The revolution strikes back A special report on Iran l July 21st 2007
Artist CREDIT if required Republication, copying or redistribution by any means is expressly prohibited without the prior written permission of The Economist The Economist July 21st 2007 A special report on Iran 1
The revolution strikes back Also in this section
Men of principle Iran’s neoconservatives and their white coup . Page 3
Bombs away A suitable case for pre-emption? Page 6
The big squeeze But sanctions are not yet painful enough to change Iran’s nuclear policy. Page 8
Only engage The case for a grand bargain . Page 11
The verdict of Qom Theory and practice. Page 12
Khomeini’s children An uncompromising Iran and an uncomprehending America may be stumbling to war, says Peter David Not happy, but probably not eager to become Westernised either. Page 14 T IS Friday prayers in Tehran. Several to its present policy Iran will not have ne- Iblocks around the university and Pales- gotiations with it. Now, before the main tine and Revolution Squares have been sermon, comes the warm-up. A speaker closed to tra c, as they are every week at denounces Islam’s foes. Shame on you Is- this time. Throughout the morning lines of rael, down with Israel, the seated throng soldiers in khaki and Revolutionary bellows in response, sts pumping in un- Guards in green have been ling into a vast ison. Death to America. hangar. Knots of civilians stroll up in the The prayer leader takes his place be- sun. From within, loudspeakers squawk hind a lectern. In one hand he holds a gun, sermons and bursts of martial music. to represent the sword of Islam. He then re- This week happens also to be the 25th cites in a tremulous voice the lamentation anniversary of the liberation of Khorram- for the Shias’ rst-century martyr, Imam shahr, a bloody Iranian victory during the Ali. At this the assembled worshippers cra- eight-year imposed war against Iraq. All dle their heads and sob, shoulders heaving week footage of the ghting has been with sudden grief. The preacher then takes broadcast on television, even lling the a sip of water, signalling that this morn- half-time gap in the European football cup ing’s main political message which will nal between AC Milan and Liverpool be preached at similar meetings in all of (which soccer-mad Iranians watched Iran’s cities is about to be delivered. avidly). The Iran-Iraq war cost Iran hun- Today’s theme is a forthcoming meet- dreds of thousands of lives, helping to con- ing in Baghdad between Iranian and Acknowledgments Besides those mentioned in the text, the author would like solidate the very revolution Saddam Hus- American diplomats, the rst formal direct to thank the following for their time, help and insights: Ak- sein had foolishly attacked. Posters of the contact after decades during which nei- bar Alami, Mohammad Atriafar, Patrick Clawson, Richard martyrs still adorn the streets of Tehran. ther country has been willing to talk to the Dalton, Anoushiravan Ehteshami, Mehran Ghassemi, Bijan Khajehpour, Afshin Molavi, Karim Sadjapour, Barbara Sla- Inside the hangar tens of thousands of other. The preacher is at pains to explain vin and Hamid-Reza Taraqqi. men (the women are screened out of sight) that Iran is not showing weakness. That sit in rows on prayer rugs. At the front un- carnivorous wolf is not of the type to enter A list of sources is at der a podium is much of the country’s tur- negotiations, he says of America. Amer- www.economist.com/specialreports baned political leadership. Also present is ica is only after securing its own hege- General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the com- mony. Isn’t America the axis of evil? mander of the Revolutionary Guards, Wasn’t refusing to talk to America a princi- An audio interview with the author is at which wrested control of the war from ple of the blessed Ayatollah Khomeini? www.economist.com/audio what had been left of the shah’s army and There will be no departing from principle, has exercised growing in uence in Iran he says. All that has happened is that Iraq’s A country brie ng on Iran is at ever since. Under the podium a green ban- government has asked for help. And all www.economist.com/iran ner proclaims: So long as America sticks Iran will do is insist that as Iraq’s occupiers1 2 A special report on Iran The Economist July 21st 2007
2 the Americans are responsible for the CD on which they can look up who is dent Ahmadinejad would be more dan- mayhem there. We can with most cer- thought to be investing what in Iran. Why? gerous still. Would he consider using tacti- tainty announce today that the United Because, says Danielle Pletka, an AEI vice- cal nuclear weapons against Iran? You States has become the obvious manifesta- president, people need to understand that can’t rule out anything. John McCain re- tion of the axis of evil in the region, he de- between (a) doing nothing about Iran and cently broke into song, intoning bomb- claims. The seated throng roars its assent. (c) dropping a bomb on it is a third pos- bomb-bomb bomb-bomb Iran to the sibility, (b), of in icting economic pain un- tune of a Beach Boys song. The audience in America til the mullahs change their ways. This Alongside the work of the think-tanks Tehran’s Friday prayers are broadcast all week too Dick Cheney pipes up from the and the warnings and ditties of the politi- over Iran and around the world. The ery deck of USS John Stennis, one of the addi- cians comes a drumbeat of alarming slogans of the worshippers reinforce the tional aircraft carriers America has sent to newspaper articles. In the Wall Street Jour- scary fanaticism outsiders have come to the Persian Gulf. The vice-president says nal, Norman Podhoretz, a hero of the neo- associate with the Islamic Republic since America will stand with our friends to conservatives, concludes in an op-ed Ayatollah Khomeini’s revolution more stop Iran getting nuclear weapons and piece: The plain and brutal truth is that if than a quarter of a century ago. And no- dominating this region . Iran is to be prevented from developing a where in the world do Tehran’s morning Some say that Mr Cheney is the last nuclear arsenal, there is no alternative to prayers have a more attentive audience hawk standing in the Bush administration. the actual use of military force any more than in the capital of the United States. But anxiety about Iran’s nuclear inten- than there was an alternative to force if For all its problems in Iraq, America is tions stretches right across American poli- Hitler was to be stopped in 1938. also xated on Iran. In 2005 George Bush tics. Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of promised that he would stop the world’s state, claims that America faces no greater The audience in Iran most dangerous men from getting their challenge from a single country than from Is that really where things stand with hands on the world’s most dangerous Iran . And most of the presidential candi- Iran a new Hitler and a new 1938? Look weapons . That same year a brash former dates for 2008 are talking equally tough. again at Tehran’s Friday prayers. One thing mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadine- Hillary Clinton favours opening a dip- a visitor notices at once is how little con- jad, won a surprise victory in Iran’s presi- lomatic track with Iran. John Edwards nection this stage-managed event has with dential elections. Since then he has done supports a non-aggression pact . Barack the everyday life of the bustling metropo- his level best to look like one of the world’s Obama says it would be a profound mis- lis around it. Even the audience, squatting most dangerous men. take to start a war. But neither Mrs Clinton in serried ranks beyond the dignitaries, President Ahmadinejad took over from nor Mr Edwards nor Mr Obama rules out looks untypical. a middle-aged cleric, Muhammad Kha- force if Iran persists with its nuclear plans. Iran is a young country (see chart): two tami. As president, the mild, bespectacled For Rudy Giuliani, the Republican out of three people are below the age of 30. Mr Khatami had pushed for liberal re- front-runner, a military strike would be On the streets of a uent north Tehran, forms at home and talked reassuringly to very dangerous , but nuclear arms in the young people dress in the latest fashions the outside world about Iran’s desire for a control of an irrational person like Presi- even if the jeans-clad women are obliged dialogue of civilisations . The new presi- by law to wear the Islamic headscarf (the dent, a former Revolutionary Guard and a hijab). The audience at prayers, however, is Holocaust-denying demagogue, does not A young country 1 older: shabbily dressed men well into their do reassurance. Since his election Iran has Population, m 40s, regime stalwarts who have trekked de ed the UN Security Council’s orders to uphill from the poor southern suburbs. 80 stop enriching uranium, threatened Which is the true Iran the consumer- 70 repeatedly to make Israel disappear and oriented young, bored by the slogans of a 60 declared war on Iran’s internal reformists. long-ago revolution and impatient to 50 Switch to a typical week in Washing- move on? Or the regime faithful chorusing 40 ton, DC, just before those Friday prayers. the familiar slogans at Friday prayers? 30 The Washington Institute for Near East Pol- *† It is tantalisingly hard to know. With icy is holding a symposium on Iran’s un- 1975 80 85 90 95 2000 07 71m people and a multitude of languages acceptable bomb . Robert Kimmit, the and ethnicities, Iran is a di cult place to deputy treasury secretary, tells delegates Age, m, 2000 read. Although it has elements of democ- how America is tightening sanctions on MALE FEMALE racy, including an elected president and Iran. From Jerusalem by video Shimon 543210 012345 parliament, the state is not ultimately con- 90-94 Peres, Israel’s elder statesman (and now 85-89 trolled by elected institutions. And even 80-84 president), says that if Iran develops nu- 75-79 the elected bit of the system is a backstage 70-74 clear weapons, they may fall into the 65-69 game of personalities and factions, not a 60-64 55-59 hands of terrorists. A British diplomat ar- 50-54 transparent process rooted in political par- 45-49 gues that Iran’s nuclear programme threat- 40-44 ties. Press freedom is limited, almost no se- 35-39 ens irreparable damage to the Nuclear 30-34 rious independent opinion polling is al- 25-29 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). 20-24 lowed, and many o cial economic 15-19 Also in this typical week another think- 10-14 statistics appear simply to be made up. All 5-9 tank, the American Enterprise Institute 0-4 this makes the regime’s inner workings (AEI), unveils a database listing foreign in- Sources: World Bank; Economist elusive. Outsiders can only follow the vestments in Iran. Journalists are given a Intelligence Unit; US Census Bureau *Estimated †Forecast trend and make a guess. 7 The Economist July 21st 2007 A special report on Iran 3
Men of principle
Iran’s neoconservatives and their white coup
AST time The Economist visited Iran for a dential elections produced an unexpected crimes punishable by death. Lspecial report, in 2003, the so-called victory for Mr Ahmadinejad, then a little- In recent months the slide back into Tehran spring a period of cautious po- known former mayor of Tehran. authoritarianism has accelerated. Tehran’s litical liberalisation under the presidency The Tehran spring of ten years ago has annual campaign against bad hijab , of the soft-spoken Mr Khatami was draw- now given way to a bleak political winter. when police harass or arrest women who ing to a close. He had won a landslide elec- The new government continues to close show too much hair under their obligatory tion in 1997 and a renewed though smaller down newspapers, silence dissenting headscarves or make themselves up to mandate in 2001. These victories had sig- voices and ban or censor books and web- look sexy, has been unusually severe. A se- nalled that the people of Iran wanted sites. The peaceful demonstrations and ries of high-pro le arrests seems calcu- change: freedom of thought and speech, protests of the Khatami era are no longer lated to intimidate dissenters. Some of political diversity, a more open economy, tolerated: in January security forces at- those arrested have been visiting Ameri- tolerance, the rule of law and a friendlier tacked striking bus drivers in Tehran and can citizens with dual citizenship. (One, stance towards the outside world. But as arrested hundreds of them. In March po- Haleh Esfandiari, from the Woodrow Wil- president, Mr Khatami had limited powers lice beat hundreds of men and women son Centre in Washington, is the wife of to deliver what they wanted. who had assembled to commemorate In- Shaul Bakhash, a noted scholar and for- That was because the constitution ternational Women’s Day. mer writer for The Economist. She was de- drawn up under Ayatollah Khomeini tained and imprisoned while visiting her adopted a doctrine known as velayat-e fa- The consequences of dissent mother in Tehran.) More shocking inside qih, in which an Islamic jurist sits as su- According to Human Rights Watch, an in- the country was the arrest in April of Hos- preme leader at the apex of politics. And ternational lobbying group, detainees are sein Mousavian, a former Iranian ambas- over the course of the Khatami presidency routinely tortured in clandestine prisons sador to Germany and former nuclear ne- the unelected part of the structure, di- operated by the judiciary, the information gotiator, on suspicion of espionage. The rected by the present supreme leader, for- ministry and the Revolutionary Guards. arrest of a regime insider on such an out- mer president Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, The rate of executions appears to have landish charge sent a shudder through systematically throttled most of the speeded up, too. Iran now executes more Iran’s political establishment. Mr Mousa- changes Mr Khatami and his fellow re- people than any other country except vian is close to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, formers proposed. China often without giving defendants a a former president and Mr Ahmadinejad’s Dozens of newspapers opened during fair trial. Homosexuality is one of the defeated rival in the 2005 election. the Khatami period, only for many to be If you are determined to give Iran the shut down on one pretext or another by bene t of the doubt, one way to interpret the judiciary. Clerics who took advantage these developments is to see them as the of the new atmosphere to question the swing of a political pendulum the sort of doctrine of velayat-e faqih were impris- wobble you might expect in any country oned or otherwise cowed. Even as political making a tful transition to democracy. By debate blossomed, Iran’s security services 2005 Mr Khatami’s reforming presidency cracked down on religious and ethnic mi- had after all run out of steam. Mr Ahmadi- norities. A number of the regime’s critics nejad won a popular election. The people fell victim to murders traced later to the in- seemed once again to want change, but terior ministry. In 1999 police reacted to a change of a di erent kind: economic jus- peaceful demonstration for freer speech tice and redistribution rather than a po- by invading Tehran University, beating litical and cultural opening. and arresting hundreds of students and Mr Ahmadinejad, the austere son of a killing at least one. In the majlis (parlia- blacksmith, ran as an economic populist, ment) much of the president’s reforming adroitly harnessing the conviction of the legislation was vetoed by the Council of mostaza n Iran’s downtrodden that Guardians, a committee of clerics ap- their basic needs had been neglected by pointed by the supreme leader to ensure the political reformers. A big part of his ap- that laws conform with Islamic precepts. peal was his promise to tackle the corrup- By 2004 Mr Khatami’s failure either to tion many voters associated with the older stand up to these assaults on his pro- brand of conservative, such as Mr Rafsan- gramme or to deliver economic progress jani, whom many Iranians believe to be a had led to widespread disillusion. That billionaire as well as a cleric. year, hardliners won a big victory in par- Nonetheless, says the pendulum the- liamentary elections. And in 2005 presi- Dressing to kill a revolution ory, Iranian politics is still an a air of1 4 A special report on Iran The Economist July 21st 2007
2 checks and balances. The new president is in their approach and oppose Mr Ahmadi- not invincible. His erratic economic poli- nejad’s brand of what many outsiders cies especially when combined with the have come to call neoconservatism . impact of sanctions will prevent him Could the older-style conservatives from satisfying the expectations he has such as Mr Rafsanjani and the reformists aroused. By the time of the next majlis elec- band together and win next time? That is tions in 2008, or the presidential ones in what the pendulum theorists hope. This 2009, the reformists will have regrouped being Iran, however, plenty of evidence and the pendulum may swing back. can also be found to prove that the pendu- In Iran, it is said, you can always dredge lum theory is wrong. up plenty of evidence to support any the- ory you care to believe in. So it is with the A parallel universe theory of the pendulum. Mr Ahmadinejad One of the theory’s defects is its underly- has been in o ce for less than two years, ing assumption that power swings back but that has been time enough to produce and forth with election results. In Iran it plenty of evidence that his power is lim- doesn’t quite. In 1997 Mr Khatami won a ited and his tenancy may be short. Despite very handsome democratic mandate for the endorsement of the supreme leader reform, but by winning the presidency he (Ayatollah Khamenei has called him Iran’s did not win a free hand to govern. best president since the revolution), Mr Iran, remember, is at best a quasi-de- Ahmadinejad: rekindling the old re Ahmadinejad has faced vehement opposi- mocracy: in parallel with the elected sys- tion, not least from the majlis itself. tem exists another system that is un- to describe what Iran is experiencing as a From the start, the majlis resisted many elected. Its elements include the armed white (ie, bloodless) military coup. This of his choices for cabinet jobs. It also re- forces (especially the Revolutionary did not start with President Ahmadinejad, jected many of his spending plans. More Guards), the Council of Guardians, the ju- though as a war veteran and former Revo- than 30 majlis members have signed a pe- diciary, the senior conservative clerics and lutionary Guard commander he is typical tition that would summon the president to a vast administrative machine that reports of the class and generation behind it. It has appear in parliament to explain his alleged directly to the supreme leader. By and large been developing quietly ever since the policy failings. A year ago 50 prominent this unelected system is made up of strong men of principle began to fear that their economists sent him an open letter attack- believers in the original ideology of the revolution would not survive the en- ing his economic policies. Last month they revolution, or at least people who have a croachment of Western ideas, consumer sent another, with additional signatories. strong vested interest in it. A common self- habits, satellite television and the rise of a Mr Ahmadinejad’s mounting bellicos- description of these people is that they are generation that had no direct memory of ity on the international stage his threats osoulgara, or principle-oriented . either revolution or war. against Israel, questioning of the Holo- The principle-oriented custodians of This is not the sort of coup in which the caust and nuclear de ance has also run the revolution did not wait until the elec- armed forces have to make an overt grab into robust internal criticism. This seemed tion of Mr Ahmadinejad before taking ac- for power, because the supreme leader is to reach a crescendo last December when tion against Mr Khatami’s reforms, which part of the conspiracy. The fear, rather, is voters handed him a serious indirect re- they interpreted as a potentially lethal that with all the state institutions now in bu . In municipal elections and elections threat to its core values. With the conniv- conservative hands the unelected centres for the Assembly of Experts (the body that ance of the supreme leader, they simply of power are coalescing behind a single elects and supervises the supreme leader), used their executive power and a compli- hard line and taking over all the top jobs. most of the candidates Mr Ahmadinejad ant judiciary to override the wishes of the And in the name of principle this group supported were defeated. legislature and the voters. (one majlis member calls it the power in Does this mean that the hardliners as a By these means President Khatami was the shadow ) has no qualms about bully- whole are in trouble? Not necessarily. In deprived of his power long before he was ing parliament or suborning the judiciary. Iran’s faction-based politics, the divisions deprived of his o ce. Nor did the men of Mr Ahmadinejad is part of this group, between political blocks are not clear-cut. principle think it safe to leave the choice of but its survival does not depend on his. In- Factions tend to coalesce before elections his successor to Iran’s voters. The election deed, many of the conservatives who sup- and then break apart once they have got took place only after legions of candidates ported his presidency are beginning to cast their man in. At the same time the defeated had been disquali ed by the Council of around for a more moderate, cooler- factions seek to form coalitions in the hope Guardians. By way of insurance there was headed replacement (one possibility is of reversing their defeat next time round. also judicious ddling on election day: re- Mohamed Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Right now the hardliners who rallied formists complain that the Revolutionary Tehran). If necessary they will sacri ce around Mr Ahmadinejad in 2005 are less Guards and their associated Basij militia of him to protect themselves, says Isa Sa- concerned to maintain unity, whereas the perhaps a million young volunteers were harkhiz, the outspoken managing editor of main opposition groupings are feeling drafted in to intimidate voters and stu Aftab, a reformist monthly. So strong is the their way towards an alliance. ballot boxes. military-clerical nexus under the supreme In the majlis these consist of a rump of Take all this into account, and what is leader that Mr Saharkhiz dismisses the Khatami-style reformists and a larger happening in Iranian politics begins to possibility of the reformists winning re- block of people who travel under the con- look more sinister than the swing of a pen- election. He says the Council of Guardians servative banner but who are pragmatic dulum. Some opposition politicians prefer will simply disqualify their candidates. 1 The Economist July 21st 2007 A special report on Iran 5
2 A principal exhibit in the theory of the many Iranians living in America, believe Tehran and restricting the movements of white coup is the relentless increase in the that the regime is so unpopular that it can those who remain. The country is being in uence of the armed forces, especially indeed be reformed or even removed from put on a war footing , says one. the elite Revolutionary Guards. The within if only the opposition receives a It is a familiar pattern. Writing from ex- Guards bared their teeth early in the re- bit more help. To that end the American ile, Akbar Ganji, one of Iran’s best-known form period. Within a year of Mr Kha- government has earmarked scores of mil- dissidents, says the hardliners have consis- tami’s election as president their com- lions of dollars to help Iranian civil soci- tently cited American policies towards mander, General Rahim Safavi, was ety and pro-democracy groups. Iran as an excuse to crack down on internal calling the reformers hypocrites . In one But reformers inside the country dare foes. Politicians with close ties to the mili- notorious intervention he suggested that not touch this money. Ebrahim Yazdi, tary establishment have taken control of those reformers who (in his view) threat- leader of the Freedom Movement, which the Iranian government and are trying to ened the revolution should be beheaded. supported the revolution but is now a cou- manage the cultural and political arena in Now that one of their own is president, rageous voice for democracy, says that the style of a police state, he says in the the in uence of the Guards has such programmes merely give the authori- Boston Review. These policies are, in turn, broadened. A large cohort of former ties an excuse to intensify the repression . aggravating hostilities and allowing the Guards sits in the majlis. The Guards main- The government cites these American Bush administration to justify its belliger- tain their own intelligence agency and se- ence. Thus the vicious cycle continues. cret prisons. Men with close links to the A similar mechanism operates in the Guards control principal media outlets nuclear debate. Shahram Chubin, director such as the state broadcaster as well as the of studies at the Geneva Centre for Secu- powerful Ministry for Islamic Guidance rity Policy, argues in a recent book that al- and Culture. Three years ago the Guards though Iran resumed the shah’s nuclear showed their strength by deciding on their programme for security reasons during the own authority to close down the capital’s war with Iraq, its motivation now has at new Imam Khomeini International Air- least as much to do with internal politics. port. They claimed that a decision to allow As the revolution started to falter in the a Turkish consortium to operate the termi- 1990s, he says, the nuclear option o ered a nal had posed a threat to national security; way to rally nationalist opinion and le- but many Iranians think the real reason gitimate the regime . was that a company close to the Guards So it has proved. Mr Ahmadinejad and had lost its bid for the tender. his coterie have succeeded brilliantly in It may therefore be no coincidence that portraying the regime’s quest for nuclear in the past two years the Guards’ commer- technology (it is careful never to speak of cial interests have prospered. Their engi- nuclear weapons) as a matter of national neering arm, known as Ghorb, has been pride. Most Iranians do not see why a great granted juicy slices of big state projects, in- nation such as theirs should be denied a cluding the building of gas pipelines and a technology others are allowed to have. new section of the Tehran metro. This has wrong-footed the pragmatists, Sayeed Laylaz, a former government of- such as Ayatollah Rafsanjani, who sup- cial and now a private economist in Teh- ports the nuclear programme but would ran, says simply that the Guards are Iran’s Khamenei: supremely paranoid work harder to prevent it from antagonis- nomenklatura a new social class formed ing the world and isolating Iran. by domination of the economy . Within funds as proof that the United States is For Iran’s men of principle it may be ten months of Mr Ahmadinejad’s election, plotting its overthrow. Fearing (or claim- that antagonising the world and isolating he reckons, the value of civil contracts ing to fear) that America is fomenting a Iran are very much part of the point. Her- awarded to the Guards, many of them velvet revolution, it has used them to jus- midas Bavand, a Tehran-based academic, without going to competitive tender, had tify its arrest of foreign visitors. says that just as revolutionaries in Russia trebled from $4 billion to $12 billion. On In recent months almost all contacts be- and China took fright when their ideas top of this, the Guards are also thought to tween civil society and the West have stopped resonating with the people, those be in charge of Iran’s nuclear-weapons fallen under real or manufactured suspi- in Iran think that their survival depends on programme, a political and technological cion. In May American would-be partici- making Iranians feel surrounded, isolated responsibility conferring huge in uence pants in an economic conference organ- and beset by foes. A particular group, he and prestige within the ruling system. ised by the Ravand Institute, Tehran’s rst says, wants to make the revolution perma- independent economic think-tank, set up nent in order to retain their control of the A plot a day keeps opposition away by Iran’s former ambassador to London, power structure and for this it is helpful What makes Iran’s future especially hard were denied visas. In June Iranians who if they can point to enemies everywhere. to predict right now is its testy relationship had the temerity to attend a reception at The more that outsiders meddle, the with the outside world, and particularly the British embassy to mark the queen’s deeper the regime digs in. Better to let the with the United States. That is because the birthday were harassed on their way in country nd its own way towards democ- direction Iran takes will depend not only and out by police and rent-a-mob demon- racy, the reformers say. But can the world on its own choices but also on what the strators. The regime is cutting down the a ord to leave Iran to its own devices? If world does to it. Many Americans, and number of foreign journalists based in they are nuclear devices, perhaps not. 7 6 A special report on Iran The Economist July 21st 2007
Bombs away
A suitable case for pre-emption?
MERICA and many other countries are making rapid progress. In Iran, the also argues that under the letter of the law Aconvinced that Iran is trying to build agency’s attempts to monitor nuclear ac- it was not required to disclose the exis- nuclear weapons. But Iran denies this, and tivities have been hampered by years of tence of these facilities until uranium en- after the intelligence bungles in Iraq such deception. And Iran’s credibility su ered a richment actually began which, it says, it claims need to be examined with care. The massive blow in 2002 when a dissident intended to do. Iranians remind the world that their sol- group, perhaps tipped o by Western In 2003, embarrassed by the discovery diers were victims of Saddam’s poison-gas spies, revealed that the country had built of its secret facilities, Iran agreed to imple- attacks during the Iran-Iraq war, and that two nuclear facilities in secret without in- ment the additional protocol of the they never retaliated in kind. Ayatollah forming the IAEA. One of these, in Arak, IAEA, making its facilities available for Khamenei, the supreme leader, has gone was a heavy-water reactor, just the thing fuller inspection. After negotiations with so far as to issue a fatwa (religious decree) for making plutonium, which is one way Britain, France and Germany it agreed to declaring the possession or use of WMD in to fuel an atomic bomb. The other, at Na- suspend uranium enrichment. But it con- general, and nuclear weapons in particu- tanz, was a facility for enriching uranium, tinued to insist on its right to resume it, and lar, to be illegal under Islamic law. which is the other way of doing it. in August 2005, the month of Mr Ahmadi- Furthermore, Iran’s leaders point out It is true, as Iran says, that the centri- nejad’s inauguration, it did so even that unlike existing nuclear-weapons fuges at Natanz can also make the less en- though the three European governments states in their neighbourhood, such as Pak- riched fuel that a nuclear reactor would had o ered it economic and civilian-nu- istan, India and Israel, Iran has signed the need for producing electricity. But since clear help in exchange for stopping perma- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It Iran does not yet have any such reactors nently. In June 2006 the incentives on o er has therefore submitted itself to inspec- (other than the one the Russians have built for nuclear compliance were both tions by the International Atomic Energy for it at Bushehr, which comes with Rus- broadened (all ve permanent members Agency (IAEA), the treaty’s watchdog. sian-supplied fuel), why the rush to en- of the Security Council, and Germany, en- When asked why a country over owing rich? Why try to keep both Arak and Na- dorsed them) and sweetened. Con- with oil and gas should want nuclear en- tanz secret? And why has Iran apparently doleezza Rice said that if Iran accepted, ergy, Iran answers that its oil revenues will co-operated with both North Korea and America would drop its long-standing re- one day diminish and that in the mean- A.Q. Khan, Pakistan’s notorious nuclear- fusal to negotiate directly with Iran and time nuclear energy at home would free weapons smuggler? open talks on a wide range of subjects. more petrol for export. Besides, say the Ira- Iran’s answer to these questions is that From America’s perspective this was a nians, America and other Western coun- it was forced to keep these nuclear activi- big concession. And yet, for one reason or tries were happy to help the shah establish ties secret because America was intent on another, Iran did not bite. And in the past a nuclear industry before the revolution. blocking its civil nuclear programme, even year its readiness to pay a growing price for Why should what America deemed to though having such a programme was its its determination to press on with enrich- make economic sense at that time be inalienable right under the NPT. Iran ment and so master the entire nuclear-fuel thought absurd now? cycle has inevitably added to suspicion of It should also be noted in Iran’s defence its intentions. Part of that price has been that the nuclear agency has as yet found no losing the diplomatic protection that Rus- conclusive evidence that Iran is running a sia and China had previously given it in nuclear-weapons programme. In a report the Security Council. In July 2006 the to the IAEA’s governors last March, Mo- council ordered Iran to suspend enrich- hammed ElBaradei, its director-general, ment. Its refusal resulted in two further said only that until Iran gave the agency resolutions in December 2006 and March more information about its nuclear activi- 2007 imposing modest sanctions, with a ties some of which it kept secret for many third now in preparation. And yet the cen- years his agency would not be able to trifuges spin de antly on. Little wonder provide assurance regarding the exclu- that the working assumption in many cap- sively peaceful nature of all of Iran’s nu- itals is that Iran wants the bomb. clear activities . In short, the IAEA has no If that assumption is correct, how soon rm evidence that Iran is trying to make a might it get one? Mr Ahmadinejad keeps bomb, but it has plenty of suspicions and claiming that Iran has already passed the cannot give it a clean bill of health. stage of no return in its attempts to master The IAEA, however, is a cautious orga- enrichment, but continues to deny that nisation with a mixed record. In the 1980s Iran wants the bomb. We have broken it failed to detect Iraq’s nuclear-weapons through to a new stage and it is too late to programme at a time when it was in fact push us back, he said in June. Most out-1 The Economist July 21st 2007 A special report on Iran 7
2 side experts, however, are sceptical about how much progress Iran has made. A common estimate is that in order to produce enough ssile material for a basic device, Iran would have to run an array of some 3,000 centrifuges at high speed for more than a year. Mr ElBaradei told a meeting of the IAEA last month that Iran already had between 1,700 and 2,000 cen- trifuges running, and predicted that this number could rise to 3,000 by the end of July. But the amount of uranium hexa uo- ride the gas put into the machines for en- richment has been relatively small, suggesting to some analysts, including the IAEA, that Iran is not yet con dent of its ability to spin them at full speed. One respected expert, David Albright, president of America’s Institute for Sci- Enrichment please ence and International Security, reckons Iran would be lucky to be able to enrich exibility than the Palestinians them- the Zionist regime . A week later the enough uranium for a bomb by 2009 and selves. It denounced Yasser Arafat’s es- Speaker of the majlis, Gholam-Ali Had- that to complete all the other steps neces- pousal of a two-state solution as a betrayal dad-Adel, said during a visit to Kuwait that sary to make a usable weapon could take and it continues to arm and train groups Mr Ahmadinejad’s comments did not another year or more. Israel says that if such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hiz- mean that Iran intended to attack Israel, Iran’s programme went very smoothly, it bullah that say they want to destroy Israel. only that the Zionist entity was on a could have a bomb by 2009. Mr ElBaradei, During the reformist period, President natural course of disintegration . who makes no secret of his belief that it Khatami softened Iran’s stand, implying For all the ambiguity, such talk helps to would be crazy to launch a pre-emptive that it might respect whatever solution the sow fear in Israel and corresponding de- attack on Iran, says an Iranian bomb, if Palestinians accepted, but Mr Ahmadine- light in Arab countries, where Mr Ahmadi- that is what Iran wants, is between three jad, in numerous Holocaust-denying nejad may now be more popular than he and eight years away. speeches calling for or predicting Israel’s is at home. To that extent it has been a ra- eradication, has returned Iran noisily to tional instrument of foreign policy. Such Reasons for wanting the bomb the true faith. talk may also stem from a rational domes- So what if Iran got the bomb? Wouldn’t its These pronouncements have led com- tic calculation: hurling dire threats against only purpose be to deter? Iran does after mentators in the West to ask whether Israel in the Khomeini manner helps rekin- all have a history of being bullied and in- Iran’s president is a new Hitler with geno- dle the revolutionary re that was allowed vaded. In the 19th century Britain and Rus- cidal designs. But a close look shows them to cool under the reformists. sia played their great game on its terri- to be ambiguous. It is not clear, for exam- As to whether Mr Ahmadinejad is a tory. Britain and America engineered the ple, whether he really doubts that the Ho- new Hitler, one point to note is that he is coup that unseated an elected prime min- locaust occurred or merely why such an neither Iran’s dictator nor the master of its ister, Muhammad Mossadegh, in 1953. event should have been allowed to justify nuclear programme, which comes under After Iraq’s invasion in 1980 the United Na- Israel’s creation. In the blogosphere trans- the supervision of the supreme leader. tions did precious little to help Iran. And in lators hold lively debates about whether That may not be so very reassuring. It im- 2002 Iran found itself listed as part of he really did call for Israel to be wiped o plies that even if Mr Ahmadinejad were to George Bush’s axis of evil , at a time the map or just removed from the pages shut up, or lose his job, the nuclear danger when America had just sent one army into of time , a phrase which some people will remain. neighbouring Afghanistan and prepared seem to think sounds less erce. In the Since Israel does not admit to having to send another into neighbouring Iraq. mind of Mr Ahmadinejad, are Israel and nuclear weapons, its detailed thinking on All this plus loose talk in Washington, its people to disappear in some violent nuclear matters is rarely ventilated in pub- DC, about regime change in Iran may event? Or is it merely the Zionist regime lic. But most of those Israeli experts willing have convinced the country’s leaders that that is to come to an end perhaps peace- to talk rate the chances of an Iranian nu- Iran needs a bomb simply to make poten- fully, after the Palestinian refugees have re- clear attack as low. Despite Mr Ahmadine- tial attackers think twice. But if Iran has turned and decided by referendum? jad, most consider Iran to be a rational reason to want a bomb, others have bigger If Israel is to disappear, will Iran be the state actor susceptible to deterrence. reasons to fear it. Israel is foremost of agent of its destruction? It is hard to say: Knowing that Israel already possesses a these. Whereas Israel had good relations from time to time, Mr Ahmadinejad and very large nuclear arsenal, Iran would with the shah, Ayatollah Khomeini re- other o cials have said explicitly that Iran have to be ready to sacri ce millions of its garded the creation of the Jewish state as poses no threat to Israel. Last month the own people to destroy the Jewish state, un- an unforgivable sin and said that all Mus- president said that it was the Lebanese and less it was sure that in a rst strike it could lims had a duty to reverse it. the Palestinians who had pressed the destroy Israel’s ability to strike back. That On Israel, Iran has indeed shown less countdown button for the destruction of would be hard, given that Israel is reported1 8 A special report on Iran The Economist July 21st 2007
2 to have put nuclear weapons at sea on sub- an even darker nightmare. scratch, it could probably rebuild it much marines, and has built sophisticated anti- Added together, these considerations faster with the experience it has gleaned. missile defences expressly to protect its might still tempt an Israeli government to More worrying still is the possibility second-strike power. Furthermore, if Iran try to knock out Iran’s nuclear facilities be- that Iran has secret nuclear sites outsiders did obtain nuclear weapons, America fore it can nish building a bomb. The Is- do not know about: the existence of Arak might be willing to o er Israel (and other raelis have worked for years to obtain the and Natanz, remember, was not discov- allies in the region) additional reassurance weapons for such a strike, spending bil- ered until fairly recently. That could render by saying for whatever such a promise lions to procure long-range variants of the an attack on the known ones pointless. can be worth that it would regard a nu- F15 and F16 ghter-bomber, for example. And Mr Kam is surely right that an Israeli clear attack on its ally as an attack on itself. On the other hand, senior Israelis know strike might unite Iran’s people behind the that this would be fraught with danger. regime and its nuclear aspirations. The calculus of destruction Iran’s nuclear targets are much further Another alternative for Israel might be Nonetheless, Ehud Olmert, its prime min- from Israel than was Iraq’s Osiraq reactor, to attack Iran in order to start a sequence of ister, has said that Israel cannot live with a which Israeli aircraft destroyed in 1981. events in which America eventually joins nuclear-armed Iran.Whatever its policy- Most are more than 1,200km (750 miles) the fray. The Americans, naturally, would makers think, its people have been away, and Israel’s aircraft would have to nd the military job much easier than Is- spooked by Mr Ahmadinejad. And the y even farther to avoid Jordanian or Iraqi rael. The Americans have a motive, too: sheer disparity in size between the coun- airspace. That, according to a study by not fear of annihilation, but fear that a nu- tries (Iran’s population is more than ten Ephraim Kam of Israel’s Institute for Na- clear-armed Iran would knock a hole in times Israel’s, and its land area 75 times as tional Security Studies, would require re- what is left of the non-proliferation regime big) leads some Israelis to question fuelling on both the outward and return and challenge American interests in the whether stable deterrence is possible be- ights, adding to the danger of intercep- energy-rich Middle East. After Iraq, how- tween them. Israelis are haunted by a re- tion. Osiraq, moreover, was a single target. ever, no American president could doubt mark of Ayatollah Rafsanjani’s in 2001, Since there would be many this time, the that such an attack would deepen Muslim musing that a single nuclear weapon attacking force would have to be large. hatred of America. And Iran is not without could obliterate Israel, whereas Israel And to cause serious damage, the aircraft means of retaliation, even against the su- could only damage the world of Islam. might have to attack more than once. perpower. It could strike America’s al- Could ordinary life in Israel continue Even a successful strike would not be ready hard-pressed forces in Iraq, direct under such a threat? Even if Iran did not the end of the story. For as the IAEA’s Mr terrorism at America’s friends or disrupt use its bomb, might not possession of it ElBaradei keeps saying, you can’t bomb tanker tra c through the Persian Gulf, so embolden it to attack Israel by conven- knowledge. Iran would be likely not only causing mayhem in the energy markets. tional means, either directly or by using its to retaliate with its long-range rockets but That is why American and Israeli politi- allies in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian also to begin at once to rebuild its nuclear cians alike, while refusing to take the threat territories? A further danger is that once capability, just as Iraq did with extra ur- of military action o the table , are prob- Iran went nuclear, others in the region, gency after Israel’s destruction of Osiraq. ably being completely honest when they such as Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Tur- That might not take long, says Mr Kam: insist that force is a last resort and that they key, might feel compelled to follow. Hard Iran has its own nuclear raw material and would prefer to stop Iran by means of di- as it would be for Israel to establish a deter- already possesses much of the relevant plomacy sharpened by economic sanc- rent balance with Iran, a cat’s cradle of knowledge and technology. Having spent tions. But can sanctions do the job, and can Middle Eastern nuclear face-o s would be only three years building Natanz from they do it in time? 7 The big squeeze
But sanctions are not yet painful enough to change Iran’s nuclear policy
PRAY to God that I will never know the world can use to dissuade Iran from its private economists think it is twice as Iabout economics, President Ahma- nuclear ambitions? high and that many of those with jobs dinejad once said when questioned about Since almost all o cial economic statis- have to take second ones to make ends apparent contradictions in his economic tics are suspect, measuring the perfor- meet. Mr Ahmadinejad’s government policy. The Lord appears to have answered mance of the economy is hard. But Afshin claims to have reduced the rate of in a- his prayer. On his watch, the world oil Molavi, an Iran-watcher at the New Amer- tion. In fact it has almost certainly gone up: price has soared from $62 a barrel when he ica Foundation in Washington, DC, calls guesstimates by foreign embassies in Teh- was elected in June 2005 to $72 a barrel in slow economic decline the untold story ran put it as high as 25%. Meanwhile, for- recent weeks. Iran, which has a young, of the Iranian revolution