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Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin

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Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin Deforestation trends in the Congo Basin Reconciling economic growth and forest protection Many partners Strong involvement of all six Congo Basin countries: Cameroon Central African Republic Gabon Democratic Republic of Congo Equatorial Guinea Republic of Congo Major Partners In-depth sectoral studies Macro-economic modeling (agriculture, transport, (GLOBIOM): Prospective approach & energy, mining, logging) with consultation with national experts a focus on potential impacts Test “policy shocks” on forests (endogenous/exogenous) Agriculture Provide decision-makers with robust analysis of impacts of economic activities on forest cover. Based on a better understanding of deforestation dynamics, help them make informed policy choices So far, Congo Basin’s contribution to deforestation has been minimal Contribution to tropical forest loss 60.4% Changes in Forest Area in Africa, 1990 - 2010 Brazil 750 750 47.8% Americas w/o Brazil 600 600 Pan Americas 450 34.3% 450 Indonesia 300 -0.92 -1.01 300 -0.72 150 21.4% Asia w/o Indonesia -0.05 150 0 12.6% 12.8% Pan Asia 0 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 5.4% Africa North Africa 750 600 West Source: Authors, derived from Hansen et al., 2008 450 Africa East 300 Central -1.1 -1.12 Africa Africa 150 0 1990 2000 2010 South Africa 750 600 -0.25 -0.26 450 750 300 600 150 450 -0.5 -0.53 0 300 1990 2000 2010 150 0 1990 2000 2010 Source: Authors, derived from FAO, 2011 Annual deforestation/forest degradation rates 1990-2000 and 2000-2005 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.14 However this may change… 0.12 0.09 0.09 1990-2000 0.1 0.08 0.05 2000-2005 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Net annual Net annual Deforestation degradation Source: Authors, derived from de Wasseige et al. , 2012 Forest transition curve Congo Basin HFLD profile Congo Basin countries may be entering the second stage, with accelerated forest losses. South Amazon Basin Europe North America South East Asia National forest cover forestNational West Africa North East Asia South Asia Atlantic forest Oceania Time Stage 1: undisturbed/ Stage 2: forest frontiers Stage 3: forest mosaic Stage 4: increasing forest cover little disturbed forests (high deforestation) with stabilized cover through afforestation and (low deforestation) reforestation Main Findings – Demography Deforestation/Forest degradation are directly related to population density and mostly concentrated around urban centers and along the roads. Forest loss around Kisangani, DRC between 2000-2010 Population in Congo Basin countries (in million) 300 261.7 250 200 Responding to growing demand for food and energy, particularly from urban 150 2012 101.1 2050 centers, will require an integrated, multi- 100 use approach in peri-urban areas. 50 0 2012 2050 Source: de Wasseige et al. , 2012 Main Findings - Agriculture Agriculture remains by far the region’s largest employer, is also a significant contributor to GDP. However, has been neglected and is largely under-performing. Source: FAO database, 2011 However, potential is huge: land availability and suitability for major crops, water abundance and potential to close yield gap with other tropical regions. Congo Basin. Congo Basin ranks amongst areas with the highest potential agricultural value for the majors crops (maize, oil palm. Soybean and sugar cane) in the world. Source: IIASA, 2010 “Increase in agriculture productivity is good but not enough to protect the forests.” There is a need for a good land-use planning Availability of suitable lands for agriculture - a large portion outside forested areas 100% 90% Cultivated lands in Congo Basin 80% could be potentially doubled 70% without converting one hectare of 60% forests. 50% 40% Suitable, non 30% 6.8 forested Agriculture expansion should 20% 14.7 0.4 area (B) target non-forested lands first 10% 1.9 0.5 Cultivated 0% area (A) Congo, Dem. Republic of Cameroon Central Gabon Rep. Congo African Rep. Source: Authors, from IIASA, 2010 Main Findings – Transport The Congo Basin is amongst the most poorly networked area in terms of transport infrastructure in the world (low quality and high price). Major barrier to economic development passive preservation of forests. Source: AICD, World Bank, 2010 Improved transportation: a #1 1.31 1.40 priority in most Congo Basin 1.20 countries. By far, the most robust predictor 1.00 of tropical deforestation 0.80 0.59 0.53 0.47 0.60 0.39 0.37 0.40 Need to rationalize transportation development 0.20 (corridors, multi-modal) 0.00 Baseline S1: Increase in S2: Increase in S3: Enhanced S4: Decrease S5: meat demand biofuel transport in woodfuel Technological demand infrastructure consumption changes Main Findings – Energy 1000 900 800 700 Unsurprisingly a major threat on forests, 600 2004 * 500 2009 particularly in more densely populated areas 400 2015 300 200 2030 100 0 Sub-Saharan India China Rest of Latin Africa developing America Asia Source: World Energy Outlook 2010, (*) World Energy Outlook 2006 The supply chain is currently highly inefficient (rent-seeking behavior, traditional carbonization techniques ,underpriced resources , inappropriate regulations, …). Fuelwood value chain needs to be profoundly “transformed” . Recommendations on “No regrets” measures Just broad indications – need further discussions at the country level Congo Basin are not yet locked into a development path. They have the opportunity to embark on development pathways that “leapfrog” severe deforestation. REDD+ can help Congo Basin countries define a new path toward “forest-friendly” growth Thanks for your attention .
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