ISSUE BRIEF : Q3 2019
MICHIGAN IS NOT FULL
STATE REPORT TOPLINE
President Trump argues we cannot accommodate more immigrants because “our country is full.” In actuality, America has an aging problem, declining birthrates, and thousands of underpopulated cities and towns struggling with falling home prices and dwindling tax revenue. We need immigrants to keep our economy growing.
U.S. MICHIGAN
Our country is full.
Our area is full. 1. The U.S. has plenty of land, water, food, 1. Michigan’s population is among the and energy. oldest in the U.S., and it is aging faster “ The sector is full… “ Can’t take you anymore. than the rest of the country. 2. America's problem is fewer babies, I’m sorry, turn around, fewer workers, and migration from 2. Its aging population is slowing business that’s the way it is.1 small towns to big cities. formation and job growth. It’s also increasing health care costs and 3. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies encouraging younger workers to leave. - PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP are bad for business, property values, pensions, and social security. 3. Immigrants already contribute $1.9 billion to Michigan's economy each 4. Over 10 years, restrictive immigration year.3 Continued immigration could policies could cost $1.5 trillion in prevent Michigan’s economy GDP and 15.3 million jobs.2 from spiraling.
5. Countries currently on the track Trump 4. A balanced immigration policy would recommends are struggling. grow Michigan’s economy by $17 billion over ten years. Restrictive policies would reduce Michigan’s economy by $10 billion.4
2 THE U.S. HAS PLENTY OF LAND, WATER, FOOD, AND ENERGY FOR MILLIONS OF NEW AMERICANS
FARMABLE LAND & FRESHWATER POPULATION DENSITY U.S. FOOD PRODUCTION
The U.S. has room. In 2018, the UN reported THE U.S. EXPORTS PEOPLE PER SQUARE MILE that the U.S. had seven times fewer people OF FARMABLE LAND5 per square mile than the UK and four times $140 BILLION fewer than China. IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS PER YEAR.8 U.S. 517 6x MORE FARMLAND CHINA 2,946 PER CAPITA PEOPLE PER SQUARE MILE7 THAN CHINA U.S. ENERGY PRODUCTION 713
(QUADRILLION BTUS, 2018)9 RENEWABLE INTERNAL FRESHWATER, 390 PER CAPITA, IN THOUSANDS OF CUBIC METERS6 PRODUCTION 96
U.S. 8.8 4x 93 MORE EXPORTS 21 FRESHWATER CHINA 2.1 PER CAPITA THAN CHINA
U.S. U.K. CHINA NET IMPORTS 4
3 OUR REAL PROBLEM: FEWER BABIES, FEWER WORKERS, AND MIGRATION FROM SMALLER CITIES TO BIGGER ONES
The U.S. has two problems that, together, are putting enormous pressure on half of the country. 1) Americans are having fewer kids, and 2) they are leaving less-populated areas for jobs and opportunities in major cities, mostly on the East and West Coasts.
DECLINING FERTILITY RATE BY 2035, SENIORS WILL OUTNUMBER MIGRATION TO CITIES MINORS IN THE U.S. U.S. fertility is at a record low. To maintain Superstar cities such as New York City, our population, each woman must have The number of seniors in the U.S. Los Angeles, and San Francisco 2.1 children on average; today, they are having is on track to double by 2060. To maintain have attracted highly skilled workers 1.8. Without immigration, the U.S. population will a substantial labor force, the to knowledge industries. shrink. Economists predict our birth rate will U.S. needs more babies and immigrants. fall to 1.5 or 1.4 children per woman.
U.S. FERTILITY RATE10 U.S. POPULATION AGED 0-17 & AGED 65+11
4 100,000,000 80% of American 3.5 3.5 counties had fewer 75,000,000 working-age adults 33 in 2017 than they 2.52.5 did in 2007. These counties 2.1 50,000,000 CHILDREN PER represent 149 million 22 WOMAN Americans or MAINTAINS OUR POPULATION 25,000,000 1.51.5
11 25,000,000 46% of our population.12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2010 2020 2030 2040
POPULATION AGED 65+ POPULATION AGED 0-17
4 SLOWING LABOR GROWTH IS BAD FOR BUSINESS AND WORSE FOR SOCIAL SECURITY
DECLINING LFP = DEPLETING SOCIAL SECURITY
LESS ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OTHER PENSIONS We're“ about to hit a tipping point.
The safety net systems are In 2018, the Congressional Budget Office The ratio of contributing workers to already starting to break, and “ reported that the labor force participation rate Social Security beneficiaries has dropped demand is going to continue would decrease over the next ten years as a drastically since 1960. to increase.15 result of baby boomers aging into retirement.
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED NUMBER OF WORKERS SUPPORTING - HEIDI GUSTINE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE13 EACH SOCIAL SECURITY RETIREE14 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, AREA AGENCY ON AGING OF NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN 68.0 5.1 5 61% 66.0 DECLINE 4 62.9 64.0 3 The looming problem down the 2 “ 62.0 2 road will be labor shortages,
1 particularly of workers with skills
60.0 0 that mesh with the 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 evolving knowledge- and “ 58.0 information-based economy.16 56.0 THE SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 WILL RUN OUT OF MONEY BY 2033. - GEORGE FULTON & DON GRIMES 2017 FORECAST FOR MI'S DOT
5 WHEN A COMMUNITY AGES AND SHRINKS, IT CREATES A NEGATIVE CYCLE THAT’S HARD TO BREAK
LESS BUSINESS While an older population INVESTMENT FEWER “ is great for health care and WORKERS
related retirement-based
businesses, it is not one that will drive entrepreneurship and “ associated business growth.17
NEGATIVE - KURT METZGER MAYOR OF PLEASANT RIDGE, MI DECLINING CYCLE PROPERTY VALUES LOWER TAX “MICHIGAN IS NO. 1! AT GETTING
REVENUES OLD. THAT’S NOT GOOD NEWS.”
“U.S. Census data released Thursday show that 21 of Michigan’s 83 counties have a median age of 50 years old or older, the highest in the nation.”18 LESS PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE BY MIKE WILKINSON AND SCHOOLS JUNE 20, 2019
6 MICHIGAN, ALREADY OLD, IS AGING FASTER THAN OTHER STATES
MICHIGAN’S POPULATION IS MICHIGANDERS ARE AGING FASTER ALREADY OLD
MEDIAN AGE RANKINGS19
UTAH ALASKA 20 TEXAS MICHIGAN POPULATION AGED 0-17 & AGED 65+ NORTH DAKOTA IDAHO CALIFORNIA NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA KANSAS GEORGIA LOUISIANA 2,500,000 COLORADO SOUTH DAKOTA MISSISSIPPI SENIORS WYOMING ARIZONA ARE GOING TO NEW MEXICO INDIANA WASHINGTON 2,000,000 OUTNUMBER ILLINOIS NEVADA NATIONAL AVERAGE MINNESOTA MINORS ARKANSAS VIRGINIA IOWA MISSOURI 1,500,000 BY 2025 NORTH CAROLINA NEW YORK MARYLAND TENNESSEE KENTUCKY 7 YEARS ALABAMA HAWAII SOUTH CAROLINA 1,000,000 BEFORE THE OREGON WISCONSIN NATIONAL AVERAGE OHIO MASSACHUSETTS NEW JERSEY 2010 2020 2030 2040 MICHIGAN MONTANA DELAWARE RHODE ISLAND PENNSYLVANIA CONNECTICUT FLORIDA WEST VIRGINIA POPULATION AGED 65+ POPULATION AGED 0-17 NEW HAMPSHIRE VERMONT MAINE 0 10 20 30 40 50 AGE
7 MICHIGAN IS ENTERING A NEGATIVE CYCLE
v AGING SLOWS BUSINESS AGING INCREASES HEALTH MICHIGAN IS LOSING FORMATION AND JOB GROWTH CARE COSTS YOUNG TALENT
BRAIN DRAIN (GAP IN PERCENT OF HIGHLY BUSINESS DYNAMISM RANKINGS (EIG)21 As Michigan ages, the cost of caring for its EDUCATED BETWEEN ENTRANTS AND LEAVERS)24 population will increase. The greatest risk factor for CALIFORNIA EIG’s ranking reflects the rate developing Alzheimer’s is old age. Health costs MASSACHUSETTS NEW YORK of new business formation, associated with Alzheimer’s disease alone will cost ILLINOIS MARYLAND frequency of labor market turnover, nearly $15 billion by 2025.22 NEW JERSEY VIRGINIA the geographic mobility of TEXAS COLORADO ADDING the workforce. OREGON NUMBER OF ALZHEIMER’S PATIENTS MAINE TALENT 23 WASHINGTON IN MICHIGAN (65+) ARIZONA 60 HAWAII GEORGIA MINNESOTA 220K NORTH CAROLINA 180K RHODE ISLAND 40 WYOMING UTAH NEW MEXICO CONNECTICUT ALASKA TENNESSEE 20 LOUISIANA FLORIDA ARKANSAS MONTANA SOUTH CAROLINA KANSAS 0 NEBRASKA VERMONT NV UT FL CO ND NTL MI WI IA PA OH KENTUCKY 2018 2025 NEVADA AVG OHIO ALABAMA MISSOURI JULY 29, 2019 MICHIGAN NEW HAMPSHIRE LOSING TED ROELOFS PENNSYLVANIA WEST VIRGINIA TALENT MICHIGAN INDIANA ALZHEIMER’S IN MICHIGAN: THE WISCONSIN RANKS OKLAHOMA IDAHO COMING STORM MISSISSIPPI IOWA SOUTH DAKOTA #43 DELAWARE NORTH DAKOTA -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
8 IMMIGRANTS CAN BREAK THE NEGATIVE CYCLE IN MICHIGAN
RECENT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRANTS START IMMIGRANTS CAN HELP FILL IMMIGRATION = DIFFERENCE ALREADY CONTRIBUTE NEW BUSINESSES26 THE HEALTH CARE LABOR GAP BETWEEN MODEST AND $1.9 BILLION TO MICHIGAN SERIOUS POPULATION 25 EACH YEAR DECLINE New jobs tend to come from new Across the U.S., and in Michigan The net economic impact of businesses, but business creation in specifically, there is a shortage of immigrants to Michigan includes Michigan is down. Immigrants are an doctors. By one estimate, Michigan Between 2018 and 2025, Michigan household income and tax exception. currently needs 1,000 more health will depend on 163,000 immigrants to prevent harmful population and contributions minus the cost of care professionals for areas workforce decline.30 services like schools, police representing 8.4 million residents. protection, and health care. MORE THAN The demand is expected to increase 28 as Michigan's population ages. WITH WITHOUT 33,000 IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION IMMIGRANTS MAKE UP A LARGE IMMIGRANT SHARE OF DOCTORS ENTREPRENEURS
across Michigan Even though -37,000 immigrants represent HAVE CREATED 6% of Michigan’s 167,000 population... NEW JOBS ...they make up 30% +$1.9B Immigrants are both more likely to MICHIGAN of Michigan’s have a degree in higher education doctors.29 and more likely to participate in the -200,000 workforce.27
9 TO APPRECIATE HOW RADICAL AND COSTLY RESTRICTIVE IMMIGRATION POLICIES ARE, COMPARE THEM TO WHAT MODERATE REPUBLICANS HAVE PROPOSED
The Business Roundtable is a non-partisan national trade group that generally supports Republican policies. It has proposed a balanced immigration plan that will help grow our population and workforce, in sharp contrast to 'restrictive' policies, which will accelerate negative trends nationwide -- but particularly in Michigan.31
NATIONAL IMPACT (10 YEARS) MICHIGAN IMPACT (10 YEARS) “TRUMP’S IMMIGRATION POLICIES THREATEN TO RESTRICTIVE RESTRICTIVE BRT PLAN BRT PLAN PLAN PLAN THWART ECONOMIC GROWTH”
+$831B -$640B +$16.7B -$10.3B GDP GDP GDP GDP “...[T]he Executive Orders... may have +8.4M -6.9M +177K -114.6K some impact on the work of Global JOBS JOBS JOBS JOBS Detroit to spark regional economic growth, job creation, and prosperity. They GDP JOBS GDP JOBS certainly send a signal to the global
1000 10 community that America may be wavering 20 200 from its historic role as the world’s most 800 8 150 +177K +831B +8.4M 15 +16.7B open economy, an unparalleled place of 600 6 refuge, and a welcoming culture open to 10 100 400 4 people of every religion, color, and creed.
200 2 5 50 Retreating from these positions will hurt $1.5T 15.3M $27B 292K 32 DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE our economy.” IN GDP IN JOBS 0 IN GDP 0 IN JOBS 0 0
-200 -2 -5 -50 BY STEVE TOBOCMAN, -400 -4 -10.3B -640B DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL DETROIT -6.9M -10 -100 -114.6K -600 -6 FEBRUARY 7TH, 2017
-15 -150 -800 -8
10 COUNTRIES CURRENTLY ON THE TRACK TRUMP RECOMMENDS ARE STRUGGLING
ITALY JAPAN POPULATION GROWTH BASED ON UN ESTIMATES, 201935
JAPAN -0.3 +0.04
ITALY -0.24 +0.12
NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH (%)
POPULATION GROWTH DUE TO MIGRATION (%)
The OECD predicts that Italy’s public debt The IMF reported that Japan’s aging Overall, Japan’s population to GDP ratio will rise from 133% to 144% population could decrease GDP growth decreased by .26% and by 2030 due to slow growth, low inflation, by one percentage point over the next Italy’s population decreased by .13%. and rising interest costs. Italy also has three decades. By 2040, experts predict a rapidly aging population, which will require that one in three Japanese people will more government spending and affect be over the age of 65. This would be the economic output.33 highest proportion in the world.34
11 WELL-RUN STATES AND CITIES ARE WELCOMING IMMIGRANTS
Launched in 2009, Welcoming America supports communities by creating a network of governments, organizations, and individuals and providing them with the tools and resources they need to support immigrants. Welcoming Economies Global Network is a regional network of organizations across the Midwest.36
Global Detroit is a part of the Welcoming America network. Over the past decade, Global Detroit has advocated for immigrant-inclusive policies and programs ITHACA by matching recent graduates with employment opportunities, facilitating the provision of loans and grants DETROIT BUFFALO to immigrant-owned businesses, and attracting new investment into immigrant-dense communities such as 37 DES MOINES CLEVELAND Banglatown, East Davison Village and Southwest Detroit.
DAYTON PITTSBURGH DETROIT'S RANK MOST WELCOMING ST. LOUIS CINCINNATI TO IMMIGRANTS OUT OF THE 100 LARGEST CITIES #10 ACCORDING TO THE NAE CITIES INDEX38
12 ENDNOTES
1. Smith, Noah. “Demographic Decline Is the Real Threat to the U.S.” Bloomberg News, April 10, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti- 22. Roelofs, Ted. "Alzheimer’s in Michigan: The coming storm." Bridge Magazine, July 29, 2019. https://www.bridgemi.com/michi- cles/2019-04-10/trump-says-u-s-is-full-but-demographic-decline-is-real-threat gan-health-watch/alzheimers-michigan-coming-storm
2. Business Roundtable. “How the Future of American Immigration Can Impact the Economy.” https://www.businessroundtable.org/policy-per- 23. 2019 Alzheimer's Disease Facts and Figures. Chicago: Alzheimer’s Association, 2019. https://www.alz.org/media/Documents/alzheimers- spectives/immigration/how-the-future-of-american-immigration-can-make-or-break-the-economy-2 facts-and-figures-2019-r.pdf
3. New American Economy. “Map the Impact." https://www.newamericaneconomy.org/locations/ 24. United States Congress Joint Economic Committee. “Losing Our Minds: Brain Drain across the United States.” April 24, 2019. https://www.jec. senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2019/4/losing-our-minds-brain-drain-across-the-united-states 4. Business Roundtable. “How the Future of American Immigration Can Impact the Economy.” https://www.businessroundtable.org/policy-per- spectives/immigration/how-the-future-of-american-immigration-can-make-or-break-the-economy-2 25. New American Economy. “Map the Impact." https://www.newamericaneconomy.org/locations/
5. Smith, Noah. “Demographic Decline Is the Real Threat to the U.S.” Bloomberg News, April 10, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti- 26. Ibid. cles/2019-04-10/trump-says-u-s-is-full-but-demographic-decline-is-real-threat 27. Ibid. 6. Index Mundi. “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita – country ranking.” Accessed 2019. https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/ER.H2O.INTR.PC/rankings 28. Bureau of Health Workforce, Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA). "Designated Health Professional Shortage Areas Statis- tics." U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, June 30, 2019. https://data.hrsa.gov/Default/GenerateHPSAQuarterlyReport 7. Statistics Times. “List of countries by population density.” Accessed 2019. 29. Partnership for a New American Economy. The Contributions of New Americans in Michigan. New York: New American Economy, August 3, 8. United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. “Agricultural Trade.” Last modified August 20, 2019. https://www.ers. 2016. http://www.globaldetroit.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PNAE-Michigan-Final-Report.pdf usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/agricultural-trade/ 30. Haglund, Rick. “Michigan is running out of workers. That’s bad news for the economy.” Michigan Advance, April 27, 2019. https://www.michi- 9. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2019. January 24, 2019. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ ganadvance.com/2019/04/27/rick-haglund-michigan-is-running-out-of-workers-thats-bad-news-for-the-economy/
10. Smith, Noah. “Demographic Decline Is the Real Threat to the U.S.” Bloomberg News, April 10, 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti- 31. Business Roundtable. “How the Future of American Immigration Can Impact the Economy.” https://www.businessroundtable.org/policy-per- cles/2019-04-10/trump-says-u-s-is-full-but-demographic-decline-is-real-threat spectives/immigration/how-the-future-of-american-immigration-can-make-or-break-the-economy-2
11. Metzger, Kurt, and the University of Michigan. 32. Tobocman, Steve. "Trump’s Immigration Policies Threaten to Thwart Economic Growth." Xconomy, February 7th, 2017. https://xconomy.com/ detroit-ann-arbor/2017/02/07/trumps-immigration-policies-threaten-to-thwart-economic-growth/ 12. Ozimek, Adam, Kenan Fikri, and John Lettieri. From Managing Decline to Building the Future: Could a Heartland Visa Help Struggling Re- gions? Washington, DC: Economic Innovation Group, April 2019. https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Heartland-Visas-Report.pdf 33. Romei, Valentina. “Italy’s public debt set to rise again amid lack of growth.” Financial Times, April 1, 2019. https://www.ft.com/content/ee- 85c9ea-5492-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1 13. Montes, Joshua. “CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates.” Working Paper, Congressional Budget Office, March 2018. https:// www.cbo.gov/publication/53616 34. Romei, Valentina. “How Japan’s ageing population is shrinking GDP.” Financial Times, May 16, 2018. https://www.ft.com/content/7ce47bd0- 545f-11e8-b3ee-41e0209208ec 14. de Rugy, Veronique. “How Many Workers Support One Social Security Retiree?” Mercatus Center, May 22, 2012. https://www.mercatus.org/ publication/how-many-workers-support-one-social-security-retiree 35. Worldometers. “Countries in the world by population (2019).” Accessed May 10, 2019. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/pop- ulation-by-country/ 15. Noble, Breana. “Services strained as census shows Michigan is now 12th oldest state in nation.” Detroit News, June 23, 2019 (updated June 24, 2019). https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/06/24/michigan-ages-faster-than-nation-census-shows-services-st- 36. Welcoming Economies Global Network. https://www.weglobalnetwork.org/ rained/1514838001/ 37. Global Detroit. "Mobilizing Detroit’s Immigrant Potential: 2018 Impact Report." April, 2019. http://www.globaldetroit.com/wp-content/up- 16. Fulton, George A., and Donald R. Grimes. “Demographic and Economic Outlook for Michigan and Its Counties to 2045: 5 Lessons for Planning loads/2019/04/2018-Impact-Report-final-5.pdf over the Next 3 Decades.” Presentation delivered at REMI Users’ Conference, Charleston, SC, October 26, 2017. http://www.remi.com/wp-con- tent/uploads/2017/11/REMI_Users_Conference_2017.pdf. 38. New American Economy. "NAE Cities Index." https://www.newamericaneconomy.org/cities-index/
17. Wilkinson, Mike. “Michigan is No. 1! At getting old. That’s not good news.” Bridge Magazine, June 20, 2019. https://www.bridgemi.com/econo- my/michigan-no-1-getting-old-thats-not-good-news
18. Ibid.
19. United States Census Bureau. https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml
20. Laitner, Bill. “Michigan is aging faster than the rest of the U.S. — here's why.” Detroit Free Press, June 8, 2018 (updated June 10, 2018). https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/wayne/2018/06/08/michiganders-100-years-old-senior-tide-coming-first-michi- gan-2025/675828002/
21. Economic Innovation Group. “Index of State Dynamism.” May, 2017. https://eig.org/index-state-dynamism
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