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Study of Low Fertility in the Regions of the European Union: Places, Periods and Causes

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Study of Low Fertility in the Regions of the European Union: Places, Periods and Causes 2004 EDITION Population and social conditions 3/2004/F/no 4 Study of low fertility in the regions of the European Union: places, periods and causes THEME 3 Population EUROPEAN and social COMMISSION 3conditions Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union New freephone number: 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int). Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004 ISSN 1725-065X ISBN 92-894-7077-1 © European Communities, 2004 Population and social conditions 3/2004/F/n° 4 Study of low fertility in the regions of the European Union: places, periods and causes J. Duchêne, A. Gabadinho, M. Willems, P. Wanner Institut de démographie, Université Catholique de Louvain The views expressed in this document are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Commission Copyright: European Commission 2004 STUDY OF LOW FERTILITY IN THE REGIONS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: PLACES, PERIODS AND CAUSES PCA of fertility “timetables” in the 603 regions-periods 1,0 tftr16 tftr18tftr17 tftr44tftr43 tftr19 tftr15 tftr45 tftr42tftr41 tftr46 tftr40 tftr20 tftr14 tftr39 ,5 tftr47 tftr38 tftr21 tftr13 tftr48 tftr49 tftr37 tftr36 tftr22 tftr12 tftr35 tftr23 tftr34 Component 2 tftr33 0,0 tftr24 tftr32 tftr31 tftr25 tftr30 -,5 tftr26 tftr29 tftr27 tftr28 -1,0 -1,0 -,5 0,0 ,5 1,0 Component 1 Final report Josianne Duchêne Alexis Gabadinho Michel Willems with the assistance of Philippe Wanner Institut de démographie Université catholique de Louvain Louvain-la-Neuve November 2003 Study of low fertility in the regions of the European Union: places, timetable and causes TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................5 INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................................7 I. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON SPATIAL VARIATIONS OF FERTILITY IN EUROPE.....9 1. DESCRIPTION OF REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE EU MEMBER STATES..........................................................9 1.1 Germany.............................................................................................................................................9 1.2 England ..............................................................................................................................................9 1.3 Austria..............................................................................................................................................10 1.4 Belgium ............................................................................................................................................10 1.5 Spain ................................................................................................................................................10 1.6 France ..............................................................................................................................................11 1.7 Italy ..................................................................................................................................................11 1.8 Czech Republic .................................................................................................................................12 2. TRENDS IN SPATIAL VARIATIONS...............................................................................................................13 3. METHODS AND EXPLANATORY FACTORS ...................................................................................................13 3.1 Indicators used and measurement of differences ................................................................................13 3.1.1 Indicators...................................................................................................................................................13 3.1.2 Measurement of differences........................................................................................................................ 14 3.2 Factors of variation...........................................................................................................................15 3.2.1 Socio-economic variables...........................................................................................................................15 3.2.2 Migration...................................................................................................................................................17 3.2.3 “Contextual” variables................................................................................................................................ 18 3.2.4 Interaction between “context” and “individual”...........................................................................................21 4. CONCLUSION ...........................................................................................................................................21 II. DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL FERTILITY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION .........23 2.1. DATA, METHODS AND INDICATORS.........................................................................................................23 2.2. DESCRIPTION OF REGIONAL FERTILITY DISPARITIES: INTENSITY AND TIMETABLE .....................................24 Table 1 – Regional fertility disparities in the European Union, 1991-1999...............................................25 Graph 1 – Total fertility rate in the European Union, 1991-1993 and 1997-1999....................................26 Graph 2 – Trend (as %) in the total fertility rate in the European Union, between 1991-93 and 1994-96, and between 1994-96 and 1997-99..........................................................................................................26 Graph 3 – Trend in mean age at childbirth in the European Union, 1991-1999........................................27 Graph 4 – Trend in the standard deviation of age at childbirth in the European Union, 1991-1999 .........28 2.3 STRUCTURE OF REGIONAL FERTILITY DIFFERENCES..................................................................................29 Graph 5 – Projection of the three fertility indicators in the first factorial design, after rotation................29 Table 2 – Composition and characteristics of the seven clusters obtained by classification in respect of three principal components summarising TFR, AC and SD for the three sub-periods ...............................30 Table 3 – Composition and characteristics of the eight clusters obtained by classification in respect of the standardised fertility rates of the 603 regions-periods..............................................................................32 III. LOW FERTILITY REGIONS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION .......................................................35 3.1. IN WHICH REGIONS IS FERTILITY CURRENTLY LOWER THAN THE EUROPEAN MEAN?..................................35 Map 1 – The fertility of the European regions, 1991-1993 .......................................................................36 Map 2 – The fertility of the European regions, 1994-1996 .......................................................................37 Map 3 – The fertility of the European regions, 1997-1999 .......................................................................38 Table 4 – List of regions showing fertility lower than the “European mean”, 1997-99 ...........................39 Table 4 – List of regions showing fertility lower than the “European mean”, 1997-99 (continued)..........40 Map 4 – Mean age at childbirth in the European regions, 1991-1993 ......................................................41 Map 5 – Mean age at childbirth in the European regions, 1994-1996 ......................................................42 Map 6 – Mean age at childbirth in the European regions, 1997-1999 ......................................................43 3.2. SINCE WHEN HAS FERTILITY IN THESE REGIONS BEEN LOWER THAN THE EUROPEAN MEAN?......................44 3.2.1 National fertility.............................................................................................................................44 5 Study of low fertility in the regions of the European Union: places, timetable and causes Graph 6 – Trend in the TFR in the six countries showing fertility lower than the “European mean”, 1960- 2000 .......................................................................................................................................................44 3.2.2. Spain.............................................................................................................................................45 Graph 7 – Trend in the TFR of some Spanish regions in comparison with the EU, 1975-2000..................46 3.2.3 Italy ...............................................................................................................................................46 Graph 8 – Trend in the TFR of some Italian regions in comparison with the EU, 1959-2000....................46 3.2.4. Austria ..........................................................................................................................................47 Graph 9 – Trend in the TFR of some Austrian regions in comparison with the EU, 1970-1998................47
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