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REQUIEM for DONBAS Three Essays on the Costs of War in Ukraine
JOHANNES KEPLER UNIVERSITY LINZ Altenberger Str. 69 4040 Linz, Austria www.jku.at, DVR 0093696 REQUIEM FOR DONBAS Three Essays on the Costs of War in Ukraine By Artem Kochnev A Doctoral Thesis submitted at Department of Economics to obtain the academic degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Doctoral Program “PhD Program in Economics” Supervisor and First Examiner Second Examiner em. Univ-Prof. Dr. Michael Landesmann Dr. habil. rer. soc. oec. Robert Stehrer May 2020 Abstract The thesis investigates short- and long-term effects of war on the economy of Ukraine. Specifically, it discusses the impact of separatists’ control and subsequent adverse trade policies on the real economy, responses of stock market investors to battle events, and the effect of conflict intensity on reform progress and institutional change in Ukraine. The thesis finds that the impact of war on the economy is most pronounced on the real economy of the war-torn regions. Whereas separatists’ control caused a decline in economic activity by at least 38%, the thesis does not find evidence supporting that the impact of conflict intensity on asset prices and institutional change in Ukraine was linear in parameters. The thesis explains the lack of the linear relationship between asset price move- ments and conflict intensity by investors’ inattention caused by information overload during the early stages of the conflict. Regarding the possible relationship between con- flict and institutional change, the thesis argues that it was electoral competition, not the conflict dynamics, that had an impact on the decision-making process of the policymak- ers in Ukraine. -
Daily Insight Ukrproduct and XXI Century in the Spotlight
Focus UKRAINE Scope CAPITAL MARKETS Daily Insight Ukrproduct and XXI Century in the spotlight THURSDAY, 30 APRIL, 2009 RESEARCH INSIGHT Market comment Key rates and indices (as of 29 Apr 2009) Last Daily YTD FX and capital markets yesterday chg1 (%) chg1 (%) The hryvnia weakened towards 8.07/USD as of the end of yesterday after trading Currencies within a thin bound of 8.05-8.07/USD most of the day, according to the Reuters USD/UAH (spot) 8.0700 1.38 3.46 data. The equities shifted broadly higher yesterday, as the PFTS index closed up USD/UAH (1Y NDF) 11.5000 0.00 -14.18 at 333.72 points, up 3.67% compared to the previous session. EUR/USD (spot) 1.3263 0.91 -5.12 Money market Equity market KievPRIME O/N (%) 2.20 20bp -2,078bp KievPRIME 1M (%) 17.10 0bp -668bp XXIC seeks to postpone Eurobond put date to 8 July, 2009 Bond markets As part of its US$175m Eurobond restructuring efforts, XXIC held a conference EMBI+ Ukraine 1,884 0.27 580.14 Equity markets call on 23 April to discuss the proposed restructuring terms. The outcome was PFTS (Ukraine) 333.72 3.67 10.72 twofold: 1) the bondholders representing US$135m in aggregate principal RTS (Russia) 814.78 3.92 28.94 amount have expressed in writing their intention to exercise their put option; and WIG (Poland) 28,273.93 3.50 3.84 2) the bondholders representing the majority of the principal amount have S&P 500 (USA) 873.64 2.16 -3.28 suggested that the company seek a “standstill” to postpone the put exercise date Note: 1) percentage change if not otherwise stated. -
Reforms in Ukraine After Revolution of Dignity
REFORMS IN UKRAINE AFTER REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY What was done, why not more and what to do next This publicaon was produced with financial Responsibility for the informaon and views set out assistance from the EBRD-Ukraine Stabilisaon and in this publicaon lies enrely with the authors. The Sustainable Growth Mul-Donor Account, the EBRD makes no representaon or warranty, express donors of which are Denmark, Finland, France, or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, informaon set forth in the publicaon. The EBRD Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, has not independently verified any of the informaon the United States of America and the European contained in the publicaon and the EBRD accepts Union, the largest donor. The views expressed herein no liability whatsoever for any of the informaon can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion contained in the publicaon or for any misstatement of the EBRD or any donor of the account. or omission therein. The publicaon remains the property of the EBRD. REFORMS IN UKRAINE AFTER REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY What was done, why not more and what to do next Editors Ivan Miklos Pavlo Kukhta Contents Foreword 4 Introducon What was done, why not more and what to do next: Ukrainian reforms aer the Revoluon of Dignity 7 Chapter 1 Polical economy of reforms: polical system, governance and corrupon 10 Chapter 2 Macroeconomic policies 35 Chapter 3 Rule of law 48 Chapter 4 Energy policy 75 Chapter 5 Business environment 87 Chapter 6 Land reform 101 Chapter 7 Privasaon and SOE reform 112 Chapter 8 Healthcare reform 132 Chapter 9 Ukraine and the European Union 144 Annex 1 Report on reforms in 2016-17 162 Annex 2 The role of the government and MPs in reform implementaon in Ukraine 167 About SAGSUR (Strategic Advisory Group for Support of Ukrainian Reforms) 173 Glossary of terms 174 Foreword Foreword | 4 Foreword Maeo Patrone and Peter M. -
BWN One Column Study
Dusting off Ukraine's energy sector Why the country must address inefficiency and pollution at its ageing coal-fired power plants September 2014 Authors list: Ioana Ciuta, CEE Bankwatch Network Ionut Apostol, CEE Bankwatch Network Acknowledgements: Oleg Savitsky, National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Slavka Kutsay, National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Editing: David Hoffman, CEE Bankwatch Network Layout: Sven Haertig-Tokarz, CEE Bankwatch Network This publication has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of CEE Bankwatch Network and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. Why Ukraine must address inefficiency and pollution at its ageing coal-fired power plants 1 Contents Main findings........................................................................... 2 Power generation .................................................................... 4 Electricity production............................................................... 5 Coal – a pillar of Ukraine's energy sector................................. 6 Emissions from coal-fired power plants.................................. 7 Electricity trade........................................................................ 11 Policy avenues......................................................................... 12 Adoption of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2030... 12 Ukraine in the Energy Community................................... 12 Zooming in -
Impact of Political Course Shift in Ukraine on Stock Returns
IMPACT OF POLITICAL COURSE SHIFT IN UKRAINE ON STOCK RETURNS by Oleksii Marchenko A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MA in Economic Analysis Kyiv School of Economics 2014 Thesis Supervisor: Professor Tom Coupé Approved by ___________________________________________________ Head of the KSE Defense Committee, Professor Irwin Collier __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ Date ___________________________________ Kyiv School of Economics Abstract IMPACT OF POLITICAL COURSE SHIFT IN UKRAINE ON STOCK RETURNS by Oleksii Marchenko Thesis Supervisor: Professor Tom Coupé Since achieving its independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has faced the problem which regional block to integrate in. In this paper an event study is used to investigate investors` expectations about winners and losers from two possible integration options: the Free Trade Agreement as a part of the Association Agreement with the European Union and the Custom Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The impact of these two sudden shifts in the political course on stock returns is analyzed to determine the companies which benefit from each integration decisions. No statistically significant impact on stock returns could be detected. However, our findings suggest a large positive reaction of companies` stock prices to the dismissal of Yanukovych regime regardless of company`s trade orientation and political affiliation. -
Weekly Market Monitor June 7, 2021
Weekly Market Monitor June 7, 2021 Stock Market Update STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE Equity UX Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index* 2,000 Kyiv-listed equities ended mixed last week amid a generally dry news flow, as business activity began to slow down in the country due to 1,800 the approach of the summer season. The UX index shed 1.2% to close 1,600 at 1944 points. Lightweight index component DonbasEnergo (DOEN) 1,400 plunged by 27% to UAH 17.10 as market players saw a significant 1,200 delay in the company’s announced modernization of its power unit 1,000 #6 at Slavyansk Thermal Power Plant. CentrEnergo (CEEN) corrected Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 May-21 by 6.3% to UAH 9.00. Raiffeisen Bank Aval (BAVL) declined by 1.6% * rebased to 44.10 kopecks ahead of the ex-rights date on Jun 8 for a dividend MARKET INDEXES payout of 3.31 kopecks per share. On the upside, UkrNafta (UNAF) Last 1W ch YTD gained 1.9% to UAH 314 and TurboAtom (TATM) added by 1.6% to UX 1944 -1.2% 20.2% UAH 8.20. As we reported earlier, the ex-rights date for UkrNafta’s RTS 1647 2.7% 18.7% UAH 35.62 dividend per share was set on Jun 11. WIG20 2254 0.8% 13.0% MSCI EM 1381 1.5% 7.0% In political developments, Parliament approved a bill that restored S&P 500 4229 0.4% 12.6% criminal responsibility for officials who provide false information on their income declarations. -
Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine Is the Main Executive Au- ‣‣Thority Overseeing and Regulating the Power Sector
Contents FOREWORD 2 SOE PORTFOLIO: SNAPSHOT 4 OBJECTIVES AND STRUCTURE 5 OVERVIEW OF SOE REFORM IN UKRAINE 6 EFFECTIVE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK OF SOEs IN UKRAINE 20 UKRAINIAN ECONOMY 33 OVERVIEW OF PORTFOLIO RESULTS 38 ELECTRICITY 46 OIL & GAS 61 TRANSPORTATION 71 RAILWAYS 73 ROADS 78 AIRPORTS 82 SEA PORTS 88 POSTAL SERVICES 94 MACHINE BUILDING 98 FOOD & AGRICULTURE 113 CHEMICALS 129 COAL MINING 137 BANKING 143 COMPANY PROFILES 153 Agrarian Fund 154 Antonov 155 Centrenergo 156 Coal of Ukraine 157 Electrovazhmash 158 Energoatom 159 Illichivsk Sea Commercial Port 160 Kharkiv State Aviation Enterprise 161 Kharkivoblenergo 162 Khmelnytskoblenergo 163 Kyiv Boryspil 164 Lviv Danylo Halytskyi International Airport 165 Mariupol Sea Commercial Port 166 Mykolayivoblenergo 167 Naftogaz of Ukraine 168 Odesa Commercial Sea Port 169 Odesa Portside Plant 170 Roads of Ukraine 171 State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine 172 Sumykhimprom 173 Turboatom 174 Ukrainian Sea Ports Administration 175 Ukrainian State Air Traffic Enterprise 176 Ukrenergo 177 Ukrhydroenergo 178 Ukrposhta 179 Ukrspyrt 180 Ukrzaliznytsia 181 Yuzhny Sea Trade Port 182 Zaporizhyaoblenergo 183 METHODOLOGY NOTE 184 SOE PORTFOLIO 186 ABBREVIATIONS AND DEFINITIONS 191 002 UKRAINE’S TOP-100 STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES › FULL YEAR 2014 Foreword This is the second report on Ukraine’s 100 largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dis- closing their results for the full 2014. Public disclosure of such information is part of the Ukrainian government’s commitment to bring transparency to the SOE sector and communicate the change to the Ukrainian people, local and international investors, and various other stakeholders who want to see Ukraine succeed on the reform path. -
OLEKSANDR POLONYK (SASHA), Associate
OLEKSANDR POLONYK (SASHA), Associate Oleksandr Polonyk is an associate in the Corporate Department. He focuses on public and private M&A deals, securities offerings and other corporate transactions. Before joining Jenner & Block, Mr. Polonyk practiced law at a top-tier law firm in Ukraine. He represented clients in M&A transactions, IPOs, Eurobond issuances, as well as debt restructurings. He has substantial experience advising clients in the banking, IT, energy, and agriculture sectors. IFLR (Energy and Infrastructure 2016) commended him for his “invaluable can-do attitude.” Mr. Polonyk is fluent in Russian and Ukrainian. Mr. Polonyk’s representative experience in M&A includes the following: OLEKSANDR POLONYK Advised General Dynamics Corporation on its $9.7 billion acquisition of (SASHA) CSRA Inc. Associate Advised Snyder’s-Lance, Inc. on its $6.1 billion sale to Campbell Soup NEW YORK Company Office: 212 891-1684 Email: [email protected] Advised a lead investor on its investment in a developer and operator of greenhouse farms located near major metropolitan areas PRACTICE GROUPS Corporate Advised Altran Technologies SA, an engineering and technology consulting Corporate Finance Mergers & Acquisitions company, on the acquisition of Lohika Systems Inc, a software engineering Securities services firm EDUCATION Advised a Fortune Global 500 company on the acquisition of renewable New York University School of Law, LLM in Corporate Law, 2017 assets in Ukraine Utrecht University School of Law, LLM in Advised on the EUR122 million acquisition -
EAVEX Daily ENG Oct 13.Indd
Market Monitor October 13, 2011 Market Update STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE Equity UX Index RTS Index* WIG 20 Index* 2,500 Local stocks again lagged strong gains seen on European bourses on 2,250 Wednesday (Oct 12), as Ukraine continued to receive a dressingdown from EU leaders over the conviction of former PM Yulia Tymoshenko. 2,000 The approval by Slovakia’s parliament of an increase in the EU’s bank 1,750 bailout fund fueled a rise of more than 2% in Frankfurt and Paris, 1,500 while the UX index managed a gain of only 0.5% to 1,327 points. The 1,250 11-Jul 25-Jul 8-Aug 22-Aug 5-Sep 19-Sep 3-Oct day’s best performer was volume leader Motor Sich, which added * rebased 1.5% on turnover of UAH 13mn. Other top liquid names, including CentrEnergo, Alchevsk Steel, Azovstal, and Ukrsotsbank, were up MARKET INDEXES by between 0.5% and 1%. In London, Ferrexpo continued its strong Last 1D ch 1M ch YTD rebound on fading global recession fears, picking up another 7.9% to UX 1326.4 0.7% 12.7% 45.7% RTS 1407.8 3.9% 13.4% 20.5% USD 3.30. WIG20 2316.7 2.4% 3.0% 15.6% MSCI EM 923.2 1.5% 7.0% 19.8% Fixed Income S&P 500 1207.3 1.0% 4.6% 4.0% Ukrainian sovereign Eurobonds saw a broad rebound on Wednesday. Ukrainian midterm Eurobonds added 2.0p.p. 84.0/88.0 UX INTRADAY OCTOBER 12, 2011 (10.70%/9.58%), while longterms rose by 4.0p.p. -
Raiffeisen Centrobank AG Notice to the Holders of the Structured
The securities issues of Raiffeisen Centrobank AG are subject to these General Securities Terms. The Final Terms (see Chapter VI of the Base Prospectus of 21 July 2006) will contain any supplementary information specific to the individual securities. Raiffeisen Centrobank AG retains the right to change these Securities Terms. SECURITIES TERMS (to FT No. 151 of 23rd April 2007) of Raiffeisen Centrobank AG for Open End Investment Certificates (see Final Terms, line 1) § 1 Investor Rights 1. Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Tegetthoffstraße 1, 1010 Vienna ("Issuer") issues as of 6th June 2007 (see FT, line 34) a total volume of up to [see column “Volume” in the excerpt of the offering, see FT, line 43) pieces Open End Investment Certificates (see FT, line 1) pursuant to these Securities Terms, ISIN [see column “ISIN Product” on the excerpt of the offering; FT, line 2] (see FT, line 2) on the Eastbasket Ukraine Kazakhstan [see column “Underlying Instrument (UL)” in the excerpt of the offering; FT, line 11-13). 2. The structured security entitles the holder the right to claim redemption pursuant to § 9. 3. The structured securities are listed on an exchange and can be traded continuously in denominations of one (see FT, line 45) or a multiple thereof on every exchange trading day on the exchange and over the counter. Securities not listed on an exchange can be traded continuously over the counter. 4. The issuance of structured securities is done in the form of a continuous issue. 5. The issue price of the securities is fixed taking into account several different factors (e.g. -
Weeklyoverview
UKRAINIAN EQUITY MARKET:: WEEKLY OVERVIEW Parex Asset Management 5–6 JANUARY 2010 Republikas laukums 2a, Riga, Latvia, LV-1522 Lidiya Mudra, Financial Analyst Tel. 371 67010810 Fax. 371 67778622 http://www.parexgroup.com Email: [email protected] Equity Market The Ukrainian major exchanges started the year on a PFTS Index positive note, with PFTS index gaining 3.82% and UX 700 adding 5.09% during holiday-shortened trading week. PFTS In the metallurgical sector, the Financial Times has last week: informed that an unnamed Russian group is close to 650 buying control of the Ukrainian metallurgical +3.82% corporation Industrial Union of Donbas (IUD). According to FT, the “50%+2 shares” stake in the IUD 600 might be sold by the end of January for up to $2b. 06-Jan-10: Later in the week, Oleksandr Pilipenko, a vice 594.80 550 president within the IUD group, revealed in a Oct Nov Dec Jan statement that one of its new owners is Swiss-based steel trader Carbofer, itself co-owned by Russian below.) businessman Alexander Katunin. At the same time, In the agricultural sector, Ukraine's leading sugar PFTS index gained he did not name the others Mr. Katunin’s partners, producer Astarta Holding released 2009 operational 3.82% and UX revealing only that “none of the new owners would results. In 2009, Astarta produced more than 225ths added 5.09% during have more than a 20% stake”. There were given no tonnes of sugar (-4.5% y/y) that allowed the company the week figures for the value of the deal in the statement. -
RESTRICTED WT/TPR/S/334 15 March 2016
RESTRICTED WT/TPR/S/334 15 March 2016 (16-1479) Page: 1/163 Trade Policy Review Body TRADE POLICY REVIEW REPORT BY THE SECRETARIAT UKRAINE This report, prepared for the first Trade Policy Review of Ukraine, has been drawn up by the WTO Secretariat on its own responsibility. The Secretariat has, as required by the Agreement establishing the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (Annex 3 of the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization), sought clarification from Ukraine on its trade policies and practices. Any technical questions arising from this report may be addressed to Cato Adrian (tel: 022/739 5469); and Thomas Friedheim (tel: 022/739 5083). Document WT/TPR/G/334 contains the policy statement submitted by Ukraine. Note: This report is subject to restricted circulation and press embargo until the end of the first session of the meeting of the Trade Policy Review Body on Ukraine. This report was drafted in English. WT/TPR/S/334 • Ukraine - 2 - CONTENTS SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 7 1 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................................ 11 1.1 Main Features .......................................................................................................... 11 1.2 Economic Developments ............................................................................................ 11 1.3 Developments in Trade .............................................................................................