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VOL. 50 NO. 1 SPRING 2020 PARAMETERS (USPS 869) VOL. 50 NO. 1 SPRING 2020 US Army War College ATTN: Parameters 47 Ashburn Drive Carlisle, PA 17013-5238 Periodicals Postage Paid PARAMETERS Contemporary Strategy & Landpower Special Commentary: #FakeNews in #NatSec Amanda B. Cronkhite, Wenshuo Zhang, and Leslie Caughell Civil-Military Relations John C. Binkley Zachary E. Griffiths Adapting to Adaptive Adversaries Jean-Loup C. Samaan Ashley Neese-Bybee, Paul Clarke, and Alexander Noyes Strategic Lieutenants Part II Carsten F. Roennfeldt Dorthe Bach Nyemann and Jørgen Staun The US Army War College The Quarterly FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VISIT US AT https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu Secretary of the Army Mr. Ryan D. McCarthy Chief of Staff of the Army General James C. McConville Commandant Director, SSI & USAWC Press Editor in Chief Major General John S. Kem Dr. Isaiah Wilson III Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II Contributing Editors Dr. Tami Davis Biddle Dr. Jacqueline N. Deal Prof. Patrick Porter US Army War College, DNSS Long Term Strategy Group, LLC University of Exeter Dr. Hal Brands Dr. Steven K. Metz Dr. Patricia M. Shields Johns Hopkins University US Army War College, SSI Texas State University Editorial Board Members Dr. Anne Louise Antonoff Dr. Paul Rexton Kan Dr. Sibylle Scheipers Marine Corps University US Army War College, DNSS University of St. Andrews Dr. Robert J. Bunker Dr. Richard Krickus Dr. Andrew C. Scobell US Army War College, SSI University of Mary Washington RAND Corporation (Professor Emeritus) Mr. Jeffery L. Caton Dr. Kalev Sepp Kepler Strategies, LLC Dr. Genevieve Lester Naval Postgraduate School US Army War College Dr. Samuel Charap Dr. Luis Simón RAND Corporation Dr. Matthew C. Mason Vrije Universiteit Brussel US Army War College, SSI Murray R. Clark, COL Dr. Anna Simons (USAF Retired) Dr. Montgomery McFate Naval Postgraduate School Naval War College At Large Dr. Emile Simpson Dr. Conrad C. Crane, LTC Dr. Jennifer Mittelstadt Harvard, Belfer Center for Rutgers University Science and International Affairs (USA Retired) Military History Institute Dr. Andrew Monaghan Dr. Don M. Snider Chatham House US Army War College, SSI Prof. Audrey Kurth Cronin American University Dr. Matthew Pinsker John F. Troxell, COL Dickinson College Mark J. Eshelman, COL (USA Retired) At Large (USA Retired) Dr. George E. Reed, COL US Army War College, DDE (USA Retired) Bert B. Tussing, COL University of Colorado, (USMC, Retired) Lee K. Grubbs Colorado Springs US Army Training and US Army War College, CSL Doctrine Command Dr. Bettina Renz Dr. Marybeth P. Ulrich University of Nottingham Dr. Stéfanie von Hlatky US Army War College, DNSS Queen’s University, Centre for Dr. Thomas Rid Dr. Katarzyna Zysk International and Defence Policy King’s College London Norwegian Institute for Dr. An Jacobs Dr. Nadia Schadlow Defence Studies Nottingham Trent University Smith Richardson Foundation Parameters is an official US Army Periodical, published quarterly by the US Army War College. The Secretary of the Army has determined that publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business as required by law of the Department. Use of funds for printing this publication has been approved by the Secretary of the Army in accordance with Army regulations. Disclaimer: Articles and reviews published in Parameters are unofficial expressions of opinion. The views and opinions expressed inParameters are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the US Army War College, or any other agency of the US government. Vol. 50 No. 1 • Spring 2020 3 From the Editor FEATURES Special Commentary 5 #FakeNews in #NatSec: Handling Misinformation Amanda B. Cronkhite, Wenshuo Zhang, and Leslie Caughell Civil-Military Relations 23 Revisiting the 2006 Revolt 39 Are Retired Flag Officers of the Generals Overparticipating in the John C. Binkley Political Process? Zachary E. Griffiths Adapting to Adaptive Adversaries 51 Missiles, Drones, and the 65 Defense Institution Houthis in Yemen Building in Africa Jean-Loup C. Samaan Ashley Neese-Bybee, Paul Clarke, and Alexander Noyes Strategic Lieutenants Part II 79 Norway’s Strategic Lieutenants 91 Denmark’s Strategic Lieutenants Carsten F. Roennfeldt Dorthe Bach Nyemann and Jørgen Staun COMMENTARY AND REPLY 105 On “Civil-Military Relations and 109 The Author Replies Today’s Policy Environment” Thomas N. Garner George J. Fust 2 Parameters 50(1) Spring 2020 BOOK REVIEWS Defense Studies 113 Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence 115 White House Warriors: How the National through Local Agents Security Council Transformed the Edited by Eli Berman and David A. Lake American Way of War Reviewed by Robert J. Bunker By John Gans Reviewed by Jesse B. Burnette 116 The Fighters: Americans in Combat in 118 Anatomy of Post-Communist European Afghanistan and Iraq Defense Institutions: The Mirage of By C. J. Chivers Military Modernity Reviewed by Nathan K. Finney By Thomas-Durell Young Reviewed by Pierre Jolicoeur 121 Landpower in the Long War, Projecting Force After 9/11 Edited by Jason W. Warren, foreword by Daniel P. Bolger Reviewed by Matthew D. Morton Military History 124 Lords of the Desert: The Battle between 126 Fighting Means Killing: Civil War Soldiers the United States and Great Britain for and the Nature of Combat Supremacy in the Modern Middle East By Jonathan M. Steplyk By James Barr Reviewed by Phillip Cuccia Reviewed by Christopher J. Bolan 128 How to Think about War: An Ancient Guide 130 Major General George H. Sharpe and the to Foreign Policy Creation of American Military Intelligence By Thucydides, edited by Johanna Hanink in the Civil War Reviewed by Kerney M. Perlik By Peter G. Tsouras Reviewed by Wylie W. Johnson 132 The Hall of Mirrors: War and Warfare in the Twentieth Century By Jim Storr Reviewed by David Ulbrich From the Editor in Chief Our Spring issue opens with a Special Commentary entitled “#FakeNews in #NatSec: Handling Misinformation,” by Amanda Cronkhite, Wenshuo Zhang, and Leslie Caughell. The authors use an agent-based modeling method to achieve a better understanding of how misinformation spreads in different types of networks. Policies that promote increased media literacy or other preemptive measures, they argue, are more effective than those that address misinformation after the fact, such as fact-checking or labeling fake news. This issue’s first forum, Civil-Military Relations, features two articles. John Binkley’s “Revisiting the 2006 Revolt of the Generals” examines public criticism of the Bush Administration’s handling of the Iraq War in the summer of 2006 by retired general/flag officers. This criticism, Binkley claims, constitutes a new era in civil-military relations that permits active involvement in public debate by retired senior military officers. Zachary Griffiths’s “Are Retired Flag Officers Overparticipating in the Political Process?” contends the active participation of retired generals and admirals does little harm to US democratic institutions or to the nonpartisan reputation of the US military. Our second forum, Adapting to Adaptive Adversaries, includes two contributions. In “Missiles, Drones, and the Houthis in Yemen” Jean-Loup Samaan describes how, during the war in Yemen in 2015, the Houthis transformed from a local insurgent group to a nonstate actor able to defy regional powers. The conflict offers important lessons regarding the growing accessibility and affordability of sophisticated weapons’ systems and their usefulness to violent extremist groups. In “Defense Institution Building in Africa,” Ashley Neese-Bybee, Paul Clarke, and Alexander Noyes discuss tools and processes for developing successful defense institutions in low-capacity, high-threat African states. The final forum, Strategic Lieutenants (Part II), adds substantively to the debate regarding how strategically sensitive company-grade officers must be. If the need for strategic-minded officers has indeed increased since the end of the Cold War, it is worth asking how the West’s military academies have adjusted to the demand. Carsten Roennfeldt’s “Norway’s Strategic Lieutenants” maintains the Norwegian Military Academy has achieved success with a method of instruction that fuses the Lykke model of military strategy with the Toulmin model of argumentation. In “Denmark’s Strategic Lieutenants,” Dorthe Bach Nyemann and Jørgen Staun describe how the training curriculum of the Royal Danish Military Academy routinely produces lieutenants capable of bearing complex leadership responsibilities in fluid operating environments. ~AJE SPECIAL COMMENTARY #FakeNews in #NatSec: Handling Misinformation Amanda B. Cronkhite, Wenshuo Zhang, and Leslie Caughell ©2020 Amanda B. Cronkhite, Wenshuo Zhang, and Leslie Caughell ABSTRACT: Adapting an epidemiological model for studying the spread of viral infections, we use agent-based modeling (ABM) to simulate how misinformation spreads in different network types. Our results indicate policies that address misinformation after the fact, such as fact-checking or labeling fake news, will not be as useful as policies promoting increased media literacy or other preemptive measures. ome people are more susceptible to misinformation than others, and some social environments are more conducive to Sthe spread of misinformation than others.1 We tested how a so-called mind virus—the Russian term for misinformation—moves through different populations. Our simulations found the propagation of misinformation is facilitated by individuals who believe