USAID Office of Transition Initiatives 2018 Ukraine Social Cohesion & Reconciliation Index (SCORE) What is SCORE? The SCORE Index is a research and analysis tool that helps policy makers and stakeholders in Ukraine understand political leanings, the drivers of conflict and social cohesion. It also helps identify potential threats to national unity and stability during Ukraine's democratic transition. SCORE was developed in 2012 by The Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development (SeeD) in partnership with UNDP and USAID. SCORE was conducted twice in Ukraine at a national level, in 2016 and in 2018. To date, SCORE has also been used in Cyprus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nepal, Liberia, Moldova and Iraq. 2016 2018 August 2015 and December 2016 November 2017 and March 2018 Overall Sample Size: 10, 278 Overall Sample Size: 10,060 Government Controlled Area (GCA): 9,337 Government Controlled Area2018 (GCA): - 9,018 Non-Government Controlled Area (NGCA) Luhansk and Donetsk: 941 Non-Government Controlled Area (NGCA) Luhansk and Donetsk: 1,042 Interpreting SCORE: SCORE findings are presented as a series of indicators. Each indicator measures a particular phenomenon (e.g. economic security, social tolerance, support for reform or policies) and is derived from at least 3 questionnaire items. The scores are not percentages; they are composite index values that represent the intensity of a particular indicator as measured through a number of related questions. How to Read Heat Maps 2018 OBLAST-LEVEL SCORE Each oblast is shaded by color with the 2018 value according to the scale below: Chernihiv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sumy CHANGE IN OBLAST SCORE Kyiv # City BETWEEN 2016 & 2018 The value in each circle denotes the change in value from 2016 to 2018 Kyiv Poltava Decrease -1.0 - If the value has decreased since 2016, Cherkasy the change is shown as negative Increase Kirovohrad + If the value has increased since 2016, +1.0 the change is shown as positive 1 Methodology The SCORE Index is based on a participatory research methodology where multilevel stakeholder consultations, focus groups and interviews are conducted to inform the calibration of a national survey. Once experts conduct a preliminary analysis of the data collected, SCORE results are further refined via stakeholder consultations and dialogue groups, which inform the formation of indices and policy briefs. Government Controlled Non-Government 2018 Demographics Areas (GCA) Controlled Areas (NGCA) Information is broken Men 45% Women 55% 30-39 18-29 30-39 18-29 Men 45% Women 55% down by demographics 21% 16% 22% 14% including age, gender and 60+ 40-49 Age 60+ Rural Urban Age settlement, which helps Rural Urban 17% 29% 40-49 23% target activity beneficiaries 50-59 35% 21% 50-59 65% 4% to maximize efficiency of 17% 20% 96% program resources. GCA: N = 9,018 NGCA: N = 1,042 Groups and Their Characteristics NORTH 0 20 40 60 80 100 % Polarized Pro-EU In order to identify ‘16 Tolerant Reformer potential changemakers in Disconnected WEST ‘18 Tolerant Traditionalist society, SCORE examined 0 20 40 60 80 100 % Polarized Pro-Russia* various civic and political ‘16 Hostile attitudes of Ukrainian ‘18 CENTER citizens and identified five 0 20 40 60 80 100 % different groups. EAST ‘16 0 20 40 60 80 100 % ‘18 ‘16 Change in Distribution ‘18 of Groups SOUTH 0 20 40 60 80 100 % 2016 ‘16 45% 2018 35% ‘18 31% 19% 15% 15% 15% 15% 7% 2% *Polarized Pro-Russia category only Polarized Tolerant Disconnected Tolerant Polarized Hostile Pro-EU Reformer Traditionalist Pro-Russia* present in 2016 Polarized Pro-EU Tolerant Reformer Disconnected Tolerant Traditionalist Hostile This group strongly supports a This group supports This group is increasingly This group tends to be This group is hostile toward European future for Ukraine, change and reform for disenfranchised by politics older and nostalgic for Russia, the West and Ukraine. but does not embrace many Ukraine and embraces and is economically insecure. Soviet times, but is They are intolerant and open democratic values, such as values such as social Many from this group were tolerant and open to to political violence. pluralism. They are strongly cohesion and diversity. previously strongly aligned dialogue about the future nationalistic and more open to toward Russia. of Ukraine. political violence. 2 FOSTERING CONSTRUCTIVE CITIZENSHIP AND UNIFYING NATIONAL VISIONS SCORE measured the prevalence of constructive, democratic civic values such as social tolerance, civic engagement and readiness for compromise among the Ukrainian population. TOP RECOMMENDATIONS & TAKEAWAYS Geopolitical leanings are becoming less important. Most Ukrainians support some ties with Russia and the EU. In eastern Ukraine there is some support for the EU, while western Ukraine is more skeptical of relations with Russia. The community of tolerant reformers is growing in the east and south of Ukraine. However, many Ukrainians with any Russian political and cultural sentiments do not feel free to voice their political opinions, leading to disengagement by a significant portion of the population. Support for a pluralistic Ukrainian identity is strong in the east and south, but Ukrainian identity is understood based more on ethnicity in the west. There is an opportunity to build unity around a vision for Ukraine that emphasizes core Western values such as civic engagement, good governance, and human rights. CHANGES SINCE 2016 + What Improved What Stayed The Same - What Got Worse Growing civic optimism A concerning readiness for violence Increase in tolerance for corruption Higher support for a pluralistic Very low civic engagement Decrease in perceived benefit from Ukrainian identity, particularly in the Somewhat low social tolerance, the EU and increased skepticism about east and south particularly in the northwest the EU’s stability National SOCIAL TOLERANCE Average The degree to which one accepts 2016 2018 Volyn different groups, backgrounds and 4.5 4.8 Chernihiv -1.6 Rivne identities within their communities. Sumy -0.6 Zhytomyr Kyiv City +1.9 Lviv +1.4 Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava +1.6 Kharkiv -0.5 Cherkasy +0.9 Luhansk Vinnytsia +0.9 ZakarpattyaIvano-Frankivsk +0.5 Donetsk +2.7 +1.0 Chernivtsi NGCA Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk Luhansk -2.2 -0.8 NGCA Donetsk 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa +0.5 +0.6 Kherson No Social Very High +1.4 Tolerance Social Tolerance *Colors show the overall level of social tolerance; numbers represent changes CHANGE IN OBLAST SCORE since 2016. BETWEEN 2016 & 2018 Decrease - Increase + 3 Maps and Graphics Continued PRO-EU ORIENTATION The degree to which one supports EU National Volyn Average integration and NATO membership, and +0.5 Rivne would vote positively in a potential EU 2016 2018 Chernihiv Sumy accession referendum. 6.5 5.9 -0.6 Zhytomyr Kyiv City -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 Lviv Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi -1.3 Poltava Kharkiv -0.8 Luhansk Ivano- Vinnytsia Cherkasy Frankivsk Zakarpattya -1.3 -2.3 Donetsk +1.8 Chernivtsi Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk -1.4 -0.7 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa Zaporizhzhia -0.5 Kherson No Pro-EU Very High Pro-EU Orientation Orientation *Colors show the overall level of pro-EU orientation; numbers represent changes since 2016. SOVIET NOSTALGIA National Volyn The extent to which one regrets the Average collapse of the Soviet Union and believes -1.9 Rivne Chernihiv 2016 2018 -1.0 Sumy that life was better before 1991. 5.8 5.5 Zhytomyr Kyiv City -0.5 -0.7 Lviv -0.9 Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava Kharkiv Luhansk Ivano- Vinnytsia Frankivsk Cherkasy Zakarpattya +0.9 +0.8 -0.7 Dnipropetrovsk Donetsk Chernivtsi Kirovohrad -0.5 -1.1 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Odesa -0.8 Kherson No Soviet Very High -1.2 Nostalgia Soviet Nostalgia *Colors show the overall level of soviet nostalgia; numbers represent changes since 2016. 4 SUPPORT FOR THE REFORM PROCESS SCORE identified and measured the drivers and strategic entry points for improving public support for Ukraine’s ambitious reform process. TOP RECOMMENDATIONS & TAKEAWAYS Support for all reforms, with the exception of privatization (while very low), is declining. People are most skeptical of “pocket book reforms” such as pensions, healthcare and utilities. Corruption remains a key grievance of the public, but support for anti-corruption reform is waning as people lose hope in the possibility of progress. There is a correlation between economic security and reforms (i.e. people expect the reform process to lead to tangible improvements in their quality of life). Strengthening civic values has a positive impact on perception of reforms. CHANGES SINCE 2016 + What Improved What Stayed The Same - What Got Worse Increased feelings of economic, human Low trust in local and national Decreased support for decentralization, and personal security in most oblasts authorities, security services and deregulation and anti-corruption reforms media institutions Improved perceptions of infrastructure Significant increase in tolerance to and state services Low support for privatization reform corruption OVERALL SUPPORT National Volyn FOR REFORMS Average Rivne Chernihiv The level of support for various 7.2 government reforms: decentralization, Kyiv Sumy privatization, pension, education, Zhytomyr City health and anti-corruption. Lviv Kyiv Ternopil Khmelnytskyi Poltava Kharkiv Luhansk Cherkasy Ivano-Frankivsk Vinnytsia Zakarpattya Donetsk Chernivtsi Kirovohrad Dnipropetrovsk Mykolayiv Zaporizhzhia Odesa 2018 OBLAST LEVEL SCORES Kherson 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 No Support Very High Support *Colors show the overall level of for Reforms for Reforms support for reforms; overall support for reforms was not measured in 2016. 5 Maps and Graphics Continued I SUPPORT FOR PRIVATIZATION REFORM The degree to which one supports National Volyn Average privatization reform.