Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs

The River – ’s Sleeping Giant Regional Integration and Intersectoral Conflicts in the

Tobias von Lossow SWP Comments

Making greater use of the waters of the Congo could boost development across – and beyond – the , but threatens to favour particular users’ interests at the expense of others. Within its enormous catchment , the Congo is the dominant transport net- work and the lifeblood of the African rain , upon which millions depend for their livelihoods. Tapping the river’s resources could significantly improve the region’s water and food supplies, while its hydro-energy potential could theoretically satisfy the elec- tricity needs of the entire . Plans to construct more major dams at the Inga Falls demonstrate that the ten Congo Basin states are pursuing common goals – but also hav- ing to deal with sharpening intersectoral conflicts. An inconsistent line on dam-building makes it harder for Germany to play a constructive role in these development processes.

When funding for the Inga 3 dam was sus- wide in places, and up to 220 metres deep; pended in summer 2017, the government its catchment area is the largest in Africa of the Democratic of the Congo (3.7 million square kilometres, or about (DRC) called on potential investors to ten times the size of Germany). Countless replan the project, preferably on a larger branching , waterways and canals scale. This sent a clear message that the criss-cross , creating a dendri- DRC intends to forge ahead with the con- tic network totalling 25,000 kilometres (see troversial hydro-power expansion, where map, p. 2). The Congo is the lifeblood of Cen- the associated boost to mining poses con- tral Africa’s socio-economic development: siderable risks for the gigantic river system. most important regional transport network, At more than 4,700 kilometres, the pulse of a gigantic ecosystem, Africa’s Congo is Africa’s second-longest river after largest body of fresh water, and the ’s the . It rises in the equatorial high- greatest reserve of untapped hydro-power. lands, flows the length of Africa’s largest rain forest, and drains into the Atlantic on the continent’s west coast. After the Ama- Congo I: Transport and Navigation zon it is the world’s second-largest river by The Congo represents the prime means of volume, discharging 41,000 cubic metres transport in a region whose roads are poor per second. The Congo is eleven kilometres and often impassable in the rainy season,

Tobias von Lossow is a PhD fellow in SWP’s and Africa Division and a Visiting Research Fellow at Clingendael – SWP Comments 46 the Netherlands Institute of International Relations 2017

1 Map: The Basin

railways run down, and flights scarce and Accidents with hazardous loads cause expensive. Many more remote settlements risks to the environment. While the enor- are reachable only by water, making the mous volume of the Congo can absorb pol- river the only transport infrastructure for lutants better than most, the frequency of significant parts of the population. Espe- such incidents is increasing. Another prob- cially from eastern DRC, it often takes lem is the illegal “” collected along cer- weeks to reach the capital , with tain stretches by local networks and crimi- passengers generally travelling on cargo nal gangs. This side-effect of inadequate barges. Commerce also depends heavily on state control severely hampers passenger the waterways: officially more than 1.5 mil- and freight traffic. Especially in the south- gross register tonnes are transported eastern and northern parts of the basin, annually between and Kinshasa. The shipping also struggles with falling water actual volume is even greater, as freight in levels caused by declining rainfall. The flow the informal sector – which accounts for of the Oubangui for example, an important the bulk of transported goods – generally in the north, has fallen by one- goes unrecorded. fifth over the past forty years. Sections that Despite its crucial importance for trans- were once navigable year-round can now port, the Congo’s shipping infrastructure is be used no more than two hundred days deficient: ports lie in ruins, jetties crumble, per year, leaving certain settlements cut signals and (warning) signs are neither off from the outside world. maintained nor renewed. Crews are often poorly trained, and accidents a regular occurrence on the treacherous waterway. Congo II: Every year more than one thousand lives Ecosystem and Biodiversity are reported lost through storms, naviga- The Congo is inseparably bound up with tion errors and incidents involving poorly the rain forest it flows through, which is maintained and overloaded vessels; the true the world’s second-largest. The river system figure is certainly higher. and its wetlands form the arteries of the

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2 tropical rain forest, supplying the water for mains supply; only 26 percent of the popu- its humid climate. The forest’s precipitation lation enjoy adequate access to clean drink- in turn supplies large quantities of water to ing water. While the figures for the other the river’s middle reaches. About 50 percent Congo Basin states are slightly better, poor of the Congo’s water cycle occurs here, with water management and lack of funds still evaporation from the rain forest accounting leave most of the population dependent on for 75–95 percent of the region’s rainfall. shallow wells or untreated surface water, The Central African rain forest is the and as a consequence exposed to grave world’s most diverse, home to more than health risks and elevated mortality. 10,000 plant species and 2,500 animal spe- A similar picture is found in the food cies, including two-thirds of all primates. supply, which falls far short of needs and With the rain forest holding the equivalent potential. There are few irrigation projects of up to 39 billion tonnes of CO2 – corre- of any size in the Congo Basin; given the sponding roughly to total global emissions high precipitation most agriculture is rain- in 2016 – the Congo’s water regime influ- fed. And most of the population practise ences the global as well as regional climate. subsistence farming. As a result of under-

About the same quantity of CO2 again is developed agricultural structures, all ten held in the basin’s peatlands and wetlands. Congo Basin states are net importers of This critical ecosystem faces massive food, including grain, maize and rice. threats, with logging and mining steadily eating away at the forest. An area of about 2,000 square kilometres is lost each year, Congo IV: with effects much wider than the immedi- Hydro-power ate destruction of forest and loss of diver- The Congo basin accounts for 13 percent sity. As the ecosystem’s capacity to store and of global hydro-power potential, equivalent release water is degraded, precipitation and to 100,000 MW. That would be enough to river flow decline too, endangering the very supply the current electricity needs of the existence of the rain forest, hampering navi- entire continent of Africa. Moreover, con- gation and degrading hydro-power poten- ditions are favourable: steep gradients in tial. In many places climate change is also places, suitable geological formations, high reducing rainfall, as reflected in falling wa- flow rate and strong pressure, and a large ter levels in the upper and middle reaches. volume subject to comparatively small annual fluctuations. To date, however, less than 3 percent of Congo III: this potential has been tapped. While there Water Supply and Agriculture are about forty barrages altogether, only The Congo is by far the largest African river; the Inga dams south of Kinshasa generate its annual of 1.3 trillion cubic significant amounts of electricity: metres is about ten times the Nile’s and five  Inga 1 was completed in 1972 with rated times the ’s. The river contains about output 351 MW. one-third of the continent’s fresh water.  Inga 2 came on stream in 1982 and gen- On top of providing the region with an ad- erates up to 1,424 MW. equate supply of drinking water, this would  Inga 3, with a capacity of 4,800 MW, was be enough to irrigate about 60,000 square scheduled to be built as first stage of the kilometres of agricultural land and improve Grand Inga project from 2017 onwards, the precarious food security situation. costing u13 billion. Presently, however, little use is made  Grand Inga is planned to unfold in several of the Congo’s resources. Domestic water stages, ultimately generating 40,000 MW supplies are appalling across the basin. Less (or almost half of Africa’s current elec- than 10 percent of DRC households have a tricity demand). This would be the world’s

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3 largest hydro-electric project, with been discussed and planned in a regional a projected cost of around u50–60 context. Moreover, several states would billion. profit from such measures. Finally, DRC Hydro-power has been slow to develop, requires partners to tackle major hydraulic on account of high costs, the fragile secu- engineering projects. Other Congo Basin rity situation and a poor investment en- states investing here expect a certain vironment in recent decades. In fact, even degree of control over the river’s resources. the installed capacities are not fully used. The only discussion capable of stirring Inga 1 and Inga 2 run at under 50 per- conflict is the idea of pumping water to cent, partly because maintenance has been other basins, which reappears at intervals. neglected. At the same time the region suf- Since the 1980s plans have been put for- fers a lack of electricity. In DRC less than ward to connect the Congo basin with 10 percent of the population have access the Nile or the , or to ameliorate the to electricity, and economic development ecological disaster of the rapid drying of is severely constrained. For example, in Lake . Such water transfer proposals southern DRC mines often operate at reduced are asking for trouble, and have gradually capacity or suspend operations because of persuaded DRC to place greater emphasis electricity shortages. In some cases opera- on the river’s transboundary character – tions have been abandoned for good, and in order to secure its interests through a new mine developments lie on ice. basin-wide cooperation framework with international support and monitoring. The starting point for a largely harmoni- Motor of Regional Integration: ous cooperation was navigation. The river Conflict and Cooperation among system connects important inland ports Congo Basin States and connects the states of the Great Lakes Ten states possess parts of the Congo Basin: Region to the Atlantic. In 1999 , the DRC with 62 percent, Central African the , the Republic Republic (11 percent), (8 percent), of Congo and the DRC established the Kin- the (Congo-Brazza- shasa-based Commission Internationale du ville; 7 percent), (5 percent), Tan- Bassin Congo-Oubangui-Sangha (CICOS) to zania (4 percent), Cameroon (2 percent), improve conditions for navigation on the and , and (each less Congo. Its mandate was expanded in 2007 than 1 percent). Such a small proportion to include transboundary water manage- of the Congo’s water is actually used that ment, turning CICOS into a coordinating classical rivalries over use and distribution and advisory body whose remit includes are practically irrelevant. Alongside the expanding agricultural irrigation. The large volume of water, the geography also experience of successful cooperation over inhibits conflict: the DRC holds the upper, navigation encouraged the member states middle and lower reaches, and a significant to throw greater political weight behind proportion of the basin’s rainfall occurs CICOS. Gabon joined in 2010, followed by within its . Certain stretches of the Angola in 2016. Cooperation within the Congo and the Oubangui mark the DRC’s Commission also has a moderating influ- border, with particular legal ramifications. ence on other unconnected conflicts be- Dam projects on such border stretches tween its members, including DRC’s terri- obviously require both sides to cooperate. torial disputes with the Republic of Congo The upshot of all this is that control of and with Angola. the Congo is politically largely uncontro- Alongside navigation – but largely out- versial. DRC basically regards the river as its side CICOS – the development of hydro- own, and the other states see little reason electric power, especially at the Inga Falls, to demur because water use has always is a central pillar of cooperation. All the

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4 Congo Basin states suffer inadequate elec- restrict navigation, constraining mobility of tricity supplies and share similar goals and the population. Conditions also worsen for interests in this area. Moreover, a regional water supply and food production, and the political and economic heavyweight out- amount of electricity generated at the dams side the basin is also pushing for develop- falls – and here the circle is complete – with ment of Congo hydro-power: negative impacts on mining. hopes to still its growing energy needs with Unlike other African river basins, extrac- comparably cheap imported electricity. tive industries represent the most important DRC has agreed to supply South Africa with branch of the Congo’s economy and have 2,500 MW generated at Inga 3 from 2021 – particular influence on water infrastruc- more than half its planned output. ture projects. The mining sector is pressing for intensified exploitation of deposits in the eastern part of the Congo Basin and in Intersectoral Conflicts and the the Copperbelt stretching across Zambia Dominance of Mining into southern DRC and Angola. To date a While there is little international dispute deficient electricity supply has prevented over water in the Congo Basin, direct and exploitation of deposits of cobalt, coltan, indirect intersectoral conflicts of goals are copper and gold (with the region contain- certainly visible. Projects seeking to inten- ing more than 50 percent of known global sify the river’s utilisation, as pushed jointly cobalt reserves). For a long time the enor- by states in the basin, stoke such conflicts mous expense, unattractive investment by reinforcing existing imbalances between climate and fragile security situation meant sectors, accelerating negative trends, and that the Inga project was simply not viable. frequently degrading the ecosystem. For But rapidly growing global demand for raw example, improvements to the water sup- materials and rising commodity prices have ply and irrigation lead to increasing dis- changed the calculus and spurred willing- charge of untreated sewage and pesticides ness to invest. The Inga 3 project was ini- entering the rivers. tiated in 2015 with a price tag of about Incomparably greater are the conse- u13 billion, although funding is currently quences of the massive expansion of hydro- suspended and Kinshasa is weighing how power sought by all the states and welcomed to move forward. The first binding commit- and encouraged by the , the ments to invest in the Grand Inga mega- and the New Part- project – whose realisation seemed a pipe- nership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), as dream just a few years ago – came in 2015. well as by the mining industry. Completion With mining in northern South Africa – of Grand Inga in particular would make a especially diamonds and iron ore – ready huge contribution to African electrification to benefit from an expanded electricity sup- and development – but a significant in- ply, is also prepared to make a crease in electricity generation would lead major contribution. South Africa’s enthu- to a noticeable expansion in mining with siasm for hydro-power received a boost consequential harm to the ecosystem. after the country’s supreme court blocked Mining directly impairs water quality when an ambitious deal for Russia to build eight toxic substances contaminate rivers, and nuclear power plants in April 2017. The flow rates fall because mining is very water- expansion of coal-fired power generation intensive. When new mines are opened and has also been delayed, and the planned export infrastructure constructed, river reduction in coal-fired power from 90 per- levels are also reduced indirectly: expansive cent today to two-thirds of the energy mix logging interferes with the functioning of by 2030 will certainly require alternative the entire river system, accelerating the capacities, too. drop in precipitation. Lower water levels

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5 The socio-economic situation in the CICOS context). First of all this means devel- Congo Basin makes greater use of the river oping a stringent but differentiated posi- almost inevitable. But if the resources – tion on Inga 3 and Grand Inga. This has not and the opportunities they generate – are been easy, because such projects always pre- to remain available in the long term, over- sent tricky and uncomfortable questions utilisation will have to be prevented, the of principle. interests of all users and sectors will have Major dam construction is booming again to be taken into account, and the ecosystem in Africa and , but European states and will have to be adequately protected. Other- Western donors hesitate to support such wise there is a risk of drastic ecological projects. Mega-dams are potential political repercussions extending beyond the region minefields, as they can exacerbate socio- – and even the continent, not only with economic tensions and are frequently im- respect to climate change. The Congo Basin posed against popular resistance. Grave states have a narrow path to tread: The technical, financial, social and ecological paradox they find themselves confronting objections to such projects are frequently is that they urgently need to develop the overridden for political motives. This can riverine resources – while exactly that en- result in problems such as unsuitable loca- dangers the underlying functioning of the tion (for instance the construction of Iraq’s river system, together with its immense Mosul Dam on soluble rock), exploding potential. costs (Brazil’s Belo Monte Dam cost one- third more than originally estimated), large-scale forced displacement (’s Questions of Principle for forced 1.5 million Germany and people to leave their homes), or huge and The particular sensitivity of the questions irreparable ecological harm (such as the associated with the utilisation of the Congo dramatic decline in downstream Nile fish are predicated on its geographical, climatic stocks after completion of ’s Aswan and socio-economic dimensions: Because High Dam). the river is so large, positive and negative Many of these concerns about large dams developments are greatly amplified. The are undoubtedly justified, but the ostensibly German government has been arguing rigorous opposition of certain European for more than a decade for CICOS to be ex- states goes no further than denying direct panded, and has implemented measures to political or financial support to such improve river navigation, concentrating on projects. The credibility of this position is training for captains, pilots and mechanics. limited, because European companies and Such capacity-building initiatives have gone consortia – alongside the Chinese – are pro- down well because their effects are long- minently involved in realising these highly term and felt beyond the Congo Basin. With controversial, immensely expensive dam- the GETRACO project (Gestion Transfronta- building ventures. In some cases they are lière de l’Eau dans le Bassin du Congo) the even able to secure their investments with German development cooperation agency state export credit guarantees. Examples GIZ has been financially and institutionally include German guarantees for compo- involved in the Congo basin. The project nents for the Sogamoso Dam in Colombia was extended by another three years in (2012) and Italian guarantees for the Itare 2016, evidencing its material success, con- Dam in (2015). In both these cases fidence-building role, and continuity. the feasibility and environmental impact In view of the impending expansion of studies were superficial and the findings water utilisation, Germany and its - whitewashed. Another issue is longer-term pean partners should contribute even more consistency. For instance about ten years strongly to this process (also outside the ago the refused to fund the

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6 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). and the enormous flow velocity of the Congo responded by financing con- mean that the plant will achieve a relatively struction largely on its own – and since high degree of efficiency with a compara- 2015 the World Bank has been openly tively modest ecological intervention. As considering funding transmission lines to the dam lies on the lower reaches, negative other parts of the country and neighbour- downstream effects will be restricted to a ing states. While there may be plausible relatively short 150 kilometre stretch. The reasons for such a pragmatic turn, it sends run-of-river system proposed for Inga 3 a completely wrong message to states con- requires a comparatively small reservoir. sidering similar projects. And finally it is a regional project from This fundamentally negative yet inconsist- which several states stand to benefit. ent attitude can neither restrict nor prevent Despite financing difficulties, Inga 3 problematic dam-building projects. Instead remains a priority for DRC. Grand Inga will it makes European states and international also be realised sooner or later; the ques- donors into unreliable onlookers, whose tion is no longer whether, but when. Ger- © Stiftung Wissenschaft und influence on the shape of projects as they many and its European partners need to Politik, 2017 unfold is limited at best. At the same time quickly arrive at a clear decision: do the All rights reserved Saudi Arabia for example is involved in Su- undoubtedly grave technical and financial These Comments reflect danese projects on the Nile, while China reservations and ecological and socio-eco- the author’s views. takes care of financing in Zambia and . nomic drawbacks preclude involvement? SWP If so, it is politically untenable to support Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik companies involved in supplying compo- German Institute for In or Out nents, to participate in post-construction International and Security Affairs Grand Inga is a manifestation of prestige- activities or to grant export credit guaran- driven infrastructure megalomania, and tees. If such a position is to have an impact Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 comes with a string of risks. Its enormous it needs to be maintained consistently over 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 price tag of u50–60 billion begs compari- time. Fax +49 30 880 07-100 son, and appears absolutely absurd against The alternative is to explore ways in www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] DRC’s current state budget of u5.8 billion. which this comparatively climate-friendly Despite the involvement of external inves- and inexpensive form of electricity genera- ISSN 1861-1761 tors, it will enlarge DRC’s budget deficit. At tion in the Congo river basin can be lent Translation by Meredith Dale least 35,000 people will have to be relocated political, technical and/or financial support (English version of in the course of the project. Yet the popu- and encouragement. In that event, measures SWP-Aktuell 63/2017) lation is last in the queue for electricity and standards demanded – such as inde- distribution, because the mammoth project pendent and thorough feasibility studies – has focused from the outset on major users must actually be observed, even if this and investors. According to the original requires alterations to the design. plans for Inga 3, 2,500 MW was to be ex- Whatever position is eventually adopted, ported to South Africa and another 1,300 close long-term cooperation with the Congo MW was earmarked for DRC’s mining Basin states on water resource issues will industry, leaving only 1,000 MW – or about demand a clear-cut stance on the central one-fifth – for all households and other and sensitive question of hydro-power. A business sectors. Once transmission losses distinct position of that nature is the pre- are factored in, the population’s share condition for offered advice to be heard – could fall to less than 100 MW. Meanwhile, and consequently to contribute to a process the rich fish stocks downstream from the where technical limits of the project are dam are endangered. discussed, benefits shared with the popu- At the same time, the project stands out lation, and impacts on the Congo ecosys- positively in a number of respects: The large tem limited. drop at the Inga Falls, high water pressure

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