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North-East Nigeria NORTH-EAST NIGERIA Recovery and Volume I Peace Building Assessment Synthesis Report THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA NORTH-EAST NIGERIA Recovery and Volume I Peace Building Assessment Synthesis Report THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Nigeria Country Office: 102 Yakubu Gowon Crescent, Asokoro, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Federal Republic of Nigeria Telephone: +234 7035830641-4 Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria World Bank Headquarters: 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433, USA Telephone: +1 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org European Union Delegation to Nigeria & ECOWAS 21st Crescent, Off Constitution Av., Central Business District, Garki, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, Federal Republic of Nigeria Telephone: +234 94617800 Internet: www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/nigeria United Nations – Nigeria UN House, Plot 617/618 Diplomatic Drive, Central Business District, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, Federal Republic of Nigeria Telephone: +2348111399927 Internet: www.ng.one.un.org or www.ng.undp.org This Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (RPBA) for North-East Nigeria is a col- laborative product by the Federal Government of the Republic of Nigeria and the State Governments of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe. The assessment was prepared with support from the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and the World Bank (WB). Acknowledging the different mandates of the institutions that supported the assessment (EU, UN and WB) and areas of expertise, the findings, conclusions, and recom- mendations expressed in the RPBA do not necessarily constitute the views or formal recommendations of the EU, UN, or WB, nor do they reflect the views of the governing bodies of these institutions or their member States. It is also recognized that due to different mandates not all activities set forth or proposed in the report will be shared by or engaged in by the collaborating institutions, and it is further understood that each institution will carry out or be engaged with any such activities in accordance with its mandate, and operational policies and procedures. The EU, UN, and WB do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of these partners concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the authors encourage dissemination of their knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected] Volume I Synthesis Report Table of Contents VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIII FOREWORD IX MESSAGES FROM THE SIX STATES OF NORTH-EAST NIGERIA XII ACRONYMS 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 01 Objectives 02 Methodology 02 Recovery Strategy and Framework 03 Financial Impacts and Needs from the Crisis 04 Cross-cutting Issues 04 Critical Success Factors for Implementation and Financing 05 Monitoring and Evaluation 05 Recovery Financing and Public Expenditure Management 05 Next Steps 06 RATIONALE AND SCOPE 06 1.1. Background and Objectives 07 1.2. Objectives and Vision of the Assessment 09 1.3. Assessment Approach 11 1.4. Methodology, Assumptions and Constraints 13 1.5. Report Structure 14 CONTEXT ANALYSIS 14 2.1. Background 16 2.2. Government Response 17 2.3. The International Humanitarian Response 20 2.4. Factors behind the Crisis 22 2.5. Dynamics of the Conflict 23 2.6. Emerging Risks and Scenarios for RPBA Implementation VOLUME I : SYNTHESIS REPORT RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING ASSESSMENT III 25 A FRAMEWORK FOR RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING PRIORITIES 25 3.1. Humanitarian Context 26 3.2. Basic Principles and Values for Recovery and Peace Building 28 3.3. Prioritising and Sequencing Recovery and Peace Building Efforts 29 3.4. An Integrated and Holistic Response 30 3.5. Strategic Framework for Recovery and Peace Building 36 SUMMARY OF RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING NEEDS 36 4.1. Overview of Impacts, Needs, and Financial Requirements 38 4.2. Peace Building, Stability, and Social Cohesion 38 4.2.1. Impacts of the Conflict on Peace Building, Stability and Social Cohesion 39 4.2.2. Overview of Needs for Peace Building, Stability and Social Cohesion 42 4.3. Infrastructure and Social Services 42 4.3.1. Impacts of the crisis on infrastructure and social services 44 4.3.2 Strategic Approach for Infrastructure and Social Services 46 4.3.3. Overview of Needs and Financial Requirements for Infrastructure and Social Services 49 4.4. Economic Recovery 49 4.4.1. Introduction 49 4.4.2. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impacts 50 4.4.3. Impacts on Private Sector, Trade and Financial Sector 50 4.4.4. Livelihood and Employment 52 4.4.5. Recommended Interventions for Economic Recovery 53 4.5. Cross-cutting Issues 53 4.5.1. Gender 56 4.5.2. Human Rights 57 4.5.3. Explosive Remnants of War 58 4.5.4. Youth 59 OPTIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION AND FINANCING 59 5.1. Institutional Challenges 59 5.1.1. Horizontal Coordination 60 5.1.2. Vertical Alignment 61 5.1.3. Front Line Institutional Set Up 61 5.2. Guiding Principles for Institutional Effectiveness 63 5.3. Options for Implementing Recovery and Peace Building Interventions 64 5.4. Critical Core Functions of an Enabling Institutional Framework 64 5.5. Monitoring Framework 65 5.5.1. Improving Existing M&E Systems 65 5.5.2. Mainstreaming Third Party Monitoring and Social Accountability Mechanisms IV VOLUME I : SYNTHESIS REPORT RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING ASSESSMENT 66 5.6. Financing Strategy and Modalities 66 5.6.1. Enhancing the Effectiveness of Public Spending 68 5.6.2. Resource Mobilisation 68 5.6.3. Ensuring Transparency and Accountability of Public Spending 69 OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK 86 REFERENCES 88 ENDNOTES List of Figures 10 FIGURE 1 Recovery and Peace Building Assessment Timeline 15 FIGURE 2 North-East Nigeria: Conflict fatalities by LGA and displacement by ward 16 FIGURE 3 Fatalities Related to the Boko Haram Violence and Other Conflicts in Nigeria: 2009 to 2015 18 FIGURE 4 Timeline of the Boko Haram Crisis10 46 FIGURE 5 Damages to Infrastructure (top); Infrastructure and Service Delivery Needs by sector (bottom) 51 FIGURE 6 North-East Region - Consolidated Revenue and Expenditure (Billions of Naira) and Budget Balance (Percent of Total Revenue, 2007-2015) 52 FIGURE 7 Distribution of the employed labour force, by employer for wave 1 (2010/11) and wave 2 (2012/13); Estimates based on GHS 2010/11 and GHS 2012/13 List of Boxes 12 BOX 1 Definitions of Damages, Needs and Building Back Better 28 BOX 2 Do-No-Harm Approach 29 BOX 3 Benchmarks for the Safe, Voluntary and Dignified Return of Displaced Populations VOLUME I : SYNTHESIS REPORT RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING ASSESSMENT V List of Tables 03 TABLE EX 1 Overall Recovery and Peace Building Needs by Component 08 TABLE 1 Recovery and Peace Building Assessment Component Breakdown 20 TABLE 2 Main factors of the conflict in North-East Nigeria, by type and field 30 TABLE 3 Strategic Recovery Framework 37 TABLE 4 Overall Recovery and Peace Building Needs by Component (US$ million) 40 TABLE 5 Estimated Needs for Peace Building, Stability and Social Cohesion by State 41 TABLE 6 Estimated Needs and Recommended Interventions for Peace Building, Stability and Social Cohesion 43 TABLE 7 Estimated damages related to Infrastructure and Social Services (US$ million) 47 TABLE 8 Estimated needs for infrastructure and social services (US$ million) 48 TABLE 9 Estimated Needs and Recommended Interventions for Infrastructure and Social Services 50 TABLE 10 Macroeconomic impacts by State 52 TABLE 11` Estimated Needs for Economic Recovery by State 54 TABLE 12 Estimated Needs and Recommended Interventions for Economic Recovery 63 TABLE 13 Comparative advantages of different institutional framework for recovery 64 TABLE 14 Indicative distribution of core functions across tiers of government for implementation of recovery and peace building strategy VI VOLUME I : SYNTHESIS REPORT RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING ASSESSMENT PREFACE Acknowledgements The North-East Nigeria Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (RPBA) was undertaken by the Federal Government of the Republic of Nigeria, led by the Office of the Vice President and the State Gov- ernments of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe. The assessment was supported by the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and The World Bank (WB). The Government of Nigeria Core RPBA Team consisted of Dr. Mari- am Masha, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Internally Displaced Persons and Focal Points from the six states, including: Maurice Vunobolki (Adamawa); Mohammed Aminu Ibrahim (Bau- chi); Dr. Baba Gana Umara (Borno); Aliyu M. Kamara (Gombe); Jeji Williams (Taraba); and Muhammad Yusufari (Yobe). The strong support and the contributions of the many different national stakeholders was remarkable. The dedication of the RPBA teams from the Federal and State Governments and three institutions was exceptional. Special thanks go to the Federal and State Govern- ments, the EU, UN and WB, and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) for financial support pro- vided for this assessment. In addition thanks to the EU for funding the design and layout of this document. The efforts of all made this report possible. The design and layout of this document was created and executed by the team at Bivee Inc. **Photo Credits:** Damie Okulaja (cover, 4, 7, 12, 23, 27, 58, 60, 62) Shahrzad Mobasher Fard (53) VOLUME I : SYNTHESIS REPORT RECOVERY AND PEACE BUILDING ASSESSMENT VII NORTH-EAST NIGERIA FOREWORD Professor Yemi Osinbajo SAN, GCON Vice President, Federal Republic of Nigeria Since 2009, insecurity in the North-East of Nigeria has led to the loss of over 20,000 lives and the displacement of over 2 million people.
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