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Solar Energy Toward a Sustainable Growth

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Solar Energy Toward a Sustainable Growth Solar Energy Toward a sustainable growth Marco Raganella Head of Technical Support Solar Activities Business Development Enel Green Power S.p.A. Seminario Internacional Solar Antofagasta – Chile 6th October 2009 Agenda • Renewables geographies and technologies • Growth of Solar Energy and key drivers • Enel Green Power experience Dec 2008 1 Renewable energies: strong fundamentals in all geographies Estimates of renewables installed capacity, 2008-2020 Europe 1,030 GW max North America 620 GW min TOTAL WORLD 390 GW 550 GW max 3,020 GW min max 230 GW 330 GW 2008 2020 1,820 GW min 1,150 GW 2008 2020 2008 2020 Latin America Africa Asia 1,000 GW max 600 GW min 330 GW max 350 GW min 110 GW max 150 GW 200 GW min 70 GW min 30 GW 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 UpUp toto 1,9001,900 GWGW ofof renewablerenewable capacitycapacity additionsadditions Source: Enel estimates based/WEO 2008/GWEC 2008 (2008); WEO 2008 Reference Scenario (2020 min); Industry reports/McKinsey (2020 max) Dec 2008 2 Renewable energies: strong fundamentals in all technologies Global installed Global installed Technology base base Δ capacity CAGR Technological maturity 2008 2020 2% Very high (large hydro) Hydro 960 GW 1,280 GW +320 GW 8% Very high (small hydro) Biomass 50 GW 470 GW +420 GW 20% Very high Geothermal 10 GW 30 GW +20 GW 10% High High (on-shore) Wind 120 GW 800 GW +680 GW 17% Low (off-shore) Medium (c-SI) Solar Low (Thin Film) PV Solar 10 GW 440 GW +430 GW 37% Concentrated Low solar power TOTAL 1,150 GW 3,020 GW+1,870 GW 8% AllAll technologiestechnologies havehave potentipotentialal forfor majormajor capacitycapacity additionsadditions SolarSolar appearsappears asas thethe mostmost promisingpromising inin termsterms ofof growthgrowth Source: Enel estimates based/WEO 2008/GWEC 2008 (2008); Industry reports/McKinsey (2020) Dec 2008 3 Agenda • Renewables geographies and technologies • Growth of Solar Energy and key drivers • Enel Green Power experience Dec 2008 4 Global Solar Outlook Cumulative Power in GW Solar PV Solar CSP Source: Enel analysis on WEO 2008, industry reports Source: Global CSP Outlook 2009 – Moderate scenario 69 x140 x1.5 25 0,3 0,5 2000 2008 2015 2020 •• CapacityCapacity growthgrowth ratesrates ofof photovoltaicphotovoltaic •• AccordingAccording toto thethe GlobalGlobal CSPCSP OutlookOutlook powerpower aboveabove 15%15% perper yearyear 20092009 CSPCSP couldcould meetmeet fromfrom 3%3% toto 7%7% •• InIn 20082008 worldwideworldwide capacitycapacity increasedincreased ofof thethe world’sworld’s projectedprojected powerpower needsneeds byby overover 55 GWGW inin 20302030 Dec 2008 5 Key driver 1 – Energy policy targets Support to RES to reduce Greenhouse-gas emissions Main growth’s helping conditions • Smart economic subsidies • Electric system integration • Clear administrative framework • Strong supply chain • Financing availability Key boundary conditions • People awareness • Policy commitment • Communication and training • Solar Associations and R&D communities Source: EPIA global market otlook for PV until 2013 • Strong solar industry • Good economic condition and Banks awareness Dec 2008 6 Key driver 2 – Technology deployment Medium/long term evolution Short term Medium term Long term 1-5 years 5-10 years 10+ years Wave 1 – Crystal Silicon (c-Si) SolarSolar PVPV Wave 2b – Thin film: Wave 2a – Thin film: Copper, Indium, Gallium, amorphous Silicon (a- Selenide (CIGS) Si) Cadmium Telluride nano-technologies (CdTe) SolarSolar Wave 3 – Solar thermal thermalthermal •• a-Sia-Si thinthin filmfilm evolvesevolves asas aa newnew competitivecompetitive large-scalelarge-scale technologytechnology •• StillStill largelarge potentialpotential forfor technologicaltechnological evolutionevolution Dec 2008 7 Toward the Solar power sustainable growth TheThe aimaim is is to to lower lower the the LevelizedLevelized Cost Cost of of Electricity Electricity (LCOE) (LCOE) AsAs muchmuch toto reachreach GridGrid ParityParity andand sustainabilitysustainability forfor citizenscitizens andand enterprises enterprises Dec 2008 8 Agenda • Renewables geographies and technologies • Growth of Solar Energy and key drivers • Enel Green Power experience Dec 2008 9 Enel Green Power’s unique development business model The industry so far • Wind-only portfolio • Balanced portfolio TechnologyTechnology mixmix of technologies • Polarized presence • Diversified presence GeographicGeographic presencepresence • Heavy dependence • Limited dependence Long-termLong-term on incentive on incentive sustainability sustainability schemes schemes • Debt • Operating cash flows FinancingFinancing KeyKey • Growth • Return on Investment PerformancePerformance • MW (Installed capacity) • TWh (Energy production) IndicatorsIndicators AA newnew modelmodel forfor renewables:renewables: sustsustainableainable andand profitableprofitable growthgrowth Dec 2008 10 Enel Green Power: large renewable player well positioned in growth geographies 2009 – first half EGP presence Enel Green Power 4.572MW 17,2 TWh North America 788 MW 1,8 TWh France 28 MW Romania 0,01 TWh Pipeline Bulgaria Pipeline Latin America Iberia 401 MW 667 MW 0,8 TWh 3,5 TWh Greece Italy 127 MW 2.560 MW 0,2 TWh 10,9 TWh Note: Endesa installed capacity is 1.026 MW (799 MW in Iberia and 227 MW in Latin America) Dec 2008 11 Leveraging on competencies HydroHydro GeothermalGeothermal WindWind SolarSolar PVPV 2,5 GW installed globally 0,7 GW installed globally 1,2 GW installed globally Strong position in the fast growing Italian market • Upstream integration into • Long lasting • Skills in development, • Large pipeline, split cell/module competencies exploration, engineering among geographies to manufacturing (in and construction, O&M • Skills ranging from maximize optionality and progress) return on investment development to operation • Development of new • Leading retail network in and maintenance projects in Latin America • Flexibility in turbines Italy (Enel.si) and North America procurement, taking • Project pipeline in Italy •Competence Centre and Latin America advantage of industry shake-up (overcapacity, (within R&D Division) in cost reduction) Italy Established competencies Well positioned to take Fully integrated Unique position in the in advantage of sector geothermal operator solar PV value chain development and O&M shake-up LeveragingLeveraging competenciescompetencies acrossacross allall geographiesgeographies Dec 2008 12 Enel Green Power and the Solar value chain ManufacturingManufacturing DistributionDistribution DevelopmentDevelopment ConstructionConstruction O&MO&M •Building & •Supplying of •Land Scouting •Final design •Plant visual inspection Production photovoltaic MajorMajor •Due diligence •Modules, inverters, •PV testing Equipment(*): components content BOS integration content •Conceptual design •PV field measurement •Plant certification Enel Green Enel Green Long Term Project lead In-house : own plants PowerPower Enel.si Make and buy Partnership Outsourcing Enel.si franchisees •Flexible •Procurement •Dedicated •Specialized •Combined contracts development and engineering team: O&M with •Franchising engineering team Construction Project existing •Set of asset- network with management renewables Activity based and over 450 Activity commercial entrepreneurs •Network of long-term PV installers •Over 50 MW of supply options throughout PV installed in under study Italy past three years (*) Silicon Crystalline Production Plant Dec 2008 13 Enel Green Power’s solar pipeline development Selected investme nt opportun ities Monegros Total Montalto di Castro N. plants 4 Carpio de Tajo Nazzano 4 MW Casar Cerralbos Cerano 2 GWh Guijo de Coria Codrongianos Serre P. Pipeline 592 MW Robledo Rocío Palazzo Alcalá Guadaira Priolo Gargallo Adrano Iberia • Very high irradiation Italy • High irradiation in Southern Italy Pipeline 325 MW • Positive policy scenario N. plants 4 • Positive policy scenario 4 MW • Diversification into CSP 2 GWh • Cost competitive projects at existing Enel sites Pipeline 267 MW • Projects with fast authorization process Dec 2008 14 Enel Innovation for Solar Technology Advanced Solar Laboratory in Catania Main activities • Advanced research center for solar photovoltaic and thermodynamics • Photovoltaic system laboratory and test site (solar simulator, climatic rooms, CPV test field) Dec 2008 15 Enel Innovation for Solar Technology The Archimede Project Key innovations • The use of molten salts both as thermal vector and energy storage fluid. • Absorbing tube with a selective coating, specifically designed for high temperatures • Heat storage System Integrated with solar field 5MWe5MWe PlantPlant underunder constructionconstruction inin Sicily,Sicily, inin operationoperation inin 20102010 Dec 2008 16 THE REAL REVOLUTION IS NOT TO CHANGE THE WORLD Thank you Marco Raganella –[email protected] Enel.si – Impianto da 1,5 MWp su tetto Dec 2008 S. Marco Argentano (CS) 17.
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