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Asia Super Grid エネルギー転換の時代Renewables in an Interconnected System 24 October 2019 North-East Asia Regional Power Interconnection and Cooperation2018年2月23日 Forum 2019 SEOUL 大林 ミカ Carlos Barria/Reuters 公益財団法人 自然エネルギー財団 Carlos Barria/Reuters Mika Ohbayashi, Renewable Energy Institute Solar PV has risen rapidly in Japan over the last 6 years, but concerns regarding grid integration could raise the possibility of a renewables slow-down Installed solar and wind capacities in Japan in 2010 and 2018. Projection for 2030 according to the government plan and the forecast of RES sector Solar PV has risen rapidly over the last five GW years in Japan (55.5* GW installed capacity 180 end of 2018), making the country one of the most dynamic PV markets outside of China. 135 In Kyushu and Shikoku islands, hourly VRES infeed already covered respectively 84% and 79% of demand in summer (~ over 55% of 90 hourly production) However, the annual share of VRES is still rather low 45 (~7%) , especially low profile of wind (3.8GW), and governmental renewables targets for 2030 (22-24% RES, i.e. ~10% VRES) are significantly below international averages. 0 2010 Gvt plan peak load wind energy solar PV Concerns over whether RES can be efficiently Peak load 2030 integrated into Japan’s power grid without endangering grid stability raised the possibility Source (REI, BP, GWEC, METI), data for 2018 are preliminary, peak load data from 2017, of renewables slow-down in the country. Gvt plans 2030 represents current targets, RES 2030 forecasts from the RES sector (2017) 2 * preliminary data (BP, 2019) Renewables temporarily supply 17.3% (2018) and more than 70% of the electricity demand in 7 out of 10 service areas across Japan ( Findings from data 1st Quarter of 2018) Renewables share in electricity generation may reach 20% soon (Gov’s target: 22-24% by 2030) Cost of solar generation halved in 5 years (2012-2017) TWh Trends of Electricity Generation From Renewable Sources 90 FIT started Retail market Legal liberalization unbundlin g 68 Kyushu area (15 m population): 45 96% of the demand met by renewables 23 9.5% 10.4% 10.0% 10.9% 12.6% 14.3% 14.6% 16.1% 18.0% 0 2010 2011 2012 Hydropower2013 Geothermal2014 Bioenergy2015 Wind2016 Solar 2017 Renewable Share2018 Source：経済産業省資源エネルギー庁「総合エネルギー統計」および「電力調査統計」(参照：2018/07/20)より作成 2018年のみ西暦年、『電力調査統計」（参照：2019/04/26）より自然エネルギー財団作製 BNEF estimates PV would be the cheapest source of new electricity in early 20’s. Onshore wind would be cheaper than CCGT in early 20’s. A new REI study predictsRE cost is declining far below than Gov. assumption JPGov. cost assumption in 2030 Solar Cheapest source REI’s cost assumption in 2030 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.0 int. int. benchmark benchmark Generation cost prediction in Japan by Bloomberg NEF Asia Super Grid - the First Report Interconnectors are usual business in some parts of the world 【Since 1910s】 ・1915 Denmark-Sweden Interconnection ・1920 Interconnection between France, Switzerland and Italia. 【After WWⅡ】 ・1951 UCPTE among 8 countries. (West-Germany, France, Italy and others) ・1963 NORDEL in Northern Europe UFIPTE by France, Spain and Portugal 【Currently】 The region is divided into four synchronous grids, Continental Europe, Nordic, UK, and Baltic, and they are connected asynchronously through direct current transmission, so that electricity trade can be conducted among them. Asia Super Grid - the First Report Lessons learnt from recent cases - cost for interconnectors are eco. feasible Source：ASG Study Group Interim Report, 2017, REI Asia Super Grid - the First Report Korea Electric Power Corporation “Northeast Asia Interconnection Vision” Source: Hwan-Eik Cho, President of Korea Electric Power Corporation, lecture document September 9, 2016) International power grid in Asia in the GEI vision Source: Official website of the international non-profit organization “Global Source：ASG Study Group Interim Report, 2017, REI Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO)” Asia Super Grid - the First Report Asia Super Grid is a concept to maximize RE use in Asian region North East Asian countries are very close compare to European nations; Souya - Sakhaling 43km, Fukuoka-Busan 200km. Big consumption areas - economically very active areas are close to each other. Combining three countries, China, Korea and Japan, the biggest electricity market emerges. Covers 75% of power generation and 77% of electricity consumption in Asia. In Asian region, especially Mongolia, Russia and China, there are vast potential of renewables which can cover whole electricity consumption in the area. Source：ASG Study Group Interim Report, 2017, REI Asia Super Grid - the Second Report Japan-Russia Japan-South Korea Max. Max. Route Length Route Length Depth Depth Sakhalin- 1,255 km 300 m Busan- 627 km 200 m Kashiwazaki Maizuru Sakhalin- 455 km 300 m Busan- 372 km 150 m Ishikari Matsue Sakhalin- 161 km ≤ 100 m Busan- 226 km 120 m Wakkanai Imari Asia Super Grid - the Second Report The Cost estimation of interconnectors between Russia-Japan, Korea-Japan AC/DC Routes Specifications Interconnector Domestic lines Total converter R1: Sakhalin-Kashiwazaki Submarine cables 4 units JPY 430.5 bn. - $ 4.3 bn. R2: Sakhalin-Ishikari- Submarine cables 6 units JPY 196.1 bn. JPY 265.8 bn. $ 4.6 bn. Kashiwazaki R3: Sakhalin-Wakkanai- Onshore; Overhead 6 units JPY 110.0 bn. JPY 463.0 bn. $ 5.7 bn. Ishikari-Kashiwazaki lines R4: Sakhalin-Ishikari- Onshore; 6 units JPY 196.1 bn. JPY 330.3 bn. $ 5.3 bn. Tomakomai-Fukushima Underground cables AC/DC Routes Specifications Interconnector Domestic lines Total converter K1: Busan-Maizuru Submarine cables 4 units JPY 246.5 bn. - $ 2.5 bn. Matsue-Hino to be K2: Busan-Matsue-Hino 4 units JPY 171.8 bn. 30.6 bn. JPY $ 2.0 bn. reinforced K3: Busan-Imari/Oita-Ikata Submarine cables 8 units JPY 129.0 bn. 83.3 bn. JPY $ 2.1 bn. Source：ASG Study Group Second Report, 2018, REI Asia Super Grid - the Second Report 1. Business models for investment recovery and estimated results Based on the preceding studies including the Interim Report and researches in Europe/North America, the investment recovery method of interconnectors is classified into the following four types or combinations of them. Business model Contents Examples 1) Generators/ Interconnector is laid as a part of a power supply project to suppliers Russia - China specific customers or markets from specific generators or Canada - US dedicated line suppliers, and investment is carried out by power sales income. model The construction and maintenance costs of the interconnector Skagerrak 4 2) Regulated grid are regarded as the fully distributed costs (FDC) of the power (Denmark - transmission operators and all consumers in the business area tariff model Norway) will bear the transmission fee for the investment recovery. 3) Transmission The transmission operators sell the right to use the transmission rights sales model line to power generators and/or retail electricity companies. European markets, The transmission operators obtain the congestion charge which North American is calculated as “multiplication of wholesale price difference and 4) Congestion markets (e.g. PJM) actual transmitted electricity amount” as a revenue at the time of charge model market segmentation in the interconnector between consolidated markets. Source：ASG Study Group Second Report, 2018, REI Asia Super Grid - the Second Report 1. Business models for investment recovery and estimated results 1) Generators/suppliers dedicated line model: Japan-South Korea route *Set the electricity generation cost as X Assumptions (JPY/kWh), transmission cost as Y (JPY/ kWh). The total of X + Y (JPY/kWh) would bid into JEPX as FOB price. The investment for Payback period 25 years the construction cost (JPY Z billion) will be O&M ratio 1 - 3% of initial investment cost recovered by the difference between the Supplied power Minimum: 1 GW; Maximum: 2 GW JEPX system price and FOB price. System JEPX price For each year of 2016 and 2017 (every 30 minutes) price data of Japanese connection point in Set value of FOB prices JPY 5-9 /kWh (every 1 yen ) 2016 and 2017 are used as JEPX’s system price data. Table 12: Japan-South Korea route: Estimated results of Generators/suppliers dedicated line model (Unit: IRR%) Set value of FOB prices 5 yen /kWh 6 yen /kWh 7 yen /kWh 8 yen /kWh 9 yen /kWh [K1] Busan-Maizuru (Electricity market: Kansai area; Construction cost: JPY 246.5 billion) 1 GW 4.0% to 13.8% -1.2% to 10.1% -7.8% to 6.6% Max. 3.5% Max. 0.7% 2 GW 15.3% to 29.7% 8.5% to 23.0% 2.4% to 17.3% -3.1% to 12.5% -9.5% to 8.5% [K2] Busan-Matsue-Hino (Electricity market: Chugoku area; Construction cost: JPY 202.4 billion ) 1 GW 6.8% to 17.4% 1.4% to 13.0% -4.5% to 9.2% -13.0% to 5.7% Max. 2.7% 2 GW 19.7% to 36.3% 11.8% to 28.2% 5.1% to 21.5% -0.4% to 15.8% -5.7% to 11.3% *In the red frames, the IRR median value is positive. [K3] Busan-Imari/Oita-Ikata (Electricity market: Kyushu area; Construction cost: JPY 212.3 billion) 1 GW 5.7% to 15.6% 0.3% to 11.5% -5.7% to 7.9% -16.6% to 4.7% Max. 1.7% 2 GW 17.9% to 33.0% 10.4% to 25.5% 4.0% to 19.3% -1.3% to 14.2% -6.9% to 9.9% Source：ASG Study Group Second Report, 2018, REI Asia Super Grid - the Second Report Assumptions 1. Business models for investment Payback period 25 years recovery and estimated results O&M ratio 1 - 3% of initial investment cost 2) Regulated grid tariff model: Set value of grid tariff 0.06 - 0.10 JPY/(every 0.01 JPY) Japan-Russia route Japan’s share of defrayment 50% of interconnector and 100% of lines in Japan Tokyo Electric
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