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01 02 East Coast Foreword

We’re pleased to present these Railway We’ve worked with colleagues from Main Investment Choices for the East Coast across the transport industry and also Main Line railway. The ECML, as we call it, the wider infrastructure planning world is a great British railway – at the cutting – with devolved transport bodies, local Line edge of new rail technologies and steeped and combined authorities, and local in tradition. It’s a national asset vital to enterprise partnerships – to shape a range Route Study the economy of the UK, and investing in of railway improvements that support the its growth is the same as investing in that communities and economies along the economy. length of the ECML route. These are choices Railway investment designed to meet the expected growth From small but effective changes to in demand for rail services, and which choices the current network, to large-scale new promote economic growth – we know that developments, the improvements to the the ECML has untapped potential. rail service set out in this study are all designed to facilitate economic growth. It’s a virtuous circle where the ultimate We plan for the long term, and you’ll find beneficiary is the UK. So we’d encourage all large-scale investment options in this those who want to see an improved railway document that can keep the ECML growing to review these choices and find out more to the 2040s and beyond. But in a world about the improvements that benefit them where public money is in short supply, we and the UK. also need to be able to draw on a range of different funding approaches, and target investment in the near term to set us on the right path for long term growth. That’s why the options we’ve developed here are investment choices.

Rob McIntosh

Managing Director, North East and East Route

King’s Cross Jo Kaye station front Managing Director, System Operator Network Rail

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Exec summary Summary of choices

The – ECML – is a It is supported by more detailed analysis The strategy for Over the coming years, in addition to the ‘internal’ challenge of providing reliable fast, high yield route connecting London that can be accessed via links in the pages the ECML can be 41% UK infrastructure and timetables in the face of with the North and . A third of the that follow. summarised as an ever-growing railway, the ECML will have % UK population lives within 20 minutes of an follows: to respond to two main ‘external’ factors that GDP: ECML station; together they produce 41% The options presented range in scope define the investment choices presented in this of the UK’s GDP. 1 This sort of reach and from relatively small changes to current 1. Evaluate demand study. £570bn economic value means that train operators train services, through to proposals for and define options and local stakeholders are keen to increase new, large scale civil infrastructure that to meet it The first is a steady and constant growth in passengers wanting to commute into major journey opportunities and improve journey can enable new services. The key option urban centres by rail. The second is the experience for their customers. Network types are: 2. Respond to a full introduction of high speed rail connections London Suburban Passenger Growth Rail economic forecasts also show that this range of customer between London and the North, with the trend for increased demand on the ECML • making the best use of the current and funder needs advent of HS2 phase 2 from the 2030s. will continue through to the 2040s.2 system through changes to existing The first forms a challenge that will require near- 2012 to 2023 train services; 3. Invest in a safe and term action in order to meet demand. Options • improvements at hub stations along the In parallel with the resilient railway to increase suburban passenger numbers into need for growth • recommendations that show the need route to make the most of the ECML A third of the UK London are presented below. These include links with the wider network, and to allow requirements, the to complete enhancement schemes 4. Consider using long distance services to help with peak better interaction between local and population lives less ECML infrastructure is already in development; affordability; define demand, and options to provide additional mainline services; ageing, and much of it improvements trains on the and Moorgate suburban is at, or near capacity • near term solutions supporting in steps branches. • a package of major infrastructure than 20 miles from investments that can unlock: (in terms of the number passenger demand and better New forms of digital train control technology an ECML station of trains per hour able journeys through digital train control 5. Apply digital will be key to enabling these additional trains to • a step change in service provision to use it). Investment technology and the provision of more technologies fit on the network while maintaining timetable across the North, linking the trans- and together they is needed to create reliable infrastructure; including train reliability. Pennine route with , the , a resilient ECML that control and Newcastle; these form On the other hand, the introduction of HS2 produce almost half can grow in line with • longer term infrastructure options part of the presents long-term opportunities. By providing programme of the UK’s GDP the demands of its that can unlock unexploited 6. Remove bottlenecks fast regular travel from London to , York customers. And the opportunities, new markets and and the constraints and beyond, HS2 will free up significant overall • journey time savings of over range of rail customers provide a step change in service of mixed traffic capacity. That means that the ECML route can 10 minutes between London is growing, with an increasing number levels. be used to drive better connections and more and Scotland. of devolved transport bodies being 7. Enable higher more journey opportunities. Here, the focus will be Also presented for consideration are proposals established to specify rail services and To shape the investment landscape and uniform speeds on identifying how those opportunities can be for new and improved stations that could unlock commission improvements at a local level. provide a strategic direction to guide developed to encourage economic growth. new markets and drive growth in revenue. the rail industry and local investment 8. Broaden funding 1 Office of National Statistics The role of devolved transport bodies will be These sorts of enhancements get to the Gross Value Added So it is in response to changing railway community, the ECML Route Study opportunities, important in this respect: Transport for the of the need to align railway improvements with landscape that the ECML Route Study highlights key strategic themes that need including private North, Midlands Connect, and the combined a broader range of funding streams. Whether 2 Link to Network Rail local authorities whose communities use the Market Studies has been developed, in consultation to be addressed on the route. sector it is in the form of housing development with the rail industry and wider ECML all have visions for how best to promote contributions and commercial returns, or The , infrastructure planning stakeholders. Chief among these are the need for resilient transport improvements to shape growth in through devolved government bodies unlocking as part of the 2017 HLOS, has infrastructure that is reliable, and the use their regions. The TfN Strategic Transport the benefits of growth on local economies – published its expectations for Plan identifies East Coast to Scotland Rail passenger growth over the It builds on the Route Studies previously of digital technology to unlock capacity investment in rail needs to evolve as part of period 2019-2024 and beyond. Connectivity as a Strategic Development published as part of the established and improve customer experience. an innovative future that targets increased These forecasts differ from Corridor; this Route Study is an important part productivity and growth. These and other those used for this route study, Long Term Planning Process, but the of the process of planning future infrastructure but also show continuing objective here is to provide a simpler These are components of a wider issues mean that the investment strategy growth in passenger numbers investment along that corridor. published in this Route Study needs to evolve across the whole network summary of investment choices that a strategy that has been developed and reflect developments that affect the throughout the period. The wider range of potential funders and as part of the consultation process. And to support such aspirations, a range rail industry will continue route: for example the progress of HS2 plans; promoters can use to shape how the railway The need for the ECML to respond to of options that promote economic growth to review growth forecasts through better connections are presented in development of local and regional rail services; and incorporate revised data supports their growth objectives. growth and demand for improvements the NPR Strategic Outline Business Case; and into the strategic planning the study: processes. This document provides a ‘menu’ of has been considered in the light of the the investment priorities in the TfN Strategic enhancement options that have a strategic constraints of the current rail network. • fast suburban services that exploit the Transport Plan. These will all impact on the 3 Click for more information fit with the national network, and can Then, by applying the strategy, a range of speed of the ECML to link people to jobs future choices that funders face. on the Long Term Planning and links between business; Process be progressed for further development. investment options have been identified that provide a good strategic fit.

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Table of contents Introduction

This document is designed to 06 07 09 10 offer an investment strategy for the East Coast Main Line (ECML). Introduction The East Coast Context and Funding Main Line route challenges environment Its starting point is an understanding that growth in the provision of railway transport is closely linked to economic growth. Railways move large numbers of people and goods safely, quickly and efficiently; they allow millions people to get to and 11 12 15 20 from work; they enable businesses to connect and grow; they support leisure and New ways of Defining a ECML South: Investment social activities – skills and learning. attracting funding strategy for London to choices: Together, these activities form the and generating growth ECML South economic engine that powers the UK revenue economy, and investing in rail to promote growth forms an opportunity that an increasingly wide range of businesses and organisations show an interest in taking. 4

24 30 34 41 This document is strategic in that it looks at the railway as it is now, yet also considers ECML Central: Investment ECML North: Investment the challenges and opportunities that are Peterborough to choices: York to Newcastle choices: likely to occur over the next 30 or so years. , the rail regulator, and ECML Central ECML North The aim of doing this is to understand the end users of rail services such as ports Leeds how the railway needs to adapt and be and airports, local enterprise partnerships improved in the near future, and to do and chambers of commerce. so in such a way that long term growth is encouraged. The railway is a complex The breadth of this engagement aims to 45 49 system with infrastructure that lasts for capture the widest range of voices with many decades, and we need to be sure that an interest in developing the service that ECML Borders: Investment the changes we make now will be relevant rail offers. So, in the following pages, you’ll Newcastle to choices: over the lifetime of the trains, track and find a summary of the East Coast Main technology that support it. Line route and of the challenges that the Berwick-upon- ECML faces now and in the future. We’ll Tweed To further these goals, Network Rail has also present a review of practical changes developed a Long Term Planning Process that could be made to the railway to (LTPP). 5 This allows us to consult colleagues meet those challenges, alongside major in the rail industry and those who would upgrades that could drive opportunities to like to promote the benefits of investment grow the economies of the communities in , and to develop evidenced served by the ECML. answers to some of the questions that will 4 www.investineastcoast.co.uk

be asked of the railway over coming years. Together, these form investment choices: 5 www.networkrail.co.uk/ choices offered to a range of funders and running-the-railway/long- As part of the LTPP, the consultation that investors, choices that are grounded in an term-planning/ has been carried out in developing this understanding of how the railway works This is a public document investment strategy has included train now and in future – and of how the users designed to be read by a wide range of people. In producing and freight operators – they’re the voice of of rail want it to support their businesses it, efforts have been made to customers of the railway – passengers and and economies. use plain English, even when describing technical railway freight end-users; we’ve also come together issues. with central and local government and newly-devolved transport bodies such as

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 East Coast Scope

Scotland Route Study East Coast Route Study

Aberdeen East Coast Scope Fort William 07 08 Perth

Scotland Route Study Inverness East Coast Route Study Berwick-upon-Tweed The East Coast

Fort Main Line route William

Dundee Perth

1850s. Over the years, improvements have Newcastle resulted in significant sections of four-track Sunderland Glasgow railway being added, along with overhead Durham Edinburgh electrification, and the route can support Berwick-upon-Tweed fast trains up to 125 mph over much of its length, from King’s Cross in London to

Leeds and Edinburgh. Adjacent routes that offer connections to destinations in London, , East Newcastle Ilkley Sunderland York Anglia, , the , the railway faces in terms of growth. Line CarlisleSkipton Durham , and the North East. capacity – the number of trains per hour Leeds Hull that can fit on a section of route – is Middlesbrough An important consideration in ultimately limited by signalling technology; WakefieldDarlington Grimsby Doncaster understanding the nature of this railway and much of the ECML is at or near line Northallerton is the diversity of train services that it capacity. But equally, the interaction of She†eld supports. 125mph passenger trains share trains also causes constraints. Faster trains Harrogate Ilkley Lincoln the infrastructure with freight services catch up slower ones and can only pass York Newark Leeds Selby that carry millions of tonnes of goods where additional tracks are available; the Bradford Hull

and commodities to and from ports and stopping patterns of some trains mean Wakefield Grimsby terminals across the national network; that the space needed for others to run Doncaster urban and inter-urban services also use can be limited; and where the paths of She†eld Retford Peterborough As part of the rail industry strategic the same network to transport millions of trains cross, space on the network is taken Lincoln planning, the scope of the railway covered passengers into London, Leeds, Newcastle up to make sure that safe margins are Newark Ely in this document has been defined and the other urban centres across the kept at intersections. The result of these Grantham according to the geography shown in the route. Direct cross-country trains use the limitations is that the choice of changes Nottingham map below. It represents a network that route to link destinations in southern and that customers want to see in rail transport supports passengers and freight end users, southwest and the Midlands with can be affected: opportunities for new Peterborough and which contributes to a large part of Yorkshire, the North East and Scotland. At passenger and freight services are limited, Ely the UK economy. the southern end of the route, the Moorgate as is flexibility in specifying new timetables. and Hertford loop branches accommodate Cambridge The ECML route aligns to the organisational frequent -type services into London, These are the challenges that have to LONDON Stevenage KINGS CROSS geography of the rail industry, and the while ‘outer suburban’ services allow be addressed when considering how to Moorgate different rail service sectors that operate travellers to commute into London daily provide additional services on a network on the route. Where there are ‘boundaries’ from Stevenage, Cambridge, Peterborough that is already busy. LONDON KINGS CROSS – with Scotland or – these and beyond. A portion of the route links Moorgate are conceptual not physical. In looking at the east coast ports and Peterborough to Where the aim is to meet demand in demand and the needs of the people that Doncaster via Lincoln – this forms part of existing services by providing more seats use the railway, analysis has taken account a national strategic freight corridor as well or longer trains, the challenge can also of the whole journey that trains make. In providing local passenger services. be physical – will longer trains fit in the this way, the investment focus remains platforms, sidings or depots that they on services, and remains fully aligned These services enable connections to be intend to stop at? Is there sufficient electric to analysis in neighbouring areas. This made not just to London, but between power for them to draw on? alignment is managed nationally through those destinations, linking towns and cities the LTPP; rail studies that cover adjacent along the east of the UK that account for a The enhancement choices presented 7 https://www.networkrail. co.uk/running-the-railway/ routes in Scotland and England can be third of the UK population, and almost half later in the document will be focussed on long-term-planning/ found on the Network Rail website. 7 of its economic output.8 how existing infrastructure can best be

8 Office of National Statistics used, and also ways in which it could be Gross Value Added The ECML – runs on an alignment that In the diversity of services using the upgraded to accommodate demand and dates back to its construction in the infrastructure lie some of the key challenges promote growth.

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HS2 provides a once in a generation opportunity to see a step-change in the Context and challenges provision of rail; it’s an opportunity that the ECML services and infrastructure will need to respond to in coming years. The Northern Powerhouse Rail programme Demand and growth To avoid diluting the importance of freight across the whole geography, a being led by Transport for the North aims to separate ECML freight demand and context drive economic growth by providing faster As a whole, the ECML enables in excess of 80 ‘’ has been produced to read and more frequent links between the North’s million passenger journeys per year, covering alongside this document.10 major cities. This will involve using HS2 some 8.3 billion passenger kilometres. infrastructure where appropriate; Network In 2014-2015, the East Coast franchise Then, based on both passenger and freight Rail and HS2 Ltd are developing options that delivered £233m in franchise payments to demand, a range of changes and upgrades will support TfN’s business case submission government. will be considered that can respond to by the end of 2018. demand, and drive growth. To understand what HS2 also presents opportunities south of changes may be required York. Many of the passengers currently ECML enables of the railway, economic The starting point using the southern end of the ECML who analysis has been are travelling between London and York, in excess of 80 carried out as part of the When creating demand forecasts and Newcastle, Leeds and Edinburgh will be able planning process. This modelling the proposed changes to railway to use HS2 when Phase 2b is delivered. This million passenger allows demand to be services and infrastructure, it is necessary to presents an opportunity to use the ECML journeys per year, forecast: demand for have a ‘baseline’ against which comparisons to offer other services that make use of the increased use of existing can be made. To do this, assumptions need capacity released. covering some 8.3 services (more seats needed to be made; these include the characteristics on current journeys), and of the rolling stock using and planned to use billion passenger demand for new services the railway, and also assumptions around that increase opportunities what infrastructure will be available. Funding environment kilometres. to travel between places (better connectivity).9 On the ECML, a fleet of new Intercity Express Trains will be introduced from 2018 to the Both types of demand affect economic early 2020s. These new trains will be enabled Historically, railway infrastructure Overall, this means that improvements in growth: if there aren’t enough seats or by a series of infrastructure enhancements improvements in the UK have rail infrastructure should not be seen as an competitive freight paths to meet demand, automatic pipeline of upgrades awaiting Through rail industry Market that have been targeted for delivery: they been funded centrally, via national Studies, improvements in the economy will be slowed; equally, providing include additional tracks, loops that allow delivery; rather, they are choices that may connectivity have been better connectivity will unlock opportunities governments and Network Rail raising or may not be taken forward depending on expressed as ‘conditional overtaking, and a separated junction that outputs’. These describe to drive further growth. So the two investment allows trains to cross the ECML without capital against its asset base. Where whether they meet the needs of rail users, improvements in service themes that are addressed in this document conflicting with through services.11 With this external, ‘third party’ investment has provide a value for money investment, and frequency and journey time. are firstly to prevent rail travel restricting Conditional outputs are infrastructure in place, the timetable can be occurred, it has typically been for are affordable. aspirational targets that growth, and also to promote opportunities to recast to optimise the operation of the new illustrate how the railway allow rail to facilitate economic growth. faster trains. This will result in better journey smaller-scale improvements. To respond to such a funding environment, can respond to and drive this document seeks to emphasise that rail growth. With conditional times, more frequent services, and more Recent rail industry developments have outputs, it is possible to test Increases in existing demand present improvements are choices, and to present seats. The demand forecasting has been seen a shift in that model. Network Rail different service levels and to a challenge to the industry that can carried out with this in mind. a range of strategically-aligned choices to understand what changes need either be met by providing more seats has been reclassified as a publicly-funded to be made to accommodate a broad range of funders and investors. additional services. Those or wagons (usually this means longer Some assumptions also have to be made body without the ability to finance pairs of towns or cities which trains or new rolling stock), or by providing about what the longer term future holds enhancements through financial markets. are set the fastest and most an increased frequency of service – Alongside this shift, a move to devolving frequent conditional outputs for the railway. The UK government is are those which are expected more trains. Promoting growth through supporting a long term national strategy decisions and spending on transport to drive the most benefit in better connectivity often requires more that sees new high speed railway as a key infrastructure to a more local level has terms of the economy, benefits to individuals and train services. to unlocking more capacity and supporting seen the creation of Combined Authorities the environment. growth through better, faster connections, and Sub-National Transport Bodies, as In this document, passenger demand will be especially between the south of the country well other organisations with a wider 09 Rail Long Distance summarised for each of the route sections Market Study and the Midlands and the North. Plans to brief such as Local Enterprise Partnerships within the geographic scope. Freight services deliver HS2 are already in an advanced (LEPs). These groups are able to define the 10 are often long distance, covering more than Link to Freight Demand state, and in developing this strategy it is railway needs in their area, and apply for and Context document one section of the ECML – indeed of the assumed that HS2 will connect with the national network. government funding – or attract or provide 11 Details of the schemes ECML in the York area by the 2030s. This will third party investment – to meet those planned for delivery can be allow new services to continue from the HS2 needs. found in the Network Rail line onto the national network serving York, Enhancements Delivery Plan Darlington, Durham and Newcastle.

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New ways of attracting funding Defining a strategy and generating revenue for growth 1. Evaluate demand and These benefits would accrue to a range Network Rail and the wider industry One of the aims of this document is to define options to meet it have recognised the need to respond of organisations: provide a strategic view of the direction to the challenges of demonstrating • existing franchise operators and that the ECML should take. In identifying affordability and efficiency for railway their shareholders; the strategy, the rail industry Long Term A key purpose of the enhancements. The recent report by Planning Process has been used to consult strategy is to define • national governments through the a wide range of stakeholders. In this options that respond Professor Peter Hansford provides payment of franchise premiums and way, the needs of passengers and freight to immediate and strategic direction in this area. 12 the profitability of Network Rail; users and their advocates – the operating near term increases companies – have come to the fore. in demand. These Where faster journey times or new journey • open access and freight operators These needs have then been looked at in could range from opportunities and the opening of new and their shareholders; terms of the current and future transport options that enable markets are made possible, increased environment, and railway operational and trade-offs between the different services revenue becomes possible. This will, and • businesses in towns and cities served by the railway; asset management strategies. that use the network, through to affordable always has, aided the affordability of improvements in infrastructure and using schemes, as the funder can recover much The result shows that the already- planned renewal and maintenance work to of the increased revenue through increases • developers wishing to build and sell property that benefits from rail links; busy ECML railway, is going to need enable the network to deliver more. in franchise payments or reductions in to respond to the demands of growth, subsidy. However, in many cases this will not • planning authorities who will see from a broad range of stakeholders; it Trade-offs and choices to respond to be sufficient to give a funder an adequate their regional economies and rates will do so against a background of rapid increases in demand can include: financial return on the full investment. In revenue grow; developments in transport technology, these cases, the challenge becomes one pressing environmental concerns, and • Making changes to timetables of identifying what additional benefits are • owners of land and property competing claims for funding resources. (for instance stopping patterns). made possible by investment, and then (individuals and businesses) who This picture contains both challenges and finding ways for investors to see a return see an increase in the value of their opportunities that need to be addressed • Rolling stock changes like high- on their outlay. (Many funders may not land and property as a result of the by a strategy that can be used to inform performing commuter trains or more seek a direct financial return as these other rail investment. investment choices that meet and promote powerful freight locomotives. benefits may justify their investment.) Realising a return on rail investment across demand, and to shape how the London Later in this document, investment options such a broad range of stakeholders is not North East and East Midlands (LNE & EM) • Technological interventions like are presented that offer a mixture of straightforward, and innovative ways of Route includes those aspirations as part of digital signalling and traffic improved reliability, additional service benefits sharing and financing need to be its business model. management solutions. opportunities, new travel markets, explored. Network Rail, on behalf of the property development, faster journey rail industry, encourages further debate in Overall, the strategy for the ECML can be • Physical civil engineering times, heightened safety and better socio- this area, to find ways to make innovative captured in eight steps: infrastructure improvements like economic and environmental outcomes investment models a reality. additional tracks. (for example, urban regeneration or 1. Evaluate demand and define options cleaner air through less traffic waiting at to meet it. Looking ahead over the next 5 to 10 years level crossings). 2. Respond to a full range of customer and defining how demand for existing and funder needs. services is likely to grow will enable an 3. Invest in a safe and resilient railway. understanding of whether extra capacity 4.  Consider affordability; define is required. Once an understanding of improvements in steps. additional capacity has been formed, ways 5.  Apply digital technologies including to meet demand will be identified. Longer train control. term forecasts will also be made; this will 6.  Remove bottlenecks and the guide a more strategic understanding of constraints of mixed traffic. how the railway needs to change, and how 13 Recent research by 7. Enable higher more uniform speeds. near-term changes can be integrated into Transport Focus shows reliability-related 8. Broaden funding opportunities. a longer-term vision. improvements form 4 out of the top 10 priorities for rail passengers in 2017. Rail passengers’ priorities for 12 www.thehansfordreview.co.uk improvements 2017.

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2. Respond to a full range of funder It also encapsulates the ability of the rail system Digital technology should allow us to optimise the • More of the beneficiaries of rail improvements to recover when things do go wrong. Preventing need for conventional civil engineering. Significant should be encouraged to invest: for example and customer needs loss of service and recovering from it better are rail opportunities exist to integrate operations with train housing, land and commercial property performance areas that offer enormous opportunities and freight companies in order to manage rolling developers. in terms of improving passenger experience and stock and crew, and to improve customer experience The aim here is to acknowledge realising financial benefits.12 Driving improvements – especially through improved information flows; • Opportunities to employ pooled and shared that the range of organisations in resilience is expected to drive reductions in safety these opportunities should be pursued alongside train funding models should be sought. interested in investing in risk because, the less remedial activity that has to take control. rail transport schemes has place, the safer passengers, rail workers and members • Rail improvements should be aligned with local broadened, and will grow further. of the public will be. planning strategic priorities and funding. Commercial organisations may look to rail to provide 6. Remove bottlenecks and the direct financial returns, or to unlock the benefits of When specifying enhancements to the railway, • Innovative ways of financing and leveraging the improved business to business links; local authorities will building-in resilience, and designing-for resilience will constraints of mixed traffic returns made possible by rail should want to use rail transport to driver wider economic benefits be key considerations. be explored. for whole communities. That means that rail investment Where infrastructure strategies will need to canvas a range of stakeholders improvements are an option, Broadening funding is a strategic theme that goes and understand the outputs that they require: it is the 4. Consider affordability; define consideration will be given to hand-in-hand with responding to a greater range of approach that has been used in preparing this study. the root causes of capacity potential investors. Opportunities need to be presented To meet such requirements, a range of strategically improvements in steps limitations – for instance in such a way that potential investors can understand viable solutions need to be developed and offered how fast and slow services a clear route to benefits; and more, innovative ways as choices. Affordability is a factor that can run on the same route without getting in each of bringing investment into the railway need to be the strategy must also address. other’s way. considered. The railway must compete for 3. Invest in a safe and scarce funding and resources. For the ECML this theme is an overriding concern when The remainder of this document has been organised To address these issues, this attempting to manage demand and promote growth. according to geographic sections of the ECML route resilient railway strategy seeks to promote an Railway upgrades should seek to address these issues. that correspond to service patterns, local strategic incremental approach to enhancements. plans, and railway geography. Each section will provide The ECML strategy will seek an overview of: to put in place safer, more In presenting investment choices, there is a danger 7. Enable higher more resilient systems: that means that a perception emerges that only long term, high • The Trains: current services and sectors. designing infrastructure that impact railway enhancements are desirable. The uniform speeds • The Region: the local economy that the railway poses less risk to those who use aim of this theme is firstly to show where lower cost serves. it or repair it; it means designing choices exist, and secondly to illustrate how long One of the main selling systems better able to withstand environmental term service aspirations might be delivered through points of rail travel over other • Growth: medium and long term demand and the conditions and physical wear, and also managing a series of individual affordable steps, with each modes is speed: journey time service outputs needed to meet it. recovery from asset failures better with less impact stage contributing incremental benefits while still improvements are a key way on rail users. Resilience is closely associated with the contributing to an overall strategic set of outputs that in which economic benefits are • Strategic Highlights: how the themes that performance of the railway: reliability allows punctuality. can drive real economic change. realised through train travel. underpin the ECML strategy shape change. It is the strategic ‘lever’ best able to influence ‘Train time’ – the ability to work day-to-day performance. or do other things while travelling 5. Apply digital technologies – is currently an important differentiator between train Railway sections covered Resilience and safety can be difficult ideas to capture travel and car travel. But with autonomous vehicle in terms of rail enhancements. The railway is a safe including train control technology moving at pace, over the longer term, rail system because it is already designed and operated will increasingly rely on reducing journey times in order 1. London King’s Cross to Peterborough to strict standards and processes. And changes to the Bringing new digital technology to remain competitive. Enabling trains to run faster will railway system have to conform to these rules. But, to bear on the issues that limit be central to this goal. 2. Peterborough to Doncaster and Leeds by being explicit about promoting improved safety growth is a pillar that supports when specifying changes and upgrades, it is possible this strategy. New approaches 3. Doncaster to York and Newcastle to go beyond mandatory specifications and drive to train control offer ways 8. Broaden funding opportunities improvements in what is already a very safe way to to increase line capacity on 4. Newcastle to Berwick-upon-Tweed travel. So, as part of this strategic theme, specifying and existing track layouts. By linking designing enhancements with safety in mind will be to new approaches to traffic The ability to deliver The ECML also stretches some 54 miles from promoted. management, this also has the potential to make enhancements flexibility,Berwick-upon-Tweed to Edinburgh. The strategic the timetable more reliable by providing smart ways in steps, should also be investments for this section of the route are contained Resilience and safety are intrinsically linked. Resilience to avoid and recover from disruption, and to improve matched by a broader, in the Scotland Route Study, available on the Network means that the railway system should be resistant to the safety through enhanced train protection. more flexible approach to Rail website.14 things that cause disruption to the service it provides: for funding and financing railway 14 www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/ example, extreme weather conditions or trespass onto enhancements. uploads/2016/11/Scotland-Route-Study.pdf railway lines.

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With its London home in one of the Hertfordshire and are country’s great stations – King’s Cross – significant economic engines in their own this southern portion of the ECML runs right generating over £60bn in economic 76 miles to Peterborough. Along with the output. Hertfordshire boasts a high level Hertford Loops and Moorgate branch, entrepreneurial endeavour and is also the railway here provides for millions of home to a highly-skilled workforce. This daily journeys into and out of the capital. is a fact reflected in the clustering of high tech industry along the ECML route. With major sites at Stevenage and Ware, The trains GlaxoSmithKline has invested significantly in the county, while Airbus have recently Currently, up to 6 long distance high speed underwritten the importance of a trains leave London King’s Cross each hour, knowledge-based economy through the with franchised and open access operators opening of a new education centre at its serving destinations in Lincolnshire, space research site in Stevenage. Yorkshire, the North East and Scotland. With a world class university at its core, Outer suburban services link London with promoting the links between education, Stevenage, Cambridge, King’s Lynn and skills, research and innovation characterise Peterborough, and a metro-style commuter Cambridgeshire’s economic strategy. As services links Hertfordshire with central a result, the demands for a highly skilled London via the Moorgate branch. workforce have contributed to Cambridge having the fifth fastest growing population From 2018, with the introduction of the in the UK. And linking skills, innovation and timetable, the ECML is linked a qualified workforce is reflected in the with the railway network south of London, importance of the rail corridor from the and services will run from Sussex and ECML up to Cambridge which will see 6 off south London, through central London to peak services per hour to London King’s Stevenage, Peterborough, Cambridge and Cross from 2018. King’s Lynn. The inner suburban services that link Moorgate with the Hertford loop Peterborough is a key hub on the ECML. will also increase in frequency. A mix of It forms the northern end of the London new 8 and 12 car trains will be used, suburban network, and also links services offering an increase in passenger capacity from with the North and East to serve the capital. Midlands. With a main line journey time of 50 minutes to London, and relatively Freight traffic on this section of the route low property and land costs, Peterborough is typified by container services from the is an attractive location for business, and deep water London ports, along with for people wishing to travel to London aggregates trains. Freight using the north for work. This is reflected in high levels of London line joins the ECML in the Finsbury business creation in the town. Park area for destinations in the Midlands and North15. It is both through providing better links between enterprises, and getting the right workers to the right jobs that rail The region transport best supports economic growth. And by removing distance as a barrier to This section of the ECML runs through travel, fast rail services create the sort of London, Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire. linkages that accelerate that process and With a gateway to London, the region add real value. For instance, using mainline is a strong wealth creator. 16. The newly rail, Stevenage is only 23 minutes from developed area around King’s Cross station central London; the same journey time is a testament to London’s international role would allow a traveller to cover less than as a driver of growth, evidenced by Google’s 10 ‘as the crow flies’ miles from south decision to place its London headquarters London into Victoria station. That is why next to the station. Increasing demand for exploiting the speed of rail transport to

daily travel into London is a feature of the improve journey times is a key priority for 15 Link to Freight Demand and strategic outlook for this railway. this section of the ECML route. Context document

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 London to Peterborough

ECML South ECML South 18 Peterborough

Adjusting the stopping patterns of long For the inner-suburban market, the Ely distance services to support outer suburban challenge is to keep up with a fast increase markets is therefore a cost effective way of in demand. Current franchise operators remedying possible overcrowding on those are already committed to providing an services, albeit with a potential impact on increased frequency of service, along with journey times. new trains that can carry more passengers. Cambridge For services using the Moorgate branch, the Although long distance seating capacity most cost-effective way to provide more is forecast to keep ahead of demand, passenger capacity will be to increase the continued economic growth will require frequency of trains. an increase in journey opportunities for Stevenage passengers. This can be seen in terms of Electing to provide more services rather a demand for better connectivity – more than longer trains is driven by the fact that opportunities to travel between more the Moorgate branch operates in tunnels, destinations.19 with key stations being underground. As a result, providing the longer platforms The introduction of HS2 will have a needed by longer trains, is a complex LONDON significant impact on the ECML over the and expensive undertaking. 20. To provide coming decades, and will offer opportunities sufficient passenger capacity through KINGS CROSS to respond to demand for better to 2030, the rail industry predicts that 2 Moorgate connectivity. HS2 is expected to serve Leeds additional peak services will be required and destinations on the north of the ECML in and out of Moorgate, with a third soon by 2033. The immediate impact of HS2 after. To enable these trains, upgrades to will be a significant transfer of passengers the rail infrastructure are required, based from existing long distance services to high around signalling and the control of trains speed. This released capacity can be used to which can be a cost-effective solution. provide the better connectivity demanded Providing the capability for suburban trains by a growing economy. As mentioned, the to turn around at Stevenage is also a priority Growth growth in outer suburban demand could for managing growth in this market. The The time contour maps above show the time it takes travellers be catered for with more long distance current station layout sees trains from the to reach London King’s Cross in the morning peak. Less than trains stopping at intermediate locations. Hertford Loop having to share track space 20 minutes (darkest) 20 to 30 minutes, 30 to 40 minutes, 40 to 50 minutes (lightest). The map at the top shows car Rail industry economic analysis forecasts Opportunities will also be available for with mainline trains. This causes a conflict travel; the one on the bottom shows the much greater distances that demand for daily overland rail travel opening up new or under-served markets: which reduces available line capacity. By achievable by rail. in and out of London grows constantly. By better links between Cambridge and East building a separate platform for suburban 2030 over 7,000 additional seats will be Anglia, and Yorkshire and the East Midlands services, this conflict will be removed, required into London from the ECML in the would be attractive. increasing capacity and reducing the morning rush hour.17 And while peak hour potential for train delay. To do this, we will need to overcome the commuter traffic will continue to be critically physical limitations of the remaining important, passengers will expect regular Strategic highlights Outer suburban and long distance two-track sections of the route section. ‘turn up and go’ services to be the norm trains both share the same core ECML The railway through the Welwyn area – throughout the day; this will be the case Thinking about the London to Peterborough infrastructure, and the challenges for over the Victorian Digswell viaduct and not just on the inner-suburban routes, but route section in terms of the overall strategic these markets are intertwined. To enable through tunnels – forms a pinch point also for the outer suburban markets serving, themes presented earlier leads to the more seating capacity for outer-suburban hampering growth, as does the section of Stevenage, Peterborough, Cambridge and following key considerations. passengers, changing the stopping patterns two-track railway over Fen, south beyond. of some long distance services is the simplest of Peterborough. solution. With many outer suburban services The continued growth in these outer- Providing the services that already running 12 car trains, the next step Of the two, Welwyn is the most pressing 16 Link to Office of National suburban journeys means that by the mid to significant growth for both markets is as it controls the route north and to Statistics Gross Value Added tables. 2020s there is the likelihood that peak passengers need to increase journey opportunities and the Cambridgeshire; building infrastructure hour services will be crowded, with some number of services running each hour. solutions to fix this constraint is an extremely 17 The potential introduction of Crossrail2 from the 2030s passengers having to stand for longer than There are two strategic priorities on this costly undertaking. However, by employing could help manage growth 20 minutes.18 section of route: digital signalling, headways – the safe in these markets, but the distance between trains – could be reduced, 20 Options that use selective scheme has not been used door opening – where those as a factor in demand For the long distance services that use this 1. Providing enough suburban passenger allowing more trains to run through the parts of the train that extend projections to 2030. part of the route, demand is forecast to stay capacity into and out of London. section in a given hour. Freeing up additional beyond the platform have their doors locked out of 18 Link to ECML Demand within the available seating capacity; this is line capacity also provides the option of use, and passengers have to and Capacity. a reflection of a large increase in capacity 2. Supporting growth in the long distance reducing the risk to timetables caused by move to an adjacent carriage to alight – are possible, but 19 Long Distance brought in by the new express fleet market by enabling better connectivity, and train delay (extra line capacity makes are not recommended as Market Study in the early 2020s. and more opportunities to travel. recovery from timetable disruptions easier). strategic solutions.

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 19 ECML South ECML South 20

Alongside this technological intervention, Digital signalling technology also enables it would also be possible to unlock line smarter traffic management, which means capacity by changing the stopping that trains can be managed more flexibly in Investment patterns at intermediate stations like relation to each other. This results in better Welwyn North. The time it takes trains to reaction to any unexpected incidents, slow down, stop, and accelerate again uses and smoother pathing for freight services, choices: up a good deal of available line capacity. so that they have to give way to faster Trade-offs between the convenience services less often. of regular suburban stops and longer ECML South distance line capacity need to be taken With a main London terminal station and into consideration when specifying future a large number of commuter journeys, service patterns. passenger information and ticketing technology is important for the strategic The immediate investment priorities on demand and franchise commitments. growth of this railway route. Smart this part of the ECML are to increase asset Items marked * are detailed in Network Journey times ticketing and barrier-less stations will offer reliability and implement those upgrades Rail’s current delivery plan. Items marked† very significant improvements in door-to- already planned or underway. These cover the whole ECML route, not only As new signalling technology is put in place, door journey times and travel experience. schemes are required to meet immediate this section. opportunities exist to improve linespeeds Options to put in place such technology up to 140mph and drive down journey are being developed at an industry-wide times. Making these improvements can be level, and are implemented through the Growth package Benefits Cost22 costly as infrastructure including overhead franchising process. line equipment and bridges may need to Stevenage turn back platform Enables capacity for 2 additional hourly services between Med be upgraded, and level crossings replaced London and Stevenage; reduces delay risk by separating by bridges. But putting in place these Safety and resilience commuter and mainline services. improvements enables other significant benefits like improved reliability and In common with other sections of the to Woodwalton four- Allows fast and slow trains to be separated which provides Med reduced delay, and better safety; taken ECML route, infrastructure reliability has tracking scheme * more line capacity. Along with the Werrington grade as a whole, linespeed and reliability not been as required on this section of separation north of Peterborough, this scheme is required improvements represent an attractive form the route in recent times. This is because to enable an increase from 6 to 8 long distance services out of infrastructure investment. A package of it is a network that gets busier each day, of King’s Cross. The schemes also allow journey times to be such improvements has been identified, but which contains infrastructure and improved through a recasting of the ECML timetable and the and could offer journey time reductions of equipment that is working beyond its use of new ‘Azuma’ intercity express trains. a minute on Stevenage journeys to London, expected life span. Such infrastructure is and 2.5 minutes saved between London expensive to maintain and prone to failure; and Peterborough (see the ‘Investment and when it does fail, its ageing design Peterborough down slow speed Increases the linespeed on the approaches to Peterborough Low Choices’ section of this document below). means that it can take a long time to fix. improvement * station, allowing trains to access and clear the station more quickly. If we add to this situation the fact that Technology the route is forecast to get busier with King’s Cross station remodelling * Renewal of King’s Cross track layout with modern equipment; Med the advent of Thameslink, and will be enhanced layout allowing trains to clear the station The two-track sections of railway at linked to the timetable south of London, approaches faster. Welwyn and south of Peterborough impose then the potential for an increased risk of limitations on line capacity. By replacing delay is significant between London and Power Supply Upgrade*† Upgrades the power supply for electric trains on the Moorgate High conventional signalling with in-cab digital Peterborough. and Hertford Loop branches. technology, headways – the safe distance between trains – could be reduced The rail industry will mitigate this kind Supplementary Renewals A programme of additional renewals to replace life-expired Very significantly. This provides some additional of risk through the focussed renewal of Programme † infrastructure and improve reliability. High line capacity which could be used to fit the existing infrastructure, and through more trains on the network; additional developing robust timetables and capacity could also be used to reduce the operating practices. risk of delay (by reducing headways but not using all available line capacity, the risk And by placing safety and resilience at 21 Network Rail Enhancements of delay is reduced because it is easier for the heart of our enhancement plans, it Delivery Plan the timetable to recover from any delay- will be possible to bake reliability into the causing incidents). With new technology designs of the future. There is a virtuous 22 Low: up to £20m comes the need to agree the best balance relationship between new replacement Medium: £20m to £200m of potential benefits that it can enable. equipment, improved safety, faster journey High: £200m to £1000m times and a more reliable network system. Very high: >£1000m

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 21 ECML South ECML South 22

Upgrades to Investment package deliver medium that drives further term demand economic growth

This package of upgrades puts in place the This package of investment is designed to journey times. These are the sorts of changes needed to meet demand through exploit the possibilities of digital signalling improvements that can promote economic to the mid-2020s. technology, and use it to increase line growth, and increases in revenue for the capacity, improve reliability and reduce rail industry.

Medium term 23 Benefits Cost 23 recommendations Growth package Benefits Cost ECML South: journey By upgrading the infrastructure between King’s Cross Very High Moorgate Capacity. Enable more This intervention will allow up to 3 additional peak hour Med time and reliability and Peterborough, linespeeds can be improved and suburban journeys for passengers Moorgate trains to operate, providing the passenger capacity improvements. journey times reduced: by 2.5 minutes between (The scope of this into London. needed to meet demand to the mid-2020s (2 additional Linespeeds increased up Peterborough and London King’s Cross; by 1 minute package could overlaps services), and the 2030s (3 additional). The intervention to 140 mph by upgrading between London King’s Cross and Stevenage. with a Supplementary reduces signalling headways (safe distance between trains) infrastructure; safety Renewals Programme for and releases line capacity. Depending on the stopping improvements are made by The improvements would see a step-change in the the ECML (see the base patterns of proposed services, improved platforms or turnback closing level crossings; the reliability of electrification equipment, level options table above). facilities may also be desirable at , and reliability of the railway is where the equivalent of thousands of working days in Cost efficiencies could be Bowes Park. improved with upgraded delay could be avoided each year. expected if both options infrastructure. were implemented.) The technology used would also allow further linespeed This scheme could be delivered in incremental steps: improvements to be added if required, and increase timetable London King’s Cross to Welwyn; Welwyn to Offord; robustness by enabling trains to be controlled more efficiently. Offord to Peterborough.

In order to achieve high 140mph linespeeds, it will be Digital Signalling for the ECML. By replacing signals with digital technology, more trains High necessary to close level crossings and improve lineside Increase line capacity and improve can be safely controlled through two-track sections in the fencing. This will drive an increase in safety on the performance. Welwyn area. This allows more flexibility in responding to any route, and some reduction in delay. perturbations in the timetable, improving performance. The proposals contained within this option include the closing of 10 level crossings between London and Peterborough. Closing level crossings is costly, and often suppresses the value for money assessment of this type of scheme. And to date, it hasn’t been possible to find a value for money business case to support this option.

However, the need to close crossings is triggered by a risk assessment based on rail industry safety policy. Identifying opportunities to close level crossings and so reduce the risk that the railway presents is the right thing to do strategically. As an industry, finding better ways of valuing the benefits of closing level crossings could drive more positive business cases.

23 Low: up to £20m Medium: £20m to £200m High: £200m to £1000m Very high: >£1000m

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 23 ECML South 24

Revenue generation opportunities

The growth package outlined above offers Here, developers are working with Network opportunities to drive tangible revenue Rail and train operators to look at the returns through faster journeys, improved viability of a new mainline station to connections and the opening of new serve a major housing development of markets. Apportioning these benefits 7,000 new homes. Such a prominent rail across different funding contributors across connection would offer a major boost to government and commercial sectors will housing values; in turn, this would provide be necessary; here, risk and benefit sharing significant opportunity to shape investment mechanisms across a range of investors in any new rail facilities needed to support could be explored further. the community without impacting existing mainline services. Additionally for this section of the ECML route, a rail-enabled housing development opportunity has been identified at in .

East West Rail

Reconnecting the communities and A new railway here would intersect the businesses along a transport corridor ECML; as a longer term strategy, this linking , Milton Keynes and offers exciting opportunities for improving Cambridge is an aspiration that has connections and journey opportunities taken significant steps forward in recent between the Southwest, East Midlands and months. In November 2016 the National East Anglia and the north-south corridor of Infrastructure Commission published the ECML. As a brand new railway linked to a report highlighting the opportunities the wider network, presents that could be realised by developing the exciting opportunities to drive innovative corridor; and following announcements in ways of investing-in and building railway the 2016 Autumn Statement, a new rail developments. industry organisation is being set up to 24 Link to Network Rail Level progress plans for rail options in this area. Crossings Policies 25 NIC Interim Report into Cambridge – Milton Keynes – Oxford corridor 26 East West Rail link

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 25 ECML Central ECML Central 26

SkiptonPeterborough to Leeds and Colton Junction To maximise the potential of the region, Leeds Midlands Connect have identified an increase Selby Bradford Hull ECML Central: in journey opportunities along with reduction in journey times as an important rail strategy for that corridor. Wakefield Grimsby Peterborough to Doncaster With a population in excess of 3 million and the at its centre, the towns and cities of the area are hugely Doncaster and Leeds important destinations for the ECML. It is the Retford biggest City Region outside the South East, Lincoln responsible for 5% of England’s economic output. With annual output of £60.5bn, it is Newark North of Peterborough, the ECML links This section of the ECML route is crucial for an economy of international significance and the rural heartlands of Lincolnshire and most types of freight traffic – from bio-mass homeForecast to 119,000 demand businesses. and capacity to Leeds from Westgate 2023Grantham & 2043 with the conurbations of trains feeding Yorkshire power stations, to Nottingham the North. Doncaster serves as a rail hub time-critical container traffic from the eastForecast demandAlthough and capacity the toregion Leeds is from still Wakefielda manufacturing Westgate 2023 & 2043 where 5 railways converge, including the coast ports to terminals inland. Doncaster centre with over 140,000 people employed in 3000 electrified route through to Leeds. The GN is an important freight hub, and3000 the GN-GE the sector – the largest in the UK – economic GE joint line is a loop from Peterborough route provides a strategic freight artery for growth is spread across a diversity of activity; Peterborough through to Doncaster via Lincoln, roughly north-south services. 2500 2500 this includes the financial and business service parallel to the mainline; this is an important sectors centred around Leeds, and one of the Forecast demand and capacity to Leeds from Wakefield Westgate 2023 & 2043 freight route, allowing freight trains to 2000 largest higher education clusters in Europe. Forecast demand and capacity to Leeds from Wakefield Westgate 2023 & 2024 operate independently of the ECML. The region 2000 Challenges for the region include increasing 3000 1500 productivity to drive a higher wage, lower Baseline capacity The ECML central section of the route runs welfare economy. 1500 2500 2023 Forecast demand Baseline capacity through the transition between1000 the north The trains 2043 Forecast demand and south of the UK – and the east and the To achieve these goals, priorities for rail 2000 2023 Forecast demand The core long distance services that use west. This is reflected in the 500diversity of the 1000 transport include ECML links to London, 2043 Forecast demand this section of the route connect London region and its economy. and inter-regional connections. Maintaining 1500 Baseline capacity with Grantham, Newark, Retford and existing fast London services while increasing 2023 Forecast demand 27 Link to Freight Demand and 0 1000 Context document Doncaster on the main line; trains turn off Greater Lincolnshire is a major contributor7-8am 500 8-9am journey9-10am opportunities7-8am between8-9am the capital and9-10am 2043 Forecast demand the main line at Newark to serve Lincoln, to the nation’s food manufacturing output, centres such as Bradford, Wakefield, Harrogate 28 Midlands Connect is a pan------Long Distance ------Suburban ------500 Midlands partnership of 23 and in the Doncaster area to serve Hull. but also hosts thriving chemical, tourism and is desirable, as Capacityare the = total capacity for suburban Local Authorities, nine Local 0 = seating capacity for long distance An electrified section of the ECML between and energy industries. The Port of Grimsby development of better east west connections 0 Enterprise Partnerships, the 7-8am 8-9am 9-10am 7-8am 7-8am 8-9am8-9am 9-10am9-10am 7-8am 8-9am 9-10am Chambers of Commerce, Doncaster and Leeds also serves Wakefield, and is the largest port by between Leeds and West Yorkshire and the , HS2 with some services extending to Bradford, tonnage handling over 59m tonnes of growth centres of Cambridge and East Anglia. ------Suburban ------Long Distance ------Suburban Long Distance ------Ltd, Network Rail and our Skipton and Harrogate goods per year. Rail traffic to and from Capacity for commuting journeys into Leeds Capacity = total capacity for suburban Sponsor the Department Capacity = total capacity for suburban = seating capacity for long distance for Transport. It aims the ports connects the major energy and along the Wakefield Doncaster = seating capacity for long distance to deliver the enhanced A number of inter-regional and local services manufacturing providers in the North and corridor will continue to be a rail priority, as connectivity required to power the Midlands Engine, connect with stations on this section. East Midlands, and accounts for over 25% of UK will links between Sheffield and Hull - likely via Economic forecasts show that facilitating maximising the Midlands’ Anglia and the North West are connected by rail freight. Doncaster - which the Northern Powerhouse further growth through rail will require an position as a hub of the national transport network; an hourly to service which Rail programme is developing. increase in connectivity – more journey driving economic growth, calls at Grantham; Grantham also forms a Growth in housing is also a priority for opportunities to more places served by the trade and productivity. stop on the to Nottingham route. Greater Lincolnshire, with plans for the ECML. Using the capacity released by HS2 From the Midlands Connect Strategy At Newark, a rare at-grade crossing exists to delivery of 100,000 homes before 2031. Demand to provide this connectivity is the proposed allow east-west trains to cross the mainline Linking this sort of population growth to strategic direction for the ECML. at the same level. This is used by freight jobs and businesses is a strategic priority for For this central section of the ECML route, trains and a passenger service linking the the region, and one where rail transport can passenger demand on long distance Attractive options for how released capacity Midlands with the city of Lincoln and rural play a pivotal role. services is forecast to be met by the service could benefit this region include: Lincolnshire. improvements that will be introduced as part To encourage the sort of growth potential of the intercity express fleet upgrade in the • Cambridge to Leeds and West Doncaster station is a major hub for local, that better transport promotes, Midlands early 2020s. As well as additional seating Yorkshire services long distance and freight trains. Cross- Connect has developed a strategy to capacity, the proposed service structure will • London to Nottingham and the East country services from the south and shape transport development. The route bring increased opportunities to travel to Midlands Midlands connect at Doncaster en-route linking , Nottingham, Newark Lincoln, Bradford and Harrogate. Over the • Additional London services to: to Newcastle, while local services from all and Lincoln is seen as an ‘intensive longer term, the planned introduction of HS2 • Lincoln & Lincolnshire 29 Leeds City Region Strategic Yorkshire regions, Lincolnshire and the East growth corridor’. services to Leeds from the 2030s will free-up • Hull and East Yorkshire Economic Plan Midlands converge on Doncaster. capacity on ECML services. • Wakefield, Bradford, Huddersfield 30 Link to demand analysis

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 27 ECML Central ECML Central 28

Where additional passenger capacity will be Nottingham – Newark – Lincoln. This Over the long term, increased services needed in the long term – on the route into route is a key economic corridor for Lincoln into the west side of Doncaster station Leeds, two broad options exist: one, to make and the Midlands, and the people in those will need to be supported with additional changes to the railway infrastructure to allow regions want to see faster more frequent platforms that allow more capacity more trains to run, the other to adjust the services using the line. At the moment, any and greater operational flexibility. mix, type, length and stopping patterns of increase in east-west train services is limited Improving track layout and linespeeds trains in order to allow more people to travel by the physical at-grade crossing with through the station will also help the flow at the times that they need to. In terms of the ECML, which means that trains have of traffic. infrastructure upgrades between Doncaster to wait for each other, using up available and Leeds, analysis has shown that the mix capacity. This crossing is an outdated piece Whilst ultimately, a grade separation such as of fast and slow passenger services and of infrastructure; but doing away with it is a a flyover would offer the greatest freedom freight trains means that providing more complex engineering task that would require for growth (east west services would not line capacity will require large scale civil a fly-over – very costly on a mainline railway. conflict with mainline traffic), this represents engineering upgrades. These upgrades would However, the removal of Newark crossing a very significant infrastructure upgrade that include stretches of additional track to make would offer a range of potential benefits: would be difficult to justify in terms of value four-track railway which allows trains to pass for money. Another option for enabling more each other. • Lincoln would not be ‘locked in’ for rail journey opportunities through the station is growth: passenger and freight service levels for connecting services to stop at Doncaster Although they could not provide the increased to the midlands could increase. Journey and for passengers to change trains across the capacity of a physical intervention, changes times could also be reduced. station. This sort of solution inevitably causes in train operations on the existing layout some inconvenience for passengers, but with • More connections between should be looked at; for instance the use of • Long distance train operators could travel improved customer information systems, intermediate ECML locations served high performing rolling stock to minimise the faster through the section, reducing journey passenger interchange could be made more less frequently now: Peterborough speed difference between trains, and also to times. seamless and become a viable alternative to – Stevenage – Grantham – Newark – explore if changes to stopping patterns could costly and intrusive infrastructure upgrades. Retford – Doncaster provide a more optimal use of the available • An adjacent level crossing could be closed, capacity through the different demand further reducing safety risk and delay for An area where capacity is likely to lag behind periods of the day. Over the strategic time road traffic. Journey times demand is on commuter journeys into Leeds. period that this study has considered, it Here, demand levels are forecast to outstrip will be desirable to enable more frequent, • Network Rail would save money on For the mainline on this central section, capacity in the longer term prior to 2043; faster journey opportunities in order to maintaining a bespoke asset, and reduce there are significant opportunities to drive these are journeys where HS2 is not expected promote economic growth in the regions risk to the service it provides. reductions in journey time through improving to have an impact on demand. served by the ECML. On this central section linespeeds up to 140mph. Running at of the route, some locations would need While, individually, these benefits are unlikely such speeds requires level crossings to be improvement in order to offer additional to provide a return sufficient to produce a closed, and for overhead line and signalling Strategic highlights journey opportunities. value-for-money business case for replacing equipment to be upgraded. This results in the crossing with a flyover, taken as a whole a package of improvements that provides Thinking about the Peterborough to Grantham station. Situated at the junction and as part of a broader economic case better journey times and better infrastructure Doncaster and Leeds route section in terms of between the ECML and Norwich to Liverpool encompassing the ECML and the Lincoln – reliability, but at a high cost. To deliver such a the overall strategic themes presented earlier route, Grantham station has a mix of fast Nottingham corridor, they may have merit; package efficiently, it is recommended that leads to the following key considerations. through lines and slow platform lines, with the and if a fuller range of potential funders were linespeed improvements are aligned to the potential to become a greater capacity pinch involved, then the proposal could have a delivery of upgrades in signalling technology point in time. If an increase in north-south better chance of being affordable. that are the strategic aim for the ECML. Providing the services that mainline services were required (beyond the Around 4.5 minutes and many thousands eight per hour enabled by the current planned Doncaster station. As we have seen, of hours of passenger delay could be saved passengers need infrastructure improvements), or if more Doncaster station is a key hub on the on journeys between Peterborough and York 31 Long Distance east west traffic was added, then conflicts mainline. But because it is so well connected, with such a package of investment. Market Study Passenger growth on existing services is between these service flows would require growth in the number of services that feed forecast to be catered for by the new train some platform and other interventions at the into it could be limited by platform availability services to be introduced on the ECML in station. or the capacity to cross the mainline. Some the 2020s, and ultimately by the additional inter-regional services are already regulated capacity enabled by HS2. Nevertheless, this Lincoln station. In future, an increase in the in the Doncaster area leading to frustrating central section of the route would need to service levels between London and Lincoln waiting times for passengers just outside the be improved to enable the sort of economic will be desirable and would drive positive station. This is a current issue that is already growth that is associated with more and economic growth. Accommodating these being addressed by Network Rail and train faster journey opportunities, and in terms of services at the station would require some operators through changes to timetabling offering a more reliable service to passengers. infrastructure improvement work. Options and operations. exist to reinstate and upgrade out of use platforms, or to make better use of sidings.

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 29 ECML Central ECML Central 30

For the local, freight and inter-regional The ECML is at the forefront of the Based on Network Rail’s asset management On this section of route, that equates to services that intersect with the mainline, introduction of this technology, which forms strategies, an approach which replaces investment in signalling and overhead line journey time reductions are also desirable. On a major infrastructure investment for the ageing infrastructure and seeks to use those infrastructure along with the closing of level the Nottingham Lincoln line, opportunities railway. Implementation is planned to begin renewals to drive higher levels of service and a crossings, and the removal of the obsolete for journey-time improvements do exist: at the southern end of the ECML and then lower safety risk, is preferable. (To stretch the crossing at Newark. This approach offsets the upgrading linespeeds through signalling and be rolled out where it offers the most benefit car analogy, it is the equivalent of replacing cost of renewal with the benefits of a higher track improvements here needs to be aligned over coming years. an older model with a new one that is safer level of service in terms of journey times, line to rolling stock and stopping pattern choices, and more economical.) capacity and reliability. which affect journey times. For the central section of the ECML route, digital technology offers better train Journey speeds on the Sheffield route into performance and delay recovery through Doncaster are too low, and although not better traffic management. For instance, covered by this study, improvements there it could take the whole of a freight train’s Investment Choices: are an industry priority. Between Doncaster journey into account, in order to optimise and Leeds journey time improvements are its running time. The technology, allows constrained by the mix of fast and slow traffic. trains to know where they are in relation ECML Central to each other as well as the infrastructure; replacing conventional signalling with digital technology can also enable higher linespeeds to be achieved more safely. Base level scenarios that service levels while also safeguarding target train performance levels, is a Technology should also be used to create address demand on priority now and in the near future. smoother, easier passenger interchanges. If A supplementary renewals programme passengers have electronic tickets linked to current services which covers the whole of the ECML has information systems that show exactly where been developed to address this. they need to alight and embark, changing Demand due to growth on existing services trains to cover longer journeys need not be will be catered for with the planned The immediate priorities shown below and such a drawback. This kind of approach will be introduction of new LDHS trains, and with marked * are already part of the Network highly relevant to stations such as Doncaster the advent of HS2. Rail enhancements delivery plan, and are where connections are so important. needed to meet service increases set out Making the current infrastructure more in franchise commitments. Items marked† reliable, to meet planned increases in cover the whole ECML route, not only Safety and resilience this section. The reliability of the railway infrastructure plays a big part in the punctuality of train Immediate Benefits Cost32 services, and the people who rely on them investment priorities For the competitive freight services that use to get themselves or their goods to chosen the route, reliable, predictable journey times destinations. The currently-planned upgrades Provide reliable power supply Upgrades the power supply for electric trains on the ECML Med that allow operators to deliver and return to the ECML will enable a new timetable and sufficient for planned additional between Doncaster and York.* within a set time scale are crucial. The use of a new fleet of intercity express trains to come services to run.* † the GN-GE joint line to provide uninterrupted into service in the early 2020s, improving the paths off the ECML between Peterborough service to passengers. However, some of the and Doncaster will continue to be a strategic ECML infrastructure is close to, or at the end Werrington Grade Separation This scheme, along with the four-tracking scheme south of Med priority; this is a goal that will be strengthened of its predicted life – ‘life-expired’ in railway Peterborough is required to enable an increase from 6 to 8 through the delivery of the planned junction jargon. That means that it can be prone to long distance services out of London King’s Cross. They also separation at Werrington on the south end more frequent failure, and that failures can allow journey times to be improved through a recasting of the of the route. The industry will also look to the be costly to remedy in time and money. It also ECML timetable and the use of new Azuma express trains. The introduction of better signalling technology means that the sort of performance levels grade separated junction allows freight traffic to use the GNGE to provide more efficient traffic management that train operators need for their customers joint line without conflicting with mainline services, which that will benefit end-to-end freight journeys. is harder to guarantee. provides more line capacity.

Given this situation, improving reliability is Supplementary Renewals A programme of additional renewals to replace life-expired Very High Technology a key tenet of the ECML strategy. Making Programme. †† infrastructure and improve infrastructure reliability. the infrastructure more reliable ultimately As discussed elsewhere in this document, relies on replacing it: as with a family car, 32 Low: up to £20m moving to digital signalling technologies is a maintaining and repairing is not an indefinite Medium: £20m to £200m fundamental strategic technological advance or optimum option – eventually a new car High: £200m to £1000m for the rail industry. is required. Very high: >£1000m

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interventions that provide a longer term possibilities of digital signalling technology, Upgrades to deliver solution, and shorter term operational fixes. Investment options that and use it to improve reliability and reduce medium-term demand Infrastructure interventions could provide support economic growth journey times. Also illustrated are options additional tracks between Doncaster and to make Doncaster and Lincoln stations Leeds that will allow services to overtake, The investment choices set out below better able to handle growth in the number One area has been identified increasing line capacity; operational include options designed to exploit the of services stopping there. where additional passenger capacity solutions include specifying longer, higher will be needed by the mid 2020s; this performing rolling stock and flexing is to provide for additional peak hours stopping patterns during peak demand. Growth package Benefits Cost34 commuter journeys into Leeds. Here, These could be specified through future the options include civil engineering franchising processes. Reduce journey time and improve By upgrading the infrastructure between Peterborough and Very High reliability. York, linespeeds can be improved and journey times reduced Linespeeds can increase up to by 4.5 minutes between Peterborough and York. Medium term 140 mph by upgrading Scope and benefits Cost34 infrastructure; safety improvements The improvements would see a step-change in the reliability of recommendations are made by closing level overhead line electrification equipment, where the equivalent crossings; the reliability of the of thousands of working days in delay could be avoided each Doncaster Leeds operational To allow more passenger capacity into Leeds in times of TBC railway is improved with upgraded year. Providing 140mph running would require the removal of changes peak demand, a mixture of high performing rolling stock and infrastructure. the at-grade crossing at Newark. Replacing this with a fly-over different stopping patterns could be adopted. If trains were would unlock capacity for additional hourly services linking to accelerate and decelerate more efficiently between stops, Lincoln to Nottingham and the Midlands. line capacity could be increased. Optimising stopping patterns could also provide more space on trains when and where it is This package would rely on the introduction of digital most needed. signalling technology which would also bring improvements in headways (safe space between trains) and junction margins (amount of time between trains using a junction), making Alternative option: Doncaster to The operational solutions outlined above require trade- Med the operation of trains at Doncaster and York stations more Leeds additional tracks. offs between different journey priorities. To provide a more efficient. strategic solution to increased line capacity, it would be necessary to build additional tracks between Doncaster and (The scope of this package overlaps with the ECML Leeds. Supplementary Renewals Programme outlined above: cost efficiencies could be expected if both options were While this option provides a more flexible solution to the implemented.) requirements for additional line capacity, it represents a significant outlay that will need to be tested with further business case modelling. Doncaster west side linespeed Adding additional platforms on the west of Doncaster station Med improvements and platforms. would allow more capacity for connecting trains from the Leeds and Sheffield directions. Services that are regulated outside the station could be accommodated in the station improving journey times and travel experience for passengers.

Linespeeds on the route used through the station by Leeds to London trains would be improved, providing greater operational flexibility and some improvement in journey times.

Additional platform at Lincoln This would allow more trains to terminate at Lincoln station, Med allowing an improvement in the number of services between King’s Cross and London.

Additional platform and junction These improvements would provide more capacity and remove Med lead at Grantham conflicts with the ECML. This would be needed for growth in services using the ECML.

33 Network Rail Enhancements Delivery Plan

34 Low: up to £20m Medium: £20m to £200m High: £200m to £1000m Very high: >£1000m

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investment to drive commercial and wider Revenue generation economic an returns. As part of a wider opportunities business and residential district within 5 miles of the airport, thousands of planned These are choices that could provide a new homes and millions of sq. feet of return on investment but don’t specifically commercial property could benefit from a address demand or economic growth rail connection. outputs identified by conventional rail market studies. Under this approach, travellers living up and down the ECML may prefer to Doncaster Sheffield Airport Connection travel quickly by train for direct flights Recent work by Doncaster Council from Doncaster, rather than to long-haul and Sheffield City Region in association airports further away, or to local airports with the owners of Doncaster Sheffield closer, but with indirect connections. Airport is illustrating how connecting international air travel with mainline Any ECML connection would have to be railway connections could drive a designed so as not to conflict with existing reorientation of the UK’s airport provision. mainline services. Mainline capacity would The idea – to link the ECML to the need to be targeted on the airport: the Sheffield City Region Doncaster Sheffield Airport with a station capacity released following the opening of Transport Strategy – represents an aspiration to use rail HS2 could be used for this purpose.

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 35 ECML North ECML North 36

services connect at York, Northallerton, Sunderland and the Tees Valley are home Darlington and Newcastle. Freight services The region to a mix of vital heavy industries and ECML North: are focussed on the thriving ports on ports, off-shore energy and newer high- Teesside, Sunderland, and Blyth, The area of Yorkshire and the North East tech manufacturing businesses. Nissan’s alongside Anglo-Scottish flows. While a that this route supports hosts a wealth commitment to its automotive facility in recent fall in demand for coal has resulted of economic activity that is supported Washington has recently been renewed, York to Newcastle in fewer trains serving the power stations by rail. Its story is one of innovative new while a new train-building facility at Newton Colton Junction to Newcastle of Yorkshire, strong growth is forecast for industries filling the place of legacy sectors Aycliffe continues Darlington’s historic links the intermodal market – domestic and that have declined in previous decades. with the rail industry; it will be used to international container services. This transition will present a breadth build the new high-speed train fleet that of new employment opportunities for will serve the east coast from the 2020s. Newcastle Long distance passenger services on the communities that may have felt the brunt route are made up of trains that link London of decline in the past. Providing excellent York forms a railway hub for the north Sunderland with destinations along the ECML through travel opportunities to support growth in part of the ECML, and its enviable rail to Scotland, and cross-country services business and employment opportunities is connections support a thriving tourism that provide direct trains from the south a priority for the rail service that this part sector as part of a high-skill economy built Durham and south west of England to the north and of the route provides. upon its world-class universities. Scotland. Both franchise and open access operators serve these markets, providing a Key growth sectors here include energy, The Tyne and Wear region is unique Middlesbrough range of ticket options for passengers. tourism, automotive and advanced among the communities the ECML manufacturing, while education and serves in that it has an established Metro Darlington The inter-urban market between York universities provide a strong skills-based system – 20km of which operates across and Newcastle links destinations across focus to regional growth strategies. The Network Rail infrastructure. Following the with York, Scarborough, Science Central project in Newcastle is forthcoming investment in a new, dual Middlesbrough, Newcastle and places an example of housing, business, skills voltage fleet, Nexus, the Tyne and Wear in between; while local services connect and innovation coming together through Passenger Transport Executive, has destinations along the ECML with town economic development. Newcastle also aspirations to expand this network over Northallerton and cities in Yorkshire, Durham, and hosts a growing financial and business existing rail infrastructure, and is looking

Northumberland. services sector, alongside fast growing at the potential in reinstating disused rail 35 Link to Freight Demand and creative and digital industries, while alignments to promote growth. Context document

Harrogate Ilkley Skipton York Leeds With a mix of two and four-track railway carrying passenger and freight services to mainline stations and destinations in the Tees Valley and Durham coast, the East Coast Main Line between York and Newcastle is diverse, both in terms of the rail services it supports, and the infrastructure that enables those services. The trains The route carries long distance high speed trains from London and the North West to destinations in the North East and Scotland alongside freight traffic, inter-urban, and cross-country services; local passenger

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north of England where great potential Providing the services that exists to rebalance the national economy customers need by enabling the north and north east to generate economic outputs that can rival To accommodate additional train services London and the south east. At the heart planned as part of upcoming franchises of this vision is the introduction of HS2 commitments, a significant programme services beyond the Midlands and west of enhancement schemes is underway Yorkshire to York, Darlington, Durham on the ECML. Passing loops between York and Newcastle. HS2 will deliver additional and Newcastle will enable extra passenger long distance capacity along with the services to operate on the north of the sort of journey time reduction that drives route alongside freight trains. The track economic growth. layout at the north of York station is also being reviewed as part of this programme, To complement the long distance with the aim of allowing more trains to improvements offered by HS2, Transport enter and exit the station at the same time. for the North is developing a vision for rail travel that will link the towns and cities In terms of meeting long distance seating of the north and north capacity, the improvements in rolling stock with faster more frequent rail services. and train service frequency promised as part As part of this Northern Powerhouse Rail 38 Link to Freight Demand and current proposed franchise arrangements programme, the destinations on the ECML Context document will enable sufficient passenger capacity would be better connected to Leeds, 39 Network Rail Enhancements through to the 2040s. , Sheffield, Liverpool, Hull and Delivery Plan places in between. 40 Link to ECML Demand and However, meeting and driving the Capacity potential for economic growth in the In order to understand how such a step 41 Link to Transport for the North Stratigic Transport regions served by the ECML would require change could be accommodated on the rail Plan Growth To accommodate this level of demand, and a step change in the service that rail network, a range of service specifications to meet the economic growth predicted provides. This is particularly true across the have been modelled. Between York and Newcastle, journeys are for this part of the route, additional enabled by a timetable which delivers 5 seating capacity and more opportunities passenger trains per hour for most of the to travel quickly between key destinations day, alongside one or two hourly freight will be required above today’s levels. services. In the medium term through to 2023, train operators have responded to these Looking forward, market analysis demands with significant improvements forecasts that passenger demand on long in service offerings: proposals as part of distance services from London on the the East Coast and Trans Pennine Express York - Newcastle corridor will increase from franchises will deliver new high performing 2017 levels by 27% by 2023 and 107% by rolling stock, additional seats and more 2043. Similarly strong growth is forecast opportunities to travel to a wider range of to the 2040s for cross-country travel destinations. These enhancements will be (81%), trans-Pennine (72%), and suburban supplemented by new open access services passenger journeys into Newcastle (72%). offering direct links between London, These growth rates were forecast excluding Newcastle and Edinburgh. In total, these the impact of HS2. increases in train services will meet the forecast demand for destinations served A decline in the number of freight trains by the York - Newcastle corridor. carrying coal is forecast to be offset by increases in demand for intermodal (container) trains. The overall picture Strategic highlights for freight on this route section is for a continued level of train paths, with an Thinking about the York to Newcastle route increasing emphasis on freight journey section in terms of the overall strategic 36 Link to Newcastle Science Central times and reliability in the availability of themes presented earlier leads to the paths; these are priorities so that freight following key considerations. 37 Rail Industry Long Distance companies can respond to the needs of Market study (2013), high growth, no HS2 scenario. their customers for timely, predictable Link to demand analysis. delivery of a wide range of goods.

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service increases beyond base demand Newcastle and Sunderland, Nexus, the Where increases in linespeed or train are considered; and a ‘revenue generation’ Tyne and Wear Passenger Transport frequency are planned, level crossing scenario which illustrates choices that show Executive, has aspirations to expand this risk needs to be assessed and mitigated. how investment in rail could drive financial network over existing rail infrastructure and other benefits. as well as to reinvigorate mothballed and The strategic approach we have taken disused rail alignments with an aim to is that level crossing risk must not be Delivering the strategic rail transport vision growing both the local economy and in increased and could be reduced as a The modelling allows different hourly for the North in steps is advantageous in turn allowing the region to contribute to result of railway upgrades; options to service patterns to be compared to the that it addresses issues of affordability national economic success. close crossings are always preferable and baseline infrastructure capability, and while still providing a way of delivering should be looked at as part of potential risk shows where constraints – pinch points, tangible benefits for the communities mitigation measures. bottlenecks or conflicts between different along the railway. Also, a large programme Journey times service flows – could occur. of rail investment takes time to put in place. Power supply for electric traction is a To make the most the introduction of high Opportunities exist between York and known issue on this corridor. Development To deliver the sort of step change in journey speed services and better connections Darlington to improve linespeeds up to work carried out as part of power supply opportunities needed to support economic across the North, the stepped delivery of 140mph and drive down journey times. improvements on the southern end of growth on this section of the ECML, a improvements can be seen in terms of an Due to the linear nature of the ECML route, the ECML has indicated that a modular service specification has been tested that HS2/ Northern Powerhouse Rail readiness journey time improvements on one section approach to power supply could offer a

increases passenger service levels from programme. of the route benefit destinations across the scalable way of meeting power needs in 43 Tees Valley Strategic the current 5 per hour between York and whole; so, while packages of improvements the short term. Economic Plan Newcastle, to 9 per hour. In this scenario, A good example of the sort of can be implemented individually on freight levels have been modelled as improvement that fits this model is a different sections, benefits become much constant – on average, 2 per hour as now; station improvement master plan for more significant if the route is treated as this reflects a picture of reduced demand Darlington station. Darlington is a hub a whole. in some freight sectors being balanced by on the ECML, and trains from the Tees increased demand in others. Valley have to cross the mainline to stop at the station. This uses up line capacity, Technology A 9-trains-per-hour service specification and as a result, the train service between on this section of the route would easily Middlesbrough and Darlington cannot The two-track sections of railway in this meet forecast demand for seating through grow alongside the mainline service levels. section combined with the wide mix to the 2040s. The main driver for such Recent increases in franchise services on of traffic types mean that on its own, an increase in provision is to promote the main line and Tees Valley routes make digital signalling technology would not economic growth through providing this a pressing issue. offer significant increases in capacity better passenger connections and more along this corridor. If civil infrastructure journey opportunities for activities such as By adding platforms on the east side of the improvements were carried out with the business, leisure and skills. ECML, the Tees Valley train service could be aim of separating fast and slow traffic, more frequent, attracting more travellers digital signalling could potentially offer The 9-services-per-hour scenario was currently using cars, and driving growth increases in line capacity. arrived at through consultation with rail through better connections for business, industry stakeholders including Transport leisure and skills. It would also pave the Digital signalling is also an effective 41 Link to Transport For The North For The North: while such a service level way for any future increase in ECML traffic. enabler of higher linespeeds; without it, does not meet the sum total of aspirations the capabilities of existing technologies 42 North of identified across HS2, Northern Powerhouse Putting in new platforms would also need to be stretched, which can lead to to Newcastle via York, Darlington and Durham, Rail and the rail market studies, it does form provide a spur to redeveloping the station costly upgrades to legacy systems. the ECML will form part an achievable step change in passenger building and its surroundings, making of both the HS2 and connectivity needed to support economic Darlington a key part of the national NPR networks. Transport 42 for the North and the growth. and high speed networks. This sort of Safety and resilience Department for Transport improvement would drive growth further, will submit a Strategic Outline Business Case for As will be seen later in this document, and align with the strategic economic Due to ageing overhead line equipment, NPR by the end of 2018 enabling such an increase in train numbers plans for the Tees Valley. infrastructure reliability issues have setting out infrastructure options. Whilst the Route on this portion of the route will require very had an impact on performance Study identifies Choices for significant additional railway infrastructure The Tyne and Wear region is unique to the on this corridor in recent months. Funders at this stage, these to be built. To supplement this ‘step communities the East Coast Mainline serves, Addressing overhead line resilience as may evolve to reflect the SOBC and further NPR and change’ scenario, other options have as it has an established Metro system, part of an investment package that HS2 work. For that reason, been considered. These include a ‘base 20km of which operate to across Network could enable higher linespeeds offers an the long term planning process is a continuous level’ scenario where options that seek Rail infrastructure. After forthcoming attractive potential way forward. process that will build on to meet forecast demand are presented; investment in a new, dual voltage, fleet this Route Study to reflect current and future rail an ‘incremental growth’ scenario where which will bring positive benefits in terms demands. investment choices that offer incremental of track capacity and resilience between

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Upgrades to deliver Investment medium-term demand This package of enhancements puts Choices: ECML North in place the changes needed to meet passenger demand through to the mid-2020s. Base level scenarios Medium term Benefits Cost44 that address demand recommendations on current services Newcastle platform capacity. Investment here would provide 1 or 2, longer, terminating TBC Reduce crowding on inter-regional platforms at Newcastle station. These would be able to handle Assuming today’s infrastructure, no services by enabling longer trains to longer trains; longer trains would reduce crowding on the full increases in the number of services would terminate at Newcastle station. route of that terminate at Newcastle. be possible on this section of railway. Longer trains are also an aspiration for inter-regional services Changes to service levels would have linking Lancashire and the Northwest with Newcastle. to be made using trade-offs between trains in different service sectors, and/or by adjusting stopping patterns and the destinations served. Step change scenario Analysis carried out by the East The immediate priorities shown below and driving economic growth marked* are already part of the Network Coast Mainline Authorities (ECMA) Rail enhancements delivery plan, and are In this scenario, infrastructure works would needed to meet service increases set out in be undertaken to enable up to 9 passenger group suggests that high value franchise commitments. trains per hour plus current freight levels to operate between York and Newcastle. This for money could be achieved from A supplementary renewals programme is is considered a step change scenario in investments on the ECML, even with also needed to meet planned increases that it could drive significant growth in the in service levels while also safeguarding economies of the towns and cities across costs in the region of £3 billion. target train performance levels (this will the North and North East. be achieved through better infrastructure 45  reliability). This programme covers the The full package of investment outlined www.investineastcoast.co.uk whole ECML route, not only this section, so below would be necessary to enable 46 Network Rail Enhancements is marked with †. 9 services per hour. However, significant Delivery Plan benefits could be derived from implementing individual options as part of Immediate investment an incremental approach. These options Scope and benefits Cost44 are marked ‡. priorities

Provide reliable power supply Upgrades the power supply for electric trains on the ECML TBC sufficient for planned additional between York and Newcastle. services to run.* †

Supplementary Renewals A programme of additional renewals to replace life-expired Very High Programme. † infrastructure and improve infrastructure reliability.

44 Low: up to £20m Medium: £20m to £200m High: £200m to £1000m Very high: >£1000m

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Growth package Scope and benefits Cost47 Growth package Scope and benefits Cost47

Reduce journey time and improve By upgrading the infrastructure between York and Newcastle, High Increase line capacity through York To enable 9 passenger services per hour, it will be necessary to High reliability. linespeeds can be improved and journey times reduced by 1.5 station to Northallerton. allow more line capacity through York station, and to optimise minutes between the two cities. The linespeed increases would how fast and slow lines work together on the route through Linespeeds can increase up to affect stations along the route: this option could provide and at Northallerton. 140 mph by upgrading opportunities for making beneficial changes to the station infrastructure; safety improvements layouts at Thirsk and Northallerton. The remodelling work required on this stretch of route would are made by closing level also offer opportunities to re-configure the station layouts at crossings; the reliability of the The improvements would also see a step-change in the Thirsk and Northallerton, which could drive safety, journey railway is improved with upgraded reliability of overhead line electrification equipment, saving time and connectivity benefits. infrastructure. ‡ thousands of hours in passenger delay per year. Darlington. Make Tees Valley Tees Valley trains between Darlington and Middlesbrough Med This package would be supported by the introduction of digital services independent of the ECML. ‡ currently have to cross the mainline, which is a significant signalling technology, which would also offer improvements in constraint to ECML line capacity. This option would put headways (safe space between trains) and junction margins platforms on the east side of the mainline at Darlington (amount of time between trains using a junction), making the station. This would increase line capacity and operational operation of trains at stations more efficient. flexibility at Darlington station, and also allow the increases in (The scope of this package overlaps with the ECML Tees Valley services needed to drive growth. Supplementary Renewals Programme outlined above: cost efficiencies could be expected if both options were Create an additional rail route Driving a step change in growth ultimately needs a step Very High implemented.) parallel to the ECML, utilising the change in the capacity of the railway. This option reinstates Leamside branch, a disused rail an old freight route called the Leamside branch which runs York. Optimise York station for HS2 This option remodels the layout on the southern approaches TBC alignment. parallel to the ECML from Ferryhill north of Darlington, to services and allow an extra hourly to York station in order to maximise the line capacity available depending near Newcastle. Re-opening it would allow fast and on HS2 service along the . ‡ when HS2 services are introduced onto the classic network connection slow services to be separated and allow the capacity needed south of York. options. for 9 passenger trains per hour. This option includes upgrades to the Stillington branch to make a continuous parallel route Alongside the southern approaches, the option would also add between Northallerton and Newcastle. Also included are works an additional 12th platform at the station for the use of trains to accommodate the additional services at Newcastle, and to and from Harrogate. The scheme would also provide an in the Pelaw area where passenger, freight and Metro trains additional track north to Skelton junction to increase capacity. share the infrastructure. This proposal also has the potential to open up access to Increase line capacity through York To enable 9 passenger services per hour, it will be necessary to High suburban rail services, for up to 1 million residents in Country station to Northallerton. allow more line capacity through York station, and to optimise Durham and Tyne and Wear, connecting them to jobs, how fast and slow lines work together on the route through commerce and the wider transport network. Further potential Thirsk and at Northallerton. for Park and Ride sites would allow rail to offer an attractive alternative to the congested road network south of Newcastle. The remodelling work required on this stretch of route would also offer opportunities to re-configure the station layouts at Thirsk and Northallerton, which could drive safety, journey time and connectivity benefits.

47 Low: up to £20m Medium: £20m to £200m High: £200m to £1000m Very high: >£1000m

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ECML Borders: Newcastle to Berwick-upon-Tweed Newcastle to Edinburgh The northern most section of the English portion of the ECML, this 70 mile section of the route runs through rural to the borders region at Berwick-upon-Tweed. The ECML continues Edinburgh beyond Berwick to Edinburgh: long term plans for that section of the route are Berwick-upon-Tweed detailed in the Scotland Route Study.

The trains

Long distance services from London, and the northwest and the southwest of England use this section of the ECML on route to Scotland, with Morpeth, Alnmouth and Berwick-upon-Tweed able to accommodate long trains; local services link Newcastle with stations in Scotland Route Study Morpeth Northumberland as far as Chathill. Anglo- Scottish freight flows – a mix of container traffic, cement and nuclear cargos – also Newcastle use the route.

47  Carlisle The region Scotland Route Study

This route linking Newcastle to Scotland is the least populous area served by the ECML. As the route runs north, the suburban towns north of Newcastle give way to rural coastland through to the limit of this study at Berwick-upon-Tweed.

Northeast of Newcastle, the historic port of Blyth still handles up to 2 million tonnes of cargo per year including container freight and pulp paper products from northern Europe; however, the scale of industry in the area saw a steep decline in the latter half of the 20th century. In recent years, the area has attracted investment in renewable energy production, but not on the same scale as the coal power of earlier times. One of the legacies of this industrial heritage is an extensive freight network in the Blyth area that links to the ECML.

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It may be advantageous to look at the growing population centres in the and Morpeth areas and consider if mainline station facilities should be consolidated to provide efficient road/rail interchange targeting commuter journeys to Newcastle.

Other options are available to increase the frequency of local peak services. A proposal by Northumberland to introduce passenger services to the Blyth and Tyne freight railway system is already well advanced, and offers a clear way to link the population centres north of the Tyne with the commercial opportunities of Newcastle. There is currently line capacity on the ECML to support an increase in service levels into Newcastle.

Making sure that the rail infrastructure can support growth in freight traffic is also a Safety and resilience consideration for this section of the route. The industry strategy for freight services is to move toward train lengths of 775m. To With long sections of railway running accommodate trains of this length some of through remote countryside, maintainability the existing passing loops on the ECML will and weather resilience are key issues for need to be upgraded. this section of the route. By using a risk- Growth Strategic highlights based approach, the Network Rail asset Journey times management strategy is to identify and monitor potential failure points in the Demand for long distance train services Applying the overall strategic themes railway system, and to target maintenance to Edinburgh is set to grow steadily. For presented earlier to the Newcastle to Opportunities exist between Newcastle and and renewals activity proportionately. example, London to Edinburgh demand is Berwick-upon-Tweed route section, leads to Berwick-upon-Tweed to improve linespeeds forecast to grow by around 175% of 2012 the following key considerations. up to 140mph and drive down journey At the heart of this approach is an efficient levels by the early 2040s. Seating capacity times. Approximately 1.5 minutes could be use of asset condition monitoring: the is forecast to keep up with this growing saved on this route section. strategy here is to use technology to allow demand; this is made possible by the Providing the services that the remote monitoring of assets so that additional services and new trains due to Technology the workforce is kept safer, and a ‘predict’ come into service in the early 2020s. customers need (deterioration) and ‘prevent’ (failures) maintenance regime is made possible. As with services from the South into For this section of the ECML route, the Throughout the ECML, conversion to digital Newcastle, demand for peak-time priority for managing passenger demand signalling technologies is a strategic aim, One area of particular concern on this passenger travel into Newcastle from will be to enable sufficient capacity for and it has the potential to increase line section of railway is traction power the Morpeth direction is forecast to grow commuter journeys to and from Newcastle. capacity, performance and enable of higher (electricity) supply for trains. Here the throughout the period through to the To do this, a range of service options would linespeeds; without it, the capabilities of physical challenges of connecting into 2040s. While this may lead to a shortfall be possible, including using long distance existing technologies need to be stretched, suitable power supplies at remote locations, in capacity on local commuter trains into trains, adding extra capacity to existing which can lead to costly upgrades to legacy and tackling the effects of extreme weather Newcastle from the mid 2020s, spare seats local services, or by introducing new services. systems. On this part of the ECML route events (especially high winds) on overhead on long distance trains could be used to with long stretches of two-track railway, lines, are considerable. A mix of strategies supplement overall capacity. The ability to use long distance trains to opportunities to leverage extra line capacity is required to allow for growth in demand serve peak commuter markets is constrained from digital signalling are limited, due to while minimising the risk to service; these by platform lengths on the stations north of the different speeds and stopping patterns include new power supply technologies, risk- Newcastle: only Morpeth has both platform of trains. But digital technologies to enable based asset management, and upgrading capacity and the sort of population higher linespeeds, and to provide better ageing infrastructure.

catchment that can support long trains traffic management is a possibility. 48 Link to long distance serving jobs growth with Newcastle. market study

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Investment options that Investment Choices: support economic growth

ECML Borders The investment choices set out below are the sorts of railway enhancement that should be considered to drive growth over the medium to long term on this section of railway. Base level scenarios needed to meet service increases set out in franchise commitments. A supplementary that address demand renewals programme is also needed to Immediate investment Scope and Benefits Cost50 on current services meet planned increases in service levels priorities while also safeguarding target train performance levels (this will be achieved Link more people to jobs by This option would see the reintroduction of passenger services Med The immediate priorities shown below and through better infrastructure reliability). reinstating passenger services into Newcastle from the north of the city. Some railway marked * are already part of the Network on the Ashington Blyth and Tyne infrastructure improvements would be needed to upgrade the Rail enhancements delivery plan, and are railway. line from freight-only use.

By reinstating direct services into central Newcastle and other Immediate investment destinations in the wider Tyne and Wear Region, the 85,000 Benefits Cost50 priorities inhabitants of Blyth, Ashington and Bedlington would be given better access to jobs and commercial opportunities. Provide reliable power supply Upgrades the power supply for electric trains on the ECML Med Connecting to the East Coast Mainline, and with Metro sufficient for planned additional between Newcastle and Berwick-upon-Tweed. services north of the , the package would be a services to run.* stimulus to the growth of South East Northumberland, encouraging housing and economic growth, as well as providing a credible alternative to the car. Supplementary Renewals A programme of additional renewals to replace life-expired Very High Programme. † infrastructure and improve infrastructure reliability. Allow current infrastructure to use The aim here is to lengthen existing freight passing loops to TBC industry standard 775m freight accommodate the longer modern trains required by freight † This renewals programme and its business case will be assesses over the whole ECML route, not just this section. trains, enabling operational businesses. Longer trains offer increased environmental efficiencies. benefits, and more operationally efficient.

Reduce journey time and improve By upgrading the infrastructure north of Newcastle, linespeeds High reliability. can be improved and journey times reduced by 1.5 minutes Linespeeds can increase up to 140 between Newcastle and Berwick-upon-Tweed. mph by upgrading infrastructure; safety improvements are made by The improvements would see a step-change in the reliability closing level crossings; the reliability of overhead line electrification equipment. of the railway is improved with (The scope of this package overlaps with the ECML upgraded infrastructure. Supplementary Renewals Programme outlined above: cost efficiencies could be expected if both options were implemented.)

49 Network Rail Enhancements Delivery Plan

50 Low: up to £20m Medium: £20m to £200m High: £200m to £1000m Very high: >£1000m

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018 51 ECML Borders 52

Consultation and next steps

Consultation has now closed on the ECML Route Study. A document summarising the responses that were received has been produced and can be found here

The response document shows how the issues and priorities raised by respondents will be taken forward into further planning activity and business case development.

System Operator Planning a better network for you

June 2018 ECML Railway Investment Choices June 2018