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The Asean Advantage THE ASEAN ADVANTAGE Exploring Canada’s Trade Potential 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................ 4 SECTION 1: ASEAN OVERVIEW ............................................................................... 7 ASEAN: An Overlooked Growth Story 7 Canada and ASEAN: Blowing Hot and Cold 7 ASEAN’s Members 16 Brunei 16 Cambodia 17 Indonesia 17 Laos 19 Malaysia 20 Myanmar 21 Philippines 23 Singapore 24 Thailand 26 Vietnam 28 SECTION 2: BUSINESS OUTLOOK ........................................................................... 30 The Case for a Trade Agreement 30 Case Studies 32 Agrocorp 33 Canadian Solar 34 Canadian National Railway (CN) 34 Hatfield Consultants 35 Manulife 36 OpenText 38 Pacific Oil and Gas 39 United Overseas Bank 40 Conclusion 41 SECTION 3: FIVE PROMISING SECTORS ............................................................... 43 Agriculture and Agri-Food (Including Fish and Seafood) 43 Natural Resources and Related Products 44 Industrial Machinery and Equipment 46 Infrastructure, Transport and Aerospace 47 Services 49 Conclusion 51 2 SECTION 4: BENEFITS OF A FREE TRADE AGREEMENT ....................................... 52 Lessons from Australia and New Zealand 52 The Macroeconomic Impact 53 Sectoral Impacts 54 Additional Benefits 55 SECTION 5: NEXT STEPS ......................................................................................... 56 Recommendations 57 Conclusion 58 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ 59 APPENDIX ................................................................................................................ 60 SOURCES .................................................................................................................. 61 PARTNERSHIP AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................... 64 ABOUT THE ASIA PACIFIC FOUNDATION OF CANADA ..................................... 65 ABOUT THE BUSINESS COUNCIL OF CANADA ................................................... 66 ABOUT THE CANADA-ASEAN BUSINESS COUNCIL ............................................ 67 ABOUT THE INSTITUTE OF ASIAN RESEARCH ..................................................... 68 CABC’S PATRON MEMBERS AND REPORT PARTNER .......................................... 69 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THIS YEAR MARKS the 40th anniversary of the first formal meeting between Canada and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The 10 ASEAN economies have evolved dramatically since then, and today rank among some of the most promising markets in the world. In August 2016, looking ahead to this 40th year of partnership – and with a view to enhancing the relationship through trade ties – Canada and ASEAN announced a joint study on the feasibility of a free trade agreement. The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, the Canada-ASEAN Business Council, the Business Council of Canada, and the University of British Columbia have worked together on this report in anticipation of the government-led feasibility study. Our purpose has been to put forward recommendations for a Canada-ASEAN pact and to detail the economic benefits that would flow from such an agreement if it is reached. Canada needs a renewed trade strategy for Asia, one that positions Canadian exporters to capture a greater share of the region’s demand for imports. Asia is home to the world’s second- and third-largest economies, China and Japan respectively, as well as many of the world’s fastest-growing economies. According to the International Monetary Fund, six of the 10 fastest growing economies in 2016 were in Asia. Of those, three are members of ASEAN: Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos. Asia is also home to some of the world’s most populous countries. In total, more than half of the world’s population resides in the continent. Asia’s impressive rate of economic growth has given rise to a large and consistently expanding middle class. EY estimates that by 2030, some two-thirds of the global middle class will reside in Asia, compared to just 28 per cent in 2009. Despite the region’s importance to the global economy, Asia-Pacific nations collectively account for only 17 per cent of Canada’s goods trade and 11 per cent of Canada’s services trade. There is a broad consensus in Canada in favour of strengthening commercial ties with the region; the question is how. In our view, an essential element in any such strategy is to secure a deeper partnership with ASEAN, taking advantage of its status as a trade-friendly region with high levels of economic integration and a burgeoning middle class. Our research suggests that a Canada-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (“CAFTA”) could potentially generate between C$4.8-billion and C$10.9-billion in additional bilateral trade, benefiting a wide range of companies and many millions of workers. Such an THE ASEAN ADVANTAGE agreement would also bolster Canada’s competitive position in the ASEAN region. 4 It would give Canadians, and Canadian companies, an advantage over rivals in countries that lack similar market access. At a time when protectionist sentiment is rising in many parts of the world, Canada and ASEAN should seize this opportunity to burnish their reputations as forward-looking and trade-friendly partners, while leveraging their respective economic complementarities for increased domestic growth. At the risk of stating the obvious, a stronger, more formal partnership with the ASEAN region would help Canada achieve its longstanding goal of greater trade diversification. The United States currently accounts for 64 per cent of Canada’s goods trade and 54 per cent of its services trade. This heavy dependence creates economic as well as political risks. Enhanced trade flows with ASEAN would help to mitigate this exposure. This main body of this report is divided into five sections: SECTION 1: ASEAN OVERVIEW – This section outlines the current state of Canada’s relationship with ASEAN. It includes brief snapshots of the 10 member states, their level of economic development, and their respective trade relationships with Canada. SECTION 2: BUSINESS OUTLOOK – This section summarizes the business climate for Canadian and ASEAN companies based on the 2016 Canada-ASEAN Business Outlook Survey. The survey shows widespread optimism among businesses, as well as strong support for a free trade agreement. The section also includes case studies of Canadian businesses that now operate in the ASEAN region, as well as ASEAN businesses that operate in Canada. SECTION 3: FIVE PROMISING SECTORS – This section looks at five broad sectors that offer significant opportunities for Canadian exporters: agriculture and agri- food; natural resources and derived products; industrial goods; infrastructure, transportation and aerospace; and services. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 5 SECTION 4: BENEFITS OF A FREE TRADE AGREEMENT – This section presents the results of an economic modeling exercise by Ciuriak Consulting Ltd. It seeks to quantify the potential benefits of a Canada-ASEAN FTA based on the 2012 free trade agreement between ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand – ASEAN’s most ambitious trade agreement to date. The model shows benefits for Canadian GDP, employment, and wages over the 10 years following the implementation of the agreement. The model shows that two-way trade flows between Canada and ASEAN would expand by C$4.8 billion. Taking into account the expected reductions in bilateral uncertainty engendered by a CAFTA, potential trade growth could reach as much as C$10.9 billion. Most of this trade growth would be concentrated in industrial goods, followed by agriculture and natural resources. SECTION 5: NEXT STEPS – This section outlines a number of policy recommendations, the most important of which is for Canada to seek a trade agreement with ASEAN that exceeds the level of market access obtained by Australia and New Zealand. Canada should not miss the opportunity to benefit from such a large, growing marketplace. As organizations committed to our country’s success in the global economy, we look forward to working with the federal government and with other stakeholders in pursuit of a deeper, more beneficial Canada-ASEAN relationship. THE ASEAN ADVANTAGE 6 SECTION 1 ASEAN OVERVIEW ASEAN: AN OVERLOOKED GROWTH STORY The engine of the world’s economy is shifting from the West to the East. The International Monetary Fund expects that the Asia-Pacific region’s share of global GDP will soar from 29 per cent in terms of purchasing power parity in 2001 to 45 per cent, or almost half, in 2021. 1 While China and India often get the credit for Asia’s new status as a global powerhouse, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is also a major driver of the transformation. ASEAN is a regional grouping made up of 10 countries—Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—with varying political, economic and socio-cultural systems. If ASEAN were a single country, its annual output of US$2.5 trillion would make it the world’s seventh-largest economy, and its 600 million people would constitute the world’s third-largest labour force. 2 CANADA AND ASEAN: BLOWING HOT AND COLD Since Canada began taking an interest in the region in the 1970s, the two sides have notched up some significant diplomatic, commercial and socio-cultural achievements. But Ottawa’s shifting priorities over the past 40 years have led to an inconsistent approach towards
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