COVID-19 in Ukraine Epidemiologic Situation Update HC Meeting: 12 May 2021 HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Situation Update: Global
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Situation Update: European Region
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Weekly situation WHO European Region (as of 9 May 10H CEST)
• Previous week: Countries with the highest number of new cases in past week (wk18/2021) – 891,637 new confirmed cases from 56 countries. – 18,905 new deaths from 49 countries. – 16.4% of new global cases and 21.1% of new global deaths • Cumulative: – 52,843,731 confirmed cases. – 1,104,410 deaths.
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Situation Update: Ukraine
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Adaptive Quarantine in Ukraine: No Red Zones
As of 9th May: ➢ 9 Regions in Orange zone As of 26th April: • Volyn • Ternopil • Zhytomyr • Cherkasy • Kirovohrad • Mykolaiv • Luhansk • Donetsk ➢ 16 Regions in Yellow zone ➢ 10 Regions in Red Zone (Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, ➢ No Regions in Red zone Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv) ➢ 9 Regions in Orange zone ➢ 6 Regions in Yellow zone
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Comparison of Number of Confirmed Cases and Daily Number of Deaths (Normalized for 7 Days), 1 March 2020 – 09 May 2021, All Ukraine
18000 450 • Over the last 2 weeks, a steady decline in new 16000 400 reported cases 350 14000 • Over the last 2 weeks, 300 12000 a steady decline in 250 reported deaths 10000 200
8000 New cases New 150 deaths New 6000 100 4000 50
2000 0
0 -50
New cases (Normalized for 7 days) New deaths (Normalized for 7 days)2
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Comparison of Number of Daily Confirmed Cases, PCR Tests and Ag-RDTs* Conducted (Normalized for 7 Days), 1 March 2020 – 09 May 2021, All Ukraine
60000 18000
16000 50000 14000
40000 12000
10000 30000 8000
20000 6000
4000 10000 2000
0 0
New cases (Normalized for 7 days) New PCR tests (Normalized for 7 days) New Ag-RDTs (Normalized for 7 days)
*Data on Ag-RDTs started to be published by the Ministry of Health since 9 February 2021, although the Ag-RDTs are being used for COVID-19 confirmation since 10 December 2020
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Test Positivity Rate of PCR Tests Performed by Laboratory Network of Ukraine (Normalized for 7 Days), 10 September 2020 – 09 May 2021
70% Steady decrease in PCR test Private positivity rate ~ 12% from 39% 60% State in late March 50% Total 40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Test Positivity Rate of Ag-RDT Used in Ukraine (both HCF & Laboratory Network) (Normalized for 7 Days), 09 March 2021 – 09 May 2021
Steady decrease in Ag-RDT test 30% positivity rate ~ 15% from highest 26% in late March
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Relation of Positive PCR and Rapid Tests to New Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (Normalized for 7 Days), 09 February 2021 – 09 May 2021
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2-Apr 4-Apr 6-Apr 8-Apr
9-Feb
1-Mar 3-Mar 5-Mar 7-Mar 9-Mar
2-May
10-Apr 12-Apr 14-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 20-Apr 22-Apr 24-Apr 26-Apr 28-Apr 30-Apr
11-Feb 13-Feb 15-Feb 17-Feb 19-Feb 21-Feb 23-Feb 25-Feb 27-Feb
11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 31-Mar New cases (Normalized for 7 days) Ag-RDT positives (Normalized for 7 days) # of positive PCR samples (Normalized for 7 days)
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Trend Line of Daily Number of Hospitalizations and Discharges Due to COVID-19 (Suspected & Confirmed) 30 January 2021 – 26 April 2021, All Ukraine
5000 18000
4500 16000
4000 14000
3500 12000 3000
Discharges 10000 / / 2500 8000 2000 Cases New 6000
1500 Hospitalizations 4000 1000
500 2000
0 0
2-Apr 4-Apr 6-Apr 8-Apr
1-Feb 3-Feb 5-Feb 7-Feb 9-Feb
1-Mar 3-Mar 5-Mar 7-Mar 9-Mar
2-May
10-Apr 12-Apr 14-Apr 16-Apr 18-Apr 20-Apr 22-Apr 24-Apr 26-Apr 28-Apr 30-Apr
11-Feb 13-Feb 15-Feb 17-Feb 19-Feb 21-Feb 23-Feb 25-Feb 27-Feb
11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 31-Mar New cases (Normalized for 7 days) Hospitalizations (Normalized for 7 days) Discharges (Normalized for 7 days)
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Trend Line of Daily Number of Hospitalizations and Discharges Due to COVID-19 (Suspected & Confirmed) 30 January 2021 – 09 May 2021, Selected Regions
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast Kyiv City • 350 600 The national trend of slowing down admission rate across all regions of 300 500 250 Ukraine 400 200 300 150 • All regions experienced an increased 100 200 load in early February through late 50 100 March, as the daily number of 0 0 admissions exceeded the daily number 30-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 29-Mar 12-Apr 26-Apr 30-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 29-Mar 12-Apr 26-Apr of discharges Hospitalized (Normalized for 7 days) Discharged (Normalized for 7 days) Hospitalized (Normalized for 7 days) Discharged (Normalized for 7 days) • A shift between hospitalizations and Odesa Oblast Luhansk Oblast discharges took place in mid-April. In 70 300 western regions (Ivano-Frankivsk and 60 250 Zakarpattia), this shift was seen earlier, 50 200 in early March 40 150 30 100 20 • As of 9 May 2021, more patients are 10 50 being discharged than hospitalized in 0 0 all regions of the country 30-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 29-Mar 12-Apr 26-Apr 30-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 29-Mar 12-Apr 26-Apr
Hospitalized (Normalized for 7 days) Discharged (Normalized for 7 days) Hospitalized (Normalized for 7 days) Discharged (Normalized for 7 days)
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme Summary
- On 7 May 2021, the Minister of Health informed that Ukraine phased out the III COVID-19 wave. Starting 08 May 2021, all regions of Ukraine are in yellow/orange epidemiological zone
- The infection rate goes down, the percentage change of new cases of COVID-19 for 7 and 14 days dropped to -13% and lower. There is no regions showing positive percentage change of new cases of COVID-19. The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 steadily dropped down as well
- Number of PCR samples arriving to labs for testing also declined during the last 14 days, which coincides with a drop of new infections. Few regions with samples on queue, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Sumy and Kyiv City (more than 500 samples were standing in line daily over the last 2 weeks)
- Significant number of discharges was seen prior to the festive season. As of 9 May 2021, more patients are being discharged than hospitalized in all regions of the country
- Overall situation shows sustained improvement but worth close monitoring of situation in coming two to three weeks
HEALTH EMERGENCIES programme