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Of Real GDP in Canada and Saskatchewan ($2002 Chained) 1981 = 100 250

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Of Real GDP in Canada and Saskatchewan ($2002 Chained) 1981 = 100 250 1 The Current and Future Contribution of the Aboriginal Community to the Economy of Saskatchewan Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director Centre for the Study of Living Standards Saskatchewan Association of Health Organizations Career Pathing Pilot Project Symposium October 8-9, 2008 Saskatoon, Saskatchewan 2 Outline I. Background A. Historical and Current State of the Economy of Saskatchewan B. Forecast for the Economy of Saskatchewan II. Aboriginal People in Saskatchewan I. General Background II. Labour Market Outcomes based on Census Data III. Recent Labour MarketTrends in the Western Provinces III. Estimating the Effect of Increased Aboriginal Educational Attainment on the Saskatchewan Labour Market 3 Population of Saskatchewan as a Share of the National Population, 1901-2007 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Statistics Canada, Historical Statistics and Population Statistics. Between 1901 and 1971, data is available only for census years. Between censuses, population levels were interpolated linearly. 4 Average Annual Population Growth by Component in Saskatchewan, 1971- 1979, 1980-1979, 1990-1999, 2000-2006 and 2007 20,000 Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Migration Net International Migration Total Population Increase 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 1971-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2006 2007 Source: Statistics CanadaPopulation Statistics. 5 Index of Employment in Canada and Saskatchewan 1981 = 100 160 140 120 100 80 1981 = 100= 1981 60 Canada Saskatchewan 40 20 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey 6 Employment in Saskatchewan as a Share of Employment in Canada, 1981- 2007 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Per Cent Per 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey 7 Index of Real GDP in Canada and Saskatchewan ($2002 chained) 1981 = 100 250 200 150 1981 = 100= 1981 100 50 Canada Saskatchewan 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts 8 Real GDP in Saskatchewan as a Share of Real GDP in Canada ($2002 chained), 1981-2007 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 Per Cent Per 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts 9 Provincial GDP per worker as a percentage of national average, per cent current dollars, 2006 160.0 144.2 140.0 132.2 120.0 105.0 100.0 98.1 100.0 93.7 87.3 86.4 82.9 81.3 80.0 72.3 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Alta. Nfld. Sask. Canada Ont. B.C. Man. Que. N.S. N.B. P.E.I. Source: Provincial Economic Accounts and Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada. 10 Labour Force Growth (15+) in Saskatchewan, 1977-2031 Thousands of persons 20 15 Projections (2008-2031) 10 5 0 -5 -10 Actual data (1977-2007) -15 Source: Labour force estimates for 1976-2007 from Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey; for 2008-2026 from Statistics Canada, Population Estimates and Projections. Note: Projected labour force estimates are calculated by multiplying projected population with the 2007 labour force participation rates for the 15-44 age group, the 45- 64 age group and the 65 and over age group. 11 Employment Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009 3 2007 2008 2009 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2 1.9 1.6 1.5 Per Cent Per 1 0.5 0 Canada Saskatchewan Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. 12 Real GDP Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009 4 3.8 3.7 2007 2008 2009 3.5 3 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2 Per Cent Per 1.5 1.4 1 0.5 0 Canada Saskatchewan Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. 13 Unemployment Rate Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009 7.0 6.5 6.3 2007 2008 2009 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.8 Per Cent Per 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Canada Saskatchewan Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal 14 Population in Canada, 2006 Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal Population in Canada, 2006 Share of the Aboriginal Proportion of the Proportion of the Population in Total Canadian Population Aboriginal Population Population Canada 100.0 100.0 3.8 Atlantic Canada 7.2 5.7 3.0 Quebec 23.8 9.2 1.5 Ontario 38.5 20.7 2.0 Western Canada 30.1 59.8 7.5 Manitoba 3.6 15.0 15.5 Saskatchewan 3.1 12.1 14.9 Alberta 10.4 16.1 5.8 British Columbia 13.0 16.7 4.8 Territories 0.3 4.5 52.8 Yukon Territory 0.1 0.6 25.1 Northwest Territories 0.1 1.8 50.3 Nunavut 0.1 2.1 85.0 Source: Census 2006 Tabulations Distribution of Aboriginal Identity Population in Saskatchewan, in per 15 cent, 2006 Off-Reserve First Métis, 33.9 Nations, 30.8 Other, 1.7 On-Reserve First Nations, 33.7 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 16 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Industries, 2001 16.0 Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 14.0 12.0 11.3 10.0 9.7 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Public Health care and Retail trade Manufacturing Accommodation Construction Educational Agriculture, Transportation administration social assistance and food services services forestry, fishing and warehousing and hunting Source: Census 2001 17 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Occupations, 2001 30.0 Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.3 5.0 3.4 0.0 Sales and Trades, Business, Social science, Primary Management Processing, Health Natural and Art, culture, service transport and finance and education, industry occupations manufacturing occupations applied recreation and equipment administration government and utilities sciences sport operators service and religion Source: Census 2001 18 Aboriginal Population Growth in Saskatchewan and Canada by Age, 2001- 2017 140.0 120.0 117.6 111.4 Saskatchewan Canada 100.0 80.0 64.9 Per Cent Per 60.0 46.6 42.9 41.0 40.0 33.1 25.1 26.3 20.0 15.7 0.0 Total 0-14 15-24 25-64 65+ Source: Statistics Canada, Product 91-547-XIE2005001 19 Employment Rates of Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, 2006 90 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 80 70 60 50 Per Cent Per 40 30 20 10 0 Total No certificate, Certificate, diploma High school Apprenticeship or College, CEGEP University diploma or degree or degree certificate or trades certificate or or other non- certificate, diploma equivalent diploma university certificate or degree or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 20 Employment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2006 120 Canada Saskatchewan 100 80 60 Per Cent Per 40 20 0 Total No certificate, Certificate, High school Apprenticeship or College, CEGEP University diploma or degree diploma or degree certificate or trades certificate or or other non- certificate, diploma equivalent diploma university certificate or degree or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 21 Unemployment Rates of Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, 2006 30 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 25 20 15 Per Cent Per 10 5 0 Total No certificate, Certificate, High school Apprenticeship or College, CEGEP University diploma or degree diploma or degree certificate or trades certificate or or other non- certificate, diploma equivalent diploma university certificate or degree or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 22 Unemployment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2006 500 Canada Saskatchewan 450 400 350 300 250 Per Cent Per 200 150 100 50 0 Total No certificate, Certificate, High school Apprenticeship or College, CEGEP University diploma or degree diploma or degree certificate or trades certificate or or other non- certificate, diploma equivalent diploma university certificate or degree or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 23 High School non-Completion Rate for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Populations Aged 15+, Canada and Provinces, 2006 60 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 50 40 30 Per Cent Per 20 10 0 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 24 High School non-Completion Rates for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Populations aged 15+, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2001 and 2006 60 2001 2006 50 40 30 Per Cent Per 20 10 0 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census and 2001 Census. Note: The Census definitions of educational attainment were changed between the 2001 and 2006 Census so changes should be interpreted with caution. For more details, see http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/reference/infocensus/education.cfm 25 Proportion of the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Population Aged 15+ With University Education*, Canada and Provinces, 2006 30 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 25 20 15 Per Cent Per 10 5 0 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. *Includes university certificate or diploma below bachelor level as well as universtity degrees.
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