t of rtieal FLirwi preJet U05,731P1ootteslated Iefrigratiet Exet 60 60 VIF Grant 416 19 hbt yt initiated to yers Pwt of rUtimal Fierie prject 115,11332jocti-oatd Sorketang Export 52 52 VIF fronft6 t117 hoet nidtiateW yes; Pnt f 0rti Fiserin project f5,711 ilotr Fiera Pit-re ltd 52 52 VIf Brat 14W 1947 Not It initiated hO yrs Pt of Mrtiml Fiebrin projKt E1C5,73 ForestryDelepnt Prjre ateide 123 123 CFTC Brut b. 1413 Jly 1966 h-tao. Estenim of si_at tl gnicultaral Ilel_ -t CtITS IN) 68 61 MiP 6rut 5912 ec. 196 to-tts Cury's tF cetriutu to ttl rqgiual cost 13,042 hoer Fortry amdcssibility Ih. 378I 3711 FO Brt Feb.1tW Jo. 1947 ot yet initiated oa netart uIs M4t el m_hmat Other Coco Inddstry-gadeAsnSS S It11 CII Orbt Apr. 196 Juy 1986 hot yet initiated btailedl pd nieg ad projct re-desip LiWKtct lO. Progrea Pnojt-rIae CFTC Brat Apr.5995 br. I4117 b-ties LiwitockhW. flu 17v-9; Study W?r; Dairy/Def r Pjt-reate FPnt Prodtion Projct . It 3HIM 6rant 194 19W ht yet initiated Fesibility Study;Part of _b. & limw. pjct 1 ,500 Projet-rtde 14igradingof Land/Materesorce I VRTLit Brat 1415 1416 h-ti hOter krenoa SugarFactory 1I 4131) krat 10 esh141 hot yet initiated Feuibility stady a reoetia ad rod of Iqdt ltional Paris Prject-elated . So 6rut 15 1417 lb yet initia Partof ho IntegratedI _lapeadtproject E54 Wr _ AgraculturalCtam Plan Oter .. .. Grkant 1916 187 ht yet initiated LadDivat_t PrWr_, Pert of ho Integratedheul_pmt rojept hto beacultureIumlopt 65 65 s Grant 44 19"7 h-tim Ielopt of prWrm; Pilot project for SIster, snrip I yter Projct-rdated

lndustry ( lodtriel lllepet ExWrt 437 3 /UM Brut JUN 14W by 1il kbld ehialo Ftr lntril Es ProJectE6,7M2 PhrjtltadW Cartbo ivetoont Proatic CR9 27 27 UISIDUP Brut kt. 1S14 De. Ift hw-tin Cetry's IPF ctrhietim to tot coat loitri.l Estat Fasibility Study 1w l07 gO MP #rot Feb. II" pr 14 ho ybtA iditiae - &OePtA

orim 111") Twisaomtie ad Prod.hv. Eq. 36 33 1W krat be. 1905Oct. 14 l-tim Pet Of P Prap SOp prect 8111,495 hor hloe Training 26 19 MWrket ep. 3415De. 56 h-ltim lb t aleIKo Pt for M476 Dart-tere Stratey htor .. .. ha but 1544 1467 t-ties Pat of ho Integrated111_p projet CM per thoer Trawpprtation (TAP)

Traspt SectorPolicy Foruletio .. .. CmC riant am.19 r. 196' h-tine Forsmatimsof policie ad lepslatie inkttrapr, hot etc. Othe

Energy(EI?

Los Rduction Study I 95 Brant kt. 19M5kw 2986 b-tie Reprt to be finalitid Projct-rlated Dieel fertime WV.Study .. EBI Grat 194 194 Notyet initiated Short-twe Prject-relattd nrqis RivwrNdro. Study 11 .. .. ElI 6rat 195 1996 h-tim Sdy sWitted to Boveret Prjet-related EWer Delopmn /RI 54 54 1W Grant 1964 Jue 1966 a-time Eery Adviw base in OECSI batipu Other

later Spply (HAS) later Resoces ssns. & ev. 373 232 MIP 6ret Kby1935 eby1937 h-tim he hydrologistand ehert-te ceneutents ther

Trade,Dkntug TBi)

Tra Prmtio ad Eprt Db. 1,4321,3231 0*S Brat Ja. 1984 ec. 1937 h-tima 1934-67prur ECUSEto beapproved Other Tr* Ioformeti.onSystem 219 2t6 CTC rant Apr. 1963 Apr. I96 h-tie hem r eteomilmrqetod r

NIKIILAINS (IESI

Entvsrummtal11e_n t .. O.A*S 6rt 194 197 on-tim 9heb erosi cotroliolterilq, draiue M lotbrted ev. projet OtHrw Strarglieaingof Balding Div. .. .. CFTC Brat 1915 193 he-time Other Stregtheningof 1eign h"it CFTC Brat 195 19% ar-time he strctwtl eginer Oter Reinforcneetof ConcreteStrctuen . .. CFTC Grant 1955 19 llot yet initiated - other Corrics Developent u .. .. 0s Grist 195 196 h-time Part of U 1ntegrate mlopn_ t rject EC5 prw Projct-nrlae

0CIALSERVICES

Eductte smdTrainng (EDTI

Seidace C_uelli OAS. rant lh . 1995 Feb. 196 -time St nt Ln 300 270 Cii LoN a". 194 bh. t9 h-time Other Stattimal Pln 32 32 VW Gra.t Vr. 193 on. 193 Nkt yet initiated Prt ef MPrmet oe pert projectEC6,95 Other Tehical andic. Training 331 179 Du5 Brat 1964 he. 393 h-tim Ete _ er Other Ikheol of Arts Follnuhips 219 A OS Brat 1994 he. 2934 b-time Tie stAts biWqtraiut Other elit Edactien 119 e5 OAS Brant 1964 he. 2937 Bind schedule Secondphm (1937-1)Continuing Ehstfe Programmeapov Other technil an 0nC.E ation QoRI 270 MOP 6rant 193 bc. 1985 h-tim Estmia eWctd Oteu Laning fir Ewauuu 3 3*6 5 6rant 1964 hc. 1906 Mind ehed - Oter kime Educatins 44 4B 03 Grant 196 1967 bitn shde Eqpw t rrived Othr LItruet techician traininq 25 25 IIR Grant 19 194 b-tim - Otbr hws lbtir lRcknic kbm 310 240 UIFEIUCIR Grat July 195 Je 1987 h-time 14 am beingtraind other rimacemd Teolq y 2 29 OAS Grant 195 be. 17 lh-tIm Iontlttioel 1i_et Ithr let edCultural vI pemt 170 170 06 Grant 1962 ht. i h-tim traieing for mic a drantnechs broadentlegicultural evnts other hlti-inleed Prirm (RI 75 754 UIICEF Grat 1964 19K h-tie Earlychildhood d1e_pitl nn-formI eucatio Other Population,lhaltf. aktritimn(PSN)

Project OKP! 11,63711,637 LiSAID grant FV6. 1964Dhc. 1967 Oa-titn - Other Fauly Plan. ad FaatlyLife Efuc. 963 6 UIPFPA Grant Ja. 1915Jan. 191 behindK tl Otber PAWTcIoCai CooperationPr .. .. P/PA 6rat ana provisin h-tim Eziremt, l0rastructure, aritio, CH Iet 196 ECt25 othe SolidOWNc Diosal .. .. UCI1D Grat Jy 1915 m 1916 h-tite Totalcapital cwt EC3 4194-1X9 *0301tt-TVIA tiily hrsiq Edacatio 1R) S S WMPIDI 6rant 194 Jan. 196 1 be coopleted Total riaal cast ECS378.1Em-196) Oter pelationad DevJlme_ Projet 607 607 SLAD Grat Jan. 16 Dec. 1996 h1-ti - Stin

ftsing u CoanenitySwrvice, (KCSI

lWutiee d SWan3Plant - GRady .. .. tFTC Eret 19l5 1996 h-tim Pr.jet-atbb m ty D l et .. .. FC rant 1995 1996 Mied sedue - Gtber Leo-cst heling Survey 7 7 CtC Grant Feb. 1966 Nay196 h-tie bl to Natioal Lmn-lacon Ming Proproae 'VJut- tud

Nbti_l t_wac k _ MlS) lb 16 ILt Grant go. 195 an. 193 b-tim To avia Extent ade ad statisticia) stow trainieg tw talw lfiws .. .. UlMIFTC Grant 1t 19 b-tin 1 fainmcita19% 6t

Nisistratit nd flaming (aUn

Atina Projet e. SyMte$ lo1 on Grant an. 194 am 1m btin - Ugrading Staistics Depwrtott 251 210 kW rast 11e. 19 bc.D 1987 Mind Kcienl, IN . Utisti fre ba 19 st a WMbr 94 Al NWP Gret 1976 am 1936 b-tine e f1l_li.b is Laoat 1111Trided Esaic ANriea 124 112 IUP Grant kg. I1 My 1997 D-tim P t llilW Pgron I'lt weett ECSI,"5 _tb Strnegthing f Dbpt. of bdit t 32n D Grant Ie. 159 Dec. 18 b-tim Directer of kNit oter Fit) lefore 5,6195,619 AI1D Brant 1by. IM5 Nay1987 h-tim ty AMipletatimo of bieicial systl Other

FPlicUftty M1)

Trairin of trim Sticere 120 120 D Grant c4t. 5 kJa 99 htim so training odfcr u _iqusthadogoffre6h Police Ser. tI 601 U Grat be. 193 Jul I9t l -tim Orm of upt Other bmtity Serweyr 50 48 OWP kat Jun 1996 Nay. 1987 11t yet initiated kmadian t idoetified Pat of (P PrWe. 9Spot ES,45 Oth butity S rvor 165 185 CFTC Brat Jily 1986 July 196 Dh-tiee Eftt d om yer Oter 14ti1aa Inferaation lynte U62 2 OAS Brat 194 19 n-tin - Other bee's h_cc Centre 74 74 IUFEI Grant 196 2917 Denied schKdl EUt aistace in imlementation aited Other "agitation of "Stt 29 29 OAS Grnt 1994 1995 eied chdle - Project-teatd

tl) ArowVd Md/a as eKcAtam (22 htc of appitment w initial disWre t date (3) ate of troatim o terionui disbreeent data (41 lct ye initiated/deadlh tia/Mhnd echedulellpod/DisctntiledlCqleted. net available bS.ce: 6oeaut of krads, MP1, I11

lWc_W 1901 NEIDATECHNICAL COEMTION PDIUDI 1996-1f9

LISTOF POIlS TECHINICAClISPATION PIDIES

(to arar of prioity by ator)

ERliUS.lFIIICIIES DISUltll OtJAICtIDI f IE4 TItLEUJECT TAL -C__ I_ F_ StIllS CTS PECt-EIE/ ClE CM MISt MS L MI SJTATf1 CFlRETIOIN2) ED _

EISIaC IntSPO

I_I Conl" .. .. 3W/PIFOI grat AM1 - 2 yes MP/FADapoachd *b-r,iaa pro;st to reANOeloa_ Cm by rednts Preject-related S111 Forwt hd net .. .. TC Orat ly 19SI July 1W CFTCto he pproaced on foresy deul*nt officer _oNq, Foestry tUher O lterprot. CM .. .. rtrot lEW 2 yews MP to be Wr ed 1onagt of Cotra n rt of tezi.t attraction triwy Esart Othr nSo .. .. VW rant dup. 193 Mly IW87 1 to be apoace 4 Tabdicul _tppartto _ ULW lwlopot Prow mm Project-reltd4d OMW hilitotion .. .. CIS Orat lEr. 1904 feb. 1997 CII aWpoce ILmt,icio to alIe reeO daliktet FareNcha zatie. Project-related EmUS .. UIS/FM) Orat IP 2 yers /PlFAOto be approached elopiO Of far aeKbical aqipt i retoncpreera Fisherie ebia stratioe Dtker NNW m 77 FAD Grot :e oath FADtOe k proaced fierias adisr, iologiststatisticiea etc. to etlid policias toct ier of Fisheris tehr USD7 Edection 2,183 2,183 CII Brant 3 yrs CIII to be WroKed Fisherie ad hbrin Envir_sat Eduction fwr scoay ns didtativ nao Otbr OW NS .. . .. rant I ye r h eow km O rt ien einistratim to he attKdhd to lRie.of iceltore Cmpotortisn, 1o1S1 Other _ .. . .. rt 3 maths how utmn beds sonst ad advi_e a slectise of bwd and oteid Othr USSo Artificial enatio aboratory . , .. FAD rat 2 ywrs FlAto he 1Woaced Ezasiatiem of _ ulity ad es ortitoloy Other 1mi bitl ad Ihtr Conevatim . .. rat I yr b ow an E rt is bilding bech torrac, irrigtion I drei arsIthkr _D12 -M Outritio ad Pst ero t ...... rt 2 yes I oser ino edpao of trpical fed forhUtios ad pate" c awtvation Oter USA Eauiatios of Ma Projection .. .. France Brat 4 maths French OMt.apoKcd C rizt ad Vapy Mill us NMeEconoics Ohr U1114 .. .. pa Cp rt 2 years Peac Cop to be approached School4-1 Estsienuipror Othwr mIUS bOct hlpNt 78 7 FAD k at 2 moths FADproaed Feasility stu a prmotion of aqsacltw* Projectt-reated US11

jaitr (to)

b 1 fsterprime hnuopwat .. .. IRPLl Brat 2 yews VW/ELI aWrcd PreWratin of htie an for _el11*taum ftolt-rdlt1d _ t S1 rojat kw. is fro-tnueltry .. .. cm Bat I ye Tc to be bprachd Indutrial Esaist to prepar prj. profilasfeaslU ty dis Pojectlatad IEl Poution of Coout Oil PrOcts 19 159 IWm krast l99 111 5 prCEFowachd truis for mo I etaist It of sal-$scale prdctis, eit Iltr 1W Yrday of hlstrial Stivtitns ., .. rat art to MD to be Wo whd i e of amwiufactoringwtivitie thragh PI Other OEM Te % it) bDrectorof Tain.o CmC rat MW2 yar cI toe bappreed Exportto hdb hwt t of Tari. w _ Tair Im oll_pt 9n. CFTC but MW I so s cm eru d Cautt IdtIf led of PUilt; uiatie Peckap Nned.. But 1 W I VW 1redak to hbeappracd IItograpbw spucilalim is lIuR &uite otusi torit. wHty _ w* rktitg ad hadWm y .. .. CtIC but _ W jot-two CS, tC to k appnehd TnetAlist ul. ad arfing tutbchiq. 6w PodKti. IevlePt ow brat S w 3 maths N1Pto h Aproached Prctim of ariotie pKmps ad ist pckap r1w istw tfl1_ tarzt ur_a Pn .. .. acaiI But MW shrat-twa 3au_cai31Pto be aproce lqrout of lois' attitude td. trwiss 6w EII oistur to Or_ad Natial Trut 14 14 MID Brat I pr 11l e Wptoahdl_Ibativtl of Sued MbtS Trt 11w on,

nDital, huryisg to

Barr U I mI CI1 tt . W 2 arn C to he _ chd n advio; Cm fimado stody of uda Sa rquiretns gibe _ 1 Stu awry Cmir_ t 91 95 liN but slrt-two UNIDOappro Feasbility stdy *Pojet-Atd

Trasportatioa 113)

Traloiugis be .astusae mm grisat 4 - wits 111*ISto k aworoaed Deig ofbD aistoscoN s Ot1w _ 1A brios Strewor lepet .. c m brat short-tern (191) CFtCappro"ed c coastal dufoane_Or PrOJeCt-rtltold WE

Ci.catim (Co)

llt eretogist .. . CIII brut 2 - 3 ps CI to be eproachd be sime sotuolegist fr Poist dins t Carrier. Airtort lIlian 11 1

fwl (fDn 00

ligoliatiog Stratgis sitl Oil Co. .. . BuPbrat I oMt (1914) Ut/S to bt Wroced EnergyKouist to edin ee biddingfor sxplorationrigts Proect-related Io 1 Pricing ichis in Petrol SKtio .. ButBra5W I sot (I1) WOWt to peproe fain of potrelmpriciiq ad stnutoto fmw si_W Sttdy . C0t Brat shut-ters(191) Co1to hoapad Evaluatio *prospctsf wr oirdgsatud electricity rojeu-nlatud _I

.t1w Swuply (Wm

lntupatia of CI %Srsg et. . ".PSCIIA brut shrt-tn 41914 P tlIB Wroaed ltuWgtios KOdulS in sid-lIS9 011w BN6 Cotcrrd UstorSwly I St .. .. CIDt brat shrt-tar 419t14 CIII Wroaed Cestiog, desigs sa gOuriog studios Pojct-related S 2 watice & (idst. of TestDrilling CIDI Grat e W 2 yar CIII to be awproad Be xprt is tet drilling; l-sauce trasidg 0tw S bnal tr Project lapletatio . WP/Ul ruat MW Iar WUIP/W to be a ached Civil gineerfor CIBC/II branl MOetrProect Projet-rtd _

Trad, Bakiog iTS)

Est*li It of rcbhet eat 60 60 Cea Brant ort-J: 1191) CDIIWrabhd Pre-fasibility ad feibility stdie Projut-relatd am

NISeL tESl

Enqiew for CareiK bo. Plan too 9% MP Brat Jan. IP bc. 199 SP approaced oven st Canitte caeiug candidate Project-rlatmed 3 Education&M Traisitg 1EDTI

Cerriclm e lpat .. .. CC Grt 159 2 yeas tCM to b aroaWoKd IiO cuotant to 6..tp currice fa r bd rc_'trs Other auTI hidae ceu,llia 32 3 9 front arbh 196 kg6 . t6 MP appoached D lept of uidm, I cesllihg syste fo chuls ot_ 9rTI Skills Traiing for Eeployrtest tC)1,3:1 1,350 WUS/ 1 trkt Jan. 19 Dec. 1g3 OSIUSAI aproachd Agriculture, cofce, trm, cddfitntalut ",to10 ohe1 Trsifor of Tecnlogy for De. .. 96 mS tat 19t Dc. IW9 0R$ AWroce Sitizatio of priwy at imusy stu ets in1 ies tecnlog Othw MKI Educatin i110rce lNetort .. tt1 *S bat t96 Dec. 197 ON aWoacd herwt Cutr, ad Utils librarin for tetsrs 0th RIMRW Tcheical I Vocatil Edactim (Rl IDo1, 170 IUCFpH at/LmtD 1996 1990 ESCi _rohed it to III/D rgiaul propual,capital cost EC#h l3r ye Projit-atet IN6 tntre for Youth D.lapat .. .. VSICIE Ersait larch 1916 Feb. 1967IP;IEN to e approachd Skill traLieg programn in seg, drasin tk. for the delioqat othwr _ 17 Spcialist for handicape .. .. vCE 9rat 2 yews VWICEO to )e aWppoa On traier fr the mtsly/ ically ha dicapped Other iR10 Trais. for Secundry School Tche ...... rat 2 - 3 yews DOW aoth Fehl hips ito Stise, Frhc, etc. at regit isstttiess other hi1 Truiniog s Smrwa aae t .. .. USO Grat 1 - 2 yers UI1D to be approaced I.L. courw in US Other UF0ttO

Training is kcomting, CU .Grantdt Sep. 1966 A". I7 303 to he apwroac Torto AM certificat io ritaus Other _ ETII Truint is Labow ffair .. .. tW tat larch 19t Js t96 ILO to be a oroahd Concilatioe ervies, ocational ts yt, colective ergdaiog etc. other Btt2 Trait. for Dep. L&our Coasies r .. .. 110 Grant Jww 2966 An. 19t IWO to be approached Corws is eploset service, info meapes ad staff traiosig Other _tUl Trinig is IntrAtiotal latim ., .. .. rat Sep. 1917 Jm Ill9 Doer saows T r-ywdiploma cowr at WI, St. astise, Trisidad Other DUN 4

Pouatim, Helth, Hetrities (PO)

Uidaify tutor .. .. CFlT rtant atch 16 Feb. 1998 MRIC to be aWroaed coWo of orsing Oter 6 Public balth Eagisr ...... Srat MW 2 yes Dkew unkn_e Advi usrvices ad training of stf at Ule oF Halth Other mm Het th lsforsetia ad Statistics .. .. pBlrD Stat MW I yews PUS . toe ap prchW Establi Iet of heath iofwstiou systa at Stat. I bogis. bit Other Maw radical ShWristedut .. .. GrICtant AW 2 years WM to be approached sisr at lsital Othr 111 lehtetriciaot_yacologist .. .. P U 9raftt MW 2 yws PFSlU t be awroaet esral ospital Other _ eeral Srpe Pl1UN Bret MW 2 yesr PANDAWto be pwoachd Teo avro to be attachd to lanai Notsitaltt h. Physiotheapists tc . .. BArCanSat 2 VWec P/tS5 to be apoache KemII Eldrlty et Sttbspics Dept. of lesl oiWtal Other U ilmt Orcepational Therapist P.. ".6rM Brnt 2 yews P1111U3 to be awroacd bet HoWital Other 61 trad be/St. U ge's Ste. ,tn .. C..C rat short-tere CA Approached Feasibility Study Frettlad sim Natiol terae ystes .. .. . Bret . . a Fuibility Study for yve, Stars, Victori, beevlillr, etc. Projet-tlatd tiiO

si ad ClSmitty Servicet (lt)1

lntr-Carw la Sheltr Project (R) 1,060 1100 WUIP/ED Srat Ja. 16 ec. 16t UPiCI3 aroached Total reioal cost n,400(1937-196) 1ith GA,SMM16 France Project-relatedtl 11

lscllpr eoos tUSS)

Isproneet of been is osFr orce 135 135 UlEl.tE Stat ow yer tIDICEFapprotachd Researchon udoi-ecssit cadies od reral/assleyd a_e Other _lS u'mrELIcKRVICES

Orgaizations ad I thed St* 9& 90 S Grant *v. 19W Fat. t16 WI zrroaP Fhm It of d tsratl. of Alic S'vics HU *ttA_r .amPia.n4 aid holapmt . dsM tBrat .. U131 to P approached Lawon pIa dwelepat strat..' for St. SW -$ tu D PJateiatu M Mucatim of Fwurnt fi4 .. .. trait 2 yw USAIDSto bo aWoah OiP Of sOldtidtw huldiag oaIn fwr all raidstrin PMjKct-ntW 011=

(11 Date of zdaotmetW unitial dideaut date 12) Date of tar,oatio or terminal dishsoat bt detaruised, "ko

Swoure:bowru of Grant", MP, [Im

kngata 1905

C) - 31 -

ANNEXIII

MACROECONOMICPROJECTIONS - 32 -

Table2.5: GREMADA- ACTUAL ANDPROECTED NATIWOA ACCOUlTS

(1984ECS million)

Actual Est. PROJECTED

1984 1985 1986 1987 19K8 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 9 1995

Ormssdomestic product 242.2 251.1 262.4 275.5 289.3 302.3 314.4 327.0 340.1 353.7 367.9 382.5 Termsof tradeadjustmnt 0.0 3.3 12.3 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.3 Grossdomestic incme 242.2 254.4 274.7 278.3 291.2 303.3 314.5 327.6 341.7 356.4 371.7 387.9 Iqportsof 6NFS 191.1 218.5 242.4 246.8 264.9 279.6 292.7 306.4 320.8 335.9 351.7 36813 Exports(capacity to isport) -108.8 -139.1 -159.1 -169.3 -187.9 -205.5 -220.2 -235.0 -250.5 -267.1 -284.9 -3u3.8 Resourcegap 82.3 80.3 83.3 77.5 77.0 74.1 72.4 71.4 70.3 68.8 66.9 64.5 Totalresources 324.5 334.7 358.0 355.8 368.2 377.4 396.9 399.1 412.0 425.1 439.6 452.3

Consumption 244.5 242.7 261.0 265.8 270.2 277.4 284.9 295.1 306.0 317.1 329.6 340.3 Investment 80.0 92.0 97.0 90.0 99.0 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0 108.0 110.0 112.0 Private 10.0 14.0 20.0 28.0 32.0 36.0 40.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 Governmet 70.0 79.0 77.0 62.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Grossdosestic savings -2.3 11.7 13.7 12.5 21.0 25.9 29.6 32.6 35.7 39.2 43.1 47.5 Private -3.3 9.7 15.7 10.5 17.0 17.9 19.6 20.6 21.7 23.2 23.1 23,5 Bovernment 1.0 2.0 -2.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 20.0 24.0 Netfactor payments -4.3 -7.5 -6.5 -7.1 -7.6 -8.0 -8.2 -8.6 -9.0 -9.4 -9.7 -10.0 Transfers 31.6 9.1 19.9 23.3 26.2 25.5 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.2

Grossnational savings 25.0 13.3 27.1 28.7 39.5 43.4 46.1 48.7 51.4 54.4 57.8 61.9 grossnational product 269.5 252.7 275.8 291.7 307.8 319.9 330.9 343.1 355.7 368.8 392.5 396.7 Grossnational income 269.5 256.0 289.1 294.5 309.7 320.8 331.0 343.8 357.3 371.5 386.4 402.1

6P deflator 100.0 103.0 108.2 113.6 119.2 125.2 131.5 136.7 142.2 147.9 153.9 159.9 GDPin currentprices 242.2 258.6 293.8 312.9 344.9 378.5 413.3 447.0 493.5 523.0 565.6 611.8

Grouthrates

GOP . 3.7 4.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Totalresources . 3.2 6.9 -0.6 3.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 Investsent * 15.0 5.4 -7.2 9.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 Consumption . -0.7 7.5 1.9 1.7 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 Agriculture . -10.2 2.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Nanufacturing . 18.8 12.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Government . 11.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Services . 0.6 4.7 3.3 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.6

Percentages

Investaent/6DY 33.0 36.6 37.0 32.7 33.9 33.1 32.4 31.8 31.2 30.5 29.9 29.3 60S/SOY -0.9 4.7 5.2 4.5 7.2 9.6 9.4 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.4 UIS/GoY 10.3 5.3 10.3 10.4 13.6 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.1 Consumption/GoY 100.9 96.7 99.5 96.5 93.4 91.8 90.6 90.2 90.0 89.7 89.3 89.0 Currentrevenue/SOP 35.9 38.7 34.5 35.2 34.8 34.9 34.8 35.8 36.2 36.7 37.1 36.9 Currentexpenditure/GDP 35.5 37.9 35.2 34.5 33.6 32.9 32.4 33.1 33.3 33.7 33.6 32.9 Currentacct. balance/GDP 3.3 2.3 0.7 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.2

Source:lission estimates. - 33 -

Table2.6i BREMDA- ACTUAL ANDPROJECTED TRADESRONTh RATES AND PRICE INDICES

Atual Est. P ROJ E C T E O

1994 1985 1986 1987 1988 1999 1990 1991 1M 1993 1"4 1995

ExportsGrowth Rates

Bananas . -6.9 2.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Cocoa . 9.8 6.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Nutega . 76.2 -15.0 -5.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Nace . 45.2 -8.0 -2.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Fruits . 35.1 15.0 20.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Clothing . -14.3 10.0 25.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Other . 93.3 20.0 20.0 15.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Re-exports . 18.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Totalserchandise exports . 26.7 4.6 11.1 11.2 9.9 7.2 5.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Non-factorservices . 21.7 12.0 15.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Totalexports . 23.8 8.9 13.4 11.7 9.9 7.7 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3

Price Index(1984 a 1001

Bnanasa/ 100 115 129 136 139 142 145 148 154 159 165 171 Cocoa 100 111 106 105 109 111 115 118 123 129 134 140 Nutmeg 100 114 220 160 165 170 175 190 188 196 204 213 Race 100 107 140 120 124 127 131 135 141 147 153 160 Fruitsa/ 100 99 91 91 .98 106 114 123 131 140 149 159 Clothinga/ 100 100 108 105 114 123 134 145 152 161 169 179 Othera/ 100 101 109 116 124 133 142 148 154 160 166 173 Re-exportsa/ 100 101 109 116 124 133 142 148 154 160 166 173 Kerchandiseexports 100 106 122 112 117 123 129 135 142 149 157 165 Non-factorservices a/ 100 101 109 116 124 133 142 148 154 160 166 173 Totalexports 100 103 114 115 121 129 137 143 149 156 162 170

Iports in 1984US$ ferchandiseisports 57.1 66.7 74.7 76.2 82.3 87.3 91.6 96.2 101.0 106.1 111.4 116.; Mon-factorservices 13.6 14.1 15.0 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 Totalimports 70.7 90.8 89.7 91.3 98.0 103.4 109.3 113.4 118.7 .1.3 130.1 136.3 Iportprice index - 6NFS 100 101 105 113 120 129 137 142 149 154 160 167

Importgrowth rates ferchandiseisports . 16.8 12.0 2.0 8.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Non-factorservices . 3.8 6.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Totalimports . 14.3 11.0 1.8 7.3 5.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7

Termsof tradeindices

Exportprice index 100 106 122 112 117 123 129 135 142 149 157 165 Importprice indexal 100 101 105 112 119 127 136 141 147 153 159 166 Ternsof tradeindex 100 105 117 100 98 96 95 96 96 97 98 99

a/Econosic Projection Department.

Source:Mission estimtes. - 34 -

Table2.7: EOW *ACTIUALS A ROJECTED SAJCE U PANEli3

(IS illim)

kAtul Est. pROJECTED

1956 15 1916 I"? 198 199 10 1"1 1M 1"3 19 1"

Exwrtsof SifS 40.3 51.6 42.0 70.6 83.4 97.3 111.4 123.7 137.2 52.2 68.3 187.3 ;epwts of SIfS 70.7, 81.6 94.5 102.9 117.6 132.4 141.1 11.3 175.7 191.4 203. 227.; R uceSolnce, -3U.4 -30.0 -32.5 -32.3 -34.2 -35.1 -36.6 -37.6 -38.5 -39.2 -39.6 -3C.6

Netcwrr t trnsfes 11.7 3.4 0.0 10.0 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 llt facttr payts -1.6 -2.8 -2A6 -3.1 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -4.7 -5.1 -5.5 -6.0 -o.4 Intwet -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -2.1 -2.5 -2.9 -3.3 -3.7 -4.1 -4. -5.0 -5.4 OtherNPS 0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 - 1.0 -1.0 -1.0

Currat cout biluace -20.3 -29.4 -27.1 -25.4 -25.7 -26.5 -23.0 -23.8 -29.4 -30.2 -30.6 -30.7

Directforeig iuvestet 2.a 2.5 5.0 7.0 3.0 9.0 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 Bats 24.6 28.9 15.o 12.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 HILTpublic det ("t) 2.7 -1.9 5.0 6.2 5.7 5.5 S.9 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.6 a.2 idsbrset 6.8 4.6 11.7 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.0 12.2 13.2 12.7 13.3 14.4 Aertizatioa 4.1 o.5 6.7 6.4 7.0 7.3 0.1 5.9 6.6 6.0 6.7 8.2 Arrows 0.6 2.9 ------ErrorsI oissions -10.8 -2.8 ------

Chngein resrve .4 -0.2 (- a increa)

-et serviceas I ofeipGrts of GNFS 15.0 ie.1 13.5 12.0 .1.4 Io.5 8.3 ;.a 7.j 6. 6.? i. DebtsirCe U 2 oi SDt .a M.7 7.9 7.3 7.4 7.3 6.2 3.8 o.0 . 5.6 6.0 DSas I of currentrtevent 19.o 22.4 23.0 20.6 21.3 20.9 i7.1 ID.3 10.4 14.8 15.0 I .3 LOD asI of Exports6NFS °,°.0 8a.1 82.1 90.9 75.3 70.2 66.6 65.1 .3.5 o1.7 59.5 56.9 000as 2 of S A.5 46.4 48.4 49.3 49.2 48.8 48.5 38.6 G. 48.5 48.0 47.1

-e - e------Source:Aission stfutates. - 35 -

GRENADA STATISTICALAPPENDIX

Table of Contents

Table No. Page No.

1.1 Population Trends ...... *...... 36 2.1 GDP by IndustrialOrigin (EC$million) ...... 37 2.2 GDP by IndustrialOrigin (1980EC$ million)...... 38 2.3 Expenditureon GrossDomestic Product...... 39 3.1 Balance of Payments...... 3.2 Value,Volume and Unit Pricesof Major Exports...... 41 4.1 Summaryof ExternalPublic Debt Operations...... 42 5.1 Central Government Operatio...... 5.2 Central Government Revenues...... *.... .44 5.3 CentralGovernment Expenditure by EconomicClassification ..... 45 5.4 FunctionalClassification of CentralGovernment Current Reavenues...... ,.46 5.5 ExternalGrants to CentralGovernment ...... 47 5.6 SummaryOperations of thePublic Sector ...... 48 69.1 Commercial Bank Operations...... 50 7.1 Production of Major Crops..*9...... 51 7.2 SelectedTourism Data...... 52 7.3 SelectedIndustrial Production ...... 53 7.4 Consumer Price Index 9...... - 36 - k2S Table 1.1: GRENADA - POPULATION TRENDS

Est. 1970 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Population (end of year) 96542 88176 90908 92322 96029 100341

Crude Birth Rate (per 1000) 29.0 27.2 29.6 31.6 30.6 28.1

Crude Death Rate (per 1000) 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.7 7.9 7.3

Rate of Natural Increase 21.1 17.5 21.5 22.9 22.7 20.8

Births 2741 2422 2614 2872 2823 2700

Deaths 743 732 721 794 729 700

Natural Increase 1998 1690 1893 2078 2094 2000

Net Miqration -2029 -3518 840 -664 1613 2312

Net PopuLation Increase -31 -1825 2733 1414 3707 4312

Infant Deaths 88 36 35 61 30 30

Infant Mortality Rate 32.1 14.9 13.4 21.2 10.6 11.1

Source: 1981 Population Census and Statistical Office. - 37 - k2S Table 2.1: GRENADA- GDP BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN a/

(EC$ million) ------__------Est. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ------__--- Acriculture 40.4 43.9 40.1 41.8 43.8 42.5 Crops 34.8 38.2 33.0 33.5 37.0 35.0 AQric., livestock & fxshino 5.6 5.7 7.1 8.1 6.8 7.5

Quarryinq 1.6 2.3 2.9 2.4 2.6 2.9

Manufacturinq 8.6 12.7 15.1 14.3 13.6 15.3

Utilities 3.7 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.6

Construction 11.3 17.3 20.3 17.3 18.4 19.4

Transport and Communications 12.5 14.4 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.7

Hotel and Restaurants 7.4 8.8 9.1 10.0 12.7 16.7

Wholesale and Retail Trade 30.3 32.5 35.7 35.5 37.5 40.2

Finance and Housinq 10.7 12.4 14.3 15.3 16.2 17.0

Government Services 35.4 42.0 46.6 52.4 62.1 69.1

Other Services 7.8 10.0 11.1 11.7 12.5 13.0

Gross Domestic Product at m.n. 169.7 200.6 216.1 222.2 242.2 260.4

a/ Numbers reflect recent revisions; estimates should be viewed as preliMinary.

Source: Statistics Officeand mission estimates. - 38 - k2S Table 2.2: GRENADA - GOP BY INDUSTF'AL ORIGIN a/

(1980 EC$ million)

Est. Est. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

AQriculture 40.4 4S.6 40.2 41.1 41.2 37.0 Crops 34.8 41.1 34.6 35.1 36.1 31.3 Aqric.. livestock & fishinq 5.6 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.1 5.7

Quarrvinq 1.6 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.0

Manufacturinn 8.6 11.5 13.0 11.7 10.1 12.0

Utilities 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7

Construction 11.3 14.6 15.9 12.7 12.9 13.1

Transport and Communications 12.5 12.6 13.8 13.5 13.8 14.2

Hotel and Restaurants 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.4 9.1 12.2

Wholesale and Retail Trade 30.3 29.7 31.6 30.4 30.9 31.5

Finance and Housinq 10.7 10.9 11.9 12.0 '2.1 12.2

Government Services 35.4 35.8 36.1 36.1 38.4 42.7

Other Services 7.8 8.4 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6

Gross Domestic Product at m.p. 169.7 183.2 184.3 178.9 182.5 189.2

GDP Growth . 8.0 0.6 -2.9 2.0 3.7 a! Preliminary official estimates, which are beinq revised on the basis of a quideline prepared by the Orqanization of East Caribbean States (OECS).

Source: Statistics Office and mission estimates. - 39 -

Table 2.3: 6RENADA- EXPENDITUREON BROSS DOMESTICPRODUCT

(EC$ million)

Est. 1980 1981 1982 1993 1984 1985 …------__------__---- Total Consumption 169.7 187.2 212.5 225.3 244.6 240.2 Public 46.9 50.8 51.4 55.0 63.0 69.9 Private 122.9 136.4 161.1 170.3 181.6 170.3

Gross DomesticInvestment 55.9 96.0 110.0 92.5 79.7 90.7 Public 37.1 76.6 95.7 84.4 70.0 76.7 Private 15.6 14.5 11.5 10.1 10.0 14.0 Inventorychange 3.2 4.9 2.8 -2.0 -0.3 0.0

ResourceSap -55.9 -82.6 -106.4 -95.6 -82.1 -70.5 Exports,S&NFS 106.9 106.9 103.1 104.8 108.9 139.3 Imports,8&NFS 162.8 189.5 209.5 200.3 190.9 209.8

Gross DomesticProduct at m.p 169.7 200.6 216.1 222.2 242.2 260.4 __ __ …______------

…------__------__---- a/ Preliminaryofficial estimates, which are being revisedon the basis of a guidelineprepared by the Organizationof East CaribbeanStates (CECS).

SourcesStatistics Office and missionestimates. - 40 -

Table 3.1: GRENADA- BALANCEOF PAYMENTS

(US$ million) ------__------__---- Est. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ______-…______- ______Exportsof Soods and NFS 39.6 39.6 38.2 38.8 40.3 51.6 Of which:Tourism 20.1 15.1 14.3 14.6 17.8 23.8

Importsof Goods and NFS 60.3 70.2 77.6 74.2 70.7 81.6 Of whichtAirport related 3.9 6.4 8.6 8.5 5.0 3.9

ResourceBalance -20.7 -30.6 -39.4 -35.4 -30.4 -30.0

Factor Services& Transfers 7.4 5.4 5.6 6.0 10.1 0.6 Net FactorService Payments -2.2 -5.0 -5.4 -4.8 -1.6 -2.8 Of which. Interestpayment -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -1.8 Transfersto PrivateSector 9.6 10.4 11.0 10.8 11.7 3.4

CurrentAccount Balance -13.3 -25.2 -33.8 -29.4 -20.3 -29.4

PrivateInvestment 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.5

OfficialGrants 12.7 12.5 15.9 10.1 24.6 28.9

PublicBorrowings (net) 1.3 7.3 9.5 14.1 3.8 0.5 Disbursements 1.8 8.0 10.1 15.2 6.8 4.6 Amortization 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 3.0 4.1

Other a/ -1.1 1.4 2.9 0.1 -2.2 -1.9

SDR Allocation 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OverallBalance 0.1 -3.6 -3.6 -2.6 8.7 0.7

Financing -0.1 3.6 3.6 2.6 -8.7 -0.7

IMF 0.0 5.8 -0.9 1.1 -1.1 -2.4 ECCB 0.3 -3.2 4.7 -1.3 -8.6 -1.0 Change in ForeignAssests (increase-) -0.4 1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 Arrears 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.6 2.9 a/ Includeserrors and omissions.

SourcessMinistry of Finance,Statistical Office; and IMP staff estimates. - 41 - k2S Table 3.2; GRENADA - VALUE. VOLUME AND UNIT PRICES OF MAJOR EXPORTS

(Value in mins. of US$; volume mins ibs; and unit price in US$/oound)

i979 1980 i98i i982 1983 1984 i985 ------__-- Total Merchandise Exports 2i.4 17.4 i9.0 i8.5 18.8 18.7 22.5

Re-exports w.8 w.5 0.4 w.8 0.5 0.5 0.5

Domestic Exports 2W.b 16.9 18.6 17.8 18.3 18.2 22.w

Bananas Value 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.W 2.9 3.1 Volume 31.0 27.5 25.1 22.0 23.2 18.3 17.4 Unit orice w.1 w.l w.l 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2

Cocoa Value 10.w 6.8 7.1 4.b 4.1 4.1 5.0 Volume 5.3 4.i 5.9 4.6 4.9 4.1 4.8 Unit price i.9 i.8 i.2 l.w 0.8 1.0 i.0

NutmeQ Value 4.6 3.2 3.0 3.W 3.3 2.1 4.2 Volume S.i 3.4 3.8 4.5 5.3 4.1 7.3 Unit price 0.9 W.9 0.8 w.7 w.6 0.S 0.6

I-ace Value w.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 w.8 0.9 1.4 Volume 0.7 w.6 w.5 w.7 w.7 w.3 w.5 Unit price 1.2 1.2 i.4 1.3 1.2 2.8 3.0

Fresh fruits Value 0.4 0.3 w.S 1.7 4.1 4.8 8.4 Volume i.4 0.9 1.7 5.7 i5.2 17.1 23.1 Unit price W.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Clothinq a! 0.4 0.9 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.7 w.6

Other a! w.6 i.& i.2 1.9 1.2 w.2 i.2 a! Value only.

Sources; Statistics Division; Commodity Boardsi and staff estimites. - 42 -

Table 4.1t 6RENADA- SUMMARYOF EXTERNALPUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONSd/

(In thousandsof US dollars)

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ------__------__---- Total outstandingdebt at ______end of period 14381 26242 33744 48350 48365 49623

Outstandingdebt due to IMF (end of period) 2824 8264 6924 7667 622 4404 Purchases 666 5907 0 1203 0 0 Repurchases (-) -680 -146 -908 -84 -1020 -2378 Valuationadjustment -951 -321 -432 -376 -430 565 Outstandingdebt excl. IMF (end of period) 11557 17978 26820 40693 42148 45220 Drawings 1758 8139 10124 15235 7295 4679 Amortization(-) -476 -686 -597 -572 -2117 -4115 Valuationadjustment -8 -1032 -685 -800 -3713 2508

Debt servicepayments 1627 1467 2409 2642 7226 10466

Amortization 1156 832 1505 656 3137 6493 IMF 680 146 908 94 1020 2378 Other 476 686 597 572 2117 4115 Interest 471 635 904 1211 2217 1074 IMF 111 250 485 431 500 338 Other 360 385 419 780 1717 736 Overdueobligations 0 0 0 775 1872 2899 Amortization 0 0 0 550 1743 2704 Interest 0 0 0 225 129 195

Total debt outstanding/BDP 22.9 35.3 42.2 58.8 53.9 51.5 Debt outstanding/6DP b/ 18.4 24.2 33.5 49.4 47.0 46.9 Net drawings/9DP 2.0 17.8 10.8 19.2 4.6 -1.9 Debt service/6DP 2.6 2.0 3.0 3.2 8.1 10.9 Debt serviceobligations/ Exports,6NFS 4.1 3.7 6.3 6.8 17.9 20.3 a/ Includes IMP and governmentguaranteed debt, but excludesECCB debt. b/ EcludingIMF.

Source:Ministry of Financeand staff estimates. - 4 -

Table 5.1: GRENADA- CENTRAL8OVERNNENT OPERATiNr (EC$million) ------.------_------_------_----_----__------_--__------_ Budget 19O0 1901 t982 1983 1984 1985 190t

Currentrevenue 57.7 U3.0 74.4 01.3 87.4 100.4 108.1 Currentexpenditure 59.6 64.4 71.6 74.4 86.3 98.4 98.4 Currentsurplus/deficit -1.9 -1.4 2.8 6.9 1.1 1.8 9.7 ------a--- c-oca ------Budgetarygrants (current) 1.4 0.9 2.6 3.2 20.6 19.5 18.0

Currentbalance -0.5 -0.5 5.4 10.1 29.7 21.3 27.7

Capitalexpenditure & not lending 37.5 74.8 103.6 92.2 67.9 80.0 110.5

Overallsurplus/deficit -38.0 -75.3 -98.2 -82.1 -38.2 -58.7 -82.8

Financing 38.0 75.3 98.2 C2.1 38.2 58.7 02.8

Capital grants 33.0 34.0 42.4 31.4 40.1 41.6 81.3 Not foreignborrowing 3.5 19.4 24.8 37.2 9.9 1.3 2.0 Disbursneent 4.5 21.3 26.2 40.0 17.8 12.4 23.7 Asortization 1.0 1.7 1.4 2.8 7.9 11.1 21.7 Other externalfinancing 0.0 19.4 -2.9 2.8 -1.7 -7.2 -7.1 Net INF purchases 0.0 15.4 -2.4 3.0 -2.9 -6.6 -4.0 Changein foreignassets -1.1 2.7 -0.5 -0.2 1.2 -0.6 -3.1 8DR allocation 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net domesticborrowing -2.1 4.4 33.8 5.2 -0.7 7.7 5.3 Commercialbanks (net) -4.6 1.2 29.0 1.7 -11.7 2.8 0.0 NationalInsurance Scheme 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.5 4.9 5.3 Not ECCB position 0.9 2.2 2.2 -1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other borrowing 1.4 1.0 2.4 1.7 -0.5 0.0 0.0 Unidentifiedfinancing 3.6 -2.1 0.1 5.5 -1.4 -4.7 1.3

Sources.Ministry of Finance$Planning and Developmentand mission estimates. - 44 -

Table5.2. GREMNAD- CENTRAL SOVERNNENT REVENUES

(EC$eillion)

Budget 1980 1981 1982 1983 1904 1985 19Db

TotalRevenue 57.7 63.0 74.4 81.3 87.4 100.4 108.1

Currentrevenue 57.5 62.7 74.4 81.3 87.3 100.4 108.0

Taxrevenue 51.6 54.3 65.8 70.4 77.2 91.0 93.5

Taxeson incone 14.5 16.6 20.5 20.0 22.2 21.6 5.2 Companies 8.2 7.8 9.6 8.3 6.8 6.8 1.8 Individuals 6.3 B.1 9.8 10.7 14.3 13.8 3.2 Othera/ 0.0 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.2 CompanyLevy bl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 Taxeson property 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 2.1 0.1 Taxeson domestic transaction 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.3 4.7 6.6 7.5 Notorvehicles 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.3 3.9 4.6 Sevices 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.2 Business&other licenses 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 Excise 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taxon Petrol bl 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 Taxeson imports 21.9 22.9 31.6 37.5 41.0 53.5 26.6 Importduties 12.1 11.0 11.8 10.4 12.2 17.8 21.9 Stampduty 7.3 8.1 12.0 16.8 15.5 18.3 3.0 Consumptionduty 2.5 3.6 5.7 5.9 6.7 8.6 1.1 Internationalairport levy 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.0 6.2 8.4 0.5 Packagetax 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 Taxeson exports 4.8 5.2 4.0 3.7 3.2 0.4 1.5 Foreignexchange tax 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.0 5.2 6.8 3.7 ValueAdded Tax b/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.6

Non-taxrevenue 5.9 8.4 8.6 10.9 10.1 9.4 14.5

Interestand rents 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 ECCOprofits 1,9 2.2 3.0 3.6 2.5 2.1 2.0 PostOffice 2.1 2.4 2.2 3.0 3.2 1.9 4.5 Airportfees 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 14 0.3 Governmentdepartments 0.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 3.4 3.2 6.4 Othercl 0.5 1.2 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.2

Capitalrevenue from saleof existingasets 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 a/ Includesvithholding tax andtax oninterests paid bybanks. Thelatter tax as removedfrom Jaiuary 1984. bl Introducedas part of fiscal reformpragras. c/ Includesreimbursments and misellaneous.

SourcessNinistry of Financeand mission estimates. - 43-

Table 5.3: GRENADA- CENTRALGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE DY ECONOMICCLASSIFICATION a/ (EC$million)

Budget 1980 1981 1962 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total Expenditure 97.1 139.2 175.2 146.6 154.2 178.4 208.9 ;;;;I^ --- _____-i-:;___ ------_ ___.___.... _____ ------._____------

CurrentExpenditure 59.6 64.4 71.6 74.4 86.3 98.6 98.4 ._---______--___ . _ ... __... ------...... ------__ Personaleooluments 32.4 36.0 34.3 38.9 47.0 55.4 49.3 Wagesand salar1#9 - 32.5 30.6 35.2 44.1 52.4 45.6 Traveland other - 3.5 3.7 3.7 2.9 2.8 3.7 Purchasesof goods services 14.2 14.8 17.1 16.1 16.0 14.5 16.9 InterestPaymerts 3.3 3.2 7.4 7.4 10.8 8.6 11.1 External 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.3 5.9 4.8 6.8 Domestic 2.1 1.4 5.0 4.1 4.9 3.8 4.3 Domestictransfers 8.4 9.2 10.6 10.5 9.1 16.9 15.7 Pensions 2.4 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.6 5.2 7.0 Contributionsto INS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.5 1.3 Other 6.0 4.1 7.0 6.1 3.6 11.2 7.4 Transfersabroad 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.5 3.4 3.2 5.4

CapitalExpenditure 37.5 74.8 103.4 92.2 67.9 80.0 110.5

Fixed capitalformation cl 35.9 69.9 75.8 70.5 54.7 72.4 102.9 Acquisitionof assetsd/ 0.0 1.3 9.4 5.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 Transfersto consolidated publicsector ... 3.6 15.1 10.6 9.9 5.0 5.0 Other transfers& net lending 1.6 0.0 3.3 6.1 2.6 2.6 2.6

.1 Dataare expressedon a cashbasis; there as an arrearsbuild-up of EC$12 millionin 1983 and arrearspayment of EC$3 millionin 1984 and EC$1.4million in 1985. b/ Includesexpenditure on the People'sRevolutionary Army in 1981-83. c/ Includestransfers to grower'sassociations and the consolidated q d/ Includesacquisition of NCI sharesin 1982 and SBC sharesin 1983. SourcesMinistry of Financeland staff estimates. - 46 -

Table 5.4: GRENADA- FUNCTIONALCLASSIFICATION OF CENTRALGOVERNMENT ------CURRENTEXPENDITURE a/

1981 1982 1993 1984 1985 ------__----- (In millionsof East Caribbeandollars) ------Total currentexpenditure 64.4 71.6 74.4 96.3 98.6

Generalpublic services 17.6 17.9 16.6 23.7 27.2 Defense 4.7 5.2 5.5 0.0 0.0 Education 12.0 14.4 16.5 17.6 19.2 Health 9.6 9.7 11.2 12.6 13.7 Social security& welfare 3.1 3.6 4.8 5.0 4.8 Other socialservices 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.8 Economicservices 11.1 9.7 8.6 13.0 19.5 Interestpayments 3.2 7.4 7.4 10.8 9.2 Other 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.1 4.2

(In percentof total)

Generalpublic services 27.3 25.0 22.3 27.5 27.6 Defense 7.3 7.3 7.4 0.0 0.0 Education 18.6 20.1 22.2 20.4 19.5 Health 14.9 13.5 15.1 14.6 13.9 Socialsecurity & welfare 4.8 5.0 6.5 5.8 4.9 Other socialservices 1.1 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.8 Economicservices 17.2 13.5 11.6 15.1 19.8 Interestpayments 5.0 10.3 9.9 12.5 9.3 Other 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.2

------__--- a/ Expressedon a cash basis.

SourcesiMinistry of Financeland staff estimates. - 47 -

Table 5.5i GRENADA- EXTERNAL PRANTS TO CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

(In millionsof East Caribbeandollars) - - - - - …------…------1981 1992 1993 1984 1995

Totalgrants 34.9 45.0 34.6 68.7 81.1

Currentgrants 0.9 2.6 3.2 28.6 19.5 Algeria 0.9 2.6 2.7 0.0 0.0 STABEX 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.4 1.5 USAID 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2 18.0

Capitalgrants 34.0 42.4 31.4 40.1 61.6

CIDA 0.0 2.5 4.0 4.8 7.8 EDF 4.0 1.0 1.2 2.7 2.4 USAID 0.3 1.7 0.0 31.0 47.6 Cuba 18.9 32.8 21.1 0.0 0.0 o.w.t airport 14.0 26.0 18.8 0.0 0.0 Syria 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Libya 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iraq 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 USSR 3.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 GermanDemocratic Republic 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.9 0.3 1.1 1.6 3.8

SourcesiMinistry of Financeland missionestimates. - 48 - Page I of 2

Table 5.6i GRENADA- SUMMARYOPERATIONS OF THE PUBLICSECTOR

(ECS million) …------__------

1981 1982 1993 1994 1985 e------__------I. ConsolidatedPublic Sector

Currentrevenue 63.9 79.6 91.7 123.7 129.5 o.w. hudgetarygrants 0.9 2.6 3.2 28.6 19.5 Currentexpenditure 64.4 71.6 74.6 86.8 99.4

Currentaccount balance -0.5 8.0 17.1 36.9 29.1

Capitalexpenditure 74.4 106.4 94.6 67.4 93.1

Overallsurplus/deficit (-) -74.9 -99.4 -77.5 30.5 -53.9

Financing 74.9 99.4 77.5 30.5 53.9

Externalgrants 34.0 42.4 31.4 40.1 61.6 External(net) 39.0 21.9 40.0 9.2 -5.9 Domestic(net) 2.3 33.7 7.0 -17.0 -5.4 Others (net) -0.4 0.4 -0.9 -0.9 3.7

I1.Central Government 7______Currentrevenue 63.9 77.0 84.5 116.0 119.9 o.w. budgetarygrants 0.9 2.6 3.2 28.6 19.5 Currentexpenditure 64.4 71.6 74.4 86.3 98.6

Currentaccount balance -0.5 5.4 10.1 29.7 21.3 ------

Cap. expenditure& net lending 74.8 103.6 92.2 67.9 90.0 o.w.s Fixed capitalformation 69.2 95.0 91.7 58.3 72.6 Transfersto rest of publicsector 5.6 9.6 10.5 9.6 7.4

Overallsurplus/deficit (-) -75.3 -98.2 -82.1 -38.2 -58.7 ______------

Financing 75.3 9982 92.1 39.2 58.7 ______------Externalgrants 34.0 42.4 31.4 40.1 61.6 External(net) 39.0 21.9 40.0 9.2 -5.9 Domestic(net) 2.3 33.9 10.7 -10.1 3.0 Others (net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 e------__---- - 49 Pap 2 of 2

Table5.6t UREIAM- SUNUP OfRATIUO Of TIE PUILIC SECIOR

mECidllion)

1981 1982 1983 1994 19M

111.National Inurance IbuJb/

Rmvenue 4.3 6.9 5.8 Contributions 3.5 5.8 5.6 Other 0.8 1.1 0.2

Expenditure 0.2 0.5 0.8

CurrentI overallbalance 4.1 6.4 5.0

Financing -4.1 -6.4 -5.0

Oaks nMet) -0.0 -2.4 -2.0 CentralGovernment -3.1 -3.5 -4.9 Other -0.2 -0.5 1.9

IV. NonfinancialPublic Enterpris c/

Revenue 17.0 22.5 23.6 23.2 26.3 Expmnditure 17.9 19.9 20.7 22.4 23.5

Currentsurplusideficit 0.0 2.6 2.9 0.8 2.8

Capitaltransfers froe C6 dl 5.6 9.6 10.5 9.6 7.4

Capitalexpenditure 5.2 11.4 12.9 9.1 10.5

Overallsurplus/deficit 1-) 0.4 -0.2 0.5 1.3 -0.3

Financing -0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.3 0.3

Domstic(net) -0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.3 0.3 Bankse/ 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -1.5 Othr -0.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.3 1.9 a/Includes capital transfers toGroer's Association. b/The National Insurance Board started operations inApril 1993. c/Includes Central ater Commission, Grenada Electricity Service,Grenada Telephone Co., Grenada Port Authority, Narketingand National Importing board, and Grenada Sugar Factory. dlIncludes foreign grants and loans obtained by the 6overn- mentand transferred to enterprisesconcerned. a/From banking data.

Sourcesshinistry of Finance;National Insurance Board; and staff estimates. - 50 -

Table6.1i GRENADA- COMMERCIALBANK OPERATIONS (EC$million) ------_------_------_-----__------__------Decembor31

1980 1981 1982 1983 1994 1985 …------_----__------__------Not foreignassets 7.5 10.0 -15.6 -9.6 40.0 39.8 ------Assets 37.4 43.7 20.7 19.2 66.1 67.6 Foreigncurrency holdings- 2.6 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 Claimsan ECCB 10.0 16.2 5.4 6.6 44.5 47.2 o.Cw. currencyholdings 5.6 5.6 4.6 5.8 9.7 9.2 Clims on ECCD area banks 10.3 7.6 5.9 2.5 6.3 0.8 Claimson banks abroad 14.5 10.9 7.9 5.9 11.2 15.2 Other 0.0 7.4 0.0 2.0 1.9 2.4 Liabilities 29.9 33.7 36.3 2898 26.1 27.8 Balancedue to ECCB 0.0 0.0 2.5 3.1 0.0 0.0 Balancedue to ECCBarea banks 4.3 4.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 Balancedue to banks abroad 7.0 0.3 4.9 2.7 1.9 2.4 Nonresidentdeposits 18.6 21.4 21.5 23.0 24.3 25.3 Demand 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.2 3.8 savings 13.2 15.6 15.4 15.9 16.5 16.3 Time 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.6 5.2

Net domesticassets 96.5 99.3 129.1 121.4 93.4 118.9 ------Not credit to CentralGovernment 15.0 16.2 45.2 40.9 18.4 21.2 Treasury bills 2.9 2.9 5.7 6.7 6.1 5.9 Debentures 2.9 2.6 7.5 10.6 9.4 9.4 Loans & advances 0.5 1.9 9.8 8.6 7.3 9.5 Overdraft 3.8 4.1 4.6 3.7 1.4 2.0 Specialdeposit requirement b/ 10.5 11.3 22.4 23.2 0.0 0.0 Governmontdeposits (-) -5.4 -6.5 -3.8 -3.9 -5.9 -5.6 o.w.s depositsin foreign currency 4.2 5.0 2.3 1.4 1.1 Net creditto other publicsector -0.8 1.7 3.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 Credit 2.0 3.3 5.8 8.3 7.2 7.4 DepositC-) -2.9 -1.6 -2.2 -3.0 -5.3 -5.9 Net creditto nonbankfinancial intermediaries -2.0 -2.5 -4.9 -5.2 -5.3 -7.1 Credit 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.8 0.5 Deposit C-) -2.3 -3.0 -5.3 -5.7 -7.1 -7.6 Credit to private sector 84.4 87.3 99.7 89.0 97.5 127.4 Interbank float 4.4 4.8 7.4 4.6 6b7 8.6 Claims 17.1 19.0 27.8 21.2 21.3 23.7 Liabilities 12.7 14.2 20.4 16.6 14.6 15.1 Net unclassified assets -4.5 -9.2 -12.0 -21.2 -25.8 -32.7 Assets 13.9 19.0 16.5 14.4 14.3 15.1 Liabilities 18.4 27.2 28.5 35.6 40.1 47.8

Liabilities to private sector c/ 96.5 96.2 96.6 97.6 114.1 153.1

Demanddeposits 30.2 26.3 20.8 19.0 25.0 27.5 Savings deposits 53.4 57.3 60.4 60.3 69.1 92.8 Time deposits 12.9 12.6 15.4 18.3 20.0 42.9

------__------__------a/ Includesthe local branchesof two foreignbanks, the National Commercial Dank# the Grenada Dank of Commerceand the Cooperative Dank. b/ In March 1984, specialdeposits were transforredfrom the Central Governmentto ECCB and have since been repurtedas a claim on the ECCU ratherthan on the CentralGovernment. c/ Deposits of public entities and financial institutions are excluded; deposits of community boards are included in demanddeposits.

Sourcos: Ministry of Finance and staff estimates. - 51 -

iable 1.1: GRENADA- PRODUCTION OFHAJOR CROPS

(inthousands ofpounds, unless otherwise indicated)

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

IraditionaleKport crops ______Bananas 25609 22008 20236 19725 19690 Cocoa 6409 4453 5034 4421 4677 Nutmeg 6767 4959 4023 5189 5680 "ace 507 248 300 491 480 Coconuts(dryl 529 393 702 589 619 6inger 13 it 17 13 14

Fruits

Avocados 3139 3296 3469 3500 3570 Bluggo 266 279 108 788 421 Grapefruit 4845 4913 4734 4800 4795 Limes 930 917 743 337 332 Mangoes 4059 4262 3813 3900 4139 Oranges 2168 2276 2056 2150 1899 Paw-paw 101 81 78 223 269 Plantain 553 737 826 2019 2387 Sapodilla 545 409 436 1006 690 S8ursop 1045 1149 1229 1563 2462 Sugarapples 257 231 231 240 337

Rootcrops

Dasheens& eddoes 526 835 063 776 607 Sweetpotatoes 596 654 609 240 322 Tannias 326 342 310 209 140 Yams 1063 1116 1004 1100 891

Field crops& vegetables

Breadfruit 3700 3300 2065 3163 3300 Cabbage 66 80 70 134 133 Carrots 58 59 58 67 100 Chives 16 2 lb 15 7 Corn 1037 933 868 628 615 Cucumbers 71 89 90 47 76 Lettuce 59 56 52 36 67 Peasand beans 1829 1646 1424 1983 1347 Pepper(hot) 3 3 2 3 2 Pepper(sweeti 39 43 36 25 29 Puepkin 452 543 482 432 299 Sorrel 16 9 14 14 18 Tomatoes 99 119 109 97 97

SourcesNinistry ofAgriculturel andStatistical Division. - 52 -

able 1.2:GRENADA - SELECTED TOURISN DATA

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Total arrivals (O000) 175.0 110.6 93.3 82.7 73.8 142.7

Stayovervisitors 29.4 25.1 23,2 23.4 29.9 39.4 Cruiseshippassengers 145.6 77.6 62.1 50.2 34.2 90.7 NonresidentBrenadians ... 7.9 9.0 9.1 10.7 13.6

Averagedays of stay per

visitor

Stayovervisitors 8.5 9.5 9.5 8.5 8.5 9.5 NonresidentGrenadians 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

Volumeof visitors

(thousanddaysl ... 354.5 326.9 330.1 390.1 536.7

Stayoverpassengers ... 213.4 197.2 199.9 245.7 328.1 Cruiseship passengers a/ ... 62.1 49.7 40.2 27.4 72.6 Nonresident6renadians ... 79.0 80.0 91.0 107.0 136.0

eighteddaily expenditure

per visitor (USdollar)

Stayoverpassengers . 59.5 59.9 61.4 63.0 65.9 Cruiseshippassengers ... 24.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Nonresident6renadians ... 14.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

Totalexpenditure by visitor

(millionsof USdollars)

Stayoverpassengers ... 12.5 11.6 12.2 15.5 21.6 Cruiseship passengers ... 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.7 2.2 Nonresident6tenadians ... 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.0

Memorandumitens:

Stayovervisitors by countryof origin ('000) UnitedStates 6.8 5.1 5.0 5.3 8.3 8.9 Canada 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 Nest Indies 7.7 8.5 9.7 10.9 13.8 21.3 United Kingdom ... 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 Germany ... 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.5 Other 6.2 4.0 2.7 2.6 5.4 3.3

al Eightypercent of cruiseshippassengers are assumedto go ashore.

Sources:6renada Tourist Board; and staff estimates. - 53 -

iable 7.3: GRENADA- SELECTE', INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

i 000)

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 beer (bulk gallons) 270.0 272.4 246.8 247.1 295.8 Cigarettes(cartons) 98.8 104.3 127.7 125.5 120.2 Clothing a/ 5940.0 6480.0 4860.0 1890.0 1747.3 Coconutmeal tpounds) 215.7 226.2 232.2 137.2 165.3 Edible oil (gallons) 69.8 57.1 56.7 29.3 32.9 Flour ('00pounds) 108.6 123.0 104.1 105.2 109.6 Laundrysoap (pounds) 190.2 136.2 57.0 48.6 86.5 Halt (gallons) 136.1 125.3 103.0 b6.3 87.5 Poultry (l00pounds) 27.7 32.1 35.0 39.5 44.9 Rum(proof gallons) 77.1 78.2 72.4 50.9 66.8 Softdrinks (cases) 91.8 115.1 167.5 248.4 304.2 Stout (bulk gallons) 43.2 74.3 55.1 65.1 70.5 Wheatbran ('00 pounds) - 43.4 29.3 29.7 40.7 ai Yalueof exportsin thousandsof ECM.

Source:Statistics Division. - 54 - Table8.11 6RENADA - CONSUNER PRICE INDS!

(January1979 x 100)

Weights 1900 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

1. Period Averages

All items 1.000 136.2 161.8 174.4 185.1 195.6 200.5 _ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _-._-.-....~ ------...... ----- _-- -- Foodand beverfges 0.590 134.8 163.9 172.4 182.2 190.4 190.8 Tobaccoand alcohol 0.025 125.6 149.6 168.0 181.0 189.7 192.2 Clothing& footwear 0.080 140.8 172.7 187.6 199.3 229.4 254.6 Housing u.OSS 111.4 115.4 128.0 149.3 136.2 129.3 Fueland light 0.060 170.6 186.4 186.5 192.1 186.1 191.3 Furniture& appliances 0.030 109.3 163.1 261.9 274.8 330.7 409.4 Householdsupplies 0.035 154.1 165.1 193.5 219.8 221.0 208.3 Transport 0.04u 162.4 183.1 202.5 217.7 216.2 217.3 Otherservices 0.075 128.5 144.7 150.2 158.4 104.3 194.7

(Percentagechanges)

All items 21.2 18.8 7.8 6.1 5.7 2.5

Foodand beverages 19.0 21.6 5.2 5.7 4.5 0.2 Tobaccoand alcohol 20. 19.1 12.3 7.7 4.8 1.3 Clothing& footNear 21.1 22.7 8.6 5.7 15.7 11.0 Housing 9.5 3.6 10.9 16.6 -8.9 -5.1 fuel andlight 37.0 9.3 0.1 -2.4 2.2 2.8 Furniture& appliances 9.1 49.2 60.6 4.9 20.3 23.8 Householdsupplies 28.7 7.1 17.2 13.6 0.5 -5.7 Transport 37.0 12.7 10.6 7.5 -0.7 0.5 Otherservices 25.5 12.6 3.8 5.5 16.4 5.6

1.End of Period

All items 151.7 167.8 179.4 191.1 198.0 201.6

Foodand beverages 150.7 170.8 177.2 186.5 189.7 191.1 Tobaccoand alcohol 139.7 153.2 174.6 187.4 103.9 189.5 Clothing& footwear 166.2 181.2 188.7 212.0 240.1 262.3 Housing 116.4 114.1 145.7 146.1 128.0 132.6 Fuel andlight 179.2 189.1 184.7 184.8 187.8 192.7 Furniture& appliances 156.4 171.3 264.2 310.2 397.8 408.6 Householdsupplies 161.1 169.8 211.3 225.8 215.3 186.1 Transport 170.6 195.6 205.1 216.2 216.2 219.5 Otherservices 140.5 146.5 151.5 172.4 190.8 206.1

(Percentagechanges)

All iteas 10.O 10.6 6o9 6.5 3.6 1.8 ...... ---._...... ---- .... ------. --- Foodand beverages 13.3 13.3 3.7 5.2 1.7 0.7 Tobaccoand alcohol 9.7 9.7 14.0 7.3 -44.6 81.4 Clothing& footwear 9.0 9.0 4.1 12.3 . 13.3 9.2 Housing -2.0 -2.0 27.7 0.3 -12.4 3.o Fueland light 5.5 5.5 -2.3 0.1 1.6 2.6 Furniture& appliances 9.5 9.5 54.2 17.4 28.2 2.7 Householdsupplies 5.4 5.4 24.4 6.9 -4.7 -13.6 transport 14.7 14.7 4.9 5.4 0.0 1.5 Otherservices 4.3 4.3 3.4 13.8 10.7 8.u

Source:Statistics Division. IBRD20301 0 0 61°1W 61 456W 61q45W 61°35'W

1201N G R E N A DA 1201N

2000and Over _ w 2ecow Sluoun

,0, 1000

0 Main Roads / -~~~~Pari~ Boundasip River e w M A RCapi

0 MainTowns * 12io * Airport T![ot 120I1Nj

-12005'N ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~12006'N

ST.GEORGE'S 61°35'W

C5 , wi CARRIACOU

111*01

POIN"SALINES INTERNATIONALAIRPORT * LLI .

12OWN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ZW

0 1 2 3 4

VI 111_"-__"^Id > O~~ t ~~ 2 3

t 61iWw 61045'W 8104,'W I ISOUTh AUCRICA JULY 1986