#2 (96) February 2016 Why Minsk process New economic priorities History of Islam is stalling for Ukraine in Western Ukraine WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM Featuring selected content from The Economist FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS | 3 BRIEFING 31 Special privileges: 4 A cold shower for Mr. President: What trouble the EU may How the current political store for itself in shaping crisis emerged a deal to suit British interests 7 Denys Kazanskyi on miners’ 32 Róbert Ondrejcsák: strikes in the occupied «Visegrad countries need parts of the Donbas to support Ukraine in its NATO- POLITICS integration in case your country will decide to follow this path» 8 Roman Bezsmertnyi: Director of the Centre for “We must get prepared for European and North Atlantic a serious and long-term Affairs on strategic goals of V4 confrontation with Russia” and cooperation with Ukraine Ukraine’s envoy to the Trilateral SOCIETY Contact Group in Minsk on the causes of the crisis in the peace process 34 An unloved child: and Ukraine’s further actions What saved Mykolayiv from separatism ECONOMICS 36 The Black Sea outpost: 12 Placing accents in the right places: How political preferences changed What is the potential of the three in Kherson Oblast since the priority sectors of Ukraine’s economy? first years of independence 15 State support and golden loaves: and after the Maidan Things in common between the 38 Kateryna Barabash on Ukraine promotion of economic development, in the eyes of Russian liberals corruption and paternalism in Ukraine HISTORY 18 On a cold road to savings: 40 Traces of Islam in Western Ukraine: What hampers Ukraine’s transition The origins and the history of the to energy efficiency Muslim community in Volyn CULTURE & ARTS FOCUS 44 What’s that Tevye was listening to? 20 Breaking out of hollow rhetoric: World-famous klezmer music has What makes Ukrainians vulnerable many traditions and roots in Ukraine to populism 46 Gerardo Ángel Bugallo Ottone 24 The evolution of political and Tamara Zabala Utrillas: doublespeak: “Zarzuela is a very good way to The history of populism understand the diversity of Spain” in the years of independence Spanish Ambassador and Counsel on NEIGHBOURS Cultural Issues on cultural diplomacy 26 The breaking point: 50 Love through music, How the EU has changed in 60 years films and paintings: 28 Thoughts on the future: The Ukrainian Week offers Experts comment on how they see a selection of events to attend the EU dealing with the current crises in February and March E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-87 The Ukrainian Week #2 (96) February 2016 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Anna Korbut, Lidia Wolanskyj #2 (96) February 2016 | THE UKRAINIAN WEEK THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #2 (96) February 2016 BRIEFING A cold shower for Mr. President Bohdan Butkevych n the last week, Bankova and the President personally suffered a number of very painful blows that, while they may not completely changed the political situation in Ukraine, might seriously weaken IPetro Poroshenko’s position. Moreover, the blows came from within and from outside: wobbles within the ruling party and the tone of ultimatum coming from international partners showed that the country is now in a political crisis that can no longer be swept under the rug of war. The bombshell that came with the resignation of Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius and his accusations directed at Ihor Kononenko, the President’s closest adviser and personal friend, was a very cold shower for Petro Poroshenko. It was not just a matter of loss of repu- tation, but the fact that the Lithuanian expat had effectively blown up PHOTO BY UNIAN BY PHOTO #2 (96) February 2016 | THE UKRAINIAN WEEK 6 | BRIEFING Bankova’s carefully-wrought plans to tame Premier Poroshenko Bloc is hardly the monolithic entity that Arseniy Yatseniuk. Plans were for the next Govern- Party of the Regions was under Viktor Yanukovych, ment report to tear his performance to shred, after more than one deputy is likely to use this as a digni- which the President would have the complete right fied excuse to leave the faction, starting with the Anti- and enough votes in the Verkhovna Rada to complete- Corruption Platform and the FPTP members, to avoid ly reshuffle the Cabinet—in his own favor. And then damaging their own political images by remaining in Yatseniuk would have found himself a king without a a ruling party that is growing more and more compro- kingdom. In the kamikaze team, the number of Presi- mised. dent’s men would have significantly increased and it To throw Kononenko to the wolves, however, would become a coalition in name only. would also make the President vulnerable because But when Abromavicius announced that Ko- Kononenko is for Poroshenko even more than Azarov nonenko and the Presidential Administration were was for Yanukovych. This is a friend from army days, trying to take over a number of top state enterprises a business colleague—and a witness who knows too and pushing for Andriy Pasishnyk as deputy economy much to be simply tossed from the game. Nor is there minister, everything went topsy-turvy. The President anyone who could replace him in the President’s inner no longer had any moral basis for attacking Yatseniuk, circle. Right now, Poroshenko needs his own man in not to mention that the scandal over Ihor Kononenko this position more than ever. hit the Head of State himself. Until recently, most ac- In addition to all this, there’s another aspect to the cusations of corruption tended to leveled at the Head trap Bankova finds itself in, the international one. The of Government, now all the anger and suspicion were departure of Abromavicius and his revelations of cor- shifted to the President. ruption raised severe criticisms against Poroshenko The consequences of the economy minister’s res- among the country’s western allies. This is especially ignation were not long in coming. On Monday, Febru- true of the US, which is clearly fed up with the imita- ary 8, Yehor Firsov, a one-time UDAR member who tion of reform and Bankova’s constant machinations had always had his own opinion of matters, quit the to take over all levers of power. Indeed, the G7 am- Petro Poroshenko Bloc faction. He had long been in a bassadors made it very clear to the President that any tight clinch with the Presidential guard: Kononenko, Cabinet shuffle, snap election or attempts to increase Berezenko, Hranovskiy, and Tetriakov, the head of Poroshenko’s powers would be frowned upon. And if the faction in the Rada. As a member of the so-called Poroshenko should not agree with any of this, all he Anti-Corruption Platform within the Poroshenko needs to do is remember the next IMF tranche and the Bloc, he refused to be associated with Kononenko’s hole in his budget. corrupt scheming and to be in one faction with him. As a result, the President was forced to back down. But what angered one of the youngest elected depu- The West appears to also be growing irritated as it ties the most was that his colleagues refused to vote sees Poroshenko’s behavior become more like Ya- to remove Kononenko from his seat in the legislature. nukovych’s. The Donetsk “proffessor” had his Family, They either did not notice or did not want to notice while the Vinnytsia candy king has his “Dear Friends the corrupt component in the behavior of one of the 2.0,” where, instead of a son, an army buddy is in Bloc’s leaders. charge. And so it will not let him usurp power. The four other ministers who resigned with Abro- mavicius withdrew their letters of resignation and A SNAP ELECTION COULD FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE Yatseniuk proudly stated to the effect that “we came THE SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY, BUT MOST LIKELY together and we will only leave together.” It’s a rhe- torical pose that the Premier has tirelessly resorted to THE PRESIDENT WILL DO EVERYTHING IN HIS POWER since the days on the Maidan. But the residue remains: TO PREVENT IT AT LEAST DURING 2016 the central figure, Aivaras Abromavicius neither with- drew his resignation nor dropped his accusations. And so the government was unable to whitewash itself in Mere hours after Firsov, another BPP member, this situation. muckraking journalist Serhiy Leshchenko, published A snap election could fundamentally change the a series of text messages between Abromavicius and situation in the country, but most likely the President Pasishnyk that clearly confirmed the minister’s ac- will do everything in his power to prevent it at least cusations: Kononenko really was trying to push his during 2016. But the longer it is postponed, the more own people into positions that offered “opportuni- catastrophic the consequences will be for the Petro ties.” However, Leshchenko did not go so far as to Poroshenko Bloc, as it already appears to be going the leave the faction just yet, nor did the rest of the “anti- way of Yatseniuk’s Narodniy Front... from victory to corruptionists,” like Mustafa Nayem and Svitlana Za- support that has waned to the range of the margin of lishchuk. Still, the presidential councils were visibly error. Most other parties are very keen to see a snap shaken. Understandably, these deputies are aware election called, and the more PPB falls apart, the more that they will have to follow Firsov.