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USAID Office of Transition Initiatives

2018 Social Cohesion & Reconciliation Index (SCORE) What is SCORE?

The SCORE Index is a research and analysis tool that helps policy makers and stakeholders in Ukraine understand political leanings, the drivers of conflict and social cohesion. It also helps identify potential threats to national unity and stability during Ukraine's democratic transition. SCORE was developed in 2012 by The Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development (SeeD) in partnership with UNDP and USAID. SCORE was conducted twice in Ukraine at a national level, in 2016 and in 2018. To date, SCORE has also been used in Cyprus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nepal, Liberia, Moldova and Iraq.

2016 2018 August 2015 and December 2016 November 2017 and March 2018 Overall Sample Size: 10, 278 Overall Sample Size: 10,060 Government Controlled Area (GCA): 9,337 Government Controlled Area2018 (GCA): - 9,018 Non-Government Controlled Area (NGCA) and : 941 Non-Government Controlled Area (NGCA) Luhansk and Donetsk: 1,042

Interpreting SCORE:

SCORE findings are presented as a series of indicators. Each indicator measures a particular phenomenon (e.g. economic security, social tolerance, support for reform or policies) and is derived from at least 3 questionnaire items. The scores are not percentages; they are composite index values that represent the intensity of a particular indicator as measured through a number of related questions.

How to Read Heat Maps

2018 -LEVEL SCORE Each oblast is shaded by color with the 2018 value according to the scale below: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Sumy CHANGE IN OBLAST SCORE # BETWEEN 2016 & 2018 The value in each circle denotes the change in value from 2016 to 2018 Kyiv Decrease -1.0 - If the value has decreased since 2016, the change is shown as negative

Increase Kirovohrad + If the value has increased since 2016, +1.0 the change is shown as positive

1 Methodology

The SCORE Index is based on a participatory research methodology where multilevel stakeholder consultations, focus groups and interviews are conducted to inform the calibration of a national survey. Once experts conduct a preliminary analysis of the data collected, SCORE results are further refined via stakeholder consultations and dialogue groups, which inform the formation of indices and policy briefs.

Government Controlled Non-Government 2018 Demographics Areas (GCA) Controlled Areas (NGCA) Information is broken Men 45% Women 55% 30-39 18-29 30-39 18-29 Men 45% Women 55% down by demographics 21% 16% 22% 14% including age, gender and 60+ 40-49 Age 60+ Rural Urban Age settlement, which helps Rural Urban 17% 29% 40-49 23% target activity beneficiaries 50-59 35% 21% 50-59 65% 4% to maximize efficiency of 17% 20% 96% program resources. GCA: N = 9,018 NGCA: N = 1,042

Groups and Their Characteristics NORTH 0 20 40 60 80 100 % Polarized Pro-EU In order to identify ‘16 Tolerant Reformer potential changemakers in Disconnected WEST ‘18 Tolerant Traditionalist society, SCORE examined 0 20 40 60 80 100 % Polarized Pro-* various civic and political ‘16 Hostile attitudes of Ukrainian ‘18 CENTER citizens and identified five 0 20 40 60 80 100 % different groups. EAST ‘16 0 20 40 60 80 100 % ‘18 ‘16 Change in Distribution ‘18 of Groups SOUTH 0 20 40 60 80 100 % 2016 ‘16 45% 2018 35% ‘18 31% 19% 15% 15% 15% 15% 7% 2% *Polarized Pro-Russia category only Polarized Tolerant Disconnected Tolerant Polarized Hostile Pro-EU Reformer Traditionalist Pro-Russia* present in 2016

Polarized Pro-EU Tolerant Reformer Disconnected Tolerant Traditionalist Hostile This group strongly supports a This group supports This group is increasingly This group tends to be This group is hostile toward European future for Ukraine, change and reform for disenfranchised by politics older and nostalgic for Russia, the West and Ukraine. but does not embrace many Ukraine and embraces and is economically insecure. Soviet times, but is They are intolerant and open democratic values, such as values such as social Many from this group were tolerant and open to to political violence. pluralism. They are strongly cohesion and diversity. previously strongly aligned dialogue about the future nationalistic and more open to toward Russia. of Ukraine. political violence. 2 FOSTERING CONSTRUCTIVE CITIZENSHIP AND UNIFYING NATIONAL VISIONS

SCORE measured the prevalence of constructive, democratic civic values such as social tolerance, civic engagement and readiness for compromise among the Ukrainian population. TOP RECOMMENDATIONS & TAKEAWAYS Geopolitical leanings are becoming less important. Most support some ties with Russia and the EU. In there is some support for the EU, while is more skeptical of relations with Russia. The community of tolerant reformers is growing in the east and south of Ukraine. However, many Ukrainians with any Russian political and cultural sentiments do not feel free to voice their political opinions, leading to disengagement by a significant portion of the population. Support for a pluralistic Ukrainian identity is strong in the east and south, but Ukrainian identity is understood based more on ethnicity in the west. There is an opportunity to build unity around a vision for Ukraine that emphasizes core Western values such as civic engagement, good governance, and human rights. CHANGES SINCE 2016 + What Improved What Stayed The Same - What Got Worse Growing civic optimism A concerning readiness for violence Increase in tolerance for corruption Higher support for a pluralistic Very low civic engagement Decrease in perceived benefit from Ukrainian identity, particularly in the Somewhat low social tolerance, the EU and increased skepticism about east and south particularly in the northwest the EU’s stability

National SOCIAL TOLERANCE Average The degree to which one accepts 2016 2018 Volyn different groups, backgrounds and 4.5 4.8 Chernihiv -1.6 identities within their communities. -0.6 Kyiv City +1.9

Lviv +1.4 Kyiv Khmelnytskyi Poltava +1.6 -0.5 Cherkasy +0.9 Luhansk +0.9 ZakarpattyaIvano-Frankivsk +0.5 Donetsk +2.7 +1.0 NGCA Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk Luhansk -2.2 -0.8 NGCA Donetsk

2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa +0.5 +0.6 No Social Very High +1.4 Tolerance Social Tolerance *Colors show the overall level of social tolerance; numbers represent changes CHANGE IN OBLAST SCORE since 2016. BETWEEN 2016 & 2018

Decrease - Increase + 3 Maps and Graphics Continued PRO-EU ORIENTATION The degree to which one supports EU National Volyn Average integration and NATO membership, and +0.5 Rivne would vote positively in a potential EU 2016 2018 Chernihiv Sumy accession referendum. 6.5 5.9 -0.6 Zhytomyr Kyiv City -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi -1.3 Poltava Kharkiv -0.8 Luhansk Ivano- Vinnytsia Cherkasy Frankivsk Zakarpattya -1.3 -2.3 Donetsk +1.8 Chernivtsi Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk -1.4 -0.7

2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa Zaporizhzhia -0.5 Kherson No Pro-EU Very High Pro-EU Orientation Orientation *Colors show the overall level of pro-EU orientation; numbers represent changes since 2016.

SOVIET NOSTALGIA National Volyn The extent to which one regrets the Average collapse of the and believes -1.9 Rivne Chernihiv 2016 2018 -1.0 Sumy that life was better before 1991. 5.8 5.5 Zhytomyr Kyiv City -0.5 -0.7 Lviv -0.9 Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava Kharkiv Luhansk Ivano- Vinnytsia Frankivsk Cherkasy Zakarpattya +0.9 +0.8 -0.7 Dnipropetrovsk Donetsk Chernivtsi Kirovohrad -0.5 -1.1

2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa -0.8 Kherson No Soviet Very High -1.2 Nostalgia Soviet Nostalgia *Colors show the overall level of soviet nostalgia; numbers represent changes since 2016.

4 SUPPORT FOR THE REFORM PROCESS

SCORE identified and measured the drivers and strategic entry points for improving public support for Ukraine’s ambitious reform process.

TOP RECOMMENDATIONS & TAKEAWAYS Support for all reforms, with the exception of privatization (while very low), is declining. People are most skeptical of “pocket book reforms” such as pensions, healthcare and utilities. Corruption remains a key grievance of the public, but support for anti-corruption reform is waning as people lose hope in the possibility of progress. There is a correlation between economic security and reforms (i.e. people expect the reform process to lead to tangible improvements in their quality of life). Strengthening civic values has a positive impact on perception of reforms. CHANGES SINCE 2016 + What Improved What Stayed The Same - What Got Worse Increased feelings of economic, human Low trust in local and national Decreased support for decentralization, and personal security in most authorities, security services and deregulation and anti-corruption reforms media institutions Improved perceptions of infrastructure Significant increase in tolerance to and state services Low support for privatization reform corruption

OVERALL SUPPORT National Volyn FOR REFORMS Average Rivne Chernihiv The level of support for various 7.2 government reforms: decentralization, Kyiv Sumy privatization, pension, education, Zhytomyr City health and anti-corruption.

Lviv Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava Kharkiv Luhansk Cherkasy Ivano-Frankivsk Vinnytsia Zakarpattya Donetsk Chernivtsi Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk

Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia Odesa 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Kherson 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

No Support Very High Support *Colors show the overall level of for Reforms for Reforms support for reforms; overall support for reforms was not measured in 2016.

5 Maps and Graphics Continued I SUPPORT FOR PRIVATIZATION REFORM The degree to which one supports National Volyn Average privatization reform. +3.8 Rivne Chernihiv 2016 2018 Sumy 3.5 3.6 Zhytomyr Kyiv -0.7 City +1.8 +2.3 +1.1 Lviv Kyiv Poltava Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Kharkiv -0.9 -1.1 +4.1 +0.6 Luhansk Ivano- Vinnytsia Cherkasy Frankivsk Zakarpattya +0.7 -2.3 Donetsk Chernivtsi Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk +0.5 +1.1

2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa +1.7 Zaporizhzhia Kherson No Support Very High Support -0.5 for Reform for Reform *Colors show the overall level of support for privatization; numbers represent changes since 2016.

SUPPORT FOR ANTI-CORRUPTION REFORM National Volyn Level of support for national and local Average Chernihiv level anti-corruption reform. -0.5 Rivne 2016 2018 -1.3 8.8 7.9 -2.1 Kyiv Sumy Zhytomyr City

Lviv Kyiv Poltava Kharkiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi -0.9 -4.7 -1.0 Luhansk Ivano- Cherkasy - 0.6 Frankivsk Vinnytsia Zakarpattya -2.2 Donetsk -0.5 Chernivtsi Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk -1.4 -4.1 -3.4

2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa -1.6 -0.6 Kherson No Support Very High Support -1.2 for Reform for Reform *Colors show the overall level of support for anti-corruption reform; numbers represent changes since 2016. CHANGE IN OBLAST SCORE BETWEEN 2016 & 2018

Decrease - Increase + 6 Maps and Graphics Continued II SUPPORT FOR DECENTRALIZATION & DEREGULATION REFORM Level of support for decentralization & National Volyn deregulation reform. Average Rivne Chernihiv -0.7 2016 2018 -1.2 -1.7 Zhytomyr Kyiv Sumy 7.4 6.7 City +1.6

Lviv Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava -1.0 Kharkiv Luhansk -0.5 -0.7 Cherkasy -3.6 Ivano- Vinnytsia Frankivsk -0.7 Zakarpattya -1.6 -0.9 -1.6 Chernivtsi Dnipropetrovsk Donetsk Kirovohrad -1.5 -0.5 -1.4

2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia Odesa 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -1.9 -0.8 Kherson No Support Very High Support +1.4 for Reform for Reform *Colors show the overall level of support for decentralization & deregulation reform; numbers represent changes since 2016.

Skepticism About Implementation of Reforms Strongly/Somewhat Disagree Don’t Know National Averages Strongly/Somewhat Agree

*The below are examples of individual questions that form the overall “Support for Reform” indicator.

70% 70% 65%

21% 20% 19% 14% 10% 11%

Reforms in Ukraine are merely Reforms in Ukraine will not Reforms have been successful publicity stunts and they will benefit the ordinary people, in gradually improving our not be implemented effectively. they will only benefit the elite. country’s situation. 7 IMPACT ON PARTICIPANTS IN THE WAR

SCORE found that up to a quarter of the Ukrainian population participated in the war or are close to a participant. TOP RECOMMENDATIONS & TAKEAWAYS A quarter of the population, or up to 10 million Ukrainians, either participated in the war or are a family member or close friend of someone who served in the armed forces during the war. This group is more likely to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, exhibit more aggression and intolerance, and have lower empathy, social skills and family cohesion. They are more likely to have radical nationalistic tendencies and be economically insecure. The highest concentrations of war participants are in western Ukraine and Kyiv. Effective rehabilitation and outreach programs to this community could have a strong impact on improving tolerance and support for an inclusive Ukrainian identity.

Of the 10,060 people surveyed... Of those who have participated in or are close to someone who participated in the war... Participated in the war or are a family member or 64% 2,124 56% 49% 24% close friend of someone who served in the armed forces during the war. 14% 6,894 76% Were not affected. Women Live in Under 29 30-55 urban areas years old years old

RELATIONSHIP TO THE WAR AND ITS DISTRIBUTION National Volyn Exposure to the war was Average Rivne Chernihiv measured by asking whether you 2.7 Kyiv personally or someone close to you Sumy Zhytomyr City served in the armed forces in eastern Ukraine.

Lviv Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava Kharkiv Luhansk Cherkasy Ivano-Frankivsk Vinnytsia Zakarpattya Donetsk Chernivtsi NGCA Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk Luhansk NGCA Donetsk

Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Odesa 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kherson

No Relationship Very High Relationship *Colors show the overall strength to the War to the War of relationship to the war; overall relationship to the war was not measured in 2016.

8 Maps and Graphics Continued

Mental Health and Civic Attitudes of Participants in Affected, Relationship with the War the War Compared to Those That Were Not Affected Not Affected, No Relationship with the War

6.9 6.5 6.0 5.7 5.4 4.5 4.1 3.8

2.8 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0

Post Aggression Substance Sense of Belief in Pluralistic Discrimination Discrimination Marginalization Traumatic Abuse Agency Human Ukrainian Towards IDPs Towards People Stress Rights Identity with Pro-Russian Disorder Orientation

*National average based on a 0 - 10 scale; the above indicators measure the traits of participants in the war and their close friends and families compared to those who were not affected by the war.

9 INTERGROUP RELATIONS AND FUTURE OF THE

SCORE assessed Ukrainians’ perceptions about prospects for peace and the future of the areas affected by the ongoing war in the east, unveiling key differences in intergroup relations. TOP RECOMMENDATIONS & TAKEAWAYS Ukrainians in the NGCAs and GCAs both have similar desires to reunite. Support for reintegration is significantly lower in the west than the east. Support in the west is decreasing due to fatigue from the conflict and a lack of understanding or visible progress of the peace process. Reintegration is threatened by poor intergroup relations and lack of contact between eastern and western Ukraine. Hostility in the west toward the east of the country is slightly higher than hostility in the east toward the west. The non-government controlled areas of the country have a strong skepticism of the Ukrainian government and its efforts to end the war. Ensuring a Donbas perspective in discussions about the peace process will be essential to its success.

CHANGES SINCE 2016 + What Improved What Stayed The Same - What Got Worse Increased feeling of human security and Intergroup tensions and stereotypes felt Increased fatigue of the war across the civic optimism, which provides room for by Ukrainians across the country country is exacerbated by the absence constructive dialogue Support for peace talks across Ukraine of clear reintegration strategy Support for unity of Ukrainians nationwide and territorial integrity of Ukraine SUPPORT FOR REINTEGRATION OF DONETSK & LUHANSK National Support for preserving the territorial Average Volyn integrity of Ukraine by reintegrating the Chernihiv 2016 2018 -3.1 non-government controlled territories of Rivne -1.8 6.0 5.9 Luhansk and Donetsk. Zhytomyr Kyiv Sumy City +0.9

Lviv Kyiv Khmelnytskyi Ternopil +0.8 Poltava Kharkiv Luhansk -0.6 +1.0 Cherkasy ZakarpattyaIvano-Frankivsk Vinnytsia Donetsk -1.2 -0.9 Chernivtsi NGCA -1.8 Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk Luhansk NGCA Donetsk 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia Odesa Kherson No Support Very High Support +2.8 for Reintegration for Reintegration *Colors show the overall level of support for reintegration; numbers CHANGE IN OBLAST SCORE represent changes since 2016. BETWEEN 2016 & 2018 Decrease - Increase + 10 Maps and Graphics Continued TENSION TOWARD PEOPLE FROM EASTERN UKRAINE The degree to which one has hostile feelings National Volyn toward people from eastern Ukraine. Average Rivne Chernihiv 3.6 Kyiv Sumy Zhytomyr City

Lviv Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava Kharkiv Luhansk Ivano- Cherkasy Frankivsk Vinnytsia Zakarpattya Donetsk Chernivtsi Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk

Mykolayiv 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Odesa Zaporizhzhia 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kherson

*Colors show the overall level of tension No Hostility Very High Hostility towards people from eastern Ukraine.

TENSION TOWARD PEOPLE FROM WESTERN UKRAINE The degree to which one has hostile feelings National Volyn toward people from western Ukraine. Average Rivne Chernihiv 3.0 Kyiv Sumy Zhytomyr City

Lviv Kyiv Poltava Kharkiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Luhansk Ivano- Cherkasy Frankivsk Zakarpattya Vinnytsia Kirovohrad Donetsk Chernivtsi Dnipropetrovsk

Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Odesa 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kherson

No Hostility Very High Hostility *Colors show the overall level of tension towards people from western Ukraine.

11 SCORE Predictive Models

SCORE allows policy makers and those designing development programs to identify the outcomes and results that will contribute to specific development and peacebuilding goals. More models are available at www.scoreforpeace.org/en/ukraine.

Increase Social Connectedness Increasing Support for Reform

Support for reforms is not just about Increase Personal Coherence and Human Security witnessing or participating in the reform process. Ukrainians with strong civic Decrease Tolerance values such as social tolerance, respect for Corruption IMPROVE for human rights and social responsibility SUPPORT are more likely to support the Improve Tolerance and FOR REFORMS reform process. Respect for Human Rights

Reduce Social and Political Marginalization

Strengthen Pluralistic Ukrainian Identity

Increase Social Connectedness Improving Intergroup Relations

Increase Personal Ukrainians are increasingly becoming Coherence and Human Security united around a national identity that values tolerance and pluralism. Some Decrease Tolerance regions of the country have embraced for Corruption IMPROVE this identity more than others, and INTERGROUP strengthening these underlying values Improve Tolerance and RELATIONS Respect for Human Rights can improve intergroup relations across Ukraine. Reduce Social and Political Marginalization

Strengthen Pluralistic Ukrainian Identity

Pro-European Orientation in Eastern Ukraine

According to the SCORE longitudinal predictive model, two main Improved Services Increase Support factors influence whether Ukrainians share pro-European orientation and values. The model finds that one of the strongest predictors of pro-European orientation is experience with improved service PRO-EUROPEAN ORIENTATION delivery which results in stronger trust in institutions. Conversely, the IN EASTERN UKRAINE model finds that a strong sense of Soviet nostalgia, rooted in values such as social welfare, empathy and fairness, and a strong skepticism of free markets, rather than allegiance to or influence by Russia, inhibits Soviet Nostalgia Erodes Support European orientation. 12