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Untangling Spirals of Silence in a Presidential Election

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Untangling Spirals of Silence in a Presidential Election UNTANGLING SPIRALS OF SILENCE IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LEO W. JEFFRES, KIMBERLY NEUENDORF, CHERYL CAMPANELLA BRACKEN AND DAVID J. ATKIN5 Noelle-Neumann’s theory about the “spiral of silence” renewed interest in public opinion research when it was introduced in Germany more than 30 years ago. According to the theory—which has enjoyed mixed support — people use the media and personal experience to perceive those opinions that are gaining and those that are losing ground. When people believe that their opinions are in the majority or becoming more popular, they express their convictions openly, outside of their family and circle of friends. If they think their opinions are in the minority, or losing favor, they feel less certain of their position and are less likely to discuss their opinion except with friends. This study builds on the notion that there are multiple spirals of silence, examining potential spirals based on partisanship and gender in a presidential election. In particular, the researchers apply the spiral of silence in an election context, where there is ample media coverage about the topics and issues that are the subject of strong opinions and where there is a greater likelihood that people would encounter their expression in public settings. Results from a regional probability sample indicate that those showing the greatest interest in issues and those closest to their candidates are most likely to express opinions to those with whom they are most likely to disagree, i.e., confrontation rather than silence. One might explain these findings in the context of “multiple spirals of confrontation” rather than “multiple spirals of silence.” Implications of study findings are discussed. Keywords: spiral of silence, opinions, presidential election, Leo W. Jeffres is a professor of communication at Cleveland State University ([email protected]). Kimberly Neuendorf is a professor at Cleveland State. Cheryl Campanella Bracken is an associate professor at Cleveland State. David J. Atkin is professor of communication at the University of Connecticut. Journal of Media Sociology, Vol. 1, Nos. 1/2 (Winter/Spring 2009) 81 Jeffres et al. Untangling Spirals of Silence in a Presidential Election N oelle-Neumann’s theory about the “spiral of silence” renewed interest in public opinion research when it was introduced in Germany more than 30 years ago. According to the theory, people use the media and personal experience to perceive those opinions that are gaining and those that are losing ground. When people believe that their opinions are in the majority or becoming more popular, they express their convictions openly, outside of their family and circle of friends. If they think their opinions are in the minority, or losing favor, they feel less certain of their position and are less likely to discuss their opinion except with 1 friends (see Noelle-Neumann, 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989, 1991; Lang, 1986). Evidence in 2 support of the theory has been mixed, however, varying with the context and topic of opinion under study. For instance, looking at how people expressed their opinions about the verdict of the O.J. Simpson trial, Jeffres, Neuendorf and Atkin (1999) found evidence of racial differences and suggested that there is not one but many potential spirals of silence, based on such identifying attributes as group membership. But more research is needed about people’s assessments of the climate of opinion and what it is about the context that inhibits the expression of unpopular opinions. This study builds on the notion that there are multiple spirals of silence, examining potential spirals based on partisanship and gender in a presidential election. In particular, the researchers apply the spiral of silence in an election context, where there is ample media coverage about the topics and issues that are the subject of strong opinions and where there is a greater likelihood that people would encounter their expression in public settings. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE The spiral of silence has been studied in a variety of contexts and countries, using 3 diverse issues and topics of public opinion. Scholars also have tested major assumptions operating as part of the theory (Glynn, Hayes, & Shanahan, 1997; Noelle-Neumann, 1974; 4 Scheufele & Moy, 2000; Stevenson & Gonzenbach, 1990) and discussed its significance for democratic processes (Entman, 2004; Moscovici, 1991; Sparrow & de Chernatony, 1995; also see Simpson, 1996). Since public opinion evolves through interpersonal communication and activities that occur in public settings, it’s important to examine that context. The pressure to conform, or one’s willingness to speak out, is central to the spiral of silence (Scherer, 1991; Tichenor, 1988). Noelle-Neumann (1984) defines public opinion as “views one can safely express in public.” The conformity hypothesis and the theory in general are dependent upon conditions under which people will speak about controversial 5 issues. Salmon and Kline (1984) note that people in the real world almost always have some support for their position, which would reduce the pressures to conform (also see 6 Gonzenbach, 1992). Price and Allen (1990, p. 373) conclude from their examination of the 82 Journal of Media Sociology, Vol. 1, Nos. 1/2 (Winter/Spring 2009) Anti-Americanism as a Communication Problem? Erik Nisbet and James Shanahan literature that “research findings from recent American studies do not seem to support the 7 claim that a widespread fear of isolation contributes to the silencing of minorities.” When people find themselves in a public setting where opinions are expressed, the spiral of silence theory seems to assume that the “other” initiates the discussion and first expresses one’s opinion, placing “self” in the position of responding with an opinion of his or her own. That often is the case, but certainly not always. Sometimes a topic is raised but positions are not clearly stated at the outset. In this situation, one either must generalize from media reports and personal experience that the “other” person holds the majority or minority 8 opinion. The accuracy of one’s estimate of the general “climate of opinion” also has been 9 questioned. Communication research suggests that people use cues to identify another’s positions on various issues and the likelihood that they will agree or disagree. Among the most important cues would be those associated with unambiguous ascriptive factors (e.g., race, gender), cues associated with achievement (e.g., income and education, which may be ascertained from dress or speech), or affiliation with some group (e.g., membership in a political party or organization, or affiliation with some religion); the last of these three may require verbal cues more than the others. Rather than study the spiral of silence by asking our subjects and respondents to declare whether they would express themselves to an “undifferentiated” other, the present study focuses on multiple contexts. Researchers studying the third person effect have looked at the relationship between “self” and “other,” finding that people who are more dissimilar or socially distant are believed to be affected by the media more than we are; in a parallel fashion, some research has found the spiral of silence to operate when the “other” person is more distant, suggesting that people assume those like us hold the same opinions while those different from us probably hold contrary opinions. Thus, we would expect people to gauge the “climate of opinion” not on the basis of some generalized media reports but on the basis of group cues or individual characteristics that one believes are associated with the opinion issue likely to be expressed. In this scenario, one would find an individual’s behavior manifesting multiple spirals of silence, which vary across different situations. Involvement has been found to be a significant factor when the spiral silence operates. In Salmon and Neuwirth’s (1990) test of an elaborated version of Noelle-Neumann’s model of the spiral of silence, involvement and knowledge directly influenced expression of opinions. Similarly, Shamir (1997) found perceptions of the climate of opinion were related to overt expression of opinion in Israel, but the impact was not consistent and political involvement was most important. Clearly, people who hold a mild or no interest in a particular issue are less likely to bother expressing an opinion in a conversation, one way or the other. There is little at stake. However, if someone is intensely interested or highly involved with the issue, we would expect that to act as a motivating force. The importance of involvement may not have a “linear” relationship with enactment of the spiral of silence. At a moderate level of involvement and interest, we might expect sufficient motivation for Journal of Media Sociology, Vol. 1, Nos. 1/2 (Winter/Spring 2009) 83 Jeffres et al. Untangling Spirals of Silence in a Presidential Election involvement but sufficient inhibition of expression because of the social cues stemming from the situation. At a high level, involvement and interest may motivate the individual to overcome such inhibitions and express contrary views despite social sanctions. Although the spiral of silence has generally been applied to the expression of opinions about public issues in general, election campaigns also have been provided an important context for examining the theory. Glynn and McLeod (1984) found support for the hypothesis that those who see their position as gaining support will be more likely to discuss that position than those who see their position as losing support in a study of the 1980 presidential elections. There also was partial support for individuals seeing support for a candidate more likely expressing a preference for that candidate. In an experiment, Ansolabehere and Iyengar (1994) found that revealing information about poll results led voters to develop more positive views of a candidate but did not affect voting intention.
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