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Macau Gaming Macau Consumer Discretionary 30 July 2019 Macau Gaming Trading on US-China trade tensions Four themes: 1) visa policy support, 2) GBA development, 3) operator promotions with SOEs, and 4) Chinese gamers’ preference for Macau GGR for May (+1.8% YoY) and June (+5.9% YoY) moved into positive Andrew Chung, CFA territory; we expect growth to accelerate in 2H19 (852) 2773 8529 Maintain positive sector view; stock preference: Sands China, Galaxy [email protected] Entertainment, Melco Resorts, MGM China, SJM and Wynn Macau Terry Ng (852) 2773 8530 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 129 Macau Consumer Discretionary 30 July 2019 Macau Gaming Trading on US-China trade tensions Four themes: 1) visa policy support, 2) GBA development, 3) operator promotions with SOEs, and 4) Chinese gamers’ preference for Macau GGR for May (+1.8% YoY) and June (+5.9% YoY) moved into positive Andrew Chung, CFA territory; we expect growth to accelerate in 2H19 (852) 2773 8529 Maintain positive sector view; stock preference: Sands China, Galaxy [email protected] Entertainment, Melco Resorts, MGM China, SJM and Wynn Macau Terry Ng (852) 2773 8530 [email protected] What's new: We see 4 major investment themes emerging for the Macau Key stock calls Gaming Sector amidst ongoing US-China tensions: 1) extended easing of New Prev. domestic travel visa policies, 2) Greater Bay Area (GBA) development in Sands China (1928 HK) Rating Buy Buy improving immigration checkpoint procedures and logistics between Macau Target 50.10 45.60 and GBA cities, 3) continuous collaboration between SOEs and Macau Upside p 27.3% gaming operators, and 4) more Chinese gaming patrons potentially Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) preferring Macau over US gaming destinations. We believe these themes Rating Buy Buy have supported Macau’s robust Mainland Chinese visitation growth YTD Target 67.20 61.40 (1H19 +23% YoY), while GGR growth for both May (+1.8% YoY) and June Upside p 21.6% (+5.9% YoY) turned positive. If visitation growth continues, factoring in the Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) Rating Buy Outperform above themes, we expect it to be the catalyst for GGR growth in 2H19. Target 29.10 24.90 Upside p 21.5% What's the impact: Since July 2018, when trade tensions between the US MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) and China began, the Chinese government has implemented a number of Rating Buy Hold visa policies aimed at expediting visa approvals and cutting the cost of Target 16.68 16.68 visas for travel to/from Macau. Official estimates suggest 65m Mainland Upside p 20.7% residents will benefit from these new policies. Also, on 18 February 2019, SJM Holdings (880 HK) Rating Outperform Hold China released its development plan for the GBA, laying out initiatives for Target 10.00 8.80 accessibility improvement, infrastructure connectivity, and overall Upside p 11.4% integration of Macau into the GBA. Meanwhile, since 4Q18, the Macau Source: Daiwa forecasts subsidiaries of China SOEs and Macau gaming operators (see p.19) have stepped up their joint promotions. Interestingly, travel from China to the US fell by 5.7% YoY for 2018, marking the first decline on a YoY basis in 15 years. Las Vegas Baccarat GGR fell by 17.9% between 3Q18 and 1Q19, signalling a potential shift in gaming patrons’ destination preference. What we recommend: We expect Mainland Chinese visitations to continue to rise, benefiting all 6 operators. Our pecking order is: Sands (1928 HK, HKD39.35, Buy [1]), TP: HKD45.6 to HKD50.1; Galaxy (27 HK, HKD55.25, Buy [1]), TP: HKD61.4 to HKD67.2; Melco (MLCO US, USD23.96), upgraded to Buy (1) from Outperform (2), TP: USD24.9 to USD29.1; MGM (2282 HK, HKD13.82) upgraded to Buy (1) from Hold (3), TP: HKD16.68; SJM (880 HK, HKD8.98) upgraded to Outperform (2) from Hold (3), TP: HKD8.8 to HKD10.0; and Wynn (1128 HK, HKD19.16) upgraded to Outperform (2) from Hold (3), TP: HKD18.2 to HKD20.4. Key sector downside risks include: 1) slowing growth in visitations, 2) a deteriorating macro environment in China, 3) rapid CNY depreciation, and 4) a slowdown in GBA development. How we differ: We forecast GGR growth using our proprietary fundamental-based 3G3S Model. Furthermore, we see China-US trade tension affecting Macau GGR as Mainland Chinese gamblers shift from the US to Macau, rather than shifting from US to Chinese operators. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 129 Macau Gaming: 30 July 2019 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg Galaxy Entertainment Group 27 HK 55.25 Buy Buy 67.20 61.40 9.4% 3.404 3.414 (0.3%) 3.825 3.988 (4.1%) Melco Resorts & Entertainment MLCO US 23.96 Buy Outperform 29.10 24.90 16.9% 0.980 0.950 3.2% 1.270 1.206 5.3% MGM China Holdings 2282 HK 13.82 Buy Hold 16.68 16.68 0.0% 0.692 0.705 (1.8%) 0.911 0.996 (8.5%) Sands China 1928 HK 39.35 Buy Buy 50.10 45.60 9.9% 0.299 0.298 0.3% 0.356 0.355 0.4% SJM Holdings 880 HK 8.98 Outperform Hold 10.00 8.80 13.6% 0.415 0.420 (1.1%) 0.519 0.514 1.0% Wynn Macau 1128 HK 19.16 Outperform Hold 20.40 18.20 12.1% 1.135 1.182 (3.9%) 1.280 1.338 (4.3%) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Macau Gaming: market share by GGR Macau Gaming: adjusted property EBITDA of main operators (HKDm) 100% 80,000 70,000 80% 60,000 60% 50,000 40,000 40% 30,000 20,000 20% 10,000 0% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E Sands Galaxy Melco SJM MGM Wynn Sands Galaxy Melco MGM SJM Wynn Source: Companies, Daiwa forecasts Source: Companies, Daiwa forecasts Macau Gaming: day trippers vs. overnight visitors as a % of Macau Gaming: Macau hotel inventory and occupancy rate total Mainland China visitations 80% (%) 40,000 100 70% 35,000 60% 90 30,000 50% 25,000 80 40% 20,000 30% 15,000 70 20% 10,000 60 10% 5,000 0% 0 50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Same-day visitors Overnight visitors Macau Hotel Inventory (unit) (LHS) Macau Hotel Occupancy Rate (RHS) Source: DSEC Source: DSEC Macau Gaming: number of gaming tables and slot machines Macau Gaming: overnight visitors’ length of stay in Macau – overall vs. Mainland China (days) 18,000 2.4 16,000 2.3 14,000 2.2 12,000 10,000 2.1 8,000 2.0 6,000 1.9 4,000 2,000 1.8 0 1.7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 No. of Tables No. of Slot machines Overall Mainland China Source: DSEC Source: DSEC 2 Macau Gaming: 30 July 2019 Table of contents Four investment themes amid US-China tensions ................................................ 4 How visa policy loosening maps into US-China trade talk progress ................... 6 How development of the GBA will drive growth in visitations from Mainland Chinese ................................................................................................... 9 Targeting the mass market: joint promotions between China SOEs and Macau operators ....................................................................................................18 Change in Chinese gaming patrons’ preference between the US and Macau due to trade tensions ................................................................................25 Update on the gaming concession transition .......................................................28 Making sense of everything: Daiwa’s 3G3S Model ...............................................30 The 3G3S assessment chart ...................................................................................31 Our revised forecast for mass market GGR using our 3G3S model ...................32 Our revised forecast for VIP market GGR using our 3G3S model ......................34 2019 EBITDA forecast and EBITDA trend ..............................................................36 Our coverage at a glance ........................................................................................38 Appendix 1 ...............................................................................................................45 Company Section Sands China .................................................................................................................... 47 Galaxy Entertainment Group............................................................................................ 61 Melco Resorts & Entertainment ....................................................................................... 75 MGM China Holdings ....................................................................................................... 89 SJM Holdings ................................................................................................................ 101 Wynn Macau .................................................................................................................. 113 3 Macau Gaming: 30 July 2019 Four investment themes amid US-China tensions The US-China trade conflict has been one of the most talked-about topics in the global markets in 2019. The back-and-forth threats made by the US and swift retaliation by China have caused significant disruption to global markets. As a result, investors may be wondering whether there are still investment opportunities out there? We believe there are, and see the Macau Gaming sector in a good position to benefit from the ongoing US-China trade
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