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Exploring Technology Forecasting and Its Implications for Strategic Technology Planning Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses Winter 2-7-2018 Exploring Technology Forecasting and its Implications for Strategic Technology Planning Yonghee Cho Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Part of the Engineering Commons, and the Technology and Innovation Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Cho, Yonghee, "Exploring Technology Forecasting and its Implications for Strategic Technology Planning" (2018). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 4224. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.6108 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. Exploring Technology Forecasting and Its Implications for Strategic Technology Planning by Yonghee Cho A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Technology Management Dissertation Committee: Tugrul U. Daim, Chair Timothy R. Anderson Robert Fountain Jisun Kim Portland State University 2018 © 2017 Yonghee Cho Abstract As the importance of R&D has been growing in economic growth, the accountability and effectiveness of R&D program are highly emphasized. Especially, in times of economic downturn, the evaluation of performance in a firm is needed to justify R&D investment. In response, various attempts have been made to improve success rates of R&D projects, gain competitive advantage, and achieve a firm’s growth in profitability. In particular, in industries where technological innovation is significant, strategic technology planning and R&D capabilities may be the lead ones in defining the dynamic capabilities of a firm. In addition, technology forecasting (TF) in technology planning is a crucial step to follow before developing technologies/products/processes in need. In this regard, researchers have an abiding interest in enhancing methods to forecast emerging technology, while practitioners have a considerable interest in selecting appropriate tools to apply in their field for better forecasting results. Nevertheless, so far it is not well documented how appropriately the current research responds to this need. Thus, a thorough review on TF techniques is conducted to help researchers and practitioners capture methodologies in a tangible way and identify the current trends in the TF arena. Moreover, there is still a lack of clear guidance as to where and how particular TF methods are useful in strategic planning based on technology characteristics as well as the nature of industry. The purpose of this study is to enrich the stream of research on TF activities in a firm for practitioners and i researchers, a unique context where TF could lead to technological innovation. This research offers a classification of the approaches, and presents technological, industrial, methodological, and organizational aspects of TF methods that are inherent in TF activities. Furthermore, this study provides empirical evidences to support organizational and managerial implications regarding TF activities associated with technology planning in a firm. Research findings in regimes of technological change suggest insights on technological, organizational, and managerial processes within the firm. On the other hand, research on the effects on business performance of “best practices” of strategic planning, which enable firms to articulate their plans to develop, acquire, and deploy resources for accomplishing firms’ financial growth, has so far ignored the roles of strategic technology planning associated with TF. In this regard, this study explores a set of indicators, discusses, and presents the findings from the literature in such a way that they become useful for researchers or managers who are in charge of measuring the R&D performance and business performance from innovation activity. Next, this research tested the hypothetical framework proposed not only to provide a current snapshot of how firms across industries implement best practices in strategic technology planning, but also to improve the effectiveness of strategic planning. The results present the positive linkages between TF, technology planning, and superior business performance. The findings in this research help policy makers, universities, research institutes/national labs, and companies to enhance their decision making process on technology development. ii Dedication To my family (Joy, my wife, Joseph, Grace, and Esther, my children) Glory to our God! Glory to our King! Glory to our Lord! Ruler of Everything iii Acknowledgments This dissertation would not have been done were it not for the guidance and valuable comments from the committee. First, I would like to express my deep gratitude to Dr. Daim who continuously guided me through the completion of this research. His consistent support in many ways helped me go through the long process to finish this dissertation. Dr. Anderson also gave me critical comments on analytical problems in this research and helped me finalize my dissertation in every detail. Dr. Fountain, as a professor of Statistics Department, helped me develop the survey instrument and cover statistical issues through his classes and research guidance during my research for this dissertation. Finally, Dr. Kim also supported and guided me to go through this process and to bear this fruit of research. I benefited greatly from the input and comments by all dissertation committees, for they enriched my views about what I need to look at research problems. Committee whose good advice I did not follow should know that I tried to incorporate their thoughtful feedback, and where the comment was consistent and clear, I did. I would like to express my special gratitude to all survey respondents who provided their feedbacks and valuable inputs for this research. Without their help and insights, I would not have been done. I owe a special debt of gratitude to them. I want to express my sincere thanks to my colleagues, Chih-Jen Yu, Edwin Garces, João Ricardo Lavoie, and Rafaa Khalifa at ETM department, and expert groups for valuable comments and feedbacks on research contents and constructs, without whose expert advice, reviews of survey design, and other assistance this dissertation would never have been possible. iv Moreover, I would like to express my sincere thanks for the encouragement and prayers of people that I have known in my life, especially Hanna Jung. Last but not least, this dissertation would not have been done were it not for the encouragement of my family's support. This dissertation is dedicated to my beloved ones in my life: Heejoung Kim, my soulmate and wife, Joseph, Grace, and Esther, my children. They are thanked for their love, unwavering support, understanding, and patience that only family can give. Any errors are my sole responsibility. The road less traveled. Stay hungry, stay foolish in Truth! v Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ i Dedication .......................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iv List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures .................................................................................................................. xiii Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2 Research Background and Literature Review......................................... 4 2.1. The Concepts of Technology Forecasting and Technology Foresight ............... 7 2.2. The Subsets of Technology Forecasting ........................................................... 11 2.2.1. Characteristics of Technology Forecasting ............................................... 11 2.2.2. Assumptions of Technology Forecasting.................................................. 12 2.2.3. Technological Trajectory vs. Discontinuity .............................................. 13 2.3. The Classification of Technology Forecasting Methods .................................. 15 2.4. Exploratory Forecasting Methods ..................................................................... 17 2.4.1. Trend Extrapolation .................................................................................. 17 2.4.2. Growth Curves; S-curves .......................................................................... 18 2.4.3. Bibliometrics; Scientometrics ................................................................... 21 2.4.4. Data Mining; Text (Data) Mining ............................................................. 30 2.4.5. Analogies; Comparison-Based Prediction ................................................ 33 2.4.6. Cross Impact Analysis .............................................................................. 35 2.4.7. System Dynamics...................................................................................... 36 2.4.8. Agent-Based Modeling ............................................................................
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