May 2018

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council’s Interaction with the Poland will hold the presidency of the Council force of the Group of Five for the Sahel. High Commissioner for in May. An open debate on the Council’s role The annual briefing by force commanders Human Rights in upholding international law is planned, to be will be by the commanders of three peacekeep- 2 Status Update since our chaired by the country’s President Andrzej Duda, ing operations in Africa: MINUSMA, UNAMID April Forecast with Secretary-General António Guterres expect- and UNMISS. 4 Syria ed to brief. A ministerial-level open debate on the The Council will continue to follow closely the 6 Bosnia and protection of civilians in armed conflict is also events in Syria and will receive the three monthly Herzegovina expected, with Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs briefings on political and humanitarian devel- 8 South Sudan Jacek Czaputowicz presiding and briefers includ- opments and the use of chemical weapons. Also ing Guterres and Director-General of the ICRC with regards to the Middle East, in addition to the 9 Sudan/South Sudan Yves Daccord. monthly briefing and consultations on Israel/Pal- 10 Libya The Council is due to renew the mandate of estine, the Council will hear briefings on Lebanon 11 Peacekeeping UNISFA in Abyei and AMISOM in Somalia, as and on the work of UNAMI in Iraq. 12 Sudan (Darfur) well as renew the 2206 South Sudan sanctions Two European issues will be considered in regime and the mandate of the 2206 South Sudan May: Kosovo, through the quarterly briefing, and 13 Kosovo Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts. Bosnia and Herzegovina, through the biannual 15 Lebanon Other African issues that will be considered debate. 16 Somalia include: Also in May, the Council will hold an infor- 17 Counter-Terrorism • Burundi, with a focus on the political situation; mal meeting with the EU Political and Security 18 Guinea-Bissau • Guinea-Bissau, an update on the work of Committee. UNIOGBIS; On Asia, the Council will receive a briefing on 20 Rule of Law • Libya, briefings by ICC Prosecutor, by the its visiting mission to Bangladesh and Myanmar 21 Protection of Civilians chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Commit- and will be briefed in consultations on the work of 22 G5 Sahel Joint Force tee, and on UNSMIL by its head; the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee. 24 Burundi • Somalia, a briefing on UNSOM; The annual briefing by the chairs of the 25 Iraq • South Sudan, with a briefing on UNMISS and three counter-terrorism subsidiary bodies is also on the work of the 2206 South Sudan Sanc- expected. 27 DPRK (North Korea) tions Committee; There will also likely be two Arria-formula • Sudan, a briefing on UNAMID; and meetings: on children and armed conflict and on • Sahel, a briefing on the activities of the joint the 2000 Arusha Accord on Burundi.

In Hindsight: The Security Council’s Interaction with the High Commissioner for Human Rights

In March, an event took place that has raised a March 2011. Members gathered in the chamber 27 April 2018 number of questions about the relationship of the on the afternoon of 19 March to receive the brief- This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. Security Council with the High Commissioner for ing, but Russia objected to holding the meeting Human Rights. Seven Security Council members and asked for a procedural vote on the adoption For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please requested a briefing by the High Commissioner on of the agenda (each formal Council meeting starts subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” the human rights situation in Syria in what would with the adoption of its agenda, but this is done by series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. have been only the second public briefing focused acclamation and unanticipated calls for a vote are specifically on the human rights situation in Syria extremely rare). The agenda failed to receive the since the beginning of the country’s civil war in nine positive votes needed for a procedural decision

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Security Council’s Interaction with the High Commissioner for Human Rights to be adopted (Bolivia, China, Kazakhstan and the usefulness of receiving information and members’ reluctance to involve the High Russia voted against and Côte d’Ivoire, Equa- analysis from the High Commissioner, and Commissioner in Council discussions at the torial Guinea and Ethiopia abstained). As a had come to accept that an understanding end of the previous decade. Austria was to result, the formal meeting was called off and of the human rights situation was relevant hold the presidency of the Council in Novem- High Commissioner Zeid bin Ra’ad al-Husse- to reaching political settlements of the vari- ber 2009 when a regular debate on the protec- in briefed later that afternoon under the infor- ous conflicts on the Council’s agenda. Each tion of civilians in armed conflict was sched- mal Arria format. of the permanent members sought a High uled. Although at that point, the practice of This was a surprising outcome because ever Commissioner’s briefing at some point dur- inviting the High Commissioner as one of the since the then-High Commissioner for Human ing this period. briefers in these debates had been dropped, Rights Mary Robinson addressed the Security In addition to the practice of regularly inter- the Austrian Permanent Representative Council on 16 September 1999, the Council acting with the High Commissioner and his decided to extend an invitation to then-High has sought the High Commissioner’s advice or her top advisors that has been established Commissioner Navi Pillay to brief. Through on multiple occasions. Robinson spoke during for nearly 20 years, the Security Council high- extensive prior consultations with other mem- an open debate on the protection of civilians lighted the value of such briefings in the unani- bers of the Council, he secured their consent. in armed conflict and covered human rights mously adopted resolution 2171 of 21 August When the next regular debate on the protec- violations related to several situations on the 2014. In an operative paragraph, the resolution tion of civilians was to be held in July 2010, Council’s agenda at the time, including Angola, states that the Council “[r]ecognizes the impor- Austria conducted informal consultations East Timor and Sierra Leone. tant role the Office of the United Nations High with other members of the Council and again That first meeting would not have hap- Commissioner for Human Rights…can play in obtained their agreement. Agreeing to invite pened without the advocacy of various actors, conflict prevention”, adding that briefings on the High Commissioner to the November including several members of the Council, human rights violations play a role in contrib- 2010 debate proved much easier, with Austria human rights organisations, and, most of all, uting to early awareness of potential conflict. again acting as the lead advocate and securing Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Over the next Although the Council has formally recog- consent. From that point on, inviting the High several years, the High Commissioner (or the nised the usefulness of having input from and Commissioner became a regular practice, and Deputy or Acting High Commissioner) was dialogue with the High Commissioner for for the next several years, the High Commis- invited to meet with the Council either in a Human Rights, accepting the value of human sioner was always among the briefers during formal meeting or in consultations on several rights input and of interaction with the top UN these debates. The open debate on the pro- occasions. In 2001, the UK organised an out- human rights officials has not always been uni- tection of civilians became a platform for the of-town retreat focused on the Security Coun- versal and occasionally needed some concerted High Commissioner to brief on a number of cil and human rights with the participation of diplomatic work. As the Council found earlier issues considered by his or her office as most the High Commissioner. this year, the willingness to hear out this actor urgent in the context of international peace While a regular feature since 1999, the is not something that can be taken for granted. and security. More recently, however, the practice of interacting with the top human The history of this relationship perhaps offers different presidencies holding this thematic rights official has experienced ups and downs some lessons learnt. open debate have chosen to focus the debates in terms of frequency and the ease with which The Council as a whole took more than on aspects of protection other than human different meetings have been arranged. From five years to accept the usefulness of hearing a rights, and the High Commissioner has not 2006 through 2008, there was only one meet- briefing from the High Commissioner in one been among the invited briefers. ing. During that period, different Council of its open debates. From April 1994 when Whether as part of an open debate or as a members suggested hearing from the High the first High Commissioner, José Ayala Lasso, briefing on a single topic, there are likely to be Commissioner on various occasions, but took office until the first briefing in September some members of the Council who will con- they encountered considerable resistance 1999, several Council members as well as UN tinue to see the usefulness in receiving human from their counterparts and did not push the Secretariat officials and NGOs worked to con- rights information and engaging in a human matter further. Starting in 2009, the trend vince the reluctant Council members that this rights discussion when seeking to mitigate or changed, and invitations to the High Com- interaction would be useful to the Council in end conflict. As history has shown it will be missioner began to be issued several times its efforts to be more effective in maintaining up to these members to ensure that the long- each year, with the most to date being 17 in international peace and security. established practice of receiving briefings from 2015. Most members, including those who In this context, of particular interest may the High Commissioner continues to be an had been quite reluctant initially, appreciated be how an elected member overcame some integral part of the work of the Council.

Status Update since our April Forecast

Central African Republic temporary operating base of MINUSCA in resulted in one Mauritanian peacekeeper killed On 3 April, Council members issued a Tagbara (prefecture of Ouaka) on the same and 11 others injured (SC/13275). On 11 April, press statement condemning the attack on a day, by suspected anti-Balaka elements, which Council members issued a press statement

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Status Update since our April Forecast condemning an attack on MINUSCA in Ban- in Salisbury, UK on Sergei Skripal, a former implementation of resolution 1540 remains gui the day before by armed groups, which Russian intelligence officer who spied for one of the main priorities of the committee. He resulted in one Rwandan peacekeeper killed the UK, and his daughter (S/PV.8224). The said that 180 out of 193 member states have and eight others injured (SC/13291). On 18 Council reconvened to discuss this matter submitted their national reports and that the April, AU Commissioner for Peace and Secu- on 18 April. Izumi Nakamitsu, High Repre- committee will continue to work on achieving rity Smail Chergui (via video teleconference) sentative for Disarmament Affairs, provided universal reporting as soon as possible. Solíz and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeep- information on the 4 March incident from also said that in March 2017 the committee ing Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed the OPCW (S/PV.8237). revised its assistance template to better suit the Council members in an informal interactive states in developing their requests and in turn dialogue on their joint visit to Sudan and the Mali providing them with the effective assistance. CAR from 7 to 13 April. During the visit to the On 5 April, Council members issued a press CAR from 10 to 13 April, Lacroix and Chergui statement condemning an attack against Women, Peace and Security met in Bangui with senior government officials, a MINUSMA camp in Aguelhok, which On 16 April, the Council held an open debate including President Faustin-Archange Toua- caused the death of two Chadian peacekeep- (S/PV.8234) on the Secretary-General’s déra and Prime Minister Simplice Sarandji. ers and injured ten others (SC/13281). The annual report on Conflict-Related Sexual They also met with members of the National next day, Council members condemned an Violence (S/2018/250). The debate focused Assembly, and jointly chaired with the ECCAS attack against a MINUSMA vehicle in Gao on “preventing sexual violence in conflict a meeting of the International Support Group which caused the death of a Nigerien peace- through empowerment, gender equality for the CAR, which is intended to buttress keeper (SC/13283). On 11 April, the Coun- and access to justice” and was chaired by international efforts to support the peace pro- cil was briefed (S/PV.8229) by Mahamat Ambassador Gustavo Meza-Cuadra (Peru). cess and provide humanitarian relief. Saleh Annadif, the Secretary-General’s Spe- The briefers were Deputy Secretary-General cial Representative and head of MINUSMA, Amina Mohammed; Special Representative Haiti who presented the Secretary-General’s report of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence On 3 April, the Council held its regular debate (S/2018/273). The Foreign Minister of Mali, in Conflict Pramila Patten; and Razia Sul- on Haiti with a briefing by Under-Secretary- Tiéman Hubert Coulibaly, also participated. tana, Senior Researcher at Kaladan Press, on General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean- On 15 April, Council members condemned an behalf of the NGO Working Group on Wom- Pierre Lacroix (S/PV.8220). He presented to attack on a MINUSMA camp in Timbuktu the en, Peace and Security. the Council the main findings from the report day before, which caused the death of a Burki- (S/2018/241) on the latest strategic assess- nabe peacekeeper and injured others, including Yemen ment of MINUJUSTH, which also included Malian civilians, MINUSMA personnel, and On 17 April, the Council received a briefing the 11 benchmarks for the exit strategy and members of the French forces (SC/13298). On from the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for a transition to a non-peacekeeping UN pres- 18 April, Council members met in consulta- Yemen, Martin Griffiths, and Under-Secretary- ence in Haiti. In their statements, most Coun- tions, at the request of France, to be briefed on General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Low- cil members recognised the progress made the latest attacks against the mission. cock (S/PV.8235). The meeting was Griffiths’ over the past several years. However, there first briefing to the Council since becoming was also an emphasis on the importance of Great Lakes Region Special Envoy for Yemen in March. He said reforming the justice sector, strengthening the On 10 April, Special Envoy of the Secretary- that he planned to put to the Council within rule of law, and improving human rights. On General for the Great Lakes Region Said Djin- the next two months a framework for negotia- 10 April, the Council adopted resolution 2410 nit briefed the Council (S/PV.8227) on the lat- tions, while raising concerns about an escala- which extended the mandate of MINUJUSTH est report on the implementation of the Peace, tion in fighting, including over the prospect of for another year under Chapter VII and set a Security and Cooperation Framework for the intensive military operations against the port timeline for the gradual drawdown of formed DRC and the Region (S/2018/209). The meet- city of Hodeidah, which could derail politi- police units (S/PV.8226). The resolution out- ing was followed by consultations. The Coun- cal efforts. All members delivered their state- lined comprehensive reporting requirements cil issued a press statement on the same day, ments in the public chamber, and consulta- regarding the implementation of the resolu- calling for further engagement to address the tions that had been scheduled were not held. tion including progress assessments on the remaining challenges in implementation of On 5 April, Ahmed Himmiche was reappoint- drawdown and exit strategy. China and Russia the framework and stressing the importance of ed the Coordinator and finance expert of the abstained during the vote and voiced their con- opening political space to enable the full and 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee’s Panel of cern about designation of the mission’s man- free participation of political parties, civil soci- Experts (S/2018/305), leaving still pending the date under Chapter VII noting that the situa- ety, and the media (SC/13287). appointment of the armed groups expert (the tion in Haiti does not at the moment pose a regional, international humanitarian law, and threat to international peace and security. Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee) arms experts were appointed on 27 March On 12 April, Chair of the 1540 Committee (S/2018/272)). On 27 April, the Yemen Sanc- Use of Nerve Agent Sacha Sergio Llorenty Solíz (Bolivia) briefed tions Committee met to discuss with the com- On 5 April, the Security Council met at the the Council on the planned activities of the mittee’s Panel of Experts the panel’s work plan request of Russia to discuss developments committee including the new programme of for the coming year. related to the 4 March use of a nerve agent work. Solíz emphasised that reporting on the

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our April Forecast

Liberia Colombia Peacebuilding On 19 April, the Council held its final briefing On 19 April, the Council was briefed (S/ On 25 April, the Security Council held a high- on Liberia following the closure of UNMIL PV.8238) by Jean Arnault, Special Represen- level briefing on peacebuilding and sustaining on 30 March (S/PV.8239). A presidential state- tative of the Secretary-General and head of the peace to coincide with the two day high-lev- ment was adopted on UNMIL’s conclusion UN Verification Mission in Colombia, on the el General Assembly event (24-25 April) on (S/PRST/2018/8). Briefings were provided by Secretary-General’s latest report on Colombia peacebuilding and sustaining peace. Secretary- Alexander Zuev, Assistant Secretary-General (S/2018/279). The briefing was followed by General António Guterres, Secretary of State for Rule of Law and Security Institutions in the consultations. Óscar Naranjo, the Vice Presi- of Romania Dan Neculăescuas Chair of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations; Dep- dent of Colombia, participated in the meet- Peacebuilding Commission, and AU Commis- uty Ambassador Irina Schoulgin Nyoni (Swe- ing as well. In a press statement adopted later sioner for Peace and Security Smail Chergui den) on behalf of the PBC; and Chid Liberty, that day, Council members welcomed positive briefed (S/PV.8243). On 26 April, the Coun- the chief executive officer of “Liberty & Jus- developments and expressed concern about cil adopted resolution 2413 that mirrored the tice”. On 30 March, the mandate of UNMIL continued insecurity in some of the conflict- procedural resolution that the General Assem- ended after a nearly 15-year presence, having affected areas, in particular the killings of com- bly had negotiated for its high-level session on been established in September 2003 follow- munity and social leaders (SC/13310). continuing to consider and implement the rec- ing 14 years of civil war. The Secretary-Gener- ommendations and options in the Secretary- al submitted his final report on Liberia to the Afghanistan General’s 18 January report on peacebuilding Council on 13 April (S/2018/344). On 23 April, Council members issued a press and sustaining peace (A/72/707-S/2018/43). statement condemning the ISIL terrorist A concept note was prepared by Peru for the CAR-Sudan Informal Interactive attack on a voter registration center in Kabul Council meeting (S/2018/325). Dialogue that resulted in the deaths of at least 50 and On 18 April, Under-Secretary-General for injury to about 100 people (SC/13314). Israel/Palestine Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix On 26 April, Special Coordinator for the Mid- and AU Commissioner for Peace and Secu- Youth, Peace and Security dle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov rity Smail Chergui (via video teleconference) On 23 April, the Council held an open debate briefed at the quarterly open debate on Israel/ briefed Council members in an informal inter- on youth, peace and security (S/PV.8241). The Palestine (S/PV.8244). active dialogue on their joint visit to Sudan and lead author of the progress study on youth, the CAR from 7 to 13 April. While in Sudan, peace and security, Graeme Simpson, and the Western Sahara Lacroix and Chergui met with Sudanese For- Secretary-General’s Envoy on Youth, Jayath- On 17 April, the Council met in consultations eign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour and with ma Wickramanayake, briefed. Two civil soci- to be briefed by Special Representative for community leaders at a camp for displaced ety members also provided briefings: Sophia the Secretary-General and head of MINUR- persons near El Fasher, North Darfur. They Pierre-Antoine, a member of the Advisory SO Colin Stewart on the situation in Western also interacted with officials from the UN, the Council of the World Young Women’s Christian Sahara. During consultations, members con- AU, and the government regarding the work of Association and a board member of the FRIDA sidered the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNAMID. (For information concerning the Young Feminist Fund in Haiti, and Kessy Eko- Western Sahara (S/2018/277). On 27 April, the 10-13 April CAR part of the trip, see above, mo-Soignet, a youth activist and the Executive Council adopted resolution 2414 renewing the under Central African Republic.) Director of the Organisation URU in the CAR. mandate of MINURSO for six months.

Syria

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments the body’s most divisive periods in the post- In May, the Council expects to receive the Triggered by a 7 April alleged chemical weap- Cold War era. The attack, which reportedly monthly briefings on political and humanitar- ons attack on the city of Douma, in East- killed more than 40 civilians and injured hun- ian developments in Syria and on the use of ern Ghouta, the Security Council’s recent dreds, compelled the armed group Jaish al- chemical weapons. engagement on Syria has represented one of Islam, which had struggled to retain control

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2401 (24 February 2018) demanded that all parties cease hostilities in Syria. S/RES/2393 (19 December 2017) renewed the authorisation for cross-border and cross-line aid delivery. S/RES/2254 (18 December 2015) was on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) was on chemical weapons. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/369 (19 April 2018) was the monthly report on the humanitarian situation. Security Council Letters S/2018/333 (10 April 2018) was a letter by the Secretary-General on the need for the Council to fulfil its responsibility.S/2018/283 (28 March 2018) was an OPCW report on progress in the elimination of the Syrian chemical weapons programme. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8236 (17 April 2018) was a briefing by Lowcock on the humanitarian situation, particularly in Raqqa and Rukban. S/PV.8233 (14 April 2018) was a briefing by Guterres after the airstrikes launched by France, the UK and the US. S/PV.8231 (13 April 2018) was a briefing by Guterres on Syria. S/PV.8228 (11 April 2018) was the meeting at which three draft resolutions failed to be adopted, including one vetoed by Russia. S/PV.8225 (9 April 2018) was a briefing by Markram and de Mistura. S/PV.8221 (4 April 2018) was a briefing by Markram. Other S/2018/355 (14 April 2018) was a Russian draft resolution condemning the US “aggression” on Syria that failed to garner nine votes. S/2018/322 (10 April 2018) was a Russian draft resolution on the OPCW Douma investigation that failed to garner nine votes. S/2018/321 (10 April 2018) was a US draft resolution establishing UNIMI that was vetoed by Russia. S/2018/175 (10 April 2018) was a Russian draft resolution establishing UNIMI that failed to garner nine votes.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Syria of Douma, to agree to evacuate the area and The draft was not adopted because it got than 100 airstrikes against Syrian military surrender it to the government. only six affirmative votes (Bolivia, China, facilities that were reportedly involved in the After the alleged attack, the Council first Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan storage and production of chemical weap- met on 9 April. It received briefings by Spe- and Russia). Seven Council members voted ons. Following the attack, Russia requested a cial Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura and against (France, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, briefing by the Secretary-General on 14 April. the Deputy to the High Representative for Sweden, the UK and the US) and two At the Saturday meeting, Guterres reminded Disarmament Affairs, Thomas Markram. abstained (Côte d’Ivoire and Kuwait). Those member states of their obligation to act in line Council divisions were clearly visible at the who did not support the draft argued that it with the UN Charter and international law in meeting. While most Council members did not empower the proposed mechanism general, and he urged member states to show expressed outrage at the alleged attack, Rus- with the responsibility to assign accountability restraint and to avoid military escalation. sia denied that it had happened and called for the use of chemical weapons (leaving such A Russian draft tabled at the end of the it a provocation aimed at justifying military decisions instead to the Council) and because meeting condemned the “aggression against intervention in Syria. of methodological concerns that would have the Syrian Arab Republic by the US and its The next day, the Council failed to pass called into question its independence. allies in violation of international law and the three draft resolutions. Two were competing The third vote was on a Russian draft reso- UN Charter”. The draft was not adopted as versions by Russia and the US that would lution regarding the OPCW Douma investi- it garnered only three positive votes—Bolivia, have established a UN Independent Mecha- gation. The draft substantially modified ele- China and Russia. Four members—Equato- nism of Investigation (UNIMI) regarding ments of a Swedish draft circulated the day rial Guinea, Ethiopia, Kazakhstan and Peru— the use of chemical weapons. The US draft before in an attempt to broker a compromise. abstained and the remaining eight voted would have established a mechanism based Sweden asked to suspend the meeting and against the draft. on the recommendations provided by the hold consultations on the draft proposed by After these events, de Mistura undertook Secretary-General, in coordination with the Russia. While Sweden proposed a new ver- a series of consultations with key stakehold- Organization for the Prohibition of Chemi- sion of its text, the Russian draft was put to a ers with the aim of proactively ascertaining cal Weapons (OPCW), “based on the prin- vote unchanged after consultations. It failed the options for a meaningful re-launch of the ciples of impartiality, independence and to pass given the fact that it only garnered UN-facilitated political process. He briefed professionalism, to identify to the greatest five affirmative votes (Bolivia, China, Ethi- Council members informally on this process extent feasible, individuals, entities, groups, opia, Kazakhstan and Russia). There were at a 21-22 April retreat with the Secretary- or governments who were perpetrators, also four votes against (France, Poland, the General in Backåkra, Sweden. organizers, sponsors or otherwise involved UK and the US) and six abstentions (Côte The humanitarian situation in Syria in the use of chemical weapons, including d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Kuwait, Neth- continues to be critical. On 17 April, Mark chlorine or any other toxic chemical, in Syr- erlands, Peru and Sweden). Lowcock, the Under-Secretary-General for ia”. However, it was vetoed by Russia, which Throughout the week, concerns about Humanitarian Affairs, briefed the Council on argued that it did not address any of the the possibility of a military response to the the humanitarian situation in Syria. Although weaknesses of the OPCW-UN Joint Inves- alleged attack by the US and its allies sparked he focused mostly on Raqqa and Rukban, he tigative Mechanism. The draft garnered the request for two additional Council meet- also highlighted the precarious situation of 12 affirmative votes, two against (Bolivia ings. The first one took place in consultations those civilians still in Eastern Ghouta and in addition to Russia) and one abstention at the request of Bolivia, supported by China those who were evacuated to Idlib and Alep- (China). This was the 12th veto on Syria and Russia, on 12 April, and the second was po. In the lead-up to a 24-25 April confer- since the beginning of the conflict. a briefing the next day by Secretary-General ence in Brussels on supporting the future of The Russian draft had been circulated António Guterres at the request of Russia. Syria and the region, which was co-chaired on 23 January. It would have established the Guterres told the Council how in his contacts by the EU and the UN, Lowcock emphasised UNIMI for a period of one year from the date with the P5 he had expressed his deep con- the need to scale up funding to humanitar- the Council approved the terms of reference cerns about the risk that the situation could ian assistance in Syria, whose appeal was less recommended by the Secretary-General, in spiral out of control. He also quoted an 11 than 15 percent funded. coordination with the OPCW. It urged the April letter that he had sent to the Council. On the ongoing work to eliminate chemi- UNIMI to “fully ensure a truly impartial, In the letter, Guterres expressed his “deep cal weapons, in a 4 April briefing, Markram independent, professional and credible way disappointment that the Security Council told the Council about the planned destruc- to conduct its investigations on the basis of was unable to agree upon a dedicated mech- tion of two stationary aboveground chemical credible, verified and corroborated evidence, anism to attribute responsibility for the use weapons production facilities in Syria. The collected in the course of on-site visits”, and of chemical weapons in Syria”. He appealed OPCW continues to have concerns regarding it underlined “that the Security Council to the Council not to give up on efforts to the limited cooperation of the Syrian govern- will thoroughly assess the UNIMI’s conclu- agree upon a dedicated, impartial, objective ment in addressing the gaps, inconsistencies sions”. Although Council members met twice and independent mechanism for attributing and discrepancies identified in Syria’s initial to discuss the draft, Russia did not revise it responsibility and conveyed his readiness to declaration. After the alleged attack in Dou- to address any of the issues raised by other support such efforts. ma, an OPCW fact-finding mission deployed Council members before putting it in blue Later that day (13 April), the US, along to Syria and was able to collect samples from in early March. with France and the UK, carried out more two sites.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Syria

Human Rights-Related Developments Council or directly mobilise a mechanism for (the Netherlands) as a response to the use of Following the alleged chemical attack in Douma the investigation of alleged use of chemical chemical weapons. A third group of Coun- on 7 April, High Commissioner for Human Right and biological weapons, which was developed cil members emphasised the importance of Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said in a statement on 9 April, “The world is sitting idly by while their use in the late 1980s. Council members could abiding by the principles of the UN Char- is becoming normalized in Syria”. The Security also explore the idea of referring the issue ter and international law but did not address Council is “paralyzed by the use of the veto”, he to the General Assembly for action through directly the legality of the airstrikes. said, adding that “[t]he world—and in particular “Uniting for Peace”. At press time, it did not seem that the P3 the veto-wielding States on the Security Coun- While divided on this issue for seven years were planning further military action in Syria, cil—need to wake up, and wake up fast, to the irreparable damage that is being done to one of now, the Council has been able to unite but the polarisation in the Council reached the most important planks of global arms control around key issues during that time, such as its peak in April and is negatively affecting all and prevention of human suffering”. setting the agenda for a political process and the tracks of the dossier—chemical weapons, The Commission of Inquiry on Syria released a authorising cross-border deliveries. As the humanitarian and political. A draft resolu- press statement on 13 April, expressing its grave political climate deteriorates, there is a risk of tion circulated by the P3 on 14 April includes concern over the continuing reports of the use of chemical weapons in Syria and saying that as undermining these Council decisions, just as language on all three tracks, which Council of January, the commission had reported on 34 the mandate of the OPCW-UN Joint Inves- members had attempted to keep separate documented incidents of the use of chemical tigative Mechanism was discontinued. After before. The increasingly vitriolic exchanges weapons by various parties to the conflict. The discussing Syria at a retreat with the Secre- in the chamber between the US and the UK, statement condemned in the “strongest possible tary-General Council members could hold a on the one hand, and Russia, on the other terms the use of such weapons by any party to follow-up informal, unscripted and forward- hand, illustrate the deepening divisions. The the conflict as this is strictly prohibited under international law” and called for the perpetrators looking meeting at the ambassadorial level 17 April briefing requested by Russia to focus of such attacks to be identified and held account- to discuss how to increase pressure on the particularly on the humanitarian situation in able, stressing the need to preserve evidence parties to the conflict and seek a compromise Raqqa and Rukban is another recent example and ensure no party tampers with suspected that is both realistic and acceptable to all. of the political manoeuvring in the Council. sites, objects, witnesses, or victims before inde- Russia has repeatedly called the Council’s pendent monitors and investigators are able to access the area. Council and Wider Dynamics attention to the destruction of Raqqa by the The response to the 13 April airstrikes in the US-led coalition in its efforts to counter the Council underscored the continuing divi- Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. It has Key Issues and Options sions among members on Syria. The views also criticised the US for the difficulties of The current level of P5 divisions raises the expressed by Council members fell into three ensuring access to tens of thousands of civil- question whether the Council will be able to distinct categories. Some members (Bolivia, ians stranded in the Rukban camp, given its work constructively on Syria. If the current China, and Russia, among others) criticised proximity to the US military base of Al-Tanf. paralysis continues, those with even limited the airstrikes as a violation of the sovereign- In Backårka, Council members agreed capacity to act, whether elected members, ty of a member state, referring to them as a on press elements on all three tracks that the Secretary-General or key members of the violation of the UN Charter. Other Council may become a basis for a more constructive General Assembly, may be inclined to take members justified the airstrikes (Poland, and engagement. the initiative. The Secretary-General could of course the P3), with at least one mem- Kuwait and Sweden are the penholders on provide options for the consideration of the ber characterising them as understandable humanitarian issues in Syria.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments parties seeking to consolidate power among In May, the Council will hold its biannual General elections in BiH are expected to their respective voting bases ahead of the debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The take place in October, with the announce- elections. Crucial issues related to elec- High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, ment of elections anticipated in May. Ahead tion laws and the criminal procedure code will brief, presenting the latest report of the of the electoral season, ethnic and politi- remain unresolved. Office of the High Representative (OHR). cal divisions among Bosniaks, Croats and Regarding the election law, the Constitu- The current authorisation for the EU-led Serbs continue to remain a major challenge tional Court ruled in December 2016 that multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR for the country. Divisive and destabilising several provisions for electing members to the ALTHEA) expires on 7 November. rhetoric by prominent political figures on Federation House of Peoples were unconsti- all sides has continued, with many political tutional, and after the court’s six-month

UN DOCUMENTS ON BIH Security Council Resolution S/RES/2384 (7 November 2017) renewed the authorisation of EUFOR ALTHEA for an additional year. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8089 (7 November 2017) was the semi-annual debate on BiH with a briefing by the High Representative. Security Council Letter S/2017/922 (1 November 2017) was the 52nd report of the High Representative for Implementation of the Peace Agreement on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Bosnia and Herzegovina deadline for the BiH Parliamentary Assembly time, no such action had been taken. meaningful progress towards implementing to amend the law passed, the court removed About the upcoming elections, the EU commitments on economic and governance the unconstitutional provisions in July 2017. Commission’s Interim Report on BiH, reforms and the criteria for closing the OHR, To date, these provisions have yet to be published on 17 April, said: “The elec- known as the “5+2” agenda. replaced. Without them, the election of del- toral framework remains to be urgently egates to the Federation House of Peoples, amended with a view to ensuring the prop- Council Dynamics which will follow the general elections in er organisation of the October 2018 elec- Council members largely share concerns October, will be problematic. If the Federa- tions and the smooth implementation of over BiH’s divisive ethnic politics and the tion House of Peoples cannot be constituted, the results. In this regard all political lead- need for parties to take the necessary steps the election of the new federation president ers need to assume their responsibility and to amend the election laws ahead of holding and vice presidents, who are responsible for to find a solution with regard to the Fed- general elections in October. Most mem- nominating the new federation government, eration House of Peoples”. It also said that bers are also critical of the rhetoric of RS cannot take place, and neither can the elec- “adoption of legislation stemming from the leaders, which they view as challenging tion of Bosniak and Croat delegates to the Reform Agenda…was negatively affected BiH’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. BiH House of Peoples, one of the two houses by tensions between ruling coalition par- Russia, however, tends to be more support- of the state-level parliament. ties and obstruction by opposition parties in ive of the positions of the RS and is critical In the context of this impasse, the EU Parliaments at state and entity levels, lead- of the High Representative, believing that and the US have been facilitating talks ing to a slowdown of the reform pace”. his reporting is not objective and that he between the political parties to seek a reso- On 7 November 2017, the Council held should focus more on encouraging intra- lution of this issue ahead of elections. In the its semi-annual debate on BiH and unani- Bosnian dialogue and trust. city of Mostar, political parties have still not mously adopted resolution 2384, renewing During the debate on 7 November 2017, implemented a Constitutional Court deci- the authorisation of EUFOR ALTHEA for all 15 Council members made statements. sion regarding the city’s election law and an additional year. During his Council brief- Several members, including current mem- have been unable to agree to the necessary ing, Inzko stressed that “the parties must do bers Ethiopia, France, Kazakhstan, Sweden amendments. As a result, local elections whatever is necessary to ensure that the elec- and the UK, stressed the need for dialogue have not been held in the city since 2008. tions can take place…and that the results are around electoral reform issues ahead of Regarding the criminal procedure code, implemented without undue delays”. holding elections and for actors to abandon the Constitutional Court declared several divisive rhetoric. Russia, in its statement, provisions of the criminal procedure code Key Issues and Options criticised the work and the report of the regulating special investigative measures Political gridlock, lack of respect for the High Representative, proposed “consider- unconstitutional in June 2017. To date, the rule of law, and ethnic divisions remain key ing the practical aspects of shutting down” six-month deadline to replace these provi- issues. With general elections anticipated the OHR and did not mention the election. sions has passed without any action by the this year, lack of progress on amending elec- Negotiations on resolution 2384 to BiH Parliament. The consequence of this tion laws regarding the Federation House reauthorise EUFOR ALTHEA, adopted inaction could leave the judiciary unable of Peoples and the city of Mostar are likely on 7 November 2017, proved less chal- to rule on organised crime and corruption to be of concern. Slow progress in advanc- lenging compared to previous years. While cases and seriously impact the rule of law. ing socio-economic reforms linked to BiH’s all members support maintaining EUFOR Republika Srpska (RS) President Milo- EU integration and fulfilling the criteria and ALTHEA, difficulties have emerged in the rad Dodik has continued to call for the RS’s objectives for closing the OHR are recur- past with Russia over efforts to include a independence from BiH and to advocate for ring issues. description of the High Representative’s its eventual secession. In November 2017, The Council is most likely to hold the powers and reference to “Euro-Atlantic” the RS National Assembly repealed its 2015 debate without taking further action. It could, integration—language that was ultimately decision to hold a referendum on the juris- however, issue a statement encouraging BiH not incorporated in previous resolutions. diction of BiH state courts and the High leaders to overcome narrow political inter- Attempts to include such language were Representative’s authority in RS territory. ests and ethnic divisions and calling for prog- not repeated in November 2017, making However, it adopted conclusions to revisit ress on the reforms necessary ahead of the the negotiations more straightforward. the referendum issue in the future. At press elections. The statement could also call for

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 7 South Sudan

situation in the country will continue to deteriorate, Expected Council Action at press time scheduled to be held from 17-21 with enormous humanitarian and regional security In May, the Council will be briefed on the UN May, after being postponed from 2-6 May. The implications”. It reiterated previous recommenda- Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), followed third phase is expected to involve the continu- tions for the Council to impose additional targeted by consultations. The Council is also expected ation of discussions around governance and sanctions and an arms embargo. to adopt a resolution renewing the 2206 South security arrangements that were begun at the The committee also received a briefing by the Office of the Special Representative of the Sudan sanctions regime and the mandate of second phase of the forum, which took place Secretary-General for Children and Armed Con- the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee’s from 5 to 16 February. At the conclusion of flict, which said that violations against children had Panel of Experts, both of which expire on 31 the second phase, the parties had divergent increased considerably compared to the preceding May. Council members expect to receive the views on the sharing of responsibilities in the two years; that the recruitment and use of children, monthly report from the Secretary-General on Transitional Government of National Unity, by all parties to the conflict, was endemic; and that children in South Sudan were being abused in a violations of the Status of Forces Agreement particularly in the executive, legislature and systematic and sustained manner that enabled the or obstructions to UNMISS, as requested in judiciary and on transitional security arrange- conflict to continue. resolution 2406. ments and the unification of forces. The first The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 phase of the forum took place from 18 to 22 March 2019. December 2017 and resulted in the signing of Key Issues and Options the 21 December 2017 Cessation of Hostili- An immediate issue for the Council is how to Key Recent Developments ties Agreement (CoHA). However, fighting has support IGAD’s efforts to revitalise the politi- The situation in South Sudan remains a cause continued in South Sudan since the signing of cal process and what consequences it should for grave concern. The country is on the brink the CoHA, although at lower levels than at this impose on those who undermine that process. of famine as more than seven million people time (during the dry season) in previous years. In an effort to reduce the level of violence and (almost two-thirds of the population) could IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan exert leverage on the parties, Council members become severely food-insecure in the coming Ismail Wais and representatives of the IGAD could seek to impose an arms embargo and months. More than four million people are Council of Ministers have been undertaking further targeted sanctions. still displaced, half of whom are refugees in shuttle-diplomacy efforts to hold consultations Another issue is whether to receive strength- neighbouring countries. Human rights viola- with relevant parties and civil society leading ened and more regular updates on the human tions and abuses, including incidents of sex- up to the reconvening of the HLRF. On 12 rights situation in South Sudan. An option in ual violence, continue at alarming levels with April, AU Commission Chairperson Moussa this context would be to invite the High Com- impunity. According to the Secretary-General’s Faki Mahamat met with former First Vice- missioner for Human Rights to provide an annual report on conflict-related sexual vio- President and opposition leader Riek Machar update on the human rights situation. lence, “the proliferation of militias with ready in South Africa. Machar reportedly expressed access to arms increased the rate of sexual vio- the commitment of the SPLM-IO to partici- Council Dynamics lence, including as a driver of displacement”. pate in the HLRF. While the Council has not received a briefing UNMISS documented 196 cases of conflict- A delegation of members of the AU Peace on South Sudan since 27 February, Council related sexual violence in 2017, a decrease in and Security Council conducted a mission to members are following the political process reported incidents from 577 verified incidents South Sudan from 14 to 19 April to interact and are unified in supporting IGAD’s efforts in 2016 that was ascribed to severely restricted with stakeholders to assess the challenges in to revitalise the peace process. However, dif- access to conflict zones, the report said. implementing the peace process and to express ferences still exist over potential action the According to OCHA, seven aid workers support for the ongoing efforts by IGAD and Council could take to impose consequences from a South Sudanese humanitarian organ- the HLRF. on those who undermine the peace process, in isation were released on 15 April after being The Council was last briefed on South particular an arms embargo or further targeted detained for 20 days by forces from the Sudan Sudan on 27 February by Wais and Assistant sanctions, given the long-standing divide in the People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- Council on this issue. The resolution extending (SPLM-IO) in Central Equatoria. The incident tions Bintou Keita. UNMISS’s mandate for one year, unanimously followed the killing of an aid worker in Ben- adopted on 15 March, expresses the Council’s tiu, Unity state, in early April. At least 98 aid Sanctions Committee-Related intention to “consider all measures, including workers have been killed since the start of the Developments an arms embargo, as appropriate, to deprive conflict in December 2013. On 11 April, the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Com- the parties of the means to continue fighting mittee was briefed on the final report of the Panel of The third phase of the South Sudan High- Experts (S/2018/292). The report concluded that and to prevent violations” of the CoHA. Fur- Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF), convened “given the lack of political will to implement ongo- ther Council consideration of these measures by the Intergovernmental Authority on Devel- ing peace efforts, and absent robust pressure from will likely be influenced by assessments of the opment (IGAD) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, was the region and the international community, the extent of violations of the CoHA and the level

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2406 (15 March 2018) extended UNMISS’s mandate for one year. S/RES/2353 (24 May 2017) extended the 2206 South Sudan sanctions regime and the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 31 May 2018. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2017/25 (14 December 2017) was on the situation in South Sudan, focusing on IGAD’s efforts to revitalise the peace process. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2018/250 (23 March 2018) was the Secretary-General’s report on conflict-related sexual violence.S/2018/163 (28 February 2018) was the 90-day report on South Sudan.Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8192 (27 February 2018) was a briefing on South Sudan.Sanctions Committee Documents SC/13306 (18 April 2018) was a press release on the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee briefing on the final report of the Panel of Experts. S/2018/292 (12 April 2018) was the final report of the Panel of Experts.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 South Sudan of commitment and progress made by the par- embargo is sufficient in the present context will Poland chairs the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions ties at the next round of the HLRF. Assess- also be taken into consideration. Committee. ments as to whether the threat of an arms The US is the penholder on South Sudan.

Sudan/South Sudan

Expected Council Action of various benchmarks set out in the resolu- open chamber as was the case at the preceding In May, the Council is expected to renew the tion. Negotiations on the matter took longer briefing on the issue on 26 October 2017. mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for than expected and on 13 April, the Council Abyei (UNISFA) prior to its 15 May expiration. adopted resolution 2411, allowing for a ten- Key Issues and Options day technical rollover of UNISFA’s support to The key issue for the Council is to consider Key Recent Developments the JBVMM. UNISFA’s current mandate and strategic pri- The security situation in Abyei, the disputed On 23 April, the Council unanimously orities as they relate to realities on the ground, territory along the Sudan/South Sudan border, adopted resolution 2412 which extends the including progress made by the parties on remains relatively stable but unpredictable in mission’s support for the JBVMM until 15 border demarcation, and what modifications the absence of progress on establishing tempo- October, and maintains the authorised troop to make to the mandate and force structure, rary arrangements for the administration and ceiling of 4,791 until 15 October, after which if any. An option is for such assessments to be security of Abyei pending resolution of its final the troop ceiling will decrease to 4,250, unless informed by the findings and recommenda- status. Reports of the presence of unidentified the Council decides to extend the mission’s tions of the independent review of the mission. armed groups, intercommunal violence, crimi- support to the JBVMM. The resolution also Another issue is whether the Council should nality and acts of violence near the Amiet com- determines that both parties should demon- take steps to revive the stalled political process mon market continue. Humanitarian needs strate measurable progress on border demar- to avoid having to extend the mission indefi- remain significant as a result of intercommu- cation and imposes six specific measures in nitely. In considering these issues, Council nal tensions and a lack of basic public services. this regard. It also requests the Secretary- members will need to reflect on how the Coun- According to the Secretary-General’s most General to continue to inform the Council cil can best support the AU and Haysom in recent report, the presence and activities of of progress in implementing UNISFA’s man- advancing the dialogue between Sudan and UNISFA, which include facilitating access to date, including reporting on any steps taken South Sudan on the status of Abyei. and delivery of humanitarian aid, has contrib- in accordance with resolution 2412 and reso- An option is for the Council to hold brief- uted to the relative stability and security of lution 2386, no later than 15 September. (For ings on UNISFA and Sudan/South Sudan Abyei. The report also concludes that both gov- more details, see our What’s In Blue story of issues in the Council’s open chamber, as was ernments have made notable progress towards 22 April.) done on 26 October 2017, instead of in consul- operationalisation of the Joint Border Verifica- UNISFA is one of the eight peacekeeping tations. That would be a way to increase inter- tion and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), operations that are to be subject to a compre- national attention on the status of Abyei and established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and hensive independent review initiated by the add pressure on Sudan and South Sudan to verification activities along the Sudan-South Secretary-General. The review team visited advance the political process. Sudan border. The report says, “more prog- Abyei and the wider region from 5 to 19 March ress has been made during the previous five to assess the mission’s mandate, including con- Council Dynamics months…than in the previous five years”. It ditions for its successful implementation and Negotiations in April on whether to extend recommends extending UNISFA’s support whether there is an achievable political solution UNISFA’s support to the JBVMM followed to the JBVMM for a further six months with and a viable exit strategy. The Seceratry-Gener- similar divides between the US and Ethiopia any future support being contingent upon the al’s summary of the review team’s findings will (UNISFA’s primary troop-contributing coun- two countries’ ability and willingness to imple- likely inform the Council’s discussions on the try) as during negotiations in May and Novem- ment the outcomes of their border manage- renewal of UNISFA’s mandate in May. ber of last year on the renewal of the mission’s ment discussions. Council members were last briefed on mandate and its troop ceiling. Ethiopia initially According to resolution 2386, which UNISFA on 24 April by Under-Secretary- circulated a draft resolution that proposed a extended UNISFA’s mandate until 15 May, General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean- one-month technical rollover of UNISFA’s UNISFA’s support for the JBVMM would Pierre Lacroix and Special Envoy for Sudan support to the JBVMM until 15 May and wel- cease on 15 April, unless the Council decided and South Sudan Nicholas Haysom. The brief- comed “significant progress made in the imple- to extend such support based on the fulfilment ing took place in consultations and not in the mentation of the JBVMM”. This proposal was

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2412 (23 April 2018) extended UNISFA’s support to the JBVMM until 15 October 2018 and imposed additional benchmarks. S/RES/2411 (13 April 2018) was a technical rollover of the mission’s support for the JBVMM until 23 April 2018. S/RES/2386 (15 November 2017) extended the mission’s mandate for six months. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/293 (3 April 2018) was on Abyei. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8078 (26 October 2017) was an open briefing on Sudan/South Sudan.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Sudan/South Sudan unacceptable to the US, which put its own ver- for example reducing the required number of issues. On the other hand, Ethiopia, supported sion in blue calling for a 10-day technical roll- additional corridors (from among the 10 iden- by a number of other Council members, has over to allow for further negotiations. tified crossings in the Safe Demilitarized Bor- been of the view that suspending the mission’s During negotiations on resolution 2412, der Zone) to be opened from three to two and support of the JBVMM and reducing the troop a major issue related to the US’s proposal to reducing the necessary number of meetings to ceiling would undermine the effectiveness of reduce UNISFA’s troop ceiling from 4,791 be held by the Joint Border Commission and the mission and that the parties have taken suf- to 4,500. Ethiopia opposed this reduction Joint Demarcation Committee. ficient steps towards establishing the JBVMM arguing that the JBVMM, at initial operating These dynamics reflect, on the one hand, to merit retaining support. This difference in capability requires 557 troops, all of whom are the longstanding concern of the US that UNIS- perspective is likely to be reflected again in dis- already deployed and on the ground. Resolu- FA is persisting longer than intended for an cussions around UNISFA’s mandate renewal tion 2412 reflects this position and maintains interim force and that Sudan and South Sudan in May. the current authorised troop ceiling. Compro- are taking advantage of the relative stability that The US is the penholder on Abyei. mises were also reached by softening several of UNISFA provides to delay attempts to resolve the benchmarks that the parties need to meet, the status of Abyei and related border-security

Libya

Expected Council Action of being passed” as Libya gets closer to elec- Libyan National Army (LNA) and those nomi- In May, the Council is expected to receive tions. In consultations, he emphasised the lack nally affiliated with the Presidency Council of briefings by the Special Representative and of political will to engage on outstanding politi- the Government of National Accord. In mid- head of the UN Support Mission in Libya cal issues among key decision-makers in Lib- April, Khalifa Haftar, who leads the LNA, had (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, and the chair of ya. In press elements agreed to at the meeting, to be urgently hospitalised in Paris. At press the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambas- Council members underlined that the status time, his condition was unclear. sador Olof Skoog (Sweden), followed by con- quo was unsustainable and urged Libyan lead- In order to address the multiplicity of sultations. Also this month, ICC Prosecutor ers to “engage constructively in the dialogue armed actors in Libya, UNSMIL has started Fatou Bensouda will deliver her semi-annual process in a spirit of compromise”. a broad dialogue to explore the conditions and briefing on recent developments concerning Despite the emphasis of Libyan stakehold- means for their reintegration into civilian life cases in Libya. ers on the importance of holding elections, or into state military and security institutions. UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 Septem- Salamé has repeatedly warned that before Salamé is expected to present this strategy to ber, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts credible elections can be conducted, much the Council in May. assisting the sanctions committee expires on work remains to be done. Of particular impor- The situation of migrants and refugees in 15 November. tance is legislation to regulate the holding of Libya continues to be critical as they continue elections and a constitutional referendum. In to be arbitrarily detained in appalling condi- Key Recent Developments addition to that, the commitment by the par- tions. According to UNHCR, in 2018, 7,540 Deep divisions remain between the parties in ties to accept the results is vital for their success. persons have arrived to Italy by sea, and 1,342 Libya. Despite the signing of the Libyan Politi- Salamé has mentioned the need is to bring refugees and asylum seekers have been evacu- cal Agreement (LPA) on 17 December 2015, Libyans together around a common national ated to emergency transit locations from where little progress has been achieved in establish- narrative. In April, public consultations took their applications for refugee status are being ing unified and legitimate institutions with the place in Benghazi, Gharyan and Zuwara, the processed by UNHCR. On 19 March, Italy capacity to deliver basic services. first of some thirty Libyan cities. This is part impounded an NGO-operated migrant-rescue Salamé has been focusing on implementing of a consultative process leading up to the boat and detained its crew on human traffick- a UN action plan that the Council endorsed in holding of a national conference to be held ing charges. While the ship was released on October 2017. This plan involves working in this summer. Furthermore, reconciliation 16 April, two crew members continue to face parallel to amend the LPA, organise a national talks have taken place among municipal offi- criminal charges. conference, finalise a new constitution, and cials of rival towns, such as Zintan and Mis- prepare for parliamentary and presidential rata, and Zintan and Zawiya. ICC-Related Developments elections. Briefing the Council on 21 March, The situation in the south continues to be Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, whose extradition has Salamé shared his assessment that agreement precarious as inter-tribal tensions reinforce been sought by the ICC, has been at large on amendments to the LPA “have little chance existing rivalries among supporters of the since he was set free by the Abu-Bakr al-Siddiq

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2380 (5 October 2017) renewed the authorisation for member states to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking. S/RES/2376 (14 September 2017) extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 15 September 2018. S/RES/2362 (29 June 2017) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee and the measures regarding attempts to illicitly export oil from Libya. S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/140 (12 February 2018) was on Libya. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8211 (21 March 2018) was a briefing by Salamé. S/PV.8091 (8 November 2017) was a briefing by Bensouda on Libya.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Libya

Brigade, a Zintan-based militia, in June 2017. to consider a report on the human rights situation countries to engage with key stakeholders to In late March, a spokesperson declared that in Libya, with particular focus on the protection of ensure progress in the implementation of the he was planning to run in the upcoming civilians, administration of justice, rule of law and UN action plan. transitional justice (A/HRC/37/46). The report con- presidential elections. Former internal secu- cluded that armed groups, including those acting Council members could organise an infor- rity chief Mohamed Khaled al-Tuhamy, alleg- on behalf of the state, “continued to be primar- mal interactive dialogue with Bensouda to edly responsible for war crimes and crimes ily responsible for grave human rights violations focus on options for following up ICC deci- against humanity committed in 2011 in Libya, and abuses in Libya”, and that “state institutions sions on Libya (as the ICC is not a UN entity, remains at large as well. While the case against remained weak and often were unable or, in some the prosecutor is not allowed in Council con- cases, unwilling to ensure accountability for human former Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah al- rights violations or abuses or to end impunity”. sultations under current practice). Senussi was found to be inadmissible before On 23 March, the HRC adopted without a vote the Court in 2013, in light of domestic pro- resolution 37/41, which requests the High Com- Council and Wider Dynamics ceedings against him, Bensouda had expressed missioner to continue monitoring and reporting on Overall, Council members are united in their in the past her intention to review her office’s human rights violations and abuses across Libya support of Salamé’s mediation efforts. How- and to provide technical assistance and capacity- assessment of the al-Senussi case as new infor- building to promote and protect human rights and ever, despite recent unanimous Council out- mation becomes available. prevent and ensure accountability for violations comes—including the Council’s endorsement On 15 August 2017, Pre-Trial Chamber I and abuses. The resolution also requests the High of the UN action plan and a presidential state- issued an arrest warrant for Mahmoud Mus- Commissioner to present an oral update on the ment ahead of the 17 December 2017 anni- tafa Busayf Al-Werfalli, a commander partici- situation of human rights in Libya and the imple- versary of the LPA—Council members have mentation of the resolution at its 39th session in pating in General Khalifa Haftar’s Operation often had different sensitivities regarding the September and a report on the situation of human Dignity in Benghazi. According to the warrant, rights in Libya at its 40th session in March 2019, way forward to achieve a solution. Al-Werfalli appears to be directly responsible including on the implementation of technical assis- The semi-annual briefings by Bensouda for the death of 33 persons in Benghazi or sur- tance and capacity-building. on Libya have had limited impact, given divi- rounding areas between June 2016 and July sions among Council members on whether to 2017, either by personally killing them or by Key Issues and Options take action to support the implementation of ordering their execution. To date, Al-Werfalli The key issue for the Council is how it can ICC decisions. Council members have often has not been surrendered to the ICC in spite of contribute to compelling the parties to adhere reverted to general exhortations rather than reports that he turned himself in to the military to the UN Action Plan. Generally, the Coun- addressing non-compliance in a more forceful police in eastern Libya after additional, extraju- cil could discuss and devise ways in which and effective way. dicial executions became public in early 2018. Council members could support, collectively The UK is the penholder on Libya, and and bilaterally, the UN-led mediation efforts Sweden chairs the 1970 Libya Sanctions Human Rights-Related Developments in Libya. At the appropriate time, and in sup- Committee. On 21 March, during its 37th session, the Human port of Salamé’s work, they might consider a Rights Council (HRC) held an interactive dialogue visiting mission to Libya and neighbouring

Peacekeeping

Expected Council Action Lacroix is also expected to address the Council. Peacekeeping Operations”, held at the initiative In May, the Council will be briefed on aspects No outcome is anticipated. of the Netherlands. of UN peacekeeping by three heads of mili- tary components of UN peace operations: Background Adapting to Changing Security and Operational Lieutenant General Leonard Ngondi, Force The force commander briefings, which have Environments Commander of the AU/UN Hybrid Opera- been held annually since 2010, focus on the In 2017, 61 peacekeepers were killed as a result tion in Darfur (UNAMID); Major General operational challenges of implementing mis- of hostile acts, the highest number since 1994. Jean-Paul Deconinck, Force Commander of sion mandates. On this occasion, the meeting As a reaction to this worrying phenomenon, the the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabiliza- is expected to focus on two particular issues: Secretariat assigned a team led by Lieutenant tion Mission in Mali (MINUSMA); and Lieu- the need to adapt to changing security and General (ret.) Carlos dos Santos Cruz of Brazil tenant General Frank Mushyo Kamanzi, Force operational environments and the implemen- to write a report on improving the security of Commander of the UN Mission in South tation of Council mandates. These two issues UN peacekeepers. The report concluded that Sudan (UNMISS). Under-Secretary-Gen- were recently highlighted at the 28 March open a change of mindset is needed to adapt to the eral for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre debate on “Collective Action to Improve UN new contexts in which the UN flag no longer

UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACEKEEPING Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8218 (28 March 2018) was an open debate on peacekeeping, organised by the Netherlands. S/PV.7947 (23 May 2017) was the annual briefing by force commanders.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Peacekeeping

offers “natural” protection and to break from mandate inflation and the impossibility of new methodology to carry out strategic reviews, a “Chapter VI Syndrome” that leads peace- implementing many mandated tasks, call- including an independent element, the Coun- keepers to deploy without a full appreciation ing on the Council to sharpen and stream- cil could discuss the way in which it expects to of security risks and the operational approach line mandates. This is in line with previous consider the conclusions of such reviews. needed to address them. The report argues that reports (including the Brahimi report in 2000 a more proactive posture will contribute to the and the report of the High-Level Independent Council Dynamics effectiveness of peacekeeping operations and Panel on Peace Operations) that advocated In past years, Council members have found the their ability to protect civilians and their own for the prioritisation and sequencing of Coun- force commander briefings useful because of personnel. Building on the report, the Secre- cil mandates to make peace operations more the substance of the discussions and the inter- tariat has developed a plan of action that iden- effective. Among the issues that may be raised active format, which allows them to ask ques- tifies concrete ways to improve the safety and as needed to achieve this goal are appropriate tions. The success of these sessions prompted security of UN personnel. resources, realistic expectations, prioritising then-Council member Australia to organise a Force commanders are expected to raise tasks, aligning resources and mandates more briefing with the heads of police components of what they perceive as the most pressing issues closely, and having coordinated and coherent peacekeeping operations during its November needed to fulfil their mandates in situations political strategies. 2014 presidency. Since then, a meeting with with a challenging security environment. They the heads of police components has also been may be interested in weighing in during the Key Issues and Options held annually. discussion regarding the appropriate level of As the Secretariat engages in efforts to reform This year’s meeting comes at a time of “robustness” for UN operations, when cir- peacekeeping, Council members could draw considerable discussion about peacekeeping cumstances call for a more proactive posture lessons on how it agrees on strategic objectives reform. During the 28 March open debate, and when they do not, and how force posture for these missions, designs mandates, and mon- Guterres announced a new initiative, “Action has an impact on the broader mandate of the itors the capacity to achieve them. This could for Peacekeeping”, aimed at mobilising all mission. also include a more concerted effort to receive stakeholders to create peacekeeping opera- military advice and operational information tions fit for the future. At press time, Council The Implementation of Council Mandates from force commanders by having them brief members are negotiating a draft presidential During the 28 March open debate, Secre- the Council alongside heads of missions on a statement circulated by the Netherlands as a tary-General António Guterres warned about case-by-case basis. As the Secretariat rolls out a follow-up to the open debate.

Sudan (Darfur)

Expected Council Action in Sudan remained prevalent, with conflict- Force covers the remaining areas. Construction In May, the Security Council will be briefed related sexual violence occurring primar- of a temporary operating base in Golo is under- on the 60-day report of the Secretary-Gener- ily around displaced persons camps. In 2017, way, following a delay in the government’s con- al on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Dar- UNAMID documented 152 cases of conflict- sent to transfer the land, which was granted on fur (UNAMID). The mandate of UNAMID related sexual violence, a decrease from 222 28 January. expires on 30 June. victims in 2016. On 18 April, Under-Secretary-General for UNAMID continues phase two of its Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix Key Recent Developments reconfiguration, which started on 31 January and AU Commissioner for Peace and Secu- The security situation in Darfur has improved, in accordance with resolution 2363 and the rity Smail Chergui (via video teleconference) but the causes of the conflict and their relat- presidential statement adopted on 31 Janu- briefed Council members in an informal inter- ed consequences are still largely unaddressed. ary. Phase two includes further reductions of active dialogue on their joint visit to Sudan Human rights violations and abuses, such as UNAMID’s authorised troop and police ceil- and the Central African Republic from 7 to 13 sexual and gender-based violence and viola- ings from 11,395 to 8,735 military personnel April. According to a note to correspondents, tions against children, continue to be perpe- and from 2,888 to 2,500 police personnel; it is the visit was “aimed at further strengthening trated with impunity. According to the Secre- scheduled to be completed on 30 June. In line the important partnership between the UN tary-General’s report on conflict-related sexual with this, the mission is currently redeploying and the AU”. While in Sudan, Lacroix and violence, while the rate of new displacements military and police personnel and civilian staff Chergui met with Sudanese Foreign Minis- was lower in 2017 than in previous years and to strengthen Jebel Marra Task Force opera- ter Ibrahim Ghandour and with community humanitarian access improved, sexual violence tions while the State Stabilization Assistance leaders at a camp for displaced persons near

UN DOCUMENTS ON DARFUR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2400 (8 February 2018) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts on Sudan for one year. S/RES/2363 (29 June 2017) renewed UNAMID’s mandate for one year. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2018/4 (31 January 2018) was on the situation in Darfur and UNAMID’s recon- figuration.Secretary-General’s Reports S/2018/250 (23 March 2018) was on conflict-related sexual violence.S/2018/154 (22 February 2018) was the 60-day UNAMID report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8202 (14 March 2018) was an UNAMID briefing.Sanctions Committee Document S/2018/223 (14 March) was a letter appointing four of the five members of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Sudan (Darfur)

El Fasher, North Darfur. They also interacted included meetings with various government and UN Another key issue is to support efforts to with officials from the UN, the AU, and the officials and with civil society actors in Khartoum, break the ongoing impasse in the negotia- government regarding the work of UNAMID. Darfur and Golo. tions between the government and Darfuri On 14 March, the Secretary-General appoint- The joint AU-UN strategic review team ed four of the five members of the Panel of rebel movements and implementation of the completed a two-week visit to Sudan on 13 Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Com- Doha Document for Peace in Darfur, adopted April. As set out in the presidential statement mittee; its mandate expires on 12 February 2019. in 2011. One option is to invite Thabo Mbeki, adopted on 31 January, the review will consider According to Wronecka in her 14 March Council chair of the AU High-Level Implementation a new mission concept with adjusted priorities, briefing, the committee had no objections to four Panel, to address the Council on his efforts of the candidates proposed, but the fifth candi- and a written report will be submitted to the date (who would serve as the panel’s regional (Mbeki last briefed the Council in an infor- Security Council by 1 June to inform discus- expert) was placed on hold by three members mal interactive dialogue on 12 January 2017). sions ahead of UNAMID’s mandate expiration of the committee. At press time, the expert was Another option is for the Council to consid- on 30 June. expected to be appointed shortly. er imposing additional targeted sanctions on The Council received a briefing on Darfur those parties who continue to refuse to partici- on 14 March from Joint Special Representa- Human Rights-Related Developments pate in the negotiations. tive for Darfur and head of UNAMID Jeremi- The independent expert on the situation of human rights in Sudan, Aristide Nononsi, visited Sudan ah Mamabolo (via video teleconference) and Council Dynamics from 14 to 24 April, where he met with Sudanese Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), the officials, representatives of civil society, community There continue to be differences amongst chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, leaders, diplomats and members of UN agencies in Council members in assessing the improve- who provided the quarterly briefing to Council Khartoum and Darfur. A focus of the trip was to see ments in the overall situation in Darfur and the members on the committee’s work. Mamabo- what action had been taken to reform the current government’s cooperation during UNAMID’s legal framework, which infringes on the exercise of lo urged the Council to ensure that adequate reconfiguration, which has so far progressed political and civil rights and fundamental freedoms. resources are mobilised and that they are com- Nononsi will present his findings and recommenda- without any major incidents. While some mem- mensurate with the pace of UNAMID’s draw- tions to the Human Rights Council during its 39th bers seem to view more guarded recognition down to facilitate continued stability. Wronec- session in September. of progress as appropriate, other members, ka continued the practice of briefing in an open including Russia and Ethiopia, are generally format, as Ukraine did in its last briefing as Key Issues and Options more positive in their assessment of improve- chair of the committee on 7 December 2017. A key issue that Council members will want ments in the situation in Darfur and steps the Prior to this, the committee’s quarterly brief- to follow closely is the progress in implement- government of Sudan has taken to date. ings to the Council had taken place in consul- ing phase two of UNAMID’s reconfiguration At the 14 March briefing, five Council tations for several years. and the effect of further troop reductions on members made statements. Peru expressed the security and human rights situations. An concern about the human rights situa- Sanctions-Related Developments option in this context would be to invite the tion while Equatorial Guinea, Bolivia and Wronecka travelled to Sudan as chair of the 1591 High Commissioner for Human Rights to pro- Kazakhstan more positively assessed the Sudan Sanctions Committee from 15 to 19 April. vide an update on the human rights situation. situation and emphasised the need to priori- This was the third visit to Sudan by a chair of the committee, following visits by previous chairs in Another issue for the Council to consider is tise peacebuilding efforts. All five members, January 2014 and May 2017. The general objec- UNAMID’s current mandate and strategic pri- which additionally included Côte d’Ivoire, tive was to obtain updated first-hand accounts orities as they relate to realities on the ground, stressed the need to address the root causes of the state of implementation of the measures including progress made in addressing the root of the conflict and called for progress on the imposed by the Security Council. The outcome causes of the conflict, ahead of the mission’s political front, including implementation of of the visit will feed into the Security Council’s review of the sanctions measures on Darfur (reso- mandate renewal in June. An option is for such the Doha Document for Peace. lution 2400 expressed the Council’s intention “to assessments to be informed by the findings and The UK is the penholder on Darfur; Poland regularly review the measures on Darfur…in light recommendations of the review report, which chairs the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee. of the evolving situation on the ground”). The visit members expect to receive by 1 June.

Kosovo

Expected Council Action the UN Interim Administration Mission in occasions, Serbia is likely to participate at a In May, the Council is expected to hold its Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief on high level while Kosovo will probably be rep- quarterly briefing on the situation in Koso- recent developments and the latest report by resented by its ambassador to the US. vo. The Special Representative and head of the Secretary-General. As on several previous

UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO Security Council Resolution S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/76 (31 January 2018) was on UNMIK. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8176 (7 February 2018) was a quarterly briefing on the situation in Kosovo.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Kosovo

Key Recent Developments the creation of the ASM/CSM in northern for downsizing the mission, given the relative Tensions between Belgrade and Pristina Kosovo. stability in Kosovo. An option for the Council escalated on 26 March after the Kosovo On 21 March, Kosovo’s parliament rati- would be to consider specific proposals to this police arrested Marko Đurić, Serbia’s head fied the agreement on border demarcation end including possibly changing the format of office for Kosovo. Đurić was attending an with Montenegro following an affirmative of the meeting to consultations or to request event in the majority-Serb town of North- vote by 80 representatives, which was the the Secretary-General to conduct a strate- ern Mitrovica in northern Kosovo when minimum threshold of a two-thirds majority gic review of the mission to explore ways to Kosovo special police dispersed the crowd of the votes. Self-Determination, the main increase its efficiency. and made the arrest. Kosovo authorities political opposition party, has expressed The Council will continue to follow close- allege they issued an advance warning to strong objections to the agreement, and ly developments related to the KSC. An issue Đurić informing him that he was not grant- its members have sought to prevent a vote for the Council will be the cooperation of the ed permission to enter Kosovo. After the on this issue on several occasions by set- Kosovo government with the KSC, given that arrest, Đurić was transferred to Pristina and ting off smoke bombs in the parliament. In some political actors in Kosovo have publicly later the same day deported back to Serbia. the past, some party members were arrested criticised its work. Should Kosovo hinder its In protest, Srpska List, the major politi- for obstructing the work of the parliament. cooperation with the KSC, the Council could cal party representing Kosovar Serbs, The EU sees the ratification of the agree- consider issuing a statement calling on the announced that it would withdraw its rep- ment as one of the main preconditions for authorities in Kosovo to adhere to its com- resentatives from the government and a rul- allowing Kosovo citizens to travel visa-free mitments to the court. ing coalition led by Kosovo Prime Minister within the EU. Ramush Haradinaj. They also announced At press time, there was still no informa- Council Dynamics that they would unilaterally establish the tion on those responsible for the assassina- Kosovo remains a low-intensity issue for the Association/Community of Serb Munici- tion of Oliver Ivanović, a prominent Serb Council that is followed closely primarily by palities (ASM/CSM) in northern Kosovo if politician from Northern Mitrovica who was members with a particular interest in the the government did not do so by 20 April. killed in January. Initially, the local prosecu- region. Regional organisations, including the A day before the deadline, the leaders of the tor’s office in Mitrovica led the investigation. EU, NATO and the Organization for Secu- Srpska List and Serbian President Aleksan- However, the Kosovo Special Prosecutor’s rity and Co-operation in Europe, now play dar Vučić announced that they would give Office took over the investigation in March, increasingly prominent roles in Kosovo. Kosovo authorities an additional three citing the complexity of the case. In Febru- Deep divisions among permanent mem- months to establish the ASM/CSM. ary, Kosovo police arrested two police officers bers have continued on the Kosovo issue. One day after the incident in Northern from Northern Mitrovica suspected of hav- France, the UK and the US recognise Koso- Mitrovica, EU High Representative for For- ing manipulated the evidence in the case, but vo’s independence and tend to be support- eign Affairs and Security Policy Federica they were later released. ive of Kosovo’s government while China and Mogherini travelled to Belgrade to meet Earlier this year, chief prosecutor of the Russia do not recognise its independence Vučić. In a statement issued after the meet- Kosovo Specialist Chambers (KSC), David and strongly support Serbia’s position. The ing, Mogherini condemned the events in Schwendiman, announced he would step P3 and some other members have become Kosovo and called for restraint while noting down from the post. On 31 March, Kwai increasingly outspoken in advocating a that she and Vučić agreed to find new ways Hong Ip became acting specialist prosecutor lengthening of UNMIK’s reporting cycle to continue resolving peacefully the open until a new specialist prosecutor is appoint- and thus reducing the frequency of meetings questions between Belgrade and Pristina. ed. The KSC is the special court based in on Kosovo. The US has called for a draw- During her tour of the Balkans, Mogherini The Hague that will investigate alleged war down and eventual withdrawal of UNMIK, met Vučić again in Belgrade on 19 April. crimes committed by the Kosovo Liberation citing the stability in Kosovo. The US has also Among other issues, Mogherini emphasised Army during the conflict in Kosovo in the late asserted that the mission remains overstaffed the importance of implementing the exist- 1990s. The KSC operates under Kosovo law and over-resourced considering its limited ing agreement between Belgrade and Pris- and is staffed by international judges. responsibilities and that these resources could tina including the creation of ASM/CSM. be put to better use in more pressing situa- Over the course of the past several Key Issues and Options tions on the Council’s agenda. months, there has been no notable prog- Considering recent tensions between Bel- Given the current emphasis on reviewing ress in the EU-facilitated dialogue on the grade and Pristina, maintaining stability in UN peacekeeping operations with the aim of normalisation of relations between Bel- Kosovo remains the primary concern for the reducing costs and increasing efficiency, the grade and Pristina. Mogherini hosted the Council. Related to this is what role UNMIK issue of modifying UNMIK’s mandate is like- first high-level meeting this year between can play in facilitating the implementation ly to become more prominent. Unlike most Vučić and Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi of the existing agreements between Belgrade other mission mandates the UNMIK man- in Brussels on 23 March. Vučić and Thaçi and Pristina. date is open-ended. Any attempt to change last met in August 2017. Among the core Some Council members, especially the the status quo regarding UNMIK would issues discussed at the meeting was the lack P3, continue to question the usefulness of the require a new resolution, which Russia would of implementation on the agreement about current reporting cycle and have even called strongly oppose and likely block.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Lebanon

Expected Council Action over its whole territory, and in that context, he most immediate concern for the Council is the In May, the Council expects to receive the welcomed the deployment of additional LAF weaponry held by Hezbollah and other non- semi-annual briefing on the latest report on troops in the south. Given the ongoing turmoil state actors and the illicit flow of arms through the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopt- in the region, Guterres stressed that Lebanon Syria to Hezbollah, which directly hinders ed in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the dis- and its neighbours should avoid any actions the ability of the government to exercise full armament of all militias and the extension of that could lead to misunderstanding, con- authority over its territory. government control over all Lebanese territory. frontation or escalation. In his remarks at the The ongoing crisis in Syria, with Hezbol- meeting, Hariri said that Israel constitutes a lah’s involvement in support of the government, Key Recent Developments main threat to his country, and he furthermore has contributed to this flow of arms, which pos- Parliamentary elections in Lebanon, scheduled signalled that the LAF will be deploying more es a threat to Lebanon’s sovereignty and stabil- for 6 May, will represent a significant milestone troops to the south. ity and contravenes disarmament provisions of for the country, given that elections were last Some of the more significant contributions resolutions 1559 and 1701, the latter of which held in 2009. Since then, the parliament has at the meeting came from the EU and the UK, called for a cessation of hostilities between extended its mandate and postponed elections which pledged around $61 million and $13 Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. The situation on several occasions, citing security concerns. million, respectively. France announced that it generates concerns about tensions along the Lebanese citizens living abroad were allowed to would open a credit line amounting to 400 mil- Israel-Lebanon border, with the continuing cast absentee ballots for the first time at the end lion euros for the needs of the LAF. The Coun- threat of a resumption of hostilities between of April. The current government, which is led cil commended the convening of the Rome Hezbollah and Israel. by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and President conference in a press statement on 27 March. Should hostilities between Hezbollah and Michel Aoun, was formed in December 2016. On 22 March, UN Interim Force in Leba- Israel flare up, the Council could work to Lebanon continues to face immense socio- non (UNIFIL) head of mission and force com- defuse tensions by issuing some form of out- economic challenges in great part due to the mander Major General Michael Beary presid- come that calls for restraint by the parties. ongoing crisis in Syria. Since the start of hos- ed over a tripartite meeting with senior officials Members could also request a briefing by the tilities in Syria in 2011, Lebanon’s econom- from the LAF and the Israel Defense Forces. Department of Peacekeeping Operations that ic growth rates have dropped from around 9 The meeting focused on UNIFIL’s liaison and focuses on the impact that a more proactive percent to below 2 percent annually. Lebanon coordination activities in light of the ongoing approach by the mission to implementing its currently hosts around one million registered construction in the areas south of the Blue Line, mandate would have on the security situation. refugees from Syria. a border demarcation between Israel and Leba- On the political front, the Council will fol- On 6 April, an international donor confer- non. Beary noted that both sides have been tak- low closely the upcoming general elections ence focused on infrastructure investments ing full advantage of the mission’s liaison and in Lebanon, given their implications for the and economic development in Lebanon coordination mechanisms. He also stressed the security situation in the country and the wider was held in Paris. At the conference, vari- importance of the predictability of any activity region. It could consider delivering key politi- ous donors pledged around $11 billion, pri- along the Blue Line to avoid misunderstand- cal messages regarding the electoral process marily in the form of loans and a small part ings that could escalate into incidents. through a presidential statement that encour- through direct donations. On 25 April, the When the Council renewed UNIFIL’s man- ages progress or expresses concern with chal- Second Brussels Conference on “Supporting date in August of last year, it called for, among lenges, depending on the circumstances. the Future of Syria and the Region” was held. other things, an accelerated deployment of Lebanon’s burden in hosting close to one Various donors pledged $4.4 billion for 2018, the LAF into UNIFIL’s area of operations. In million refugees from Syria is also of deep as well as made multi-year pledges of $3.4 September 2017, the LAF deployed additional concern, and in that regard, the Council could billion for 2019-2020. Another $21.2 billion troops to the southern border to preserve order request a briefing by OCHA on how member in loans was pledged, of which elements are and security in close coordination with UNI- states can enhance services to refugees. on concessional terms. FIL. Since then, coordinated activities by the On 15 March, Secretary-General António LAF and UNIFIL have significantly increased. Council Dynamics Guterres attended the Rome ministerial meet- According to UNIFIL’s records, the joint The Council has been united in supporting ing in support of the Lebanese Armed Forc- activities between the mission and the LAF Lebanon’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and es (LAF) and the country’s Internal Security increased by 34 percent from August 2017 to security, as well as the country’s efforts to insu- Forces under the aegis of the International March. In the same time period, there was also late itself from the damaging effects of the Syr- Support Group for Lebanon and chaired by a 60 percent increase in UNIFIL’s foot patrols. ian conflict. The Council is also unified in its the UN and Italy. Guterres emphasised the recognition of the crucial role the LAF play in importance of strengthening Lebanon’s insti- Key Issues and Options responding to security challenges. tutions and extending the state’s authority Among a number of issues facing Lebanon, the However, there are differences of view over

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2373 (30 August 2017) renewed UNIFIL’s mandate for another year. S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory and free and fair presidential elections. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2016/10 (22 July 2016) stressed the importance of Lebanon’s electing a president by May 2017 in order to maintain stability. Security Council Press Statements SC/13267 (27 March 2018) commended the convening of the 15 March Rome ministerial meeting in support of the LAF and Internal Security Forces and welcomed the joint statement issued at the end of the meeting. SC/13130 (19 December 2017) welcomed Hariri’s return to Lebanon and his decision to continue his term.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Lebanon security dynamics in the region and the force renewal, during which the US expressed some members—including France, which is the pen- posture of UNIFIL. Over the past year, the US criticism of the mission due to differing views holder—seem to be wary of the prospect of a has been interested in directing the Council’s of the threat posed by Hezbollah. The US has more proactive approach by the mission, tend- attention to the threats posed by Hezbollah and been advocating for a more proactive role for ing to believe that this could threaten the fragile Iran in the region. This dynamic was evident the mission in confronting the threat of Hez- calm in southern Lebanon that has been main- during the latest negotiations on UNIFIL’s bollah. On the other hand, most other Council tained for the past ten years.

Somalia

Expected Council Action that, two years ago, the UAE signed an agree- million cache of money at Mogadishu airport In May, the Council is expected to renew its ment with Somaliland regional authorities to that had arrived from Abu Dhabi, further authorisation of the AU Mission in Soma- establish a military base in Berbera without raising tensions with the UAE. The cash was lia (AMISOM), which expires on 31 May. the consent of the federal government. He placed in Somalia’s central bank pending an The Council will also receive a briefing said the Monitoring Group on Somalia and investigation. The UAE asserted the money on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia Eritrea maintains that the establishment of was to pay the salaries of Somali soldiers and (UNSOM), which will be followed by con- a foreign military base in Berbera, involving trainees. On 16 April, the UAE announced sultations. The mandate of UNSOM expires the transfer of military materiel to the ter- it was ending its military training mission in on 27 March 2019. ritory, would constitute a violation of the Somalia. arms embargo on Somalia and asserted that Regarding AMISOM, on 2 March, a sum- Key Recent Developments these actions are in clear violation of interna- mit for troop-contributing countries (TCCs) On 27 March, the Council adopted resolu- tional law, the UN Charter, and the norms to the mission was held in Kampala. In a tion 2408, which renewed UNSOM with no of international relations and international communiqué, the TCCs urged the Secu- major changes to its mandate. The resolution cooperation. Therefore, he said, the federal rity Council to reconsider the draw-down underscored the importance of the mission’s government called for the Council to take of AMISOM, restore the mission to previ- support to the Somali government-led political the necessary steps, in accordance with its ous levels, and stop any further reduction of process and the federal government’s prepa- mandate, to maintain international peace troops, asserting the timeframes and troop rations for 2020-2021 elections. The Council and security, put an end to those actions, and levels outlined in resolution 2372 were not also requested continued support for the gov- ensure the implementation of its resolution realistic and would lead to a reversal of the ernment’s efforts to implement the country’s on Somalia. gains made by AMISOM. (When the Coun- National Strategy and Action Plan for Prevent- Tensions between the speaker of parlia- cil renewed AMISOM’s authorisation last ing and Countering Violent Extremism. ment, Mohamed Osman Jawari, and Presi- August, it decided to reduce the authorised Speaking after the adoption, Somali Per- dent Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farma- troop level by 500 uniformed personnel manent Representative Abukar Dahir Osman jo resulted in a standoff at the parliament on by the end of 2017 to a maximum level of said that, while there may be nuanced differ- 4 April that threatened to turn violent. Allies 21,626 and to withdraw a further 1,000 per- ences in how Council members assessed the of the president and prime minister sought to sonnel by 30 October 2018.) current situation, they were united in recog- put forward a no-confidence motion against On 19 April, the Secretary-General trans- nising the important role that the UN would Jawari, reflecting a longstanding dispute mitted to the Council a report on the future continue to play in promoting peace and over the exercise of legislative and executive funding of AMISOM, which was prepared by stability in his country. He said he remained powers. Parliamentary police loyal to Jawari the AU and UN Special Envoys on AMISOM deeply concerned about comments periodi- deployed inside the parliament to prevent a Funding, Ramtane Lamamra and Jean-Marie cally made by senior UNSOM officials at vote on the motion while state security forces Guéhenno. As Special Envoys, they had conferences on political issues that are some- loyal to the president were stationed outside been appointed to lead a consultative pro- times erroneous, which have negative effects the building. The standoff ended peacefully cess and to make recommendations on the in the Security Council and in Somalia. after AMISOM intervened to encourage best options for predictable and sustainable Osman also noted that Somalia’s parlia- the sides to engage in dialogue. On 9 April, funding for AMISOM and the Somali secu- ment had voted earlier that month to unani- Jawari resigned ahead of another planned no- rity forces. The report, which has not been mously reject the United Arab Emirates confidence vote. published, recommended that discussion on (UAE)-based Dubai Ports World agreement On 8 April, a day before Jawari’s resigna- AMISOM and its funding be placed in the with the regional authority of Somaliland and tion, Somali security services seized a $9.6 context of a broader international strategy for

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2408 (27 March 2018) renewed the mandate of UNSOM for an additional year. S/RES/2372 (30 August 2017) reauthorised AMISOM until 31 May 2018. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8215 (27 March 2018) was the adoption of resolution 2408, renewing UNSOM’s mandate for an addi- tional year. Security Council Press Statement SC/13277 (4 April 2018) condemned in the strongest terms the 1 April attack perpetrated by Al-Shabaab in Lower Shabelle, in which a number of AMISOM soldiers were killed and injured.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Somalia

Somalia. It reiterated that assessed contribu- such responsibilities. Closely related is the and technical capacity challenges facing tions remains the best long-term option for need to secure predictable and sustainable the government, relations between the fed- sustainable and predictable funding of the funding for AMISOM and Somali security eral member states and federal government, mission but in the meantime, given realities, institutions. and the government’s AMISOM transition voluntary contributions should be pursued. In addition to the funding report, the plan. It may cover the humanitarian situation, The armed group Al-Shabaab continues Somali government is developing an where famine remains a risk. to be a potent threat, highlighted by Spe- AMISOM transition plan; at press time, it was cial Representative and head of UNSOM anticipated the plan would be presented at an Council Dynamics Michael Keating in his last Council briefing EU security summit on Somalia on 2 May in On Somalia generally, Council members on 24 January, when he drew attention to its Brussels. The AU and UN are also expected are united in supporting state-building pro- 14 October terrorist attack in Mogadishu that to complete a review of the AMISOM con- cesses and in their support for AMISOM, as killed over 500 people, the group’s deadliest cept of operations soon. These reports and demonstrated by unified messages and the attack. On 4 April, Council members issued a reviews should feed into the Council’s con- uncontentious adoption of several recent press statement that condemned in the stron- sideration of the AMISOM re-authorisation Council outcomes on Somalia. Concerning gest terms Al-Shabaab’s attack of 1 April on in May. However, the comprehensive assess- AMISOM, however, some Council members the Ugandan contingent of AMISOM in ment report of AMISOM, requested by 15 have expressed more caution about the draw- Lower Shabelle, in which a number of sol- April in resolution 2372, has been postponed down of troops than others. diers were killed and injured. until June. The AU continues to press the Council to One option is to extend AMISOM’s do more to ensure predictable and sustain- Key Issues and Options authorisation for a shortened period so as to able funding for AMISOM. It appears that Regarding AMISOM’s re-authorisation, a key consider any substantive changes to the mis- most Council members are in favour of pro- issue is ensuring that the mission is equipped sion following the completion of the compre- viding some funding to AMISOM through to adequately strengthen the Somali forces hensive assessment expected in June. UN assessed contributions. The US, howev- so they can progressively take the lead in On UNSOM, the Secretary-General’s first er, is opposed to the idea—a reality acknowl- providing security, as a premature hando- report since the Council renewed the mis- edged by the Secretary-General when he ver of security responsibilities would risk sion’s mandate is due by 1 May. An issue for discussed the funding report at his monthly undermining Somalia’s security and politi- the Council is how UNSOM has been able to luncheon with the Council—which makes cal gains. An operational readiness report on support the Somali government. The report using assessed contributions very unlikely. Somali security forces conducted in Decem- will likely cover issues around political and The UK is the penholder on Somalia. ber 2017 concluded that Somali forces were security developments, peacebuilding and Kazakhstan chairs the 751/1907 Somalia and very limited in their capacity to take over state-building processes, including financial Eritrea Sanctions Committee.

Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action the non-proliferation of weapons of mass of the Ombudsperson, including commu- In May, the Council is scheduled to receive destruction. nications among the Ombudsperson, the its annual briefing from the chairs of its sanctions committee and petitioners. (The counter-terrorism-related committees. The Key Recent Developments Ombudsperson position has been vacant briefers will be Ambassador Kairat Umarov 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida since 7 August 2017.) (Kazakhstan), chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Sanctions Committee The Council adopted resolution 2396 on Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) The Council unanimously adopted resolu- foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) and return- (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Commit- tion 2368 on 20 July 2017, renewing and ees on 21 December 2017. The resolution tee; Ambassador Gustavo Meza-Cuadra updating the 1267/1989/2253 sanctions acknowledges that returning and relocating (Peru), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terror- regime. The updates are intended to better FTFs have participated in attacks in their ism Committee (CTC); and Ambassador reflect the current and evolving threat pre- countries of origin or third countries, including Sacha Sergio Llorenty Solíz (Bolivia), chair sented by Al-Qaida and ISIL. The resolution assaults on public spaces and civilian targets, of the 1540 Committee, which focuses on also provides updates concerning the Office and therefore present an immediate threat to

UN DOCUMENTS ON COUNTER-TERRORISM Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2396 (21 December 2017) addressed the threat of foreign terrorist fighters. S/RES/2395 (21 December 2017) renewed the mandate of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate until 31 December 2021. S/RES/2368 (20 July 2017) renewed and updated the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) & Al-Qaida Sanctions regime. Through an annex to the resolution, eight individuals or organisations were added to the sanctions list. Security Council Letter S/2018/340 (12 April 2018) was the 17th programme of work of the 1540 Committee. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8230 (12 April 2018) was the annual briefing by the chair of the 1540 Committee. S/PV.8180 (13 February 2018) was a briefing by the chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee, Gustavo Meza-Cuadra (Peru), on the implementation of resolution 2341 concerning critical infrastructure. S/PV.8059 (28 September 2017) was a briefing by Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the UNOCT; Ambassador Amr Abdellatif Aboulatta (Egypt); and David Scharia, CTED deputy head of the Assessment and Technical Assistance Office.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Counter-Terrorism member states. In aiming to address this threat, Arria-formula meeting on Peru’s initiative A key issue for the 1540 Committee is the it calls on states to assess and investigate sus- titled “Enhancing synergies between the follow-up on implementation and reporting to pected individuals whom they have reasonable United Nations and regional and subregional the committee. grounds to believe are terrorists, including sus- organisations to address the nexus between pected FTFs and their accompanying spouses, terrorism and transnational organised crime”. Council Dynamics children and other family members. Among the briefers were CTED Executive In the past, most counter-terrorism-related The 1267/1989/2253 sanctions list, which Director Michèle Coninsx, the executive discussions were held in the Council’s sub- was last updated on 29 March, currently con- director of the UN Office on Drugs and sidiary organs, but over the last two years the tains the names of 257 individuals and 82 Crime, Under-Secretary-General Yuri Fedo- Council has discussed and adopted decisions entities. tov, and Voronkov. on various aspects of counter-terrorism and related issues, including updating the Al-Qai- 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee 1540 Committee da and ISIL sanctions regime and the man- On 28 September 2017, Under-Secretary- On 12 April, Solíz held his annual Coun- date of CTED and addressing FTFs, return- General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the cil briefing as the chair of the 1540 Com- ees and others. UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), mittee. Solíz provided an overview of the The importance of counter-terrorism briefed the Council for the first time. Also programme of work for the upcoming year, efforts enjoys overall unanimity among briefing the Council were then-chair of the which includes plans by the committee Council members, notwithstanding diver- CTC, Ambassador Amr Abdellatif Aboulatta to hold deliberations on enforcing appli- gences over the politicisation of the issue (Egypt), and David Scharia, the deputy head cable laws for the prohibition of activities in the Middle East. However, frictions on of the Assessment and Technical Assistance under paragraph 2 of resolution 1540. Solíz certain issues remain, such as divergences Office of the Counter-Terrorism Committee emphasised that reporting on the imple- between Russia and other member states over Executive Directorate (CTED), the Secretariat mentation of resolution 1540 remains one the identity of the new Ombudsperson to be body that assists the CTC. of the main priorities of the committee. He appointed by the Secretary-General. On 21 December 2017, the Council said that 180 out of 193 member states That some differences remain between adopted resolution 2395, renewing the man- have submitted their national reports and Council members in their approach towards date of CTED as a special political mis- that the committee will continue to work counter-terrorism was also evident during sion until 31 December 2021. The resolu- on achieving universal reporting as soon the negotiations over resolutions 2395 and tion addresses CTED’s functions within the as possible. In addition, Solíz informed 2396. For example, several states, mainly the wider UN system, including the relationship the Council that Bolivia planned to host a western ones, took the view with respect to between CTED and the UNOCT. It provides regional conference on the implementation FTFs and returnees that states need to dis- a comprehensive text regarding CTED’s full of resolution 1540 for Latin American and tinguish between FTFs and their families in mandate, which now encompasses cross-cut- Caribbean countries in May. their screening process rather than automati- ting issues, such as FTFs and countering vio- cally assume they are complicit. Furthermore, lent extremism. It stresses that assessing the Key Issues they wanted the resolution to call on states to implementation of resolution 1373 and other A key issue for the committees is to ensure that develop comprehensive prosecution, rehabili- relevant counter-terrorism resolutions is the they are able to address the widening scope and tation and reintegration strategies to deter- core function of CTED. various facets of the Council’s counter-terror- mine the most appropriate solution for FTFs On 13 February, Meza-Cuadra briefed the ism agenda within their respective mandates. and their families. However, Russia took the Council on the implementation of resolution A particular issue for the 1267/1989/2253 view that FTFs should be held criminally lia- 2341 on the protection of critical infrastructure Committee is to continue to strengthen mem- ble, and that family members travelling with against terrorist threats. ber states’ compliance with the sanctions FTFs are complicit and should, therefore, be On 9 April, Council members held an regime. held accountable.

Guinea-Bissau

Expected Council Action extending the mandate of the UN Integrat- the two-and-a-half-year political crisis in In May, the Council is expecting a brief- ed Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau and starting preparations for ing on Guinea-Bissau. This will be an oral (UNIOGBIS) for a year. legislative elections. update from the Secretariat, which the Coun- Key Recent Developments The Economic Community of West Afri- cil requested in its 28 February resolution Rare progress has emerged towards resolving can States (ECOWAS) imposed targeted

UN DOCUMENTS ON GUINEA-BISSAU Security Council Resolution S/RES/2404 (28 February 2018) extended the mandate of UNIOGBIS for one year. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8194 (28 February 2018) was the adoption of resolution 2404 and explanation of vote. S/PV.8182 (14 February 2018) was a briefing from Touré. Security Council Press Statement SC/13218 (21 February 2018) took note of ECOWAS’s decision to sanction 19 individuals for obstructing implementation of the Conakry Agreement.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Guinea-Bissau sanctions on 4 February on 19 individu- UN Secretary-General António Guterres outstanding funding needs for the legislative als allied with President José Mario Vaz for issued a statement on 17 April to welcome elections. obstructing implementation of the October the breakthroughs. Special Representative for 2016 Conakry Agreement on ending the Guinea-Bissau Modibo Touré briefed Coun- Council and Wider Dynamics political crisis. These included Vaz’s son, Fer- cil members in consultations under “any oth- On Guinea-Bissau, the Council tends to fol- nando Vaz; members of the Party for Social er business” via video teleconference on 19 low the lead of ECOWAS, seeking to support Renewal (PRS), which is the main opposi- April. Members issued press elements follow- its decisions or agreements. On the ground, tion party in the National Assembly; and the ing the meeting, which expressed full support representatives in Bissau from ECOWAS, the dissident members of parliament from the for ECOWAS’s sustained efforts and under- AU, the Community of Portuguese Language majority African Party for the Independence scored the importance of swiftly forming an Countries, the UN and the EU—collective- of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). inclusive government and taking other steps ly referred to as the P5 in Guinea-Bissau— Following the imposition of the sanctions, for conducting timely and credible elections often act together to defuse tensions. Coun- two mediation processes were undertaken. and implementing the Conakry agreement. cil members’ concerns over the course of the Discussions were held between the PAIGC On 25 April, Vaz issued a decree announc- political crisis have included the possibility and PRS, reportedly facilitated by Angola, to ing a new inclusive government comprised that a deterioration of the situation could lead gain agreement on names for a new consen- of 18 ministers and eight secretaries of state, to an increase in transnational crime, such as sual prime minister. Similarly, the Catholic who were sworn in the following day. drug trafficking and piracy, or be exploited by Archbishop of Bissau brought together the terrorist groups in the region. Members also two parties to discuss holding a plenary ses- Key Issues and Options commonly express concern about the risk of sion of the National Assembly, which has not While there have been recent positive devel- Guinea-Bissau’s military interfering in the met since January 2016, so as to appoint four opments, challenges remain in carrying for- political situation, given the country’s history. new members of the National Electoral Com- ward the Conakry Agreement and organis- The mandate renewal of UNIOGBIS in mission (CNE), whose terms had expired, ing the legislative elections that will require February this year revealed some emerging and to extend the mandate of the current close attention amidst what is still likely to differences. The US—frustrated by the lack legislature, which was expiring on 23 April, be a difficult political situation. An immedi- of any progress at the time and in line with its until legislative elections could be organised. ate need is updating the voter registration, position to seek the drawdown of long-stand- ECOWAS, aware of these mediation which should be done annually but has not ing UN operations—pushed for only a six- efforts and an apparent agreement among occurred since 2014. This includes obtaining month renewal. Other members opposed this, the PAIGC and PRS on a new prime minis- the funds required for the registration (esti- in part to avoid creating uncertainty about the ter, deployed a ministerial mission to Bissau mated to cost $800,000 to $1 million) and for mission’s future amidst the need to support on 11 April led by Togolese Foreign Minister the overall organisation of the elections (an the upcoming elections. These differences, Robert Dussey. Three days later, on 14 April, estimated $7.1 million). The Guinea-Bissau though, led to removing some of UNIOG- the mission reported on developments at an government is expected to contribute $4.5 BIS’s mandated tasks and pushing up the extraordinary summit of ECOWAS heads million but may not have these resources time-frame of a proposed Secretary-General’s of states and government in Lomé, Togo. available until after the cashew harvest. Other assessment to consider a future UN presence, In addition to Vaz, the National Assembly critical provisions of the Conakry Agreement which will now be submitted to the Council president and representatives of the PAIGC on which progress is needed include adopt- in nine months as opposed to a year. Reso- and PRS were invited. At the summit, Vaz ing the government programme (akin to the lution 2404 also established a more frequent agreed to name Aristides Gomes as prime government budget), agreeing to a stability reporting cycle during 2018 in response to minister and to set 18 November as the date pact, passing electoral law reforms, and con- some members’ concerns about elections tak- for legislative elections. An ECOWAS com- ducting a constitutional review. ing place in a politically fragile environment. muniqué announced the agreement, which A further issue is progress in realigning the The UN’s oral update in May is a result of also endorsed extending the mandate of work of UNIOGBIS following the re-priori- this provision. During the negotiation, Rus- the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau tisation and streamlining of its tasks during sia sought more neutral language on how the (ECOMIB) to 30 June 2018. the mission’s February mandate renewal in Council referred to the ECOWAS sanctions, On 16 April, Vaz dismissed Prime Min- resolution 2404. A UN technical assessment as it objects to sanctions not established by the ister Artur Silva, whom he had appointed mission deployed to Guinea-Bissau in March Security Council, and does not view the politi- in January, and subsequently issued decrees to assist with this reorganisation. cal crisis as a threat to international peace and appointing Gomes as the new prime minister The Council, as it has done, may seek to security that would warrant Council sanctions. and establishing 18 November as the date for politically support further ECOWAS initia- Côte d’Ivoire is the penholder on Guinea- legislative elections. On 19 April, the plenary tives. Another option in addressing some Bissau. As a West African country, it request- of the National Assembly convened, taking of these issues is issuing a statement at the ed the Council’s April briefing following the decisions to appoint the CNE President and time of the Council meeting that encourages ECOWAS summit. Equatorial Guinea chairs its executive and deputy secretaries and to Bissau-Guinean stakeholders to continue to the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Commit- extend the mandate of the current legislature. implement the Conakry Agreement’s provi- tee, which was established in 2012 after the Staying abreast of these developments, sions while encouraging donors to support country’s last coup d’état.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Rule of Law

Expected Council Action by the foreign minister of Lithuania, Linas for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) officially An open debate on the maintenance of inter- Linkevičius. The Secretary-General briefed closed on 31 December 2017, after deliver- national peace and security with an emphasis the Council, and representatives of 64 mem- ing its final judgement on 15 December 2017. on the Council’s role in upholding interna- ber states, the EU and Palestine participated. During its existence, the ICTY concluded tional law within the context of peace and Two days later, the Council adopted a presi- proceedings against 161 persons indicted, security is planned in May. The Secretary- dential statement underlining the importance with 90 individuals sentenced, 19 acquit- General is expected to brief the Council, and for peacekeeping operations and special polit- ted, 13 referred to a national jurisdiction, 37 Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, is expect- ical missions to support the strengthening of whose indictments were withdrawn or who ed to preside. No outcome is expected, but a rule of law institutions in their host countries are deceased, and two with retrials to be con- note summarising the debate will be circu- within the scope of their mandates. ducted by the Residual Mechanism. lated to the wider membership. Key Developments since the 2014 Key Issues and Options Background Debate Key issues Poland hopes members will focus In recent years, rule of law and justice issues Several developments relating to various on during the debate include: have gained prominence in Council thinking aspects of the rule of law have taken place • enhancing the Council’s efforts on the and discussions about long-term solutions. in the Council since it last met to discuss the pacific settlement of disputes, including by They have also influenced the design of the rule of law as a general issue. binding legal procedures such as arbitra- UN’s operations in the field and are now part On 22 May 2014, France, with the sup- tion and adjudication, in accordance with of mainstream Council discussion and action. port of eight other Council members, tabled a Chapter VI of the UN Charter. Member Rule of law and international justice resolution to refer the situation in Syria to the states can encourage the Council to con- issues have also become a focus in a num- ICC. The referral was prompted by reports of sider and recommend, when appropriate, ber of other thematic issues in the Council— widespread violations of human rights and that parties to a particular dispute resolve such as protection of civilians; children and international humanitarian law by the Syr- it through legal means, and in particular armed conflict; and women, peace and secu- ian authorities, pro-government militias, and before the International Court of Justice; rity—and are referred to when the Council non-state armed groups. Cosponsored by 65 • the Council’s role in upholding interna- resorts to sanctions under Chapter VII of the states, the draft resolution was put to a vote tional law in the context of international UN Charter. on 22 May but was vetoed by China and Rus- peace and security, particularly inter- The Council held its first thematic debate sia, with 13 votes in favour. national humanitarian law and human on the rule of law in 2003, followed by debates Further on Syria, on 21 December 2016, rights law. Member states may highlight in 2004, 2006, 2010 and 2012. The last open the General Assembly established a mecha- the Council’s responsibility to overcome debate on the rule of law as a general issue nism to assist in the investigation and pros- disagreement between its members and (without focusing on any particular aspect of ecution of those responsible for crimes under restore peace and security in ongoing it) was held on 19 January 2012. In a presi- international law committed in Syria since conflicts where such violations are being dential statement following the debate, the March 2011. committed; Council recognised that sustainable peace- The International Criminal Tribunal • the Council’s role in ensuring account- building requires an integrated approach that for Rwanda (ICTR) officially closed on 31 ability for international crimes, such as strengthens the coherence between political, December 2015, after delivering its final genocide, war crimes and crimes against security, development, human rights and rule judgment on appeal on 14 December 2015. humanity. Member states may suggest of law activities. It also reaffirmed its oppo- During its two decades, the ICTR sentenced that the Council consider more frequent sition to impunity for serious violations of 61 people to terms of up to life imprison- use of the tools at its disposal, such as international humanitarian law and human ment, acquitted 14 and referred ten others commissions of inquiry or referrals to the rights law. to national jurisdictions. The Council issued ICC; and On 30 January 2013, Deputy Secretary- a press statement on 31 December, acknowl- • compliance with the UN Charter and General Jan Eliasson briefed the Council edging the ICTR’s substantial contribution Security Council resolutions. Member on rule of law, however the meeting was not and calling upon all states to cooperate with states may emphasise that the Council has open to participation by the wider member- the Residual Mechanism for the Internation- been given the unique power to authorise ship and the discussion took place in consul- al Criminal Tribunals now responsible for the collective security measures under the UN tations. On 19 February 2014, the Council arrest and prosecution of the eight remaining Charter, and that this creates both obliga- held an open debate on the role of the rule ICTR-indicted fugitives. tions on member states wishing to act uni- of law in peacekeeping operations, chaired The International Criminal Tribunal laterally but also an onus on the Council

UN DOCUMENTS ON RULE OF LAW Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2014/5 (21 February 2014) underlined the importance for a number of peacekeeping opera- tions and special political missions to support the strengthening of the rule of law institutions of their host countries within the scope of their mandates. S/PRST/2012/1 (19 January 2012) was on the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security, which included a request for the Secretary-General to provide a follow-up report within 12 months. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/341 (11 June 2013) was the annual rule of law report on measuring the effectiveness of the support provided by the UN for the promotion of the rule of law in conflict and post-conflict situations.Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7113 (19 February 2014) was an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security, chaired by the foreign minister of Lithuania, Linas Linkevičius. S/PV.6913 (30 January 2013) was a briefing on the rule of law. Other S/2014/348 (22 May 2014) was the draft resolution referring Syria to the ICC, co-sponsored by 65 member states, which was vetoed by China and Russia. All other Council members voted in favour of the referral.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Rule of Law

to take the action necessary to restore these issues. On the issue of compliance with alleged chemical weapons attack in Douma in international peace and security. Council resolutions, it wants to raise aware- Eastern Ghouta and the airstrikes by France, ness that some states do not have the capacity the UK and the US on chemical weapons Council and Wider Dynamics to implement all Council resolutions and the storage and production facilities in Syria at Poland sees the open debate, the centrepiece ways other states can assist them. the expense of other rule of law issues. This of its presidency, as an opportunity to reflect One concern over discussing issues such as could make it difficult to have a fruitful dis- on some of the key issues mentioned above, compliance with the UN Charter and inter- cussion about wider rule of law issues. with the idea of having a practical debate gen- national human rights is that members might erating concrete ideas about how to advance focus on recent events in Syria following the

Protection of Civilians

Expected Council Action regard to South Sudan, 4.3 million people are environments, noting that the ICRC “advo- In May, the Council will hold a ministerial-lev- now either internally displaced or refugees liv- cates that all parties should avoid using explo- el open debate on the protection of civilians in ing in neighbouring countries, and 5.1 million sive weapons that have a wide-impact area armed conflict. Prior to the debate, it expects people are food-insecure. In South Sudan—as in populated places”. Stagno Ugarte recom- to receive the Secretary-General’s report on in the Central African Republic, the Demo- mended that “the Secretary-General commit this topic. Themes expected to be raised in cratic Republic of the Congo and Mali—UN to alerting the Council of all future attacks on the report—and inform the debate—include peacekeepers continue to struggle to provide health-care facilities on an ongoing, rather than measures to enhance compliance with interna- effective protection to civilian populations in an annual basis”, and that the “United Nations tional humanitarian and human rights law and complex environments. system…prioritize the collection of informa- the protection of health care in armed conflict. The Security Council held its most recent tion about such attacks wherever they happen, Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz of Poland, open debate on the protection of civilians in push States to hold perpetrators responsible the Council president this month, will chair the armed conflict on 25 May 2017. This meeting and recommend avenues for accountability”. meeting. Briefers are expected to include Sec- focused broadly on the protection of civilians Since the May 2017 open debate, there retary-General António Guterres; Yves Dac- agenda, as outlined in the Secretary-Gener- have been several thematic discussions relevant cord, the Director-General of the ICRC; and al’s report (S/2017/414), and on the imple- to the protection agenda in the Council: a civil society representative. mentation of resolution 2286, specifically on • on 13 June 2017, at the initiative of Bolivia, A chair’s summary of the meeting that cap- the protection of health care in armed con- a meeting was held on a “Comprehensive tures concrete proposals for possible Council flict, which the Secretary-General is required Approach to Mine Action and Explosive follow-up is expected to be circulated to the to brief on annually. (The Secretary-General Hazard Threat Mitigation”, featuring brief- Council and the wider UN membership. will address this issue at the debate again this ings from the Assistant Secretary-General month.) In addition to Council members, 48 for Rule of Law and Security Institutions Key Recent Developments other member states participated in the 27 in the Department of Peacekeeping Opera- In the past year, the scope of the challenges May 2017 debate. tions, Alexander Zuev, and Nathalie Ochoa facing civilians in a number of conflict-affect- Briefers included Guterres, ICRC Vice Niño, a mine action worker from the UN ed countries, including several on the Coun- President Christine Beerli, and Human Rights Mine Action Service in Colombia; cil’s agenda, has remained significant. In addi- Watch’s Deputy Executive Director for Advo- • a meeting on conflict and hunger was con- tion to those civilians wounded or killed in cacy Bruno Stagno Ugarte. Guterres high- vened on 23 March at the initiative of the conflict, statistics provided by OCHA paint a lighted three ways to strengthen the protec- Netherlands, which featured briefings by bleak picture of the humanitarian impacts of tion of civilians in armed conflict: ensuring Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- warfare. In Yemen, 22.2 million people require “greater respect for international humanitar- ian Affairs Mark Lowcock and David Bea- humanitarian assistance, including 8.4 mil- ian and human rights law”; protecting health sley, the Executive Director of the World lion people who are severely food-insecure. care personnel and facilities in armed conflict; Food Programme (WFP), on behalf of the In Syria, 13.1 million people are in need of and “prevent[ing[ forced displacement and Rome-based agencies WFP, the Food and humanitarian assistance, 12.2 million people find[ing] durable solutions for refugees and Agricultural Organization, and the Inter- have been forcibly displaced by the fighting, internally displaced people”. Beerli discussed national Fund for Agricultural Develop- and 6.3 million people are food-insecure. With the difficulties of civilian protection in urban ment; and

UN DOCUMENTS ON PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2286 (3 May 2016) condemned attacks on health care workers and facilities in armed conflict. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2017/14 (9 August 2017) was on famine. Secretary General’s Report S/2017/414 (10 May 2017) was on the protection of civilians. Security Council Letter S/2016/722 (18 August 2016) transmitted the Secretary-General’s recommendations on the protection of health care in armed conflict.Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8213 (23 March 2018) was a briefing on conflict and hunger. S/PV.8069 (12 October 2017) was a briefing on the risk of famine in four countries—Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen. S/PV.7966 (13 June 2017) was on a “Comprehensive Approach to Mine Action and Explosive Hazard Threat Mitigation”. S/PV.7951 (25 May 2017) was a debate on the protection of civilians.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Protection of Civilians

• during the past year, there have also been a chair’s summary as proposed by Poland is realise that more needs to be done to translate Arria-formula meetings on attacks on one option. advances at the normative level into effective schools (13 October 2017), particularly An additional possibility could be to pro- country-specific strategies. in relation to the protection of children in duce a presidential statement that: Political differences among permanent armed conflict, and unarmed approaches • emphasises the importance of the Secre- members have hindered the Council’s ability to the protection of civilians (30 November tary-General using his article 99 powers to play an effective role in protecting civilians 2017). to inform the Council and provide it with in some situations on the Council’s agenda, Another notable meeting with regard to recommendations for action when large- including in Burundi, Syria, and Yemen. the protection agenda, held on 12 October scale attacks on civilians are anticipated or There are further divisions among mem- 2017, was the briefing to the Council by the unfolding; bers regarding the Council’s approach to pro- Secretary-General on the risk of famine in four • calls on UN country teams to negotiate tecting civilians. Some members, including the countries—Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and commitments from armed non-state actors P3 and others, tend to advocate accountabil- Yemen—as called for by the August presiden- to adhere to international human rights and ity measures and sanctions as mechanisms for tial statement on the issue. humanitarian law; leveraging compliance from conflict parties to • requests that the UN system develop a civil- conform with international human rights and Key Issues and Options ian casualty-tracking process to monitor humanitarian law, whereas other members, The overarching key issue is whether, and violations of international law in country- such as China and Russia, tend to be more how, discussions about the protection of civil- specific cases of conflict; circumspect about using such measures and ians at the thematic level can be translated • condemns the arbitrary refusal of humani- emphasise the importance of state sovereignty. into concrete measures to mitigate the suf- tarian access by conflict parties; and The need to implement resolution 2286 fering of civilians in armed conflicts around • requests the UN system to develop a mech- on the protection of health care in armed con- the world. In this sense, it is important for the anism to collect data on attacks on medical flict is an ongoing concern to several member Council to consider how the open debate can workers and facilities across conflicts in a states, both on and off of the Council. Canada galvanise greater attention to, and support for, standardised way. and Switzerland currently co-chair an infor- addressing the needs of civilians in conflict- A related option would be to listen to the mal group of friends working to implement the affected countries. ideas of Council members and the wider mem- resolution. Since the resolution’s adoption, one One option is for member states to ensure bership during the open debate and to use challenge has been that some of the perma- that their statements focus on how the protec- these ideas to help inform an outcome to be nent members of the Council have either been tion of civilians can be enhanced in country- produced in the weeks after the debate. involved in armed conflicts or provide military specific contexts with regard to compliance support to conflict parties in which attacks on with international law and accountability, the Council and Wider Dynamics health care have been reported. protection of medical facilities and person- Council members (and the wider membership) Some members may also use the oppor- nel, and humanitarian access, among other are acutely aware of the devastating impact that tunity to emphasise their commitment to the relevant issues. armed conflict has had on civilians in recent Kigali principles, which were articulated in Another key issue is the need to ensure that years, and the debate affords an opportunity to 2015 to provide guidance to peacekeepers there continues to be follow-up and engage- reaffirm commitments to international human regarding the protection of civilians. ment on protection issues in the aftermath of rights and humanitarian law in armed conflict The UK is the penholder on the protection the debate. Capturing concrete proposals in situations. At the same time, member states of civilians in armed conflict.

G5 Sahel Joint Force

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments the ways in which the international com- In May, the Council is expected to receive The FC-G5S was formed by the countries munity, including the UN Multidimension- a briefing from Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under- of the G5 Sahel—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, al Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- Mauritania and Niger—in 2017, compris- (MINUSMA), is expected to provide support tions, on the activities of the joint force of ing up to 5,000 personnel in order to com- to the FC-G5S. In particular, the resolution the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel), bat terrorism and drug and human traffick- requested the Secretary-General to conclude or FC-G5S. ing in the Sahel. On 8 December 2017, the a technical agreement among the UN, the Council adopted resolution 2391, clarifying EU and the G5 Sahel states for the provision

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE SAHEL Security Council Resolutions Resolution 2391 (8 December 2017) outlined the ways in which MINUSMA is expected to support the G5 Sahel joint force and described how the UN will be reimbursed for its assistance. Resolution 2359 (21 June 2017) welcomed the deployment of the G5 Sahel force. Secretary-General’s Report S/2018/273 (29 March 2018) was on the situation in Mali. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8129 (8 December 2017) was the meeting at which resolution 2391 was adopted. Security Council Press Statement SC/13234 (2 March 2018) condemned in the strongest terms terrorist attacks earlier that day in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, against the army headquarters and the French Embassy.

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 G5 Sahel Joint Force of operational and logistical support through and Aguelhok that killed three peacekeepers, possible measures to enhance efficiency MINUSMA to the joint force, including while a fourth peacekeeper was killed by an of that support given the multiple chan- medical and casualty evacuation capabili- attack on a UN vehicle. nels for donors—including the EU’s Afri- ties, access to life-support consumables, and Violence continued in Burkina Faso—in can Peace Facility, the G5 Trust Fund and engineering support. The resolution also particular, from the Burkinabe group Ansa- bilateral mechanisms; described how the UN would be reimbursed rul Islam in the north—and in parts of Niger, • implementation of the technical agree- for its assistance to the force, which is expect- where Islamic State in the Greater Saharathe ment on support provided by MINUS- ed to be a temporary measure applying to G5 Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims MA to the FC-G5S, an assessment of the Sahel troops deployed on Malian territory. It (JNIM) and Boko Haram are present. From impact on MINUSMA, which is strug- requested a follow-up Secretary-General’s mid- to late-January, the FC-G5S conduct- gling to fill its own needs, and develop- report on the activities of the FC-G5S in five ed Operation Pagnali along the border area ment of benchmarks that would indicate months, followed by reports every six months. between Burkina Faso and Mali, the joint the level of operationalisation of the FC- On 23 February, more than 60 coun- force’s second operation since its establishment. G5S at which MINUSMA’s logistical tries and multilateral organisations attended On 2 March armed attacks in Ouagadou- and operational support may be gradually the International High Level Conference gou, Burkina Faso, claimed by JNIM, target- withdrawn; and on the Sahel, held in Brussels. The summit ed the defence headquarters and the French • challenges encountered by the joint was organised under the auspices of the EU, embassy. At least 16 people were killed, force and possible measures for further the UN, the AU and the G5 Sahel countries. including nine assailants. The attack on the consideration. Donors increased their pledges for the FC- defence headquarters happened as officials Steps taken to ensure that FC-G5S oper- G5S to a total of 414 million euros, with the from the G5 countries were to hold a meeting ations are conducted in full compliance with EU doubling its contribution from 50 million there that day on the FC-G5S. international humanitarian law is a related to 100 million euros. A communiqué by the Resolution 2391 welcomed the Secretary- issue to be covered in the Secretary-Gen- co-chairs called for renewed support for the General’s efforts “to give renewed impetus” eral’s report. This includes implementation political efforts of the G5 Sahel countries to to implementing the UN Integrated Strate- by G5 Sahel states of a “compliance frame- achieve conditions for lasting stability in the gy for the Sahel (UNISS), first developed in work”, the Human Rights Due Diligence region; encouraged full implementation of 2013 to address the root causes of the region’s Policy on UN support to non-UN securi- the Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation instability and to ensure coordination of ty forces, and ways to mitigate any adverse in Mali; and announced the conclusion of the international assistance. On 21 March, the impact of the military operations of the FC- technical agreement, signed on the margins Secretary-General appointed Ibrahim Thiaw G5S on the civilian population, including on of the summit, between the EU Commission, of Mauritania as his Special Adviser for the women and children. the UN and the G5 Sahel to provide sup- Sahel to support Mohammed Ibn Chambas, Another significant issue is the importance port through MINUSMA to the joint force. the Special Representative and head of the of complementing military efforts with initia- The agreement, according to the Secretary- UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel, in tives to address grievances of local popula- General’s 29 March report on Mali, includes advancing efforts to “recalibrate” the UNISS tions and development challenges that have medical and casualty evacuation and engi- and a new Sahel Support Plan being devel- enabled the rise of terrorist groups in the neering and logistical support from MINUS- oped to trigger investment and mobilise fur- Sahel. These include initiatives such as the MA, at an estimated cost of 44 million euros ther resources. UNISS and the French-German-EU Alli- over two years. The EU is contributing 10 On 25 April, a follow up high-level meet- ance for the Sahel. million euros of this total through a separate ing to the Brussels conference was held in Council follow-up action is likely to financial agreement. Previously, on 8 January, New York. Lacroix briefed that MINUSMA depend on the recommendations in the G5 Sahel countries decided to create a trust was prepared to provide medical evacuation upcoming report of the Secretary-General, fund to channel donor funds for the force. and life support provisions. But the mission who has appeared keen to ensure more pre- The security situation across the Sahel could not move forward with its engineering dictable and reliable funding for the FC-G5S. remains unstable. Mali, which is the epicen- support, which is currently the most urgent Council members may seek to adopt a reso- tre of the crisis, continues to see an intensi- activity, such as constructing camps, until lution that would mandate a support pack- fication of violence. During the first quarter more funding than the EU contribution of age for the FC-G5S if the Secretary-General of 2018, the UN reported 63 attacks con- 10 million euros is predictably secured. reiterates the options from his October 2017 ducted by terrorist groups. Malian forces report, including those that implied establish- were the most heavily targeted, recording 45 Key Issues and Options ing a dedicated UN support office financed soldiers killed. Among international forces, Many of the issues related to the FC-G5S through assessed contributions. four MINUSMA peacekeepers and two sol- expected to be highlighted in the Secretary- diers from France’s regional counter-terror- General’s report include: Council Dynamics ist Operation Barkhane were killed. In April, • progress in the deployment of the Before agreeing on resolution 2391, discus- the trend appeared to continue, including FC-G5S; sions about whether the UN was able to sup- attacks on MINUSMA camps in Timbuktu • international support for the force and port the FC-G5S divided the Council. The

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 23 G5 Sahel Joint Force

Secretary-General laid out several options to some multilateral support for the FC-G5S, Haley at the adoption of resolution 2391, provide additional support through the UN some members—including France, which that its agreeing to MINUSMA’s provision (including mandating support packages or has championed the joint force—believe of logistical support is the extent of any sup- adjusting MINUSMA’s mandate), but the there is still a case for providing further sup- port role that the UN should play, and before US and others preferred to assist the force port. That support could be both financial expanding this, the Council should see how bilaterally and warned against increasing the and political, including through a Chapter the arrangement works. responsibilities of an already over-stretched VII Council mandate. The US still takes France has acted as the penholder on mission. While resolution 2391 established the position as stated by Ambassador Nikki Council products on the G5 Sahel joint force.

Burundi

Expected Council Action escalation between the government and those consensus of all stakeholders, which requires In May, the Secretary-General’s Special that oppose it. a political and security environment that all Envoy, Michel Kafando, is expected to brief A referendum on amendments to the political actors can feel confident about. The the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest constitution is scheduled for 17 May. The Council expressed its expectation that the report on the situation in Burundi. The chair amendments remove references to the Arusha 2020 elections will be free, fair, transparent, of the Peacebuilding Commission’s Burun- Accord. They extend the presidential term peaceful and inclusive. Resolution 2303 of 29 di Configuration, Ambassador Jürg Lauber from the current five years to seven years and July 2016, which authorised the deployment (Switzerland), may also brief. provide that the maximum of two presidential of a police component to Burundi but has The Netherlands and Equatorial-Guinea terms is to be counted from the adoption of not been implemented because of Burundi’s are expected to organise an Arria-formula the amendments, thus allowing Nkurunziza opposition, is not mentioned in the statement. meeting during May to discuss the situa- to run for re-election in 2020. The amend- On 16 April, a joint UN-AU communiqué tion in Burundi further, with a particular ments further provide for a possible future was issued expressing concern over the deci- focus on the Arusha Accord, which in 2000 review of the ethnic quotas—a key element of sion by the government of Burundi to sus- put an end to civil war and ethnic violence the Arusha Accord—of 60 percent Hutu and pend its participation in the Inter-Burundi and established the basis for the current 40 percent Tutsi in the executive branch, the Dialogue led by the EAC. In a statement the constitution. parliament and the judicial branch. following day, Burundi’s ambassador to the On 26 February, Kafando briefed the UN, Albert Shingiro, expressed Burundi’s Key Recent Developments Council on the Secretary-General’s latest commitment to the dialogue and said that it The security and political situation in Burun- report. Lauber also briefed the Council. In was in touch with the EAC facilitator of the di—which deteriorated sharply after April the report, the Secretary-General expressed dialogue, Benjamin Mkapa, regarding the 2015 when Burundian President Pierre concern regarding the lack of inclusiveness next meeting. (Burundi cancelled a meeting Nkurunziza announced that he would run and consensus among the key political stake- planned for the end of April to allow it to for a controversial third term later that year— holders regarding the upcoming referendum. focus on the referendum, according to the remains unsettled. The Burundian govern- During consultations following the brief- government.) The joint UN-AU statement ment, for its part, maintains that the security ing, France proposed circulating a draft presi- has since been removed from the AU website. situation is good throughout the country. dential statement to address the current situ- Also on 17 April, several media outlets At the same time, serious human rights ation. About five weeks after the draft was first reported that Burundi’s security forces and abuses continue to be committed daily with circulated, on 5 April, the Council adopted a the Imbonerakure have been killing, beat- impunity, and oppression and state control presidential statement condemning all viola- ing and intimidating suspected opponents of over Burundian society—including the oppo- tions and abuses of human rights in Burundi. Nkurunziza, in order to ensure a favourable sition and the media—remain high, exerted The statement supported the inter-Burun- result in the referendum. mainly by the government and the Imboner- dian dialogue led by the East African Com- akure, the youth group of Nkurunziza’s party. munity (EAC), while expressing concern Human Rights-Related Developments House search operations, arbitrary arrests over its slow progress and the lack of engage- On 1 February, the president of the Human Rights Council (HRC), Vojislav Šuc, announced the and other abuses have reportedly become ment by the Burundian government. While appointment of Doudou Diène (Senegal) to serve the norm. Thus, while the security situation not mentioning the referendum explicitly, as a member and new chairperson of the three may not have deteriorated, many fear it is the statement called on Burundi to under- person HRC-mandated Commission of Inquiry on untenable and masks a serious risk of violent take all political initiatives through a broad Burundi, replacing Fatsah Ouguergouz (Alergia).

UN DOCUMENTS ON BURUNDI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2303 (29 July 2016) established a UN police component in Burundi of 228 officers for an initial period of one year. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2018/7 (5 April 2018) condemned all violations and abuses of human rights in Burundi. Security-General’s Report S/2018/89 (25 January 2018) was on the situation in Burundi. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8223 (5 April 2018) was a meeting at which a presidential statement condemning human rights abuses in Burundi was adopted. S/PV.8189 (26 February 2018) was a briefing by Special Envoy Michel Kafando on the Secretary-General’s latest report on Burundi. The chair of the Peacebuilding Commission’s Burundi Configuration, Ambassador Jürg Lauber (Switzerland), also briefed the Council.

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 Burundi

In early March, Lucy Asuagbor (Cameroon) was the international community and for finding com- would be to impose targeted sanctions against appointed, replacing Reine Alapini Gansou (Benin) mon ground with the government in order to build those obstructing a genuine political dialogue, following her election as a judge at the ICC. Fran- trust and a better sense of partnership. Assistant those responsible for human rights violations, çoise Hampson (UK) remains the third member of Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support, the commission. Oscar Fernandez-Taranco, also addressed the and those who are blocking the implementa- During its 37th session, the HRC held a clus- configuration members. tion of resolution 2303. tered interactive dialogue with the commission on 13 March, which noted that restrictions imposed Council Dynamics on the media continue and that only government- Key Issues and Options Burundi remains entrenched in its opposition organised demonstrations are allowed. The commission said it had received information and The pressing issue is ensuring that the refer- to the involvement of the international com- testimonies regarding harassment committed endum of 17 May does not prompt Burundi munity in the country’s political affairs. The by officials against people considering voting to descend into chaos and further violence. Council, meanwhile, is at an impasse with against the proposed constitutional reforms. The The Council could monitor developments as respect to its engagement with the country. commission also highlighted the increase in taxes they unfold and meet as necessary. An option The fact that the 5 April presidential statement on sugar and fuel, further burdening the popu- lation in the midst of a humanitarian emergency, would be to adopt a presidential or press does not mention resolution 2303 suggests in which more than three million people require statement after the referendum, addressing that Council members have all but given up assistance. Burundi, speaking as the concerned issues that arose, with a view towards the con- on the implementation of certain elements of country, rejected the report, saying that it was duct of the 2020 elections. the resolution, such as the police deployment. rife with false allegations, and it accused the Another major issue is the continued lack The prolonged negotiations over the HRC President of trying to extend the commis- of accountability for potential human rights 5 April presidential statement, consisting sion’s mandate to new areas that were not under its mandate. The commission will present an oral violations, including crimes against human- mostly of previously agreed language, further briefing at the HRC’s 38th session in June and a ity, over the last few years in Burundi, a trend highlighted that Council members are divid- final report at its 39th session in September. that may be exacerbated further during the ed. Some Council members, questioning the In a 21 March address at the HRC introducing referendum. need for the Council’s involvement as they country reports, briefings and updates of the Sec- The lack of progress in the EAC-led medi- view the situation as an internal issue lacking retary-General and High Commissioner for Human Rights, Deputy High Commissioner for Human ation is of serious concern, particularly in a pressing security dimension, refused to refer Rights Kate Gilmore remarked that there were con- light of Burundi’s insistence that the dialogue directly to the referendum and the circum- tinued reports of killings, enforced disappearances, be held in Burundi, thus excluding from the stances surrounding it, which they view as a torture and ill-treatment, sexual violence, and arbi- discussions some opposition parties in exile sovereign prerogative of Burundi. trary arrests and detention in Burundi. that are not recognised by the government. Though all Council members agree on A general issue is for the Council to find a the importance of the viability of the Arusha Developments in the Peacebuilding new avenue for reengagement with Burundi Accord, only some Council members view the Commission in order to address the political crisis, like- constitutional amendment process as a key On 16 April, Lauber briefed the Burundi configura- ly one that is not based on resolution 2303. event that may potentially destabilise Burun- tion of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) on his 27-30 March visit to Burundi. During his visit, Perhaps the Arria-formula meeting, currently di further, similar to events that unfolded in he met with Nkurunziza and other ministers; the scheduled for late May, could address pos- April 2015. These members continue to see president of the National Independent Electoral sible options, including those that uphold the the situation as volatile and a threat to the Commission (CENI), Pierre Claver Ndayiragije; centrality of the Arusha Accord to any politi- Arusha Accords, which ended ethnic-based the leaders of several political parties; and Kaf- cal solution. violence and a civil war. ando, among others. Lauber stressed that there is a need for coherence among UN actors and One possible way to address these issues France is the penholder on Burundi.

Iraq

Expected Council Action on the Secretary-General’s report on UNAMI Key Recent Developments In May, the Special Representative and and the most recent developments. Iraqi government forces defeated the Islam- head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq The mandate of UNAMI expires on 31 July. ic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in (UNAMI), Ján Kubiš, will brief the Council December 2017 after three years of fighting

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAQ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2390 (8 December 2017) indicated that measures imposed under Chapter VII of the UN Charter regarding the oil- for-food programme had been fully implemented. S/RES/2379 (21 September 2017) was on the accountability measures for crimes committed by ISIL in Iraq. S/RES/2367 (14 July 2017) renewed UNAMI for a year. Security Council Letters S/2018/118 (9 February 2018) contained the terms of reference for the investigative team to support domestic efforts to hold ISIL accountable by collecting, preserving and storing evidence of war crimes committed by ISIL in Iraq. S/2018/63 (19 January 2018) was the Secretary-General’s request for an extension of the deadline for the submission of the terms of reference for the investigative team to hold ISIL accountable until 9 February 2018. S/2017/966 (15 November 2017) contained the executive summary, the observations and the full set of recommendations of an independent external assessment of the structure and staffing of UNAMI submitted by the team of experts. Security Council Press Statement SC/13002 (21 September 2017) expressed concern regarding the Kurdistan Regional Government’s plans to unilaterally hold a referendum on independence. Sanction Committee Document S/2017/1078 (22 December 2017) was the annual report of the 1518 Iraq Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 25 Iraq that has resulted in massive destruction of reiterated the mission’s readiness to support issues, such as human rights and the humani- infrastructure and several million internally the election process. tarian situation and the threats posed by ter- displaced people in the areas previously held There has been some easing of tensions rorism. In addition to regular briefings on by ISIL. Amidst these conditions, Iraq will in relations between Baghdad and Erbil. In UNAMI, the Council could consider receiv- hold parliamentary elections on 12 May, dur- March, Al-Abadi announced the reopening ing updates on the human rights and humani- ing which some 7,000 candidates will com- of airports in Erbil and Sulaymani-yah for tarian situations from the UN agencies with a pete for 329 available seats in the parliament. international flights. According to al-Abadi’s field presence, given the reports of violations Election campaigning officially started on 15 statement, Kurdish authorities have also committed by pro-government forces. April in most of Iraq and a day later in the agreed to the central government’s control As for accountability efforts, the Council Kurdistan region. of the airports. The Iraqi government had will continue to monitor the developments Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and imposed a ban on international flights to and regarding the formation of the investigative his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki—who from Kurdistan following the referendum on team that will support Iraqi domestic efforts are both members of the Shi’a Dawa par- independence held in the region in Septem- to hold ISIL accountable for the crimes com- ty—will lead separate coalitions within the ber of last year. Kubiš welcomed this positive mitted in the country. The Council could same party. Hadi al-Amiri—the leader of development and called for continued dia- consider holding consultations with relevant the Badr organisation, the political arm of logue on other outstanding issues between Secretariat officials involved in the forma- a Tehran-backed Shi’a militia—has entered Baghdad and Erbil. tion of the investigative team to get a bet- the race with his own coalition. A prominent In September 2017, the Council adopted ter understanding of the process. Also, the Shi’a cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, has formed resolution 2379, which requested the Sec- Council could explore the option of holding an alliance with the Communist Party. The retary-General to establish an investigative a meeting with the Secretariat to review and political landscape in Iraq has been marked team to support Iraqi domestic efforts to hold comment on the TOR for the investigative by divisions among and within major sec- ISIL accountable for crimes it committed in team, given that some delegations had con- tarian groups. Some Sunni politicians have the country. After months of negotiations cerns with some aspects of the TOR. called for the elections to be postponed due between the Secretariat and the government to concerns that the Sunni population, dis- of Iraq, the Secretary-General submitted the Council Dynamics placed as a consequence of the fight against terms of reference (TOR) for the investiga- Council members support UNAMI, and ISIL, would not be able to return in time tive team to the Council in February. In April, some subscribe to the view held by the US to vote. a needs-assessment mission was deployed to and Iraq, as well as by Kubiš, that the mis- Leading up to and during the start of Iraq to evaluate the conditions on the ground sion’s mandate is sufficiently broad and flex- the election campaign, a number of candi- for the investigative team. At press time, the ible to support the mission’s good-offices dates were attacked on different occasions. Secretary-General had yet to appoint the role. Other Council members believe that On 15 April, a car bomb targeted a convoy Special Envoy who will head the investigative UNAMI would benefit from a resolution that transporting a Turkmen candidate in Kirkuk. team as mandated by resolution 2379. updates and prioritises its tasks, given that At least one person died and over ten were the mandate has not changed since resolution injured in the attack. The same day, another Key Issues and Options 1770 was adopted more than ten years ago. candidate from the Wataniya Coalition was The Council will closely follow developments Some members have previously expressed fired upon in Baghdad. Two days earlier, related to the upcoming parliamentary elec- interest in incorporating stronger language the motorcade of another Turkmen candi- tions, given their importance for the stability in the mandate renewal resolution on such date was attacked on the road connecting of the country and because UNAMI will play issues as the promotion of national reconcili- Baghdad and Kirkuk. In a press statement, a role in the process by providing electoral ation; accountability; security sector reform; Kubiš condemned the attacks on the candi- assistance to the government of Iraq. Looking deeper political and economic reforms; wom- dates and called on the Iraqi government to ahead, the Council could consider conduct- en, peace and security; children and armed ensure a secure environment for the upcom- ing a visiting mission to Iraq after the elec- conflict; and the right of internally displaced ing elections. tions to show support for the government and persons to return to their homes. It seems In March, representatives of the political to get a better understanding of the current that the US, the penholder, and Iraq, the host parties and coalitions were invited to sign challenges on the ground (a visit to Baghdad country, are reluctant to make any substantial the Electoral Charter of Honour drafted by planned for late April was cancelled at the changes to UNAMI’s mandate. UNAMI and Iraq’s High Electoral Com- request of the government due to problems The US is the penholder on Iraq issues in mission. The charter denounces the use of with timing). general, and the UK is the penholder on Iraq- violence, sectarian and ethnic rhetoric, and Following the defeat of ISIL in December Kuwait issues. Poland is the chair of the 1518 voter intimidation. Kubiš called on all signa- of last year, the Council’s attention has gradu- Iraq Sanctions Committee. tories to abide by the charter’s provisions and ally started to shift towards other immediate

26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 DPRK (North Korea)

was discussed in the committee on 21 February. Expected Council Action One of the overall conclusions of the report is activity is currently taking place outside the In May, the chair of the 1718 Democratic that the DPRK is accessing the global financial Council, and the Council’s role will be largely People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanc- system through deceptive practices that have determined by how these larger geo-political tions Committee, Ambassador Karel van been combined with “critical deficiencies in the developments play out. If there are positive Oosterom (Netherlands), is due to provide implementation of financial sanctions”. It notes developments following the inter-Korea and that the expansion of the sanctions regime over Council members with his 90-day briefing on the last year has not been matched by the “req- US-DPRK summits, one option is for the the work of the committee. uisite political will, international coordination, pri- Council to consider a formal product encour- oritization and resource allocation necessary to aging further similar engagements. Key Recent Developments drive effective implementation”. The committee Finding the right balance between apply- Following the participation of the DPRK in is expected to meet at the end of April to discuss ing pressure through sanctions and exploring the recommendations further. the Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang, The final report highlighted the multi-million- the diplomatic track will remain an increas- Republic of Korea (ROK), in February, there dollar business of illicit ship-to-ship transfers of ingly relevant issue, especially over the next has been a flurry of diplomatic activity. On petroleum and the continued export of commodi- few months. In light of the current diplo- 6 March, senior ROK envoys and DPRK’s ties under sanctions, which generated an estimat- matic activity, the Council may need to con- supreme leader, Kim Jong-Un, met and agreed ed $200 million in revenue between January and sider whether it needs a new approach to the September 2017. It also covered how the DPRK to an inter-Korean summit of the leaders of the has managed to continue to illegally export coal DPRK that provides both a “carrot” as well DPRK and ROK, which took place on 27 April despite the sanctions. The recent designations as a “stick”. in Panmunjom. This was the first summit since are largely attributed to violations of DPRK sanc- An issue for the Council, keeping in mind 2007. ROK envoys and US President Don- tions that have occurred on the high seas, such its powers under Chapter VIII, is whether ald Trump held a meeting on 9 March, dur- as ship-to-ship transfers, fuel acquisitions, and it should encourage regional organisations, transfer of banned DPRK coal. ing which Trump accepted an invitation from On 30 March, the committee added one per- such as the Association of Southeast Asian Kim, conveyed through ROK National Securi- son and 21 entities to the sanctions list. It also Nations, to develop confidence-building ty Advisor Chung Eui-yong, to meet to discuss designated 27 vessels. So far, 80 persons and 75 mechanisms that could support positive dip- the DPRK’s nuclear programme. Preparations entities have been listed by the UN. lomatic developments. are now underway for this meeting of the two On 21 March, the Council adopted a resolution The key issue for the committee contin- extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts leaders, but the date and venue have not been assisting the sanctions committee until 24 April ues to be the implementation of the sanctions. confirmed. As part of the lead-up to this meet- 2019. The committee still has not reached agree- ing, the director of the US Central Intelligence ment on the recommendations in the pan- Agency, Mike Pompeo—who has been nomi- el’s final report. An option would be for the nated to be the next Secretary of State—met Human Rights-Related Developments chair of the committee to direct his energy to with Kim in late March. On 12 March, the Human Rights Council (HRC) more active outreach, including more open considered the report of the special rapporteur Kim visited Beijing from 25 to 28 March briefings and meetings with regional groups. on the situation of human rights in the DPRK, and met with China’s President, Xi Jinping. Tomás Ojea Quintana (A/HRC/37/69), as part of Providing member states with practical infor- This was Kim’s first foreign trip since assum- its 37th session. The report describes instanc- mation to facilitate better understanding of ing power in 2011. According to media es in which sanctions may have had a negative the available tools to help them implement reports, the two leaders discussed diplo- impact on civilians, including reduced access to sanctions could lead to improvements in the chemotherapeutic products for cancer patients matic developments in the last few months implementation rate by member states. and delays and blockages in the import of dis- as well as denuclearisation. It seems that Xi ability equipment. The report also reiterated A continuing issue is the need to mitigate has accepted an invitation to visit Pyongyang the call for a comprehensive assessment of the the humanitarian impact of sanctions. Fol- later this year. unintended impact of Security Council sanctions lowing a concerted effort by the sanctions On 19 April, ROK President Moon Jae-in on human rights in the country, in particular eco- committee to publicise the conditions for nomic, social and cultural rights. On 23 March, the said that the DPRK was not asking for the humanitarian exemptions, UN agencies and HRC adopted without a vote a resolution extend- withdrawal of US troops from the Korean ing the mandate of the special rapporteur for one international organisations now have a bet- peninsula as a precondition for denuclearisa- year (A/HRC/RES/37/28). ter understanding of this issue. The commit- tion. On 20 April, Kim announced that the tee could continue to work with OCHA and DPRK would immediately suspend nuclear Key Issues and Options other relevant organisations to ensure that it and long-range missile tests and dismantle The overarching issue for the Council contin- gets the information it needs for humanitar- its main nuclear test site. ues to be how best to reduce tensions on the ian exemptions. Korean peninsula. The recent and anticipated A future issue is what the Council’s role Sanctions-Related Developments upcoming diplomatic activity has provided might be if an agreement is reached on denu- The final report of the Panel of Experts was cir- the first glimmer of hope in years of a way clearisation of the Korean peninsula follow- culated to the Council on 1 March. The report, forward in reaching this goal. Much of this ing the upcoming summit meetings. It is which was sent to the committee on 1 February,

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DPRK Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2407 (21 March 2018) extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee until 24 April 2019. S/RES/2397 (22 December 2017) tightened sanctions further in response to the DPRK’s nuclear test. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2017/16 (29 August 2017) condemned the launch of a missile over the territory of Japan and urged the DPRK to comply with previous Council resolutions and presidential statements. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8151 (22 December 2017) was the adoption of resolution 2397. Selected Sanctions Committee Documents S/2018/171 (5 March 2018) was the final report of the Panel of Experts, including findings and recommendations for the Council.SC/13272 (30 March 2018) was on the addition of one individual, 21 entities and the designation of 27 vessels.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2018 securitycouncilreport.org 27 DPRK (North Korea) Security Council Report Staff Joanna Weschler Deputy Executive Director unclear at this point if any such agreement the denuclearisation of the Korean penin- Shamala Kandiah Thompson would require adjustments to UN sanctions, sula. However, others, particularly the US, Deputy Executive Director but Council members may wish to consider still believe it is important to continue the Paul Romita what they would be comfortable with regard- “maximum pressure” approach to the DPRK. Senior Policy Analyst ing sanctions relief. Whether there is a narrowing of these differ- Victor Casanova Abos Policy Analyst A related future issue is the role of the ent positions may depend on developments Council regarding any follow-up to a denu- following the two upcoming summits. Lindiwe Knutson Policy Analyst clearisation agreement. While UN agencies The Netherlands, which is the chair of the Dahlia Morched such as the International Atomic Energy sanctions committee for 2018, has shown in Policy Analyst Agency would take the lead role, there may be the last few months that it wants to play an Vladimir Sesar a need for the Council to continue to monitor active role as chair. It has been focused par- Policy Analyst the process through regular briefings. ticularly on outreach to member states as a Eran Sthoeger way of trying to improve implementation of Policy Analyst

Council Dynamics the sanctions. It has also been working with Benjamin Villanti Council members are aware that there will member states to try to get agreement on the Policy Analyst be some significant events in the next few recommendations of the final report of the Robbin VanNewkirk months that could fundamentally change the Panel of Experts. Website Manager Council’s consideration of this issue. They It is hard to predict how developments Audrey Waysse have generally been surprised by the change over the next few months will impact Coun- Operations Manager in the DPRK’s behaviour since the begin- cil dynamics on this issue. For many years, Maritza Lopez ning of the year. For years the approach to it was taken for granted that China and the Administrative Assistant the DPRK has been that of the “stick” rather US would negotiate resolutions on the DPRK Kaitlyn Lynes Research Assistant than the “carrot”. Since 2006, the Coun- with little involvement from the rest of the cil has regularly reacted to violations, such Council. Although Russia has become a more as missile and nuclear tests, through puni- active player on this file over the last year, Security Council Report is a non- profit organisation supported by the tive measures. While many are still cautious China was seen as the main interlocutor with Governments of Australia, Austria, and unsure if some of the recent announce- the US because of the leverage it is perceived Belgium, Denmark, Equatorial Guinea, Finland, Germany, Iceland, India, Ireland, ments will be followed through, some mem- to have with the DPRK. While China is still Italy, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New bers are beginning to think about whether a a key player on this issue, it is possible that Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Republic new approach is needed to the Council’s rela- direct talks between the US and the DPRK of Korea, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Timor-Leste, Turkey and tionship with the DPRK, including a greater might result in a re-calibration of the long- United Arab Emirates, and Carnegie response to positive developments through standing dynamic on this issue. Corporation, Humanity United and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Council outcomes and other possible means Foundation. of showing support for serious dialogue on Design Point Five, NY

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