Climate Change and Perceived Agricultural Sustainability in the West Himalaya

1 [X]Position, Vol. XX, No. Y, Month 2017

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PERCEIVED AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY IN THE WEST HIMALAYA

Mackay, Cameron

(Submitted May 2017; Reviewed June 2017; Accepted July 2017)

ABSTRACT A long-term trend of increasing climate change in the West Himalayas has caused regional temperature increase and snowfall decrease. Whilst this has been demonstrated through a wide selection of scientific studies, there is an opportunity for further research detailing the subsequent human impact. Through gathering data of traditional ecological knowledge from remote subsistence communities in the study area of Leh Block in North India, the perceptions of local people relating to the perceived sustainability of agriculture were examined through an interview-based study. Results show that agriculture is believed to be endangered due to water scarcity, irrigation difficulties and a shortening of the growing season due to climate change. Analysis also revealed that the factors of altitude and glacial area within the watershed of each studied village significantly influenced vulnerability to these changes. Villages at lower altitudes on south facing slopes with little glacial area within their watersheds were shown to be the most vulnerable to environmental change. Due to these changes, climate change can now be seen as a push factor influencing migration away from agricultural areas. This study summarises the observed impact of climate change and agricultural sustainability in the West Himalayas and compares this to previous regional and global research relating to climate change and traditional ecological knowledge.

INTRODUCTION due to the accelerated melting of glaciers, which is putting increasing pressure on agricultural systems (Daultrey, Increasing climatic change has caused environmental 2011). To help support these remote communities in conditions to reach unprecedented extremes (Zalasiewiez adapting to climatic changes, Salick and Byg (2007) et al. 2010). Due to a rise in global mean surface o discuss how a global response is needed, for which detailed temperature of 0.85 C between 1880 and 2012, there have accounts of these communities’ perceptions and been widespread and adverse impacts on physical, experiences are highly valued and will allow more biological and human systems (IPCC, 2014). The people appropriate support to be administered. Also, through most adversely affected by these changes are those living communicating such research findings to policy makers in locations of high latitude and altitude, as well as those and the public in countries such as the UK, decisions to act who rely solely on cultivation of the physical landscape for in more globally aware and environmentally sustainable food and livelihood (Tariyal and Bartwal, 2014). This is ways can be influenced (Happer and Philo, 2013; Korte, particularly evident in mountainous regions, such as the 2016). Ladakh region of the Indian Himalayas shown in Figure 1, where people are currently facing severe water shortages B A Umla

Phyang Leh N

Phey Sabu

Shey Stok Nang

Indus River

Large City Small Village Major River 5km

Figure 1 Maps showing settlements in which research was conducted. Map A shows the country of India with Ladakh region Highlighted. Map B shows precise Indus River Basin Field area. Adapted from Patterson (2016) and Google (2016).

Author, Cameron Mackay, Geography, College of Science and Engineering, [email protected] 2

Village Phey Shey Leh Phyang Saboo Stok Nang Umla

Site Floodplain Floodplain South Facing Slope South Facing Slope South Facing Slope North Facing Slope South Facing Slope South Facing Slope

Altitude (m) 1391 3240 3500 3530 3550 3600 3630 3880

Watershed Natural spring Indus River 1.30km2 glaciated 1.95m2 glaciated 0.28km2 glaciated 3.33km2 glaciated No glaciers, seasonal No glaciers, seasonal area, seasonal area, seasonal area, seasonal area, seasonal snowfall snowfall snowfall snowfall snowfall snowfall

Interviews 2 5 19 2 5 5 5 4

Table 1 Village Site Information. Altitude and glaciated area data taken from Google Earth Pro (2016).

The region of Ladakh, being a ‘high altitude desert’ and Rees’ (1962) definition of sustainability as the ability to having a subsistence agriculture system that relies heavily ‘live equitably within the means of nature’ will be on seasonal irrigation sources, is particularly vulnerable to considered. the impacts of climate change (Rizvi, 1999). Climatic o This study had the following research objectives: research has identified a rise in temperature of over 1.6 C in Ladakh since 1901 (Bhutiyani et al., 2007) and a region 1. Identify the extent to which climate change is experienced o wide increase of ~2 C in the West Himalayas between in Block Leh; 1984 and 2008 (Shekhar et al., 2010). This has led to a 14% 2. Establish factors affecting the vulnerability of reduction in Ladakh’s glaciated area (Schmidt and Nüsser, communities in Ladakh to climate change; 2012), a decrease in annual snowfall (Kripalani et al., 3. Establish how successful and sustainable operational 2003) and an increase in the instability of rainfall including mitigation strategies are; severe flash flood events (Thayyen et al., 2013). To gain an 4. Given predicted future temperature increase in Ladakh, understanding of how these climatic changes impact establish how sustainable farming practices are believed to people, the concept of traditional ecological knowledge be; (TEK) can be considered. Defined by Berkes (1993) as 5. Identify to what extent traditional ecological knowledge ‘experience acquired over thousands of years of direct (TEK) relates to scientific knowledge. human contact with the environment’, TEK can add a vital human dimension to physical climate change research and give an in-depth account of how human systems respond to these climatic changes (Harrington, 2015). The current METHODOLOGY body of work detailing human responses to climate change Study Area in Ladakh shows that there are many cases of water scarcity as the water that used to be easily sourced from glacial The Leh Block area of the Indus Valley in the Ladakh meltwater is no longer readily available (Angmo and Region of North India was chosen as the study area for this Mishra, 2009) and farming practices are becoming more project, as is shown in Figure 1. This area provided access difficult to maintain as a result (Pellicardi et al., 2014). to many agricultural settlements as well as the largest city Daultrey and Gergan (2011) note that a technique called in the region, Leh, which acts as a central hub for many of ‘artificial glaciers’ has been implemented in Ladakh the agricultural areas in Ladakh (Rizvi, 1999). Each village whereby meltwater from glaciers is collected in Autumn in studied was situated within its own individual river a series of dams, staggered at different altitudes, frozen catchment, so clear analysis of respective responses over winter, and allowed to melt periodically and produce relating to water availability for each village could be water in Spring. It is suggested by Fisher (2016) that this conducted. The three types of watershed included were method has been effective in extending crop cultivation north facing slope, south facing slope and floodplain and times in Ladkah, but the future of artificial glaciers will eight villages were visited in total to collect data, a depend on the health of the region’s natural glaciers and summary of this can be seen in Table 1. The sampling their meltwater. strategy was to visit 50% of the villages in each type of watershed. Five out of ten south facing slope villages were So far, TEK has mainly been implemented in regions visited, one out of two north facing slope villages and four documenting climate change research in the Arctic and out of eight floodplain villages. Each village was at a North America (Harrington, 2015; Pearce et al., 2015; different altitude ranging from 3190 to 3880 m. There were Sakakibara, 2008) and little focus has been centred on many other differences between villages such as access, mountainous regions. Where it has been used, it has made communication and ethnic background but all villages valuable contributions to local governments and to global studied had a significant reliance on agriculture. academic understanding (Alexander et al., 2011). A gap in research therefore exists that looks at the human impact of climate change and resulting changes to the climate and physical landscapes in mountain regions, particularly the Methods Indian Himalayas. The present study aimed to investigate Fieldwork was conducted in the Leh Block region of this further, whilst testing the feasibility of TEK for this Ladakh between 13th July and 8th August 2016. The main area of research in Ladakh. In considering the research technique used in this study was the structured sustainability of agricultural areas in the present study in open-ended interview which consists of a standardised and relation to physical climatic changes, Wackernagel and comparable series of questions in which participants were

free to construct their own narrative. A total of 47 Temperature increase was shown to cause positive and interviews were conducted in English and Ladakhi with negative impacts. Respondents detailed the positive impact farmers, Indian government officials and local agriculture of an increase in the variety of crops that can now be grown specialists in Block Leh. A translator was used for Ladakhi in Ladakh which has allowed both a greater quantity of interviews. 38 of these interviews were conducted on traditional crops to be grown such as apples and apricots as agricultural sites and these were statistically analysed to well as new crops such as wheat. The negative impacts compare vulnerability to climate change between different significantly related to temperature increase were glacier village watersheds. This methodological approach was loss and snowfall decrease, as shown in Figure 2. developed with particular reference to the work of Byg and Temperature increase was shown to account for 79% of the Salick (2009). increased crop variety responses and it was also shown to account for 20% of water scarcity responses. It was Participants were chosen to provide an illustrative sample suggested by interview respondents that these two issues which gave insight to the viewpoints of people with made cultivating crops particularly challenging, as agricultural awareness. On-site recruitment was used by summarised in the comment: approaching areas where it was hoped individuals with appropriate insights and TEK could be found. Village “… temperature is totally rising which gives us interviews were conducted in research participants’ advantages to sow these vegetables in varieties, but due houses, gardens and social areas in each village. Household to shortage of water, we are not able to … give any good interviews allowed the participant to feel more comfortable agriculture output.” and enabled the interviewer to gain further insights into the cultures and livelihoods being investigated. (Man, Nang Village) All interview data was analysed through coding interview Interviewees also noted significant increases in the transcripts to draw out themes of observations, impacts and instability of rainfall. Known locally as ‘cloudbursts’, mitigations of climate change as well as factors influencing extreme precipitation events causing flash floods have increased in frequency over the last ten years (Theyyen et perceived sustainability. Two statistical analyses were then conducted. X2 analysis with a significance level of α = 0.05 al., 2013). Analysis of data from 2016 Ladakh data analysis was used to test to what level coding themes influenced showed a significant relationship between these cloudburst each other. Regression analysis was also used to test the events and an inability to irrigate fields due to the trends of responses reflecting perspective altitudes, infrastructural damage caused by the floods. This is glaciated area and theme responses of villages. described by an interview respondent: “…everything wash away, the houses are filled with sand, soils and all and many lands become infertile, they lost their fertility … [the fields are] filled with debris, and it RESULTS takes long time to get back the same land.”

Observations and Impacts of Climate Change (Woman, Nang Village) All interview participants noted that climate change was having an impact in Ladakh. One of the highest occurring themes was water scarcity, with 71% of respondents noting Factors Affecting Village Vulnerability an increasing difficulty each year in accessing adequate amounts of water for farming. The impact of water scarcity It was shown that glacial areas accounted for 56% of the was shown to be significantly related to observed glacier perceived snowfall decrease in each village in which loss and snowfall decrease. interviews were conducted. South facing villages such as

A Temperature and Crop Variety B Temperature and Water Scarcity

100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 'Water Scarcity' responses (village %) (village responses Scarcity' 'Water 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100

'Increase in crop variety' responses (village %) (village responses variety' crop in 'Increase 'Temperature increase' responses (village %) 'Temperature increase' responses (village %)

Figure 2 Temperature Paradox: Paradoxical Relationships between temperature, water scarcity and increased crop variety. A and B show regression analysis of percent of responses detailing observed temperature increase against increased crop variety and water scarcity respectively. Trend lines are plotted to show R2 values which are, for Graph A: R2 = 0.79 and Graph B: R2 = 0.20. Data from Phey village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend.

A Glacial AreaVulnerability Factors B Glaciated Area Vulnerability Trends

60 3.5 100

90 50 3 80

2.5 ) 70 40 2 60 2 30 50 1.5 40

20 30 1 Glaciated Area (km 20

10 Interview theme responses(village %) Interview theme responses(village%) 0.5 10

0 0 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 South Facing Slopes North Facing Slopes Glaciated Area (km2) Village Type

Snowfall Decrease Irrigation Difficulty Average Glaciated Area Snowfall Decrease Theme Irrigation Difficulty Theme

Figure 3 Glaciated Area Vulnerability: Relationships between glaciated area, snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty. Graph A shows plotted snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty responses, as well as average glaciated area, for north and south facing slopes. Graph B shows regressions of both snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty against glaciated area. Trend lines are plotted to show R2 values which are, for snowfall decrease and glaciated area: R2 = 0.56 and for irrigation difficulty and glaciated area: R2 = 0.62. Data from Sabu village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend.

A Altitude Vulnerability Factors

100 4000 90 3900 80 3800 70 3700 60 3600 50 3500 40 3400 30 3300 VillageAltitude (m) 20 3200

Interview Responses(village %) 10 3100 0 3000 Phey Shey Lower Leh Phyang Stok Nang Saboo Upper Leh Umla

Temperature Increase Glacier Loss Pest Attacks Altitude

B Altitude Vulnerability Trends 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Interview responses(village %) 0 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 Altitude (m) Temperature Increase Glacier Loss Pest Attacks Cloudbursts

Figure 4 Altitude Vulnerability: Relationships between altitude, temperature increase, glacier loss and pest attacks. A shows graphs of interview responses in each village relating to temperature, glacier loss and pest attacks. Altitude is plotted in red. B shows regressions of temperature increase, glacier loss, pest attacks and cloudbursts against village altitude. Projected trend lines are plotted to show R2 values which are, for temperature increase and altitude: R2 = 0.38, for glacier loss and altitude: R2 = 0.40, for pest attacks and altitude: R2 = 0.32 and for cloudbursts and altitude: R2 = 0.51. Data from Shey village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend.

Umla and Nang, which rely mainly on snowfall for has ultimately led to a decrease in crop yields. The only meltwater, noted the largest decrease in snowfall at 50% significant relationship to the theme that farming can be and 100% respectively. However, in Stok village, which sustainable was an increase in temperature. These lies within a north facing watershed containing the highest statistically significant relationships can be seen in Figure glacial area in this study of 3.33 km2, only 20% of 5. interviewees noted a decrease in snowfall. Similarly, glacial areas accounted for 62% of perceived irrigation However, there are mitigation projects and government support in place and these heavily influence the perceived difficulties where Umla and Nang had the highest responses of 75% and 100% respectively, while in Stok, no sustainability of agriculture in Leh Block as a whole. interviewees noted difficulty in irrigation. This is shown in Artificial glaciers were widely used throughout the study figure 3. area, particularly in south facing settlements where there are no longer natural glaciers to provide sustainable melt. Another significant factor influencing the vulnerability of For the snowfall-reliant south facing settlements of Umla each village is altitude. Villages at higher altitude showed and Nang, where there are no natural glaciers left, these a greater percentage of responses relating to cloudbursts. proved to be very successful and residents suggested that Temperature, glacier loss and pest attacks on crops are all more would enhance their situation. Limitations shown to increase in the lower altitudes of the study area. surrounding artificial glaciers elsewhere suggested that In the village of Shey, which lies at 3240 m on the Indus difficulties could be faced where there is a lack of skilled floodplain, 80% of respondents noted a temperature labour and, with increasing temperatures, they might not increase, glacier decrease and pest attack during provide water at the right time. This opinion is expressed interviews. In Umla, which lies at 3914 m, 25% of by a respondent: respondents noted both temperature increase and pest attacks and there was 50% response regarding snowfall “Because of this temperature rising, artificial glacier decrease. This is shown in Figure 4. will melt very easily in a fast manner which will come before the time and maybe it will not succeed.”

(Man, Stok Village) Perceptions of Agricultural Sustainability Respondents believed that the only way for farming in the Of all the interview participants, many believed that area to continue amidst rising temperatures is for artificial farming practices in Ladakh were being severely affected glacier methods to be sustained: by climatic change and that there are many challenges associated with gaining adequate crop yields in the future. Overall, 67% of all interviewees believed farming “…if artificial glacier and the ponds, if that thing works, practices to be endangered in the long term, while 33% it’s perfectly fine. But if it’s not, life of agriculture is believed farming could be sustainable. Decreasing going to be difficult.” snowfall has led to water scarcity and, where artificial glaciers are not effective, a decrease in crop cultivation (Woman, Umla Village) time. This has caused difficulties in irrigating crops which

A Decrease in B snowfall Increase in (p = 0.038) temperature (p = 0.018) Decrease in crop Water scarcity cultivation time (p = 0.003) (p = 0.020) Farming is Farming can be endangered sustainable

Inability to irrigate Decrease in crop yields (p = 0.002) (p = 0.021)

Figure 5 Factors Affecting Perceived Sustainability: Significant factors affecting Graphic A: perception that farming is endangered and Graphic B: perception that farming is sustainable. X2 values are shown alongside each factor which were calculated to one degree of freedom.

DISCUSSION to crop variety increase does not fully represent the long- term sustainability of agriculture in Ladakh. Temperature Increase Paradox It was clear that the sustainability of agriculture in Ladakh Temperature increase was shown to cause both water relies heavily on artificial glaciers, especially for scarcity and an increase in crop variety. The water scarcity settlements on south facing slopes. In areas where artificial issue can be explained by the fact that interviewees source glaciers are effective, agriculture is sustainable in the near water for agricultural irrigation from snow and ice future. However, with temperatures increasing yearly in meltwater streams and, as these decrease in seasonal Ladakh (Bhutiyani et al., 2007; Shekhar et al., 2010), it is discharge, inadequate water reaches the fields. An possible that it may not be cold enough in winter for these explanation for the increase in crop variety could be that, structures to freeze and store water and, if this is the case, as temperature in an agricultural area increases, it is villages such as Umla and Nang would have no source of possible to cultivate a greater number of crops. Ultimately, water for agriculture during the crucial growing period. in most villages in Ladakh, the benefits of wider crop As soon as any village within the study changed from being varieties are not felt because there is not enough water to able to cultivate crops with natural resources alone to cultivate them. If the temperature continues to increase, needing human-made mitigation projects to do so, farming there will be a potential for even more varieties of crop to no longer existed within the means of nature. As this is the be cultivated, but there will also be significantly less water case in many of the villages studied, particularly those on for irrigation, leading to a likely net loss in crop yields. south facing slopes, it is suggested by this study that agriculture in Ladakh is currently not sustainable according to Wackernagel and Rees’ (1962) definition. Factors Affecting Village Vulnerability For the best chance for farming to continue in Ladakh and This study suggests that the type of river catchments in for a minimal decrease in crop yields to occur, the Ladakh impact the level of vulnerability to climate change integrated management of these mitigation strategies is experienced in each village. Villages in watersheds with needed by the Indian Government and Ladakh-based less glacial areas available to produce melt water have organisations. This will be most successful when heightened vulnerability to the effects of snowfall decrease international research can connect with and inform these and have a higher likelihood of experiencing irrigation governments and organisations. difficulties. Watersheds lying on south facing slopes are particularly vulnerable to this as they receive the highest TEK and Scientific Literature levels of sunlight, which has caused them to have the smallest glacial areas. However, watersheds on north TEK in Leh Block clearly mirrored scientific data on facing slopes had significantly larger glacial areas, due to temperature increases. Respondents noted significant the shade they receive, and were significantly less warming in their lifetime and, when elders of the vulnerable to water scarcity. communities reflected on climatic conditions when they were younger, they noted that temperatures were much Villages were shown to be more impacted by the issues of cooler. In considering how closely TEK in Leh links to temperature increase, glacier loss and a pest increase at scientific literature, this same change can be seen in the lower altitudes of around 3100m on the Indus Floodplain. data and projection from Shekhar et al. (2010) and Temperature increases exponentially with altitude in Bhutiyani et al. (2007) which summarises several data sets Ladakh (Rizvi, 1999) and colder temperatures in the higher to suggest that temperatures in the beginning of the altitude areas of the study area would cause less glacial twentieth century were over 2oC cooler and began to warm melt and not be conducive to the survival of pests. Villages after ~ 1980. Data relating to glacial mass balance was also that lie on the Indus Floodplain watershed can reduce regularly discussed throughout the investigation. Schmidt vulnerability to factors contributing to water scarcity such and Nüsser’s (2010) study showed over a 14% decrease in as glacier loss if they can access water directly from the glaciated area over the last fifty years and respondents were Indus River. Overall, the most vulnerable settlements in in strong agreement with this trend, and glacier loss in this study area to climate change are those on south facing Ladakh was a common theme. However, little further detail slopes due to the poorer access to water. was given by interviewees in the present study regarding particular glacial areas or distances of recession. Agricultural Sustainability in the West Himalayas Subsequent impacts of climate change, temperature CONCLUSION increase and water scarcity can be seen in the reasons for Climate science has shown a clear trend of rising respondents felt that agriculture is endangered. Snowfall temperature, decreasing snowfall and glacier loss in the decrease means that glaciers do not advance in winter and West Himalayas, but to understand fully the issue and are receding, meaning that there is less meltwater each year mitigate against this at a local level, the perceptions and causing water scarcity issues. This lack of water causes an TEK of people in the region must also be considered. inability to irrigate fields for the optimum duration and, Results from the present study in Ladakh suggest that ultimately, in a decrease in crop yields. The fact that the people believe farming to be significantly challenged by only significant link to the viewpoint that farming can be the effects of climate change and that overall, it is sustainable is temperature increase could be influenced by endangered. The main impacts that influenced this belief the temperature increase paradox. This paradox could were water scarcity and a difficulty in irrigating crops at suggest that some of the data obtained in this study relating the right time of year. The areas most vulnerable to these impacts are villages in south facing slope watersheds

where there is insufficient meltwater coming from glaciers Angmo, T., Mishra, S.N. (2009) ‘Impact of climate change in Ladakh for irrigation. It is also suggested that the higher and Lahaul & Spiti of the Western Himalaya region’, in Energy and Climate Change in Cold Regions of Asia: Proceedings of the Seminar temperatures at lower altitudes in the study area heightened 21 to 24 April 2009, India: GERES. vulnerability to pest attacks and perceived glacier loss. Mitigation strategies such as artificial glaciers were Berkes, F. (1993) ‘Traditional ecological knowledge in perspective’, successful when situated high enough for water to freeze in Traditional Ecological Knowledge: Concepts and Cases, Ed: Inglis, J., Ottawa: Canadian Museum of Nature and the International in winter and when receiving adequate water supply in Development Research Centre, pp. 1 – 9. autumn. 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