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Western Rail Corridor Western Rail Corridor Financial and economic appraisal June 2020 Western Rail Corridor: Financial and Economic Appraisal Overview Public consultations This review was informed by a wide variety of opinions 6,572 20 116 Survey responses face to face meetings written submissions Implications for opening the WRC Athenry to Claremorris Building on the consultation, detailed analysis was undertaken Total passengers Capital cost Wider benefits 552k pa €263.8m €3.1m pa Based on 15 passenger trains Spread over 4 years Covering emissions, and 1 freight train per day of construction with line travel costs, noise etc (2030). (2030) opening in 2026 Ticket revenue Operating costs Additional funding 2030 - €1.4m pa €2.2m pa €2.4m pa plus additional rail covering salaries, 2050 – €3.6m pa access charges for freight maintenance and fuel costs To cover both infrastructure (2030) (2030) and operations costs NPV of the different options This analysis was done for each of the options considered (NPV over 30 years) Claremorris to Athenry (Entire WRC) Tuam to Athenry (Phase 2) Claremorris to Tuam (Phase 3) €0.00 Benefits Benefits -€50.00 to costs to costs Benefits -€100.00 to costs =0.25 =0.07 -€150.00 =0.21 -€135.98 -€200.00 -€161.04 -€250.00 -€300.00 -€286.06 -€350.00 Findings None of the options generate a positive return on investment with all three having a benefit to cost ratio of less than 1. 1 Western Rail Corridor: Financial and Economic Appraisal Ernst & Young Tel: + 353 1 475 0555 Business Advisory Fax: + 353 1 475 0599 Services ey.com Harcourt Centre Harcourt Street Dublin 2 D02 YA40 Ireland Reliance Restricted Iarnród Eireann 25 June 2020 Amiens St North Dock Dublin Western Rail Corridor: Financial and economic appraisal Dear Iarnród Eireann, In accordance with the terms of the engagement letter dated April 2019, we have assisted you in delivering a financial and economic appraisal of the proposed reopening of phases 2 and 3 of the Western Rail Corridor. This report sets out our findings. Limitations of Scope We have not, except to such extent as you requested and we agreed in writing, sought to verify the accuracy of the data, information and explanations provided by yourselves, and you are solely responsible for this data, information and explanations. We have therefore relied on the information provided by you to be accurate and complete in all material respects. The report has been provided to you for the above Purpose only and should not be used or relied upon for any other purpose, nor should it be disclosed to, or discussed with, any other party without our prior consent in writing. Use and distribution of this report This report is prepared for the purpose set out in the Agreement and may only be used and disclosed, quoted or referred to on the basis set out therein. Ernst & Young only accepts responsibility to the addressees of this letter on the basis of the Agreement and assumes no responsibility whatsoever in respect of or arising out of or in connection with the contents of this letter to parties other than yourselves. If other parties choose to rely in any way on the contents of this letter they do so entirely at their own risk. We appreciate the opportunity to have provided EY’s services toIarnród Eireann. Should you have any queries or comments regarding this report or if we may be of any further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us. Yours sincerely EY 2 The Irish firm Ernst & Young is a member practice of Ernst & Young Global Limited. It is authorised by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland to carry on investment business in the Republic of Ireland. Western Rail Corridor: Financial and Economic Appraisal Table of contents Overview ................................................................................................................................ 1 Table of contents .................................................................................................................... 3 Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 5 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 11 1.1 Background and requirement .................................................................................. 11 1.2 Structure of this report ........................................................................................... 12 2. Strategic case ............................................................................................................. 14 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Economic context ................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Business context .................................................................................................... 20 2.4 Policy context ........................................................................................................ 21 2.5 Western Rail Corridor objectives .............................................................................. 24 2.6 Scope of the appraisal ............................................................................................ 25 2.7 Options under consideration ................................................................................... 27 2.8 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 27 3. Public consultation...................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 29 3.2 Approach .............................................................................................................. 29 3.3 Key themes ........................................................................................................... 31 3.4 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 32 4. Demand assessment ................................................................................................... 34 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 34 4.2 Approach .............................................................................................................. 34 4.3 Modelling approach ................................................................................................ 36 4.4 Model Parameters .................................................................................................. 36 4.5 Scheduling scenarios .............................................................................................. 37 4.6 Estimated demand ................................................................................................. 38 4.7 Benchmarking ....................................................................................................... 45 4.8 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 46 5. Capital and operating costs ......................................................................................... 47 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 47 5.2 Approach .............................................................................................................. 47 5.3 Capital costs .......................................................................................................... 47 5.4 Operating costs ..................................................................................................... 50 5.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 51 6. Financial assessment .................................................................................................. 53 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 53 6.2 Approach .............................................................................................................. 53 6.3 Revenues .............................................................................................................. 54 6.4 Exchequer position................................................................................................. 56 6.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 57 7. Wider economic benefits ............................................................................................. 58 7.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 58 7.2 Approach .............................................................................................................. 58 7.3 Monetised benefits ................................................................................................. 58 7.4 Monetised costs ..................................................................................................... 62 7.5 Non-monetised benefits .........................................................................................
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