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PIIE Briefing 14-4: Lessons from Decades Lost: Economic Challenges and Opportunities Facing Japan and the United States

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PIIE Briefing 14-4: Lessons from Decades Lost: Economic Challenges and Opportunities Facing Japan and the United States LESSONS FROM DECADES LOST ECONOMIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FACING JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES PIIE Briefi ng No. 14-4 DECEMBER 2014 CONTENTS PREFACE iii 1 AN AMERICan’s ASSESSMENT OF ABENOMICS AT MID-TERM 1 ADAM S. POSEN 2 JAPan’s LOST DECADES: STRUCTURAL CAUSES AND LESSONS 9 KYOJI FUKAO 3 SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC DEBT IN THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN 24 WILLIAM R. CLINE 4 COMPARING FISCAL PROBLEMS IN JAPAN AND THE UNITED STATES 43 TOKUO IWAISAKO 5 THE UNITED STATES, JAPAN, AND THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP 56 JEFFREY J. SCHOTT 6 MONETARY POLICY DURING JAPan’s GREAT RECESSION: FROM SELF-INDUCED 66 PARALYSIS TO ROOSEVELTIAN RESOLVE KENNETH KUTTNER 7 HIGH-LEVEL PANELS ON JAPAN-US COMMON ECONOMIC CHALLENGES 81 EVENT TRANSCRIPT Copyright © 2014 by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a private, nonprofit institution for rigorous, intellectually open, and indepth study and discussion of international economic policy. Its purpose is to identify and analyze important issues to making globalization beneficial and sustainable for the people of the United States and the world and then to develop and communicate practical new approaches for dealing with them. The Institute is widely viewed as nonpartisan. Its work is funded by a highly diverse group of philanthropic foundations, private corporations, and interested individuals, as well as income on its capital fund. About 35 percent of the Institute’s resources in its latest fiscal year were provided by contributors from outside the United States. A list of all financial supporters for the preceding four years is posted at http://piie.com/supporters.cfm. PREFACE From the early 1970s through the early 2000s, the Japan-US economic relationship was at the center of the global economy and of international policy making. With the ability of US growth seemingly to shrug off Japan’s persistent underperformance, the rise of the Chinese economy, and the preoccupation with the acute economic failures of the United States starting in 2008, the relationship lost salience on both sides of the Pacif- ic. This was, however, a mistake of misplaced priorities in both Tokyo and Washington. Together Japan and the United States still account for 20 percent of world GDP—more importantly, the two allies are bulwarks of the liberal economic order of rules-based and ever freer trade, respect for property rights, and multilateral lending and surveillance of the international fi nancial system. To continue to shape a peaceful world with maximum economic benefi t for all, but consistent with the two countries’ democratic values, the US-Japan alliance must be at least as active in the economic sphere as in national security matters. This is particularly critical for the successful integration of China into a position of responsible multilateral leadership of the world economy and the continued economic success and openness of Emerging Asia. With these policy goals in mind, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, and Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA came together in early 2014 to found the High-Level Work- ing Group on Japan-US Common Economic Challenges. This group is intended to provide an intellectually grounded and policy-engaged informal dialogue between infl uential voices in the United States and Japan regarding major economic issues that affect both economies and the international system. The distinguished membership consists primarily of individuals who have combined public service in senior policymaking or advisory roles with economic research during their careers and who previously have been directly engaged in Japan-US relations (the membership list follows). The group meets semiannually, once each in Tokyo and Washington, for intensive off-the-record discus- sion of current policy issues, and benefi ts from the presence of a rotating group of experts on specialized topics as well as commissioned background research (supported by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation). Select current senior offi cials in the United States, Japan, and international institutions are regularly invited to participate as guests or to address the group. The group does not issue joint statements or seek consensus, but rather pursues active exchange of views. When consensus does emerge, however, and is of substantive relevance for policymakers, the group will issue statements calling for action. This publication is the result of the fi rst meeting of the Working Group held in Washington, DC, on June 2 and 3, 2014, followed by a public discussion held at the Peterson Institute. Refl ecting current events, the meeting focused on Abenomics, monetary tightening in the United States, fi scal sustainability on both sides of the Pacifi c, and especially the bilateral Japan-US trade agenda needed to advance the Trans-Pacifi c Partnership negotiations. Subsequent exchange and review of the discussions as well as of the commissioned background iii PIIE BRIEFING 14-4 papers led to this fi nished document. We hope it stimulates further discussion between interested parties in Japan and the United States and provides additional ground for common understanding if not policy action. The next meeting of the Working Group will take place in Tokyo on December 18 and 19, 2014. While trade relations and Abenomics remain topics of concern, the agenda will also focus on innovation in energy supply and on the course of and spillovers from China’s growth slowdown. Jiro Hanyu Adam S. Posen Chairman President Sasakawa Peace Foundation Peterson Institute for International Economics iv PIIE BRIEFING 14-4 ABOUT THE ORGANIZATIONS The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a private, nonprofi t institution for rigorous, intel- lectually open, and in depth study and discussion of international economic policy. Its purpose is to identify and analyze important issues to making globalization benefi cial and sustainable for the people of the United States and the world and then to develop and communicate practical new approaches for dealing with them. The Institute is widely viewed as and is committed to be nonpartisan. Its audience includes government of- fi cials and legislators, business and labor leaders, management and staff at international organizations, uni- versity-based scholars and their students, other research institutions and nongovernmental organizations, the media, and the public at large. It addresses these groups globally from its base in Washington, DC. The Insti- tute’s staff of about 60 includes 20 senior researchers, as well as a dozen nonresident fellows, all distinguished for their combination of research productivity and policy experience. The Institute’s $12 million annual bud- get is provided by a wide range of supporters including a large and highly diversifi ed group of individuals, multinational companies, philanthropic foundations and public institutions from around the world, as well as from income on the Institute’s capital fund constituting over a quarter of current revenues. To learn more, please visit www.piie.com. The Sasakawa Peace Foundation is a nonprofi t Japanese public interest incorporated foundation with the mission of contributing to the welfare of humankind and the sound development of the international com- munity, and thus to world peace, by conducting activities fostering international understanding, exchange, and cooperation, as well as efforts to promote these activities. The Foundation undertakes surveys and re- search, develops human resources, invites and dispatches personnel, organizes international conferences and other forums, and conducts other activities fostering international understanding, exchange, and coopera- tion, as well as collects, disseminates, and propagates information in order to carry out these and other activi- ties necessary to accomplish the Foundation’s mission. More information can be found at www.spf.org/e. Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA is an independent American nonprofi t and nonpartisan institution de- voted to research, analysis, and better understanding of the US-Japan relationship. Sasakawa USA does this through programs that benefi t both nations and the broader Asia-Pacifi c region. Key issues addressed by our research programs include security, diplomacy, economics, trade, and technology. Outreach programs facili- tate people-to-people exchange and dialogue on these and other issues with American and Japanese policy- makers, infl uential citizens, and the broader public in both countries. Sasakawa USA has become a major hub for information, news, and commentary on US-Japan affairs, building relationships between current and fu- ture leaders of both countries and offering a venue for dialogue and discussion. For more information, please visit www.spfusa.org. v PIIE BRIEFING 14-4 Members of the High-Level Working Group on Japan-US Common Economic Challenges Japanese members Jiro Hanyu, Sasakawa Peace Foundation Kiyoto Ido, Institute for International Economic Studies Takatoshi Ito, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies and Columbia University Motoshige Itoh, University of Tokyo (Group Japan Co-Chair) Masahiro Kawai, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy Hideichi Okada, NTT Data Institute of Management and Consulting Koji Tanami, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Hiroshi Yoshikawa, University of Tokyo US members Richard Clarida, Columbia University Charles Collyns, Institute of International Finance Peter Fisher, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College Kristin
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