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Trade Statistics in Policymaking

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Trade Statistics in Policymaking ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Trade Statistics in Policymaking - A HANDBOOK OF COMMONLY USED TRADE INDICES AND INDICATORS - Revised Edition Prepared by Mia Mikic and John Gilbert Trade Statistics in Policymaking - A HANDBOOK OF COMMONLY USED TRADE INDICES AND INDICATORS - Revised Edition United Nations publication Copyright © United Nations 2009 All rights reserved ST/ESCAP/ 2559 The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The opinions, figures and estimates set forth in this publication are the responsibility of the authors and should not necessarily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. All material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgment is required, together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint. The use of this publication for any commercial purpose, including resale, is prohibited unless permission is first obtained from the secretary of the Publication Board, United Nations, New York. Requests for permission should state the purpose and the extent of reproduction. This publication has been issued without formal editing. ii Acronyms and abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area AMAD Agricultural Market Access Database ANZCERTA Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APTA Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement APTIAD Asia-Pacific Preferential Trade and Investment Agreements Database ARCA additive revealed comparative advantage ARIC Asian Regional Integration and Cooperation ARTNeT Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BIMSTEC Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation BTAs bilateral trade agreements CAMAD Common Analytical Market Access Database CGE computable general equilibrium CIF cost, insurance, freight COMTRADE United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database CTS Consolidated Tariff Schedule DDA Doha development agenda DOTS Direction of Trade Statistics (IMF) ERP effective rate of protection ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific EV equivalent variation FDI foreign direct investment FOB free on board iii FTAs free trade agreements GATT General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade GDP gross domestic product GE general equilibrium GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project HHI Hirschmann-Herfindahl index HS1996 Harmonised System 1996 IDB Integrated Data Base IIT intra-industry trade IMF International Monetary Fund INDLKBTA India-Sri Lanka Bilateral Trade Agreement ITC International Trade Centre LDCs least developed countries MacMaps Market Access Maps MDG millennium development goal MFN most favoured nation MPM marginal propensity to import NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NTMs non-tariff measures OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Economic Development OLS ordinary least squares PAFTA Pan-Asian Free Trade Area PE partial equilibrium PTAs preferential trade agreements iv QRs quantitative restrictions RCA revealed comparative advantage RO regional orientation ROW the rest of the world TRAINS Trade Analysis and Information System RTAs regional trade agreements SITC Standard International Trade Classification TDI trade dependence index TID Trade and Investment Division (ESCAP) UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNSD United Nations Statistics Division US United States WB World Bank WDI World Development Indicators WITS World Integrated Trade Solution WTD World Trade Database WTO World Trade Organization v Symbols ∞ Infinity (can be – and +) ∑ Summation √ Square root │n│ Absolute value of n ∆ Change (discrete) vi Acknowledgments This reference material is a compilation of work associated with tracking and analyzing regional trade flows and regionalism processes. This work has been pursued by the Trade Policy Section of the Trade and Investment Division within the mandate given by the ESCAP members. It provides comprehensive explanations of most of the indicators featured in the Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Agreements Database (APTIAD). The publication was prepared by Ms. Mia Mikic, ESCAP and Mr. John Gilbert, Utah State University, United States, under the overall supervision of Mr. Ravi Ratnayake, Director, Trade and Investment Division. vii Contents Acronyms and abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. iii Symbols .............................................................................................................................................................. vi Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................ vii I. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 II. Notation, Data Cleaning and Software ............................................................................................ 11 III. Trade and economy .......................................................................................................................... 25 • Trade dependence ......................................................................................................................... 26 • Import penetration ........................................................................................................................ 28 • Export propensity ......................................................................................................................... 30 • Marginal propensity to import ....................................................................................................... 32 IV. Trade Performance ........................................................................................................................... 35 • Growth rate of exports .................................................................................................................. 36 • Normalized trade balance .............................................................................................................. 38 • Export/import coverage ................................................................................................................ 40 V. Direction of Trade ............................................................................................................................ 43 • Export share .................................................................................................................................. 44 viii • Import share .................................................................................................................................. 46 • Trade share ................................................................................................................................... 48 • Regional market share .................................................................................................................. 50 • Trade intensity .............................................................................................................................. 52 • Size adjusted regional export share ............................................................................................... 54 • Regional Hirschmann ................................................................................................................... 56 • Trade entropy ............................................................................................................................... 58 VI. Sectoral Structure of Trade ............................................................................................................. 61 • Competitiveness ........................................................................................................................... 64 • Major export category ................................................................................................................... 66 • Sectoral Hirschmann ..................................................................................................................... 68 • Export diversification ................................................................................................................... 70 • Revealed comparative advantage .................................................................................................. 72 • Additive revealed comparative advantage ..................................................................................... 74 • Michelaye index ........................................................................................................................... 76 • Regional orientation ...................................................................................................................... 78 ix • Complementarity .........................................................................................................................
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