California State University, Northridge Stabilizing The

CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE

STABILIZING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF PALMDALE, CALIFORNIA AN APPLIED ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY STUDY

A thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Geography by LaMoyne Berger Kinzell

May, 1982 The Thesis of LaMoyne Berger Kinzell is approved:

Chairman

California State University, Northridge

ii To my mother

; ; ; ACKNOvJLEDG~1ENTS

This thesis would not have been written without the encourage ment and assistance of a number of individuals. r~y thanks to the research librarians of the Palmdale City Library and Los Angeles County Public Library in Lancaster for their assistance in finding historical and statistical works; to Diane Hamill, my real estate agent-friend, who guided me through the complexities of real estate information; and to the numerous public agencies of Palmdale and Lancaster who shared their reports and statistics with me.

~1y gratitude and love to my long-suffering family as I struggled with the compiling of statistics and writing of this thesis: my hus band, Les, for proofreading and endless encouragement; my children, Yvette, Anitra, and Antony, for assisting me with the field surveys. A special acknowledgment is due my advisor, Or. David Hornbeck. His guidance, advice, encouragement and good humor have been invalu able.

iv Table of Contents

Dedication iii Acknowledgments iv List of Tables vii List of Figures xi

List of ~1aps xii Abstract xiii Chapter I Introduction 1 Scope and Study Area Methodology and Data Literature Review Organization Chapter II Population and Commercial Development Early Development: 1884-1951 Growth Period: 1950-1980 Chapter III Population and Occupations 25 Summary Chapter IV Economic Base and Transportation 44 Economic Base Transportation Patterns Fiscal Structure Summary Chapter V Future Growth Trends 72 Population, Housing and Employment Trends Expansion Plans and Employee Skill Requirements

v @ .

Summary

Chapter VI Residential and Commercial Land Use 93 Proposed Land Use Potential Land Use

Chapter VII Conclusion 112

Bibliography 117

Appendix A 124

Appendix B 125

Appendix C 130

vi List of Tables

2-1 Service and Retail Activities 15 Palmdale - 1930 3-1 Population Changes of Antelope Valley Communities - 26 1975 to 1980 3-2 Population Growth - 1970 to 1980 27 Palmdale-Lancaster Areas 3-3 Years of Residence 28 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-4 Housing Unit Growth - 1970 to 1980 30 Palmdale-Lancaster Areas 3-5 Type of Housing - 1980 30 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-6 Residential Building Permits 31 Palmdale - 1970 to 1980 3-7 Age Structure of Adult Population - 1980 32 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-8 Education Levels - 1980 35 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley Residents 3-9 Occupational Type Profile - 1980 36 Palmdale-Lancaster 3-10 Place of Work - 1980 38 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-11 Local Shopping Area - 1980 38 Palmdale-Lancaster

vii 3-12 Shopping Trip Frequency - 1980 39 Palmdale-Lancaster 3-13 Merchandise Types - 1980 40 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 4-1 Agriculture Production - 1960 to 1978 46 Los Angeles Portion of Antelope Valley 4-2 Aviation Activities - 1979 49 Antelope Valley 4-3 Employment by Industry - 1959 to 1977 50 Palmdale-Lancaster Labor Market Area 4-4 Percent Employment by Industry - 1980 53 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 4-5 Employment Distribution by Industry - 1980 55 Antelope Valley 4-6 Number of Employees by Percent Employers - 1980 54 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 4-7 Distribution of Firms by Annual Payroll - 1980 56 Palmdale-Lancaster 4-8 Percent of Payroll Paid to Employees Residing Outside 57 City of Employment - 1980 Palmdale-Lancaster 4-9 Average Daily Traffic California State Highways - 60 1970 to 1979 4-10 24-Hour Traffic Volumes on Selected County and City 62 Roads - 1965 to 1980 4-11 Financial Institution Activity - 1975 to 1979 66 Palmdale-Lancaster

viii 4-12 Growth of Tax Revenues - 1964 to 1980 67 Palmdale 5-1 Population Trends and Forecast 73 Palmdale, Sphere of Influence, Antelope Valley - 1970 to 1990 5-2 Housing Trends and Forecast 75 Palmdale, Sphere of Influence, Antelope Valley - 1970 to 1990 5-3 Employment Growth Trends 76 Palmdale-Lancaster Labor Market Area - 1959 to 1980 5-4 Employment Growth by Industry 78 Antelope Valley - 1980 to 1985 5-5 Business Employment Growth by Industry 79 Palmdale - 1980 to 1985 5-6 Planned Expansion of Existing Firms 81 Antelope Valley - 1981 5-7 Employee Skills Needed by Employers 82 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 5-8 Employee Skill Needs by Industry Group 83 Antelope Valley 5-9 Employee Skills Needed by Industry Group 84 Palmdale 5-10 Business Generated Passenger Air Travel by Airport 85 of Origin 5-11 Air Freight Service Demand - 1980 86 5-12 Frequency of Air Freight Use by Industry 88

ix 5-13 Number of Business Trips Requiring Air Transportation 89 by Industry - 1980 5-14 Percentage of Yearly Production Shipped by Air Freight 90 Users - 1980 6-1 Single-Family Housing 95 Palmdale - 1980 to 1981 6-2 Multi-Family Housing 97 Palmdale - 1980 to 1981 6-3 Residential Growth Areas 98 Palmdale - 1980 to 1981 6-4 Traffic Volume - 1981 102 Palmdale 6-5 Public Transportation Schedule - 1981 104 Palmdale 6-6 Potential Growth Area Zoning 105 Retail and Service Activities 6-7 Potential Growth Area Zoning 109 Manufacturing

X List of Figures

Fig.

2-1 Population Trend of Palmdale From 1900 to 1980 14

3-1 Income Distribution - 1980 34 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-2 Employment Profile - 1980 37 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley

4-1 Antelope Valley Trends - 1965 to 1980 70 5-1 Population Growth - 1970 to 1990 74

xi List of Maps

1 Antelope Valley Topography 3

2 Study Area 4

3 Pioneer Towns and Roads 11

4 New Palmdale, 1892 13 5 Palmdale Airport and Plant 42 17 6 Commercial Expansion 18 Palmdale, 1950 - 1980 7 Palmdale Zoning Map 20 8 The Commercial Structure of Palmdale - 1980 130 Appendix C

9 Residential Areas of Palmdale 29

10 Antelope Valley Aerospace Bases 48 11 Antelope Valley Traffic Volume - 1979 59

12 Palmdale Traffic Volume - 1979 64

13 Palmdale Residential Expansion 94 1980 - 1981 14 Proposed Commercial Areas 100 15 Palmdale Traffic Volume and Flow - 1981 103

16 Potential Commercial and Industrial Areas 106

xii ABSTRACT

STABILIZING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF

PAU~DALE, CALIFORNIA AN APPLIED ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY STUDY Geography by Lal1oyne Berger Kinzell

This thesis investigates the types of commercial and industrial activities that would best expand and stabilize the economic base of Palmdale and the surrounding region. There are two objectives. The first is an economic assessment of Palmdale revealing the city's cur rent economic picture. The second formulates a land-use plan for Palmdale and develops forecasts of population and employment growth.

Multiple data sources w~re utilized. Data on the economic char acteristics of Antelope Valley and Palmdale were accumulated from government documents and survey questionnaires of households and em ployers. By cross tabulation and frequency distribution of data, the economic base of the Valley and Palmdale was determined. Physical sur veys were conducted of the commercial-industrial activities, resident ial areas and traffic volume of Palmdale. These data were coded, tab-

xiii ulated and mapped giving the current land-use picture of the city. Historical profiles combined with the household and employer survey results developep forecasts of population and employment growth. Data present a current picture of Palmdale as the manufacturing center of the Valley with a dramatic population growth in the last decade. Analysis indicates Palmdale has not kept pace with population growth in housing and retail-service activities. Projections indicate major expansion in population and employment for Antelope Valley and Palmdale over the next decade which will create demands for additional retail-service activities. Commercial, manufacturing and residential expansion zones are proposed in an effort to expand and stabilize Palmdale's economic base. Regional planning by the Valley's two leading cities, Palmdale and Lancaster, is suggested as a method of stabilizing Palmdale's economic base. With regional planning, Palmdale could expand manufacturing and develop these retail and service businesses which would best serve the local needs.

xiv CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

Antelope Valley and its communities have been economically by passed in the past. Historically, the Valley's economic growth has depended upon two principal industries, agriculture and aerospace. Cyclical activity in these industries has resulted in a notable eco nomic lag. However, over the past ten years, the region has become more urbanized and economically diversified, leading to a reasonably stable population and economic growth rate. In recent years local officials and business groups of Palmdale have made impressive strides in the promotion and development of the community's commercial and industrial facilities. The completion of a new freeway linking Los Angeles with the Valley since 1973 has been the main focal point of this development. An indepth study of this rapidly expanding area is needed at this time. The future economic growth of Antelope Valley and Palmdale, in particular, is directly related to the expansion of existing industries, the development of new businesses, and the influx of population. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the types of commercial and industrial activ ities that would best expand and stabilize the economic base of Palmdale and the surrounding region. Scope and Study Area Antelope Valley, a 2500 square mile agriculture and industrial region, is situated an hour's drive northeast of metropolitan Los Angeles. Roughly triangular in shape, this high desert plain is

1 2 bounded by the San Gabriel Mountain range to the south, the Tehachapi Mountains ranging to the north and west, and desert buttes on the east (Map 1). Palmdale, a city of approximately 12,000 people, is located near the southern boundary of the Valley. The incorporated city of Palmdale cannot be studied as a separ ate entity. It must be regarded as a vital and expanding community of Antelope Valley as a whole. Therefore, although Palmdale is the focal point of this study, its sphere of influence1 is much greater than its boundaries indicate (Map 2). The study area includes all commercial and industrial activities within the incorporated boundaries of Palmdale. These boundaries are Avenues M and S on the north and south respectively and transversely lOth Street on the west and 40th Street to the east. Comparative studies of the Valley as a whole have also been conducted regarding the economic and population development. Temporally, the study encompasses the years 1960 to 1980. Methodology and Data This thesis has two objectives. The first is an economic assessment of Palmdale to reveal the city's current economic picture. Multiple data sources have been used. Material on population, employment, housing, tax revenue, education and transportation have been gathered from government documents. Analyzed and evaluated, these data indicate the economic characteristics of Antelope Valley and Palmdale during the time period of 1960 to 1980. Data have been accumulated based on surveys of households and employers. Household data have been generated by Stratified Random Digit Dialing. 2 This technique has been utilized by the Los Angeles County Planning Group and designed to represent the total Antelope 3

Map 1: TOPOGRAPHY OF ANTELOPE VALLEY

Jill 1/ LOS ANGELES ,,J

PACIFIC OCEAN

DESERT lE~}0/~~ 15 DRYLAKES ~ MOUNTAINS IDII!IIIIID 4

Map 2: STUDY AREA

395

··~ California City

LOS ANGELES

PACIFIC OCEAN

Palmdale Sphere of Influence Total Study Area •-

SOURCE: Antelope Valley Board of Trade, 1980 Antelope Valley Progress . '

Valley and Palmdale's sphere of influence. In examining the economic base of Antelope Valley, the delinea- tion of business groups is necessary. Since the basic sources of employment and income in an urban economy are many and varied, businesses have been grouped and mapped according to retail trade, retail service, construction, producers, manufacturers and wholesalers, health and public utility services, and government service.3 The economic base of the Valley is arrived at by cross tabulation and frequency distribution of the proportion of basic employment to service employ ment.4 The second objective is to formulate a land-use plan for Palmdale and develop forecasts of population and employment growth. A physical survey of all commercial activity has been conducted and these data have been coded and mapped according to the Standard Land Use Coding Manua1. 5 Physical surveys of current housing expansion and traffic volume and flow at key intersections have also been conducted. Data accumulated from these surveys has been tabulated and mapped. 6 These survey data have been utilized in developing a paten- tial commercial and industrial land-use plan. An employer survey has been conducted by a San Francisco-based research firm to generate both the current and future population and employment growth within the Valley. 7 Historical profiles with the survey results and economic models8 are used to develop the forecasts. Literature Review Antelope Valley and its communities have had a long, colorful and interesting history. As is typical of many California areas, gold and the railroad have played important parts in this history.9 Commu- 6 nities, established originally because of their proximity to the railroad, have experienced an unsteady economic growth. The region, primarily agriculture, has gradually altered its economic base. Develop ing first a thriving aerospace industry, the region presently is mov ing toward increased commercial and industrial diversification. 10 Examination of a community's economic characteristics and its historical patterns is necessary in the attainment of optimum locating of commercial and industrial activities. One tool employed in analyz ing the economic background of a community as well as in forecasting the future is economic base theory, developed by Homer Hoyt. This theory identifies the base activities of a community as those which export goods, services and capital to locations outside the economic limits of the community. Thus, a community's residentiary employment, income and population can be explained and predicted by reference to employment in its basic activities. 11 A second tool, economic rent theory, provides a basis for the evaluation of individual business locations. In evaluating locations it takes into consideration accessibility, competition, customer dis tribution and commercial trade area. Also having their roots in the rent theory are business conformations involving accessibility and the functional roles of these businesses. 12 Associated with this theory in locating commercial activities is an understanding of consumer be havior. Ethnic background, income, age and store preference perform a role in developing the consumer's behavior. 13 Organization This thesis is presented in six chapters. Following the intro duction chapter, Chapter II establishes the geographic and historical 7

population and economic background of Palmdale as it has grown from a primarily rural community to a more autonomous, urbanized city. It also describes Palmdale's present commercial structure. Chapter III investigates the demography, population and shopping patterns of Palmdale historically and currently. Comparative studies of Antelope Valley are given delineating Palmdale's influence in the Valley. The current economy and economic base of the Valley and Palmdale are the subjects of Chapter IV. This chapter assesses the region's economic base providing a basis for formulating future economic growth and development. Chapter V projects into the future, forecasting growth trends in population, housing and employment. The final chapter de velops land-use strategies in the Palmdale area, utilizing the current commercial structure and projected growth trends. Footnotes

1sphere of influence is defined as the geographical area that identifies with a given major city in terms of employment, shopping and services.

2For further discussion of Stratified Random Digit Dialing see Appendix A.

3Field survey and mapping of commercial activities by author.

4An indepth discussion of the steps used to establish a commu nity's economic base can be found in: Ralph 1~. Pfouts, editor, The Techniques of Urban Economic Analysis (West Trenton, New Jersey--:- Chandler-Davis Publishing Company, 1960).

5The Standard Land Use Coding Manual provides each type of com merical activity with a specific category. These categories can then be coded to yield a map providing a simplified overview of the entire land-use pattern and structure.

6Field surveys and mapping by author.

7Discussion of the Employer Survey can be found in Appendix A.

8Ralph W. Pfouts, editor, The Techni ues of Urban Economic Analysis (Hest Trenton, New Jersey, 1960 23-38.'"

9Historical background on Antelope Valley can be found in: Adabelle Cogswell, Tiburcio Vasquez: Il Bandido sin~ (Volcano and 11 11 Pioneer, California, 1974); 50th Anniversary Edition: 1886-1936 , Antebope Valley Ledger-Gazette (Lancaster, California, 1936); Shelton J. Gordon, Incredible Tales of the Antelope Valley Pioneers (Palmdale, California, 1973); Domenic Massari, Autobiography of Domenic, 1893- 1977 (Palmdale, California, 1977); Lucie Morris, The Histor of the Town of Lancaster, Center of Antelope Valley, California M.A--.Thesis, Department of History, University of Southern California, 1934); Glen A. Settle, Along the Rails from Lancaster to Mojave (Lancaster, California, 1967); Glen A. Settle, The Antelope Left and the Settle ers Came (Rosamond, California, 1975); Glen A. Settle, Tropico: Red Hill with~ Glamorous History of Gold (Rosamond, California, 1959); Richard Boblett Starr, A History of Antelope Valley from 1542 to 1920 (M.A. Thesis, Department of History, University of Southern California, 1938).

8 9

10 Information concerning Antelope Valley's economic progress and transition can be found in: Antelope Valley Board of Trade, 1980 Antelope Valley Progress Documentary (Lancaster, California, 1980): 11 11 1-27; A Story of Achievement and Transition - 1930 Progress Edition , Antelope Valley Ledaer-Gazette (Lancaster, California, 1930); City of Palmdale and Chamber of Commerce, Communit Economic Profile for Palmdale, Los Angeles County, California September, 1977); .. Greater Antelope Valley Edition .. , Antelope Valley Ledger-Gazette (Lancaster, California, 1941); Lancaster Chamber of Commerce, Communit Economic Profile for Lancaster, Los Angeles County, California 1975); Palmdale Chamber of Commerce, Communit Economic Profile for Palmdale, Los Angeles County, California January 1971); Southern California-rdison Company, The Antelope Valley: An Area Inventory (1961},

11 Roger K. Chisholm and Gilbert R. Whitaker, Jr., Forecasting Methods (Homewood, Illinois, 1971): 8-15, 41-50, 51-56; William L. Henderson, Larry C. Ledebur, Urban Economics: Processes and Problems (New York, London, Sydney, Toronto, 1972): 3-9; Ralph W. Pfouts, editor, The Techniques of Urban Economic Analysis (West Trenton, New Jersey, 1960) .

12 william Applebaum, Saul B. Cohen, 11 The Dynamics of Store Trad 11 ing Areas and Market Equilibrium , Annals, Association of American Geographers, 51 (March, 1961): 73-101; Brian J, L. Berry, 11 Ribbon 11 Developments in the Urban Business Pattern , Annals, Association of American Geographers, 49 (June, 1959): 145-155; F. W. Baal and D. B. Johnson, 11 The Functions of Retail and Service Establishments on Com mercial Ribbons, Canadian Geographer, 9 (1965): 1-35; John A. Dawson, John C. Doornkamp, Evaluating the Human Environment (London, 1973): 99-156; Bart J. Epstein, 11 Geography and the Business of Retail Site 11 Evaluation and Selection , Economic Geography, 47 (April, 1971): 192- 199; Curt Kornblau, editor, Guide to Store Location Research (Reading, r~ass., 1968): 25-98; Jack C. Ransome, 11 The Organization of Location 11 Research in a Large Supermarket Chain , Economic Geography, 37 (Janu ary, 1961): 42-47; Paul H. Sisco, 11 Geographic Training and Method 11 Applied to Trade Area Analysis of Local Shopping Centers , Journal of Geography, 54 (May, 1957) : 201-212. -

13Jessie Bernard, American Community Behavior (New York, 1949); Martin Cadwaller, '1A Behavioral Hodel of Consumer Spatial Decision 11 Making , Economic Geography, (October, 1975): 339-349; ~J. A. V. Clark and Gerard Rushton, 11 Models of Intra-Urban Consumer Behavior and Their 11 Implications for Central Place Theory , Economic Geography, 46 (July, 1970): 486-497; Keith Harries, 11 Ethnic Variations in Los Angeles Busi 11 ness Patterns , Annals, Association of American Geographers, 61 (Dec ember, 1971): 736-743; Eugene VanCleef, 11 Things Are Not Always What They Seem for the Economic Geographer .. , Economic Geography, 45 (Jan uary, 1969): 41-44, CHAPTER II

POPULATION AND Cm1~1ERCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Early Development: 1884-1951

About 1870, so the legend goes, covered wagons containing German and Swiss families moved westward from Illinois and Nebraska toward Los Angeles. They had been told that when they saw palm trees the Pacific Ocean would be near. The travelers arrived in Antelope Valley and, seeing the Joshua trees,1 mistakenly thought they were the palm trees spoken of by others. Consequently the families settled in the area, naming the new colony Palmdale. A thriving community was formed inland from the Southern Pacific Railroad in 1876, The site was approximately two miles east of the present location of central Palmdale on what is now Avenue R. The ' settlers developed farms of alfalfa, fruit orchards, vineyards and livestock. The village consisted of a livery stable, blacksmith, shoe shop, mercantile store, school, church, post office and a land office. It also was a stagecoach stop for the Butterfield Stage Lines, carry ing freight, bullion and passengers between San Bernardino and Bakersfield (Map 3). In 1892, the Palmdale Colony site was abandoned and New Palmdale, a community of less than 250 inhabitants, was established nearer the railroad line. Two factors contributed to the abandonment, a lack of water and the inability to obtain deeds for land already boutht. The new site was laid out by the railroad agent from Harold settlement2

10 Map-3:.PIONEER COLONIES

~ . Wicks 1883

John Brown No.2 1888

Manzana 1891 LANCASTER Fairmont - 1884 1890

John Brown No.1 1888

Llano 1890 & 1914 Scale

0 5 10 Miles +N SOURCE: Antelope Valley Ledger· Gazette, 1936.

--' --' ,, '

using the then existing Southern Pacific Railway depot as the focal point.3 The community's boundaries were approximately Avenues Q-6 and Q-9 to the north and south respectively, lOth Street to the east and the railroad line and Mint Canyon Road to the west. Mint Canyon Road, later named Sierra Highway, followed the railroad line through the Valley to Los Angeles. Pear orchards, vineyards and livestock ranches surrounded the community to the east and west. Hater for agricultural and community needs was obtained from Littlerock Creek via a ditch and reservoir completed in 1897 (Map 4). Population, an essential factor in economic growth, during the early 1900's exhibited a slow, gradual increase (Fig. 2-1). Agricul- ture formed the economic base of the community with the railroad as the major employer. Palmdale's commercial picture, although not static, followed population growth in a gradual increase until the 1940's. Service and commercial activities, in 1892, consisted of a school, post office, blacksmith, church, grocery store and the railway depot. By the 1930's this picture had expanded to a total of 27 activ ities (Table 2-1). During this period Palmdale inhabitants began to form a shopping pattern which has endured to the present time. Mer chandise deficiencies apparently forced the people to travel to Lancaster, San Fernando, Pasadena and Los Angeles. Two factors influ-

enced this shopping pattern: (l) ~1int Canyon Road, the main artery from the Valley to San Fernando and Los Angeles, was paved and renamed Sierra Highway, expediting travel; and, (2) Palmdale, lacking a bank ing institution, used the nearest facilities located in Lancaster. Shopping trips to Lancaster, combined with banking, became the natural pattern. 13

-\ Map 4: NEW PALMDALE 1892 ~ - ' - -~ - -

-_,_

- - 0-6 0-6 - Pos~Q ui1 - Office ~ I 0-7 0::"' Gro~ervo 0 -E. - Blacksmith s'r ~ Shop Church ""\ ~ 0 PALMDALE BLVD. ~-~0 School _o ci5 -Depot _s:;: P"lmdale 0-9 050 Inn 0-9 J5 ~· -~

0 - z r- - m 0 ~ ~ - ~ z ~ z --\ --\ ("") - ("") ")> z ")> -< z 0 -~ -< z - 0z :::0 :::0 0 0 ")> 0 -~ ")> ""I"" 0

-r--

SCALE 0 % Miles -t- ~N -r ' 14

Fig. 2-1: POPULATION TREND OF PALMDALE FROM 1900 to 1980

10,500

10,000

9500 I

9000 I I( 8500

8000 I

7500 I

7000 I

6500 I

6000 I

5500 I I 5000 , 4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000 J 1500 ,I ,) 1000

500 ...,_ v 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 YEARS 15

SERVICE AND RETAIL ACTIVITIES Palmdale - 1930

SERVICES RETAIL Barber Shop Grocery Store Schools (2) Hotel (2) Blacksmith Restaurant (3) Service Station (2) Auto Agency (2) Post Office Drugstore Church r.1ercant i 1e Store Telephone Office Ice Cream Parlor Railway Depot Hardware Store Motel (2) Bar and Poolroom Dance Hall Newspaper

Table 2-1 Activity types found in Palmdale in 1930 Sources: 16

In the 1940's and 50's the gradual transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy began. The first runway of the Palmdale Air port was built for the city in 1940 by the Works Progress Administra tion (WPA). 4 During the following two decades the airport and its land passed from city ownership to Los Angeles County and finally to the Federal Government. 5 The airport terminal was enlarged, adding runways, and the first large industry, aircraft, entered the Valley. Plant 42 was created as a facility to augment industrial production of prime aircraft contractors in the Los Angeles area (Map 5). 6 With the arrival of the aircraft industry, population and business began an upward trend (Fig. 2-1). Growth Period: 1950-1980 The commercial development of Palmdale began in the 1950's with the arrival of large industries and population. Residences, mainly single-family dwellings, were constructed in three distinct areas,

Desert View Highlands to the west, Palmdale, and Palmdale East (~1ap 6).7 With residential areas established and gradually expanding, the number of retail, service and industrial activities began to increase. The business nucleus8 of the community remained, with new busi nesses developing along the two main arterial highways, north-south Sierra Highway and east-west Palmdale Boulevard (Highway 138).9 A variety of establishments lined these arteries becoming the first step in the commercial ribbon development10 of Palmdale (Map 6). Following the initial development in the early 1950's, urban arterial business areas11 and nucleated shopping centers12 appeared. Expansion of single-purpose-trip establishments13 occurred along Sierra Highway. Sixth Street East, lying parallel to the railroad, became a combina- Map 5:PALMDALE AIRPORT- PLANT 42 w w ui ... ..: ..: (J) (J) (J) .s::.... .s::. 0 M 0 ""'

/ /

Avenue N '

ui ..: _/ (J) £ f6 I D-~ __, 0 LOCKHEED L-1011 Avenue 0 ---- 0 % Mi~

Avenue P

__, '-J

., Map 6:COMMERCIAL - SCHOOL DEVELOPEMENT 1950 - 1980

1----- A""'"·-----1t-~~;:------tr==,.,---t------1r------~1------_jl------J

t ~ /~/ / I/DESERT VIEW HIGHLANDS

I L F.lit~heth t~lu•Rnnrt· - Av'""''rn -----11 t-----i,_.b,...... ,....,,...""''M'-rr!::-::!!-+-----=~=,...,=-=,....==-="":=,.._,=-==-=,....,="""'===""'=,l,=-=,....==-==-=.,1 I I ------~------1 I I I PALM DALE PALMDALE EAST L-J Will

~-·~-~ D

10 PROPER COMERCIAL AREAS: '"".r, .. Prior to 1950 ~ ~ i--A••""'"_u.._._ _.__ """il-"""'~f'l!tl"j~4f'II------F'-"=..d!JW";.&;..O~!'i.:lli:i:OL------J------~ 1950- 1960 E~~2~22l 1960-- 1970 1 l'l'l't1,1,1,1 i!t I v 1'1'1 l!t\t 1970- 1980 k>.· ..l ___ I N SCHOOLS:

Priorto1950 ~ ~ \ W+E { 1950 1960 ~ s

1960 ··- 1970 ~ \0 0"""'""'""" '/,Mile ---+- ~

00 ·-- --

tion of light manufacturing and service activities. Accessibility to rail transportation was the leading factor in the growth of this street. Nucleated business centers were constructed in Palmdale East and Palmdale proper (Map 6), These centers emerged where the largest number of customers could be served in close proximity. Each were clusters of grocery stores, variety and clothing stores, drugstores, 14 persona 1 an d pro f ess1ona. 1 serv1ces . , an d spec1a . 1ty s hops. T h e construction of five schools, four public and one parochial, in the late 1950's was an indicator of population growth (Map 6). Although Palmdale experienced cyclical periods due to the vagar- ies of the aircraft industry, the effect was minimal on the general upward trend of population and commercial endeavors (Fig. 2-1). Addi- tionally, three public schools were constructed to accommodate the increasing population during the 1960's. The city was incorporated in 1962. Incorporation required zoning, thus presenting the first step toward a planned community (Map 7). However, a concentrated effort in city planning was not initiated until 1970 when a Planning Commission was created. The construction of the Southern Pacific Railroad's

11 CUt-off 11 route between Palmdale and Colton15 to the east in 1967 and the completion of the Antelope Valley Freeway16 in 1973 alleviated many transportation problems of local industries. With improved transportation, commercial and industrial expansion was encouraged. The era 1960 to 1980 was a period of rapid expansion in popula tion and commercial activities throughout the Valley, especially noticeable in Palmdale and Lancaster. Increasing travel on the freeway and Highway 138 created the need for activities requiring large sites and ready accessibility. As in Berry's studies, highway-oriented 20

...,..__...... ,...-i!-t-----~...,..--Map~LM ' 7: PALMDALE ZONING MAP m m L r ~ ~ ~ ;; ~ :=m -< -< C-3 M-A

PJ---A--2--S--'

Ave. 0 ~ MPO SPB

~(RP0- M-2 12U -, C-3 H r--+---u.v A-2-5 ~ R-1 Ldo R-1 / Ave. P 1 CPO 1 ' w w .. - ~ ~ ~ "' "' ?!? m _m m m CPO m

C-3 C-2

.,LV ~ ~ .1'1) C3 ~.u- 2 R-1 I ~~ 3 I~ r-k- R-;-- ~R-3 ~'----;-.r--jS('.- ,,~~ --.., -..,. I~ • 11Jl~ L~p;;t~::r:~==~::j:::::::~PA~LM~O!All~ETB~L~V~O~--t------i~ C-3 .___A_-_'-, \ ~ ib1 t~R3 ~L R-3 rf t\:-7- RPO-+ Ave.R I ~ m~~~~2~~~--~~---R~-3~----~C~-3~g~po~-~12~U--~-----~~R-.-3-+---+--~~~--f

Lr ~ E J ~·21PO1 R-1 R-1 RP0-12U fr MPD R·U 1 Ave. S ~ R-1 1"- m

LEGEND

COMMERCIAL ZONES MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL ZONES

C-1: Ne•ghborhood \11-1: Light C-2: Light M-2: Medium C-3: Medium M-A: Aircraft CPO: Planned Development MPO: Planned Developmenr

RESIDENTIAL ZONES AGRICULTURAL ZONES

R-1: Single Family A-1: Light R-2: Low Dens1tv MultiPle A-2: Heavy R-3: Medium Dens•tv Multiple RPO: Planned Development

SCALE OTHER ZONES 0 2000 Feet SPD: Parking and Buffer 1000 3000 N S·R: Recreauon 21

ribbons emerged, especially to the east and west of the freeway on Palmdale Boulevard. Specialized functional areas developed; Palmdale•s medical center on Avenue S and the automobile agencies, new and used, lining Sierra Highway between Palmdale and Lancaster. As the population increased, neighborhood shopping centers entered the picture. Older business centers underwent renewal and redevelopment. Notable in this case were the beginnings of total re newal of the original business nucleus of Palmdale, Avenues Q-6 to Q-9, and remodeling plus expansion of the centers in Palmdale proper and Palmdale East, Sections of the central business district had degener ated to a slum condition, especially along Sierra Highway from Palmdale Boulevard to Avenue Q-9. Removal of structures in this area began in the late l970•s. City governmental and cultural services17 were newly constructed in this central node of Palmdale. A third nucleated shop ping center was developed in the early l970 1 s between Division Street and Third Street East on Palmdale Boulevard to meet the needs of customers in the western section of Palmdale, especially Desert View Highlands. This time span also witnessed the expansion of service and retail activities along the urban arterials, joining with and ranging beyond the nucleated centers. Two industrial parks were erected, Fox Industrial Park in the early 1970 1 s on Sixth Street East south of Avenue R and Palmdale Industrial Park on 20th Street East north of Avenue Q in the late 197o•s. Industrial parks are a fairly recent innovation. They are designed to accommodate light manufacturing industries and minimize transportation problems, Both parks were constructed to fulfill these functions. However, the earlier park, Fox, is the only one 22 which meets this functional idea. It is composed entirely of light manufacturing industries and has ready access to both railway and truck transportation. The location of Palmdale Industrial Park is based on the future development of the Palmdale International Airport. Since transportation is not readily accessible, the park has become service oriented. Nevertheless, spotty development of aircraft-relat ed industries have occurred in areas of close proximity to the exist ing airport and Lockheed's large facility. A visual description of the contemporary commercial structure of Palmdale is shown on Map 8 (Appendix C). The economic and social well-being of a community is influenced by the number of wage-earners, their qualifications, employment and income. Chapter III will review the population and demography of the study area. Footnotes

1The Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is the largest member of the narrow-leaf yuccas. The plant attains a height of forty or more feet, developing many branches with overlapping, long, spiny leaves. It blooms from March to May, exhibiting large tight clusters of lilylike blossoms at the tips of the branches. It is restricted in its range to the Mojave-Colorado Desert, of which it is the principal indicator.

2Harold was a Southern Pacific Railway depot, approximately three miles south of present day Palmdale Boulevard. Complete with a telegraph agent, it was a link on the railroad between Lancaster and Acton. Dr. Michael, the agent-planner of New Palmdale, moved the entire community of Harold to the new location.

3The Palmdale railway depot was the main passenger and freight depot for Antelope Valley. The depot and freight offices were removed in 1969.

4The original runway of Palmdale Airport was used by commercial airlines whenever the Los Angeles airports were fogged in. Passeng ers were then taken by bus to Los Angeles.

5The Air Force, in 1951, negotiated with Los Angeles County to purchase the Palmdale Airport lands. Their motive was to have a facility that would assure the continued delivery of jet aircraft production in the Los Angeles area.

6Plant 42 was developed by Lockheed, a leading aircraft manu facturer. It housed Lockheed, North American, Northrop and Convair. The main purpose of the plant was the testing, inspection, rehabili tation and storage of Air Force and aircraft industrial equipment.

7The number of housing units in each area is not indicated on Map 6, only the area. This was not a static period; on the contrary, it was extremely dynamic.

8Avenue Q-6 to Q-9 and Sierra Highway to lOth Street East.

9Highway 138 is the main state highway linking San Bernardino with Bakersfield.

10oetailed discussion of commercial ribbon development can be found in: Brian J. L. Berry, 11 Ribbon Developments in the Urban Busi-

23 24

11 ness Pattern , Annals, Association of American Geographers, 49 (June, 1959): 145-155; Brian J. L. Berry, Edgar C. Conkling, D. Hichael Ray, The Geography of Economic Systems (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1976); F. W. Baal and D. B. Johnson, "The Functions of Retail and 11 Service Establishments on Commercial Ribbons , Canadian Geographer, IX (1965): 154-196; Ross L. Davies, Marketing Geography {London, 1976): 117-156.

11 urban arterial businesses are those which seek out urban areas but are more successful along arterial highways, such as auto repair shops, printing services, second-hand stores, bars, pawn shops, and hotels.

12Nucleated shopping centers are located centrally with respect to their trade area. They represent the neighborhood and community shopping center. Centers are closely or widely spaced in accordance to the available purchasing power.

13single-purpose-trip establishments are those which require large, expansive sites and ready accessibility. Motels, restaurants, service stations, household suppliers and repair facilities require such sites.

14Personal services are represented by barber and beauty shops, laundering and dry cleaning establishments, etc. Professional serv ices are medical and legal services, insurance agencies, banks, etc.

15The Colton Cut-off is a 78-mile link between Palmdale and Colton. It provides a shortcut for freight shipped from the north west to the east, eliminating the passage through the Los Angeles yard, thus saving hours and, in some cases, days for transcontinental shipments.

16The freeway links Antelope Valley to the los Angeles metro politan center via the Golden State, San Diego and Hollywood freeways. The first segment from the Golden State Freeway to Acton was completed in 1963, the remaining segment to Mojave in 1973.

17city Hall, City Engineers, the Planning Commission and the Chamber of Commerce compose the governmental services. The Culture Center is comprised of the library, theater, gymnasium and meeting rooms for civic organizations. CHAPTER III

POPULATION AND OCCUPATIONS

The composition and characteristics of population are paramount in the study of land-use in an area undergoing economic diversifica tion. The description of the current status and changes over time in the size, density and composition of a population is an indicator of the economic and social stability of an area. Antelope Valley's total population in 1980 is approximately

175,000, an increase of 23 percent over th~ 1970 population of 134,750. Compared to Los Angeles County's growth of 2.5 percent for the same period, the growth of the Valley has been quite dramatic. Growth of the communities comprising Antelope Valley from 1975 to 1980 is presented in Table 3-1. The greatest density of population in Antelope Valley is located in four areas, China Lake-Ridgecrest, Edwards, Lancaster and Palmdale. Although the first two areas are military installations, they contribute to the economic base of the Valley. Palmdale and Lancaster, as well as their spheres of influence, experienced a greater percentage population growth than the entire region between 1970 and 1980 (Table 3-2). ~lithin the incorporated boundaries of Palmdale the greatest concentration of residents can be found in Palmdale East as well as surrounding the central business area. Outside the boundaries another high concentration is located to

25 26

POPULATION

Percent of Percent Antelope Change Valley in 1975 to 1975 1980 1980 1980 Lancaster 45,000 47,931* 27.4% 6.5% Palmdale 11 ,400 12 'll3* 6.9 6.3 Edwards** ll ,000 14,791 8.5 34.5 Llano 700 2,500 1.4 257.1 California City 2,500 2,800* 1.6 12.0 Mojave 2,570 3,000 1.7 16.7 Boron 2,950 2,500 1.4 -15.3 Acton 700 925 0.5 32.1 Quartz Hill 8,500 8,800 5.0 3.5 Littlerock-Sun Village 2,800 3,260 1.9 16.4 Pearblossom 725 890 0.5 22.8 Leona Valley-Lake Hughes 2,300 2,270 1.3 -1.3 Tehachapi 4,500 3,900 2.2 -13.3 Ridgecrest-China Lake 20,700 22 'll6 12.6 6.8 Rosamond 1,200 1,500 0.9 25.0 ***Total Antelope Valley 149,000 175,000 17.4

* Incorporated boundaries ** Includes Edwards Air Force Base ***Does not equal the sum of above for 1975 and 1980

Table 3-1 Population changes of Antelope Valley communities from 1975 to 1980. Sources: U.S. Census, Preliminary Population Figures 1980; California Department of Transportation; Antelope Valley Board of Trade; Kern County Board of Trade. 27

POPULATION GROWTH

Percent 1970 1980 Change

City of Palmdale 8,511 12,113 42.0% Palmdale Sphere of Influence 31 ,429 38,876 24.0%

City of Lancaster 30,948 47,931 55.0% Lancaster Sphere of Influence 51 ,446 62,790 22.0%

Table 3-2 The Percentage of Population Growth in the Palmdale and Lancaster Areas. Source: Antelope Valley Board of Trade. 28 the west in Desert View Highlands. During the past five years, 1975 to 1980, these three residential areas have been expanding (~1ap 9). An additional indication of growth in these two cities was the signif icant percentage of residents who have lived in these areas less than five years. Of the two cities, Palmdale has had a higher rate of recent population growth, 52.4 percent, suggesting changes in the com munity's economy (Table 3-3). YEARS OF RESIDENCE Ante 1ope Va 11 ey Years of Residence Palmdale Lancaster Area Less than 1 year 19.8% 12,9% 16.3% 2 - 5 years 32.6 21.7 27.2

6 - 10 years 15.0 15.5 15.2 11 - 15 years 9.0 11.0 10.0 16 - 20 years 10.2 14. 1 12.2 21+ years 13.4 24.8 19.1 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = (313) {419) (732) Table 3-3 Percentage of years of residence for the cities of Palmdale, Lancaster, and Antelope Valley in 1980. Source: Los Angeles County Planning Group. Parallel with the region's population growth in the past decade is a growth in housing, especially significant in the Palmdale and Lancaster areas (Table 3-4). The majority of the region's population is housed in single-family dwellings (Table 3-5). However, in the Palmdale-Lancaster area an increasing proportion of the housing units authorized by building permits, 33,3 percent, is multifamily units, 29

I .. .!! ~c :i Q) w -o ·u; Q) 0: Clc ·;:; ~] .!!! X w 30

HOUSING UNIT GROWTH Percent 1970 1980 Change City of Palmdale 2,816 4,945 76.0% Palmdale Sphere of Influence 10,610 14,310 35.0% City of Lancaster 9,581 18 '1 00 89.0% Lancaster Sphere of Influence 16,434 26,700 62.0%

Table 3-4 The percentage of housing unit growth in the Palmdale and Lancaster areas. Source: Los Angeles Planning Group.

TYPE OF HOUSING Antelope Valley Type of Housing Palmdale Lancaster Area Single-family Detached 81.8% 78.6% 80.2% Apartment 7.0 8.7 7.8 Condominium 0.3 1.2 0.8 r~obil e Home 9.9 10.6 10.3 Other 1.0 0.9 0.9 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = (313) (426) (739)

Table 3-5 Percentage of residents by type of housing, 1980. N equals the number of respondents to the house hold survey. Source: Los Angeles Planning Group. 31 both apartments and condominiums. Issuance of building permits and housing construction increased from 1970 to 1980, except during the decade's recession period, 1974- 1976. An annual average for the ten-year span was 898 housing units for the Palmdale-Lancaster area (Table 3-6). Major residential development has occurred in four areas in Palmdale; two large subdivisions between 25th and 40th Streets East south of Palmdale Boulevard, an area near the golf course east of lOth Street West and north of Avenue P, Desert View Highlands west of lOth Street West, and Manzanita Heights south of Palmdale Boulevard between Division Street and lOth Street West (Map 9). RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS CITY OF PALMDALE Total Year Single Famil,l Multi-Family Dwelling Units 1970 108 80 188 1971 33 64 97 1972 55 381 436 1973 79 465 544 1974 2 25 27 1975 3 0 3 1976 6 0 6 1977 27 5 32 1978 677 243 920 1979 114 111 225 1980 168 14 182 Tota 1 1272 1388 2660 Table 3-6 The number of housing units authorized by residential building permits in the Palmdale area from 1970 to 1980. The number of permits in 1980 was to the month of May. Source: City of Palmdale, Department of Building and Safety. The age profile of the region exhibited a shift in emphasis consistent with the upward trend of in-migration in the area and 32 national trends. The region's largest population group in 1970 was 5 to 15 years of age. The year 1980 found the 18 to 29 age group the region's largest population segment (Table 3-7). The age structure of Palmdale was similar to that of the entire region, with one notable exception. A considerably higher percentage of the 60 to 69 age group resides in Palmdale than Lancaster, 14.3 percent and 10.6 percent re spectively, which implies future needs in the city's social and public services for the elderly. AGE STRUCTURE OF ADULT POPULATION Antelope Valley Age GrouE Palmdale Lancaster Area 18-29 26.0% 27.0% 26.5% 30-39 25.4 22.6 24.0 40-49 15.9 16.9 16.4 50-59 12.7 14.7 13.7 60-69 14.3 10.6 12.4 70-79 4.4 5.8 5.1 80+ 1.3 2.4 1.9 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = ( 315} (415) (730) Table 3-7 The age structure of the adult population in the cities of Palmdale and Lancaster and the Antelope Valley, 1930. N equals the number of respondents to the household survey. Source: Los Angeles Planning Group. The household survey1 established that 88 percent of households in Palmdale currently included women in the child-bearing years, 18 to 50 years, as compared to 77 percent in Lancaster. Fertility levels were also slightly higher in the Palmdale population. Based on the child-woman ratio,2 Palmdale's fertility level was 0.36, Lancaster's was 0.32. Palmdale's greater population in-migration in the past five years could account for its higher fertility level. In 33

1977, Palmdale's population of five and eighteen years was 7,709. By 1980, this age group had declined to 6,318, or 18.0 percent. However, although there was a decline, the five to eighteen age group comprised 52 percent of Palmdale's total population in 1980. The average house hold size in Antelope Valley declined during the past ten years. Household size in 1970 was 3.3, dropping to 2.8 in 1980. However, Palmdale and Lancaster households currently were larger than the region as a whole, 3.2 and 3.0 respectively. Household size in these areas was related directly with the fertility level and in-migration. As demonstrated with the elderly age bracket, the above indicated future demands for child-related services, especially in Palmdale. Data obtained from the household survey placed the median income for Palmdale households at $20,744. This was somewhat lower than the median income for the entire Valley, $21,240, but not a significant difference. 15,8 percent of Palmdale's households had an income be tween $20,000 and $25,000 which was comparable to the entire region. A notable feature of Palmdale's income distribution was the large con centration of households having an income less than $5,000. This heavy percentage was partly caused by the large group of residents 60 years of age and older which comprised 20 percent of Palmdale's population (Fig. 3-1), A fairly high level of education was attained by Antelope Valley residents. An average of twelve years of schooling was com pleted. Of the responses from the Palmdale area, almost 60 percent had received a high school diploma, while 35 percent had attended at least one year of college and 4 percent had received graduate degrees (Table 3-8). 34

Fig. 3-1: INCOME DISTRIBUTION 1980 18

Antelope Valley 15 Lancaster

14 Palmdale

enQ) ..... 10 c:"' ....~ Q) 0.. 9

0 ~ $ , # I I # # # ~ ...... ,.. 0)' ,.. f !).)' "69 G9 S$I s;- .... ~· ~ ~· G9 ~ ~ "69 GJ ~ ~ ,. ~· ~· ~· ~· ~· ~· "69 I o· !:)' o· I s;-~· ~· ~· ~ ~"'' ~ ~ ~ ~ Income Level 35

EDUCATION LEVELS Antelope Valley Education Level Palmdale Lancaster Area 5-8 years 2.9% 3.8% 3.4% 9-12 years 58.7 48.2 53.4 13-16 years 34.6 39.3 37.0 17 or more years 3.8 8.7 6.2 Total 100.0% 100,0% 100.0% N = (315) (425) (740) Table 3-8 The education level percentages of the residents of Palmdale, Lancaster and the Antelope Valley, 1980. N is the number of respondents to the household Survey. Source: Los Angeles Planning Group.

The level of education of the region is reflected in the occupa tional categories of the residents and their employment status. The labor force is at present heavily service-oriented. As shown in Table 3-9, the occupational structure of Palmdale and Lancaster is similar; however, the former has a larger industrial labor force. Better than 50 percent of the region's labor force is working full-time. However, about 8 percent of Palmdale's work force is unemployed due, in part, to the cyclical layoffs of the aircraft industry. Palmdale's employment status is a reflection of its age and fertility structure in that almost 15 percent of the population list their occupation as "Keeping House" and 2 percent are in school (Fig. 3-2). This large percentage, 42 percent, of residents not employed also contributed to Palmdale's lower income status. 36

OCCUPATIONAL TYPE PROFILE Occupational Type Palmdale Lancaster Professionals 30.0% 32.0% Managers-Administrators 9.0 12.0 Sales Workers 6,0 6.0 Clerical Workers 14.0 16.0 Service Workers 8.0 8.0 Craftsmen-Skilled Workers 19.0 15.0 Operatives-Transportation Workers 11.0 6.0 Laborers 3,0 5.0 Total 100.0% 100.0% Table 3-9 Occupational types are segregated into eight categories. Profile is for 1980. Source: Antelope Valley Board of Trade; Questor Associates. Although Antelope Valley has become more autonomous, 46 percent of Palmdale's principal wage earners are employed elsewhere, whereas only 26 percent of the work force in Lancaster have their primary place of employment outside the city (Table 3-10). Diversification and expansion of manufacturing is occurring, but apparently not rapid ly enough to satisfy the available work force in Palmdale. Another factor suggesting the need of increased economic diver sification in the Palmdale area is noticeable in the residents' shopping pattern. One-third of the households shop in Lancaster or else where, whereas only 2 percent of the Lancaster households shop outside their area (Table 3-11). Nearly 70 percent of Palmdale's residents make at least one, generally more, shopping trips a month outside the 37 9

Fig. 3-2: EMPLOYMENT STATUS

55 ..

I": . 50 f-- I"' ~co/~ '§itf~ . s %~q, 45 Q..'(§ ,f !ZI .• ~ "·',.g. ~ (;' 40 .. ~ •'. 35 . 30 ·. 25 .. .·. 20 ... .' - ..: r-: 15 : . .. "':' .. . 10 . . . r:" .. . - . .: .. - r:"! : - .... . 5 ·.1-- :- . . i:-. . .. ~ ,I . .... 0 ... ·' n fl n.IJl... ~ Cb ~ ~ ~ ~ ·~ s ~ Cb g.. :.§ o- ·~ ;S ~~ ·~ .s (;' "ff [;. ~ 0 ~0 :-... * .;:; § ~ .::i ~ ~ ' ~ " Gj(j '<. ~$' rf ~ Q.. .:::f 38

PLACE OF HORK Ante 1ope Va 11 ey City of Work Palmdale Lancaster Area Palmdale 54,0% 18.8% 36.4% Lancaster 22.4 74.0 48.2 Other parts of Los Angeles County 23,0 6.8 14.9 Other 0.6 0.4 0.5 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = {174) (250) (424) Table 3-10 The percentage of residents in Palmdale and Lancaster as to the city or area in which they work for 1980. Source: Los Angeles County Planning Group

LOCAL SHOPPING AREA

Area of Most Area of Residence Antelope Valley Frequent Shopping Palmdale Lancaster Area

Lancaster 33. 8~~ 98.3% 66.0% Palmdale 66.2 1.7 34.0 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = (305) ( 419) (724) Table 3-11 The cities of Antelope Valley where residents of Palmdale and Lancaster as well as spheres of influence most frequently shop, 1980. Source: Los Angeles County Planning Group. 39

Antelope Valley region. Compared with Lancaster's trip frequency of 29 percent and the Valley as a whole of 49 percent, this becomes a primary factor in pointing out the retail deficiencies of Palmdale. (Table 3-12). SHOPPING TRIP FREQUENCY Antelope Valley Trip Frequency Palmdale Lancaster Area Less than once a month 31.1% 71 .0% 51.0% Once a month 15.0 17.4 16.2 2 - 5 times a month 39.8 10.4 25' 1 6 - 10 times a month 7.8 0.3 4.1 11 or more times a month 6.3 0.9 3.6

Total 100.0% 100 .m~ 100.0%

N = (287) (400} (697) Table 3-12 The percentage of residents making shopping trips outside the Palmdale-Lancaster area, 1980. Source: Los Angeles County Planning Group. Further confirmation of these deficiences can be found in the types of items shopped for outside the region. Frequent trips for food are more localized, but households throughout the Antelope Valley make longer trips for clothing and household items (Table 3- 13). This seems to establish succinctly the demand for retail estab lishments handling these items which would be a step toward a more stable economy. Summary Antelope Valley, as a whole, has become more autonomous and ec onomically diversified since 1960. The data indicate, however, that 40

MERCHANDISE TYPES Ante 1ope Va 11 ey Type of Item Palmdale Lancaster Area Clothing, apparel 49.0% 50.7% 49.8% Food, 1 i quor 15.1 7.5 11.3 Home furnishings 11.1 12.0 11.5 General merchandise 11.8 10.3 11.1 Automobiles and related items 5.4 4.8 5.1 Other 7.6 14.7 11.2 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

N = (484) (292) (776) Table 3-13 The types of merchandise items residents shopped for outside the Palmdale-Lancaster area, 1980. Source: Los Angeles County Planning Group. 41

Palmdale will benefit from expansion and diversification of its indus trial base. As much as 46 percent of Palmdale's wage earners are em ployed outside the city, either in Lancaster or other parts of Los Angeles County. As will be determined in the following chapter, Palmdale's industrial base consists mainly of aerospace industries. Unfortunately, these industries are subject to cyclical activity, and the city's businesses, at this time, are unable to fully employ the available labor force. Economic expansion should therefore be a prime objective of the future. Evidence concerning the age structure of Palmdale's residents as well as their shopping patterns establishes further the need for ex pansion. Palmdale has a relatively high proportion of its population in the upper age brackets. Additionally, it has a high fertility level, 0.36, and a large household size, 3.2. These data indicate a demand for social and public services, including education. Currently, the city's public services consist mainly of bureaucratic activities, and Palmdale basically relies upon Lancaster to provide other types of governmental services. Considering the current population of children 5 to 18 years, the fertility level, and household size of residents in Palmdale, the need for expanded social and public services will be aggravated in the near future. Deficiencies in Palmdale's retail trade are established in evi dence related to the residents' shopping patterns. Merchandise defi ciencies, especially clothing and household items, result in a signi ficant percentage of the residents shopping in Lancaster or making one or more shopping trips per month out of the Valley. The retail struc ture of Palmdale (~1ap 8, Appendix C) further confirms a shortage of 42 retail businesses handling items residents require. Palmdale, conse quently, is losing potential benefits in the form of sales tax revenue. Of prime importance is the construction of housing to accommo date the present demand and encourage economic expansion. Further more, Palmdale will benefit by encouraging the expansion of existing retail activities and the development of new businesses to fulfill the demands of its residents and available labor force. I '

Footnotes

1 The household survey was conducted by the Los Angeles Planning Group in 1980. A sample of the questionnaire used may be seen in Appendix B.

2The child-woman ratio is calculated by dividing the number of children from birth to 4 years of age by the number of women 18 to 50 years of age. CHAPTER IV

ECONOMIC BASE AND TRANSPORTATION

Economic Base

The urban economic base is composed of those activities of a community which involve the export of goods and services to firms or individuals outside the community's economic boundaries. This export function earns a dollar inflow for the community from the surrounding region. However, the base activities can be considered in another sense as the wage-earners of the community family. Without them, or if their earning power declines, the economic health of the community suffers. The economic portion of a community which the base supports is referred to as the service activity. The service activities in- elude those enterprises whose main function is to provide for the needs of persons within the community's economic surroundings.1 The major flow of income into a community is in the form of pay ment received for goods and services exported to the outside areas. The part of this income which is of major significance to the commun ity is the portion paid to workers as income. These workers spend the greater part of their income within the community, thus creating a demand for goods and services. That demand, in turn, determines the number of local businesses and the number of persons employed. Con sequently, the income earned by those businesses is paid to their employees as income which they use to consume local goods and services.

44 45

This processt the multiplier effectt2 creates a circular stream of in come flows vital to the economic functioning of a community. Income leaves a community's economic stream through savings and the importation of goods and services by both basic and service activities. If a community has insufficient retail and service businessest the inhabitants will spend their incomes outside the community which will tend to retard growth of the local commercial establishements. Community service industries are as vital to community life as the basic industries. Their presence allows the community's income to follow the circular path which ensures economic health and stability.3 Antelope Valley's basic industries in the past have been agri culture and aerospace. Prior to 1950, agriculture was the principal _contributor to the Valley's economy. As the Valley became more urban ized, agriculture's importance in the regional economy waned. Employ ment and production value due to price increases of products and greater yields per acre increased by 275.0 percent and 183.6 percent respectively since 1960. However, during the same time span, agri culture acreage decreased by 28.1 percent. The major decline occurred in the 1970's indicating the region's trend toward a more stable econ omy and urbanization (Table 4-1). Aviation and aviation-related industries contributed signifi cantly to the growth and development of Antelope yalley•s economic base. Conditions in the Valley were conducive to this industry in two respects; favorable climate with a clear atmosphere and minimal ad verse weather conditions, as well as adequate space. These condi tions prompted the Air Force to institute flight-test operations in 1930 at Edwards Air Force Base. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Los Angeles Portion of Antelope Valley 1960-1978 Percent Change 1960 1965 1969 1974 --1978 1960-1969 1969-1978 1960-1978 Acrea~: Fruits and Nuts 2,772 2,384 1,838 1 ,540 1 '180 -33.7 -35.8 -57.4 Field Crops* 73,020 56' 119 75 '170 44,570 52,450 2.9 -30.2 -28.2 Vegetables 1,650 425 130 405 2,001 -92.1 1,446.9 21.9 Nursery Stock 75 80 100 70 82 33.3 -18.0 9.3 TOTAL* 77,517 59,008 77,238 46,585 55' 723 - 0.4 -27.9 -28.1

Value** Fruits and Nuts $1,079 $ 966 $1,136 $2,249 $3,l53 5.3 177.6 192.2 Field Crops 7,072 9,247 8,021 12,759 15,955 13.4 98.9 125.6 Vegetables 880 374 69 369 6,523 -92.2 9,353.6 641.3 Nursery Stock 66 87 113 115 - 180 66.2 59.3 164.7 TOTAL*** $9,100 $10,674 $9,339 $15,492 $25,811 2.6 176.4 183.6 Table 4-1 *Not including pasture and range. **In thousdands of dollars. ***Does not include government transfers. Source: Agricultural Commissioner, County of Los Angeles.

•.J::::o 0"\ 47

The region's aerospace nucleus is comprised of operations at Edwards Air Force Base, China Lake Naval Weapons Station, Palmdale International Airport, Lancaster's Fox Airport, and airports in Mojave, California City, Ridgecrest-Inyokern, and Tehachapi (Map 10). Companies forming the core are Boeing, Northrop, General Electric and Rockwell International which assemble and conduct flight-test opera tions. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Rocket Propulsion Laboratory instigate and perform major experiments on solar energy and fuel effi ciency. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducts tests of unmanned and manned aerospace vehicles. Plant 42 at Palmdale International Airport serves as an assembly and flight-test center for both military and commercial aircraft (Table 4-2). Since 1959 the Palmdale-Lancaster economic base expanded and diversified significantly. Total employment increased by 18,300 from 1959 to 1977. The major portion of this increase occurred during the 1970's. Manufacturing, trade and government were responsible for 71.3 percent of the total employment in 1959. t•1anufacturing carried the largest percent due to the influx of aircraft industries. By 1977, the major employment areas had become manufacturing, services and government. Employment in these categories was evenly distributed, accounting for 59.8 percent of the total employment. The greatest increase in number of employees was in services, government, construc tion and manufacturing. However, the most rapid growth in employment was in services, finance and real estate, construction, and agricul ture. Growth in the first three areas, corresponded with the rapid population increase. The population increase created increased demand for housing, financing and many varied services (Table 4-3). 48

Map 10: ANTELOPE VALLEY CHINA LAKE NAVAL AEROSPACE BASES WEAPONS CENTER

.....

.CALIFORNIA CITY

Hvvy. 58

Hwy. 58

Rosamond Blvd. EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE

Hwy.138 t:9 FOX AIRPORT LANCASTER

Hwy.138

San Gabriel Mountains

SCALE 0 5 10 , 1 • Miles N AVIATION ACTIVITIES Location Activity Type Frequency Use (1979) Palmdale International Airport Golden Hest: Commercial 4,957 passengers; 5.72 tons freight Air Force Plant 42 Northrop: Assembly, flight test Lockheed: Assembly, flight test North American Rockwell: Assembly, flight test Edwards Air Force Base t·1ilitary flight testing 14,000 arrivals and departures

China Lake Naval Station Passenger and freight service 35,000 arrivals and d~partures Flight testing General William J. Fox Airport Private and U. S. Forest Service 141 ,000 arrivals and departures Lancaster Mojave Airport Private service 14,046 arrivals and departures Special flights and jet testing California City Airport Private and recreational service 5,000 arrivals and departures 6,000 glider arrivals and departures Ridgecrest-Inyokern Airport Commuter service 2,900 arrivals and departures Tehachapi Airport Private and charter service 5,000-7,000 arrivals and. departures Crystallaire Airport Private and recreational service 85 arrivals and departures 10,126 glider arrivals and departures. Table 4-2 Source: FAA Airmen's Information ~1anua1

+::> \.0 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY PALMDALE-LANCASTER LABOR MARKET AREA 1959-1977

1959 1962 1965 1968 1973 1977

Number % Number % Number % Number % Number % Number - & Agriculture 400 3.3 350 2.5 400 3.0 500 3.1 900 3.8 1500 4.9 Construction 1000 8.2 750 5.3 800 5.9 900 5.6 2600 11.1 3800 12.5 Manufacturing 3500 28.7 5300 37.5 2300 17.0 2500 15.6 4800 20.4 6100 20.0 Transportation, Communication, Utilities 600 4.9 600 4.2 800 5.9 900 5.6 975 4.1 1100 3.6 Trade, Whole- sale, Retail 3100 25.4 3050 21.6 3300 24.4 3600 22.5 4000 17.0 4550 14.9 Finance, Real Estate, Insurance 300 2.5 300 2.1 400 3,0 400 2.5 850 3,6 1200 3.9 Services 1200 9.8 1300 9.2 2000 14.8 3500 21 '9 4600 19.6 6100 20.0 Government 2100 17.2 2500 17.7 3500 25.9 3700 23.1 4750 20.2 6050 19.8 Other (Mining) ------50 0.2 100 0.3 TOTAL* 12200 100.0 14150 100.1 13500 99,9 16000 99.9 23525 100.0 30500 99.9 *Percent totals may not equal 100.0 due to rounding. Table 4-3 Sources: California Department of Human Resources; U. S. Census Bureau; Antelope Valley Board of Trade; California Employment Development Department.

()"1 0 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (cont.) Change in Emelo~ment 1959-1968 1968-1977 1959-1977 Ol Number % Number h Number % Agriculture 100 25.0 1000 200.0 1100 275.0 Construction -100 -10,0 2900 322.2 2800 280.0 Manufacturing -1000 -28.6 3600 144.0 2600 74.3 Transportation, Communication, Utilities 300 50,0 200 22.2 500 83.3 Trade, Wholesale, Retail 500 16.1 950 26.4 1450 46.8 Finance, Real Estate, Insurance 100 33.3 800 200.0 900 300.0 Services 2300 191.7 2600 74.3 4900 408.3 Government 1600 76.2 2350 63.5 3950 188.1 Other {Mining) ------100 NA TOTAL* 3800 31.1 14500 90.6 18300 150.0

...... 01

.,. 52

In assessing the current economic base of Antelope Valley and Palmdale, the business activities, employment and payroll were analyzed. This analysis was primarily based on the results of the em ployer survey (Appendix A). From this regional sample of employers 215 responses were obtained. Major employers in the Valley comprised 20 of these responses. To facilitate the analysis, the basic sources of employment were combined into six categories:

( 1 ) producers, manufacturers, wholesalers (2) construction contractors 4 (3) government an d bus1ness . serv1ces . (4) health and public utility services (5) retail trade . 5 (6) retai 1 serv1ces. Producers, manufacturers, wholesalers and government and business services comprised 76.8 percent of Antelope Valley's total employment. Palmdale emerged as the manufacturing center of the Valley, accounting for 79.4 percent of its total manufacturing employment. In contrast, Lancaster was more service-oriented. Fully 72.5 percent of this city's total employment was attributed to government, business, health and public utility services (Table 4-4). Employment of the businesses surveyed was 24,365, which repre sented 64.1 percent of the Valley's total employment of 38,011. The Valley's major industries employed 17,609, 46.3 percent of there gion's total employment. These businesses employed 100 or more per sons. However, the majority of the businesses, 55.7 percent, were small, employing 1 to 10 persons. A significantly high percent of the ______a_ __ ·~---- -~------

PERCENT EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY Total Industry Group Palmdale Lancaster Study Area Producers, Manufacturers and Wholesalers 79.4% 7.8% 40.9% Construction Contractors 0.0 1.3 2.2 Government and Business Services 9.3 27.5 35.9 Health and Public Utility Services 1.4 45.0 13.6 Retail Trade 8.6 15.2 6.2 Retai 1 Services 1.3 3.2 1.2

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = (7,357) (5,788) (24,365)

Table 4-4 Percent of employment by industry in 1980 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey. 54 small businesses comprised the retail trade and service activities (Table 4-5). An additional indication of Palmdale as the manufactur ing center of the Valley was evident in the fact that 16.7 percent of this city•s businesses employed 50 or more persons. In turn, only 9.4 percent of Lancaster•s firms employed more than 50 persons. An- other notable feature was the fairly high percentage, 14.6, of self employed businesses in Palmdale. It indicated the development of a number of small businesses, especially in the light-manufacturing category (Table 4-6). NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES BY PERCENT EMPLOYERS Number of Employees Palmdale Lancaster Total Stud,l Area Self employed 14.6% 7.9% 9.0%

1- 10 47.9 62,2 55,7 11- 50 20.8 20.5 19.5 51-100 8.3 2.7 4.8 100-300 2.1 2.7 4.3 Over 300 6.3 4.0 6.7 Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = (48) ( 151 ) (21 0) Table 4-6 Employment distribution in Palmdale and Lancaster as to number of employees in 1980. Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey,

The annual payroll of Antelope Valley employers is approximately $315,000,000. Of that total amount, Palmdale employers• portion is $106,970,000 (Table 4-7). The significance of the payroll is evident in the percentage paid to employees residing outside the city of their employment. An average of 26.5 percent of the Palmdale payroll is EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY Producers Government Health Number of Manufacturers Construction Business Public Utility Retail Retail EmE1..21ees Wholesalers Contractors Services Services Trade Services Total Self Employed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 13.1% 9.0% 1- 10 32.0 57,1 33.3 21.5 64.2 74.0 55.7 11- 50 20.0 o.o 38.9 28.6 19.5 4.3 19.5 51-100 12.0 14.3 5.6 7.1 2.5 4.3 4.8 101-200 4.0 14.3 o.o 7.1 0.0 4.3 1.9

201-300 16.0 0,0 0.0 7 0 1 0.0 0.0 2.4

301 or more 16.0 ~3 22.2 28.6 0.8 0.0 6.7 TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Mean Employment per Firm 399 78 486 236 12 13 116 N - (210) Table 4-5 The employment distribution by industry in Antelope Valley in 1980. Source: Ouestor Associates Employer Survey.

(}1 (}1 56

I DISTRIBUTION OF FIRMS BY ANNUAL PAYROLL

Amount Palmdale Lancaster Total* Self-employed 12.5% 3.1% 4.3% $1-$10,000 12.5 9.2 8.7 $10,001-$20,000 12.5 9.2 8.7 $20,001-$30,000 8.3 14.3 11 .6 $30,001-$50,000 12.5 9.2 8.7 $50,001-$100,000 4.2 23.4 17.5 $100,001-$200,000 25.0 8.1 10.1 $200,001-$500,000 8.3 12.2 10. 1 $500,001-$1,000,000 0.0 1.0 8.0

$1,000,001-$5,000,000 0.0 1.0 8.0 $5,000,001 or more 4.2 5.1 8.7

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0?-~ 100.0% N = (24) (98) (138) Mean $363,538 $613,501 $2,277,969 Median $ 36,125 $ 59,103 $ 69,003 *Includes major employer group as well as Lancaster and Palmdale groups. Table 4-7 The distribution of the annual payroll paid out by employers in 1980. Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey. 57

paid to employees residing outside of this city (Table 4-8). Because of these data it is obvious that Palmdale is losing potential benefits in the form of property and sales tax revenues from their employment base. PERCENT OF PAYROLL PAID TO EMPLOYEES RESIDING OUTSIDE CITY OF EMPLOYMENT

% Paid Out of Area Cit~ of Em~lo~ment Palmdale Lancaster 0 - 5% 34.6 61.3 5 - 10% 11.5 5.3 10 - 20% 11.5 14.8 20 - 30% 19.2 5.3 30 - 40% 3,8 4.4 40 - 50% 0,0 3.5 50 - 75% 3,8 3.5 75 - 90% 0,0 0.9 90 100% 15.4 0.9 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 N = (26) (114) Table 4-8 Percent of payroll paid to employees residing other than the city in which they are employed for 1980. Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey.

Transportation Patterns The transportation structure was an additional indication of Antelope Valley•s upward economic trend and transition from a rural to an urban region. Highway transportation patterns were characteristic of the Valley•s growth and an indication the region was beginning to 5.g serve its employment needs. Traffic volume within Antelope Valley in creased in the 1970's, especially since 1973. An increase in traffic volume was particularly notable from the fringe areas of the Valley converging on the Lancaster area. Traffic on Route 14, Antelope Valley Freeway, increased by 15.8 percent from the west and 20.0 to 21.4 percent from the north. Highway 138 from Littlerock leading into Palmdale experienced a 33.1 percent increase (Map 11). During this same time span, traffic from the region declined 14.8 percent, indi cating less dependancy upon employment in the Los Angeles area (Table

4-9) 0 Internal movement in the Valley as a whole has increased; how ever, a significantly large volume of this traffic is traveling from -Palmdale. Traffic volume increased 17.5 percent from 1973 to 1979 moving along Palmdale Boulevard toward Antelope Valley Freeway. Over the past five years, 1975 to 1980, traffic volume has increased 36.1 percent moving north from Avenue P along Sierra Highway. These data present further indication of potential benefits lost to Palmdale. Lost benefits due to employees residing in Lancaster and consumers seeking retail establishments in Lancaster or Los Angeles (Table 4-10,

Hap 12). Fiscal Structure Significant data concerning changes in Antelope Valley's fiscal structure was also indicative of the region's urbanization trend and expanding economy. Deposits in financial institutions in both Palmdale and Lancaster grew at a greater rate than inflation between 1975 and 1979. During this time span, total deposits in these insti tutions increased by $180,599,000 or 73.3 percent. This represented 50

Map 11:. PERCENT CHANGE IN TRAFFIC VOLUME IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY 1973- 1979

100 equals 1973 traffic volumes

Mojave Desert 0 1-

Hwv.5a

Rosamond Blvd. 121.4 t

Hwy.138 116.2

Lancaster 0.9

San- Gabriel Mountains SCALE 0 5 Miles '------~ AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC CALIFORNIA STATE HIGHHAYS 1970 AA 1971 AA 1972 AA 1973 AA 1974 AA Rte. 5 Jet. Rte. 14 59,500 68,500 76,500 69,500 69,500 Jet. Rte. 126 East 29,500 32,500 34,000 40,000 37,750 Jet. South Leg Rte. 138 21,050 22,000 24,500 26,000 23,500 Rte. 14 Jet. Rte. 5 36,000 38,000 41 ,500 44,000 44,000 Jet. Rte. 126, Saugus 35,000 37,000 36,250 39,000 37,500 Ward Road Interchange 14,550 19,000 19,000 19,000 Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 138 14 '1 00 11,600 16,000 16,500 16,500 Palmdale Blvd. Ave. J-8, 20th St. West Interchange 11 '150 11 '150 Jet. Rte. 48 7,750 7,350 7,700 8,950 8,950 Rte. 138 Jet. Rte. 5 2,200 2,400 2,300 2,300 2,300 Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 14 Antelope Valley Freeway 10,000 10,000 10,000 11,000 11 ,000 Palmdale, 20th St. East 9,500 7,750 7,600 8,750 8,750 Pearblossom Road (Ave. T) 8,250 8,750 8,750 8,650 7,450 Littlerock, 96th St. East 5,400 6,200 6,200 6,200 7,450 Jet. Rte. 18 East 4,300 4,750 5,100 4,500 4,750 AA = Annual Average Table 4-9 The average daily traffic on major highways in the Antelope Valley from 1970 to 1979. The years 1975 to 1979 continue on the following page. Source: CALTRANS, Traffic Volumes on California State Highways.

0'1 0

., AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC CALIFORNIJ\ STATE HIGH~JAYS (cont.) I

1975 AA 1976 AA 1977 AA 1978 AA 1979 AA tI Rte. 5 Jet. Rte. 14 74,500 76,000 76,000 77,500 105,000 Jet. Rte. 126 East 38,500 42,000 42,000 43,250 43,250 Jet. South Leg Rte. 138 27,250 26,500 26,500 27,000 25,500 Rte. 14 Jet. Rte. 5 43,500 45,000 46,000 37,500 37,500 Jet. Rte. 126, Saugus 39,000 40,500 41,500 37,250 37,250 Ward Road Interchange 17,750 18,750 19,400 22,000 22,000 Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 138 Palmdale Blvd. 16,500 15,450 15,500 16,400 16,850 Ave. J-8, 20th St. West Interchange 10,200 11 '1 00 10,800 11,200 11 ,250 Jet. Rte. 48 9,700 10,060 9,550 8,750 10,400 Rte. 138 Jet. Rte. 5 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 Palmdale, Jet. Rte. 14 Antelope Valley Freeway 11 ,000 11 ,000 13,400 22,000 22,000 Palmdale, 20th St. East 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 8,750 Pearblossom Road (Ave. T) 7,450 7,450 8,000 6,950 6,950 Littlerock, 90th St. East 7,450 7,450 8,250 8,250 8,250 Jet. Rte. 18 East 4,750 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,350

O'l...... 24-HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUt·1ES ON SELECTED COUNTY AND CITY ROADS*

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Lancaster Blvd. ~lest of Gadsden West of Cedar 11,284 12,096 11,882 11 '1 07 East of Sierra Hyw. 8,789 10,233 7,545 10,300 11 ,725 10,015 Palmdale Blvd. West of Sierra Hyw. 9,824 15,796 Hest of lOth West of 15th

Sierra High\<~ax South of Ave. E 4,724 3,140 North of Ave. I 9,427 9,300 6,684 7,146 South of Ave. M 14,783 13,959 North of Ave. P. 14,917 20,200 23,693 14,933 15,573 West of Antelope Valley Freeway 520 501 1 ,961 North of Palmdale Blvd. 15,762 10,513

*Figures above are traffic counts for a single 24-hour period. They are not average daily traffic counts. Only week-day counts are included. Table 4-10 Source: Roads Department, Los Angeles County.

0"1 N 24-HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES ON SELECTED COUNTY AND CITY ROADS (cont.)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Lancaster Blvd. West of Gadsden 16,837 14est of Cedar 12,017 East of Sierra Hyw. 9,337 Palmdale Blvd. West of Sierra Hyw. 18,561 West of lOth 15,291 West of 15th 1 ,413

Sierra Highwa~ South of Ave. E. 4,177 4,217 4,476 North of Ave. I 7,002 6,327 South of Ave. M 13,552 North of Ave. p 12,800 11 '171 12,702 14,362 13,455 17,424 West of Antelope Valley Freeway 745 North of Palmdale Blvd. 11,147

Q) w 11\Map 12:PERCENT CHANGE IN TRAFFIC VOLUME IN PALMDALE 1 ~------~--~------•A•v-e.• o._ __ +----4 + 1973-1979 i 97.1 ~g 1 \j +~ l 1- ~ I"'::;; I "n· ~ ~~~-~ 116.7 ... · \ Ave. P 1-1111.1.-!-

~ c;; \+- i i i z g ;:; ~ "!:;

(/) ~ -5 ·-:~ r1rn'~ ~.... ~..... ~.... 0 0 :n 0 0 0 ,.... "l] - N M ):> :I: ~ ~ . ~ Elizabeth lake Rd. Ave. 0 ~~ ~ . ~~ f!J; 106.0' ~ ~ ...._117.sii'i !11 ...... 133.1 Z PALMDALE BLVD. -1 ~- m E'rr~ b ~Traffic Direction 8~6 . ~ 'o-. < 100% equals 1973 base ~ )> 00 y ,.,.m,~••~ + V& ~ Aw.R t 1 SCALE N 4m 1 0 % % Miles ) 115.8 ~ < 11

O'l .f::> 65

an average annual growth rate of 14.7 percent (Table 4-11). Adjusted for inflation,6 the growth in deposits was 27.8 percent, 6.3 percent annually. Beside the increased growth in deposits, growth in Palmdale•s tax revenue also disclosed the city•s expanding economy. From 1965 to 1979 increases of 488.6 percent in taxable sales, 863.5 percent in assessed valuation of property and 656.9 percent in the property tax

levy were attained. Revenues grew at a rapid rate during the 1970 1 s. The property tax levy reflected the expansion of the city•s boundaries, as well as increased property values and tax rates. However, with the implementation of Proposition 13 in 1978, the city•s property tax rev enues declined 4.6 percent. Other taxes, such as franchise, transient lodging, and business license, also substantiated the expansion of Palmdale•s businesses (Table 4-12). Summary In a 20-year span Antelope Valley has become more economically diversified and urbanized. Business activities forming the economic base of the Valley indicate the trend toward diversification. In 1959 the base was primarily manufacturing, centered around the aircraft industry. By 1977, the base has been evenly distributed between manu facturing, services and government. Of the 20 major employers of the Valley, employing more than 100 persons, eight are aerospace indus tries. This is an additional indication of the trend toward diversification. It suggests less dependancy upon aircraft industries to form the economic base. However, the location for five of these eight industries is in Palmdale. Employment in Palmdale is also predomin ately in the manufacturing category, making it the Valley•s manufac- FINANCIAL INSTITUTION ACTIVITY Average Annual % Change % Change** 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1975-1979 1975-1979 Commercial Banks Demand Deposits $ 44,146 $ 45,316 $ 52,357 $ 64,041 $ 74,498 68.8 14.0 Savings Deposits 69,784 83,829 92,991 101 .657 117,939 69.0 14.0 Total Deposits* 125,039 143,627 157,105 186,580 219,260 75.4 15. 1 Savings and Loans Deposits 121,482 139,981 163,890 183,619 207,860 71.1 14.4 TOTAL Deposits $246,521 $283,608 $320,995 $370,199 $427,120 73.3 14.7

*Total Deposits will not equal sum of above due to variations in bookkeeping regarding interest earned on accounts of individual institutions. **Compounded

Table 4-11 The banking activity in Palmdale and Lancaster from 1975 to 1979. Deposits are in thousands of dollars. Source: Urban Decision Systems, Inc.

0"1 0"1

"" GROWTH IN TAX REVENUES Average Annual % Change 1964-65 1969-70 1974-75 1978-79 1979-80 1964-1969 1969-1974 1974-1979 Sales Tax Revenue** Total Taxable Sales $12,494 $18,690 $34,019 $43,361 $73,535 8.4 12.7 11.1 Sales Tax Remitted To City 125 187 340 434 735 8.4 12.7 11.1 Sales Tax Remitted To County 0 0 85 108 184 11.2 Property Tax Revenue Assessed Valuation 12,134 23,803 73,349 87,946 116,907 14.4 25.2 9.8 Property Tax Levy*** 924 2,114 8,013 5,459 6,994 18.0 30,5 -2.7 Other Taxes Franchise Taxes 13,020 23,703 60,176 110,734 NA 12.7 20.5 16. 5* Transient Lodging 0 4,650 45,417 60,687 NA 57.7 7.5* Business License 14,332 22 '140 23,641 21,267 NA 9.1 1.3 -2.6*

*Percent change from 1974-75 to 1978-79. **Calendar year corresponding to the first half of fiscal year. ***For county, school, and flood control purposes. Table 4-12 The growth of tax revenues in Palmdale from 1964 to 1980. Revenues are given in thousands of dollars. Sources: California State Board of Equalization; Tax Payers• Guide, Los Angeles County

m ...... - - -~-__..._____~- -

turing center. Although the trend in the Valley is toward diversifi cation, this is not evident in Palmdale. Employment and the city's economy are thus still subject to the cyclical activity of the air craft industries. Growth in the fiscal structure of Antelope Valley presents evi dence of increased community wealth, spending power, and growth. De posits in the financial institutions in Palmdale and Lancaster have grown at a greater rate than inflation between 1975 and 1979. The tax revenue base is characteristic of a growing urbanized economy. This base is a positive indicator of the region's ability to finance public services, especially in Palmdale. Growth in Palmdale's tax revenues since fts incorporation in 1962 has increased at a greater rate than the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim Metropolitan Area CPl. Revenues have grown noticeably during the latter half of the 1970's. However, these data demonstrate that potential revenues have been lost by the city. This evidence is established first in the percent of payroll paid to employees residing outside Palmdale. It is again evidenced in the transportation pattern. The transportation pattern is further indication of the internal growth and urbanization of the Valley. It directs attention to the region's reduced dependancy on the Los Angeles area for employment. The pattern suggests the Valley is beginning to serve its employment needs (Fig. 4-1). These data, however, present additional evidence of Palmdale's loss of potential tax revenues. Increased traffic volume north on Sierra Highway at Avenue P is a definite indication of air craft-industry employees residing elsewhere. Additionally, increased traffic north on Sierra Highway from Palmdale Boulevard and west of 69

Sierra Highway toward Antelope Valley Freeway suggests consumer move ment, These consumers are compelled to look elsewhere to remedy retail and service deficiencies. The multiplier effect has been interrupted in Palmdale. Al though employment is high, housing has not been adequate to meet the increased demand. At the same time, the city has insufficient retail and service businesses. Therefore, many inhabitants are spending their incomes outside the city. This tends to retard commercial dev elopment and reveals the need of the community for more balanced dev elopment. ------...---- -

Fig. 4-1: ANTELOPE VALLEY TRENDS 1965- 1980 INDEX SOURCE: QUESTOR ASSOCIATES

4.5

Agri. Traffic Taxable Year CPI Popu. Empl. Acreage Volume Sales 4.0 r- I 1965 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1966 1.02 1.05 1.01 1967 1.04 1.11 1968 1.09 1.19 1.04 0.97 1969 1.14 1.31 1.03 1.37 1970 1.19 1.18 1,24 1.06 1.55 3.5 r- 1971 1.24 0.89 1.12 1.64 1972 1.28 0.71 1.22 1.90 1973 1.35 1.74 0.72 1.29 2.10 1974 1.49 0.79 1.29 2.21 1975 1.65 1.35 0.84 1.28 2.35 1976 1,76 0.62 1.32 2.53 1977 1.88 2.26 1.03 1.35 3.02 3.0 r- 1978 2.01 0.94 1.10 3.45 1979 2.23 1.10 4.15 1980 2.58 1.59 2.81

2.5

2.0

.5 ._--+---+---+---+---+---~--+---+---+---;---+---+---+---+---1

0._~1965 __ _.__ ~------~--~----~------..1970 1975 1980 YEAR 71

Footnotes

1Ralph W. Pfouts, editor, The Techniques of Urban Economic Analysis (\>Jest Trenton, New Jersey, 1960): 5-17-.

2Indepth discussion of the multiplier effect can be seen in: Robert K. Chisholm and Gilbert R. Whitaker, Jr., Forecasting Methods (Homewood, Illinois, 1971); Hilliam L. Henderson, Larry C. Ledebur, Urban Economics: Processes and Problems (New York, London, Sydney, Toronto, 1972); Ralph W. Pfouts, editor, Techniques of Urban Eco nomic Analysis (West Trenton, New Jersey, 1960).

3Pfouts, pp. 318-320.

4susiness services are defined as finance, insurance, real estate, legal, advertising, stenographic, engineering, architectural, employment and credit services,

5Retail services are defined as personal such as beauty, barber, dry cleaning, etc., services and repair services.

6Growth rate was adjusted by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim Metropolitan Area Consumer Price Index. This area had an average annual inflation rate from 1975 to 1979 of 7.9 percent. .n_ '- -- ~

CHAPTER V

FUTURE GROWTH TRENDS

The preceding chapters illustrated the socio-economic character istics of Antelope Valley and the city of Palmdale in particular. The region as a whole grew steadily in population, housing, employment and businesses during the past two decades. Expansion in these areas was particularly rapid in the past five years. Palmdale, as an incorpor ated city since 1962, kept pace with the region•s growth, emerging as the manufacturing center of the Valley. Economic growth of the Valley and Palmdale in the next ten years is dependent upon continuing expansion of the population, housing, and existing businesses. Growth of these factors will stimulate the dev elopment of new business activities, specifically retail and service activities. It is therefore desirable to investigate future growth trends of the above stated factors. Population, Housing and Employment Trends Forecasts of the future population and houstng growth trends are determined using the average annual growth rate. Population increase in Antelope Valley is expected to continue more rapidly than Los Angeles County as a whole. The region•s current population figure is 101 ,666. This figure represents a gain of 23 percent in population since 1970. It compares with only a 2.5 percent overall gain in Los Angeles County over the same time period. In turn, Palmdale•s sphere 73 of influence currently represents 38,876 of the total Valley popula tion figure; 12,113 of the sphere•s population reside in the city of Palmdale. While the Palmdale area attained a 23.7 percent growth gain, the city shows a 42.3 percent gain from 1970 to 1980, or a 4.2 percent annual gain. Using an annual growth gain of approximately 3 percent, Antelope Valley•s population is expected to increase at least 31,334 persons in the next decade. The population of Palmdale•s sphere of influence is anticipated to increase by 10,724 by 1990, a 27.6 percent gain. Popu lation by 1990 in the city of Palmdale is predicted as 17,239, again a 42.3 percent increase (Table 5-l, Fig. 5-1). This continuing growth in population suggests a corresponding growth in market size. POPULATION TRENDS AND FORECAST PALMDALE, SPHERE OF INFLUENCE AND ANTELOPE VALLEY 1970-1990 City of Palmdale Antelope Year Palmdale Region Va 11 e.}:': 1970 8,511 31 ,429 82,875 1980 12,113 38,876 101 ,666 1985 14,451 44,300 115,800 1990 17,239 49,600 133,000 Table 5-l Sources: 1970 U. S. Census; 1980 U. S. Census; Southern California Association of Governments, ~·1ay 1978; 1985-1990 Planning Group, Los Angeles; Questor Associates. With a rapidly growing population, construction of an adequate number of housing units is essential. Again using the current growth rate of units, approximately 6.8 percent annually, housing units in 74

Fig. 5-1: POPULATION GROWTH 1970- 1990

Population ( OOO's)

SOURCE: THE PLANNING GROUP, LOS ANGELES

160 I I

Antelope Valley

~almdale phere of Influence 140 - ...... City of Palmdale / 120 v 100 ~ ~

80 ~-

... ~- _..,....-~ .,_. 40 .. ------~---- - ,..... -~ ~- --- 20 ...... lie ...... ••••• ......

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 75

Antelope Valley are expected to number 68,935 by 1990. This represents an increase of 68.1 percent, or 27,925 units, during the decade. Of the total number of new housing units in the Valley, 23,812 will be attributed to Palmdale•s sphere of influence, representing a 66.4 percent increase. The city of Palmdale is expected to increase its housing to 7,714 units or 56 percent by 1990 (Table 5-2). These data suggest housing for the population increase should be adequate. HOUSING TRENDS AND FORECAST PALMDALE, SPHERE OF INFLUENCE AND ANTELOPE VALLEY 1970-1990 City of Palmdale Antelope Year Palmdale Region Valle~ 1970 2,816 10,610 27,044 1980 4,945 14,310 41 ,010 1985* 6,329 18,459 53,169 1990* 7,714 23,812 68,935 *Based upon present gro\'Jth rate. Table 5-2 Sources: 1970 U. S. Census; 1980 U.S. Census; 1985-1990 Planning Group, Los Angeles; Antelope Valley Board of Trade. Employment growth is expected to coincide with population growth and the expansion plans of the Valley•s existing employers. 1 The region•s employment base is expected to expand at an average annual rate of 7.5 percent during the next five years, 1980 to 1985. This growth rate is consistent with the growth from 1959 to 1980 (Table 5- 3). Utilizing this percentage, approximately 8,400 new jobs will be created over the next five years in the Valley. Employment in the basic activities2 is anticipated to expand -·------~· -

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS PALMDALE-LANCASTER LABOR MARKET AREA 1959-1980

Average Annual Year Employment Growth Rate* 1959 12,200 1962 14 '150 5.1 1965 13,500 -1.6 1968 16,000 5.3 1973 23,525 8.0 1977 30,500 6.7 1980 37,985 7.6 *Compounded

Table 5-3 Sources: California Department of Human Resources; U. S. Census Bureau; Antelope Valley Board of Trade; California Employment Development Department. 77

rapidly from 1980 to 1985. This, in turn, will stimulate employment growth in the service activities3 and promote further population in migration. In view of this anticipation, forecasts indicate producers, manufacturers and wholesalers plus retail trade and services will com prise the Valley•s fastest-growing industries. Existing firms in the basic activity category are expected to grow at an average annual com pounded rate of 11.0 percent, creating 6,318 new jobs. Retail trade and service businesses are expected to increase by 6.6 percent and 8.8 percent during the same time period, establishing 633 additional posi tions (Table 5-4). Palmdale, as the manufacturing center of the Valley, is expected to show significant growth in basic activities over the next five years. It is forecast that existing firms will increase their employment by an average annual compounded rate of 6.7 percent. The fastest-growing industries will be producers, manufacturers, whole salers and construction contractors. Retail trade and all services will increase but not as significantly, thus increasing pressure on Palmdale•s existing public service capacity (Table 5-5). Expansion Plans and Employee Skill Requirements To arrive at economic growth projections, the existing busines ses in the Valley were surveyed as to their plans for expansion in the future and the employee skill levels needed to support their economic activities.4 The businesses surveyed indicated a significant level of facility expansion over the next five to ten years. Approximately 22.6 percent of the employers stated their businesses would expand in 1981 for a total increase of 29.4 percent in physical space (Table 5-6). Current employment among the firms surveyed is approximately 24,365, representing 64.1 percent of the Valley•s total employment. 78

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY ANTELOPE VALLEY

Average 1980 1985 Annual Total Tot a 1 % Change % Change* Industry Employment Employment 1980-1985 1980-1985 Producers, Manufacturers, Wholesalers 9,196 15,514 68.7 11.0 Construction Contractors 542 649 19.7 3.7 Government, Business Services 7,621 7,713 1.2 0.2 Health and Public Utilities 3,281 3,946 20.3 3.8 Retail Trade 1,282 1,764 37.6 6.6 Retail Services 288 439 52.4 8.8

Weighted Average** 6.2 *Compounded **Based on 1977 employment by industry in the Antelope Valley.

Table 5-4 Sources: Antelope Valley Board of Trade; Qeustor Associates Employer Survey. p '

BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY PALMDALE

Average Annual % Change % Change* Industr,x: 1980 1985 1980-1985 1980-1985 Producers, Hanufacturers, l~ho 1esa 1ers 5,550 11,770 112 '1 16.2 Construction Cant ractors 45 70 55.5 9.2 Government, Business Services 684 767 12. 1 2.3 Health and Public Utilities 76 78 2.6 0.5 Retail Trade 539 645 19.7 3.7 Retail Services 110 117 6.4 1.2 ** Weighted Average** 6.7 *Compounded **Based on 1977 employment by industry in the Antelope Valley.

Table 5-5 Sources: Antelope Valley Board of Trade; Questor Employer Survey. p '

The employee skill levels needed by these employers to support their economic activities were ranked as follows: basic skills, technical skills, professional skills, administrative and advanced professional skills, and other skills.5 Of the employers surveyed, 49 percent needed employees with such qualities as personality and sales ability. The economic structure of Antelope Valley is dominated by manufacturing, retail trade and services; therefore, Palmdale and Lancaster employers generally require similar skill levels (Table 5-7). Skill requirements vary also by industry group. Producers, manufacturers, and wholesalers in the Valley need employees with technical, profes sional and other skills (Table 5-8). Moreover, Palmdale's manufactur ers require a high percentage of technical and professional employees because of their involvement in the aircraft and space industries. Skill level requirements in the other industry groups are mainly the same with the Palmdale employers as they are throughout the Valley (Table 5-9). The skill levels required by a majority of the employers are for the basic and technical skills. Advanced professional skills are the least needed. Air Transportation This paper would be incomplete if mention of air transportation were not discussed. In 1980 the average number of passenger trips per business was 38.9 (Table 5-10) and approximately 16.4 percent of all Antelope Valley employers used air freight to some degree (Table 5-11). Both direct and indirect economic benefits will result if the Palmdale International Airport is constructed. Direct benefits are those re sulting from operating, maintaining and providing services to users of the airport facilities. Indirect economic benefits result from busi- 81

PLANNED EXPANSION OF EXISTING FIRMS ANTELOPE VALLEY 1981

% of Firms Mean Square Feet Expansion of Industry Group Expanding of Physical Space Physical Space* Producers, Manufacturers, Wholesalers 33.3 179,341 35.9 Construction Contractors 28.6 192 '140 44.3 Government, Business Services 16.7 60 '115** 1.7 Health and Public Utilities 35.7 59,700 8.2 Retail Trade 18.8 6,910 32.2 Retail Services 30.4 10,179 59.5 t4ei ghted Average 22.6 29.4 N = 200 *Expressed as a percentage of existing space. **Not including Edwards Air Base. If Edwards were included, the average would increase to 652,821 square feet.

Table 5-6 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey 02

EMPLOYEE SKILLS NEEDED BY EMPLOYERS PALMDALE, LANCASTER AND ANTELOPE VALLEY

Ski 11 s Needed Palmdale Lancaster Antelope Valley Basic 22.3% 24.8% 24.5% Technical 23.2 25.2 24.5 Professional 1o. 7 7.5 9.8 Administrative/ Professional 2.7 2. 1 1.8 Other 41.1 40.1 39.4 TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = ( 112) (322) (483)

Table 5-7 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey. EMPLOYEE SKILL NEEDS BY INDUSTRY GROUP ANTELOPE VALLEY Producers, Government, Health Skills Most Manufacturers, Construction Business Public Utility Retai 1 Retail Needed Wholesalers Contractors Services Services Trade Services Basic 19.0% 27.3% 31.5% 22.2% 23.7% 29.2% Technical 31.0 54.5 25.7 18.5 18.5 37.5 Professional 23.8 0.0 17.1 29.7 1.5 4.1 Administrative/ Professional 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.5 0.0 0.0 Other 26.2 18.2 25.7 11.1 56.3 29.2

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100. 0~~ 100.0% 100.0% N = 274

Table 5-8 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey.

co w

"' EMPLOYEE SKILLS NEEDED BY INDUSTRY GROUP PALMDALE

Producers, Government, Health and Manufacturers, Business Public Utility Retail Retail Skills Needed Hholesalers Services Services Trade Services Basic 0.0% 22.2% 16.7% 28.2% 50.0% Technical 55.5 33.3 33.3 12.8 0.0 Professional 40.0 11 •1 16.7 2.6 0.0 Administrative/ Professional 5.0 o.o 16.7 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 33.3 16.7 56.4 50.0 TOTAL 100.0% 99.9% 100.2% 100.0% 100.0% N = 66

Table 5-9 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey.

(X) -::::- 35

BUSINESS GENERATED PASSENGER AIR TRAVEL BY AIRPORT OF ORIGIN

Airport of Origin Number of Trips % of All Trips Palmdale Airport 554 7.9 Los Angeles International 5' 143 73.3 Hollywood-Burbank 1,104 15.7 Orange County 6 0.1 Ontario International 7 0.1 Long Beach 1 0.0 Other 203 2.9 TOTAL 7,018 100.0 N = 180

Table 5-10 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey. 86

AIR FREIGHT SERVICE DEMAND 1980

Percent of Industry Percent of Total Industr~ Groue Using Air Freight Air Freight Users Producers, ~1anufacturers, Wholesalers 33.3 25.0 Construction Contractors 0.0 0.0 Government, Business Services 13.3 6.3 -Health and Public Utility Services 15.4 6.3 Retail Trade 13.0 46.9 Retai 1 Services 23.8 15.6 TOTAL 16.4%* 100.1% *Weighted Average

Table 5-11 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey. 87 p ' nesses have been formulated with the development of this airport in mind. Two Antelope Valley employer groups, producers, manufacturers and wholesalers and government and business service, demonstrate the great est demand for air transportation (Table 5-12). Of these two groups, the producers, manufacturers and wholesalers account for the greatest demand for both passenger service (Table 5-13) and air freight service (Table 5-14). Forecasts anticipate growth in this industry in the next five years at a greater rate than the local economy as a whole. As this industry group grows, the demand for increased air transportation will grow also. Summary Projections indicate there will be major expansion in the Antelope Valley's population and employment over the next ten years. The Valley's population is expected to increase by 31,334 persons. By 1990, the city of Palmdale will have a population of over 17,000. Coinciding with the anticipated population growth and expansion plans of existing businesses, the creation of 8,400 new jobs is expected. The projected growth in these areas has been based on the anticipated development of an international airport, the Valley's current low housing costs and the expansion of the aircraft industry for defense. These factors have encouraged employers to consider expansion and should act as stimuli in the development of new businesses. With these anticipated growth changes will come an increased de mand for all services and retail activities. New business development plans in Palmdale should aim at expanding its economic base. As the population grows, the development of government, business and retail 88

FREQUENCY OF AIR FREIGHT USE BY INDUSTRY

Industry Group Very Frequent Frequent Occasionally Total Producers, Manufacturers, Wholesalers 42.9% 14.3% 42.8% 100.0% Government and Business Services 50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 Health and Public Utility Services 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 Retai 1 Trade 21.4 7.2 71.4 100.0 Retail Services 40.0 20.0 40.0 100.0 N - 60

Table 5-12 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey. NUMBER OF BUSINESS TRIPS REQUIRING AIR TRANSPORTATION BY INDUSTRY 1980

Producers, Government, Health and Number Manufacturers, Construction Business Public Utility Retai 1 Reta i 1 TriQ.L \•Jho 1esa 1ers Contractors Services Services Trade Services 0-5 46.5% 85.7% 66.7% 64.3% 88.9% 85.0% 6-10 8.3 0.0 6.7 7. 1 6.5 5.0 11-25 16.7 14.3 6.7 0.0 2.8 5.0 26-50 4.2 0.0 13.3 21.4 0.9 5.0 51-100 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 101-200 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Over 200 16.0 0.0 6.6 7.2 0.9 0.0 TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

N = 188

Table 5-13 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey.

co \.0 PERCENTAGE OF YEARLY PRODUCTION SHIPPED BY AIR FREIGHT USERS 1980

Producers, Government, Health and Percentage Manufacturers, Business Public Utility Retai 1 Retai 1 Shipped t~holesa1ers Services Services Trade Services Less than 10% 66.7% 0.0% 100.0% 84.6% 20.0% 10-25% 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 60.0 26-50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51-75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76-90 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 91-100 33.3 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% N = 27

Table 5-14 Source: Questor Associates Employer Survey.

1..0 0

"" 91 services will be essential to the city•s economic stability. 92

Footnotes

1Estimation is based on information obtained from the Antelope Valley Board of Trade and Questor Associates• recent growth trend analysis.

2Basic activities compose those activities of a community in volved in the export of goods and services to firms or individuals outisde the community•s economic boundaries.

3service activities include those enterprises which provide for the needs of persons within the community•s economic limit.

4Refer to the Employer Survey in Appendix B.

5Basic skills are those developed at the high school level; technical skills are those acquired in vocational or technical train ing; professional skills included those obtained with a college de gree; administrative and advanced professional skills include those requiring postgraduate or advanced training; other skills include subjective qualities such as personality and sales ability. . -

CHAPTER VI

RESIDENTIAL AND COt1t~ERCIAL LAND USE

The preceding chapters illustrate the economy of Palmdale, one of Antelope Valley•s major cities. Utilizing the current commercial structure and projected growth trends of Palmdale, several land use strategies are proposed with a goal of rectifying the deficiencies and developing potentials. Proposed Land Use The city of Palmdale is aware of the fact that potential bene fits are being lost because of inadequate housing and lack of retail and service businesses. Toward rectifying these deficiencies, the city has been exploring a number of plans. The Palmdale Redevelopment Agency is working with the city council and Planning Commission in renovating Palmdale•s central business district and the construction of additional housing. A Community Development Corporation, in cooper ation with the United States Small Business Administration, has been created by the city council. Their function is to explore financing and encourage commercial development. The combined effort of these community agencies has resulted in four main residential redevelopment areas. These areas are, for the most part, expansions of existing residential areas (Map 13). The construction of low interest, single-family housing, begun in 1980, is progressing toward easing the acute housing shortage (Table 6-1). Additionally, over 1000 apartment and condominium units have been con-

93 94

40th Street E. I co0 0) 35th Street E. (/)z 0 1- ~--J[~~J--t--t~--_j~

-ci ~ ..!!"' Q) ~ ""'_J"' I .r:...... Q) E"' 20th Street W · .c

SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING PAU1DALE 1980-1981

Units Proposed Area Constructed Constructed* Manzanita Heights Fifth Street West south of Palmdale Boulevard 125 300 Va 11 ey Vi s ta West of Tenth Street West 77 100 Country Club area North of Avenue P and east of Tenth Street West 90 250 Harris Homes Avenue R and Fifteenth Street East 37 50 Casa Linda Twenty-fifth Street East to Thirtieth Street East between Avenue R and Avenue S 177 250 Joshua Hills Twenty-fifth Street East to Thirtieth Street East south of Avenue S 280 600 Concord Estates West of Tierra Subida and north of Avenue S 35 50 TOTAL 821 1 ,600 Table 6-1 Sources: Field Survey; Palmdale Redevelopment Agency; Antelope Valley Board of Trade. 96 structed since early 1980 (Table 6-2), The units being constructed range in price from $60,000 to $180,000 and are offered at 9-7/8% interest. This price range places the units within the reach of the majority of Palmdale residents (Table 6-3). Additionally, the aero space industry is expanding in Palmdale. The industry anticipates an influx of 4,000 to 5,000 families into the city during the next few years. However, the majority of the housing units have sold before this growth occurred. These facts combined with Palmdale's current vacancy rate of only one percent indicates the city will not be able to house the anticipated population increase unless housing construc tion is rapidly expanded. The Planning Commission and related agencies have also been striving for commercial development in the city. An earlier chapter mentions the renovation of the central business district and the con struction of new government and cultural buildings. Currently in the planning stage are three additional shopping centers. Two centers are planned on Palmdale Boulevard near Twentieth Street East. One is to be situated between Seventeenth Street East and Twentieth Street East, the other at Twenty-fifth Street East where a large chain general merchandise center has recently opened. These centers are designed to accommodate financial institutions, restaurants and other commer cial establishments and to stimulate commercial activity in the east ern section of Palmdale. The third shopping center is planned to accomplish the same aim, commercial activity stimulation, for Palm dale's western section. The location of this shopping center will be on Palmdale Boulevard near Fifth Street West. It is intended that this center include an intertainment center and a number of specialty " . 97

HULTI-FANILY HOUSING PALHDALE 1980-1981

Area Units Constructed Country Club Area (Condominiums) North of Avenue P and east of Tenth Street West 250 The Villas of Palmdale (Condominiums) Avenue R-4 and Thirtieth Street East 56

Post Office Area Ninth Street East to Eleventh Street East 390 Fifth Street East Area North of Palmdale Boulevard 242 Fifth Street East to Sixth Street East South of Palmdale Boulevard 46 Division Street to Third Street East South of Palmdale Boulevard 64 Lark Apartments Avenue Q-12 and Eleventh Street East 48 Avenue Q-7, East of Division Street 36 TOTAL 1,132

Table 6-2 Sources: Field Survey; Palmdale Redevelopment Agency; Antelope Valley Board of Trade...... - - - 98

RESIDENTIAL GRO\.JTH AREAS PALMDALE 1980-1981

Present Income Area Growth Population* Range** Desert View Highlands Area West of Tenth Street West at Avenue P-8 South of Palmdale Boulevard between Division Street and Tenth Street Hest 9,709 $15,000 - $50,000 Country Club Area Avenue P between Tenth Street West and Sierra Highway 4,000 $50,000 - $150,000 Joshua Hills Area Twenty-fifth Street East to Thirtieth Street East south of Avenue S 7,500 $30,000 - $150,000 Sagetree Area Twenty-fifth Street East to Fortieth Street East between Avenues R and S 5,500 $20,000 - $40,000

*Approximate present population due to monthly in and out-migration. **Income range can be greater.

Table 6-3 Sources: Field survey; Palmdale Redevelopment Agency. 99 stores. In addition to the proposed commercial expansion, two large industrial plants are to be built within the next two years at Thirti eth Street East and Avenue P (Map 14). As has been mentioned previously, Palmdale can expect an in crease in population and employment. To gain the benefits of potential sales and tax revenues, the city must encourage the development of additional housing, retail and service activities and manufacturing within its limits. Potential Land Use Major considerations in locating retail, service and manufacturing activities are population, economic stability and accessibility. Within the next decade predictions indicate Palmdale•s population will be approximately 18,000. Two factors influence this prediction. First, low-cost housing is available. A large number of units, both single and multifamily, are currently under construction, and the con struction of additional units in the near future is planned (note Map 13). A second factor influencing population projections is the expansion of the aerospace industry which will create 4,000 or more new jobs. Population density is paramount in developing retail and serv ice locations. Studies suggest that consumers will attempt to minimize the distance they must travel to shop by visiting the nearest store to their home. 1 Again, noting Map 13 regarding residential ex pansion, an insight as to the optimal locations begins to form. Three areas of population concentration emerge: Desert View Highlands area, extending from Fifth Street West to Eighteenth Street West and Avenues R to P; Palmdale proper, Division Street to Fifteenth Street East and Avenues R to P; and, Palmdale East, Fifteenth Street East to Thirtieth INDUSTRIAL AREAS 1981

Proposed Areas

Commercial

Industrial •

SCALE +N 0 % % Miles ...... 0 0 101

Street East and Avenues S to Q. Furthermore, this population consists mainly of the middle income group. Accessibility and traffic volume and patterns are the key to optimum locations. To analyze the flow and volume increase, a recent survey was conducted. A significant volume increase is evident since 1979 at key intersections (Table 6-4). The main flow of traffic is toward and on Palmdale Boulevard, the main east-west street of Palmdale (Map 15). Public transportation may prove an important factor in the location of businesses. Until recently the city has had little or no such transportation. However, this situation has changed during the past year with the development of a daily scheduled bus route (Table 6-5) and bus stops along Palmdale Boulevard (Map 15). Currently, a major hindrance to accessibility is a street divider which runs the length of Palmdale Boulevard. Left turn lanes are at a minimum from Tenth Street East to Twentieth Street East. Although locations have excellent visibility, ready accessibility is negligible. This is a problem which should be rectified in the near future to improve ac cess to the available sites in this area. Earlier studies indicate the city•s need for increased social and public services. This need is because of the high percentage of elderly persons and the high fertility level in the city. Steps to ward centrally housing the elderly have been developing with the con struction of low-rent apartments in the post office area, Ningh Street East to Eleventh Street East. This area is within walking distance of all shopping requirements. Future renovation of the area from Palmdale Boulevard to Avenue Q-10 and Sierra Highway to Tenth Street East should include health and social services for the elderly and the very young TRAFFIC VOLUME - PALMDALE 1981

Intersection Travel Direction 1979* 1981* % Increase Palmdale Boulevard and East and west on Palmdale 20,200 23,616 16.9 Sierra Highway Boulevard Palmdale Boulevard and East on Palmdale Boulevard 18,561 19,680 6.0 Tenth Street West Palmdale Boulevard and West on Palmdale Boulevard 10,500 11,808 12.5 Twentieth Street East Sierra Highway and East and west on Avenue P 11,147 17,328 55.4 Avenue P

*Daily Volume

Table 6-4 Source: Field survey.

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PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SCHEDULE PAU.1DALE 1981

Number of Buses Daily Time Destination 7 Every 3 hrs. for 24 hrs. Burbank

3 8 a.m. - 12 noon - 4 p.m. Los Angeles International Airport

6 Every 2 hrs. Palmdale Boulevard Lancaster

3 Every 2 hrs. from 9:30 a.m. Palmdale General to 3:30 p.m. Hospital on Avenue S

Table 6-5 Sources: Field survey; Antelope Valley Bus, Inc. 105

The same area should incorporate some form of multifamily housing, especially for the elderly. Again this would place them within walking distance of all retail and service needs, as well as bus stops. After analyzing the information and studies of the socio-econom ic characteristics of Palmdale, three areas within the city can be considered as potential retail growth sites. These areas are: l) the area west of the Antelope Valley Freeway along Palmdale Boulevard, 2) the area along Palmdale Boulevard between Twentieth Street East and Twenty-fifth Street East, and, 3) the area encompassed by Sierra High- way on the east, Avenue P on the south and Division Street on the west (Map 16). These areas are compatible with existing zoning regulations (Table 6-6). POTENTIAL GROWTH AREA ZONING RETAIL AND SERVICE ACTIVITIES Area Zone* Palmdale Boulevard between Tenth Street West and Division Street C-3 and CPO Palmdale Boulevard between Twentieth Street East and Twenty-fifth Street East C-3 Sierra Highway at Avenue P to Division Street C-3 and CPO Palmdale Boulevard to Avenue Q-10 and Sierra Highway to Tenth Street East C-3 and R-3

*C-3 r~edium Commercial CPO Commercial Planned Development R-3 Residential-Medium Density Multiple Table 6-6 The map of existing retail structures (Map 8, Appendix C) shows that the majority of retailing in Palmdale is centrally located, con centrated between Division Street to the west and Tenth Street on the ....- -

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"M ~aaJlS 4l0"T 13 r"--r---~/- ~ ~ :§ ~ s ~ ·s ~I 0 e c.. E ~ 0 "0 ~: u c: I I -I 107 east. The fringe areas, both west and east, consequently tend to be attractive for retail and service activities. Currently the majority of retailing activities in the area west of the freeway consists of motels, restaurants, fast-food establishments and gasoline service stations. Several factors enhance this area. First, there is a large number of existing residential units as well as a large number of new units and units under construction (note Table 6-1). A second factor adding to the advantages of this area is the increased traffic volume and flow from Tenth Street West traveling east on Palmdale Boulevard. As noted earlier, consumers attempt to minimize the distance they must travel to shop if possible. With the establishment of new retail busi nesses in this area, consumers would have the incentive to reduce their travel distance. Other factors enhancing this area are the easy on and-off ramps of the nearby freeway, numerous bus stops along the boulevard, and the close proximity of a number of motels. Since this area already contains a number of fast-food busines ses and gas stations, other retail activities are recommended. Such activities include a good department store and a number of specialty shops. Also recommended for this area is an entertainment center in cluding a movie theater. Currently Palmdale has one very small the ater located in the center of the city. The new entertainment activi ties should be successful since approximately 50 percent of Palmdale's population is between the ages of 18 and 35, an entertainment oriented age group. The second potential retail growth site is in the area between Twentieth and Twenty-fifth Streets East along Palmdale Boulevard (note Map 16). Presently, one gas station is occupying the southwest corner p ' 108

at the intersection of Twenty-fifth Street East and the boulevard. This is an area of rapid residential expansion extending from south of Avenue S to Avenue Rand north (note Map 13). Twenty-fifth Street East is also a direct travel route from the residential area to the airport and industrial area of Palmdale. Another factor enhancing this area is competition. In close proximity is a general merchandise store, drugstore and several specialty shops. Activities recommended for this area are food stores, clothing stores, specialty shops, service acti vities, liquor store and a major restaurant. The third potential retail growth area encompasses the area from Sierra Highway to Division Street along Avenut P (note Map 16). No retail activities exist in this area currently. The same advantages occur in this area as the previous areas with the added incentive of no existing retail activities. New residential units, both single family and multifamily, are being constructed (note Map 13). Also the

vol~me of traffic on Avenue P from the industrial area has increased greatly. New retail firms would act as intervening opportunities for shoppers traveling between the residential area and the major existing retail center in Palmdale as well as Lancaster, It would also offer opportunities for shoppers enroute from place of work to their homes. Recommended activities for this area could range from gas stations and various service businesses to a shopping mall with varied retail firms including a convenience food store, liquor store, specialty shops, and other activities of similar market requirements. Predictions indicate that Palmdale, as the manufacturing center of the Valley, will have significant growth in basic activities. Therefore, potential manufacturing areas should be investigated. --- 109

Again three specific areas can be~considered as potential manufactur ing growth sites. These areas are: 1) the area along Sierra Highway between Avenues P and 0, 2) the area on the east side of Tenth Street

West between Avenues P and P-8, and, 3) the area between Fifteenth and Twenty-fifth Streets East and Avenues P and Q (Map 16). Currently these three areas are compatible with existing zoning regulations (Table 6-7). POTENTIAL GROWTH AREA ZONING MANUFACTURING Area Zone* Sierra Highway between Avenues P and 0 t·1-2 and t·1PD Tenth Street West between Avenues P and P-8 MPD Fifth Street East to Twenty-fifth Street East from Avenues P to Q M-2 and M-A *M-2 Medium Manufacturing and Industrial M-A Aircraft Manufacturing t1PD ~1anufacturi ng Plan ned Development Table 6-7 The overall advantage of these areas is the close proximity to the airport and/or a direct transportation route to the airport. Also present in the immediate vicinity are several freight-hauling busines ses (note Map 8). Since transportation is a crucial factor in the location of industries, these areas incorporate optimum sites for manufacturers. Palmdale is a rapidly growing community and promises to continue to develop. The projected population increase, the large number of middle-income housing units under construction and in the planning stage, and the emergence of new industries should provide a growing -- 110 market for both new and existing retail and service businesses, With careful and thoughtful planning for its present and future needs, this city can have a vital and thriving economy, an economy which realizes all its potentials in both tax and sales revenues. In the future, Palmdale should emerge, not only as the manufacturing center, but as a leading city in retailing and service activities of Antelope Valley. 111

Footnotes

1Discussion of consumer behavior can be found in: William Applebaum and Saul B. Cohen, "The Dynamics of Store Trading Areas and t~arket Equilibrium, .. Annuals, Association of American Geographers, 51 (March, 1961): 73-101; Brian J. L. Berry, ''Ribbon Developments in the Urban Business Pattern, .. Annals, Association of American Geo graphers, 49 (June, 1959): 145-155; F. W. Baal and D. B. Johnson, 11 The Functions of Retail and Service Establishments on Commercial Ribbons, .. Canadian Geographer, 9 (1965): 154-196; Saul B. Cohen and ~Jilliam Applebaum, 11 Evaluating Store Sites and Determining Store Rents,'' Economic Geo{raphy, 36 (January, 1960): l-35; Ross L. Davies, Marketing Geography London: Methuen & Co. Ltd,, 1976): 198-229. CHAPTER VII

CONCLUSION

Initially, the city of Palmdale was a rural community on the high desert. Because of its geographical location, a gradual transi tion from agriculture to industry began in the late 1940's. The air craft industry found the locality ideal for developing and testing their products. Consequently, Palmdale began converting from a strictly rural area to the manufacturing center of Antelope Valley. This conversion effected changes in the population and commercial development of the city. Development, however, was dependent upon the basic industry, aircraft, which was subject to periodic economic fluc tuations. Therefore, an investigation of commercial and industrial activities that would expand and stabilize Palmdale's economic base was deemed feasible. In developing such a plan, Palmdale's current economic picture was assessed and future trends projected. Palmdale has experienced a dramatic population growth, espe cially during the past ten years, 1970 to 1980. In this time span a 42 percent gain occurred. An additional 42 percent population growth is conservatively forecast for the next ten years. The data also dis close that 26.5 percent of Palmdale's employees reside outside the city, In this context, the first step in the development plan should examine housing. Examination of housing growth data in Palmdale reveals an in-

112 113 crease of 76 percent from 1970 to 1980. The forecast indicates a 56 percent growth rate of new housing units for the next decade. How ever, Palmdale•s vacancy rate for 1980 is only one percent, in con trast to a rate of four to seven percent generally considered neces sary for a fluid and balanced housing market. This being the case, the city should increase the construction of new housing units, both single and multi-family, Expansion of housing to meet present and future demands could be feasible. Vacant land borders the established residential areas allowing for expansion. This fact, coupled with an active Planning Commission, makes expansion probable, assuming current interest rates drop. Population data indicate that currently 20 percent of Palmdale•s residents are 60 years of age and older. Services, both social and public, should be incorporated in the city•s redevelopment plan for the business nucleus. The data also establish that child-related services are needed due to a high fertility rate and children under the age of eighteen years. Nursery schools, private and public, and recreation-park areas should be considered. Recreation areas should be incorporated in each of the residential expansion plans to accom modate the needs of the increasing population. Provision for recrea tional and cultural areas is important when anticipating a future population influx due to the expansion of commercial and industrial activities. Palmdale, as the manufacturing center of Antelope Valley, accounts for 79 percent of the total industrial employment of the Valley. The prediction is that existing basic activities will in crease their employment 6.7 percent annually for the next five years. 114

During this same time span 22.6 percent of existing businesses, both service and basic, indicate intentions of expanding their facilities. The future expansion of existing firms should parallel the introduc tion of new businesses. Several factors indicate the desirability of expansion. One is that 46 percent of Palmdale•s work force is em ployed outside the city. A second factor involves the shopping pat tern of Palmdale residents where one-third of the households shop in Lancaster or elsewhere. Thirdly, a high percentage of service acti vities, public and retail, are located in Lancaster. In an effort to expand and stabilize Palmdale•s economic base, commercial and manufacturing expansion zones have been proposed. Three commercial areas are considered optimum location sites as a result of their proximity to residential areas, traffic volume and flow, accessibility and competition. Various types of retail and service activities have been suggested based on the population age profile, shopping distance minimization, travel to place of work and competition. The manufacturing sites are considered optimum locations due to the close proximity of transportation, air, rail and truck. This study, combined with a forward-looking, active city council and Planning Commission, could conceivably expand and stabilize the eco nomic base of Palmdale. As noted previously, Palmdale has become the manufacturing cen ter of Antelope Valley. Projection data indicate the city will main tain this role, while Lancaster will continue expanding as the retail center of the Valley. Currently, the two cities are steadily extend ing their growth, residential and commercial, toward each other. An overlapping of the two cities• boundaries is entirely probable during 115 ~ . the next decade. This being the case, Palmdale and Lancaster should consider regional planning in the near future. Cooperative planning by the two cities should include government, transportation and retail activities. A regional government serving both cities would solve several of Palmdale•s current public service deficiencies, especially those serving the elderly. During the past year, a regional transportation plan has been developed, The initial efforts of this plan have been well received; however, the transpor tation network should be enlarged thus serving a considerable propor tion of the area•s population. A large regional shopping center should be considered for the future for several reasons. One reason is the shopping patterns developed over a number of years by the Valley•s residents, especially Palmdale•s residents, are difficult to change. Another is the projected data which indicate Palmdale•s eco nomic base will continue as manufacturing and Lancaster•s as retail service. With a large regional shopping center developed approximate ly at midpoint between the two cities, Palmdale could then encourage the development of specialty retail and service businesses which would best serve the local residents• needs, Regional planning is a realistic outcome resulting from the data presented herein. Regional planning would not deter Palmdale•s effort to expand and stabilize its economic base, but would most likely en hance the effort, This study is open ended. The economic picture of Palmdale is changing even while this thesis is being written. Such changes are to be expected in a community where the economy is not static. How ever, this study is not intended to present definitive answers for 116

Pa1mdale•s economic problems. It is an examination of the city•s economic growth over a twenty-year time period and an investigation of commercial activities that would best expand and stabilize the economy. It is hoped this research will be of value as background for future analyses of the community•s economic growth and develop ment. BIBLIOGRAPHY

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Appendix A

Household Survey The technique, Stratified Random Digit Dialing, is a representa tive probability sample of all households with telephones, The sample is performed in two stages. First, the number of random telephone numbers is arbitrarily selected. Second, each prefix receives an equal number of telephone numbers ensuring that each prefix has an equal likelihood of obtaining completed interviews. The household questionnaire, compiled by the Los Angeles County Planning Group, consisted of questions segregated into seven major categories: shopping patterns, travel demand, recreation, employment, population, income, and housing (see Appendix B) A total of 756 households were interviewed, representing a 70 percent response rate. Employer Survey Employers in Antelope Valley were selected systematically; every fifth business in the retail sector and every third business from all other industrial and service groups. A total of 600 employers were surveyed; 133 in Palmdale, 447 in Lancaster, and 20 major employers of which five were located in Palmdale, three in Lancaster, and twelve throughout Antelope Valley. The questionnaire covered current and future employment, company air travel patterns, air freight requirements, frequency of customer visits and business expansion plans (see Appendix B). The response rate for major employers was 95 percent and for all other employers 36 percent. @ ' 125

Appendix B

Household Survey Questionnaire 1. Where do you and your family shop for food, clothes, cosmetics and drugs, household items, and services? 2. What means of transportation do you most often use to get to where you usually shop? 3. How many minutes is it one-way from your home to where you usually shop? 4. In an average month, how many times do you have to go outside of Palmdale for shopping? 5. What cities or towns do you shop in when you go outside of Palmdale? 6. Do you shop outside of Palmdale because you can•t get what you want here or because you enjoy shopping at different places? 7. What products or services do you generally buy outside of Palmdale? 8, In an average month, how often do you or any member of your family go outside of Palmdale for recreational, leisure or cultural activities? 9. What do you like to do and where do you go? 10. In the past twelve months, how many times have you gone to an airport for any reason and which airport? 11. What is your age? 12. What is the highest grade in school you have completed and re ceived credit for? 13. What is your present employment status? 14. How many minutes is it one-way from your home to where you work? 15. In what city or town do you work? 16. What means of transportation do you use for most of your trips to work? 17. What kind of work do you do? What is your main occupation? 126

18. Including yourself, how many adults and children regularly live in this household? 19. Including yourself, how many people in your household are age 18 or older? 20. Including yourself, how many people in your household are cur rently working either full-time or part-time? 21. Including yourself, how many people in your household are age 65 or older? 22. How many children are there in your household age 0-4? 23. How many women are in your household age 18-50? 24. What income group are you in? 25. Do you live in a house, an apartment, a condominium, a mobile home or something else? 26. Do you own your residence or pay rent? 27. How much is your monthly mortgage or rent? -28. How long have you lived in Palmdale? 29. Where did you live before you first came to Palmdale? 30. How long have you lived at your present address? 31. What ethnic background or heritage group best describes you? 32. Do you have any other different telephone numbers at this residence? 33. Including this one, how many different telephone numbers do you have here? 34. How many bedrooms are in your house? 35. How many bathrooms are in your house? 36. Is your home newly constructed? 37. What main intersection or road is nearest your home? 127

Employer Survey Questionnaire 1. How many employees are presently in your organization? 2. Are any of your employees military personnel? 3. Specify the number of civilian and military personnel in your organization. 4. How many of yoru employees are male; how many female? 5. How many employees will be in your organization as of December 31' 1980? 6. What will be your projected total employment for 1981? 7. What will be your projected total employment for 1985? 8. What do you perceive to be the most important skills your employees need? 9. How many employees reside in Palmdale? 10. How many employees reside outside of Palmdale? 11. How do the majority of your employees travel to work? 12. Does your organization provide transportation for the employees? 13. What is your annual payroll? 14. What percent of your annual payroll is paid to employees resid ing out of your immediate city? 15. How many business-related trips requiring air transportation did members of your organization take from January 1, 1979 through December 31, 1979? 16. How many business-related trips requiring air transportation will members of your organization take for the year ending December 31, 1980? 17. Of the total number of business trips using air transportation during 1979, how many were to destinations with distances of 0-500 miles, 500-1000 miles, 1000-2000 miles, 2000-2500 miles, over 2500 miles? 18. Specify the six places most frequently traveled to by members of your organization. 128

19. Of the total number of trips taken in 1979, how many trips orig inated from Palmdale Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Hollywood-Burbank Airport, Orange County Airport, Ontario Inter national Airport, Long Beach Airport, other airports? 20. Does your company ship any products by air? 21. How frequently do you use air freight? 22. What percentage of yearly production was shipped by air in 1979? 23. What percentage of yearly production do you expect to be shipped by air in 1980? 24. What percentage of yearly production do you expect to be shipped by air by 1985? 25. Of the production shipped by air in 1979, what percentage orig inated at LAX, Hollywood-Burbank, Orange County, Ontario Inter national, Long Beach, other? 26. Of the production shipped by air in 1979, what percentage had a destination located within California, Midwest, Southwest, Northeast, Southeast, International? 27. In the course of your business-related operations, do customers visit you from outside your local area? 28. List in order of frequency the most common mode of travel your customers use. 29. When visiting, how long do your customers stay in the area? 30. Do your customers use hotels near your place of business? 31. List the three most common places (locations) your customers stay. 32. What is the total square footage of building(s) you are currently occupying? 33. What percentage of this space is production, administrative, warehouse? 34. Are you planning any construction or leasing of space over the next 12 months? 35. Are you planning to lease or construct space? 36. How many square feet will be leased (constructed)? 37. Where will the new space be added? I ~

129

38. What type of activity will be located in the new space? 39. How much additional space do you anticipate adding between 1982-1985? 40. Where will this space be located? 41. Considering your business expansion plans, indicate how impor tant each of the following factors were in making your decision: cost of industrial land, suitability of industrial land parcels, local utility service and costs, taxes, availability of profes sional or skilled labor, availability of unskilled labor, cost of labor, community attitudes, housing costs, availability of housing, adequacy of transportation system, commuting time, cost of compliance with air/water quality regulations, future availablity of energy.

42. Specify the percent of your firm~s products produced in Antelope Valley and sold to the following groups: Federal government, state and local government, other manufacturers, other busines ses for final use, other consumers. 43. Specify the percent sold in the following geographic locations: Palmdale, Lancaster, rest of Antelope Valley, rest of California, rest of United States, foreign. 44. What were your company's total 1979 sales? 45. What percent of your overall production do you subcontract to businesses in Antelope Valley, in California, out of California, foreign? 130

Appendix C

THE COMMERCIAL STRUCTURE OF PALMDALE

1980

Nap 8 (Large map to be contained in a packet)