1 [X]Position, Vol. XX, No. Y, Month 2017 CLIMATE CHANGE AND PERCEIVED AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY IN THE WEST HIMALAYA Mackay, Cameron (Submitted May 2017; Reviewed June 2017; Accepted July 2017) ABSTRACT A long-term trend of increasing climate change in the West Himalayas has caused regional temperature increase and snowfall decrease. Whilst this has been demonstrated through a wide selection of scientific studies, there is an opportunity for further research detailing the subsequent human impact. Through gathering data of traditional ecological knowledge from remote subsistence communities in the study area of Leh Block in North India, the perceptions of local people relating to the perceived sustainability of agriculture were examined through an interview-based study. Results show that agriculture is believed to be endangered due to water scarcity, irrigation difficulties and a shortening of the growing season due to climate change. Analysis also revealed that the factors of altitude and glacial area within the watershed of each studied village significantly influenced vulnerability to these changes. Villages at lower altitudes on south facing slopes with little glacial area within their watersheds were shown to be the most vulnerable to environmental change. Due to these changes, climate change can now be seen as a push factor influencing migration away from agricultural areas. This study summarises the observed impact of climate change and agricultural sustainability in the West Himalayas and compares this to previous regional and global research relating to climate change and traditional ecological knowledge. INTRODUCTION due to the accelerated melting of glaciers, which is putting increasing pressure on agricultural systems (Daultrey, Increasing climatic change has caused environmental 2011). To help support these remote communities in conditions to reach unprecedented extremes (Zalasiewiez adapting to climatic changes, Salick and Byg (2007) et al. 2010). Due to a rise in global mean surface o discuss how a global response is needed, for which detailed temperature of 0.85 C between 1880 and 2012, there have accounts of these communities’ perceptions and been widespread and adverse impacts on physical, experiences are highly valued and will allow more biological and human systems (IPCC, 2014). The people appropriate support to be administered. Also, through most adversely affected by these changes are those living communicating such research findings to policy makers in locations of high latitude and altitude, as well as those and the public in countries such as the UK, decisions to act who rely solely on cultivation of the physical landscape for in more globally aware and environmentally sustainable food and livelihood (Tariyal and Bartwal, 2014). This is ways can be influenced (Happer and Philo, 2013; Korte, particularly evident in mountainous regions, such as the 2016). Ladakh region of the Indian Himalayas shown in Figure 1, where people are currently facing severe water shortages B A Umla Phyang Leh N Phey Sabu Shey Stok Nang Indus River Large City Small Village Major River 5km Figure 1 Maps showing settlements in which research was conducted. Map A shows the country of India with Ladakh region Highlighted. Map B shows precise Indus River Basin Field area. Adapted from Patterson (2016) and Google (2016). Author, Cameron Mackay, Geography, College of Science and Engineering, [email protected] 2 Village Phey Shey Leh Phyang Saboo Stok Nang Umla Site Floodplain Floodplain South Facing Slope South Facing Slope South Facing Slope North Facing Slope South Facing Slope South Facing Slope Altitude (m) 1391 3240 3500 3530 3550 3600 3630 3880 Watershed Natural spring Indus River 1.30km2 glaciated 1.95m2 glaciated 0.28km2 glaciated 3.33km2 glaciated No glaciers, seasonal No glaciers, seasonal area, seasonal area, seasonal area, seasonal area, seasonal snowfall snowfall snowfall snowfall snowfall snowfall Interviews 2 5 19 2 5 5 5 4 Table 1 Village Site Information. Altitude and glaciated area data taken from Google Earth Pro (2016). The region of Ladakh, being a ‘high altitude desert’ and Rees’ (1962) definition of sustainability as the ability to having a subsistence agriculture system that relies heavily ‘live equitably within the means of nature’ will be on seasonal irrigation sources, is particularly vulnerable to considered. the impacts of climate change (Rizvi, 1999). Climatic o This study had the following research objectives: research has identified a rise in temperature of over 1.6 C in Ladakh since 1901 (Bhutiyani et al., 2007) and a region 1. Identify the extent to which climate change is experienced o wide increase of ~2 C in the West Himalayas between in Block Leh; 1984 and 2008 (Shekhar et al., 2010). This has led to a 14% 2. Establish factors affecting the vulnerability of reduction in Ladakh’s glaciated area (Schmidt and Nüsser, communities in Ladakh to climate change; 2012), a decrease in annual snowfall (Kripalani et al., 3. Establish how successful and sustainable operational 2003) and an increase in the instability of rainfall including mitigation strategies are; severe flash flood events (Thayyen et al., 2013). To gain an 4. Given predicted future temperature increase in Ladakh, understanding of how these climatic changes impact establish how sustainable farming practices are believed to people, the concept of traditional ecological knowledge be; (TEK) can be considered. Defined by Berkes (1993) as 5. Identify to what extent traditional ecological knowledge ‘experience acquired over thousands of years of direct (TEK) relates to scientific knowledge. human contact with the environment’, TEK can add a vital human dimension to physical climate change research and give an in-depth account of how human systems respond to these climatic changes (Harrington, 2015). The current METHODOLOGY body of work detailing human responses to climate change Study Area in Ladakh shows that there are many cases of water scarcity as the water that used to be easily sourced from glacial The Leh Block area of the Indus Valley in the Ladakh meltwater is no longer readily available (Angmo and Region of North India was chosen as the study area for this Mishra, 2009) and farming practices are becoming more project, as is shown in Figure 1. This area provided access difficult to maintain as a result (Pellicardi et al., 2014). to many agricultural settlements as well as the largest city Daultrey and Gergan (2011) note that a technique called in the region, Leh, which acts as a central hub for many of ‘artificial glaciers’ has been implemented in Ladakh the agricultural areas in Ladakh (Rizvi, 1999). Each village whereby meltwater from glaciers is collected in Autumn in studied was situated within its own individual river a series of dams, staggered at different altitudes, frozen catchment, so clear analysis of respective responses over winter, and allowed to melt periodically and produce relating to water availability for each village could be water in Spring. It is suggested by Fisher (2016) that this conducted. The three types of watershed included were method has been effective in extending crop cultivation north facing slope, south facing slope and floodplain and times in Ladkah, but the future of artificial glaciers will eight villages were visited in total to collect data, a depend on the health of the region’s natural glaciers and summary of this can be seen in Table 1. The sampling their meltwater. strategy was to visit 50% of the villages in each type of watershed. Five out of ten south facing slope villages were So far, TEK has mainly been implemented in regions visited, one out of two north facing slope villages and four documenting climate change research in the Arctic and out of eight floodplain villages. Each village was at a North America (Harrington, 2015; Pearce et al., 2015; different altitude ranging from 3190 to 3880 m. There were Sakakibara, 2008) and little focus has been centred on many other differences between villages such as access, mountainous regions. Where it has been used, it has made communication and ethnic background but all villages valuable contributions to local governments and to global studied had a significant reliance on agriculture. academic understanding (Alexander et al., 2011). A gap in research therefore exists that looks at the human impact of climate change and resulting changes to the climate and physical landscapes in mountain regions, particularly the Methods Indian Himalayas. The present study aimed to investigate Fieldwork was conducted in the Leh Block region of this further, whilst testing the feasibility of TEK for this Ladakh between 13th July and 8th August 2016. The main area of research in Ladakh. In considering the research technique used in this study was the structured sustainability of agricultural areas in the present study in open-ended interview which consists of a standardised and relation to physical climatic changes, Wackernagel and comparable series of questions in which participants were free to construct their own narrative. A total of 47 Temperature increase was shown to cause positive and interviews were conducted in English and Ladakhi with negative impacts. Respondents detailed the positive impact farmers, Indian government officials and local agriculture of an increase in the variety of crops that can now be grown specialists in Block Leh. A translator was used for Ladakhi in Ladakh which has allowed both a greater quantity of interviews. 38 of these interviews were conducted on traditional crops to be grown such as apples and apricots as agricultural sites and these were statistically analysed to well as new crops such as wheat. The negative impacts compare vulnerability to climate change between different significantly related to temperature increase were glacier village watersheds. This methodological approach was loss and snowfall decrease, as shown in Figure 2. developed with particular reference to the work of Byg and Temperature increase was shown to account for 79% of the Salick (2009). increased crop variety responses and it was also shown to account for 20% of water scarcity responses.