Michigan Is Not Full
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ISSUE BRIEF : Q3 2019 MICHIGAN IS NOT FULL STATE REPORT TOPLINE President Trump argues we cannot accommodate more immigrants because “our country is full.” In actuality, America has an aging problem, declining birthrates, and thousands of underpopulated cities and towns struggling with falling home prices and dwindling tax revenue. We need immigrants to keep our economy growing. U.S. MICHIGAN Our country is full. Our area is full. 1. The U.S. has plenty of land, water, food, 1. Michigan’s population is among the oldest in the U.S., and it is aging faster and energy. “ The sector is full… “ Can’t take you anymore. than the rest of the country. 2. America's problem is fewer babies, I’m sorry, turn around, fewer workers, and migration from 2. Its aging population is slowing business that’s the way it is.1 small towns to big cities. formation and job growth. It’s also increasing health care costs and 3. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies encouraging younger workers to leave. - PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP are bad for business, property values, pensions, and social security. 3. Immigrants already contribute $1.9 billion to Michigan's economy each 4. Over 10 years, restrictive immigration year.3 Continued immigration could policies could cost $1.5 trillion in prevent Michigan’s economy GDP and 15.3 million jobs.2 from spiraling. 5. Countries currently on the track Trump 4. A balanced immigration policy would recommends are struggling. grow Michigan’s economy by $17 billion over ten years. Restrictive policies would reduce Michigan’s economy by $10 billion.4 2 THE U.S. HAS PLENTY OF LAND, WATER, FOOD, AND ENERGY FOR MILLIONS OF NEW AMERICANS FARMABLE LAND & FRESHWATER POPULATION DENSITY U.S. FOOD PRODUCTION The U.S. has room. In 2018, the UN reported THE U.S. EXPORTS PEOPLE PER SQUARE MILE that the U.S. had seven times fewer people OF FARMABLE LAND5 per square mile than the UK and four times $140 BILLION fewer than China. IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS PER YEAR.8 U.S. 517 6x MORE FARMLAND CHINA 2,946 PER CAPITA PEOPLE PER SQUARE MILE7 THAN CHINA U.S. ENERGY PRODUCTION 713 (QUADRILLION BTUS, 2018)9 RENEWABLE INTERNAL FRESHWATER, 390 PER CAPITA, IN THOUSANDS OF CUBIC METERS6 PRODUCTION 96 U.S. 8.8 4x 93 MORE EXPORTS 21 FRESHWATER CHINA 2.1 PER CAPITA THAN CHINA U.S. U.K. CHINA NET IMPORTS 4 3 OUR REAL PROBLEM: FEWER BABIES, FEWER WORKERS, AND MIGRATION FROM SMALLER CITIES TO BIGGER ONES The U.S. has two problems that, together, are putting enormous pressure on half of the country. 1) Americans are having fewer kids, and 2) they are leaving less-populated areas for jobs and opportunities in major cities, mostly on the East and West Coasts. DECLINING FERTILITY RATE BY 2035, SENIORS WILL OUTNUMBER MIGRATION TO CITIES MINORS IN THE U.S. U.S. fertility is at a record low. To maintain Superstar cities such as New York City, our population, each woman must have The number of seniors in the U.S. Los Angeles, and San Francisco 2.1 children on average; today, they are having is on track to double by 2060. To maintain have attracted highly skilled workers 1.8. Without immigration, the U.S. population will a substantial labor force, the to knowledge industries. shrink. Economists predict our birth rate will U.S. needs more babies and immigrants. fall to 1.5 or 1.4 children per woman. U.S. FERTILITY RATE10 U.S. POPULATION AGED 0-17 & AGED 65+11 4 100,000,000 80% of American 3.5 3.5 counties had fewer 75,000,000 working-age adults 33 in 2017 than they 2.52.5 did in 2007. These counties 2.1 50,000,000 CHILDREN PER represent 149 million 22 WOMAN Americans or MAINTAINS OUR POPULATION 25,000,000 1.51.5 11 25,000,000 46% of our population.12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2010 2020 2030 2040 POPULATION AGED 65+ POPULATION AGED 0-17 4 SLOWING LABOR GROWTH IS BAD FOR BUSINESS AND WORSE FOR SOCIAL SECURITY DECLINING LFP = DEPLETING SOCIAL SECURITY LESS ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OTHER PENSIONS We're“ about to hit a tipping point. The safety net systems are In 2018, the Congressional Budget Office The ratio of contributing workers to already starting to break, and “ reported that the labor force participation rate Social Security beneficiaries has dropped demand is going to continue would decrease over the next ten years as a drastically since 1960. to increase.15 result of baby boomers aging into retirement. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED NUMBER OF WORKERS SUPPORTING - HEIDI GUSTINE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE13 EACH SOCIAL SECURITY RETIREE14 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, AREA AGENCY ON AGING OF NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN 68.0 5.1 5 61% 66.0 DECLINE 4 62.9 64.0 3 The looming problem down the 2 “ 62.0 2 road will be labor shortages, 1 particularly of workers with skills 60.0 0 that mesh with the 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 evolving knowledge- and “ 58.0 information-based economy.16 56.0 THE SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 WILL RUN OUT OF MONEY BY 2033. - GEORGE FULTON & DON GRIMES 2017 FORECAST FOR MI'S DOT 5 WHEN A COMMUNITY AGES AND SHRINKS, IT CREATES A NEGATIVE CYCLE THAT’S HARD TO BREAK LESS BUSINESS While an older population INVESTMENT FEWER “ is great for health care and WORKERS related retirement-based businesses, it is not one that will drive entrepreneurship and “ associated business growth.17 NEGATIVE - KURT METZGER MAYOR OF PLEASANT RIDGE, MI DECLINING CYCLE PROPERTY VALUES LOWER TAX “MICHIGAN IS NO. 1! AT GETTING REVENUES OLD. THAT’S NOT GOOD NEWS.” “U.S. Census data released Thursday show that 21 of Michigan’s 83 counties have a median age of 50 years old or older, the highest in the nation.”18 LESS PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE BY MIKE WILKINSON AND SCHOOLS JUNE 20, 2019 6 MICHIGAN, ALREADY OLD, IS AGING FASTER THAN OTHER STATES MICHIGAN’S POPULATION IS MICHIGANDERS ARE AGING FASTER ALREADY OLD MEDIAN AGE RANKINGS19 UTAH ALASKA 20 TEXAS MICHIGAN POPULATION AGED 0-17 & AGED 65+ NORTH DAKOTA IDAHO CALIFORNIA NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA KANSAS GEORGIA LOUISIANA 2,500,000 COLORADO SOUTH DAKOTA MISSISSIPPI SENIORS WYOMING ARIZONA ARE GOING TO NEW MEXICO INDIANA WASHINGTON 2,000,000 OUTNUMBER ILLINOIS NEVADA NATIONAL AVERAGE MINNESOTA MINORS ARKANSAS VIRGINIA IOWA MISSOURI 1,500,000 BY 2025 NORTH CAROLINA NEW YORK MARYLAND TENNESSEE KENTUCKY 7 YEARS ALABAMA HAWAII SOUTH CAROLINA 1,000,000 BEFORE THE OREGON WISCONSIN NATIONAL AVERAGE OHIO MASSACHUSETTS NEW JERSEY 2010 2020 2030 2040 MICHIGAN MONTANA DELAWARE RHODE ISLAND PENNSYLVANIA CONNECTICUT FLORIDA WEST VIRGINIA POPULATION AGED 65+ POPULATION AGED 0-17 NEW HAMPSHIRE VERMONT MAINE 0 10 20 30 40 50 AGE 7 MICHIGAN IS ENTERING A NEGATIVE CYCLE v AGING SLOWS BUSINESS AGING INCREASES HEALTH MICHIGAN IS LOSING FORMATION AND JOB GROWTH CARE COSTS YOUNG TALENT BRAIN DRAIN (GAP IN PERCENT OF HIGHLY BUSINESS DYNAMISM RANKINGS (EIG)21 As Michigan ages, the cost of caring for its EDUCATED BETWEEN ENTRANTS AND LEAVERS)24 population will increase. The greatest risk factor for CALIFORNIA EIG’s ranking reflects the rate developing Alzheimer’s is old age. Health costs MASSACHUSETTS NEW YORK of new business formation, associated with Alzheimer’s disease alone will cost ILLINOIS MARYLAND frequency of labor market turnover, nearly $15 billion by 2025.22 NEW JERSEY VIRGINIA the geographic mobility of TEXAS COLORADO ADDING the workforce. OREGON NUMBER OF ALZHEIMER’S PATIENTS MAINE TALENT 23 WASHINGTON IN MICHIGAN (65+) ARIZONA 60 HAWAII GEORGIA MINNESOTA 220K NORTH CAROLINA 180K RHODE ISLAND 40 WYOMING UTAH NEW MEXICO CONNECTICUT ALASKA TENNESSEE 20 LOUISIANA FLORIDA ARKANSAS MONTANA SOUTH CAROLINA KANSAS 0 NEBRASKA VERMONT NV UT FL CO ND NTL MI WI IA PA OH KENTUCKY 2018 2025 NEVADA AVG OHIO ALABAMA MISSOURI JULY 29, 2019 MICHIGAN NEW HAMPSHIRE LOSING TED ROELOFS PENNSYLVANIA WEST VIRGINIA TALENT MICHIGAN INDIANA ALZHEIMER’S IN MICHIGAN: THE WISCONSIN RANKS OKLAHOMA IDAHO COMING STORM MISSISSIPPI IOWA SOUTH DAKOTA #43 DELAWARE NORTH DAKOTA -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 8 IMMIGRANTS CAN BREAK THE NEGATIVE CYCLE IN MICHIGAN RECENT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRANTS START IMMIGRANTS CAN HELP FILL IMMIGRATION = DIFFERENCE ALREADY CONTRIBUTE NEW BUSINESSES26 THE HEALTH CARE LABOR GAP BETWEEN MODEST AND $1.9 BILLION TO MICHIGAN SERIOUS POPULATION 25 EACH YEAR DECLINE New jobs tend to come from new Across the U.S., and in Michigan The net economic impact of businesses, but business creation in specifically, there is a shortage of immigrants to Michigan includes Michigan is down. Immigrants are an doctors. By one estimate, Michigan Between 2018 and 2025, Michigan household income and tax exception. currently needs 1,000 more health will depend on 163,000 immigrants to prevent harmful population and contributions minus the cost of care professionals for areas workforce decline.30 services like schools, police representing 8.4 million residents. protection, and health care. MORE THAN The demand is expected to increase 28 as Michigan's population ages. WITH WITHOUT 33,000 IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION IMMIGRANTS MAKE UP A LARGE IMMIGRANT SHARE OF DOCTORS ENTREPRENEURS across Michigan Even though -37,000 immigrants represent HAVE CREATED 6% of Michigan’s 167,000 population... NEW JOBS ...they make up 30% +$1.9B Immigrants are both more likely to MICHIGAN of Michigan’s have a degree in higher education doctors.29 and more likely to participate in the -200,000 workforce.27 9 TO APPRECIATE HOW RADICAL AND COSTLY RESTRICTIVE IMMIGRATION POLICIES ARE, COMPARE THEM TO WHAT MODERATE REPUBLICANS HAVE PROPOSED The Business Roundtable is a non-partisan national trade group that generally supports Republican policies.