A Change Is Going to Come: A Complex Systems Approach to the Emergence of Social Complexity on Cyprus by Laura Anne Swantek A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Approved November 2017 by the Graduate Supervisory Committee: C. Michael Barton, Chair Katherine Spielmann Nancy Serwint ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY December 2017 ©2017 Laura Anne Swantek All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT This dissertation explores how practices and interactions of actors at different scales structure social networks and lead to the emergence of social complexity in middle range societies. To investigate this process, I apply a complex adaptive systems approach and a methodology that combines network science with analytical tools from economics to the three sub-periods of the Prehistoric Bronze Age (The Philia Phase, PreBA 1 and PreBA 2) on Cyprus, a transformational period marked by social and economic changes evident in the material record. Using proxy data representative of three kinds of social interactions or facets of social complexity, the control of labor, participation in trade networks, and access to resources, at three scales, the community, region and whole island, my analysis demonstrates the variability in and non-linear trajectory for the emergence of social complexity in middle range society. The results of this research indicate that complexity emerges at different scales, and times in different places, and only in some facets of complexity. Cycles of emergence are apparent within the sub- periods of the PreBA, but a linear trajectory of increasing social complexity is not evident through the period. Further, this research challenges the long-held notion that Cyprus' involvement in the international metal trade lead to the emergence of complexity. Instead, I argue based on the results presented here, that the emergence of complexity is heavily influenced by endogenous processes, particularly the social interactions that limited participation in an on-island exchange system that flourished on the island during the Philia Phase, disintegrated along the North Coast during the PreBA 1 and was rebuilt across the island by the end of the period. Thus, the variation seen in the emergence of social complexity on Cyprus during the PreBA occurred as the result of a bottom-up i process in which the complex and unequal interactions and relationships between social actors structured and restructured social networks across scales differently over time and space. These results speak more broadly about the variability of middle range societies and the varying conditions under which social complexity can emerge and add to our understanding of this phenomenon. ii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my mother, Rose Marie Swantek. She didn’t get to see it completed, but always knew I could do it. “Anything a boy can do, you can do better!” iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This is undoubtedly the most important part of this dissertation. If studying social networks, and the ties that bind people together has taught me anything, it is that nothing is done without the help of an army of people who are willing to stand by you when it counts. I’m sure there will be people I mistakenly leave off, but that is wholly the result of a mushy brain at the end of writing a dissertation and not a reflection of the gratitude I feel for all the help I was given. This dissertation and my growth as an archaeologist would never have happened without my wonderful mentor and advisor, Michael Barton. Michael, I can never express to you how grateful I am for all you have done for me. A very special thank you to the other members of my committee, Kate Spielmann and Nancy Serwint. Kate, your support and encouragement kept me in graduate school and have made me a better researcher. Nancy, I am so grateful for your encouragement, kindness and compassion and for being my link to Cyprus at ASU. Kostalena Michelaki-Schwartz, though not formally on my committee, you taught me how to write a proposal, and helped and supported me through the very real struggle. There are so many other people who have helped me along with my education. Of course, I will always be grateful to Stuart Swiny who introduced me to Cyprus and made me an archaeologist. The Cyprus American Archaeological Research Unit (CAARI) has been my home away from home for many years. A very special thank you to Vathoulla Moustoukki, Photoulla Christodoulou, Katerina Mavromichalou and Andrew McCarthey for always making us all feel at home and for helping me with my iv research. I will always be grateful to Tom Davis, a former director of CAARI, who kept me working on Cyprus. I am fortunate to have friends all over the world who help me through the tough times and celebrate with me during the happy ones. Frank Garrod, your generosity, kindness and support do not go unnoticed. Thank you for all you do for me, which is too numerous to name. Andrea Torvinen, I’m so grateful for your friendship and know that graduate school would have been much harder without you! Lucas Grimsley, thank you for always seeing in me more than I see in myself. Bill Weir, thank you for your 17 years of friendship; I guess we are moving on now to the Swantek and Weir excavations. Walter Crist, we did it! I wouldn’t be who I am today if I didn’t have a strong and loving family. Thank you to my parents, who pushed their three girls to get an education! I will always be indebted to my sisters who taught me that I had something important to say, and pushed me forward when I started to stumble. This dissertation is for all of them, but especially for my nephew Rowan and niece Penelope: you guys are smart enough and strong enough to change the world; don’t ever let anyone tell you differently. Finally, David Taylor I love you with all of my heart. You stood by me through it all and held me up when I couldn’t hold myself up. But most importantly, you loved me. Thank you doesn’t begin to cover how I feel, but it will have to be where I start. This research was made possible by a grant from the National Science Foundation and the support of the Department of Antiquities, Cyprus. Both organizations have given generously with money and time; I am most grateful for their support. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………….xii LIST OF FIGURES...........................................................................................................xiv CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................1 Complex Systems, Social Complexity and Middle Range Society………..2 Cyprus during the Prehistoric Bronze Age and Innovative Methodologies……………………………………………………………..4 Social Complexity…Again..........................................................................7 2 A COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH TO THE EMERGENCE OF SOCIAL COMPLEXITY……………………………………………………………………9 Social Complexity and Archaeology……………………………………....9 Complex Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems...………………...….12 Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems…………………………….12 Application of CAS Concepts for Human Social Systems……………….15 Benefits of a CAS Perspective……………………………………………17 Application of Complexity Theory: Networks…………………………...18 Random Networks………………………………………………………..20 Small World Networks…………………………………………………...21 Scale Free Networks……………………………………………………...24 Complex Systems, Network Theory and Archaeology…………………...26 Criticism of Complex Systems Science......................................................31 vi CHAPTER Page Conclusion................................................................................................. 33 3 CYPRUS DURING THE PREHISTORIC BRONZE AGE...............................35 Formation and Geology of Cyprus.............................................................35 Flora and Fauna of Cyprus: Implications for Human Society....................38 The Prehistoric Bronze Age on Cyprus......................................................40 The Philia Phase (2400/2350-2250 cal BC)................................................41 The PreBA 1 (2250-2000 cal BC)...............................................................48 The PreBA 2 (2000-1750/1700 cal BC)......................................................52 Hypotheses for the Emergence of Social Complexity on Cyprus...............54 Hypothesis 1 Test Implications..................................................................57 Hypothesis 2 Test Implications..................................................................60 Hypothesis 3 Test Implications..................................................................62 Hypothesis 4 Test Implications..................................................................65 Conclusion................................................................................................. 65 4 METHODS AND DATA....................................................................................67 Introduction................................................................................................67 Scaling and Network Configurations.........................................................68 Example of Scaling Procedures..................................................................71 Identification of Network...........................................................................73 Scale of Analysis........................................................................................74 PreBA Datasets..........................................................................................76