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Property Destruction, Human Losses and Economic Paralysis: Impact Flood in

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RESEARCH ARTICLE

Copyright © 2017 American Scientific Publishers Advanced Science Letters All rights reserved Vol. 23,10803-10805, 2017 Printed in the United States of America

PROPERTY DESTRUCTION, HUMAN LOSSES AND ECONOMIC PARALYSIS: IMPACT FLOOD IN KELANTAN

Zikri Muhamad, Bayu Taufiq Possumah, and Jaharudin Padli

School of Social and Economic Development, University Malaysia Terengganu, 21300 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia.

This study attempts to determine the factors of flooding in Kelantan's, especially in areas near the , Galas River and Lebir River. By using the OLS estimator on the primary data in 2014, a total of 400 questionnaires were distributed among heads of household, and owner of business premises in the district of , , Tanah Merah, and . The result shows that income per capita, number of households, distance from the river and willingness to pay can reduce a flood risk. These findings are useful to the policy maker to propose the solution to minimize the flood risk, particularly in area that exposed to disaster..

Keywords: Flood, human losses, Impact Flood, Kelantan

caused by continuous rain or river water overflowing onto the 1. Introduction shore or both4. To preview the paper results, household income Generally, Kelantan has a series of large flood history in plays little role in explaining which people experienced a flood. 2004, 2010 and 2012. However, in December 2014 a flood But community with a higher willingness to pay will suffer disaster has hit eight districts in Kelantan which Kota Bharu, fewer losses from the impact of floods. Ordinary least squares Pasir Mas, Tumpat, , Gua Musang, , Tanah (OLS) estimate indicates that the total numbers of household Merah, and Pasir Puteh. The impact of the disaster estimated are positively correlated with total number of losses in Kelantan. 124,966 residents or 35,894 families have been affected. The whole of 2589 houses stuck or destroyed. 2. Literature Review It is estimated that the costs of damage for an annual flood, Flood disasters are undoubted happen due to the a 10-year flood, and a 40-year flood are USD 0.98 million, unpredictably weather, but also happen due of the mankind. USD 5.87 million and USD 14.34 million respectively. As a Nowadays, human activities that do occur have led to various result, flood management can be costly for government rescue types of natural disasters, including floods. Other factors such and flood relief operation as well as rehabilitation of public as deforestation and reclamation are also among the main works and utilities. Therefore, this study is conducted for causes of flooding. However, there are a number of socio- reducing the flood risk as well as to investigate the factors that economic factors that contribute to the causes of these floods, influence the potential of flood disaster and to propose the such as education, number of household, income, and distance strategies as a solution to preventing a flood. of a house from the river, insurance, and Cost of Risk (CR). According to the report of the Asian Disaster Reduction What makes us worried more about this disaster is people did Center (ADRC, 2015)1, disaster in Malaysia generally consists not concern and take a serious action regarding this problem of flood, landslide, forest fire and haze2. Flooding is one of the while actually they are the main causes for the problem. phenomena that are classified as disasters caused by unusual or Natural disasters are cannot be denied, prevented or extreme weather conditions and follow by days of heavy rain. predicted but the potential of disasters can be minimized. The impact of the disaster could be categorized into two, Recently Asia countries have experienced an increasing namely, the direct and indirect effects. An increase in the phenomenon of a flood5. As point out by the Schumacher and frequency of disasters can increase the amount of damages and Strobl (2008)6, economic development is negatively related to losses to property and emotional disorders3. Generally, floods economic losses. An increase in wealth will reduce the economic losses. These conditions are supported by the ______Skidmore and Toya (2007)7, a natural disaster can be reduced as Email: [email protected] economically developed. Empirical evidence showed that

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Adv. Sci. Lett. 23,10803-10805, 2017 RESEARCH ARTICLE

population that has higher income is experienced smaller comprising of Dabong, and Tanah Merah, damage. Meanwhile, Noy (2008)8 showed those countries that while the lower area consisting of the districts of Manek Urai have higher per capita income are better able to withstand the (new and old). In this case, a total of 400 questionnaire forms initial natural disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into were distributed and asked either in person to the head of the macro-economy. Furthermore, a country with a higher household and business premises owners in the disaster area. literacy rate, better institutions, a higher degree of openness to However, only 386 questionnaires have returned completely. trade and higher levels of government spending are also The selection of the three areas based on the suffered of severe capable to prevent and reduce the volume of damage. destruction of property compared to other areas such as Pasir On the other side, an increase in income will reduce the Puteh. In this case, the total destruction of the floods was used potential flood since the population is more prepared9. as independent variables and indicators to the flood disaster Meanwhile, as point out by the Lee and Jung (2014)10, low- which covers the level of destruction of houses, premises, plant, income population is affected because of they are unable to and equipment. While the level of education, the number of provide better location because of a high cost of land. In this households, income, a home with rivers, the insurance Cost and case, low- income population is more exposed to disaster since the Cost of Risk (CR) to reduce the risk of flooding as an their house is close to a river. In other words, a distance of the independent variable. the insurance Cost and the Cost of Risk house to the river has also played a vital role in determining (CR) to reduce the risk of flooding is used as dummy variables flood risk. in the model. In addition, educations also played a crucial factor in influencing the total damage11. As show by them, people with 3.2. Methods better education is more knowledgeable tend to be more aware, In order to identify the cause of the flood disaster in alert and prepared for any natural disaster event. Ahead, Kelantan a regression test, "Ordinary Least Square (OLS) was educated people more exposed with all the alarming situation applied. The model is used: coming and they were taught on how to prevent and overcome the problems such as natural disaster. Flood = f(TEDU, THH, INC, DHR, INS, CR) Apart from that, the population also is categories as (1) factors determine flood. As a study from Padli et al. (2013) While regression model 2 is the result of the transformation of expected the result of population and population density to have the functions of the model 1: a positive impact on a natural disaster12. The study also relates about a population with the urbanization. Overcrowding in any lnFloodi = β0 + β1lnTEDUi + β2lnTHHi+ β3lnINCi+ β4lnDHRi+ place will increase the pace of development in the area and thus β5INSi + β6CRi+ ɛi (2) cause congestion to that place because of lack space for carrying capacity. Where i…..n, ɛ, Flood, refer to the time, error term, the flood Meanwhile, Kundzewicz (2002) and Dawson et al. (2011), level in surveys with total destruction respectively, point out that insurance also plays a vital role to influence a TEDU = education level flood risk13 14. According to them, insurance can be used as a THH = total of household useful instrument to recover losses and damage despite it INC = total of income cannot be used as prevention tools. Future more, insurance are DHR = distance between homes with river capable of reducing a financial obstacle after the disaster INS = willingness to buy an insurance period15. As showed by the Zhai and Suzuki (2008)16 and CR = households' Cost of Risk (CR) for reducing the risk Veronesi et al. (2014)17, people are willing to pay in order to of flooding prevent, protect, and reduce the disaster risk including flooding. The independent variables of this study were selected However, Abbas et al. (2015) argue that CR for flood protection based on literature review, which found to be significant highly depends on the age of the head of a family, land determinants disaster. Variable income is expected to give two ownership and types of income18. ways sign relationship, where it will be either positive or In current research such by Cheol-Hee Son et.al, (2015) negative. It depends on one country whether developing or found that the intervention effects of structural and non- developed country. Next for education variable, most of the structural measures were statistically significant from 1958 to time education will have a negative relationship with flood 2013 (a period of 55 years) and that while the former were disaster because educated people will take more action in a way ineffective at mitigating flood damages, the latter were to prevent flooding problem. Similar the insurance Cost and the successful in doing so. Based on their findings, policy, they Cost of Risk (CR), the possibilities of variable to have negative suggest that for structural measures, the government should relationship are very high since an increase in the insurance manage its existing facilities, recover ecosystems of damaged Cost and the Cost of Risk (CR) and damage protection will rivers, and devise mitigation measures for urban areas. For non- reduce the total damage through better drainage system and structural measures, the government should enhance its flood coverage. The other variables, namely number household are forecasting capacity, revise laws related to flood control and also expected to have a two-way sign, which is a negative or prevention, and update and rationalize land-use plans19 positive relationship, and last but not least, distance from a river to the house. This variable somehow will have a positive 3. Methodology expected sign because the closer one house to the river, will 3.1. Data and Study Area lead to flood happen. This study was conducted using primary data for the year 2014 which comprises of three areas, namely the upper, middle 4. Results and downstream of Kelantan. The upper area consisting of the 4.1. Determinant of Disaster District of Kota Bharu and Pasir Mas, the central region The results showed an average more than 45 percent of the

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RESEARCH ARTICLE

population in the flood area is composed of the elderly and [2] Linnekamp, F., Koedam, A., and Baud, I. S. A., Household women. Generally, people in the low areas are vulnerable to vulnerability to climate change: examining perceptions of flooding. The villages in flood area have experienced the households of flood risks in Georgetown and Paramaribo. damages to houses, agricultural land, and household appliances. Habitat International, 35, (2011) 447-456. [3] Balkema, A.A., Rotterdam & Brookefield, Hydrology and Therefore, the research was carried out in order to reduce Water Management of Deltaic Areas. Netherland: Center for disaster risk. Based on Table 1, the results revealed that the total Civil Engineering Research and Codes, (1993) number of households had great positive relationships in [4] Dutta D, Herath S, Trend of floods in Asia and flood risk influencing the amount of destruction. This study is supported management with integrated river basin approach. In: by Padli et al. (2013), where an increase in population density Proceeding of 2nd Asian Pacific association of hydrology will lead to traffic congestion due to lack of space to and water resources and conference, (2004) 55–63. accommodate the population12. [5] Schumacher, I. and Strobl, E. (2008). Economic Meanwhile, positive relationships are also shown with a Development and Losses due to Natural Disaster: The role of variable home to the river where increasingly close a home Risk. (2008) [8] Skidmore, M. and Toya, H., Economic development and the higher hazard risk as indicated by past research10. This happens impact of natural disasters. Economics Letters, 94, (2007) when the occurrence of overflowing water around the river 20-25. banks due to heavy rainfall in downstream. The results also [9] Noy, I., The macroeconomic consequences of disasters. clearly showed an increase in income has a significant Journal of development Economics,, 88(2), (2008) 221-231. relationship in reducing disaster effects8. This is because an [10] Bam H.N. Razafindrabe, KadaRyohei, Arima M, Inoue S, increase in income stimulates the residents to do preparations Analyzing flood risk and related impacts to urban such as building dikes and many more. communities in central Vietnam. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob In terms of CR, the results showed an increase in the Change (2014) 19:177–198 willingness to pay of the community also has negative [11] Lee D, Jung J, the growth of low-income population in floodplains: A case study of Austin, TX. KSCE Journal of relationships between reducing the amount of destruction. This civil engeneering,18 (2), (2014), 683-693. is because the Cost of Risk (CR) will increase the amount of [12] Panic M, Jelena Kovacevic Majkic, Miljanovic D, Miletic R, funds which held by the Government to provide a drainage Importance of Natural Disaster Education-Case Study of The system for reducing disaster risk. However, the education and Earthquake Near The City of Kraljevo. Journal of the insurance haven't explained in this model. Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, 63 (1) , (2013) 75-88. [13] Padli J., Habibullah M. S., and Baharom A. H., Determinants 5. Discussion and Conclusion of Flood Fatalities: Evidence from a Panel Data of 79 This study aims to determine the causes of the occurrence countries. Pertanika Journal Social Sciences and Humanities, of destruction in Kelantan. Some variables have been identified 21(s), (2013) 81-98 [14] Kundzewicz Z. W., Non-structural Flood Protection and and used in studies such as level of education, the number of Sustainability. Water International, 27(1), (2002) 3-13. households, income, a home with river, insurance and CR. By [15] Dawson R. J., Ball T., Werritty J., Hall J. W., and Roche N., using the primary data in 2014, the results presented that the Global Environmental Change, 21(2), (2011) 628-646. total number of households directly affected in flood risk. This [16] Zhai G, and Suzuki T., Public willingness to pay for is because increasing the number of households will increase environmental management, risk reduction and economic congestion particularly in areas at risk. Similarly, a home with a development: Evidence from Tianjin, China. China river, the increase will raise the total destruction, especially Economic Review, 19, (2008) 551-556. when the river overflows around the effects of heavy rainfall in [17] Veronesi M., Chawla F., Maurer M., and Lienert J., Climate downstream of the river. Meanwhile, the variable of income change and the willingness to pay to reduce ecological and health risks from wastewater flooding in urban centers and revealed that increasing income influenced the improvement in the environment. Ecological Economics, 98, (2014) 1-10. preparedness to face the disaster. In addition, the society's [18] Abbas A., Amjath-Babu T. S., Kachele H., and Muller K., willingness to pay was also able to reduce the potential for Nonstructural flood risk mitigation under developing country disaster. This is because the improvement in willingness to pay conditions: an analysis on the determinants of willingness to will increase the amount of funds needed by the Government in pay for flood insurance in rural Pakistan. Nat Hazards, 75, order to maintain for the purpose to protect, prevent and reduce (2015) 2119-2135. the potential destruction. However, the[19] relationship between the [19] Cheol-Hee Son, et.al. The Effects of Mitigation Measures on education variable and insurance were not explained in this Flood Damage Prevention in Korea, Sustainability Journal, model. (2015 In conclusion, in order to reduce the risk of flood action plans and policies should be formed mainly relate to education, income, and insurance. This is because the hurricane showed this factor affects the occurrence of the disaster directly. In addition, the Government should be cautious in planning and developing the areas around major rivers in order to reduce the risk of flood inundation by the river.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Coastal Disaster of Risk Solution (CDRS-UMT)

REFERENCES

[1] Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC,) 2015.

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