Of Real GDP in Canada and Saskatchewan ($2002 Chained) 1981 = 100 250

The Current and Future Contribution of the Aboriginal Community to the Economy of Saskatchewan

Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director Centre for the Study of Living Standards Saskatchewan Association of Health Organizations Career Pathing Pilot Project Symposium October 8-9, 2008 Saskatoon, Saskatchewan 2 Outline

I. Background A. Historical and Current State of the Economy of Saskatchewan B. Forecast for the Economy of Saskatchewan

II. Aboriginal People in Saskatchewan I. General Background II. Labour Market Outcomes based on Census Data III. Recent Labour MarketTrends in the Western Provinces

III. Estimating the Effect of Increased Aboriginal Educational Attainment on the Saskatchewan Labour Market 3 Population of Saskatchewan as a Share of the National Population, 1901-2007 10

0 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: Statistics Canada, Historical Statistics and Population Statistics. Between 1901 and 1971, data is available only for census years. Between censuses, population levels were interpolated linearly. 4 Average Annual Population Growth by Component in Saskatchewan, 1971- 1979, 1980-1979, 1990-1999, 2000-2006 and 2007 20,000 Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Migration

Net International Migration Total Population Increase 15,000

10,000

5,000

-5,000

-10,000 1971-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2006 2007

Source: Statistics CanadaPopulation Statistics. 5 Index of Employment in Canada and Saskatchewan 1981 = 100 160

140

120

100

80 1981 = 100 = 1981 60 Canada Saskatchewan 40

0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey 6 Employment in Saskatchewan as a Share of Employment in Canada, 1981- 2007 4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Per Cent Per 2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey 7 Index of Real GDP in Canada and Saskatchewan ($2002 chained) 1981 = 100 250

200

150 1981 = 100 = 1981 100

Canada Saskatchewan

0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts 8 Real GDP in Saskatchewan as a Share of Real GDP in Canada ($2002 chained), 1981-2007 3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

Per Cent Per 2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, Provincial Economic Accounts 9 Provincial GDP per worker as a percentage of national average,

per cent current dollars, 2006

160.0 144.2 140.0 132.2

120.0 105.0 100.0 98.1 100.0 93.7 87.3 86.4 82.9 81.3 80.0 72.3

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0 Alta. Nfld. Sask. Canada Ont. B.C. Man. Que. N.S. N.B. P.E.I.

Source: Provincial Economic Accounts and Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada. 10 Labour Force Growth (15+) in Saskatchewan, 1977-2031

Thousands of persons 20

15 Projections (2008-2031)

-5

-10 Actual data (1977-2007)

-15

Source: Labour force estimates for 1976-2007 from Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey; for 2008-2026 from Statistics Canada, Population Estimates and Projections. Note: Projected labour force estimates are calculated by multiplying projected population with the 2007 labour force participation rates for the 15-44 age group, the 45- 64 age group and the 65 and over age group. 11 Employment Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009

2007 2008 2009

2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2 1.9

1.6

1.5 Per Cent Per

0.5

0 Canada Saskatchewan Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. 12 Real GDP Growth Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009

4 3.8 3.7 2007 2008 2009 3.5

3 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5

2 Per Cent Per

1.5 1.4

0.5

0 Canada Saskatchewan Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. 13 Unemployment Rate Forecast* for Canada and Saskatchewan, 2007-2009

7.0 6.5 6.3 2007 2008 2009 6.0 6.0

5.0

4.2 4.0 4.0 3.8

Per Cent Per 3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0 Canada Saskatchewan Source: RBC Provincial Outlook, July 2008. *Actual estimates for 2007. Forecast for 2008 and 2009. Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal 14 Population in Canada, 2006

Geographic Distribution of Aboriginal Population in Canada, 2006

Share of the Aboriginal Proportion of the Proportion of the Population in Total Canadian Population Aboriginal Population Population

Canada 100.0 100.0 3.8 Atlantic Canada 7.2 5.7 3.0 Quebec 23.8 9.2 1.5 Ontario 38.5 20.7 2.0 Western Canada 30.1 59.8 7.5 Manitoba 3.6 15.0 15.5 Saskatchewan 3.1 12.1 14.9 Alberta 10.4 16.1 5.8 British Columbia 13.0 16.7 4.8 Territories 0.3 4.5 52.8 Yukon Territory 0.1 0.6 25.1 Northwest Territories 0.1 1.8 50.3 Nunavut 0.1 2.1 85.0 Source: Census 2006 Tabulations Distribution of Aboriginal Identity Population in Saskatchewan, in per 15 cent, 2006

Off-Reserve First Métis, 33.9 Nations, 30.8

Other, 1.7 On-Reserve First Nations, 33.7

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 16 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Industries, 2001 16.0 Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 14.0

12.0 11.3

10.0 9.7

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0 Public Health care and Retail trade Manufacturing Accommodation Construction Educational Agriculture, Transportation administration social assistance and food services services forestry, fishing and warehousing and hunting Source: Census 2001 17 Share of Aboriginal and Non-aboriginal Labour Force in Saskatchewan for Selected Occupations, 2001 30.0

Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.3 5.0 3.4

0.0 Sales and Trades, Business, Social science, Primary Management Processing, Health Natural and Art, culture, service transport and finance and education, industry occupations manufacturing occupations applied recreation and equipment administration government and utilities sciences sport operators service and religion

Source: Census 2001 18 Aboriginal Population Growth in Saskatchewan and Canada by Age, 2001- 2017 140.0

120.0 117.6 111.4 Saskatchewan Canada 100.0

80.0

64.9

Per Cent Per 60.0 46.6 42.9 41.0 40.0 33.1 25.1 26.3 20.0 15.7

0.0 Total 0-14 15-24 25-64 65+ Source: Statistics Canada, Product 91-547-XIE2005001 19 Employment Rates of Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, 2006 90 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 80

Per Cent Per 40

0 Total No certificate, Certificate, diploma High school Apprenticeship or College, CEGEP University diploma or degree or degree certificate or trades certificate or or other non- certificate, diploma equivalent diploma university certificate or degree or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 20 Employment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2006 120 Canada Saskatchewan

100

60 Per Cent Per

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 21 Unemployment Rates of Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals by Educational Attainment, Saskatchewan, 2006 30 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 25

15 Per Cent Per

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 22 Unemployment Rate of Aboriginals as a Proportion of the Rate for non- Aboriginals, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2006 500 Canada Saskatchewan 450

400

350

300

250 Per Cent Per 200

150

100

0 Total No certificate, Certificate, High school Apprenticeship or College, CEGEP University diploma or degree diploma or degree certificate or trades certificate or or other non- certificate, diploma equivalent diploma university certificate or degree or diploma Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 23 High School non-Completion Rate for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Populations Aged 15+, Canada and Provinces, 2006 60

Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal 50

30 Per Cent Per

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 24 High School non-Completion Rates for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Populations aged 15+, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2001 and 2006 60

2001 2006 50

30 Per Cent Per

0 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal

Canada Saskatchewan Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census and 2001 Census. Note: The Census definitions of educational attainment were changed between the 2001 and 2006 Census so changes should be interpreted with caution. For more details, see http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/reference/infocensus/education.cfm 25 Proportion of the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Population Aged 15+ With University Education*, Canada and Provinces, 2006 30 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal

15 Per Cent Per

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. *Includes university certificate or diploma below bachelor level as well as universtity degrees. 26 Proportion of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Population (15+) With a University Degree, Canada and Saskatchewan, 2001 and 2006 20

18 2001 2006 16

0 Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Aboriginal

Canada Saskatchewan

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census. 27 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population as a Share of Total Population (15+) in Saskatchewan, by Labour Force Status, 2007 25.0

21.8

20.0

15.0 Per Cent Per 10.0 8.0 7.4 6.7

5.0

0.0 Population Labour Force Employed Unemployed Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 28 Labour Market Outcomes of Off-Reserves Aboriginals in Saskatchewan, by Aboriginal Identity, 2007 80.0 First Nations Métis 70.1 70.0 62.9 60.0 57.4

50.0 48.4

40.0 Per Cent Per

30.0

20.0 15.7 10.3 10.0

0.0 Unemployment rate Participation rate Emp/pop ratio Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 29 Shares of Population (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, Off-Reserve Aboriginal by Aboriginal Identity, 2007 100.0

90.0 29.5 Completed post-secondary education 80.0 37.4 High School Graduate or Some Post-Secondary 70.0 Less than high school 60.0 29.9 50.0

29.8 Per Cent Per 40.0

30.0

20.0 40.6 32.8 10.0

0.0 First Nations Métis Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 30 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Participation Rate in Western Provinces, 2007 76.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) 74.2 74.0 72.4 72.0

70.2 69.8 70.0 69.7

68.0 67.3 66.3

Per Cent Per 66.0 65.6 65.1 64.4 64.0

62.0

60.0

58.0 Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 31 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Unemployment Rate in Western Provinces, 2007 14.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) 12.5 12.0

10.0 9.7 9.5 9.3

8.0 7.7

Per Cent Per 6.0

4.1 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.3

2.0

0.0 Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 32 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Employment Rate in Western Provinces, 2007 80.0 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+) Non-Aboriginal Population (15+) 71.7 70.0 67.1 67.0 67.7 66.8 63.6 60.9 59.5 58.8 60.0 56.4

50.0

40.0 Per Cent Per

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0 Western Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 33 Recent Participation Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), 2004-2007 72 70.2 70 69.5 68.6 68.6 68

66 Off-Reserve Aboriginal 64.5 Non-Aboriginal 64.4 64

62.0

Per Cent Per 62 60.2 60

54 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 34 Recent Unemployment Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), 2004-2007 18

16.0 16.1 16 14.6

14 12.5 12 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 10

Per Cent Per 8

6 4.6 4.3 3.9 4 3.5

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 35 Recent Employment Rate Trends in Saskatchewan, Non-Aboriginal Population and Off-Reserve Aboriginal Population (15+), 2004-2007 70 67.7 66.8 65.4 65.6 65

60 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal 56.4 55.1 55

Pe r Cent r Pe 52.0 50.6 50

40 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 36 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Participation Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, 2004-2007 85.0 82.6 81.2 82.0 79.0 80.0 81.5

77.9 75.0 76.4 Less than high school 70.0 High school graduate 68.8 65.0 Completed post-secondary education

60.0 Per Cent Per 55.0

50.0

43.6 45.0 42.5 41.4 39.8 40.0

35.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 37 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Unemployment Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, 2004-2007 30.0 28.2 26.8

25.0 23.8 Less than high school 22.0 High school graduate Completed post-secondary education 20.0

15.0 14.1 13.2

Per Cent Per 11.8

9.6 10.0 10.7 10.9 8.6 7.8 5.0

0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 38 Off-Reserve Aboriginal Employment Rate (15+) by Highest Level of Educational Attainment in Saskatchewan, 2004-2007 85.0

74.3 75.0 73.7 73.0 72.9

71.9 70.4 65.0 66.3 Less than high school High school graduate 59.2 Completed post-secondary education

55.0 Per Cent Per

45.0

34.0 35.0 31.6 30.5 29.1

25.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). 39

Summary of Aboriginal Labour Force Projections, by Scenario and by Province, 2001-2017 Percentage Change in Contribution to Total Percentage of Percentage of Labour Aboriginal Labour Force, Labour Force Growth, 2001- Labour Force Force in 2017 2001-2017 2017, per cent in 2001

Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 - Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Atlantic 42.0 43.2 9.5 9.7 2.15 2.79 2.81 Quebec 10.3 15.3 0.7 1.1 1.08 1.03 1.08 Ontario 32.1 51.0 1.5 2.4 1.44 1.46 1.67 Manitoba 47.6 71.0 28.6 42.8 10.13 12.80 14.84 Saskatchewan 60.5 104.5 128.3 221.5 8.76 13.50 17.20 Alberta 54.9 77.5 7.6 10.7 4.12 4.91 5.63 British 3.82 3.76 3.91 Columbia 27.4 32.2 3.6 4.2 Territories 49.7 78.8 100.4 159.2 40.88 50.89 60.78 Canada 41.7 53.6 5.8 7.4 2.73 3.23 3.50 40

Summary of Aboriginal Employment Projections, by Scenario and by Province, 2001-2017 Percentage of Percentage Change in Contribution to the Percentage of Employment Aboriginal Employment, Employment Growth, per Employment in 2017 in 2001 2001-2017 cent Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 - Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Atlantic 42.0 72.4 7.9 13.6 1.8 2.3 2.8 Quebec 10.3 30.9 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 Ontario 32.1 55.3 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 Manitoba 47.6 101.7 24.7 52.7 8.7 11.0 15.1 Saskatchewan 60.5 152.7 105.6 266.4 7.2 11.1 17.5 Alberta 54.9 98.7 6.8 12.2 3.7 4.4 5.7 British Columbia 27.4 57.0 3.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.9 Territories 49.7 110.1 91.0 201.6 37.0 46.1 64.7 Canada 41.7 76.4 4.17 7.64 2.4 2.7 3.4 41 Thank You

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