CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE STABILIZING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF PALMDALE, CALIFORNIA AN APPLIED ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY STUDY A thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Geography by LaMoyne Berger Kinzell May, 1982 The Thesis of LaMoyne Berger Kinzell is approved: Chairman California State University, Northridge ii To my mother ; ; ; ACKNOvJLEDG~1ENTS This thesis would not have been written without the encourage­ ment and assistance of a number of individuals. r~y thanks to the research librarians of the Palmdale City Library and Los Angeles County Public Library in Lancaster for their assistance in finding historical and statistical works; to Diane Hamill, my real estate agent-friend, who guided me through the complexities of real estate information; and to the numerous public agencies of Palmdale and Lancaster who shared their reports and statistics with me. ~1y gratitude and love to my long-suffering family as I struggled with the compiling of statistics and writing of this thesis: my hus­ band, Les, for proofreading and endless encouragement; my children, Yvette, Anitra, and Antony, for assisting me with the field surveys. A special acknowledgment is due my advisor, Or. David Hornbeck. His guidance, advice, encouragement and good humor have been invalu­ able. iv Table of Contents Dedication iii Acknowledgments iv List of Tables vii List of Figures xi List of ~1aps xii Abstract xiii Chapter I Introduction 1 Scope and Study Area Methodology and Data Literature Review Organization Chapter II Population and Commercial Development Early Development: 1884-1951 Growth Period: 1950-1980 Chapter III Population and Occupations 25 Summary Chapter IV Economic Base and Transportation 44 Economic Base Transportation Patterns Fiscal Structure Summary Chapter V Future Growth Trends 72 Population, Housing and Employment Trends Expansion Plans and Employee Skill Requirements v @ . Summary Chapter VI Residential and Commercial Land Use 93 Proposed Land Use Potential Land Use Chapter VII Conclusion 112 Bibliography 117 Appendix A 124 Appendix B 125 Appendix C 130 vi List of Tables 2-1 Service and Retail Activities 15 Palmdale - 1930 3-1 Population Changes of Antelope Valley Communities - 26 1975 to 1980 3-2 Population Growth - 1970 to 1980 27 Palmdale-Lancaster Areas 3-3 Years of Residence 28 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-4 Housing Unit Growth - 1970 to 1980 30 Palmdale-Lancaster Areas 3-5 Type of Housing - 1980 30 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-6 Residential Building Permits 31 Palmdale - 1970 to 1980 3-7 Age Structure of Adult Population - 1980 32 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-8 Education Levels - 1980 35 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley Residents 3-9 Occupational Type Profile - 1980 36 Palmdale-Lancaster 3-10 Place of Work - 1980 38 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-11 Local Shopping Area - 1980 38 Palmdale-Lancaster vii 3-12 Shopping Trip Frequency - 1980 39 Palmdale-Lancaster 3-13 Merchandise Types - 1980 40 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 4-1 Agriculture Production - 1960 to 1978 46 Los Angeles Portion of Antelope Valley 4-2 Aviation Activities - 1979 49 Antelope Valley 4-3 Employment by Industry - 1959 to 1977 50 Palmdale-Lancaster Labor Market Area 4-4 Percent Employment by Industry - 1980 53 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 4-5 Employment Distribution by Industry - 1980 55 Antelope Valley 4-6 Number of Employees by Percent Employers - 1980 54 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 4-7 Distribution of Firms by Annual Payroll - 1980 56 Palmdale-Lancaster 4-8 Percent of Payroll Paid to Employees Residing Outside 57 City of Employment - 1980 Palmdale-Lancaster 4-9 Average Daily Traffic California State Highways - 60 1970 to 1979 4-10 24-Hour Traffic Volumes on Selected County and City 62 Roads - 1965 to 1980 4-11 Financial Institution Activity - 1975 to 1979 66 Palmdale-Lancaster viii 4-12 Growth of Tax Revenues - 1964 to 1980 67 Palmdale 5-1 Population Trends and Forecast 73 Palmdale, Sphere of Influence, Antelope Valley - 1970 to 1990 5-2 Housing Trends and Forecast 75 Palmdale, Sphere of Influence, Antelope Valley - 1970 to 1990 5-3 Employment Growth Trends 76 Palmdale-Lancaster Labor Market Area - 1959 to 1980 5-4 Employment Growth by Industry 78 Antelope Valley - 1980 to 1985 5-5 Business Employment Growth by Industry 79 Palmdale - 1980 to 1985 5-6 Planned Expansion of Existing Firms 81 Antelope Valley - 1981 5-7 Employee Skills Needed by Employers 82 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 5-8 Employee Skill Needs by Industry Group 83 Antelope Valley 5-9 Employee Skills Needed by Industry Group 84 Palmdale 5-10 Business Generated Passenger Air Travel by Airport 85 of Origin 5-11 Air Freight Service Demand - 1980 86 5-12 Frequency of Air Freight Use by Industry 88 ix 5-13 Number of Business Trips Requiring Air Transportation 89 by Industry - 1980 5-14 Percentage of Yearly Production Shipped by Air Freight 90 Users - 1980 6-1 Single-Family Housing 95 Palmdale - 1980 to 1981 6-2 Multi-Family Housing 97 Palmdale - 1980 to 1981 6-3 Residential Growth Areas 98 Palmdale - 1980 to 1981 6-4 Traffic Volume - 1981 102 Palmdale 6-5 Public Transportation Schedule - 1981 104 Palmdale 6-6 Potential Growth Area Zoning 105 Retail and Service Activities 6-7 Potential Growth Area Zoning 109 Manufacturing X List of Figures Fig. 2-1 Population Trend of Palmdale From 1900 to 1980 14 3-1 Income Distribution - 1980 34 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 3-2 Employment Profile - 1980 37 Palmdale, Lancaster, Antelope Valley 4-1 Antelope Valley Trends - 1965 to 1980 70 5-1 Population Growth - 1970 to 1990 74 xi List of Maps 1 Antelope Valley Topography 3 2 Study Area 4 3 Pioneer Towns and Roads 11 4 New Palmdale, 1892 13 5 Palmdale Airport and Plant 42 17 6 Commercial Expansion 18 Palmdale, 1950 - 1980 7 Palmdale Zoning Map 20 8 The Commercial Structure of Palmdale - 1980 130 Appendix C 9 Residential Areas of Palmdale 29 10 Antelope Valley Aerospace Bases 48 11 Antelope Valley Traffic Volume - 1979 59 12 Palmdale Traffic Volume - 1979 64 13 Palmdale Residential Expansion 94 1980 - 1981 14 Proposed Commercial Areas 100 15 Palmdale Traffic Volume and Flow - 1981 103 16 Potential Commercial and Industrial Areas 106 xii ABSTRACT STABILIZING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF PAU~DALE, CALIFORNIA AN APPLIED ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY STUDY Geography by Lal1oyne Berger Kinzell This thesis investigates the types of commercial and industrial activities that would best expand and stabilize the economic base of Palmdale and the surrounding region. There are two objectives. The first is an economic assessment of Palmdale revealing the city's cur­ rent economic picture. The second formulates a land-use plan for Palmdale and develops forecasts of population and employment growth. Multiple data sources w~re utilized. Data on the economic char­ acteristics of Antelope Valley and Palmdale were accumulated from government documents and survey questionnaires of households and em­ ployers. By cross tabulation and frequency distribution of data, the economic base of the Valley and Palmdale was determined. Physical sur­ veys were conducted of the commercial-industrial activities, resident­ ial areas and traffic volume of Palmdale. These data were coded, tab- xiii ulated and mapped giving the current land-use picture of the city. Historical profiles combined with the household and employer survey results developep forecasts of population and employment growth. Data present a current picture of Palmdale as the manufacturing center of the Valley with a dramatic population growth in the last decade. Analysis indicates Palmdale has not kept pace with population growth in housing and retail-service activities. Projections indicate major expansion in population and employment for Antelope Valley and Palmdale over the next decade which will create demands for additional retail-service activities. Commercial, manufacturing and residential expansion zones are proposed in an effort to expand and stabilize Palmdale's economic base. Regional planning by the Valley's two leading cities, Palmdale and Lancaster, is suggested as a method of stabilizing Palmdale's economic base. With regional planning, Palmdale could expand manufacturing and develop these retail and service businesses which would best serve the local needs. xiv CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Antelope Valley and its communities have been economically by­ passed in the past. Historically, the Valley's economic growth has depended upon two principal industries, agriculture and aerospace. Cyclical activity in these industries has resulted in a notable eco­ nomic lag. However, over the past ten years, the region has become more urbanized and economically diversified, leading to a reasonably stable population and economic growth rate. In recent years local officials and business groups of Palmdale have made impressive strides in the promotion and development of the community's commercial and industrial facilities. The completion of a new freeway linking Los Angeles with the Valley since 1973 has been the main focal point of this development. An indepth study of this rapidly expanding area is needed at this time. The future economic growth of Antelope Valley and Palmdale, in particular, is directly related to the expansion of existing industries, the development of new businesses, and the influx of population. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the types of commercial and industrial activ­ ities that would best expand and stabilize the economic base of Palmdale and the surrounding region. Scope and Study Area Antelope Valley, a 2500 square mile agriculture and industrial region, is situated an hour's drive northeast of metropolitan Los Angeles. Roughly triangular in shape, this high desert plain is 1 2 bounded by the San Gabriel Mountain range to the south, the Tehachapi Mountains ranging to the north and west, and desert buttes on the east (Map 1). Palmdale, a city of approximately 12,000 people, is located near the southern boundary of the Valley.