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The Electoral Determinants of “Brexit”

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The Electoral Determinants of “Brexit” The Electoral Determinants of “Brexit”: Politics of Fear and Hope Master Thesis Wander Luís Carvalho de Amorim 402059 International Public Management and Policy (IMP) Faculty of Social Sciences Erasmus University Rotterdam 1st reader: Dr M.A. Beukenholdt-Ter Mors 2nd reader: Dr J.L.M. Hakvoort 27/07/2017 Word count (excluding appendices and references): 23,058 PREFACE “Live as if you were to die tomorrow, Learn as if you were to live forever” Desiderius Erasmus i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This August I complete four years since I put myself in a plane, left my country, Brazil, and headed to adult life in the absolute unknown. My destination was Rotterdam: for me, in fact, it became the gateway to Europe. A Europe that has relentlessly instilled me with intense challenges, discoveries, experiences, emotions and learning. That’s what I was looking for, after all. The completion of my MSc in International Public Management & Public Policy has always been within the key objectives of my masterplan – it was not, however, the main one. Following the teachings of Desiderius Erasmus, the main objective of my journey has always been, above all, to live and to learn; and what is life but the best teacher? From Rotterdam then I’ve got to build a life that now spreads all over this continent. Lives, loves, tastes, faces... Europe has become so ingrained in my footprint I can only feel I’ve been successful in those objectives I set out to achieve. In that sense, Erasmus Universiteit, where it all began, has also become my “main port of knowledge”: the knowledge cycle, though, however rich, is of course not yet fully closed, and that’s why I present you this master thesis. My life has spread all over Europe and, in fact, also to the British islands, where I now happen to live. Are these islands Europe? That is a question that has been unsettlingly, increasingly asked along these four years. In effect, the matter of Europe and Britain and their supposed dichotomy has come all unannounced to the very core of my journey: almost three years ago I felt in love with London. I then decided to organise a move from Amsterdam to the city, only to find my plans intimately immersed in the context of the “Brexit” referendum. Months of uncertainty and doubt first hand: will Brexit win? What if? Which, after the result was known, became, in sum (to quote that famous London band): should I stay or should I go? I did go. Once again to the unknown. “Valeu a pena? Tudo vale a pena. Se a alma não é pequena”, said once my favourite poet, Fernando Pessoa. The Brexit topic has eventually become a personal issue – and a passion. This thesis then follows a tradition I started with my BSc thesis of only discussing topics I’m passionate about; of which I’m proud of. In that sense, I’d like to thank first of all my supervisor, Dr M.A. (Tilly) Beukenholdt-Ter Mors, for what ended up being the most invaluable insights I could have had on the adequate format a thesis with the topic chosen should take, as well as for her considerate patience along the last year with the oftentimes irregular path that the writing process of this thesis took. For this I’m immensely grateful. I’d also like to thank Dr J.L.M. Hakvoort for his attentive comments on the first draft of this thesis, which were essential for ii me to deliver a mature final piece of work. In special, I also thank my friend PhD Student at the University of Cambridge Alessandro Ceccarelli, whose help and moral support were of the utmost importance for the completion of this thesis. Last but not least, I dedicate this thesis to my parents, who have more than anyone incessantly followed and supported me through all of this journey, waiting and longing for this day to arrive. Wander Amorim London, 27 July 2017 iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AC Andrew Marr BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BREXIT Britain’s exit (from the European Union) CON Congruence analysis COV Co-variation analysis CPT Causal-process tracing ED Evan Davis EEC European Economic Community EP European Parliament EU European Union G20 Group of Twenty (Major Economies) GREXIT Greece’s exit (from the European Union) IMF International Monetary Fund JC Jeremy Corbyn MEP Member of the European Parliament MP Member of Parliament (of the United Kingdom) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NC Noam Chomsky OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development UK United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) UKIP United Kingdom Independence Party UN United Nations US United States (of America) iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 – 2016 EU referendum ballot paper Figure 2 – Eligibility to vote at British general elections Figure 3 – Ineligibility to vote at British general elections Figure 4 – EU referendum: how the UK voted v LIST OF CONTENT PREFACE ................................................................................................................................................ i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................................................ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. v LIST OF CONTENT ............................................................................................................................... vi 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Research question .................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Relevance ................................................................................................................................ 5 1.3.1. Social relevance............................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2. Scientific relevance .......................................................................................................... 7 1.4. Reading guide .......................................................................................................................... 8 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................................................. 10 2.1. Practical context of the British 2016 EU membership referendum ....................................... 10 2.1.1. The actual options that were posed to voters ................................................................ 10 2.1.2. The actual criteria that identified individuals as voters ................................................ 13 2.1.3. The actual rules on what constituted a majority of voters............................................. 15 2.2. Critical appraisals on the Brexit vote .................................................................................... 17 3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................. 20 3.1. Dependent variable ................................................................................................................ 20 3.2. Independent variables ............................................................................................................ 21 3.2.1. The theory of international relations institutionalism ................................................... 21 3.2.2. The theory of comparative federalism ........................................................................... 27 3.3. Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 31 3.3.1. Hypothesis 1 .................................................................................................................. 31 3.3.2. Hypothesis 2 .................................................................................................................. 32 4. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS ..................................................................................... 33 4.1. Research design ..................................................................................................................... 33 4.2. Research methods .................................................................................................................. 34 4.2.1. Methods of data collection ............................................................................................ 34 4.2.2. Methods of data analysis ............................................................................................... 36 5. EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ............................................................................................................ 38 5.1. Documentation on the electoral determinants of Brexit ........................................................ 38 vi 5.2. Archival records on the electoral determinants of Brexit ...................................................... 42 5.3. Interviews on the electoral determinants of Brexit ................................................................ 43 6. ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................
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